tom keene, the labor market flashing green. will the bank of england hike interest rates in the middle of next month? tom: we will have to see. our interview of the day yesterday, flat out doing -- what did you think of that? let's stop the show for a minute. i thought that was a make or break career call. jonathan: i think it is a big one. it depends on how patient you think the federal reserve will be. whether this chairman will be committed to the framework. whoever the chairperson is. be patient to sit this out. if we wait long enough, the economy will change. can they wait? tom: i go to gdp, which is a boom economy. target is doing a home depot. there are always some nuances. target with over 400,000 employees, you talk about labor demand. home depot, what i would really go here is can anyone compete with amazon? the digital experiment at target is organized, acute. they are up 155% from the previous year, up 29% on digital. let's go right now to lindsey piegza, chief economist. this is a transformation of the american eco

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. tom: we wait for the president speaking. we wait to see if this economic recovery continues. greg valliere saying it is

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market just off all-time highs. futures softer by 0.1%. it is all about chairman powell a little bit later. tom: we will have special coverage with some terrific guests lined up. after the press conference, it is the then what. the jobs report is getting no respect today's on. -- no respect two days on. jonathan: the extra leverage senator manchin may have gotten overnight by the political events in this country. tom: some predicted it, many did not. the republicans win. new jersey is a job dropper. we don't know yet. 88% of the vote in. we will see how that goes. but it is is a readjustment. the liberals had a tough night. jonathan: you raise an important question here. what is the big surprise, the swing in virginia or how tight new jersey is? lisa: new jersey i think is the bigger surprise, but the fact that both are occurring at the same time are raising the cloud of democrats potentially losing the 2022 elections. jonathan: the president of the united states returning

tom keene, euro-dollar 1.1449. senator schumer over the weekend calling for an spr release once again. tom: i am going to stay away from the spr. there has been a lot of study on that, and i am not sure about that exit the it makes a media splash. what i really look at is retail sales i believe that is tomorrow. i do not think that is a small issue. jonathan: that is the point of the weekend. lisa: how much dynamism is there, especially as you see wages lagging behind some of the price increases we have seen. today, not a lot of economic data. the main point is 8:30 a.m., u.s. empire manufacturing, the first read on this month's manufacturing at its -- amidst some labor market shortages. that will be the focus. the expectation is that there will be an ongoing increase in manufacturing. still some momentum there. today on this show, we are lucky to have x new york fed president bill dudley, joining us around 7:45. then former richmond president jeff lacker joining us. the focus very much on who will be the next fed

this is a real text from tom keene. can you help me get a table for three at 12:30, we need to order soon? if you're a chef on the upper eastside and your name starts with a d, i think tom keene needs little bit of help getting a reservation. he has really left this one late. lisa: are we trying to save his marriage? jonathan: or spoil it, given that mrs. keene might be watching. tom, if you are watching, i will do my best to help you. robert, always good to catch up with you. if there is a man we need to discuss about china-u.s. relations, you are the guy. i want to understand how much power president xi has domestically within this party. a lot of people outside looking in are struggling to gauge that. what do you see? robert: there have been three powerful leaders of that level since the founding of the people's republic. one was mao zedong. the other was deng xiaoping and the third is xi jinping. he has an enormous amount of power and he structures the government in such a way he has created a lot of small committee

good morning, tom keene, jonathan ferro. the equity market down 39. we improved a little bit on the s&p. yields come in five or six basis points. crude down 2.62%. $68.10. tom: 500 points or so, we have come back nicely. jonathan: we are still struggling with the why of it? we have a picture of the idea of what is going on more broadly around us right now. new variant, concerns about bank policy, i get that. when so many people point towards this interview with moderna, what is new? what did we learn overnight that we knew yesterday morning? tom: waiting in washington is emily wilkins. what is washington waiting for? you can't tell me the politicians are becoming epidemiologists overnight. how will they handle omicron? emily: politicians will be taking a close look at what is needed at this point. remember back when covid-19 became a global pandemic they talked a lot of funding. saying they wanted to give americans assistance and make sure they were getting them through the pandemic. after president biden came into office use are republicans hold back

jonathan: the global tour of tom keene. tom: we can fold in peter tchir here, who is always interesting. get some brass from the board of directors and go see tatis opening day, giants-padres. peter: that would be awesome. we can get some of our other generals there. we've got cyber generals. lots of people. so we will get this set up. the padres can't choke like they did last year. lisa: i want to see tom keene's wikipedia searches. i think it would be fascinating, as different people speak, which game is coming up, march 31, 2022. tom: i was on fifth avenue yesterday talking to this guy from australia, and i had my padres hat on. jonathan: was he from perth? tom: yeah, from the other side australia. but what academy is doing is original. you've got to see more of this frankly across all industries. jonathan: i think it is fantastic. peter, give our best to the team. i've seen that padres hat and t-shirt. in a restaurant, south of 58th. a few drinks were consumed. by one of us, anyway. tom: ♪ i've ever been to brooklyn â

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market futures up 17, up 0.4% on the s&p. it is day two reaction to that cpi print. tom: dr.

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with kailey leinz, jonathan ferro is off. we are going to get to an important set of economic data. i do want to mention, john deere , they have you density to report their earnings on the wednesday before thanksgiving. they have a banging up number coming off a difficult 12 month trailing. fourth quarter riley -- fourth-quarter rising with a net gain of 19%, showing nominal gdp recovery. uaw contract agreement shows commitment to john deere's workforce. this is part of the inflation, wage inflation which is maybe not quite there yet. lisa: yet yet that they are benefiting from what we were talking about, the demand for food has reignited the demand for good. interesting to see their 2022 production sales expected to be 20% to 25%. net sales in the fourth quarter are looking lower. tom: it is a mixed fixture. -- mixed picture. let's move onto this pandemic. thanksgiving will not be as stressful as last thanksgiving, but certainly the losses, the injury, the harm we have seen the last few months. bhakti hansoti joins us, profe

tom keene, the italian 10 year yield, highs 1.20. we've got another move on the italian 10 year yield to lower, and a bit of pushback from president lagarde after some people asked questions about last week, perhaps not pushing back enough. >> you got the german 10 year yield. rated, it has gone to -0.10. almost a positive. germany sitting right on support right now. jonathan: the german 10 year, -19 basis point as you've indicated. let's bring in the chief international strategist at deutsche bank. let's start with the federal reserve. >> looks like a boring one. i think the federal reserve has done an outstanding job in pre-signaling to market that, one, we will get a taper and two, that the taper should end by the middle of the year. that means probably that able to $10 billion per month of tapering on treasuries. then we will talk a little about about the rate story. there will be pushback in terms of getting first the taper. too early to talk about rates. we will mention inflation. i think the word transitory will get ditched pr

tom ferro, john keene -- john -- jon ferro, tom keene both off. what we are looking at this morning is a market in turmoil, reassessing all of the rate hike expectations, reassessing the reopening trade

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. tom, on the nasdaq, an eight-day winning streak into thursday. tom: the unspoken yesterday was the explosion in small-cap. small is beautiful. this is about economic growth, a bet that off of a measured, in control fed, you will see continued economic growth in america. jonathan: eight patient chairman underpinning that after yesterday. tom: michael mckee is the toughest interview in economics. once again, mixed keep brought him to -- mckee brought him to silence. and the bank of england do the same? jonathan: maybe. we can play it again later. the bank of england coming up later. a live meeting, according to the chief economist. lisa: markets are pricing in a full rate hike. they are still purchasing bonds. do they continue that and hike rates at the same time? jonathan: only a month left of qe. lisa: signaling that is somebody and a market that is calling the fed and the bank of england's hands. tom: it is all about the margins, the marginal changes. the chairman yesterday in his ow

tom keene back on monday. down six on the s&p. euro-dollar back with a 1.12 handle, down .7%. germany wrestling with covid. lockdowns back in austria. can you imagine if the united states of america imposed a compulsory covid vaccination push? i cannot imagine it in america. lisa: there would be a complete riot. it is not in the dna of the united states to accept that. i wonder if it is in the dna of germany and austria? a lot of people pushing back. jonathan: austria first out of the gate implementing that. you imagine others follow? matt: no way this could happen in germany. having lived there the last five years, germany may have a stronger anti-vaccine movement than the u.s.. they have a really vocal bloc that opposes pretty much everything the government does. they protest in berlin almost every week and there is no way they would submit to a vaccine. jonathan: given how it has played out, the unthinkable has already happened 1000 times over. i'm not suggesting it would happen in germany. i am suggesting

from new york city, tom keene and lisa abramowicz and tom ferro. futures positive 50 and we advance around .3%. yields are unchanged. the main event in the fs market is darl -- dollar-lire. 10.9765 is the high. that is off of the back of a 100 basis point cut, and one of the most hawkish things that i have heard for a wild. they will study ending the rate cuts in december. tom: they have to get to december and i think the dynamic folks were confused by the chart, i was going to call it -- it a modest strengthening and a disappointment of this announcement. you wonder what they want, they want mr. erdogan to have an understanding of econ 101, that is really what is missing. jonathan: it is counterintuitive, for those of us wondering if i was being sarcastic, i was. it is the most hawkish thing that i have heard in quite a while. lisa: the idea that we are talking about a bank that dismisses the fundamental economic principles that tightening rates and policy and raising rates will lead to lower inflation and they outright reject that. tom: we have t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. tom: we wait for the president speaking. we wait to see if this economic recovery continues. greg valliere saying it is humming, but this bounce this morning, it is a great bounce, but not a convincing bounce. we need to hear science news. jonathan: we will talk about whether you should fade friday or fade this morning. we will get to that point in just a moment. the view from jan hatzius, the range of medical and economic outcomes remains unusually wide. that is going to be the case for the next couple of weeks. tom: but how do companies adapt? jonathan: they have done all this year. let's be clear about that. tom: i wonder how the successful stay-at-home companies adapt to this, and the answer is they are going to wake up and say let's go to work. that is going to be the tone. jonathan: it seemed very clear maybe a week ago. the federal reserve the middle of december, the bank of england, the ecb, and i'll of a sudden, we are talking about something else

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting you ready for 2022. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the year-end outlooks poor in. tom: i have never seen it like this. the deep visions we see not only at versus other houses, but just the disparity of the call of, finance, investment, we have never seen this before. jonathan: are you finding it hard to identify a consensus view? tom: yes. where it is is exactly that. there is no consensus. there will be a mathematical consensus. nobody does it better than bloomberg, but the consensus is the sum of parts of huge idiosyncratic belief. jonathan: interested to see morgan stanley go with q1 2023 for that first fed hike. . lisa: i would say the consensus is i have not heard one call for recession, not one call for

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with a very important conversation. this is the hallmark of barry ritholtz. he is a piÑata for a lot of people on social. he always backs his statements with adult academic research. barry ritholtz goes back to someone we lost far too young. i remember in 1980 the sudden death of arthur okin of yale university. it was a shocking loss. tell us what arthur okin invented to put us out of our misery. barry: took couple of things. he is known for okin's law, the relationship between employment and gdp, but his big contribution to the current day and age is the misery index. take unemployment and at inflation and it gives you a state of how bad the economy is for the average person sitting around trying to buy goods and earn a living. tom: p did this in the 1970's and i love the fret -- he did this in the 1970's and i can assure you the 1970's was dismal in so many regards. you are pushing back against the doom clue -- the doom crew calling this the dismal 20 20's. barry: the stagflation phrase keeps getting trotted out. if

tom keene is with us tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the markets are pricing in inflation, which is going to be with us for some time. >> we are moving towards inflation is the risk for markets. >> we are in the process of normalization, but it is painfully slow. >> inflation risk seems to be persisting for much longer than anyone forecasted. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trading week started this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, could morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market advancing about 0.1%. this feel that came out of last week continues. lisa: progrowth, yet you are not seeing it in the bond market. we have been talking all morning, how much are we

alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro here with lisa abramowicz. it is yesterday in reverse. tom: up and down. looking at resistance and -- frankly, i know you have been looking at this. the 10 year yield is extraordinary, from up to down, 1.70, to 1.47, back to 1.70. jonathan: you talked about the volatility of the 10 year pay let's talk about the two year yield, which has moved in a straight line friday, monday, tuesday. that tells you about the rate hike debate. tom: let's open this up. has the right height -- rate hike debate disappeared? jonathan: it has shifted in the last couple of days. tom: oil is its own sub story as well. what we need to do, and we have felt this way 20 months -- we will talk science, not guessing, about omicron. it is what it is, and they're so much we and the president of the united states do not know. jonathan: there are so many things. -- a lot of people pointing to that interview. can i read a couple lines? there is no world where i think effectiveness will be the same level. i think there will be immaterial drop. we just do not know how much.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trading week started this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, could morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market advancing about 0.1%. this feel that came out of last week continues. lisa: progrowth, yet you are not seeing it in the bond market. we have been talking all morning, how much are we bringing the future growth back into the equity market and pricing it in now? what is the path from here? that is where you get the real divergence among strategists. jonathan: as you say, the equity market telling you one thing for you looking -- telling you one thing. looking at the bond market, the jobs report was interesting. lisa: what we heard is we don't know. we don't understand the recovery of this market, as well as the economists. we will see. jonathan: what i heard is plug in your own forecast and make your mind up. that is what you heard? lisa: absolutely. which is why they stuck with their trade. w

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 11 on the s&p, advancing 0.25%. the outlooks starting to pour out for 2022, and they feature, many of them, interest rate hikes. tom: i've ordered the smoked turkey as we go into the thanksgiving holidays. you are absolutely right. this is the weekend of the great reset for next year. jonathan: wells fargo going with two interest rate hikes next year. "we expect multiple hikes next year to correct a policy misstep." a view they hold, but this debate is still incredibly divided. tom: can we announce the policy misstep now? i understand sell side is out there with the crystal ball to try to look at where we are going, but a ta -- but i take issue with announcing a misstep now. jonathan: many other people are, and slitting my medullary and. i will -- r, including mohamed el-erian. i will catch up with him later. lisa:lisa: as you take a look at some of the derivatives trading, people are now pricing in three full rate hikes by the first three months of 2023. people

this is tom keene's team. rumored to maybe be in the running for the job. i stressed "rumored" and "maybe." first statement from tom keene -- "crushed, just crushed." is he upset, trying to get the job? i'm trying to make him a candidate. lisa: trying to push a narrative. you go. jonathan: just break for a little bit, a six-month about a goal at the end of the season. lisa: he will take a road trip. jonathan: he likes touring europe. this could work. they are not in europe much. jonathan: every time i go to call this a teflon stock market i worry that is the day we get the correction. you throw everything at it and we keep running at a record high. s&p futures positive .4%. a slimmer lift on the nasdaq. -- a similar lift on the nasdaq. everything you throw on it, it is not sticking. get to the bond market. amazing to think how much we have priced into the front end of the yield curve and the equity market will not grind lower, lisa. lisa: you heard me? jonathan: on two through 50 basis points. we have real rate repricing at the front end of the treasury cur

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 0.3%. for macy's, it is a beat and a raise. tom: it is a technology raise as well. i go back to 2019, and this is not target, not home depot, but they are up 8% plus going back to sales in 2019. a fairly clear press release, they increased 19% through the pandemic. they have grown 49% since pre-pandemic. that gives you an idea of the new reality is what you do against amazon. jonathan: it is fair to say that retailers in america are executing. tom: they are executing in a new world. i'm romantic. you and lisa i am sure as a kid did this. i wanted to bring back the wooden escalators at herald square. jonathan: the narrow ones? did you fit into the? -- into them? tom: no i did not. it was a moment where we could feel british. wooden escalators from another time. jonathan:

matt: -- tom: lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, tom keene. j sherman saying we should see an announcement today according to punch bowl. looking for confirmation from the white house. we do have confirmation you get lucky when you speak to smart people. we do that right now with matthew liz eddie -- matthew l uzetti deutsche bank. it was interesting for you to put in a conversation on the fed leadership going or were. it was interesting -- i want you to talk about the hawk and dove of the slots to be filled. how abrupt of a shift will the new federal open market committee be? matthew: i do think there are differences, particularly in how jay powell and lael brainard viewed the broad versus inclusive part of the dual mandate. the most important things is there will be constraints on policy. one is inflation is high and will remain in the driver seat endoscope pump even if you do get a dovish shift in the chair and brainerd would represent that, you have a hawkish voting block for the committee next year from a regional fed voter perspective an

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market a little softer, -15 on the s&p, down 0.3%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: equities finally reacting to what we see on fixed income. on this cpi wednesday, the linkage of inflation dynamics into the fixed income market front and center. jonathan: and the international price pressure as well. ppi out of china, 26 year high. that can bleed out to the rest of the world. tom: brazil coming out minutes ago, 10% on their inflation as well. these are big numbers. jonathan: the incoming economic data, trying to understand it and apply it to monetary policy, and to push it through the bond market. really complex and quite difficult at times. friday was a great example of that post payrolls. lisa: basically, they are buying the line that the fed is saying, even if they stay transitory is becoming a dirty word. that is the message the bond market is saying. i wonder at what point the bond market starts to react to the data, particularly with employment coming in as hot as it i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market a little softer, -15 on the s&p, down 0.3%. the data 90 minutes away. tom: equities finally reacting to what we see on fixed income.

alongside tom keene and reese abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equity futures pretty flat this morning. a three day rally and a three day rally and i record high to start this morning. tom: absolutely phenomenal. the interest is rolling over, $120 oil front and center. it is about the equity markets and the linkage into the dynamics in the fixed income space. jonathan: it is about fixed income decisions. the bank of england, the federal reserve very much in front of us. tom: the federal reserve will be the one that matters. i agree. it is a sum total effort. what do you do about the word that says september, which is transitory? nothing is transitory this november. jonathan: the big question, lisa, what comes next. lisa: it is not a question of when the fed lifts off, but how many rate hikes will be in the cycle. new surveys are getting more aggressive with how many rate hikes the federal execute before the end of 2024, which i find interesting. what about this gives them a feeling that it will be more persistent? jonathan: equity futures totally

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. into tuesday, it is an eight-day winning streak. tom: can we say that this morning, we are on the edge of steam major? jonathan: on 30's, we come in a couple of basis points to about 1.86%. the curve has been flattered over the past several months. there's a conversation no one real yields, deeply negative through the curve. tom: 30 year out to a record. i had a feature in the previous hour -- two hours ago, i should say. you look back 60 years, and i can't say we have never seen this, but the rarity of this back to the 1970's, it is singular. jonathan: lisa, you have talked about how supportive this bond market story is. lisa: it goes to the tina trade. what ins the tina trade -- what ends that he makes raid? you wonder -- the tina trade? you wonder. people have this money saved, and look what we have. we had the scenario we are looking at right now. jonathan: we've got to talk about who is going to be leading the federal reserve beyond early next year. will it be chairman powell, or

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. tom: propensity, very nice. jonathan: i did study economics, tom. i just let some of it out every now and then. [laughter] tom: coming up, jon ferro, elasticity. jonathan: that is introduction to economics. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. president joe biden and china's xi jinping have plenty to discuss during their third virtual summit. still, the expectations for a major breakthrough are low. the summit is set for tonight washington time. relations between the two countries are tense. there are disputes over taiwan's human rights and the origin of the coronavirus. in the u.k., police say an explosion in a taxi outside the hospital in liverpool is being treated as terrorism. the passenger in the taxi died and the driver was injured. police say the blast was called by an improvised the passenger was carrying her get four people are being held in the case. senate majority leader chuck schumer once president joe biden to tap the strategic petroleum

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up seven, a little more than 0.1%. for all the anxiety around the fed, all-time highs in this equity market. tom: we made substantial for the progress yesterday to a great bull market. it was led by the small caps and the nasdaq. the idea here of growthiness, of economic growth being a more confident outcome in 2022. jonathan: the fed chair is holding your hand. the very fact they have reduced qe and we are hardly talking about it is mission accomplished. tom: and as we mentioned, it is about the marginal change. i did the quick math. so did everyone else. these are marginal tweaks here to do the taper and then to reset the rate debate which is tangible to december 15. jonathan: here's the pushback from steve englander of standard chartered. the t word. lisa: he is saying transitory. i have been banned from saying it. i think they did have interesting language that was touting the t word in some nuance, and the idea they are trying to move away from that. to this po

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a sleepy wednesday morning. from york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged. we wait for the chairman of the federal reserve. tom: getting resiliency off of earnings reports like we saw from target earlier on. what i am going to show is the vote for the american economy, and that is a vote for a stronger dollar, now buttressed up against important levels, particularly against the euro. jonathan: very briefly, 96 handle on the dollar-euro. we are seeing a re-acceleration in this economy into year-end. tom: as we said, there's a heated opinion. we will have a wonderful conversation pushing against the laser optimism -- the laidler optimism. i agree with what you said i think two days ago, this is a moment of no consensus. it is a moment of different opinions. jonathan: we will catch up with morgan stanley in just a

jonathan: tom keene is proud of that. tom: the real issue is you have to understand you have white lights like you have, the perfect little white lights. you have to have big ugly colored lights where a number of them are out. jonathan: that is tradition. that is what i had as a kid. tom: you have too many orange lights and not enough white bulbs. jonathan: we have the multicolor that would go out and then you had to replace them. tom: back when we had a 14 foot tree i would plug them in staten island. it has changed now. we are going with the smaller year -- a smaller tree this year. jonathan: michael o'rourke, thank you. good to hear from you. coming up on "the open," greg peters. tom: kailey's tree is all orange lights. jonathan: you all had a go it be a couple of weeks ago for getting the tree up, but now there is a scramble. tom: i will take a cactus and move it over and say this is that. jonathan: there is a multiple scramble. i was going to leave and they played the music too early. we have one minute and 40 second

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. the record run continues in this equity market. futures advancing .2%. all-time highs on payrolls friday. tom: what does the stock market say about the american economy? alan greenspan would say the equity market boats every minute every day. look at the division on the 8:30 report. stephen stanley of amherst pierpont, they are far apart. jonathan: what does that tell you that we have a range of 700,000 at the top end and 250,000 at the bottom? that spread is still incredibly wide. tom: we will go to the former governor of the fed. this is not in the textbook he to teach in chicago. jonathan: 450,000 is the number we are looking for. equity futures up 10 on the s&p 500, advancing .2%. into the bond market yields are unchanged at 1.5211. can we talk about the front end of the curve in the u.k.? what communication mess for the bank of england. i thought francine lacqua's interview with the governor was fantastic, really pushing him on whether it was down to them talking too much through

i to he was hanging out in the green room with tom keene. they will be on to preview this discussion a tell you what we will learn from jerome powell. we have not really done much ahead of this decision. that is not unusual. the back-and-forth in gains and losses remain relatively unchanged. the dow is moving. you can see it's down a hundred 46 points at 35,906. but the s&p 500 is only off by 1/10 of 1%. at 4620 five, still at a relatively high level. still hovering around those all-time highs. the nasdaq is actually gaining a little bit, about .1%. 15,663. tech stocks have been a huge driver in any direction because of their mega cap status. how heavy they are on all of the indexes. you see the 10 year yield at 15647, and we have really come up across the curve today. we have two-year yield coming up to 2.8 basis points, three years or up for basis points. and five years. it is asserted drop until you get the 20's and 30's. they are coming down a bit. we are crudest down two dollars 50 success. gold is down 1%. the fomc decision, the fed de

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom k: bloomberg surveillance on radio, television. ferro not here, on his way to capri from madrid. thank you for coming in yesterday. kailey joins us as she did yesterday with good, good perspective. i'm sorry, lisa, this is a rich tuesday before the data onslaught tomorrow. lisa: retail sales are particularly important at this moment. how much do consumers continue to buy despite inflationary fears? frankly, in the data we are showing that they do. pushing back against one of the concerns, higher prices. tom k: thank you for watching across america and globally. mohamed el-erian really talking to me off-camera about the data dependency, where we are right now in looking at the data. greg with a heated note this morning said the inflation hysteria is wrong, this is an indisputably strong economy, lisa. that is what he sees in the data. >> the inflationary data -- hysteria is different depending on who you're speaking with. there is a political debate of "are we headed back to the 19

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 11 on the s&p, advancing 0.25%. the outlooks starting to pour out for 2022, and they feature, many of them, interest rate hikes. tom:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. ferro off. we had to beg kailey leinz to come in. we are thrilled she could join us this morning. so many stories this morning centered on the president. does he pardon the beast? have the turkeys already been pardoned? lisa: have you seen the pictures of the turkeys that are going to be pardoned on a hotel bed? tom: we are going to move on from that. we will move onto the dovetail of markets into the global response of pandemic, now pushing 20 months old. angela merkel, she move zero -- she moves euro. lisa: she says there will probably be restrictions necessary to curve the wave. i am suppressed markets aren't moving more. we were seeing the euro respond, but pretty much everything else shrugging it off area remember when people would worry about the idea that perhaps we would see a third, fourth, fifth wave? that is not what we are seeing in markets right now. tom: what we see is recalibration to a new

tom keene failed to show up for work. lisa: causation is not correlation. but we are throwing it out there. should we will -- jonathan: should we wake up tk? up 19 on the s&p. there is a left in this equity market, remarkable. who would have thought that amazon could deliver the earnings they deliver and this market would close friday and another record? bond market yields higher. but it is the front end of the curve. we have more than doubled since the fed last met. lisa: we have seen such a huge pricing in rate hikes. equities continue to go up. nobody seems to care about the potential for rate hikes that gives the federal reserve some license to project that they might be raising rates sooner. today, we are focused on the cop26 in glasgow. it caps off today in a more real way after formally kicking off yesterday. talking about carbon emissions, keeping the climate from rising 1.5-2% in the next decade. what are we hearing it? a lot of fluff. in a few minutes, the rio ceo talking about -- ism mash -- manufacturing. i am focused on supply chain disruptions

tom keene. tom: the football is not thrown quite as well. erik schatzker, thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: what a record-breaking run this equity market has been on. can it continue? good morning. your equity market slightly positive as we count you down to the market open right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city we begin with the big issue. >> momentum we see in the equity markets. >> momentum is unbelievable. >> 2021 is a special year. >> we are not going to get 15% s&p 500 earnings growth in perpetuity. >> we will have times of smaller returns. >> you could see flat to negative price returns. >> the return we have captured in

concrete, -- tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jon ferro. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> security selection will be critical if you have 3% inflation with very strong economic growth. i think your cyclical stocks will do will. financials can do well. i think those that will be most challenged in an environment like that are those that hope to make money in five to 10 years. jonathan: ron temple there of lazard. he will take 3% inflation with 4% to 5% real gdp. in new york city this morning, good morning. your equity market, all-time highs into tuesday. equity futures basically unchanged. 10 year yield, 1.5505%. a stock to watch is tesla in the premarket, down pretty hard early on. we are down now by about 4% or so after a monster rally. through october, up something like 30%. elon musk saying, "if any of this is based on hertz, i would like to emphasize that no contract has been signed yet. we will only offer the same margin given to consumers. " tom: jon, wheat is spiking up over eight dollars a bushel. you go up to new york to th

tom ferro, john keene -- john -- jon ferro, tom keene both off. what we are looking at this morning is a market in turmoil, reassessing all of the rate hike expectations, reassessing the reopening trade with the stay-at-home trades surging. everything else absolutely collapsing in the face of a new potential variant that could be more contagious. i am struck frankly by the shift in rate hike expectations at the federal reserve. kailey: a quick shift when we have been pulling over expectations of when the fed was going to lift off. we were looking at june of next year, now the market has pushed that further into 2022. it is a quick and stark reversal. i also have to wonder, it is just fresh off the thanksgiving holiday. a lot of people are probably off of work today. could this be a thinner liquidity kind of situation, or will we see elevated volumes? lisa: people are scrambling back to work. over in europe, this is the issue as we see immediate reaction in the travel sector. anna: the travel sector really getting the brunt of this. just looking at

tom: an eventful tuesday. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro is off. kailey leinz is in for jon ferro, and we are thrilled with that. we'll now, then we are going to look at the equity market, and then we stagger onto the dollar and collapsing turkish lira. on oil, help me here. the u.s. wants to drop oil prices to reach consumers. that was the goal, right? lisa: that was the goal, so they are saying they are going to release 50 million barrels. this would be the petroleum reserve in history, according to our own annmarie hordern, and rivals what we have seen in the past. the interesting thing we are seeing is the immediate knee-jerk reaction of lower oil has not stuck. we are seeing only a decline of 0.4% now on west texas intermediate oil, with christians -- with questions about whether china will be coordinating in a big way, and how big the release will be, and opec+'s response. tom: brent crude printing $80 moments ago. i love the headline, u.s. says exchange oil to be returned to spr. i don't understand how you make a policy shift and then save y

lisa abramowicz, tom keene, kailey leinz in for jon ferro. it is not normal this time. it is a huge deal. lisa: especially because it hits all the main points the fed is looking at. it is looking at the potential for full employment and how hot the market is for jobs, and also looking at inflation, the core pce deflator, the key inflation a metric the federal reserve looks at. it is expected to rise 5.1% year-over-year, most going back to 1990. tom: what we have is a quiescent bond market. yields are higher, and then they come in the last couple of days. lisa: basically, people bringing forward excitations for rate hikes. this means on the longer-term level, and place in bond yields not expected to rise as much. one of the key interesting debates right now on wall street is what is the bigger risk, the fed moving too quickly or tightening too quickly in their term and suppressing the long-term rates, or not moving quickly enough, and then the tenure becomes a lot less moor ed? tom: also unmoored, nasdaq 100 to the moon this year. we are focused on the equity market the

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week ago. this is coming very late, and they are going to have to explain why that is. when we get the announcement, the explanation around it will be interesting. jonathan: looking forward to the announcement on the next chair. maybe it is this chair. one thing i can guarantee, more outlooks for the s&p 500. they point out profit growth is accounting for the entire profit growth. tom: we heard from credit suisse. a little bit of margin compression. the outlooks are fascinating. what i would say is i am really going to pay attention to the consistent bulls because they have been right for three years. i want to hear them re-justify forward. jonathan: goldman one of those consistent bulls. the difference between morgan stanley at 4400 next year year end, and goldman s

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. into tuesday, it is an eight-day winning streak. tom: can we say that this morning, we are on the edge

tom keene and jonathan ferro off, kailey leinz and anna edwards in. we are looking get the markets facing the potential of another pandemic wave. the s&p down 1.7%. the stoxx 600 down almost twice as much as we have had some curves on travel in the european region come also assessing when the fed will hike rates with that pushed back significantly. the 10 year yield down to 1.53%, the two year yield down to almost .5% after being as high as almost .7% earlier in the past few months. crude is getting your attention, down 5.7%. how much to travel curbs change the backdrop? amrita sen joining us now. happy thanksgiving. thank you for being with us. what is your chance of how much of a game changer the entrant of the south african variant could be? amrita: happy thanksgiving to all of you. i think this is a huge overreaction in terms of the market. the market is fearing the worst. the calculations we have done so far with all of the borders closed globally, we're just talking about 15 barrels a day of lost fuel. europe could come up with the baker blanket

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up four on the s&p, advancing zero point 1%. we keep waiting. tom: it is almost like waiting for a new yankees manager. we are waiting, and what is fascinating here, get out the calendar, you were right week

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. going into jobs, the jobs are part 42 minutes -- report 42 minutes away. peloton getting absolutely crushed in the premarket. five months ago they were predicting 5.4 billion dollars for the -- $5.4 billion for the year. now they have reduced their forecast by $1 billion. tom: they are like a trophy. jonathan: there are a lot out there that just said there. you polish it. tom: david wilson is with us. david wilson and i are on the same page. i just sent out an unsophisticated chart. it is shockingly elegant. if i was teaching a class on math, this is what i would use. >> that is why when chris put out a version of this chart, it jumped out at me. it is not just that you sought the russell 2000 hit a record. it is not just of the index moving to records. you see it with stocks in the russell as well. on wednesday when we got a new high, 40% of the companies in the index were at 20 day highs. it is a way to see in the sure run -- tom: -- the short run -- tom: the momentum. >> exactly. t

tom keene, it is a six handle. tom: back to 1990. 1982 before that. jonathan: the airline ceo scott kirby in about 30 minutes. looking forward to that on tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ritika: the governors of michigan and eight other states want congress to approve aid for american semiconductors. they're trying to ease a shortage that has hurt manufacturers. the governor sent a message to congressional leaders asking for $52 billion. the question of whether president biden's tax and spending package will be fully paid for has gotten complicated. the administration estimates that a better funded irs could bring in $400 billion over the next decade through corporations and the wealthy. under the budget rules government analysts cannot cap money that will be spent. democratic moderates have been asking for a cost analysis. ge has launched an offer to buy back as much as $23 billion of debt. the company is on target to cut its borrowing by $75 billion next month. ge unveiled a plan to split the corporation into three companies. doordash has agreed to

tom keene down the fort. tom: i didn't get this memo. jonathan: i look forward to that. we left you off that memo, tom. of 0.06% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. walmart appears to be weathering the global supply chain problems and rising inflation. the retail giant reported third-quarter comparable sales that beat estimates and raised its outlook again. it is benefiting in particular from the reopening of the economy after last year's lockdowns. a sign of increased spending in north america on hunting proven is outlasting the pandemic. come store sales rose 6.1%, well above the average estimate and the average ticket size rose towards $82. president biden and china's xi jinping spoke of the need for cooperation in their first virtual summit. the two leaders announced no major breakthroughs. they discussed a wide range of issues, including trade, taiwan, and human rights. it is another hurdle for russia's controversial stream to gas pipeline. russia has hold the certification process need for the link can start operating.