lisa jennings was dead. the question for detectives was, did she take her own life or was this murder? here is keith morrison with "a crack in everything." ♪♪ >>> it was his secret that started it, a secret gift. it was christmas eve in the year 2006. a little farm not far from a little town called buffalo. buffalo, missouri. and on that farm in the fine, new house brad and lisa jennings had built for their family, the stockings were hung, the children were snug in their beds, and lisa was sitting up very late, drinking wine and crying. meaning? well, who knew. but for one thing, with lisa in the way, brad couldn't sneak that secret of his into her stocking, which is what started it, the flaring argument, the slamming doors, the sudden silence. before amanda woke up to the sound of her dad on 911. >> and he's very hysterical, you know. he's -- he's crying, can't really say anything other than get here quick, get here quick. i heard that two or three times. >> such a complicated tale with its secrets and

lisa: come on , ferro. get with the program. jonathan: you can tell what lisa does in the rake now. if you're wondering where tom keene is, mrs. keene's birthday today. at miller joining us. so happy birthday, mrs. keene. joining us now, wendy schiller of grant university. something that has come up again and again, the republicans are very diverse as a party, just like the democratic party. senator holly is nothing like senator romney -- senator hawley is nothing like senator romney. but when they all need to be on the same message, they are. why do the democrats struggle with that? why can't they take the win over the weekend and run with it? wendy: one is the democratic party is more diverse. they represent a more diverse set of constituents, from suburban women, for example, who voted for the democratic party recently, to working-class people, some world. so it is truly hard when you're representing a lot of different kinds of people. that is one problem. the second problem is they want the federal government to do a lot of things. they believe in small, limited federal governme

lisa: that is right wanted to go. you have some people coming out yesterday on bloomberg television saying people are not prepared for how fast the federal reserve will have to hike rates, will have to normalize once inflation shows its persistency. what you make of that? hugo: there is a lot of work being done by what we have to do. if we have not budged when 6.2% is the inflation print and core inflation is north of three and still looking for lower estimates. we will see those numbers continue rising. you can see what wages are doing. they had core components of core inflation. we know the core numbers will be higher. they are still holding pat, still being incremental. the communications we saw from the fed, we see from the ecb tells they will do appellee everything to not try to ignore it, but to avoid some sort of taper tantrum. why would they perform such an aggressive -- we do not think they do. matt: the market has already priced in two or three rate hikes for the u.s., four or five for the u.k.. why does the

lisa: it doesn't make sense to me. what i read and a lot of the notes doesn't make sense to a lot of people and they blame technicals. i wonder if it is technical underpinning or people looking past people hearing something way more dovish from jerome powell than i did. jonathan: lisa will go through the fed speak for us. barry into the news flow friday pfizer coming out with something that could be a game changer. matt: i was talking about this story all weekend long. they came out with a pill that reduces hospitalizations and deaths by 89%. that is in the high risk unvaccinated cases. if this works, it is an absolute game changer. it is essentially bringing the pandemic to an end if they can get it approved and get it out there. jonathan: the stock on friday up 10% and today up .7%. are we going to talk about the reopening trade back to normal for next year? lisa: we saw that with the reopening stocks getting a boost on friday. i am surprised there wasn't a bigger reaction. you get a pill that is a potential game cha

lisa: is a tough one. jonathan: you will call it a teflon market? lisa: i am not. jonathan: i did not say either. let's finish on crude. wti looks like this. the president wants opec-plus to step in and do more. we can talk about the contradiction as well. 83.72 on wti. will opec respond? crude up .2%. that is the process at price action. let's get you some movers. we can do that with romaine bostick. romaine: it is all about the future. a lot of bets on the future. tesla closed out the month at a record high. stop that it been range bound for much of q2 and q3 rally 43%. starting out the new month up 4%. also in the ev space lucid motors up about 8% in the premarket. it finally delivered its first vehicle on saturday. stocks rallied 53% last week. we are talking about a stock that if this percentage hold it will have a market value that rivals ford motor company. harley davidson getting a boost. all of the companies exposed to the steel and aluminum tariffs and more portly the retaliatory tariffs the eu had imposed on motorcycles, liquor, and all of other things a

lisa: yes. i want to know how much richard clarida debt was representing a mainstream review where the threshold is getting less high of the hurdle to accelerated the taper and bring forward the rate hike. tom: let's start with equity coverage. a little bit of a cautious view. greg boutle goes the other way. 30 years of derivative experience. greg boutle, humans no words, 5100. what is the ratio that gives you -- get you to a double-digit return. >> we're looking for strong economic growth that will bleed into robust earnings growth. we think valuations can compress a little bit and get to 5100. we think multiples will come at next year which is the average we tend to see in the first year of the fed hike cycle. lisa: do think consumers continue to boom even though income has started to decline off of federal programs? greg: one thing to look at the savings rate. consumers are not just participating in a hot paper market, there is a lot of cash people have around. we think there is a lot of pent

do you want a chapter in this book, lisa? [laughter] lisa: carry on. jonathan: equity futures up 0.2%. tom, you will do what you do with all the other books. read a few pages and pretend like you have read the whole thing. tom: on page 2 -- jonathan: the only page she read. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. health care giant johnson & johnson will split into two companies. one will be focused on drugs and medical devices, the other on its well-known consumer brands such as band-aid and tylenol. the consumer unit contributed to 17% of j&j sales, while the drug unit was responsible for 55%. a warning from u.s. on russia. bloomberg has learned that washington has told the european union that russia may be considering an invasion of ukraine. the u.s. has been monitoring a buildup of russian forces on the ukrainian border as tensions flare between russia and the eu over energy supplies and migrants. russia said talks of an invasion are unfounded. in germany, the fourth coronavirus rate is hitting with full for

alongside lisa

lisa, euro-dollar 1.1550. lisa: people basically choose their own adventure with the fed's message. we have the bank of england rate decision, as well as their bond purchasing plan. that messaging of both tightening and loosening at the same time is confusing. we are seeing 815 point basis point hike price in four that bank of england. initial jobless claims, productivity in september. the mixture of the lowest rate of jobless claims post-pandemic plus productivity expected to fault with the increase in wages. how sticky is wage inflation? how tight is the labor market that powell is convinced has more slack than a lot of people give it credit. meeting to discuss output. opec-plus is saying, no, not going to it. there is a question of strategic reserve. would that u.s. go that far to lower prices at the pump. jonathan: fuel costs are high. senator manchin was at fox yesterday. he said we could do more at home on the oil front. tom: a little bit of west virginia there as well. i am mentioned this in a meeting earlier this morning. let us not forget a gallon of gas and its political h

tom: namath the real lisa. -- name it the real lisa. jonathan: the risks just happened to be negative. tom: the biggest negative risk is we are all going to davos. it is under negotiating. jonathan: what are we negotiating? tom: the gulfstream. we have the smaller plane. benioff has 22 seats. we cannot get lisa's entourage on. jonathan: i am happy to start the coverage. when we get out there, we have to reflect that what happened in 2020 in january when china started to shut down at that conference was totally asleep. tom: i am losing the right word. you are right. happy valley stopped for the president of china and maybe there was not enough skepticism. jonathan: nothing. china will handle it. that was the consensus. it was bizarre. no one wanted to talk about it. jonathan: that is the reason there at -- lisa: that is the reason there are so much skepticism around cop 26. you think it will be flop. this is the fear. that is why you're getting announcements on specifics like methane. people are tired of it. jonathan: for a lot of people

lisa: i love this story. oil producers are pushing back saying, i don't think we need it, taking the high road where people who are climate conscience -- conscious are saying, we need oil. jonathan: the irony of the moment is not lost on the president. the president is aware of this and talked about it in rome. he wants to improve the democracy for global prosperity. this is a fantastic example of the struggle to achieve long-term collective goals that are overwhelmed by short-term political cycles, because that number, 84, threatening to go to 90 and more. price of gas in this country, that is very much at the epicenter of a short-term political cycle. lisa: this is what's going on with the compromises we are hearing that democrats are trying to come to to get something passed. eventually we could get a vote, but how is that price in? jonathan: joining us is lisa hornby. we heard from -- in the past week and he talks about as long as credit holds up, -- are you -- lisa h.: i have been a little bit. you would

lisa is. lisa: i am feeding him questions. [laughter] erik: this is my engagement gift to myself behind me here. [laughter] lisa: promising start. kailey: -- tom: she got a ring -- erik: she got a ring and i got my start -- myself a guitar. tom: just lie about the next marginal guitar. erik nelson of wells fargo, thank you very much. and a shout out to the gibson 335 effort. that was the latest guitar i lied about as well. lisa: i love that. this is what i am going to occupy myself with while you plan out what to do. we are getting some huge news. we had reported earlier that jamie dimon said he believes jp morgan's presence in china would outlast the communist party. noting that their entrance to the nation was at the same time as the communist nation was begun. he is now coming out and saying i regret and should not have made that comment. he was trying to emphasize the longevity of his company, and this comes as many people wondered what the chinese internal reaction would be since it probably was not the most flattering of

lisa: can we take a step back? there is a messaging aspect, but why is it the united states is not facing the same wave we are seeing in europe, even though the vaccination rate is so much higher in europe? dr. sharfstein: we had that wave in many parts of the region. this is to be has had that wave and florida has had that wave. we were building intensive care units and hospital beds in parking structures. in other parts, the vaccination rate is so much higher and parts of europe having problems, we are just not seeing the surge in cases. tom: we had the plague to the keen household -- keene household in one of the cherubs had to be tested and they are fine. can you tell if you have covid? if someone gets a cold, can you say it is covid? dr. sharfstein: it is good to get tested so you get the right thing. the most distinguishing thing is the loss of smell than it is a high likelihood. if you don't lose your snow you can still have covid. tom: that was good i didn't lose might smell. kailey: i couldn't taste anythi

lisa: fascinating call. i was struck by the idea that the federal reserve has the ability to push back against the political shift, trying to fight inflation. how do they do that and wait long enough to raise rates? how much does that depend on the morgan stanley call that we will see inflation pressures roll off? jonathan: we will find out who runs the fed as well. here we are in the middle of november reading tea leaves. a wall street journal piece indicating that an interview went on longer than expected. that is basically all we have got -- reading the tea leaves and some reports about how some interviews went couple weeks ago. lisa: we do not even understand what the parameters want -- what does a biden administration want? a more dovish fed? or is it just about the employment market? we do not even know. jonathan: we have no idea. watch this space, hopefully some point later this week, we may find something else. equity futures advancing 0.2%. good morning to you all. we advance on the s&p 500. bond ma

lisa: [laughter] jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. coming up shortly from the bloomberg new economy forum, we will catch up with the prime minister of singapore. from new york city on radio and tv for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ and there you have it. woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. big deal. we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet. but mine has 5g included. relaaax people. my wireless is crushing it! that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and get $200 back when you bring your own phone. or get a samsung galaxy a42 on us. call, click or visit a store today. this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so mi

alongside lisa abramowicz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p advancing 0.07%, up 2% on the week last week. this forecast from ubs, i keep thinking about it. we've got the likes of credit suisse and others up at around 5k for year end next year. just 6% upside from here from the team over at ubs for the next two years. lisa: michael purves of tallbacken coming out and saying he sees 5% by year end. what we see a slowing growth backdrop? that is a scenario people see. they keep things chugging along. jonathan: eps growth to slow to 13 but 1% from a gain of 51.6% estimated in 2021. matt, you said earlier in the program, who cares about the fed? when it comes to the equity market, it has been a big earnings story. matt: i think the earnings growth figure is really key because as the comps get more difficult, you will not get the same kind of growth we will have from a total lockdown during the pandemic last year, but still, 13.1% isn't bad. compared to 50%, it doesn't sound like too much, but

lisa: of course. that is a minor caveat. [laughter] but at least he was not saying it was premature or they are moving too quickly. matt: i feel like that is his m.o. he allowed the $3.5 trillion framework to go through and then nuked it. that is what he does, allows them to discuss but then will not play. jonathan: the russell getting hit this morning, down more than 1%. there is trouble in europe on the vaccine front. austria would like to mandate it. restrictions are back. lockdowns could be back. weakness in europe bleeds through to the united states. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited p

in the meantime, we did get a lisa: lisa: release on japan. kailey noting that japan is set to release several days of oil reserves. it puts in -- it puts it into the sense of scale. how much would opec have to offset this by just increasing production for a couple of days? julian: i don't think opec or opec-plus is going to reduce its production. what it might well consider doing is delaying the increase that is currently scheduled for january. i think decembers increase which was agreed at the beginning of this month is pretty much locked in. sales have been made against those program. but they may decide to delay the january increase in the february increase, and that would take, if you take 400,000 barrels a day, a potential increase of the market for a month, you're getting up to 12 million barrels. so you got to do that for two or three months to eat into all of this strategic supply release. kailey: how much daylight is there between what opec+ thinks is an appropriate price for a barrel of crude and what president biden thinks is the a

lisa: another inconsistency. world leaders come in, massive jets, the president had an 85 car motorcade. they do this all again, take those motorcades and go to another city. potentially, that could help cut emissions if they were more in alignment, but given the cooperation, i am not sure. jonathan: thank you. this is lost on no one, a real struggle. that president is keen to promote democracy is an optimal way of promoting long-term prosperity. democracies are left grappling, looking to achieve long-term, collective goals are overwhelming continuously by short-term, political, electoral cycles. that is what is taking place here. the president is grappling with polls that are sliding and prices that are rising. he has to go to a place like rome and talk about the saudi's pumping more oil well discouraging investment in the oil patch. lisa: which is why there is so little getting done. help many times have you read the word "fluff" with respect to cop26 cop26. if there are enough investment in some of the greener

ritika: lisa: lisa: what does president biden want from a fed chair? a more dovish were hawkish leader? emily: on the issue of inflation, j powell and bernard are pretty similar in what they would do. it seems more of a question that we need to hear from senators and you hear them talk about regulation and about where it either stands on regulation and how strict they would be, i think that will be more of a moving point for senators as they consider what will be happening next. after the inflation numbers, they are right to point out inflation and that's something that i think is on all the minds of lawmakers at this time. jonathan: thank you so much. the race to be the next fed chair. maybe we will get news later. j&j stock is up almost five percentage points in the premarket. dow jones reported the news that j&j is planning to split into two public companies. they decided to make the change because businesses that customers and markets have diverse oh much in recent markets including during the pandemic and this will be the key for many people who w

lisa: i agree. i do wonder if the conversation will start to change, that having a steady hand will not stay the course. jonathan: looking forward to the forecast in the middle of december. it is going to be very interesting to see what they look like. we know there are some hawks on the federal reserve relative to the super doves, and they will start making a bit more noise. futures up 16, advancing 0.3%. from new york city, on tv, on radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. futures positive 16 on the s&p. no economic data today, no notable economic data, outside of the bond market in america, which is closed for veterans day. in europe yields are higher. the stage is set for december on the 15th for the federal reserve, on the 16th for the ecb, and the simple but effective take from thank america. "the heat seed in rent and across america could make the fit --

lisa: here's the dilemma. that leveraged all-cash is getting less effective in the real world when you look at the inflation rate. so what is the hedge? this has been the dilemma for so many people. the tina trade continues, especially with negative real yields, that bonds basically aren't paying anything. if you go into stocks, it is the best inflation hedge. i do wonder when there is some disconnect between the stock market and the bond market, and it does make me wonder if there is a disconnect. tom: this clearly a disconnect between bonds and equities, but i see it in real estate as well. there is no alternative in real estate as well. kailey: i think it is a good point that this disconnect isn't anything new. it has really been that the fed is active in this market. the fed is there to provide a backstop. the question is, if that tap is turning off and the pace of normalization is accelerating. ? tom: gold, $1846 an ounce. coming up, matthew lewis eddie -- coming up, matthew luzetti. this is bloomberg. â™

lisa: the tirade is coming. ok. tom: maybe david will take us to f5zmvy■;ñ tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i have not lived in maryhill. equities down 0.1%. can you see me in that sports bar saturday night, wearing my college hoodie from years ago? what is that about? i will never understand it. tom: i once lived across from where katherine hepburn lived. jonathan: grown adults wearing what they used to wear a students. anyway, if you want to explain, you know where i am on your terminal. they already are. [laughter] alisa levine of bny mellon coming up on this equity market. all-time highs this fed decision day. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a blow to president biden and democrats' hopes of keeping the congress in next year's elections. in virginia, republican glenn youngkin defeated terry mcauliffe in the closely watched governor's race. a year ago, joe biden won virginia by 10 percentage points. the central bank is likely to announce it will start

lisa: i'm looking at yields. tom: my good friend jon voight, he talks about you go down the highways away from the three zip codes you me and lisa now and it is plant after plant after plant of the new economy. there are companies changing the labor unit dynamics of this nation. jonathan: i am looking forward to hearing more about it ahead. the one time i need a prompt and they never roll forward. still haven't rolled forward. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving. the climate unless we get to net zero. these are hard numbers. there are going up or down. let's look at what happened at tcfd c

lisa: nuances do not work in the u.s. political sphere, that is one thing we have learned over and over again. that is why this administration has harped on the oil price and releasing some of the reserves that the u.s. has. are we expecting an imminent announcement before thanksgiving with respect to the release of some of the spr after china has moved to do the same. jack: the timing on a u.s. move on that is a little tough to pin down. i am not sure we can say imminent right now. the latest developments on that is that there was a little bit of a pushback from house majority leader steny hoyer saying that he does not quite like the idea of a strategic petroleum reserve release, so there is not entire unanimity among democrats on the idea for this but it is something that came up in the conversation between president biden and xi, and it is something that the president has talked about. i am not sure we can say imminent just yet but it is certainly on the radar. lisa: meanwhile, aren't congress members on vacation again

lisa: thank you so much. how much of what we are seeing is true risk off, and is a reassessment of the global growth picture, and how much is liquidity with everyone still in their thanksgiving comas? david riley joining us, bluebay asset management chief investment strategist. what do you make of today's move? david: i think the movedavid: is reflecting that the market viewed the pandemic essentially in the rearview mirror, and i think what this unwelcome news has done is challenged some assumption that we would go from a pandemic to endemic where we kind of learn to live with covid . the macro and market impact is pretty limited, diminishing over time. instead, we get this news that maybe it is a much more infectious variant, may, heaven forbid, it is less effectively dealt with in terms of vaccines, and that clearly increases the risk of a much bigger impact on global growth, but the reality is that we actually don't know. i think the market, because of liquidity coming into year end, it is reacting as if

lisa: there is a muted reaction in fx market. how efficient our foreign exchange markets pricing in differentials and central-bank policies given the growth in particular? kit: fx is never supposed to be just a bland reaction to interest rate differentials so you have to take a more, if you like, holistic view. if we raise rates a lot because our growth inflation trade-off has deteriorated after brexit so that we have bigger supply-chain impairment than other countries, we will end up with higher rates but an economy that weakens more. i don't know that that makes me like a currency as much as the u.s. dollar where you will get higher rates to tame a booming economy. one of those seems better for the currency than the other. i think if nothing else, it is a lesson that fx isn't only about rate differentials. lisa: how much are people pricing in a scenario in which the fed is forced to hike rates in an economy that is not booming? this is what the bank of england faces, that higher prices require some sort of response, the employe

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. in 30 minutes we will see the state of the american library economy. why is this jobs -- american economy. why is this jobs report different? jonathan: how can we get visibility into next year if we cannot figure out what happened 30 days ago? >> somebody came up to me on the street in new york yesterday and decided -- said, " you are way too bullish." >> what if we get a game changer that challenges the assumptions in the market? what a few get a return to normal quicker than expected? how much do you get a sudden shift in view is on monetary policy? that's bullish. tom: this is so important. we have dances are key coming up and he does not agree with morgan stanley. jonathan: lisa is standing increasingly bullish on this economy. lisa: bullish on the economy is not necessarily bullish on markets. if we get a shift to full employment, all of a sudden you get a different dynamic for markets than you do for the real economy. jonathan: is this a jobs report -- tom: is this a jobs are pa

lisa: i did not hear anything. today is a massive date and i wonder what the threshold is for jay powell to come in and say it is running hotter than we expected. jonathan: the chairman reportedly visited the white house yesterday. a report over at ask eos they have been encouraged -- at axios that senators have been encouraged to meet with the fed chair before thanksgiving. lisa: has four months left before the end of the four year term of jay powell. the past 4, 8, and 12 years, fed chairs were already nominated. we have a limited amount of time and this matters more than ever in terms of the trajectory for the federal reserve. jonathan: it looks like that decision could be close and maybe we will find out who is leading the central bank. that is important. if you have a reaction function, change of leadership inflection points in inflection points in monetary policy, i think it is complex to do. tom: part of it is a calendar. there is something ought about the december 15 meeting and the decision tree of the fed

lisa: i believe $26 billion. jonathan: i know you have the mall -- to have them all stored upstairs, ready to talk about. your guide to the now with luke kawa, of ubs asset management, and of course, formerly of bloomberg news. tom: senior moment. i don't remember. luke: great to be here. jonathan: before the dog ways and -- dog weighs in. the daylight between chairman powell and governor brainerd, how big is it? luke: from a market perspective, i don't think it is that big. don't think the possibility of having lael brainard versus a jerome powell is going to be that material. from an interest rate setting perspective, over the course of an economic cycle, i think both seem fairly committed to trying to discover the depths of what for employment could possibly be, but at the same time, both are going to be in a fed that is institutionally geared to minimize upside spirals and inflation risk. to a certain extent, you've got to think that both are going to use realized inflation data to tell you about what a maxim

lisa: honestly, how do you parse the two-out? because the political response is what you do with data, how you interpret it. it is a very tricky thing. how do you move forward and try to combat this? we don't know how quickly some of these inflationary pressures will roll off. i am just being honest, when i talk to economists, their political view is related to their view on akamai can put. jonathan: i hear a rumor that -- view on economic input. jonathan: i hear a rumor that annmarie is in town and she will be joining us on the situation. she is in new york city. tom: oh, the gucci sale. jonathan: we will find out in 10 minutes' time. kristin bitterly joins us now, head of capital markets at citi. are you flexible for next year? kristen: i think we have to be flexible and we have to really define what transitory means, or maybe just up using it entirely because i think what we are going to see is yes, we saw a pretty spicy cpi print. our view is actually very nuanced. we should anticipate seeing these elevated levels of inflatio

lisa referred to a quote from mr. solomon at goldman sachs at the new economy forum, where he said, "when i think about my 40 year career, there have been periods where greed has far outpaced fear. we are in one of those. my experience is that these periods do not last long." what do you see? michael: i think it is possible we are going to end up with this thing working out ok, and i would say that with rivian, you can also look at general motors as a stock by contrast, you put them side-by-side, and say if you were going to invest some money today, where would you put it? i think there are possibilities out there where you can survive the craziness, andy always have to head -- and we always have to hedge ourselves that they won't hold the punch bowl or that something stupid will happen. having said that, as tom said, a triple levered all-cash portfolio so you end up with a situation where, if the worst happens, we will survive. the investments arrival book from 40 years ago, you could read that. jonathan: it is a pri

lisa: what is a normal policy rate right now? michael: first you would have to say what is the neutral real interest rate. i would think it was somewhere between 0% and 5%. that would put nominal interest rates at something like 2%. until something breaks in the economy, the fed would seek to get back to that, in measured steps, unless there is a real problem. that is the goal in terms of normalization of policies, short-term rates back to something in that range. kailey: you also have a number of policymakers saying we need to taper more quickly than initially thought. you expect an accelerated taper and does that have any bearing on liftoff? michael: cannot rule out given the pace of improvement in the labor market recently. i think is interesting that you have a remark from richard clarida to last week. he knows he is out the door and perhaps he feels he can speak freely. perhaps he can speak on behalf of the institution. the fact that he was out there raising that idea suggested is something we cannot rule out. i do not expec

tom: i try to do soccer talk with lisa. lisa: it is still burning on the floor. tom: what if you take us out as we get ready for a special hour of bloomberg surveillance? jonathan: futures of 15 on the s&p. tom: i want the beard. lisa: i think he missed us. jonathan: yields up three basis points. 10 1.5754. do not let the beard be a distraction. from new york city, very good morning. special coverage coming right up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we think the financial markets will discover what normal looks like from a growth and inflation standpoint. >> fundamentals cannot be better it inflation is not disrupting that. >> a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> inflation will be a 2022 story. >> the uncertainty band is wide. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. breaking news. the president to nominate chairman powell to a second term , to nominate governor brainard as fed vice chair. that news in the last few seconds. the president of the united states to

lisa: do you think an electric one? you asked a great question, the idea of the supply chain disruption. and the response being we expect them to abate. i wonder how long it is going to take because we hear different things from auto manufacturers, something it looks like it is going to persist into next year. jonathan: demand has been great. stock has been tremendous. quite a run. lisa: there were no cars, may be and the entire lot. jonathan: 0.04% of the s&p 500. eight today winning streak. fantastic line up this morning, discussing the leadership of the federal reserve. who is nine says the fed chair? ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.

lisa: and they have it. ultimately, a lot of companies have said we lost profitability because we did not have as much workers -- did not have enough workers. so companies realizing that if they pay up, they will be in business. jonathan: how do you think that is going to work out next year when we have to renegotiate? i am not looking forward to it, i will tell you. tom: off the record, i am completely amateur. i am working with the number 6%. jonathan: and that is low, tom. let's be clear about this. tom: it should be 8%, and maybe they will go to 6% just to spread it out over two or three years to get to that big lift. jonathan: but totally off the record, i've heard 10%, 20% plus in new york city, maybe more. lisa: especially in pieces with doormen. if they have more staff, it is for those who want to come in. jonathan: tom is in a walk up in murray hill. tom: but the dropping of the packages for vet bill, the chewy boxes are tough. jonathan: i can see you in your college hoodie in murray hill. lisa: oh

lisa: how much is the u.s. story going to shift to become a global issue next year, the idea that a lot of people are seeing that the upside gains really lie in europe or even japan from here? david: we do see value in markets outside the united states. i tend to think about it in terms of owning the emerging markets and renting places like europe. europe very cyclical, same thing with japan. the exposure you are getting from an industry perspective is going to be quite positive in a world coming back online, so it does -- a preference for the united states and emerging markets. at some point, growth does get back to the long-term trend. eventually we get back to where we were in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and that is a world that favors things like technology, things like health care, as opposed to those more cyclical sectors. jonathan: what are the return assumptions right now, considering the gains we've had in this equity market? david: it is interesting you ask that question because effectively

lisa: let's talk about avis. tom: there'll be a new avis today. lisa: bed, bath & beyond. tom: all of this wisdom from miss abramowitz comes with her two sons with their new back book -- there new macbook pros trading on the couch. more of lisa abramowicz this afternoon. this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving. jonathan: it is fed decision day. your equity market all-time highs. on the s&p we pull back .1%. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ tom: from -- jonathan: we begin with the big issue. that decision time. >> that decision -- we are ta

i am lisa abramowicz. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: an economic peptalk ahead of the holidays. >> record job growth. the strongest recovery in the world. our economy has created a record 5.6 million jobs since i became president, but we still face challenges. challenges in our supply chain which is part concerns about shortages and higher prices. america has a lot to be proud of.

lisa: not only russia, but saudi arabia. that they are being asked to pump more oil at the same time world leaders are trying to figure out how to rid the world of oil. jonathan: your equity market up 10 on the s&p 500, advancing 0.2%. this equity market has a lift to close out the week after a week of losses. it is very much still on the cards. yields higher by a couple of basis points. 1.5664%. in just a moment, i will discuss euro-dollar which is flat on the day, but negative on the week. biggest weekly loss in five or six months. this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving. ♪ jonathan: live from new york this morning,

lisa: you are not alone in looking at. of pages on whether -- looking at prediction pages of whether fed chair powell will be the chair next year. i wonder what it would actually due to the potential stance of the federal reserve when governments want a central bank that is dovish. frances: most of the time we would say do not pay attention who is running the fed. focus on the data. except right now, the outlook for the fed is very binary. the fed is looking from the inflation site, which i don't think they would be successful at taming. in which case we are talking about more curve flatters in a shortened cycle. the fed is saying labor force partition rate -- participation rate is still really suppressed. our job market is still dysfunctional. we have to allow the overheat and re-convince the market of average inflation targeting. will brainard seems more in that latter camp. when we are in that binary outcome, then who is running the fed will matter more than it has. tom: is this traditional economics? do they have a fou

lisa: thank you so much. we will get a read on policy when it comes to how much this does push forward the democratic agenda. we will also be sticking with amrita sen, founder and director of research at energy aspects come on some of the travel curves that could trickle into the crude market. right now we are seeing crude down about 6% on nymex. the idea here, people looking at less travel, less activity. we are seeing oil now down 5.7%. we are seeing a similar move in brent. really, what is catching my eye is the bond market, the retracement of rate hikes. i do wonder, the binary nature of how trades are happening. right now in china, for example, you are seeing a huge slowdown. how much does this trickle into all of the in points, defending on the zeitgeist of the morning? anna: we will certainly and i on how china on. if we do see a new variant, how does that rub up against our western vaccines and the ground in china? also watching the swiss franc. the haven safety of that currency putting it at a six ye

lisa: what about for kids? dr. beyrer: everyone agrees first of all that the vaccine really does work safe it is highly effective in kids. vaccine rollout in kids is going really quite well. there is high demand out there. it is probably too early to mandate. pediatric vaccines are still being used under emergency use authorization. it is likely that there won't be mandates. alllisa: if you have -- lisa: if you have gotten immunized, does that mean you cannot get very sick? how protected are you after six or nine months without a booster? dr. beyrer: it is important to remember that these vaccines were never designed to totally prevent infection. what they work so well against, serious disease, hospitalization and death. they dramatically reduce the odds of that. there still are people postimmunization who got sick with covid, breakthrough infections. some of that is underlying. it was just fully immunized. he was on cancer therapy and was immunocompromised. what we really have to look at between people who are not

lisa: he actually did say something, though. tom: oh please, lisa. lisa: he did. when he said they are periods of time where greed has far outpaced fear. we are in one of those periods. my experience says those are not long-lived. the question is what is going to stop it. that is actually saying something. jonathan: i said it was an otherwise good conversation. just looking at fairly specific parts of it where he said something without saying much at all. tom: what i would say right here would get me in real trouble. jonathan: you stay out of trouble. tom: david wilson is looking at me saying, stay out of trouble. jonathan: equity futures unchanged on the s&p. yields unchanged on the 10 year bond, 1.6319%. tom: thank you. greatly appreciate that. right now, we will move over. david wilson with his really wonderful, foundational book on all of this mumbo-jumbo, looks to total enterprise value. help me here. market cap plus debt, take away the cash. what are we looking at? dave: we are looking at it because the folks at prescott capitol looked at it in terms of the

lisa, it is a beautiful new york city morning. lisa: a good one for shaving. ♪ ritika: the latest coronavirus wave in the new yet -- in the u.s. is taking its toll on some states intensive care units. several are dealing with outbreaks that are as bad as ever with patients can -- with confirmed or expected covid are taking up icu beds. michigan has the highest rate per capita in the u.s.. resident biden dodged the risk of a summit -- senate confirmation fight the to reappoint jerome powell for another term of the chair of central banks. some progressive senators are opposing it. the president selected lowell brainard to be vice chair. the china rate has dropped. there were 8.5 births towards 1000 -- per 1000 people in china. this data is going back to 1978. as of june, the conferencing company reported a broader than expected number of customers for a second straight quarter raising concerns about customers after stores are opening back up. there are no immediate plans to go public from the president of strike. they say that the

lisa: i'm just saying it is broader. i mean, this is the idea, that it is harder to fix something that is multifaceted and coming from many parts of the economy with a one issue button. tom: who says they can fix it? i don't see that in the history books. lisa: that is the issue, it is how quickly can it abat do toe supply-demand pressures concentrated versus a change in the economy? jonathan: this is the most contentious debate in global economics right now, you're going to have it through the morning. down about a quarter of 1%, no drama here. bond market yields are higher for five basis points. tom, you keep bringing up the real yield. the real yield is negative further out the curve. tom: there is a big debate on this and i know you are going to go into that friday afternoon if we go into record level as well. this is the nominal yield minus whatever you believe inflation is, and that is the residual or inflation-adjusted yield. jonathan: at least you mentioned crude. 83.67. lisa: we didn't get that announcement yest

lisa, don't you think this is constructive that we have this? lisa: terrific. jonathan: can you sense the humility every time we do this? when i go to speak and it offends you so much you jump in all the time, just let that sink in. are we counting up or counting down? switch up the board and get to crude, or the pound, or whatever it is. it is sterling. surprise, surprise. [laughter] is it over? tom: stretch, jon. stretch. [laughter] jonathan: let's get you some movers with romaine. romaine: good morning, guys. let's start off with some of the big movers of the day. qualcomm moving higher, the biggest upside surprise we have seen so far out of their earnings season, at least among some of these larger cap companies. the expectations were pretty low because of supply chain disruptions. qualcomm says it really managed that pretty deftly primarily by farming out a lot of its production among multiple manufacturers. also said it has less of a reliance on the apple iphone and a little more diversification with regard to android products and non-smartphone products

lisa: yes. temperatures this morning mainly in the 40's, a couple of outlying areas in the upper 30's, and the closer you are to the bay, it has been kind of mild, all in the 50's, due to high pressure. a stagnant weather battered overhead, as -- pattern overhead, deflecting the system to the north. kind of on track for what we call the southern oscillation, as predicted. we are in that lending you pattern, and that is allowing for less rainfall -- la niÑa pattern, and that has been the case for the last decade, hasn't it? elsewhere across the bay, 47 in oakland as well as hayward. 41 to the north, santa fe oryza -- san araiza -- 41 to the north, santa rosa. clear and cool this morning, looking at sunny and warmer weather for today. temperatures come up through the 60's. the drive pattern holds into early december. look at saturday, as we get through the afternoon, maybe a few high clouds, otherwise patchy fog in some valley locations. 70's. let's take you through your sunday, where we have a c

lisa: are you trolling anyone? jonathan: not at all. lisa: should we talk about the dow? tom: you can't spell schenectady. jonathan: you're right, i can't. [laughter] so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to golo.com to get yours. jonathan: it is cpi wednesday. do like that, tom? tom: i like it. jonathan: negative about 0.25% on the s&p 500. they have spelled my name right. do they usually make a mistake like that. tom: sometimes they do. jonathan: eight day winning streak on the s&p into yesterday. we break that going into cpi. ppi yesterday was firm. cpi overnight in china was really firm. ppi and china, 26 year high. has we seen the

lisa: please elaborate. you are saying that perhaps this could cause a serious yield curve steepening if the market is not price for it? is that the idea? >> you have heard a lot of jawboning from australia, the u.k., the last couple days. if central bankers don't say, wait a minute, we get in, there are challenges with demographics, there are challenges with productivity. we are really not going to raise interest rates very quickly. the total value of those rates will be fairly shallow. if there is language besides that, markets are not priced in it. the fed is going to actually move a bit more quickly. we don't think that is being totally factored in right now. lisa: these think that credit is the most vulnerable, or equities will see a similar type of selloff portion it to what we might see in credit? >> equities are probably feeling at the most. then, credit. i also think you have to be fairly specific on sectors. we are bullish, but we are concerned about what estimated real look like. if you look at co