so what we really need from europe is what the united states needs from europe, a creative way that europe can still benefit from china, but stay in sync with the u.s. striving to bring them, to bring turnaround. it is going to be difficult. tom: we are looking at the top risks that eurasia sees for 2021, and of course that is an international field. but i've got to turn to the german election this year. it is a huge and important and original election. chris reiter of our berlin operation tells me very simply that this could be your conservatives and the greens together. that is unusual, to say the least. how do you get a coalition developed in the new germany? the future germany? i would say the coalition between conservatives and the greens is something which should have happened four years ago. if you look to the german society, this is the coalition, the majority of the germans want to have. it was not able because they needed, and the liberals had the theing that they would be fifth wheel on the wagon, so they decided not to join the government, and that only was the reason that we h

biggest economy in europe, the engine of europe's economy in germany, is christine lagarde going to have to rethink tapering of that bond buying program? jonathan: you don't enjoy those ecb presses? does that not do it for you? matt: no. i've gone to way too many. ever since the woman poured pink powder all over mario draghi -- jonathan: i remember. matt: they've increased security to the point where it is not fun. jonathan: i think it was confetti. 1.1280 nine on euro-dollar. euro weakness. good morning. romaine: whatever the ecb and other central banks decide, investors have decided l to airlines setting up for a fourth straight day of declines. we've seen weakness all week long in travel stocks in the united states while the lockdown chatter is still over in europe. there is concerned it could feed into the u.s. markets. zoom, pellets on, netflix -- peloton, netflix all higher as people bet as we head deeper into the winter season we could be hunkering down. zoom shares up 2% on the day. got to applied material earnings. the ceo talking about supply chain issues and quantified the imp

and europe, market cap gdp is three times higher than europe. we lack capital in europe, and there are concerns -- my appointing partner share the vision to bring capital come and we chose naturally the -- francine: the world has capital in abundance. many people are starting spac's. why -- what would set you apart? jean-pierre: there are two strategy point concerns. with two partners, while they focus on financial sectors, when we will do, what we can bring to a company is experience of the financial sector and digital transformation, regulatory, and long-term vision and the ability to work with -- francine: which areas of financial services do you now consider undervalued? jean-pierre: within the financial services, the -- that has been taking place than it been actively directed by the crisis, you can see in subsectors insurance, pin tech, and financials, that the need for all of them to reach critical size on one side, and traditional asset management need to reach the critical side of asset management in europe. [indiscernible] concentratin

the focus is on europe. lisa: very much so. austria announcing a lockdown and restriction in movement. you are seeing german cases sore and this is bleeding into euro weakness and frankly oil weakness as well as people recalibrate the global economy. jonathan: euro-dollar 1.13 and bravely with a 1.12 handle. restrictions and austria and may be more out of germany. matt miller commodore thoughts? matt: my thoughts are you see a real safe haven bid. the strength of the dollar caught my eye, but then i saw the yen is strengthening even more. investors are looking for safety. they are buying bonds and selling stocks. it is not a huge move in risk assets outside of the fx world but it is a concern. 400 cases for every 100,000 people in germany. 1000 new cases for every 100,000 people in austria. jonathan: italian bonds are curious. yields lower in italy into the ecb. that decision a month away. lisa: this ties the hands of the ecb to talk about any purchasing or and dave thereupon purchasing early. the worst you get from a pandemic

or europe. the outlook is beyond the control of the ecb and the governing council and christine lagarde. is the vaccination effort in europe lagging behind the developed world? is that a crucial issue for you? michael: pretty much every country. you have to get people vaccinated, to the point of herd immunity. rough start everywhere. that is not unexpected. it hasn't been done on this scale before. in the u.s., the biden administration has to be able to put its plans in place to move forward and get that going. europe's got to get going with their program as well. the only ones moving fast are the brits. they started off on a tough scale. it is the question, as jay powell and others have said. the viruses running the economy right now. jonathan: mission-critical. great to catch up. looking down to washington dc, ecb in frankfurt, europe and the world and lisa, europe, day by day, week by week, if that program doesn't pick up in germany, europe is getting worse. lisa: one reason you pointed to th

jonathan: europe doesn't want a stronger currency. europe doesn't want higher yields. the chairman is comfortable with what he sees at the moment. when do we start to thing about the feedback loop if this continues? tom: it could be a deflation spiral or a feedback spiral. jonathan: don't get lisa started. lisa? she's letting ago. lisa: carry on. jonathan: all right. coming up in the eight a clock a.m. our, -- in the 8:00 a.m. hour, david malpass, world bank president. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: in new york with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. new research says the pfizer/biontech vaccine could help end the pandemic. the study was published in the latest edition of the new england journal of medicine. meanwhile, capitol hill, the fate of the democrats' proposed $15 an hour minimum wage maybe in the hands of the senate parliamentarian. it is part of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, but the parliamentarian needs to determine whether it is allowable under the rules of debate. the president has revoked a series of executive orders and memos issued by paul for

a similar suggestion is in europe. in europe, we will be able to provide way more in the second quarter as a result not only of this, but other measures. so it is a great thing for everyone we are doing so, and i think it would be critical if we can use those instead of throwing one, when a vaccine can save lives right now. john: just one particular thing on that, on the issue of if you need an extra dose, does that mean you also need more kits with it? does that mean you need more syringes and that? jonathan: that is john micklethwait of bloomberg news alongside the pfizer ceo. much more on that throughout the day on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. already in 2021, just a series of reality checks about the year still to come. so much hope about the back half of this year, and all of a stud and you start to recognize we are not going to get the global secret has growth story, at least not as soon as we might have liked it

rising ins are also europe. investors are beginning to look past toward a prospect of a biden presidency and a democrat-controlled congress. the dollar gaining, bitcoin crude oil actually edges higher. bloombergget to the first word news. here is leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine. top democrats are calling on the vice president mike pence to act, saying otherwise they may start the impeachment process. it comes amid a wave of resignations over the president's incitement of the mob. president-elect joe biden has described the trump supporters that stormed the u.s. capitol as "domestic terrorists," adding they would have been treated much more harshly had they represented black lives matter. creating an atmosphere that toowed the violence happen. bloomberg sources tell us president trump has prepared a list of individuals he is hoping to pardon in his final days of presidency, including family members, cabinet members, prominent rappers, and perhaps the president himself. january

is turkey part of europe? mij: absolutely. -- obviously will be riskng about the turkey later with the political and economic challenges. dialogue, but not moving meaningfully closer. tom: thank you. it has been a spectacular week, we have a perspective from eurasia group. thank you. risks is not to get distracted, we staggered at 830, and what is believed to be a challenging labor report in the united states. it's amazing to see the deterioration from the november report to this morning's december report. yes, of course you need to put in perspective the various lockdowns, you do wonder how much of the focus this will give us an this will be able to give us in terms of what the economy is going through, whether it's a couple months blip. but it could definitely move the treasury. tom: jeff rosenberg will be joining us along the morning. asing up, jason is with us j.p. morgan chase has the wonderful ability to get the pulse on the context nationwide. and jim will join us on a challenging jobs report. dow futur

if you look at the differences between europe and u.s., europe 93%, u.s. went after 33%, talking about 423 billion of debt restructuring in the world, as of which only europe really went into a lockdown, almost from a physical point of view but also from a restructuring, financial point of view, because of the protection, is what americans call the kicking the can down the road. for what we have been seeing in europe, we have seen happening, as often is the case come in the longer period in the next couple of years in europe. francine: stefano, is it healthy companies that are, you know, going bankrupt or researcher because of the pandemic, or is it companies that would have not survived anyway, it would have just taken longer to get there? stefano: it would be more the second case. companies that were struggling before and that were limping around and have been put into the debt in kind of a frozen state, but now they will not be able to survive after that, and, to some extent, this is the better cleaning that did not happen and happen that every crisis.

tom: the timing is 3:00 in europe. that is central europe. in eastern europe it is 4:00 p.m. about at the point of pre-conferences and agreements. i would think in the next six hours we will have a lot more to talk about. lisa: this comes at such a delicate moment internationally and economically. the idea people are just starting to travel again. we are seeing president biden try to set a new agenda for the united states and prepare for his trip to the summit in europe. such a perilous moment in some ways. a crossroads for 70 different aspects of the global economy. this highlights them in one swoop. tom: no doubts we will have comments from the white house as they wake up at 9:00 washington time. markets are range bound, but then they are not. the vix in nicely with enthusiasm. s&p 500 up 23 point. jon called in from coventry, wanting to quote the dow. 4292 on the dow. a nice lift to the markets. on "balance of power" the cogent voice on the republican side, glenn hubbard with republican -- with columbia business school. stay with us on belarus. this is bloomberg on radio,

that is one of the signs we are looking at in your -- in europe. lisa: i walked in this morning and kailey leinz said, what about bitcoin? [laughter] kailey: i would just note that other assets are very positive, you're seeing that show up today. it is a decidedly negative day for bitcoin. bitcoin is down about 7.8%. it is 20% off of its record high that we reached just a few weeks ago. i know you care a lot about the bond market and we are watching oil, but this one is for tom keene, who is definitely watching. lisa: i will give you this. back in march 2020, we actually saw bitcoin gaining. we saw it acting as a haven in a certain way, and we are not seeing that in any way, and we haven't any while. we are speaking about oil with amrita sen coming up. lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, anna edwards over in london. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ lisa: this is "bloomberg surveillance. tom keene and jonathan ferro off, kailey leinz and anna edwards in. we are looking get the markets facing the potential of another pandemic wave. the s&p down 1.7%

coming up, etf iq europe. ♪ etf iq europe. ♪ francine: welcome to etf iq europe. everything you need to know about the funds and the flows. best month on record. european etf's take it 21 billion euros total, close to the 100 billion mark. we ask if investors can keep up the pace in 2021. demanding diversity, fate state becomes the latest money managers use voting power to make company boards more representative. and -- first off, let's get a look at which countries and sectors have been attracting the money. dani has all of the details. dani: hi, francine.

and china to europe as well. how will europe and the u.s. fair as they discussed china? enrico: i think it is one of the big changes from trump and biden in terms of methods and procedure. trump challenged china without any clashes with europeans. china is a complex topic. i think that can be the way to relaunch the role of g7. g7 is missing in action in the past years because of trump. it is the only place where you have japan, north america, and europeans together. my feeling is that it is maybe the right place to have a discussion. and a place to manage the common positions of the western countries toward china on technology, protection, security. i think that can be the right place and the right way. for me, what is important is the fact that we will have the first meeting between biden, jie zheng peng, and the european leaders. i don't know if these talks would give positive solutions but it is time to talk. the european union before the end of last year decided to announce the agreement with china on investments, rules of investments. . we had to try to have common

europe has got super high energy prices right now. damian: i just have to go back to what ian bremmer said on "balance of power" yesterday. he said this might not be an incursion into ukraine by russia. this might result in a formal annexation, something like we saw in previous instances. the accused the ukraine -- if they accused the ukraine of genocide against the russians, what would the u.s. be able to do to prevent it? your guess is as good as mine. guy: you look at what is happening, the administration in washington come up you look at berlin, what's happening in paris, highly unlikely certainly seems to be the story i get back when i talk to people about this. but the other threat that putin doesn't talk about is if ukraine prospers and is a democratic country, he has always made the point that former soviet satellite states can't exist in the same democratic framework that the west existed. if ukraine can prove that works, that is a threat to vladimir putin's rule in russia. we will talk about that certainly a little later in

we are assessing the potential for a third wave in europe. jonathan: the contrast between europe and the united states is phenomenal. we have been talking about it in markets for about three months. i am wondering whether we have fully priced that story just yet. euro-dollar has had a move down to one dollar 18 cents. have we reached the inflection point where we have both peak optimism in the united states a look of to peak pessimism in europe? lisa: there's also a question of whether people are fast forwarding too much. europe will recover. there will be enough vaccine. they will emerge from the pandemic. at least you are in the trade. the idea is that people are fast forwarding to a time where the u.s. isn't recovering as quickly and europe is the one that is leading. if that is delayed by two months, three months, four months, it doesn't make that much of a different. jonathan: there's an infrastructure conversation in the united states which follows the $1.9 trillion relief plan. that is where the debate is a little later this afternoon.

draghi was the man during the crisis of europe who saved europe. because in italy, a lot of people think in the past. europe is not a problem, and that is not true! europe is not our only possibility to abdicate from our crisis. so mario draghi, that is absolutely the simple, because he is the italian who saved europe, and he is the italian who saved our country. francine: matteo renzi, thank you so much. i can tell you with so much chatter on the markets with the fact that so many market for dispense heard mario draghi -- market participants heard mario draghi speaking english, and they heard him speaking italian for the first time. matteo renzi, head of the italy viva party, thank you very much. coming up, our interview with mario monti at 9:30 a.m., london time. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. let's get back to the markets, and the treasury curve, five years of expectations over the saudi government's decision to leave long-term d

now let's focus on the future of europe's banking sector. how worried should we be about nonperforming loans after the current elf and economic crisis eases the echo -- the current health and economic crisis eases? it warns more information is needed about the quality of lending. we are delighted to welcome andrea enria. as always, thank you so much for joining us. a lot of questions on loans, on some of the credit risks out there. given your line of work? how do you look at market risk? looking at specific stocks in the u.s., is it symptomatic of something that needs to be looked at by supervisory? do we need to focus more on markets in general and some of the underlying risk that could be there? andrea: market risk is not a new risk for supervisors. we are currently conducting a quite extensive on-site inspection -- actually, off-site given the current conditions, but still a campaign in which we are focusing quite a lot. i would say at the moment with the pandemic, let's say the core focus of supervisors is the key priority, for us in the

waiting on it for europe, the reality of europe is the challenges of the economic condition right now. my view with regards to europe is less about cyclical exposure to those parts of the market and more of the structural growth stories of europe. those that are going to benefit from improving economic activity in the emerging markets. jonathan: the decision of how you diversify geographically is a lot more complex than it was six months ago. what do you do? it is simple, you leverage yourself to europe, to the dollar. it is not that simple because these countries are opening up into different stages at different times. i don't think we can make the decision we used to make. isn't it more complex now? guy: it is, but -- brian: it is, but the dollar has moved, the u.s. economy seems to be gathering some momentum. but i think investors should keep it more simple than that and think about the type of businesses that they believe are structurally advantaged for this new world and a world we will find ourselves in over the next number of years. there is a cyclical recovery at play here, bu

this idea we have better-than-expected data out of europe. no one cares. at what point does data matter or at what point is it always backwards looking? jonathan: trying to game out the future based on where we are with vaccinations. europe versus u.s., of the new number in the united states tracking daily on average over the last seven days. your average rate of vaccinations in america, 2.5 million doses per day. hanging out at that level. let's discuss that with lauren sauer. always great to get you back on the program, let's start here. yesterday, texas announced they will widen the eligibility for everyone 16 plus, all adults next week. when you see those decisions being made to see that driven by the data? what's your take? lauren: it's a mix. it's less about the data and more about getting as many people in those spaces. texas is creating a space where they can get maximum amount of people and supplied to back it up. that is definitely an approach many people are advocating for. we are seeing in a lot of sites across the country. the key is vaccine s

some in europe, too. one of the biggest short positions that melvin capital has in europe. so the most popular shorts over the past few days have rallied 15%, and because it is getting more expensive now for those people to short them because of the collateral they will have to post with the higher prices of these hedge funds, we have also seen them start to suffer the idea, being that perhaps they are taking profit on some of their long positions to fund the wildness going on with this short. francine: to put into context, the rally of gamestop now exceeds 5500 members, pretty out there. what are these traders doing on reddit? francine: -- dani: it is a complete gray area , and there's a lot of debate right now. could it be a pump and dump sort of thing that the sec pursues? one of the case studies, for example, is there an intent to create artificial prizes through supply and demands that are not legitimate? who is to say supply and demand? no one here is pretending that gamestop has more fundamental value than it does, they are just enjoying buying it. they are being ver

and also some american spirits in europe. hopefully, there will be an agreement one day but it is beyond our control, as you can imagine. tom: alexandre, wonderful to speak to you from new york. what you purvey is vitally needed in the pressures of a pandemic, but it will be a changed industry. how will your industry change coming out of pandemic? alexandre: first of all, with the pandemic has proven is very ng resilience of the spirits industry. we have seen compensation of severe and trade commit disruption through home consumption. these were trends that were already merging before this whole crisis hits us. and talking about, for instance, the payment trend. people really enjoying entertaining at home with family and friends. we have seen the cocktail at home trend really accelerate. we have seen home deliveries accelerate as well. tom: no. alexandre: the last few months. post-covid, people will go back into trade because the importance of human connections, social connections, is even more so important. but the home piec

it is going to drive europe and the united states, it is going to matter to europe and u.s. citizens. china is important because in some regards it is a signal of what is happening elsewhere as well. if we start to see chinese exports falter, for example, that is a signal of a decline in demand for growth that is important to investors, important to the health of the rest of the world, but i'm not looking for china to pull up european growth or pull-up u.s. growth. i don't think that is particularly likely. francine: what are your spec and from joe biden in terms of stimulus? will the u.s. fare much better than europe in the next 12 months? paul: a lot of u.s. stimulus, remember, is a game of catch up because a lot of u.s. stimulus is not stimulus at all, it is an antidepressant rather than a stimulus. over the course of the later stages of president trump's administration and now president biden's administration, what we have been seeing is a scramble to sort of build the welfare state that europe has already got. a lot of what we have been saying, the unemployment benefits

tom: what is the equivalency in europe, to present -- in europe, 2%? jonathan: the outlook improves for the bond market because the ecb is pledging to do more. what about the vaccine rollout? from the european drug agency, it is set to recommend the j&j vaccine for the bloc. joining us now is sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. set the scene first on what has been happening in europe with the vaccine rollout. sam: hi jon. obviously it has been slower than expected. i do feel the momentum building. local pharmacies and doctors are making noises about inspecting to get doses of astrazeneca next week, and now are running around thinking about the logistics of trying to get it into people's arms. europe is much more rural than israel or the u.k. which has managed to do more rapid vaccination. the challenge is to get the doses to these people. tom: why isn't there more pfizer in europe? astrazeneca is a train wreck right now. norway just out with a headline on this matter. why aren't pfizer and moderna with their u.s. success in europe more? sebastien: th

part of that is the percolation in europe your -- in europe. jonathan: one thing that has shifted is the move away from the one-way global growth trade. there are so much more dispersion worldwide, not just the divergence between europe and the u.s. through q1, but elsewhere outside of europe. lisa: there was also complacency we were going to exit the pandemic route -- exit the pandemic with relative ease. that is being called into question by the nature of the infections. we are talking about india and brazil. the international airline association coming out and increasing their potential losses for the airlines this year. there is a feeling that these losses will be ongoing that has not been adequately figure four. it is a more complicated recovery than just synchronized. jonathan: could not agree with you more. the airline business this week has captured the story so well, between a domestic story, which has recovered fast on the leisure side, and the international story, including big business, which continues to struggle. tom: you put out

in europe, the banks -- europe weekly and get to the banks. in europe, the banks are up your to date. in america, the banks are up by 34% year to date. yields have been climbing. in germany, yields have been climbing in the treasury market. that cyclical trade has played out on both sides of the atlantic, even though q1 was a story of u.s. exceptionalism. this is where i want to finish. we can switch up the board and get to germany and italy. in bund yields priced back towards zero, in isolation you would say that's good for the banks in europe. what happens if italy comes along for the ride? we had seven straight days of italian yields climbing. soft auctions in europe across the curve in germany, and a soft auction in germany this morning. we had a soft auction in italy last week. 1.12%. i just wonder whether there is a little bit of a tantrum starting to evolve in europe at the moment. if you just looked at germany, you could say that is consistent with a better outlook. i get that. when i look at italy, i don't think that is consistent wit

yuko: definitely esg in europe, front in europe has been very aware. investors in europe are really focused on green and really focused on the environment. so it has always been progressive in nature. what i have really focused on is , going back to our original point, the u.s. has seen, especially in terms of esg disclosure, huge improvements over the past two years. i have definitely seen a much more favorable tone, both from the investors but also from the companies themselves, in terms of disclosing more metrics. i think that the u.s. is on a very positive trajectory. francine: will asset managers vote more and more against boards that don't -- yuko: we have been looking at governance over the past month -- over the past 15 to 20 years, so we have a long history of voting, and usually on a typical year we go against the management recommendations, 30% to 40% of the time, and so we remain very active in that sense as well. on top of that, voting is very important but also as asset managers, engagement is very important, and we think that engagement

he was flirting with this idea of europe doing ok. he said they would be buying. >> honestly, a lot of people are looking at the idea that they will not be tightening. coming out of the pandemic, i do want to make a point if the fed will be able to pivot. there was a forecast yesterday saying the effects of rate hikes next year will be gdp growth reduced to a beach around one and have percent annualized in the second half. first is the 2.7 percent baseline report, to me, that is a warning flight. i want, people would agree that. >> for anyone just tuning in, it's a game were playing. play along. december 9, birthdays. famous people with a december 9 birthday. judy dench, kirk douglas, you've got a guess number three. who is number three? there will be clues all hour long. >> and try to think of what went wrong. >> if you got any guesses sentiment. from new york city, this is bloomberg. >> legislation will create a way for the debt ceiling to be waged quickly. a partial government shutdown next week, and the bill would cancel cuts from

is ahead of europe, the united states is ahead of europe. that europe story is breaking down. people looking for that euro move to the moon, ecb not being able to do anything about it. tom: i know you are taking the real yield in 90 minutes tomorrow. i know you will mention that. on the data check you have to mention the earnings persistency we are seeing. jonathan: yes but also a reality check as well from some of the cyclical parts of this economy. more job cuts could be coming. the return of demand they thought would happen in the summer is getting pushed back. we talk about mr. o'leary in europe, i don't arm -- arm of her hearing him three months ago. he was talking about the biggest impact of the summer in europe. he said he things the beaches will be packed in europe. a lot of this is getting pushed away. tom: i agree. jonathan: we have this vaccine progress. tremendous progress in the middle east, israel, the united states. far behind in europe. with reopening, has that shifted? has that changed? do we keep travel shutdown for the remainder of 2021? on that cyclical tra

and the politics of europe. we start strong on this monday with carl bildt, former prime minister of sweden for an extended time. the minister of foreign affairs but far more than that, he has applied his public life to the fractured continent, moving from athens. his work in kosovo and all of the balkan states as well. he is the cochair of the european council on foreign relations. thank you for joining us. there has to be a response, less with the original assertive belarus and far more from moscow. what can europe and european political leaders asked of mr. putin this morning? carl: you are entirely right. there has to be a very firm response. this is piracy, banditry in airspace. if this is tolerated by lukashenko, it could happen anywhere in the world. it is a threat to the global safety and security of airspace everywhere. firm action has to be taken. european leaders are meeting in brussels for other issues. i think they should declare belarus as one where you should not fly over belarus airspace because

i want to start with a vaccine strategy in europe. which you've reportedly called a reap -- a real pile of crab. is that a deaf -- >> i think there was the problem in ordering enough vaccines last year, but now everyone is working hard that we will have enough vaccines to bring to the people in this is organized in all the countries and also in germany. jonathan: what went wrong, minister? >> there should have been more activity to organize more vaccines and especially if you understand that most of the important developments of modern vaccines have been made in europe. two of the three big companies that developed new vaccines are from germany. so this is a good basis for doing the right things, but in the end i think we are now on the right track. everyone is working really hard and we are now organizing to have them as fast as possible and there will be in a short time millions of people with the ability. >> considering those companies are german, why didn't the government act to get them first, of those vaccines out of the german

the pronounced dollar weakness we have seen against say the aussie and europe, i think europe has a bigger problem. they do not want to see this. tom: where will you get a data check on radio and tv worldwide? we will translate that data into the economic view. she is quite good at adapting and adjusting to the changing linkages of markets with economics. you change your economics because of the markets or do the markets change because of the economics? francis: they are closely tied together since covert occurred. we are at the stage where we see the tightening of financial conditions. it will matter to the economic outlook. this is what central bankers are watching. i watched every minute of powell's speech in the last couple minutes -- days, i learned nothing new. overnight, a huge amount of information from central bankers worried about their economy because of the financial decisions including australia, who tried to expand purchases and saw yields rise. the ecb coming out and saying we are uncomfortable with it. it includes the bank of canada trying to imply that they are more nervou

the curve is very flat within europe. there is probably too much pessimism baked into the european story. that is starting to unwind as we see an acceleration in the vaccines. it is a little bit early to be doing a victory lap on the outlook over europe. there really are not any inflation pressures in terms of europe. it will be a pretty difficult second quarter. despite the acceleration of vaccine rollouts, we don't know if we will get a european summer season. that matters for a lot of countries in europe. jonathan: we want to bring you some news and then get your reaction to something important. barclays was the lead underwriter on a moody's deal to build two prisons in alabama. they came under pressure from advocacy groups. barclays has pulled out of this deal to build those two prisons after that pressure from advocacy groups. you are in the credit market even in these esg issues are affecting the banks who are part of these deals, and they affect the investors who buy into these deals. it is no longer about income o

what would he be speaking today if you weren't leaving for europe? hard to say. lisa: hard to say, or no. this is the issue, all of these false deadlines that have been created. kailey brought up the progressive wing. does it at the senate, does it get the house to a vote on bipartisan infrastructure, which really a lot of people say is the main goal heading into year end right now? josh: and heading into this weekend, where funding measures are set to expire if there is no deal on infrastructure. at last count, no. progressive has said they will not take they will take a framework or deal in lieu of an actual vote, and they are not going to let the house bill go forward on that interceptor bill until they do, so right now, these two are locked in tandem. whether they both get off the ground remains unclear, but biden will try to give it a boost today. lisa: to dovetail this into the question of the audience president biden is speaking to, there is the domestic audience and the international audience as well heading into g20. is the united states united? how much

europe. i think the industrials within europe. but look at the materials. all of these big global material stocks are breaking out of their bases. you had this tepid rally in dollar over the first three months of the year. other has rolled back over as the big global, bellwether material stocks have broken out. jonathan: chris, always good to see you. chris verrone, autos in europe up almost 20% used to date -- 20% year to date. what a run. tom: i looked at a lot of log charts today. you're absolutely right, the leg up here, we are just addicted to it. there was a real measured view in january. it was wrong. it has been, as you say, what a run. we heard from mr. verrone that no pauses are in order. jonathan: q1 was america's quarter. if you look at the price action, a lot of that has synced up. european banks severely underperforming u.s. banks off the back of better growth in america versus worth growth in europe -- versus worth growth in europe. we have been pushing that through the fx chan

the leisure stocks in europe of 20% year-to-date so far. if the euro has got wooden -- has gotten weaker recently but we priced in a better outlook not just in america but europe too. it's not just the banks that have been rolling in america but the european banks too. on the travel and leisure story, up 20% given what we have seen in europe still, which is countries, cities still in lockdown and travel not picking up anytime soon, according to guidance from france and germany. it is pretty remarkable. lisa: i wonder how much bipan pointed to liquidity is the issue here. a lot of stocks are coming off of low base. if you look at what european banks and travel socks have been doing in the months prior. before last year, when you take a look at that, perhaps it is a liquidity story. people looking at the most oversold themes and saying they will not perhaps go bankrupt. the bar is getting lower at least on a macro level and for the whole year, not necessarily in the last couple weeks when it comes to what to invest in. lisa: it's been that wa

we see that reflected in europe. all of the stay at home place, food delivery businesses are doing comparatively well. >> if you take a look at zoom video communications, it is up more than 9%. i guess everyone recommitted to zooming for the rest of their life. let's hope that is not the case. it is nice to see people in person. coming up, we will get more detail when it comes to the virus. we will have andrew from john hopkins university bloomberg school of public health. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: global health officials say it could take several weeks to determine how dangerous a new coronavirus variant is. scientists are holding a special meeting today to discuss a new variant they say was first identified november 11. the variant has caused stockmarkets to swoon and caused the european union to recommend a pause in flights to south africa. in person shopping for black friday, but the new coronavirus variant adding to a long list of concerns facing the retail industry. analyst say details are shaping up to be

pain that benefits europe. lisa: if european economy does start to outperform, when does the ecb start to feel pressure to move away from this ultra accommodative policy that is in stark divergence from the federal reserve? katrina: i think you are right. it is in stark divergence. the ecb is looking carefully at what the fed is doing and will be a fast follow-up. we anticipate that to continue. as i think about the meeting today, i think what will be different this time versus what's happened in the past is the immediacy of the data that the ecb is likely to focus on. i think they are going to be much more focused on the higher end energy costs, the pmi number that comes up, as well as the wage inflation we have seen and the impact of the omicron variant on businesses. they are more likely to put more of a weight on both things. i think they will be more dovish then you've seen the fed. caroline: we've heard sebastian galli talk about a hawkish surprise from madame lagarde, particularly when you see electricit

the drama this morning in europe. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. another brick in the wall of worry. >> covid is back is a big risk. >> covid is back with a vengeance. >> there are risks on the inflation front. >> definitely pockets of green. >> you have this wall of liquidity. >> everybody is nervous. >> the fed is your friend. >> this is where you make money. >>

like stimulus in europe? david: i think it is a constraint, and i think the decision to stay, to reduce the volume of asset purchases, however moderate that maybe, and maybe we will get some insight into that from lagarde in the press conference, is a taper to me. reducing the volume of asset purchases. we know that there is an end point as well for the pepp. so it sounds to me that it is a taper. i think it has been well flagged within the market, which is why we are not really getting any kind of meaningful reaction. but i think it is quite a contrast with the u.s. on top of the huge stimulus we've had this year and last, but also, inflation really is running above target and has actually been averaging over 2% over the last three years on average. so the u.s. isn't facing a disinflationary, deflationary track, and yet i think that europe is still facing that potential, and yet we are having an ecb that de facto is tapering before the fed. jonathan: tapering at the ecb is not the same is tapering at the fed

to europe cross-border m&a. francine: do you have a favorite european bank at the moment, either because it is unfairly valued or the market potential? what is the most lucrative part of the european bank right now? ronit: the regents we like -- regions we like, we like the u.k. domestic banks. we think there will be better profitability this year. those are among the big banks, two areas we are fond of, the swiss and domestic u.k. most -- those tend to be in northern europe. francine: what is the difference between ubs and credit suisse right now? ronit: that is a long question. we are positive on both. there is a valuation difference. tom: we love having you on. switzerland, do they have room for two major banks? is it inevitable that they consolidate? ronit: the two banks are beyond the local markets. those are two of the biggest global wealth managers out there. there is no reason why there cannot be two swiss banks at the top of the list. there market is the whole world -- their market is the whole world. t

do you see a discrepancy between europe and asia and can europe catch up depending on vaccine acceleration? can the u.s. catch up if they get a handle on the pandemic in terms of economic recovery that follows? >> i think europe especially has to speed up on providing the vaccines. the vaccination plan in europe is behind what it is in asia and the u.s.. that is a competitive risk to be late. in terms of the financial support, europe has been incredibly decisive. i've never seen it before. now i think the opportunity to use this to also support the green economy plan which is for us, the most important decision europe has taken over the past years. we will be very keen to support that. francine: thank you so much as always for joining us, mario grieco -- mario greco. coming up we will have more on the pandemic. france may face another lock within days. reports say they are concerned about the u.k. variant of the virus. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪ francine: economics, finance, politics. this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get to the business flash. >> -- global has topped the

variant in europe, which is really terrible. i think it is in all of our interest to help europe pull out of this. latin america also still has a lot of cases. other parts of the world. it really is necessary for us to be thinking about that. the u.s. had the worst outbreak. it is totally understandable we focus on the u.s. first, but now, as vaccines become available to everyone and we continue to push into areas and communities that need the vaccine in this country, we have to also be increasing our focus on the rest of the world. lisa: in the u.s., we did just exceed 4 million doses put into arms and one day. the number is exceeding rapidly, which is great. how soon after the first shot can someone say they had any protection? that is what people are feeling when they walk out. joshua: it is not 10 minutes. it is more like two weeks. two weeks, you start to get protection. the protection really is not full until two weeks after the second shot. there are situations of people getting quite ill and even dying after the first sh

to europe, europe already has much bigger automatic stabilizers for the economy. in terms of either the furlough programs or unappointed benefits, in a way that the u.s. traditionally has not. that is compensated to some degree by the big fiscal stimulus package that you have already had in the u.s., for some reason europe did not need it as much. so all this money coming in now should be, with the potential for improvement not only to demand, but as you point out, hopefully to structural changes that increase the long-term growth rate. these are issues we have been aware of for a long time, and we have a long list of what needs to be done. we will have to watch very closely, particularly for those countries that have had relatively low growth rates and have now even higher debt burdens, whether or not they take advantage of this opportunity to retool the economy so they can meet those burdens. tom: bnp paribas has a heritage of mathematics and derivative analysis. where are the excesses in the market right now? what is the excess that mathematically concerns you?

he's optimistic on europe amidst this gloom. lisa: you really start to wonder at what point this divergence has legs beyond just this moment. this idea that europe is lagging behind the u.s., but people saying later on in the year, the pandemic will end. at what point does this lag time create frictions, create problems that create slower growth going forward, and that bifurcation only widens. jonathan: better data still to come, and out of europe, it is a struggle. we looked at this on the s&p 5 -- we look like this on the s&p 500. futures are positive. $1.1731 is where we are on euro-dollar. spending out of d.c. this time we are talking about tax hikes, too. you tenure yield, 1.7173%. lisa: we will be getting today the private sector employment report. we are expecting 550 thousand new jobs added, the most since last september. people are expecting a harbinger of what to expect on friday when we get that march payroll support, expecting potentially over one million jobs added. the question i have is how will markets handle thi

supply chain in europe. the second thing is the labor market the other element of the inflation equation. the labor market has been quite sluggish. they were asking for 5% rate and it looks like it may not go through. you've got a lot less pressure in the ecb, the economy came out behind the u.s.. they will watch with the fed is doing. >> talking of inflation into labor pressures, we have caterpillar earnings crossing the terminal. they beat it by 2%. i'm looking through the press release and they talk about manufacturing cost because of higher labor costs, higher material costs. they were able to offset that or withstand it to some degree. have we grossly underestimated the ability of companies to do that? >> i think that is a company by company decision. you have rising costs on one side and i think we are overly focused on those rising costs. companies can handle rising costs. i think that's what you are seeing with caterpillar. they had those rising costs. what construction worker doesn't want to have a

business sector of importing and exporting to and from europe and the counterparties in europe are seeing the same thing. trading activity largely now doesn't take place. it is a permanent loss. i would like to think in a future time the u.k. will see sense and rejoin the euro zone. lisa: in the meantime, sticking with the idea that we are in a covid era, particularly in the eu, which has been slow to vaccinate, there is a question whether the ecb is bringing an eyedropper to a flood, trying to maneuver a bond market where the eu talks about delays to the vaccine rollout. the eu warning the government about the risk of further astrazeneca vaccine delays. how much does this affect your long-term outlook for the region s growth prospects and how is it changing in real time -- region's growth prospects and how is it changing in real time? ian: the longer you are in the covid hole, the longer term scarring on productivity growth. what matters long-term is productivity growth. the longer the fiscal response is on the smaller side of where it should be, and the monetary response, and i would li

across europe. so we were still talking about elgin because there might be further clampdown measures. we have seen that coming through. so i suppose you would assume that desks would be well enough staffed because they have plenty of views coming through on covid-19 and things have been moving very quickly. but you do wonder how much of this is a program trade somebody wants to go into for weekend. lisa: i do think, looking at where we are three days ago, we are talking about the incredible data dump in the u.s. two days ago that showed really strong resilience, really strong momentum. the consumer coming out very strong. morgan stanley upgrading some of their upgrades. everyone bringing forward rate hike expectations. two days later, pam. -- two days later, bam. kailey: jan hatzius publishes, and 24 hours, this news hits the wire and markets go haywire. in europe at least, volume is quite elevated right now. on the stoxx 600, the average volume is about 90 percent above that, so it will be interes

europe heads for double-dip recession. prospectsuts growth for 2021, boris johnson warns he may lock -- titan lockdown rules. chief executive reiterates support for ralph hamers. welcome to "bloomberg: surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. markets are trading sideways. not a huge deal to talk about but indications of what could move markets, central banks, a big week for central banks and ,lobal stock markets stabilizing after losses yesterday. investors, feeling more confident about the economic recovery and vaccine rollout, in some cases, to buy the dip. 36,000,climbing above energy and travel shares among the top gainers in europe. but get it first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. u.k. may need to titan lockdown restrictions if people don't follow the rules. that's the latest warning from boris johnson, saying complacency about the disease is misplaced. he's risked undermining his own appeal with a seven mile bike ride across london. health secretary matt hancoc pfizer and biontech output by more than 50%, prod

it is getting restrictive to travel in the continent of europe. caroline: