♪ >> good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. i'm manus. let's set you up with the stories. china cuts rates as the economy takes repeated hits from coronavirus. global bonds under siege of the huge spike as traders ramp up the fed hike bet. actman shows for a 50 basis points hike. more turmoil in the embattled bank for breaking covid rules after just nine months on the job. 6:00 a.m. in london. and it is 7:00 a.m. at credit suisse. how do you shake the bond traders into accepting something may need be done at a dramatic level? bill actman makes the point. go large, go now, go early. 50 basis points. regain your credibility. the federal reserve could work to restore its credibilities with an initial 50 bits comprised to shock and awe the market. question to the market, when was the last time you saw 50 basis-point hike that was not very well guided to you? whatever way you stack it up, it could be shock and awe for the bond marriage i put it to you that this fed doesn't have the chutzpah do do it. this is the point, jimmy diamond saying fiv

alongside manus cranny in dubai. president joe biden said russia will pay a heavy price if any of its forces move across the border into ukraine. that is after suggesting earlier that western allies might struggle to react to a small-scale attack. those comments got a lot of attention and they, head of a meeting between antony blinken with his russian counterpart, sergei lavrov. back with us is the chief investment officer at julius baer. i know it's a lot of balls to juggle at this moment. we were talking about some of the macro risks and the fed risks but how are you evaluating the j risk of a potential conflict with russia and ukraine? >> my understanding is these are caused by the western attitude towards the ukraine situation more than russia and i see the russian response as aligned with russian interests. we don't expect the whole thing to blow up into a crossing of the border. things should calm down. it's difficult to trade these things and i don't think you can tactically protect yourself from this. i think

i'm dani burger in london, with manus cranny in dubai. it is all about bunds, closest to zero since 2019. we also have eurozone inflation data due this morning. the stator chiefs rates correspondent. how much staying power does it seem like bunds has this time around? >> this time around they're all local issues and global issues. bunds have been picking up in a way that treasuries were not for much of the second half of december. with this astonishing selloff i treasuries -- selloff of treasuries driven by the hawkish fed minutes, and strong concerns about inflation and the idea that inflation is going to persist is a major global problem, and central banks led by the fed will have to respond, that is a big part of what is driving bunds toward zero, which has been the upward bound since 2019. manus: if we look at the german inflation data, it dropped from the previous month, coming in just ahead of expectations. as we push toward zero on the bund yields, and inflation is not as aggressive or topside, it will hand the hawks on the ecb the

manus: good morning mar middle east headquarters in dubai. rate hike bets. stocks get a boost from earnings. apple and lvmh flow-through estimates despite the supply chain concerns. record sales. biden's warning. the president tells his ukrainian counterpart russia could invade next month. warm welcome to the show. dani is out. two unicredit, we are getting deep into the banks. light on estimates. the shock of course, we caught up with morgan stanley yesterday, could be you see rate rises earlier perhaps than the market is assuming. nobody is talking about a rate hike next week but european banks will be more interesting. let's see what they've got to say in terms of the bonus pool. we will come back to unicredit as the morning goes on. revenue going through the target. full-year revenue exceeding the 2021 target and they are talking about a pro forma basis of 14.13%. these are the headlines on unicredit. comfortable beat on the revenue side, exceeding 2021 as a whole. what do you do when the bond market convulses? the equity market has anaphylactic shock, r

i'm dani burger in london, with manus cranny in dubai. let's talk data out in just a few minutes, expected to confirm an ongoing surge in inflation. expectations are high. how high are they exactly, and what does this mean for the boe? >> inflation will hold steady at 5.1% in december, driven by airlines hiking prices to make up for lost trouble during the year. things like caterers, furniture, people staying at home sprucing up their living spaces, and you will also see car prices up because of the supply crunch in the industry. what it means for the bank of england, the november cpi, you can see what tipped the bank of england over the edge with the december rate rise. it makes a rate rise almost a certainty. markets are already pricing in a february rise. if we get that, it would be the first back-to-back hikes since 2004. manus: it's all about the labor market in this debate. we had a strong showing yesterday, unemployment of 4.1%, the best since june 2020. take us under the hood of what it looks like in the u.k.. lizzy: real wages we

i'm dani burger in london come alongside manus cranny in dubai. an australian judge has ordered the release of novak djokovic after squashing the decision to cancel his visa. manus: the 34-year-old world number one tennis star argued he did not need proof on vaccination because of evidence of a recent coronavirus infection. the court agreed it was unreasonable to cancel his visa in these circumstances. paul allen has been tracking this story from sydney. good to have you with us. what does this court decision actually mean? is djokovic free? paul: at the moment, he is free, and his lawyers argued two prongs. proper procedure was not followed at the border, he could not respond properly to the cancellation, and secondly you had a medical contradiction to covid because he tested positive on december 16. the judge ruled he should be immediately released from immigration, detention he should have his passport and belongings return to him, and the government should pay costs as well. during the hearing, the judge said, what more could this man have don

♪ ♪ manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. it's daybreak europe. the stories that set the agenda. biden expects russia to move in on ukraine as roadblocks to his domestic agenda mount. the tech heavy index dropped 10% from its peak. risk sentiment in asia gets a boost from the easing in china. turkey on hold. a pause to a series of rate cuts on a busy day for the central banks. good morning. are we hitting a critically important point in u.s. bond futures? short gamma and a negative convexity risk. they shorted the cause. you are looking ideal of 192. this is where the mega risk lies in the bond market, where it all begins to unfold. good morning. dani: very punchy of you to start off the morning with a little bit of the creeks. i really like this. this is called the swish moment. should we hit 127? he says it it would bring the tenure to a level of two into 12, a level last seen in 2019. that would have repercussions for the entirety of the market. dani: i like that. herein lies the point. what we are dealing with globally is an accelerated narrat

manus cranny is live in dubai. this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." treasury shakes off the biggest jump in cpi since 1982. the dollar pauses after it steepest decline since may. james bullard as his voice to the choir for a fed rate hike. plus, tsmc blaster estimates, the chip crunch boosts asia's most valuable company. we are going a little retro today, bringing it back to the 1980's. the hottest cpi inflation rating since the beginning of the period. i know you want to do karaoke today but we will try not to bring it to the top of the charts maybe. manus: i won't give you a rendition of the human league. you had all these counterculture bands coming to the fore. this is one of those tragic moments. the point is, it's about risk. dani: it is so true. one of the interesting risks creeping into portfolios is what happens with your bond exposure right now. jim said if you have bonds as they had you been losing money on that last year. this year as well. he recommends reducing your bond holdings by 50%. everybody is fleeing bond etf's. it is buyer stren

manus cranny is in dubai. on this program we've had the value versus growth debate play out in some shape or another. since 2007, the winner has decisively been growth. is it different this time, with the fed that started to broadcast a more hawkish policy, and after powell's testimony yesterday, the 10 year yield has started to move significantly higher. with that, value has outperformed growth in the s&p 500 by five percentage point so far this year. but how much staying power does this move have? let's bring it to our guest this morning, good morning to you and thanks for joining us. does value have further to run? >> one of these suggestions is that even at the trend is toward value, you've got first a rotation into value and then back to growth. bond yields were longer which is a key factor. manus: good morning, the question is, we only have one other reference point, back around 2017. at that point equities convulsed and the curve flattening. so what's going to be different this time to start qt? rupert:

i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. jay powell indicating he will stay humble and nimble. the markets not looking so humble today. the hang seng on track for record low, falling as much as 4.9%. something is moving three standard deviations or more. it is yet again another volatile day. manus: the renminbi is certainly on the move, down by .4%, the dollar rising. it's in the rates market when you begin to see what is happening. morning the usa and going global, quite literally. we are in a bear market. hang seng, tech at a record low. in four weeks, rates have gone to 1.2. the market has doubled its rate hike. this is asian stock performance at the moment and the hang seng tech index down 4.8%. this is a brutal repricing of all things equity and a slow down. dani: it's remarkable to see what the two year yield is doing. we were talking not that long ago and now were looking at a two year yield at its highest since 2020. you continue to see the curve flattening with all the action on the front end here. manus: this is th

manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny with dani burger in london. it is "daybreak: europe." asian stocks sink after the s&p 500 stages its biggest turnaround since 2008. hiking insight -- aussie yields surge. plus, eastern europe on edge -- the europe puts thousands of troops on alert because of the russia/ukraine crisis. welcome to the sign, a warning shot, it is credit suisse, a material slowdown in the business of wealth management and a provision of 500 million swiss francs. in terms of litigation, they will offset part of that through some of their estate sales. a warning shot on a material slowdown in wealth management. good morning. dani: good morning. this comes off the back of significant changes credit suisse has had to make. we are seeing the impact of that filter through earnings, they say combined with the reduction in their overall risk appetite, to exit that part of the business, they are seeing a loss for the investment bank division. this has been a powerhouse for wall street earnings but not so at credit suisse. manus: the

it is kind of similar to the dubai artificial islands. this demolition would only be about one 30th of that. in proportion to the development, it is not huge, but for the apartment blocks, this is a project evergrande spent about 100 billion yuan if you years ago to start developing. this is just reputationally not great for evergrande, a company that is already severely in debt and looking for property sales to find the cash to repay that debt. again, not a good thing and you are seeing market reaction across the board in hong kong. manus: why such a strong market reaction? the debt issues where the q4 issue. we were told that is not a huge systemic moment. the reaction you are seeing here -- talk me through that. >> it is kind of a cell first ask later. evergrande suspended trading in its shares and did not say why. it said it will clarify the suspension in due course with an insider transaction announcement. but again, this is a sector that is struggling to raise funds. at the end of the last quarter in december, there was excitement,

manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny, dani burger alongside me in london. these are your stories to set the agenda. the u.s. has ordered citizens and family members to leave ukraine as attentions -- as attentions continue. -- tensions continue. the fomc will be more aggressive than expected. yields climb and u.s. futures advance. plus, the crypto crunch continues. bitcoin drops 50%. a very good morning. we are waiting for phillips to give us their numbers, and they are in across the screen. fourth quarter at 13.1%. this is a squeeze, they warned the market a couple of weeks ago in terms of sales, revisions, chips. the estimate was 15.5%. what else have we got on phillips? dani: we have a dividend per share at 85 euros. fourth quarter net income 157 million euros. it is also a recall over sleep apnea machines as well. as you said, they warned against, and it means higher provisions as well. missing estimates. they tried to adjust the estimates. we will get more in a little bit. we have the phillips ceo t

manus: a very good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny alongside dani burger at london hq. fed rate hike surge. powell voiced vigilance, saying he will not let inflation take root. and vice chair clarity resigns two weeks early. plus, the usm or desha thou to continue talking -- plus the u.s. and russia vow to continue talking. we have moved from existential angst to palpable ease. the market is teetering literally on the edge of reality. he was channeling churchill. dani: he really is. it is this precipice of change that he is capturing in this market, saying this is not the end, not even the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning. as you say, channeling churchill. we see some slows in the bond market. manus: we brought this up last week. we wondered whether you had a shot -- shock and you would say on the equity side of the market, there is something strange going on. dani: hey, i always defer to the experts. it is not me saying something strange is going on. it is charlie mick elliott. always reall

manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. dani burger in bloomberg hq. treasury yields surge with the two-year topping 1% since early -- for the first time since early 2020. a drone strike on abu dhabi sparks tensions. crisis planning. finance ministers meet in brussels on how to tackle challenges of energy and russia. and our the bond markets really under siege? is this the foothill of a taper tantrum at the 2013? state street have warned this is the fed fighting the ghosts of inflation, which will fly away in 2022. good morning. dani: good morning. it comes during the fed blackout period. there has been the run on the bank many had feared. we love a nice round number. the two-year the highest since february 2020. nearly 15 basis points on the front end of the curve in just two days. manus: higher and higher. this is your two year yield up over 2%. the short end of the curve has a frisky, risky move. the question is what happens next with balance sheet reductions? by the way, we run a risk of shock. that is when the wheels come off the bus. >> the dread

dani: i can only imagine the surge in purchases in dubai once everyone sees manus driving one of these around. you mentioned huge competition coming to tesla. tesla proved you could do this. you heard from executives at ces saying they are now getting into ev's. what does the competition look like right now? >> we take a look at the biggest automakers, toyota and volkswagen, and assess their plans to take on musk and electric vehicles. when we started reporting out this story, it was really a case where you looked at those companies and looked at them as big contrasts of one another. both had no choice but to push into electric vehicles because of the diesel scandal of about seven years ago now. what we have seen is that toyota, which has been a holdout , because they have had such a strong position in hybrids have not necessarily need to go fully electric. they have been doubters in terms of the prospects for ev's. they have gotten religion and it is the case that toyota in the last few months has one after another significant events to lay out there thinking, their plans for electric

i'm dani burger alongside manus cranny live from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the chorus for fed hikes grows. equities slide aztec tanks -- slide as tech tanks. goldman commodity traders post their best year in a decade. jp morgan, citi, and wells fargo kickoff earnings. does the fed have the stamina to tackle inflation to the degree they need to? dr. doom himself who of course was very vocal during the 1970's, henry kaufman says no. he says to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock markets. you cannot raise interest rates bit by bit. manus: but did we make it to the end of the week really intact? the dollar flopped and rolled over. yields almost exhausted themselves. they were out of puff by the time they got to the end of the leg. i like the way you put it, have the fed locked themselves in? four rate hikes, five rate hikes, that is not tightening, merely adjusting to normalization. a more normalized world. you are going to have 70 banks due to hundred rate hikes this year according to martin malone. a paradigm shift in

♪ manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. it's daybreak europe. the stories that set your agenda. fed minutes signal a more aggressive rate hiking schedule than expected. the treasury picks up steam. stocks and futures drop as tech sells off. bund deals make a break for zero. german inflation today may shift the narrative. gradualism is toast. the balance sheets will be reduced. the question for the bond market is, what is the pace of balance sheet reduction? how and when will they do it? good morning. dani: good morning. it's not often that we have a minutes that will take the market by surprise. the fed is abandoning gradualism. yesterday, it looked like a step change. that's a shock to markets. the past four days, this is the biggest move for real yields since march 2020. manus: the question is this. we are moving from qe to qt. this is what we must abate, the scale of the shock and equities. that has not manifested itself to a far shock. that's what the fed must avoid. avoid the shock. dani: absolutely. for the most part, we've continued to ha

♪ manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. it's daybreak europe. the stories that set the agenda. fed day. jay powell will set a march hike. how big? president biden ways sanctions against vladimir putin while russia invades ukraine. germany seeks an exemption for energy. big tech clause back the losses. microsoft shares rebound after hours as the cloud looks set to drive the growth ahead. it's fed day. what jay powell says will absolutely define q1 and q2 for the bond market. i like what valerie had to say this morning. the short end is all hocked up. how are the clients position going into this? this is what is happening at j.p. morgan. the short-sellers have been wiped out. there's been a collapse in the short positions. the equity market crash. the bond market cleansed its sole of the short-sellers and the primary sellers george. i like that word. dani: i like the word cleanse. we all need a little bit of cleansing. it's hard to tell whether this is the markets getting spooked or it is simply profit-taking. it's not just the bond market. you sa