ablin at cresset. welcome. patrick, i'll begin with you in my note, i keep seeing the word wobbly, your word, with respect to the u.s. economy. what are you seeing with the wobble >> oh, the recent economic data, you know, people may focus on the last gdp number and the first quarter but that disguised a significant slowing of momentum and a whole host of different numbers. earnings were up marginally but eight out of 11 sectors they are down year over year so i think that's one of the reasons why the fed is looking at cutting rates and why the market is eagerly anticipating that. >> quick follow-up how much of the decline in earnings is the result of unfavorable comparisons because it was the first quarter of last year or maybe the second quarter of last year, where the tax cuts really started to play and that that tonic has been taken out. >> well, you're not going to see another year like last year where you had at one point, you know, 30% year on year rise in earnings per share driven number one by

jack ablin is here with the go aheaden sectors. i'm guessing you're a stock guy? >> i am a stock guy but certainly gold is an interesting play if you think interest rates relative to, or real interest rates, interest rates relative to innation are going to continue to go lower. liz: i want to let people know it is up 1%, today, 16 bucks, should a bigger corner of people's portfolios put aside for bold just as a hedge? >> probably not a bad idea, liz. the fact is, we run a analysis of the price of gold relative to the total number of bonds outstanding in the world that have negative yields. what you will find is, as that number grows, so does the price of gold. right now that number is close to $13 trillion of bonds outstanding supporting negative interest rates. if you think that will expand, gold will continue to do well. liz: you like stocks. what sectors are you putting your shoulder behind? >> sure. right now i think we want to really focus on this trade issue with china. we don't think it will be resolved easily because it does represent such a wide gulf betw

joining the conversation jack ablin. good morning to you both how do you expect chair powell to characterize, i mean, what comes next he is cementing the case for cutting rates, but then what are we about to embark on an easing cycle or is it kind of a one and done >> our view is we are not about to embark on an easing cycle if you look at his testimony, he deliberately picked and chose the weak parts of the economy and seemed to be completely ignoring the strength. capital goods data that look like, boy, equipment investment is coming up consumer spending is strong. our view is he is clearly inclined to cut and looks like he reinforced that message with his testimony. if they cut the end of the month, the data that come in after that are going to be good enough, realize it probably wasn't necessary they won't regret it because what's the cost inflation? precious are muted we don't think they will go again after the end of july. >> jack, what is an equity investor to do >> well, the good news is i suppose we hit my 3,000

dagen: good to see you, jack ablin joining us, high-tech threat, peter thiel warning why google is national security, doubling down of investigation. johnson & johnson to report this morning as it deals with fallout from opioid crisis, the numbers as soon as they hit. dagen: welcome back, dagen mcdowell in for maria bartiromo, tuesday july 16th, top stories at 6:30 a.m. eastern, focus on earnings, one big morning for you coming up, dow components jpmorgan, goldman sachs and johnson & johnson reporting before the opening bell as well as wells fargo, dominoes, j&j out in moments, we will bring you the numbers as soon as they hit, we are expecting broadly speaking a 17% increase in earnings per share year over year but with dip in revenue, checking on markets, features -- futures looking for direction after record close yesterday, 3-point loss on the dow future at the moment, again, fresh all-time highs yesterday. in europe let's take a look at england, france and germany, we have slight gains across the board in those countries, major gauges there and in asia overnight, mixed markets, nikkei