jonathan: that is done. lisa: the issue is how much will they push back against rate hikes and why would they even do that? i do not understand why they would push back the special employment cost index where it was on friday. jonathan: that is the issue. i know it sounds childish, but if you do not push back sufficiently -- you have to be so careful about what you say because the market participants start to think limited pushback, maybe they are leading that way, let's add some more. forgive me to all of the rates people out there, the market does behave a little bit like a toddler pushing its boundaries waiting for somebody to say enough. lisa: it definitely seems to be the way he reacted in 2013. some people have come out with notes saying the toddler is now a teenager and dealing with the guidance a little bit more. we can get into the parenting analogies. jonathan: these are highly educated toddlers. let me throw that out there. lisa: we all are. jonathan: your equity market up .4% on the s&p, advancin

jonathan: ok. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> did yield curve has been falling and nobody else has been listening. i think this is a critical message in and of itself. when you bring rate hikes forward because we are responding to supply shocks that today has inflation higher, it does not mean that inflation will necessarily be higher and continue to grow. jonathan: fantastic to hear from jim caron of morgan stanley investment management. some fantastic voices on a fed decision this afternoon. from new york, with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are in down zero -- we are down 0.06%. no drama into this wednesday. record highs. yields in a couple of basis points on tends to 1.52 96%. on twos, we have breached 50 basis points, and then we come back down again. yields in yesterday at the front end just setting us up for that fed decision a little bit later. tom: we haven't said enough about how the gloom crew has been humbled. they have gone silent. but seriously, as you

jonathan: matt miller, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your equity market down 14 on the s&p, negative one third of 1%. treasures are rallying, yields lower by one basis point. the view from ubs next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is difficult to see how, at current levels, multiples expand further. >> i think some of the high valuations may be worth it in some cases. >> i think we come close to double digits. >> corporation fundamentals couldn't be better. >> you are looking at a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a little bit of risk aversion to end the week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa

jonathan: fair. seth covered their from morgan stent -- seth carpenter from morgan stanley on this market. tom: stephen stanley is watching this saying, do we have a blackout period? jonathan: it doesn't sound like he's heard anything. he said, if you guys have something, tell us. i think it is a juicing, the ideas of the fed that they could push back against the naysayers, only if inflation comes down in the second quarter. i don't know that they have the political power to do that. basically, they are going to have to respond. jonathan: i'm just fascinated by the spread of the calls right now. back end of 2023 for td. it is hard to keep up, isn't it? tom: i'm loving it. there's no consensus. there's just opinion. jonathan: from new york city -- tk, drop it. i was terrible at french. tom: i was, too. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in the u.s., 25 states are seeing a rise in hospital admissions for coronavirus. nationwide, the seven day ave

jonathan: that was just beautiful. tom: i was blown away. jonathan: andrew price was thrilled. steve major, too. west ham fans. yields in three basis points. 1.458 4%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm rick and cooped up. general electric will split and hit three companies focused on health care, power, and aviation. it is the most sweeping and significant changes for ge since larry culp became ceo back in 2018. the health care division will be the first to be spun off in early 2023. president biden has interviewed fed governor lael brainard for the top job at the central bank last week. it is a sign that federal jerome powell has a serious rival to his current term that ends in february. spacex has returned more astronauts from the international space station. its mission splashed down off the coast of florida late monday, completing in hundred 99 days in space. the space agency was forced to alter its launch and lending schedule due to disruptive whether over the past two weeks. in nicaragua, president dani

jonathan: are we done? tom: ferro is so done. jonathan: thank you, sir . a a difference between the federal reserve and that ecb yesterday was start. lagarde saying 2022, forget about it. the chairman did not do that. there was real humility from the federal reserve to say, next year, who knows this is how we will respond to things if they change. that was not what we heard from the ecb. tom: i am going to go to michael darden. he said, this is proto-keynesian rubbish. this is the chairman straddling the true angst over rising inflation, stagflation and a rational thought about where we go. a nominal gdp, where we go on the inflation trend and job permission. jonathan: it sounds shake, but dependent seems to be the take away the federal reserve. there is a huge balance of risk. upside for inflation. higher for longer. lisa: it is one thing to be data-dependent in an environment moving at a normal pace. it is another to be data-dependent at an economy that is changing at a breakneck pace. to then understand the dynamics here. the question i have is will the

jonathan: we have no idea. watch this space, hopefully some point later this week, we may find something else. equity futures advancing 0.2%. good morning to you all. we advance on the s&p 500. bond market yields, in just about one basis point. the main event u.s. retail sales on the data front. tom keene, euro-dollar 1.1449. senator schumer over the weekend calling for an spr release once again. tom: i am going to stay away from the spr. there has been a lot of study on that, and i am not sure about that exit the it makes a media splash. what i really look at is retail sales i believe that is tomorrow. i do not think that is a small issue. jonathan: that is the point of the weekend. lisa: how much dynamism is there, especially as you see wages lagging behind some of the price increases we have seen. today, not a lot of economic data. the main point is 8:30 a.m., u.s. empire manufacturing, the first read on this month's manufacturing at its -- amidst some labor market shortages. that will be the focus. the expe

jonathan: jonathan ferro with matt miller. tom keene is back next week. on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: house democrats are expected to pass president biden's $1.6 trillion economic agenda. they had hoped for a vote late yesterday but republican leader kevin mccarthy put that off with a lengthy speech from the or that lasted into the early hours of this morning. meanwhile the congressional budget office released its estimate that the biden bill does not contain enough tax increases to pay for itself. now austria will impose a nationwide lockdown next week in germany may take a similar move. it is all part of europe's effort to cope with the deadly surge of rotavirus. austria will also require all residents to get vaccinations. that is one of the most rigid vaccination requirements in the region. time is running out for congress to raise the u.s. debt ceiling. chuck schumer and mitch mcconnell discussed the need to resolve the issue in a meeting yesterday. janet yellen warned congress it would risk a government default if it fails to rais

lisa: [laughter] jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. coming up shortly from the bloomberg new economy forum, we will catch up with the prime minister of singapore. from new york city on radio and tv for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ and there you have it. woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. big deal. we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet. but mine has 5g included. relaaax people. my wireless is crushing it! that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and get $200 back when you bring your own phone. or get a samsung galaxy a42 on us. call, click or visit a store today. this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so mi

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." corporate accounting for 70%, volumes falling to 20 billion euros in the strongest week since august. sales pricing 16 billion in two days with j.p. morgan and american express leading the charge. high-yield, rising over 5 billion with pharmaceuticals highlighting the action. michael collins weighed in on the market action and the reaction. this was the quote, although markets seem to have drawn a conclusion, perhaps to some degrees stemming from the fed chair -- and i caught up with him in this is what he had to say. >> the jobs numbers and the chairman's comments are not the half of it. i think the news from pfizer on the covid side are a game changer. this is the real positive for the supply side of the economy and demand side. jonathan: with us now is matt diczok, cap jones -- kathy jones, and george bory. the jobs report that looks good but not enough to bring the fed it. -- fed in p how good is that? george: look at the equity market -- bring the fed in. how good is that? george

[laughter] jonathan: perfect. equity futures this morning up 11 points on the s&p 500, advancing about 0.2%. these views for next year are fascinating. they are wide between morgan stanley and the likes of rbc and others. yields in about a basis point. crude want to watch, down 1.4%. lisa: this seems to be a gaining consensus among democrats that perhaps there should be some action. the one area that maybe there could be some direct intervention to bring down prices as the approval rating of the president declines on inflation concerns. today at 8:30 a.m., u.s. november manufacturing data is the first read on this month's manufacturing. a lot of people want to get a sense of how much we have to be concerned about supply chain disruptions and labor shortages accelerating rather than decelerating. today in about 45 minutes, we get xus fed president bill dudley joining us. then the former president of the richmond fed will be talking about inflation. we will be talking about the next fed chair. do want to point to th

jonathan: thank you. i wanted to get to ge quickly, just a look at what is happening with the stock, up 10% in the premarket, up by 12% as i see it. planning to form three global public companies focused on aviation, health care, and energy. that company splitting into three. lisa: do you remember the time of companies acquiring one another? it seems in the industrial space we have seen the opposite, the breakup of some of these conglomerates. it is rewarding of that breakup in the equity markets. i wonder what that means in terms of having focus on a specific business. tom: you have aviation and corporate companies -- the founding company will be ge aviation. power is the big headache. then health care is interesting. he founded some parts of the family have shares -- it is amazing that the operating income is about twice the size of ge health care. you have to ask the question, is he setting up ge healthcare for a merger? jonathan: i thought you might tell us he owned a stock just then. tom: i am all-ca

jonathan: that makes -- at 1:00 p.m. jonathan: that makes sense. matt miller is done napping and he is back with us. matt: so tesla -- first of all, i agree with tom on treasury auctions. what a snooze. but i cover them every day, live at 1:00 p.m. on bloomberg television jonathan: there is the promo. [laughter] matt: this isn't a bad drop, almost 6%. but we are talking about a $1 trillion company here. if the founder is going to sell 10% of his stake, he softened the blow by tweeting about it over the weekend. everybody was following this. it seems like the people have helped him do this. they voted that he can sell his stake, and no you don't have to see such a huge drop in the shares. jonathan: a listener just wrote in, "did you put miller in the timeout chair for some of the crazy stuff he is saying this morning?" [laughter] matt: it could work. jonathan: is that the tees for later this morning? matt: i know the people who watch this show care deeply about monetary policy, and i didn't mean to offend. lisa: do you think that is what it was? jon

jonathan: kaylee, we still do not know. kailey: i wonder if that is why you are not seeing a more convincing bounced in equities. the s&p is up 0.8%, but that does not even cover half the loss on friday. the market still seems iffy. jonathan: we have got a few more weeks of this. three weeks until the federal reserve decision. the fed stuck between a rock and a hard place. tom: the u.s. economy is humming. we may see that in the jobs on friday. jon, you'd like the ism stuff. we know air -- our greek letters. this is omicron. bloomberg has been great about all of the adaptability, the crisis, the weekend we have been through. jonathan: your equity market positive. let us whip through the price action. on monday, we bounce back from a big loss on friday, up 40 points for the s&p. kailey leinz, this is unconvincing. yields up five basis points, tends back to 1.5277. kailey: 11 basis points higher than thursday. there is a long wait go to get back but there is not a long way to go from your couch to your computer. it is cyber m

jonathan: great to catch up. i have really enjoyed the outlooks out of morgan stanley over the past couple of weeks. good to see you. the march towards payrolls friday, let's be clear, i've got no idea how sensitive this market will be to incoming economic data, given how much we don't know about this variant. do we respond more to a softer print then an explosive, really strong jobs print? i'm not sure. tom: by the time we get to friday, and frankly to tomorrow, will we see the first cases dr. fauci talks about of omicron? jonathan: and should we respond to that? most people believe it is already here. what matters is not if we have a couple of cases in america. we were going to have those headlines. a case found here, a case found there. what we need to know, is it more contagious, is it more severe, and does it escape vaccine protection? tom: this is the headline off "morning joe" this morning. there's many cross purposes in messaging within u.s. health. this is from the national institute of health, the leade

jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: 4600 on the s&p. are you desensitized yet? all-time highs after all-time highs. the federal reserve is going to look at rates. equity futures up, advancing 0.4%. a lift on the russell. a pitch for the bond market. forget tends and look at the front end of the yield curve. september 22, that one was just north of 20 basis points. right now, 50, more than double. the fed meets wednesday, the bank of england on thursday. we can discuss that more. but australia, 0-60 in just over a month, a massive move. we will hear from the rba overnight. let us finish on the prude story. 84, a bounce back. will the president get what he wants? he is leaning on opec plus to do more. there is some real doubt in this market. look at the crude, up 0.6%. lisa: we have heard from opec members pushing against the president's assertion that it is a tight market. one of the big questions is, why is opec-plus so reluctant to pump more oil, given the demand in the market, given the fact they could get an easy win diplomatically?

lisa abramowicz, matt miller, jonathan ferro. here is the price action off what is happening the back of europe. restrictions and austria. more to come, perhaps, in germany and the rest of the continent. small caps have struggled, down more than 1%. a big move in euro dollar. we are back to about 0.9% lower. the bid on the german bond market following through in the treasury market. and crude back with a 76 handle. lisa: this is significant. we thought we were on the precipice of a huge change. on the airline stocks, we thought it would free up, people would begin to travel again. that is getting canceled, highly short-term. jonathan:jonathan: that is where the focus is on the united states, right now, speaker pelosi on the house floor. greg valliere joins us now. let's start right here. what we can achieve today in the house and how much longer it would take to achieve the same thing in the senate. greg: we will get it, probably today, in the house. but i will issue a fake out alert. even if the house passes it today, the senate

jonathan: let's start with the u.k. i want to understand why we have such an outside spillover from the front end of the u.k. curve into the bond market everywhere else. the bank of england moves treasuries more than the fed chair himself. why was that? >> to understand, you have to look at the set up into the bank of england. i think it started with the bank of england with barely talking about potentially hiking, clearly messaging that the exit is coming. u.s. treasuries have been driven a lot. i think the market has been sort of toying with -- torn between the outlook and function. we do not hear anything from fed chair powell to push back on the idea that the expectation is much higher that they would have to respond. i think the fed held its ground but the fact that it did not hike despite market pricing. i think the market had to react to the fact that may central banks are not getting bullied by the market or inflation risk. that seems to be persisting much longer. tom: how much did president draghi credit for he

tom: you jonathan: jonathan: are so domestic. from a beautiful new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden and president xi spoke for the need for cooperation in their first video summit. it lasted longer than expected, more than three hours but they announced no major breakthroughs. they discussed a wide range of issues including trade, taiwan, and human rights. a key summit democrat has been told to expect an imminent decision on the chair for the federal reserve. sherrod brown said that he views the decision as already been made. powell's term ends in february. it is another hurdle for nord stream 2, germany has halted the process needing another step before the pipeline operates. this comes as they decided to a german subsidiary. they say it is bringing as prices up as much as 12%. the labor market strength and the benefit program came to an end. companies added 160,000 people to their payrolls last month. they had job openings to a record high and that might indicate that banks will raise interest rates. global

jonathan: remember v-shaped? remember january v-shaped, that we would all get through this, that china would have a v-shaped recovery and it wouldn't really touch the rest of the world? here we are still talking about it. let's whip through the price action. just a little bit softer this morning. 1.4813% on tens. euro-dollar, $1.1549. lisa: perhaps the conversation isn't so much transitory versus persistent, but the nature of the inflationary push. how much are we getting inflation and consumer goods offset by inflation in wages? can get some sort of conductivity between these two? we get that conductivity today with the data dump, it: 30 a.m. on this cpi wednesday, as we have branded it. u.s. cpi data for the month of october, the expectation is for it to be 5.9% year-over-year, the fastest pace of consumer price increases going back to 1990. dovetail that into the labor market. at the same time, we are getting u.s. initial jobless claims forward from tomorrow. the expedition is for a new post-pandemic low in th

jonathan: thanks for joining us, i am jonathan caphart. look at what interviews we have next week, go to washingtonpost .com. i will see you next week. >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government. we are funded by these television companies and more, including cox. >> cox is committed to providing affordable internet through our program, bridging the digital divide. we are engaged to connect. >> cox supports c-span as a public service along with these other television providers, giving a front-row seat to democracy. on washington journal, rising prices and the biden

jonathan: javier blas, thank you. that break down there at the end, the breakdown of the price, fuel duties about 57, 58 pence, and the prices on top. tom: we've got other states, i don't have it in front of me, but select the u.s. states are on the edge of that. to bring you over to the crisis, and then you have an entire nation like indonesia with the size of population, where the government unilaterally comes in and fixes the price of hydrocarbon. jonathan: and who wants to be seen at glasgow right now cutting fuel duty, cutting taxes on fuel? tom: when you've got 400 gulfstreams landing, call it worse than davos, it is tangible. jonathan: dp a little reality -- the political reality is pretty bright, isn't it? lisa: not wanting the political ramifications of the price of petrol as it is. jonathan: my bloomberg terminal writing up with people writing in that taxes are one dollar in new jersey. a lot of people frustrated by that situation. i think they feel like they pay enough taxes already in new jersey, maybe. be

jonathan: we will see. we will catch up with the ceo of the largest ipo of the year so far a little bit later at 10: 10 eastern time. ed ludlow sitting down with the ceo of rivian. we will speak to the bnp paribas ceo in a moment. looking forward to speaking to jean-yves fillion. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. we will get the latest u.s. inflation figures a few minutes from now, expected to show that consumer prices have risen 5.9% in the last year. that would be the fastest pace since 1990. supply chain bottlenecks lead to high gas prices across the region. president biden and china's xi jinping will hold a virtual summit next week. no specific date has been set. ties between th world's two largest economies have increased in the last few months. washington is concerned about beijing's expanding nuclear arsenal. electric vehicle make a rivian has raised about $11.9 billion in the year's biggest ipo. rivian is backed by companies such as ford and amazon. tesla sha

jonathan: up 0.6%. i think the bond market being closed is helping out there after the moves we saw yesterday. tom: we also saw the moves by one elon musk. david wilson looking, as he always does. it is not just tesla, but how about a compare and contrast of amazon and tesla. why those two stocks? dave: you are talking about two companies that make up almost half of the s&p 500 consumer discretionary index by weight. that index is such a grab bag with retailers, bankers, homebuilders, casinos, a bunch of other industries. what is interesting is how much volatility there has been in the relationship between these two companies. i saw this twitter post from a gentleman and his firm. the chart is really compelling. two and a half years ago, you had amazon at a record relative to tesla. then it plunged 94% in terms of the ratio between the two stocks. tom: because tesla did so well. dave: absolutely. tesla down on elon musk shares and amazon up a bit, but it is clear that is just a blip in terms of the rela

jonathan: silence. lisa: is that silence? jonathan: no. [laughter] not sure where you are going with that, tom. they are not silent at all. futures unchanged on the s&p. good morning. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. house speaker nancy pelosi plans to push forward with a vote this week on president biden's economic agenda legislation. she's getting pushback from moderates who want a detailed analysis of the full cost and economic impact. the echoes complaints from democratic senator joe manchin. he says congress needs more time to assess the bill. the election for governor in virginia will offer the clearest picture of how much moment and republicans will have an the 2022 vote for congress. gop candidate glenn youngkin is backed by donald trump and polls show a dead heat. shares of tesla are falling. elon musk says the company has not signed a contract with hertz yet for that record number of rental cars. that since shares of tesla rocketing to a record high, but musk we

jonathan: we can build on this. dan: i think on the bullish side of things if you took out the bubble related parts of the market we would be incredibly bullish right now. the runway for growth globally is huge. you were alluding to this but if we were completely normal and we went to today's world, that would be a recession. from today's world, the recovery potential of coming out of a recession. that is what is bullish. the trade discount -- jonathan: it is never too early to sell a bubble. these are the two types of responses we have gotten and, " you just don't get it, b oomer." lisa: what triggers a bubble? how do we determine what could actually cause the b word? dan: why do we think it is a bubble and what will cause it to pop? it is not just that the market is expensive. the difference between a speculative market and a bubble is it pervades society. we have five criteria for a bubble and all of them have been met with flying colors. it pervades society. why is that bubble going to pop? i see two key risks t

jonathan: jonathan: we know access to labor has been a key issue. does this make it worse in the near term or better in the long term? tom: randall kroszner was brilliant at what i would go to in the economics of the jobs report, this is a hugely important jobs report. full disclosure, i have this belief, amazon and the amazon-li ke are changing the marginal unit labor economy in america. they are hiring thousands of people at a high wage and benefit. jonathan: and they are doing it with higher wages as you said. the president said wages were going up faster than inflation. let's look out for the labor market report later this morning to see if that is true. your equity market up 10 on the s&p, advancing .2%. in the bond market, 1.52. from new york city, beautiful morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: the house plans to vote today on president biden's $1.75 trillion economic package and a separate infrastructure bill. intense 11th hour negotiations, lingering differences were settled. nancy pelosi garnered support in -- promising she would make suppor

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. tom: we wait for the president speaking. we wait to see if this economic recovery continues. greg valliere saying it is humming, but this bounce this morning, it is a great bounce, but not a convincing bounce. we need to hear science news. jonathan: we will talk about whether you should fade friday or fade this morning. we will get to that point in just a moment. the view from jan hatzius, the range of medical and economic outcomes remains unusually wide. that is going to be the case for the next couple of weeks. tom: but how do companies adapt? jonathan: they have done all this year. let's be clear about that. tom: i wonder how the successful stay-at-home companies adapt to this, and the answer is they are going to wake up and say let's go to work. that is going to be the tone. jonathan: it seemed very clear maybe a week ago. the federal reserve the middle of december, the bank of england, the ecb, and i'll of a sudden, we are talking about something else

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. tom: propensity, very nice. jonathan: i did study economics, tom. i just let some of it out every now and then. [laughter] tom: coming up, jon ferro, elasticity. jonathan: that is introduction to economics. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. president joe biden and china's xi jinping have plenty to discuss during their third virtual summit. still, the expectations for a major breakthrough are low. the summit is set for tonight washington time. relations between the two countries are tense. there are disputes over taiwan's human rights and the origin of the coronavirus. in the u.k., police say an explosion in a taxi outside the hospital in liverpool is being treated as terrorism. the passenger in the taxi died and the driver was injured. police say the blast was called by an improvised the passenger was carrying her get four people are being held in the case. senate majority leader chuck schumer once president joe biden to tap the strategic petroleum

howard: hi, jonathan. very optimistic, because the message i was getting yesterday was existing vaccines would be fairly efficacious against the new variant. the data that we do have, which is that 70% of the country is vaccinated, 8% of those people over the age of 12, and we are administering one point 8 million doses per day. i was optimistic. obviously, the comments out of the merger and a ceo -- the moderna ceo in "the ft" are alarming, but it will take a couple weeks for them to have a good handle on just how good the existing vaccines are and how long it will take to develop one more focused on the omicron variant. i do not think there is enough data to support this being a game changing. tom: what this means is we have to stay invested as well. do we shift new investment, the marginal dollar we will place with this uncertainty, does that change? howard: i do not think so. of course, i started working on wall street in the 1970's. i've seen this economy and stock market weather all kinds of turbulen

jonathan: do you like that. tom: frances donald joins us and she has written an important essay on all this talk about policy mistakes. let's folded into the word transitory. a transitory policy mistake. when a central bank screws up, what do they do? frances: it depends on who they are, but traditionally they have pivoted back. we are going to see central bankers who may be get a little too excited in validating those front and moves and you see those longer and start to move down and this is saying to a lot of economists that in 2022 growth of inflation slows pretty heavily and central banks will want to pivot and will have to pivot towards more dovish language. the challenge is we have to traverse some challenging curve flatters, some challenging economic environments. tom: the 20 year yield is higher than the 30 year yield. it is an inverted yield in the 20-30 spread. i have never mentioned that on air before. lisa mentions that daily. that is another world. francis, the fed can control how far out the curve

jonathan: look at the treasury announcement. goldman sachs came out a number of months ago and talked about a return to 1.5% to to percent. i have no -- 22% -- to 2%. lisa: i wonder how much it changes the equation if they allow inflation to run hotter and how that would change. jonathan: the expect some of that sometime soon? good morning. tom keene is with us tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the markets are pricing in inflation, which is going to be with us for some time. >> we are moving towards inflation is the risk for markets. >> we are in the process of normalization, but it is painfully slow. >> inflation risk seems to be persisting for much longer than anyone forecasted. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: getting your trading week started this morning. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, could morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market advancing about 0.1%. this feel that came out of last week continu

jonathan: what a week it has been. trying to get you to the weekend, this is "bloomberg surveillance." potentially the biggest weekly loss since early october. bond market yields are higher by more than 10 basis points. a big move on 5's and 2's. the cpi print has brought to life the outlooks for next year making people rethink how aggressive the fed might need to be. lisa:: this is not just an energy story. i think that jolted people. jonathan: inflation print, "broader and stickier." tom: i would go to j.p. morgan tonight, weekly prospects and rbc capital. the keyword is broader. i did not expect that, and yet here is. jonathan: standard chartered put it perfectly, it is as bad as it looks. i mentioned this yesterday, worth mentioning again. you still get 5.4% at an annualized pace and rising. this is the issue for me. we started the year, the transitory story made sense. we had temporary factors forcing inflation higher. they would fade and inflation would come back down. what has happened is the stories have gone b

jonathan: the equity selloff resumes. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene i am jonathan ferro. lisa back with us tomorrow. we are down 1% on the s&p. tom: in the last hour some surveillance dance, we have seen some nice improvement. the angst of the 10 year yield from 1.41. two solid basis points. all of that because of the sterling hour. jonathan: it is not just about omicron. a conversation we will have in just a few moments time. can central banks around the world maintain this dovish stance if we get some downside risk it starting to build for this economy? tom: what does the volatility main -- mean for the financial system? we have seen the 10 year yield, the vanilla benchmark yield, three or four standard variation moves in six days. the answer is volatility is really painful for people like mr. gallup, they need to manage that. kailey: on the bright side the 60-40 has been working over the past few days. equity down hard what you are seeing that traditional safety in treasuries.

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg real yield. over the next week, the united states and china holding a virtual summit between president biden and president xi on monday. u.s. retail sales on monday. jobless claims on thursday. another round of fed speak through the week. rounding out the week with fed vice chairman richard clarida. for this market, an important man. it doesn't get discussed enough, what happens to him? let's get to the rapidfire around. cpi next year, 2 handle, 3, 4 or higher? subadra: 4. colin: 3. bob:3. jonathan: one height, no hikes, one, or more? colin: no hikes. bob: two or more. subadra: at least one. jonathan: does chairman powell get a second term, yes or no? bob: i think so. subadra: yes. colin: yes. jonathan: thank you. from new york city, that does it for us. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. the white house says president biden and xi jinping hold a virtual summit on day. both sides have been looking to dial back tensions after a rough start to the u.s. ch

jonathan: thanks for joining us, i am jonathan caphart. look at what interviews we have next week, go to washingtonpost .com. i will see you next week. >> i, porter governor ron desantis against a series of speeches. watch beginning at 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. >> book to be every sunday on c-span2 features leading authors reading their latest nonfiction books. on tuesday, a conversation with the author of the some of us. and george packer. and an author of between the lines, a combination of interviews on the new york city subway. later, a discussion on an author whose posthumous work was published in 2018. at 10:00 p.m. eastern, the head of the children's hospital of philadelphia infectious diseases division talks about his book. he is interviewed by an epidemiologist. watch book tv every sunday on c-span2 and find a full schedule on your program guide. sunday on q&a, a discussion on the 14th amendment with professor randy barnett and evan bernick. they believe the 14th amendment has been widely misinterpreted. >> many of the criticis

jonathan: zach? zach: powell. jonathan: interesting. i'm surprised two went with reynard. -- brainard. next year, zero hikes next year? 0, 1, 2, or more? gene: i think two is most likely next year. zach: two. jonathan: drumroll, priya misra. priya: zero. jonathan: they are looking for december 2020 three. december 15, the federal reserve, a day later on december 16 we will hear from the ecb and bank of england too. if you could pick one that you want to know the results to ahead of time, which one would it be? priya: the boe. zach: boe. gene: it's gotta be the fed. these other ones are sideshows. jonathan: i'm surprised those two went with the bank of england. guys, good to catch up. from new york city, that is it for me. this was bloomberg "real yield." for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for mo

jonathan: any fed speak today? lisa: john williams is speaking from the new york fed stop jonathan: let's get so the new york market was closed. yields are higher by three basis points, higher on the front end as well. we will touch on that a little bit later and crude is down for another week. a third straight week of crude grinding lower. that goes back to march of this year. tom: i looked at the chart this morning and it is a grind lower. the sum total of inflation seems to be a lesson learned this week. not just about oil or rent, it's the sum of our inflation step jonathan: the euro dollar is negative lisa: we've been talking about policy diversions and that's been the theme of the week. i'm watching the idea that president biden will participate in the asia-pacific economic cooperation leaders meeting. the pandemic is an economic issue globally, the idea we have a zero covid policy in china and how do other nations deal with that which rely on china for supply chain issues at a time when their gdp has been de

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your equity market unchanged. "bloomberg surveillance this is"bloomberg surveillance -- this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: treasury secretary janet yellen is warning congress that it risked say government default if lawmakers don't raise the debt ceiling by december 15, the date when the new infrastructure bill requires the treasury to -- the european union is targeting key commodities in a move to prevent deforestation. it is unveiling new rules for companies selling soy, beef, palm oil, wood, and coffee. several barclays shareholders have raised concerns about terms of former ceo jes staley's de -- jes staley's departure. staley stepped down in the midst of a regulatory probe into a probe guarding his relation ship with disgraced financier jeffrey epstein. same-store sales rose two point 6%. analysts anticipated they would decline. pro basketball star lebron james and his teammate targeting a new name for their home court. now known as the staples center, next month, crypto.com will replace the offic

jonathan: we can hardly wait. let us bring in steve, the economic coverage and equity coverage as well. let us start with this equity market, you have pulled back on exposure, why is that? steve: we obviously had a really powerful bull market response. unusual for a recession period. but what we put into our note, what we put into groups like leisure, hospitality and cruise lines it has returned 180%. these are not really powerful long-term industries. they have made a full circle. what we want to do is to move into industries, components of the equity market that have long-term dividend income, outperformance of the economy that are safer. our overall equity overweight is about six percentage points, and at 11% earlier this year. tom: can the public hide in equities if they presume a higher inflation. are you forced to equities because nominal up inflation up is the only game in town. steve: that is a little too easy, again if we have markets -- market price inflation as a long-term problem, and believe me yields

jonathan: so are you asking me to like fill in or something? exactly, jonathan. and you'd be perfect. ok, so what's the shoot? it's easy, man. you're going to be working with some basketball team. ok. you're not going to have to get too involved, maybe do an interview or two. yeah. piece of cake. have fun and don't mess this up. wait, mess up? what am i going to mess up? jonathan: some basketball team? this isn't just some basketball team, this is the freaking harlem globetrotters. i'm ready to go. are you ready to go? i'm ready. you gonna dunk it for me? that's me, huh? oh i can just walk up and boom. jonathan: they break records. we actually have 22 guinness book of world records. jonathan: blazed trails. without the globetrotters, the nba would have never existed. jonathan: and are even immortalized as cartoons. the first time i saw the globetrotters it was on scooby doo. and i saw curly neal and i didn't even know they were real people. jonathan: unreal is one way to describe what makes the harlem globetrotters world famous. but let's just say-- that is extra

jonathan: euro-dollar, $1.15. let's get you some movers this morning and say good morning to romaine bostick. romaine: the big mover of the morning's johnson & johnson, making that announcement that it is going to split into two companies. one is going to include the pharmaceutical business and the medical devices business, and then of course, that consumer business going to be spun off as a standalone company. nowhere yet on how much this is going to cost and who is going to lead that consumer business. shares moving higher here. the ceo has been talking up the benefits of having this sort of three-tiered model, and this will persist for a much longer time. there's a lot of questions as to why they overlap those businesses. there could be a play later to spin off that device business. we are talking about two separate companies at least, seeing 18 to 24 months. it is interesting to see how we see that consumer-products businesses once it gets spun off and what ends up happening to that medical device business. al

jonathan: alongside lisa abramowicz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us tomorrow. the seventh straight day of gains on the s&p 500. futures building up. up six on the s&p. 2% gain on the week last week. the longest weekly winning streak back to august of last year. yields lower friday, higher this morning. on euro-dollar, firmer euro. euro 1.1580. crude 8152, up a third of 1%. will we have an announcement from this administration later this week on the oil front? that is a question for later this week. there is a question from now. this is a real text from tom keene. can you help me get a table for three at 12:30, we need to order soon? if you're a chef on the upper eastside and your name starts with a d, i think tom keene needs little bit of help getting a reservation. he has really left this one late. lisa: are we trying to save his marriage? jonathan: or spoil it, given that mrs. keene might be watching. tom, if you are watching, i will do my best to help you. robert, always good to catch up with you. if there is a man we need to

jonathan: gdp. tom: and to be clear, that is remarkably different than what we sense in the united states. jonathan: a pickup in growth in the u.k.. the problem is i think a lot of people think they may be responding to this prematurely because it might happen with inflation down the road, what might happen with the currency, trying to establish some credibility with the fx market. what would interest me is what happens at about 8:01, about six minutes from now. if we get a decision to hike interest rates, how does sterling respond? does sterling rally or selloff off the back of that? tom: do you look at euro sterling, or do you look at cable, sterling dollar? jonathan: with a personal bias, i am looking at cable. lisa: looking for an entry point. [laughter] tom: i actually almost understand. jonathan: you make this too personal sometimes. lisa: we get christmas presents depending on where cable is. tom: i kill it on sterling. jonathan: we will talk about it later. [laughter] futures up 0.1%. bank o

[laughter] jonathan: you think we get a hike next month, jonathan? jordan: we definitely get a hike, i think. that is not really a big call. the question is do we see more rate hikes for the rest of the year? that is getting tough. that is why we are short sterling because there's 115 basis points of rate hikes. pretty much every quarter you get a 25 basis point rate hike in that fx curve. that's kind of ok, but anything more, i doubt it. that is why the risk-reward is that banking might do less going forward. jonathan: thank you. big weekend for villa. jordan talked about the white house going after chair powell. use talk about it -- i used to talk about it often. but the former president was right when it came to monetary policy, and chairman powell eventually did change his mind. tom: most of the people pontificating about this don't know the history. forget about 1912 in all of that. there's a history here of about 1952, and then there is a really important historical moment in 1965, where lbj really leaned on mcchesney martin. by those terms, i

jonathan: you are specialized. you wait for the tourists to run away, and then when it starts to get comfortable, you lean back in. damian: looking china. right now, the high-yield market is sort of recovering. we talk about the relaxation of a pretty lending in china and how all of these defaults, all of these missed coupon payments we have been talking about for months, you are starting to see investors come back in. why? because china is allowing property developers to access the asset backed securities market. it has been on threes for three months -- unfreeze -- on freeze for three months. all of this is good news, and we are seeing that reflected in one small area in the emerging-market landscape, but structurally, i am a dollar bull. i have been for the better part of the last decade, and i don't think that is changing anytime soon. lisa: that's where i want to go, the idea that perhaps you saw capitulation in the chinese developer space. is there anywhere else in the world, in the developing market complex,

jonathan: dr. fauci there. for new york city this morning, jonathan ferro, tom keene and lisa abramowicz. yields are higher by four or five basis points. cpi wednesday. cpi in america coming out 8:30 eastern time. here is a stat for you that i was not aware of until i read this block on the white house -- blog on the white house website. over 7 million loaded containers were imported, 18% higher than over the same time in 2018, which had been the previous record. it doesn't get talked about enough. there has been a record volume going through these ports. tom: by comparison, this is a demand surge, there is -- that is all there is to it. clearly i am on the side that we should celebrate the demand surge. tom: -- jonathan: it is the mix of the market, leaning away from services. a conversation we have every single morning around this time. tom: it is cpi. jonathan: wednesday cpi, you know it. but that in a promo. tom: the associate professor of emergency medicine at johns hopkins look at the e.m. in our financia

jonathan: thank you. we wait and we wait to find out who is going to be the next chair. what does imminent mean? i've got no idea. annmarie: imminent for me means asap, as soon as possible. it is coming within hours. but we still don't have it, so i'm not quite sure. jonathan: thank you. we will have a domestic later about this, have a stronger conversation about why we haven't got it yet. i have we not got it? you know what is interesting for me? this market is price for a rate hike in the middle of next year, and td is at december 2023. that is an 18 month spread for something that some people think will happen in about six months time. lisa: if you think about how much volatility there has been in the two-year, that is likely to continue, right? if you look at the bank of america merrill lynch move index, it is expected to continue. when does that affect risk assets? does anyone care that you've got up-and-down short-term rates that actually is the benchmark for so many borrowing costs? this is one of

jonathan: consumer balance sheets. tom: exactly. jonathan: corporations, tom. there is liens of corporations. i've had my third beverage of choice last night watching the election results. when we start seeing a crunch of corporate paper, out? where ferro amalgamated comes out with like $7 million. jonathan: and we have to take it down, tom? lisa: i really want to underscore what alan ruskin was saying because it is a similar argument what bill dudley made in an opinion piece this morning. there is more room for the fed to raise rates than many people in the markets are aware of. this goes to the household debt levels which are low, and the corporations that have locked in straits that are low for a long time. it's genetic, i'm sorry. jonathan: we know it is going to get announced a little bit later. will it be preset? will it be autopilot? lisa: there is no reason for jay powell to push back against rate hikes. jonathan: do they drop the t-word? tom: do you think brim which was well said? lisa: what did i do, what do you want? jonathan: equity futures down two

jonathan: kailey leinz? kailey: you see the power crunch in particular is biting and that comes back to the conversation, why cop 26 will be so difficult because china is telling coal producers to produce as much as they can. they are worried about shoring up support for the communist party and less worried about climate change. jonathan: up 17 on the s&p. 4/10 of 1%. apparently, no journalistic integrity when you recommend things to buy. lisa a.: highlighting potential problem spots. jonathan: downside, i get it. futures up 17. from new york, this is bloomberg. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. ceo jes staley is stepping down from barclays amidst an investigation into how he characterized his ties to jeffrey epstein. on friday, staley and the british bank received u.s. regulators' preliminary consideration. they will rip -- replace staley. the u.s. and european union have reached a tariff busting trade agreement to fix the steel and aluminum market to leverage it into a broader global arra