brian: north america, europe, and latin america are outpacing aipac, but to give you a point of reference, before the pandemic, half of our business was cross-border. the majority is people crossing borders or staying in cities. we've seen people not crossing borders and not traveling to cities. what we've now seen is that as borders start to reopen, when president biden visited ford, cross-border bookings into the united states were up 44% in one week. cross-border's are still restricted, but that means we think there will be a lot of pent-up demand. i think travel is one of the things that people miss the most and feel like has been taken away from them. i think you will see a lot more. emily: how do you see the mix of domestic and cross-border travel shifting as we move forward? brian: it will come back a bit. i don't think you will see the world looking like 2019. business travel will never come back to 2019 levels the way it was, people getting on airplanes for a meeting. there will be new types of business travel, people working remotely or going back to headquarters for weeks at a

natural gas futures higher by 300 percent in europe. in the u.k., up 200%, well off the highs of the year. we were up 700% on gas futures overseas. in the u.s., under control but still higher by 40%. coffee futures higher by 76% on a year-to-date basis. lumber futures, we saw the huge spike in january. it has come back down to earth but still higher by 59% for 2021. i want to pivot back to oil and bring in simon casey who leads coverage of the energy sector. when you look at the run-up in wti crude this year, a lot of people would say this is all about economic recovery. the reason we went to where we are today, that is all it was about. is there more to the story than just economic coverage? -- recovery? >> there is. i would give you three main things that will go into 2022. one is the economic recovery since the pandemic. the other big story, perhaps more important in some respects, is how opec-plus has a tight grip on the market. they have managed the supply extremely well. in 2020 in the first few months of the pandemic, oil prices

many markets in europe lighter volumes than usual, off as much as 90% on a some indices in europe. we are seeing s&p 500 futures near lows of this premarket session down more than 1/10 -- .1%. an area this seems to be protected is nasdaq 100 futures, those are basically unchanged. when we see small caps continue to decline, down .2%. it is the more economically sensitive type equities which are underperforming. this is a reversal from december. december, it has been the small caps that started to edge ahead of the large-cap stocks. that has not been the trend for the full year. when it comes to the bond market, things look sanguine as they have been for the year and volatility. bond markets not reacting too much. we do not have moves between 2, 10, and 30 year yields that are greater than one basis points. we see slight buying across the board. we are on track for treasuries to return to negative 2.5% this year, the first yearly decline since 2003. according to vanguard and blackrock, they think declines could continue next year as inflation eases. historically, losses are followed

the concern in europe has to do with supply. more lng shippers now helping to curb record high prices we have seen. but in the u.s., it is about cold weather. it is lot of the midwest that is particularly cold, so that means we are on track for nat gas to have its biggest rise in a year since 2016, so i hope you are prepared for your u.s. move with lots of parkas and blankets. matt: i am looking forward to it. kriti: he's loading up. matt: actually, i am wearing khakis and a blazer today. all week, i'm not wearing a full suit. that is my own personal protest. michael purves joins us, ceo of tallbacken capital advisors. for all we know, he might not be wearing pants, but i am pretty sure he is. michael, how are you doing? thank you so much for joining us. happy new year's eve to you. what do you make of this? it has been an incredible year for people long equities, up 28% , and the third year in array of big double-digit gains. can this continue? michael: i actually think it can. there's an instinctive national suspicion that you

we have been looking at better growth in europe, but not so great at one point. that is not actually quite completely legal and it will start to break down. >> you said apple and my ears perked up and you are saying that as you see the growth, big tech will perform pretty well at least in the short term into 2022. what happens the recovery trade that we were so confident into 2021, the recovery on the u.s. stock market, where did that go? sebastien: it is so much more attractive to north american equities and the competition for liquidity and it is most fascinating in the u.s.. they are innovating and managing and there is this belief in long-term, and that is inherent to these companies but also in the wider populations and european and asians because they happen much better than what we do. matt: sounds like we are getting cut off. great to get some time with you for new year's eve, thank you for joining us. sebastian talking to us about a year that was and the year we are looking forward to and we have less than 12 hours before 2022. the dax of course is close

and at that time i decided i would go back to europe. i lived in paris for a few years and then i came here. by then, my brand was bad, it wasn't discount stores, everybody had done everything. that was a difficult time for me to see because everything until then was great and wonderful even when it was not, it was still exciting. coming back and seeing the brand and the people in charge of the brand and they did not care. there was no spirit. there is no messaging. that was discouraging. at the same time, i also had cancer. i had cancer at the base of my tongue. i think it has something to do with the fact that i could not express myself. so i dealt with that and then i dealt with taking back my name and starting again. >> you started all over. that cap began to re-create things that you did before including the wrap dress. it turns out that it was more popular than it had been before. was that a surprise to you? >> in life it is just one day after another day. when you look back, you're surprised. when you're living it, the young woman

angela: considerable leverage over western europe and eastern europe as well. apart from lng and u.s. lng, this is what the u.s. and some of the european countries are trying to push, there is no alternative to russian gas. if it does not come the controversial nord stream 2 pipeline, it comes through other pipelines. as long as europe needs to import as much gas as it does and as long as it has not switched to other forms of energy, russia is still the crucial supplier. putin knows that and it does give him leverage. matt: excellent. trade to get some time with you. thanks for joining us. angela stent, georgetown university professor of government and foreign service. if you're going to be a professor of government and foreign service, georgetown university is probably your best choice to work. great knowledge, especially about vladimir putin. definitely recommend picking up that book. in terms of the market we continue to see the s&p writing over 4800, just over, but still a record. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: good thursday afternoon. we are back with our ex

we have not had this conversation properly for about 10 years in europe. maybe the data might backup the argument. matt: they also will have cover from the boe and eventually from the fed, as well. they could be in a position to raise rates. i'm not sure anyone would be in a position to call that as mario draghi and christine lagarde were changing seats. as you pointed out a few days ago, you also see economic growth in europe that people would not have expected previously, certainly not going into the pandemic. it does not seem like negative rates are necessary. of course, inflation is very scary for western europe, especially for the germans. jonathan: on the forecast next year, growth, inflation something north-south two. -- something north of two. kailey: on the inflation point, it has stuck by transitory, something the fed has abandoned. let's bring in the chief economist, a long-standing member of the committee. when we think about the fed and its policy pivot, you think they are already behind the curve and never risk of falling even farther behind.

president trump, and it was reported that you were probably going to become the supreme allied commander in europe, a very important position, and you emerged from that meeting as the projected chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. were you surprised that you got that position rather than the one people thought you were going to get? gen. milley: i knew when i went over there that i was interviewing to be chairman of the joint chiefs and any other position that the president deemed necessary. the first question president trump said to me, the first comment he said was, "you are here to interview to be chairman of the joint chiefs of staff." it was myself, then white house chief of staff kelly, and the president. we had an hour-long conversation. at the end he said thank you very much, and made the offer to have me be his chairman. all of us serve at the pleasure of the president. so whenever you are asked for any duty position, as a soldier, you execute the will of the president. david: so when you become the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, does your wife call you mr. chairman? your childr

romaine bostick europe alongside paul sweeney. one of the biggest stories has to be the direct listing of coinbase, which for a lot of people added a certain degree of legitimacy to what had already been a well embraced phenomenon. paul: crypto emerged in 2021 as certainly an asset class for a lot of investors, a lot of parts of this market. there is still a lot of skepticism about crypto in general, bitcoin in particular. we are seeing more and more embrace of this asset class. romaine: just yesterday we had a great conversation on bloomberg tv and radio with the ceo of coin list, new platform where you can buy all of the various points. it is well beyond bitcoin. unicorn status of around $.5 billion. graham jenkin is the ceo of coring list. here is what -- of coin list. here's what he had to say. graham: the arc of history as long. bitcoin was not doing so great and increased nicely. a lot of what is happening in the world. i think over time bitcoin ends up being an asset to invest in. romaine: this is a world that goes beyond b

you want to play europe, china, and some of those. i think like you said, it is about execution. and of these -- any of these startups throw in the white towel, you have to separate who is going to be the winners, and there's going to be a lot of supply chain players. there's lifecycle charts and others in the exercise. kailey: is there a limit to demand growth given that the infrastructure isn't necessarily as robust as can support every single american having electric vehicle? dan: if you look globally, 3% of automotive is ev's. we think that goes to 10% by 2025. the infrastructure could support getting up to about 15% of autos being ev's. ultimately you would have to get charging stations up by the end of the decade. but if you look into growth, it is a $5 trillion green tidal wave in terms of the amount of spend over the next decade. i think you start to hit some issues in terms of from an infrastructure perspective if we don't see any movement, especially in the u.s., and terms of charging stations, the grid, the upgrades or something like that. that won't happen till 20 fun

that is when we start to see wage data in europe picking up from q2 onwards. maybe that is when we start to readjust because if the fed raises rates in march, maybe that is the end of the dollar strength. from there onwards, that is when i expect euro-dollar to gain back. kailey: we talked about how the euro pete early in the first half. the dollar is now around 1.34%, in that ballpark. some strength coming back at the end of the year. do you expect that to fix, is julie -- to fix, or do we revert back to weakness? jordan: if you have a bullish view for sterling, you do it against the euro. if you have a bearish view, you do it against the dollar. at the moment i am trading on the short side, so i am short the pound, the dollar. it is pretty much a net neutral carry trade. when it comes to the table view, the reason i have that is that euro-dollar goes lower. i am looking for 1.30. one of the big surprises is the bank of england has raised interest rates. we've got that call right. but real yields, the inflation-adjusted real yields for the u.k. have recently

in europe, all-time highs, reflecting what we have seen. matt: i do not think it is a snoozefest. i think there is some interesting news that investors can sink their teeth into. on the corporate side, you have the apple store with surprise bonuses. on the central bank side, the survey is out and it worked its way into the economy and supply chains, as well. on the bitcoin side, the biggest slide since may. there is a lot going on without getting to the fact we are at all-time record highs on the indexes, or near them. i am excited about this wednesday. jonathan: i have known you a long time and i know when you are genuinely excited and the difference between what i just witnessed and what i witnessed several years ago we got your house several years ago and there was a maserati ready to use, that was a genuinely excited matt miller. i am confused about some of the restrictions around quarantining. what we learned earlier this week from the cdc is if you have tested positive for covid-19, you have to isolate for five days. if you fly into the netherlands, you might be quarantining

especially in europe. on the new issue pipeline, we see the dry powder looking for new opportunities. that should work for some m and date. is it going to reach the 2021 level? that is still pretty healthy going into next year. thank you so much for joining us. we appreciate it. that is looking at alternative on investors. i know a lot of people are looking for people to. you can't find in some of the alternative investments. whether it's a leverage loan or private debt, things like that. that's were a lot of people in fixed income are looking for yield. matt: maybe that demand gets even stronger. i was looking at a chart on the bloomberg. we have had seven years of double-digit gains. we are looking at a 20% gain in the equity markets right now. we had 17% last year. they are going to look to get some returns. that's what i think it was so interesting to talk to deborah. paul: i came to know albacore over the last six or seven years. they are big in europe and they are aggressive. it's great to get though

versus listed in japan or europe. the more traditional sectors that are not tech oriented is where i am. matt: i am sure you are not betting against the united states but on other countries where you see undervalued assets. where is that? patrick: i have been talking about it for a year. the companies have performed incredibly well and every time i have been on your show the last 15 months i talk about -- i don't get my head around trading four times earnings. how negative do things have to get for shipping rates to really make it be a four times earnings? it is probably up 60% per earnings are growing as fast and it is incredibly cheap. i do think if a structure spending will happen in the united states. i think europe will get around infrastructure spending, japan as well. i think steel is cheap. companies trading at six times earnings. there are companies benefiting from the global recovery but they are trading at very low multiples and they have higher potential in my opinion. jonathan: of those companies, some of

particularly if things get colder and the rest of europe. combined with the fact we got the geopolitical situation going on with the ukraine there is the potential for nato or the u.s. to put sanctions on russia. any kind of sanctions, even financial sanctions that impacted the swiss system, could impact russia's ability to sell natural gas and other energy products in europe which could have a catastrophic effect given the tenuous situation with energy. matt: much ado has been made about electric vehicles this year and into next. i'm sure that will continue but is it possible that we will see real adoption of this technology? when i look at urban centers around the world there really isn't any place to charge these vehicles. ellen: yeah. evs, you know, we see predictions saying the eeev market is going to explode. a lot of these car producers are producing a lot of evs. the question is, is there a consumer market? i don't see that happening right now both because of the price point and the limitations in terms of range and charging. it does

europe has done this well but in the u.s., it is something not prioritized. more people assume more people will be vaccinated and we are stuck in this limbo. kailey: have we learned we cannot vaccinate our way out of this? that you need more than one weapon in this war? or are we still putting too much emphasis on that in particular? >> the vaccines are the best to we have by far because they remove the ability of the virus to cause serious disease, hospitalization, and death. that has to be the key to our response but not everybody will be vaccinated and tests are one-way, especially with a contagious variant like omicron, you can get around vaccine-induced protection. tests are going to be equally important because people need to know their status and many organizations do not want to have any tolerance of cases in their workplace for example or at their event. this is something that needs to be done for the country to move forward. even if all of these cases are mild, there is not a risk tolerance to have these cases and you have hospitalizations under str

we had a real sense of what the united states had done to save europe. david: your father was a serbian immigrant? >> my father's family suffered from totalitarian regimes on the fascist side and communist sides . they were fortunate enough to escape with their lives during world war ii and it was their dream to come to the united states. when you have suffered from both types of totalitarianism, you treasure democracy, in particular a market-based democracy and he's an avid patriot, as is my mother, and they imbued me with a sense of patriotism. david: you grew up in various places and then went to college at smith. did you study aerosmith -- aerospace defense? >> no. i was a government major and philosophy minor. i have a liberal arts background in education. i learned to write and think in college. david: most people that graduate from smith probably don't wind up in the cia. when you were interviewing for jobs at the end of your college career, did you tell people i want to be in the cia? >> i had a sense of service to my nation and it seemed a good

in europe, you would see the inverse. you would see dine-in being a much bigger part of the business in europe. but during the pandemic, we did see drive-thru become a significant part of the business. david: another "d" is delivery. you have the ability to deliver. do you do it yourself or do you use one of the services to deliver products to homes? chris: we do both. it started for us in asia where we were doing our own delivery, particularly in china. in the middle east, we also have a pretty sizable delivery business where we do the delivery ourselves. then in other parts of the world, like in the u.s., we have partnered with third-party operators like uber eats or doordash. so right now, we do about $6 billion of sales a year through delivery, which is growing high teens globally. it has been pretty remarkable. david: another "d" is digital. you can buy things digitally. how do you do that? chris: so, the app for us, everything is moving to the app. i think, for us, it has been an interesting evolution to see where,

speaking of travel, in europe natural gas prices are plunging. we talk about what drives the move coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we do believe that gold does very well in times of inflation. if you own long-term treasury bonds that are yielding 2% and interest rates moved up to 5%, those bonds fall materially in value. likewise, if you have cash sitting in a bank that you are earning 0% on, inflation is 4%, you are gradually eroding the value of your money. as inflation picks up, people try and get out of fixed income, out of cash. the logical place to go is gold. especially if it starts to rise in inflationary times. but because of the amount of money trying to move out of cash and fixed income towards the amount of investable gold, the supply and demand imbalance causes gold to rise. the more it rises, it feeds on itself. it has the potential to go what i call parabolic. david: you are a big believer in gold as a good investment now? john: we thought with the fed doing quantitative easing, which is essentially printing money, that wo

cpi, potentially up to handle for europe -- potentially a two handle for europe. that explains why the fed might have some work to do. matt: the question is not only how that affects asset prices, but how it affects the economy. how do americans react to bigger inflation numbers, especially if they more persistent, what kind of behavior will that change? jonathan: and you will be living at. kailey: how lucky he is. matt: every time the fed -- every time someone says the fed needs to raise rates to increase the price of mortgages, i listen up. jonathan: it is personal, as michael jordan said. jim bianco will join us later this morning at 9:00 eastern. in lines, matt miller -- kailey leinz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: i am ritika gupta. coronavirus infections jumped over the weekend. china reported the highest number of cases since january. australia reported more than 10,000 daily cases for the first time since the start of the pandemic. daily omicron infections in the u.s. have now surpassed those in the delta wave. in pola

are we going to be getting more support from europe? are we going to get more support from the u.s. if the economy seems to lack it on the fiscal side? zach: the one thing that struck you, at least with respect to monetary policy, is how little the fed seems to be concerned about omicron, east as of the december meeting. from a physical standpoint, the focus in the u.s. is certainly on build back at her, a deal that has been dealt a serious blow recently. we expect, if something gets done there, it will be a q1 event. as far as another large-scale bill, covid release style, that is less likely as u.s. government has its hands full trying to get this bill back better past, probably a slimmed down version. something like $1.5 trillion is more likely to pass. matt: we were talking to an hsbc strategist early who says he thinks it will be a lot of impetus starting with the bill back inventories, to get back to the supply chain issue. do you think we will see that? are we seeing it already? zach: supply chains remain an issue. as far as its impact on inflation goes, we look for inflation

the tank was designed at a time when america was prepared to fight soviet forces in europe. it passed its toughest test in iraqi when it destroyed a huge iraqi force. the u.s. army has 2000 abrams tanks and service and they are all built by general dynamics. i got to see it up close. sounds solid to me. and watch it muscle through a a course at speeds of 45 miles an hour. to operate, soldiers complete a six week training course. i meet the age requirement, but i think i will stick to the family car. >> lets go through the major divisions you have, when is the marine systems you were ahead of marines systems? i think we are 68 submarines in the entire fleet. do we need submarines, are we replacing the ones we have? or do we need more than 68? >> i believe that the more submarines the better. while people may be skeptical of my view, given where i sit, from a national security perspective, -- is critical to national security. the more submarines we can put in the water, the better we are to protect our shores and assets. >> it takes a long time to build a submarine. three year

heading towards europe. suggesting you will get additional supply even if there are concerns -- the concerns about russian resupply's remain. whether you get a milder winter will be a factor as we weigh up these prices. produce steel talking about the impacts of their business. traders ringing in their last-minute holiday cheer. the s&p 500 hitting an all-time high yesterday amid optimism that economic growth will weather the omicron coronavirus outbreak but there are a number of risks ahead from the virus to inflation. we have been asking markets where they are looking out for in the year had. >> we certainly value favor into 2022 overgrowth. and are much more on the short duration side, when we look at equities and fixed income. >> u.s. equities will still do ok next year. but i think you get double that in some of the international markets including the emerging markets. >> we do think it will would create some slowdowns in the economy. perhaps some slowdowns in production which could add to inflation pre

it is europe, the americas. europe has the highest sales of electric vehicles. and we will see those numbers going up because battery prices, which are the most expensive part of electric vehicles are falling and falling quickly. the inflationary pressures that have come through this year because supply chains have been disrupted and metal prices are going up and those have slowed down their trends a little bit but if you compare those two fossil fuel technologies, green technologies are cheaper. dani: thank you so much as always. that is our bloomberg green reporter. one of the assets trading until 3:30 p.m. u.k. time and has been moving is a europe gas. we are looking at declines at about 17% so far today. this is a large plunge down some 40%, a biggest -- the biggest three day fall on record. this comes with skyhigh prices due to the colder weather. u.s. lng tankers coming to the continent to fill some of the gap. that has allowed prices to fall. there is the question how long this can be sustained and we will keep our eye on those prices for you throughout t

europe. getting home for christmas just got a little bit harder. united and delta have cancelled around 200 christmas eve flights. united said in a jump in omicron cases is affecting the availability of the crew. delta blames that and the potential for bad water. bit coin has jumped to around 51,000 dollars touching the highest level in more than two weeks the largest crypto currency is benefiting from a risk appetite. the digital coin is up to 76% this year. it's on course for its third year of gains. and that's your bloomberg first news. we speak to sayad abikash and why his strategy is to stay short treasure risk that and long dollar. steady today after and all-time high in the u.s. market. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we certainly favor value into 2022 over growth and are much more on the short duration side. both look ater quities and fixed income. u.s. equities will still do ok next year. i think you can get double that in some of the international markets including emerging marketings. >>

and europe -- back to the u.s. and europe as he tries to restore the world's largest chip maker to its former glory. for more let's bring in ian king. i miss you in san francisco but it is good to see you over here in the video verse. talk to us about these expansion plans. frankly, if it is coming soon enough? ian: if you are talking is it coming soon enough for the chip shortages right now, absolutely not. these factories take years. no help there. what gelsinger is doing is he has this very ambitious expansion plan. new business getting into competing with ts industry. he has competed that committed a lot of money that investors have not enjoyed reading about, 28 billion in next year. that is a big increase. if he can get government money in the u.s. or europe to pay for this, this will make this more palatable for investors and help him. taylor: we continue to go global in our discussion, ian. a social media backlash after sending a letter asking suppliers to avoid sourcing from the chinese region of xinjiang w

this variant is pushing cases to a high across europe. infections at a new record, 120,000, underreported. in france, authorities warning the number could jump higher. italy tightening restrictions after a record 44,000 infections. yvonne: president biden has signed a bill banning goods from one region, and less companies can prove they're not made with forced labor. beijing has responded angrily, telling the u.s. to stop spreading lies about the region. let's get the details from our chief north asian correspondent. where does the relationship go from here? >> it heads into the new year on another sticking point. this is in addition to the boycott of the olympics. the lunar new year holiday and china, between now and then, there is not a lot of time for rapprochement and repairing of relations. this will put the relationship on his shaky footing. it is even more shaky for american companies that do business or procure supplies from those areas. this u.s. law was a foregone conclusion. it received unanimous support earlier this month. bid

cargoes are on the way to europe and that gave traders in europe a lot of hope for the new year sessions. i want to point to new york city's new year because we will see what happens around the globe. plans are changing by the day when it comes to the times square ball drop. 15,000 is the limit that bill de blasio is putting on the times square grouping and it will be socially distanced. that changed in the last 24 hours as we saw omicron cases flareups. everyone will need to be vaccinated, but they will not need to prove they've had a booster shot. haidi: when it comes to times square, it's not one of my favorite places in new york city. being there in person even pre-pandemic fills me with a bit of dread. in australia, we are the first to ring in the new year. there are going to be social distancing measures in place when it comes to capacity limits. we continue to hear about the impact when it comes to these major events. ces is still pushing ahead saying they will continue with these plans to hold it in person in early january despite high-profile dropouts including amazon, twitter,

in europe, cases are setting records in the u.k., italy. the concern is real. there is evidence omicron is spreading faster than the delta variant there is emerging evidence it may be less severe but not make people as ill. the real caution is even a less severe variant, if it spreads quicker could create -- it could land a lot of people in the hospital and could create demand on the limited capacity hospital beds. that is a troubling sign going into the holidays. taylor: we are just holding our breath to get the two weeks after christmas. >> i think we will see. there are a lot of people traveling this week. lots more activity in the u.s. then there was this time last year. on the other hand, a big portion of the population as vaccinated. more people are getting boosters. we don't know yet how this is going to look a couple weeks from now. hopefully -- i think it is likely we are already seeing a few increase in cases. it is likely will seek increase in hospitalizations. the question is the degree of that, nobody can say right now. taylor: safe holiday travels

russia where we look at the gas prices in europe. tie one away from china. -- taiwan moving away from china. want to be moving toward those conversations and the global nature of these risks. taylor: let's go global with michael kelly. on a global basis, what are the biggest risks for you? >> the risks are very real. they were very unpredictable as you know -- they are very unpredictable as you know. i think your prior guest had it right. the biggest global risk market still is coming from the united states. it is not necessarily interest rates. we are used to the fed as your friend. in fragile environment, the central bank needed markets to do well to produce wealth effects, to produce consumption. now we are overheating and everything flips upside down when you are overheating especially when you cannot just wave your wand say transitory and we are right away. the policy mistake is not -- and sends markets down a little bit. that is the old world. the new world is they don't do enough to tighten financial conditions. we don't just

in europe, futures coming drastically down from record highs as u.s. lng looks to help solve the energy crisis. here in the u.s., futures are coming down six percentage points on natural gas futures, hitting the lowest since june. christmas will be a lot warmer than initially thought to. let's get back to the news on the fight against covid-19. mark's -- merck's coronavirus antiviral pill was given emergency use authorization. we understand merck says it can make 10 million doses by the end-of-the-year. the u.s. will not take all of those. where does this fit into the strategy? >> interesting question, something that we will see play out particularly over the next few months. merck will be able to scale up their production a lot faster than pfizer. the pfizer drug that you talked about that was authorized yesterday, they are used to treat pretty much the same patients. high-risk patients early in the course of the disease. merck will be able to have production right away. pfizer will take longer. however, as we saw today, the merck drug is not for use

>> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: 30 minutes to go until we break for christmas here in europe. we do have a little bit of trading tomorrow morning, but i think a lot of people have made decisions basically to bailout already. the stoxx 600 is up by 1% at the moment. we are up by nearly five points here in europe. travel and leisure is having a really solid day. the market definitely looking through omicron. the news around omicron getting significant leak better versus the beginning of the week. the pound is also bid. we are repricing the bank of england, and there is an omicron factor in all of this. the other story you definitely want to focus on here in europe is the massive drop we have seen in gas prices. gas prices have been rocketing higher, now starting to see some lng carriers crossing the north atlantic, bringing some welcome relief. from london, i'm guy johnson, with my cohost in new york today, sonali basak. alix steel

there's lng cargoes going into europe. you will also probably get some demand instruction in the process. a lot of the european industrial players have been trying to curtail their consumption pretty aggressively because of these prices. nothing really makes sense, and puts it at a competitive disadvantage. but europe still needs to get through the winter, so there is still concern. we have pretty low inventories, and when inventories are at these low levels, you get these extreme price moves. hopefully this last jump in prices will cure the challenges europe has faced and move us into a more stable price environment into the first quarter. sonali: open up your crystal ball and start to draw out what the conversation will look like over the next month or two. francisco: for the next month or two, we are still going to experience extremely high volatility in natural gas prices. the u.s. is different. in the u.s. we are getting a supply response, mainly from producers across the country. we have seen an increase in productio

the energy store in europe is what i keep coming back to. fascinating to see how the high energy prices will impact the economic trajectory next year in europe. damian: jon ferro was right. everyone has left for holiday. kriti gupta keeps minding us with all of the data. yields are not moving. i guess it is time to wash, rinse, repeat, look for people to put on the reopening trade. kailey: i think we'll have to give one up for damian sassower crushing his bloomberg surveillance anchoring debut. color meet impressed. guy: i am very impressed. i did not have any doubt whatsoever damian sassower would be able to deliver. he is just getting ready. he is going down to florida, thinking about that warm weather. that is in my near future as well. kailey: you and me both. that will wrap it up for bloomberg surveillance. coming up on balance of power, republican congressman warren davidson of ohio. just shy of record highs in the s&p. thanks for joining us on tv and radio. happy holidays. this is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: from new york city for our vi

europe has got super high energy prices right now. damian: i just have to go back to what ian bremmer said on "balance of power" yesterday. he said this might not be an incursion into ukraine by russia. this might result in a formal annexation, something like we saw in previous instances. the accused the ukraine -- if they accused the ukraine of genocide against the russians, what would the u.s. be able to do to prevent it? your guess is as good as mine. guy: you look at what is happening, the administration in washington come up you look at berlin, what's happening in paris, highly unlikely certainly seems to be the story i get back when i talk to people about this. but the other threat that putin doesn't talk about is if ukraine prospers and is a democratic country, he has always made the point that former soviet satellite states can't exist in the same democratic framework that the west existed. if ukraine can prove that works, that is a threat to vladimir putin's rule in russia. we will talk about that certainly a little later in

and europe. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> no country can boost its way out of the pandemic. and, boosters cannot be seen as a take it to go ahead with the plan celebrations without the need for other precautions, blanket rooster programs are likely to prolong the pandemic rather than end it by diverting supply to countries that already have high levels of vaccination coverage, giving the virus more opportunity to spread and mutate. kailey: that was the director general of the world health organization warning against the overused of boosters, but they really seem to be the focus at the moment because we are getting more data of the efficacy of them against omicron and astrazeneca is just the latest. anna: yesterday was about the antivirals and today we are back about the boosters. we got news from astrazeneca about the effectiveness of their shots against omic

and you think europe may be a bit of a lag or. what is the timeframe to getting back to pre-pandemic levels? anita: the outlook around europe is really to get to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. and again, this is going to be if you think about the luxury sector, a good proportion of that was reliant on long-haul travel into europe. it has been repatriated more into china. we do expect to see europe on a slower recovery curve. having said that, we also look at identifying the top 20 winners in our state of fashion 2022. it is interesting to see that up the top 20 globally, 50% of those are companies based out of europe. to some extent it does point to the relative resistance -- resilience of companies based in europe. tom: you touched on this, the divergence between luxury and the mid end of the sector. what are we seeing in terms of the pressure within the mid end, in terms of bankruptcies, buyouts, is that expected to accelerate in 2022 or are we peeking? anita: the top 20 have been relatively resilient over this period and some of

let's switch gears to europe. gas prices retreated, remaining close to record high seen on tuesday as russia keeps shipment in europe tapped. they are expected to end the heating segment at low level, extending this year's energy crunch. still with us is slivia merler. sylvia, how much of a threat is this energy crisis to the european economy? >> i think it is a very significant threat. the position is very encouraging going into 2022. as we are at the moment for this time of year, the lowest level seen in five years. increased demand in the first part of the year. the situation with russia contributing to this, as well. the bottom line is if we are getting into winter that might be colder than usual, it might wind up less. you might end up scraping the bottom of the barrel. dani: what do spillover effects look like, especially in the energy intensive industry? not just them, but consumers, as well? >> we are looking at very high prices. if that's an area to materialize, it would be very low, even negative. we wou

or lots of parts of europe. we are seeing deaths have been 1, 2, even zero some days over the past few weeks. but as you mentioned, we saw at least three community transmissions in osaka announced yesterday. that means there are probably a lot of cases out there we don't know about yet. therefore i think we can expect that this is the calm before the storm and we are going to see a big rise in cases in the coming weeks. >> why is the former vaccine minister so dissatisfied with a booster rollout? >> the key is the timing. the plan is for the population to have to wait eight months in between there second is of the vaccine and the third dose. he is saying there is really no need to be waiting that long. there are 56 million doses already in the country according to them. why don't we roll them out a lot faster given that omicron is already here in the country? there are already another 70 million doses due to arise in japan in the first quarter of next year. they will have enough to cover the whole population muc

and europe. we are having a hard time figuring out how to change and adapt our policies to a disease that looks different than it did 10 months ago. >> one thing you have written about is it is not just policies and what they are about, but if they are coordinated or not. there has been a competition incoordination. >> it is so unfortunate we have learned no global lessons on the pandemic. it is very clear that we were going to have additional variants that would pose big problems for the world if we weren't able to vaccinate the world. and we did it. we focused -- and we didn't. we focused on our internal challenges in every country. in some cases, every state, every city. the consequence of that, it took a long time before americans started doing vaccine diplomacy. there was not coordination between the world's largest powers. there wasn't trust. that put us in a more difficult decision responding to covid. >> i'm struck by the fact that in your note, you put the number one risk as internal in

>> we are looking more and more towards europe and developed countries outside of the u.s. because of lower valuations. as we look to the income space and look for exposure, it makes a lot of sense for us. taylor: everyone will be sticking with us because next, it is the auction block. corporate issuers are awaiting the new year. that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: one of these years, i will be named this, but i don't think they would be happy with me. it we will get to that in a moment. $61 billion for the first to be a weeks of the month. pricing nearly about $9 million this. marking it as one of the slowest decembers in three years. strong demand for the treasury action 20 year, taking down a record portion. joining us around the table, maybe in person, one of these days. talking about not having a stagflation environment. only 300 and high-yield. is this adjusted return? >> yes. i think tight yields will do well. i think people will be looking. i think it will be a boring market. as a whole, i am very comfortable. you will not get hurt their. just

we are looking at europe walking down. i listened to president biden last night, make it clear it is not going to happen in the united states. just in terms of the outcomes from a monetary and gross point of view, how big a gap are we going to be looking at as we work our way through the next few months? kathleen: the monetary policy is huge. believe that we will see continued widening of sovereign yield spreads between europe and the u.s. in particular. in the u.k., we are worried, just like your previous professor mentioned. there's huge havoc played in the last few weeks in the economy because of some new people getting omicron. they can't go to work. they have to stay home. restaurants shutting. people isolating themselves and locking down themselves. that is going to have an impact on q4 definitely. but the outlook for q1 we are slightly more positive about, particularly if we see omicron become not necessarily less infectious, but it will over time. in terms of monetary policy, we think there are huge challenges ahea

these are areas where europe and even asia are somewhat ahead of the u.s. in terms of innovating, and we have to be global in our footprint, which ddg and the capital -- which bt andg -- which btg and b r. that leaves a big swath of companies that have not been applying technology effectively. so a huge number of industries need to be brought into the 21st century and beyond, and i think that is an investing area that will stay very sticky and offer a lot of opportunity. guy: it is great to catch up again. thank you for your time today. we really appreciate it. we look forward to seeing you again soon. sheila patel, b capital vice chair, thank you very much. alix: oil inventories coming up nine minutes ago. oil taking a leg higher in part because there was a big draw in oil inventories, about 4.7 million barrels. a large part of that, the u.s. gulf coast. implied demand for gasoline distillates also super strong. you did get a gasoline inventory build, but the demand still coming in a bit strong. you are seeing wti responding. also helped by the weaker doll

brian: europe is cheap and europe next summer, not even though summer. i love europe in april and may or september and october. it depends i recommend people wait because unless you like the process of planning a trip, which i believe is good for mental health, even just having something booked, things have changed so rapidly that when you are buying tickets i would wait to see what the situation is 90 days out from your trip. kailey: i hope tom keene heard that. not just waiting for an entry point into the market, entry point into the travel space. thanks a much to brian kelly, the points guy. gina martin adams has helped us fill in all week. thank you so much for joining us on this week. what is your number one take away from the past couple of days? gina: i think it is that everyone remains generally pretty optimistic. we have had a few bears, but most people are pretty optimistic about the year ahead. definitely balancing strong growth with inflation pressures. i get a sense of optimism from many of our guests. kailey: thank you so much. guy and i wi

and europe in particular. it is really the same thing that is happened in china, even though china has had a slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter that has been pretty dramatic. their currency has done well because they continue to export to other asian economies, and the repatriation of those dollars helps the local currencies. latin america is a completely different situation. it depends much more on commodities demand and commodities prices. although oil has stayed fairly ok and copper has done ok, iron prices have not, and that has hurt brazil. but with regards to latin america in 2022, the big issues are going to be the politics, because we see elections in colombia and brazil, and high debt impinging on their ability to raise rates aggressively, and as a result, we are not as optimistic about the latin american currencies as we might be about the asian currencies. gina: clearly china is now starting to take efforts to reduce reserve requirements and potentially move into an easing scenario as the

a lot of the rally here in europe, kayl -- kailey, has been on the gas price. kailey: yeah, a lot more excitement on gas prices and not a lot of movement today. we will see events we have today actually are able to be a catalyst. that in part includes a lot of economic data in the u.s., beginning at 8:30 a.m. eastern time where we get the third quarter gdp and personal consumption. on the gdp front, we are expecting it to stay at 2.1%, as the prior read suggested. again, that is a slowdown, but economists largely expected to pick back up in the third quarter. at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, an important read on the consumer with consumer confidence for the month of december. we are expecting it to pick up, but we will be paying attention to inflation expectations, labor expectations, get a read on how the consumer is feeling as it is faced with the omicron variant and inflation. is that going to translate into how they spend? it has not happened yet. finally, we will get the inventory report. this has been important as they try to weigh the supply pick speed with m

and europe. in many parts of the world, most parts, when we were looking on a global basis, we realized we had to help europe to deliver more vaccines, but around the world everything was going bad. francine: anything you would do differently with hindsight, and do you feel like you were unfairly politicized? pascal: sometimes people try to read too much with hindsight. a trial fails, people ask if you would do it again. if you know it fails, you do not run it again. this is hindsight. there is nothing we would do differently. politics was always going to be part of this issue, more than we anticipated, but it would always be part of the issue because we expected issues of moving vaccines around the world. we expected debate around the vaccines. we expected a lot of political issues and debates. in europe it was more than expected, but we stayed focus on delivering the vaccine and solving problems as they came. francine: that was pascal soriot , professor, ucl. you can catch the full interview on

flows to europe -- curbed gas flows to europe. does it seem like we might get more supply from russia? >> yes, i think that is what traders were expecting yesterday. there was an indication how much more russia could send, and those numbers were disappointing. flows will continue to be capped in january, maybe slightly better than in december, but it is not looking good. today specifically, russia has not -- it looks like we will have zero flow into germany again. dani: how much political power does this give germany with the european union, if they are dependent on them to help solve the energy crisis they are facing? isis: the whole of europe is depending on russia. most analysts, when you look at it, it does not put europe in a good position when it comes to bargaining for anything politically. europe is hostage to the gas crisis, and that does not put them in a strong position. we have not seen europe do much these days. dani: as we look forward to 2022, what can european governments do? what structurally can they change to ma

yvonne: we continue to follow what's been going on in europe. virus updates continue here on a daily basis, a few more reported cases of omicron. it brings the total to 27 now. japan will maintain strict border controls for the time being given the uncertainty when it comes to omicron. the u.s. has the -- could clear covid pills as early as this week as well. and thailand halting core team free entry, bringing questions to what it means about the revival of the tourism sector. rishaad: and geopolitics playing out as well. what we have at the moment, the crisis revolves around gas. looking at the price of gas as it continues to lurch upwards. at the moment, really plummeting, the amount coming from russia through to europe. seven vessels changing their course to head toward europe after initially signaling north asia as their destination. that gives you a sense of how badly we need gas at the moment in europe. we got temperatures of minus one in paris, zero degrees in berlin and two degrees in london for the time being. they needed and to keep wa