from new york city, good morning to you all. coming up from the bloomberg new economy forum, we will hear from the prime minister of singapore. from new york city, for our audience worldwide on radio and tv, it is imminent. tom: i still cannot spell it. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden is still deciding whether to reappoint federal reserve chair powell or replace him. he told reporters to expect an announcement in the next four days. a chairman said there is no doubt the senate will confirm either candidate. inflation and the u.k. is at the highest level in the decade putting pressure on the bank of england to raise interest rates. higher costs for fuel, restaurants and hotels led to adjustment in prices. a secretive government-backed organization -- competing semiconductors. some tech giants see the metaverse as the next area of growth. the ceo of google. >> the market valuation, our mission is timeless. there is more need for information than ever before. ritika: global news 24 hours a day, on air and o

jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 0.3%. for macy's, it is a beat and a raise. tom: it is a technology raise as well. i go back to 2019, and this is not target, not home depot, but they are up 8% plus going back to sales in 2019. a fairly clear press release, they increased 19% through the pandemic. they have grown 49% since pre-pandemic. that gives you an idea of the new reality is what you do against amazon. jonathan: it is fair to say that retailers in america are executing. tom: they are executing in a new world. i'm romantic. you and lisa i am sure as a kid did this. i wanted to bring back the wooden escalators at herald square. jonathan: the narrow ones? did you fit into the? -- into them? tom: no i did not. it was a moment where we could feel british. wooden escalators from another time. jonathan: do they still have the met bergdorf's? tom: no they don't. jonathan: i

look at the rents in new york city if you want to go personal. the other thing is the academics, the economics. there are some arguments. i like what adam said, we better get used to 3% inflation. jonathon: he is saying embrace it, not just get used to it. tom: well said. jonathon: it is well said. i am not saying i agree, what i am suggesting that is what he is supplying. tom: it is well said. jonathon: we see how this is going this morning. tom: they showed english football with larry king. jonathon: international break. equity futures up one third. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. so many people are overweight no

let's go over to long island city, new york, where yesterday new york city school shutdown. ps-166. some 900 students, 62 teachers, they are out of it. we will be talking about two other schools under review. i thought we were all clear, we are not. >> we are getting there. this has been a great week. hundreds and thousands of children are about to get vaccinated. the least likely to tolerate masks, the youngest. children need two doses and two weeks after that is where you fully are able to say you're immunized. tom: what have you learned in the first few days? vaccines? what is the professional observation you had about this process? >> i've learned more from the clinical trials which have shown there is a side effect profile that is appropriate for this age group. from the last couple of days, we know that cvs, walgreens called hospitals, pediatricians offices are ready and excited to be vaccinating i've been seeing a lot of buzz on social media, two. lisa: we are also looking at potential boosters and it is unclear whether the u.s. boosters for the regular population in addition

from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. house democrats are expected to pass president biden's $1.6 trillion economic agenda today. they had hoped for a vote late yesterday, but republican leader kevin mccarthy put that off with a lengthy speech from the floor that lasted into the early hours this morning. meanwhile, the nonpartisan congressional budget office released its estimate that the biden bill does not contain enough tax increases to pay for itself. two progressive democrats senators say they are opposed to jerome powell getting a second term as chair of the fed. they say that powell lacks a strong commitment to address the growing risk of climate change. president biden will announce his assistant before thanksgiving. austria will impose a nationwide lockdown next week. germany may take a similar move. it is all part of europe's effort to cope with a surge of the deadly virus. austria will also require all residents to get a vaccination. christmas came early for b

from new york city, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. your equity market at all-time highs. the bond market, yields lower. we come into thursday with a record high on the s&p and an all-time high on the russell. tom: the vix back to 15.02, but a constructive tape. jonathan: with the patient powell. next year, we will have the same conversation about this earnings season going into four q where the margins can hold up. we will be doing that as growth is decelerating. 4% to get it done, do we have a significant move towards 3%? forget the goldman sachs view? that is a big slowdown. tom: that calculation of nominal gdp forward really full to into this equity enthusiasm. we took comfort yesterday from the chairman. we have been enthused by johns hopkins university. there is some distinguished vintage at johns hopkins. one of them is a professor of public health at the bloomberg school. he is truly one of the world's experts, with a focus on southeast asia and thailand. thailand a few days ago began to open its borders. they seem to be pushin

there has been and anne-marie citing in new york city. you mentioned euro, bank of america is negative. it is the antilock -- anti-goldilocks weighing on european equities. tom: it's getting a little chilly here come a little bit of arctic gold coming into minnesota. it's the same thing in europe. it's the sum total of europe subsiding. what does that mean for chairman powell? jonathan: that's the european situation and we reopen the bond market stateside. this treasury market has been totally whipsawed. lisa: the expectation is for that to continue. the implied volatility and treasury yield have risen to the highest since the height of the pandemic. why are stocks not responding more to the volatility we are seeing in bonds and the rise we have seen in short-term yields? jonathan: any fed speak today? lisa: john williams is speaking from the new york fed stop jonathan: let's get so the new york market was closed. yields are higher by three basis points, higher on the front end as well. we will touch on that a little bit later and crude i

from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market futures up 17, up 0.4% on the s&p. it is day two reaction to that cpi print. tom: dr. el-erian really talking it up in "the ft," and you wonder what the substantial further progress will be to get any central bank to look at inflation, double anything considered normal. jonathan: people are so dug in on this debate. did yesterday and that print change anybody's mind on anything? tom: absolutely not. we need to see a sequence of prints. where it is going to come from is this really strange thing called owners equivalent. you flunk exams trying to explain it. only mckee at bloomberg understands it. jonathan: it is going up. even if you strip out the energy story, it is going up. it is stickier, broader, and a lot of people are funding it very difficult to remain open-minded about incoming data to shift their view for the. path forward. they have become

from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market just off all-time highs. futures softer by 0.1%. it is all about chairman powell a little bit later. tom: we will have special coverage with some terrific guests lined up. after the press conference, it is the then what. the jobs report is getting no respect today's on. -- no respect two days on. jonathan: the extra leverage senator manchin may have gotten overnight by the political events in this country. tom: some predicted it, many did not. the republicans win. new jersey is a job dropper. we don't know yet. 88% of the vote in. we will see how that goes. but it is is a readjustment. the liberals had a tough night. jonathan: you raise an important question here. what is the big surprise, the swing in virginia or how tight new jersey is? lisa: new jersey i think is the bigger surprise, but the fact that both are occurring at the same time are raisin

from new york city this morning, good morning. your equity market futures unchanged after an eight day winning streak on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> viruses can adapt and escape from some of these antiviral treatments. what looks good and one clinical trial now might not look good a year from now is the virus mutates. it is in some respects easier to mutate away from a vaccine. i would not take my foot of the accelerator. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. your equity market, unchanged on the s&p. eight day winning streak on the s&p 500. yields come in three basis points, a big debate on who the next fed share will be. on crude, $82.29, up by .4%. your stock mover of the hour is ge, splitting into three and ending the conglomerate for good, up by 10.9%. tom: it is amazing to go back six years to the peak of employment. much larger than some of our larger banks and a global financial platform as well. from three hundred 30,000 down to 170,000 right now. you wonder where that will be in five years. jonathan: and with

from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: seven days of gains into monday. we had some weight to those gains, zero point 07% on the s&p 500. -- zero point 07% on the s&p 500. -- 0.07% on the s&p 500. when you think about the outlook year ago, they were bullish. it sounded crazy, and here we are paring year-end here, for percent upside on the s&p 500. muted gains are the theme for the outlooks. let's get to the individual names talking about the airlines . american airlines up by 1%. united up by 1%. today an important date. if you are vaccinated you can travel to america. borders reopening for the vaccinated. the pfizer pill, the news that dropped on friday, got buried in the news and payrolls news and wall street. that could open the door for these two pick once more. matt: it is an absolute game changer. if it works as advertised and lowers hospitalizations and deaths in unvaccinated, high-risk patients, then it effectively ends the pandemic. aaron rodgers could take pill instead of ivermect

from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i'm ritika gupta. a hill -- the race to create a pill to treat covid-19 is heating up. the drugmaker will submit its findings to the u.s. for emergency authorization shortly. an experimental pill was recently submitted to regulators. bloomberg is learning aids have not been publicly identified -- he has not believed to have had close contact with the president. jen psaki confirmed that she tested positive for covid. analysts say that reduced guidance suggested -- peloton admitted that it underestimated the impact of reopening. steep losses earlier this year. the investment manager will stop investing in japan and korea. it lost an estimated 11% in september alone. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> what i think is going on in the labor market right now, we have not had big legislative setbacks. it is employers making up their minds. jonathan: the payrolls report joining us in 12 minutes time. equity futures are up 11. i always love this week,, tom when we put together some of the best gues

jonathan: the winning streak continues from new york city this morning. good morning. six day winning streak on the nasdaq 500. 2/10 of 1% in the s&p. payrolls are minutes away. through the week yields on the front end coming in just a little bit. that accelerated on the back of a rank of robin nondecision yesterday -- bank of brendan nondecision yesterday -- bank of britain nondecision yesterday. tom: the u.k. 10 year yield has vaulted back towards the u.s. 10 year yield. jonathan: the conditionality of some of the messaging -- my rent is over. do not -- my rant is over. do not encourage me. here we go. you can imagine how that worked out, tom. employment and population ratio, it dips lower through the pandemic, climbs back quickly. can we get back to where we were? how much patience does the federal reserve have to get? tom: that is the single most important chart in america right now. jonathan: lisa, i know you have some thoughts. your labor apart is -- report is 60 minutes away. >> trivago bookings were good. 2022 caused a lot of these companies not only to beat on

jonathan: from new york city for audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. one man's bubble, another man's full market. >> there are some extraordinary valuations. >> we forecast this multiple. >> it is my favorite call for 2022. >> stocks are still the most interesting investment. >> definitely pockets of green. >> that is uncomfortable for investors. >> to not take money off the table. >>

new york city this morning. good morning. tom: i had a double cheeseburger. ♪ leigh-ann: in china, the economy performed but are than expected in october. energy shortages eased. the jobless rate was study. a slump in property and rising coronavirus outbreak shows that recovery is not on solid ground just yet. the central bank should not overreact to inflation. it is likely to prove temporary. overreacting to a short time -- short-term increase could set them back in the long-term. british economists expect the bank of england to increase interest rates next month. that would make the u.k. the first major economy -- shortages of workers are getting worse and driving up wages. there is concern that it could spread inflation across the economy. this is bloomberg. -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the pandemic has been calling the shots for the economy and for inflation. if we want to get infl

." >> is fed decision day from new york city for our audience worldwide. good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live. your equity markets unchanged after four days of gains and another all-time high. dark of the fed just around the corner is going to be the vocus today. a great equity ghettos, abby will join us later. john, we have got to get abby joseph cohen at 5100 or 5200. got to get past david costin. what we have got to get past, the fed meeting on the jobs state. and then we have got to do a little bit of politics. john: that's talk about the politics. the narrative this morning, a simple term, massive overreach. ■]■] ■emem surveillance beauty rest. as mentioned moments ago, the shocker is new jersey. yes, in virginia, the democrats are transitory, the republican will win. but in new jersey, 80% in, and republican exactly 1200 votes ahead of the democrat. that is a shocker. john: too close to call. >> that is what i'm wondering, how much this actually pushed the moderates and getting more clout and frankly, getting the head

jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance lift. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan darrow together with kailey leinz. the equity market on the s&p up 0.8%. not many people convinced by this balance. -- balance. -- bounce. tom: we are back in halfway, but it does not feel like it. jonathan: governments unwilling to change their forecasts until we get more detail on this variant. tom: we lack the data. just restart -- joshua sharfstein will be with us later what i see is a wall street saying, we need more data. jonathan: kaylee, we still do not know. kailey: i wonder if that is why you are not seeing a more convincing bounced in equities. the s&p is up 0.8%, but that does not even cover half the loss on friday. the market still seems iffy. jonathan: we have got a few more weeks of this. three weeks until the federal reserve decision. the fed stuck between a rock and a hard place. tom: the u.s. economy is humming. we may see that in the jobs on friday. jon, you'd like the ism stuff. we know air -- our greek letters. this is omicron. b

from new york city, tom keene and lisa abramowicz and tom ferro. futures positive 50 and we advance around .3%. yields are unchanged. the main event in the fs market is darl -- dollar-lire. 10.9765 is the high. that is off of the back of a 100 basis point cut, and one of the most hawkish things that i have heard for a wild. they will study ending the rate cuts in december. tom: they have to get to december and i think the dynamic folks were confused by the chart, i was going to call it -- it a modest strengthening and a disappointment of this announcement. you wonder what they want, they want mr. erdogan to have an understanding of econ 101, that is really what is missing. jonathan: it is counterintuitive, for those of us wondering if i was being sarcastic, i was. it is the most hawkish thing that i have heard in quite a while. lisa: the idea that we are talking about a bank that dismisses the fundamental economic principles that tightening rates and policy and raising rates will lead to lower inflation and they outright reject that. tom: we have t

from new york city, for our audience worldwide, could morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. your equity market advancing about 0.1%. this feel that came out of last week continues. lisa: progrowth, yet you are not seeing it in the bond market. we have been talking all morning, how much are we bringing the future growth back into the equity market and pricing it in now? what is the path from here? that is where you get the real divergence among strategists. jonathan: as you say, the equity market telling you one thing for you looking -- telling you one thing. looking at the bond market, the jobs report was interesting. lisa: what we heard is we don't know. we don't understand the recovery of this market, as well as the economists. we will see. jonathan: what i heard is plug in your own forecast and make your mind up. that is what you heard? lisa: absolutely. which is why they stuck with their trade. we did see people diminishing the idea of rate hikes. i did not understand why, especially in the dynamism of that report.

from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro, together today with matt miller. tom keene back tomorrow. a seventh straight day of gains into monday. it could become eight. this equity market is hot. lisa: definitely fueled by earnings, as well as rates that remain low. i would just say i am not bearish, but the air is getting thinner. at what point, how much fuel does this have left at a time when we are facing slowing growth heading into next year? jonathan: i thought the back end of last year, that was the question. did we just put out a 25% gain for 2021, at least so far, so good. lisa: that was with a huge fiscal and monetary stimulus both firing in tandem. you have a changed environment heading into next year. you will have withdrawal of stimulus not only for the federal reserve, but globally on some level that you should think will affect the market in some meaningful way. jonathan: are you excited for fed speak later? li

from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. jonathan: live from new york city with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a lift in the last hour. up .4% on the s&p. the nasdaq doing ok, up .5%. the russell up .6%. euro-dollar 1.1445. your bond market, yields in one basis point on tens to 1.5528. we come up with mohamed el-erian and got his thoughts on the federal reserve and where inflation is going in on why he thinks this is one of the worst inflation calls in decades. mohamed: inflation is much higher than they expected, they look at inflation much broader than they expected, and they lo

i am wondering about new york city workers. you have to get a vaccine or you cannot show up to work. a lot of people not coming in it is this the right way to do it? >> it is complicated. my view depends on the type of occupation. there are a number of jobs where people can really make other people sick. health care workers can take their patients sick. that goes for the police, firefighters who are in people's homes. if they are passing covid on, i think it is terrible. it is totally appropriate for there to be a requirement. when you make a requirement like this, you have got a big chunk of people who are already vaccinated you have a lot of people who go, ok, i will vaccinated. i was out vaccinating this weekend. a bunch of those people came in. they are not upset. but then you have got people who are hard-core refuses that is difficult. it is difficult if there are a lot of them. we are going to see whether that is disruptive. some of them will get vaccinated if pushed, but it is unpleasant. jonathan: always good to get you

from new york city, your equity market up two points. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york we begin with the big issue. the central bank deluge begins. >> you have central banks struggling. >> yield control abandoning was the first step. >> it seems like the market is ahead of what the central banks are doing. >> the market has undergone a significant front end repricing. >> if the yield curve is talking, is anybody risking -- is anybody listening? >> we will see central bankers who get a little bit too

york city from southern europe to ignite that horrific epidemic across new york city. we know this virus has already spread around the world. that is not because there's anything unique to omicron. that has been true of every variant we have seen so far. by the time we identify a variant, it has gone global. a lot of this is based on optics , where especially in the eu they want to show they are doing something. unfortunately it is self-defeating and impairs our ability to fight the pandemic and punishes african countries and hurts the economy because it spreads unnecessary panic among investors. it is a policy failure on all accounts. kailey: we did see that panic in the markets on friday. this monday morning we are getting a lift as people understand we have very little information at this point. what information is most critical to ascertain first? dr. hotez: three things we need to know. one about the severity of the illness. so far it does not look like this variant is producing anything unusual in terms of severity of illness, but we will know more. second, we ne

from new york city, on radio, on tv, retail sales up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities. jonathan: your economic data in america is seconds away. futures up two or three points, advancing .5%. 10-year gilts -- michael: up 1.2% on the month. have a that is petroleum. a little more than half is petroleum. we are up on import prices 10.7%. inflationary pressures from overseas. retail sales headline of 1.7%. that is 1% above the .7% last month. it is significantly better than what had been forecast. the ex auto number 1.7% as well. the control group, which is what economists watch, the retail sales, up 1.6% that is double last months and certainly bet

from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro here with lisa abramowicz. it is yesterday in reverse. tom: up and down. looking at resistance and -- frankly, i know you have been looking at this. the 10 year yield is extraordinary, from up to down, 1.70, to 1.47, back to 1.70. jonathan: you talked about the volatility of the 10 year pay let's talk about the two year yield, which has moved in a straight line friday, monday, tuesday. that tells you about the rate hike debate. tom: let's open this up. has the right height -- rate hike debate disappeared? jonathan: it has shifted in the last couple of days. tom: oil is its own sub story as well. what we need to do, and we have felt this way 20 months -- we will talk science, not guessing, about omicron. it is what it is, and they're so much we and the president of the united states do not know. jonathan: there are so many things. -- a lot of people pointing to that interview. can i read a

from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: janet yellen's warning congress it risks of government default if lawmakers do not raise the debt ceiling by december 50. that is the date when the new infrastructure bill requires the treasury to transfer $180 billion to the highway trust fund. leaders have not disclosed how they plan to resolve the issue. in wisconsin a jury will begin deliberation in the trial of kyle rittenhouse, the teenager who killed two men during the chaotic black lives matter rally. kyle rittenhouse could face life in prison if he is convicted of the most serious charge against him, intentional homicide. in germany the number of coronavirus cases has risen to a record. germinate will delay some vaccine donations -- germany will delay some vaccine donations to make sure it has enough stirrers for its own residents. -- to prevent deforestation. new rules for companies selling beef, coal, oil -- the ghosted -- the goal is to cut greenhouse gas emissions. lowe's reported stronger-than-expected revenue. s

from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> oil is heading for the longest run of weekly losses since march. president biden is keeping investors guessing as to whether he will intervene on prices. the price in the u.s. has hit a seven-year high leading to a number of moves including a release from the reserves. the electric vehicle company raised $12 million earlier this week and wants to open two new assembly factories that were already planned. arizona, michigan, and texas are being considered for the sites. plans for a new global carbon market have run into new obstacles. talks will continue today with less than 24 hours to go before the summit is set to wrap up. democrats try to pass the tax and spending package. democrats want to expand it as one of president biden's economic plans. progressives are opposed to some version of the salt tax. a federal appeal has temporary granted the former president's request to keep documents from being released to a congressional committee investigating the capitol riots. global news 24 hours a day. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >>

from new york city, on tv, on radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. futures positive 16 on the s&p. no economic data today, no notable economic data, outside of the bond market in america, which is closed for veterans day. in europe yields are higher. the stage is set for december on the 15th for the federal reserve, on the 16th for the ecb, and the simple but effective take from thank america. "the heat seed in rent and across america could make the fit -- could make the fed sweat. the timing for rate hikes be pulled forward." yesterday they were. tom: even out to may 4, each and every meeting will be interesting. we await the decision on who will be the next for the continuing chairman of the federal reserve system. right now, daniel alpert joins with his definitive book on the crisis on the age of oversupply. let me read with your emotion. you say lose bah humbug, we should be grateful for inflation. daniel: the huge amount of government that

jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide on tv, on radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up about seven points, advancing little more than a 10th of 1%. five-day winning streak into thursday on the s&p, a day on the nasdaq. we have some data. let's bring in michael mckee. michael: let's look at initial jobless claims. 269,000, the trend continues. we are looking at where we were pre-pandemic. we were hoping we would see productivity increases as companies invest to get around the fact we do not have enough workers. productivity down 5%. we will get some revisions. a 5% decline. we had seen a 2.1% increase in the prior quarter. the unit labor cost issue is obviously going to be higher. it is 8.3% up, that is more than the 7% forecast and certainly more than the 1.3%. we did see it cost employers a lot more to bring people back. the trade balance comes in at $80.9 billion. that is more than the $72 billion revised number for the prior month. this is for september. we knew this would happen because the advanced report on trade had

jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. here's the wednesday morning price action. unchanged on the s&p. on the nasdaq palma -- on the nasdaq, positive by a little more than 0.2 europe 2% -- more than 0.02%. -- little more than 0.15%. the 10 year, the two-year come of 30 year. here's the rate call over at morgan stanley. they think you wrap up qe by the middle of next year, you hike in the first quarter of 2023, and they believe the 10 year yield ends next year at 2.1%. right now, 1.6353%. that is the bond market call. ellen's and her making the cause -- ellen zentner making the call on the fed. the likes of mike wilson saying that high yield is going to start to shrink margins, and of course, multiples. that high yield hurting multiples specifically. for this market, that means an equity market that heads back towards 4400. tom: she looks for inflation to moderate in february. that is a belief, a study by the very qualified economist, and that brings that nominal gdp in, and that is how you get to the lower multiple call. jonathan: multiples come in, yields go high

from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. -- live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the year-end outlooks poor in. tom: i have never seen it like this. the deep visions we see not only at versus other houses, but just the disparity of the call of, finance, investment, we have never seen this before. jonathan: are you finding it hard to identify a consensus view? tom: yes. where it is is exactly that. there is no consensus. there will be a mathematical consensus. nobody does it better than bloomberg, but the consensus is the sum of parts of huge idiosyncratic belief. jonathan: interested to see morgan stanley go with q1 2023 for that first fed hike. . lisa: i would say the consensus is i have not heard one call for recession, not one call for a crash. even morgan stanley with a 4400 call for the s&p, that is only a decline of about 6%, so v

from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on this fit decision day. your equity market down five. into the bond market, a little announcement. yields in one basis point. 1.5348 on tends. let's get to that announcement. how much supply we get from the treasury. michael: treasury is cutting the size of its options going forward -- of its auctions going forward. raising $44.1 billion, 10 year $39 billion, and the 30 year bond in the amount of $25 billion. the cutbacks are these. they will be cutting the size of 3, 10, and 30 year refunding sales by $2 billion each and cut the seven year by $3 billion and they say the seven years being cut because that is the one they increased the most so they are cutting it back the most. they anticipate decreases of $2 billion a month in the new and reopened 10 year options -- auctions and the new and reopened 30 year options. -- auctions. it says in its release based on the latest fiscal outlook, current sizes are projected to provide excess borrowing capacity over

. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city on bloomberg radio and tv, good morning. equity futures slightly negative, 0.04% lower. the s&p 500, in and around 7400. goldman sachs looking for 5100 year-end. they are bullish and expecting margins to keep growing even of cost pressure continues rising. at the front end of the yield curve, the bond market, twos, tens, and 30's, we are starting to think about rate hikes. the front end of the yield curve was whipsawed in the last month, not by the federal reserve but by the bank of england and governor bailey. governor bailey in the last 24 hours saying he is increasingly uneasy with the inflation profile. how is the labor market doing after the u.k. support program for the labor market rolled over and closed off? the labor market is doing ok in the u.k. so far. the cable and the fx market, sterling just a little stronger, the panic against the u.s. dollar. positive 2/10 of 1%. we are having a conversation with governor bailey and the bank of england hiking interest rates next month. tom: give us some color. how unusual is

from new york city, good morning. tom keene, the surf waves, and jonathan ferro. -- lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. all-time highs and a nice feature of 4600 as we start another day. in the bond market yields unchanged. 154. the fed decision comes tomorrow. senator manchin holding this bill hostage is not going to work in getting my support for the reconciliation package. tom: this could be a one hour conversation. the politics that the president come home to -- comes home to will be extraordinary. joining us now, we are thrilled she can be with us and we will take a moment in the ark of this pandemic, this 18 months, we have misses kenneth walker the third joining us. emily, wonderful to have you here. that was one of the most extraordinary games. john watched it, i watched it, lisa watched it, but you lived it. what was it like to see east lansing at last ann arbor? emily: like many spartan games, it was basically being nervous for most of the game until the very last minute in which you suddenly realize that w

jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro together with matt miller. the focus is on europe. lisa: very much so. austria announcing a lockdown and restriction in movement. you are seeing german cases sore and this is bleeding into euro weakness and frankly oil weakness as well as people recalibrate the global economy. jonathan: euro-dollar 1.13 and bravely with a 1.12 handle. restrictions and austria and may be more out of germany. matt miller commodore thoughts? matt: my thoughts are you see a real safe haven bid. the strength of the dollar caught my eye, but then i saw the yen is strengthening even more. investors are looking for safety. they are buying bonds and selling stocks. it is not a huge move in risk assets outside of the fx world but it is a concern. 400 cases for every 100,000 people in germany. 1000 new cases for every 100,000 people in austria. jonathan: italian bonds are curious. yields lower in italy into the ecb. that decision a month away. lisa: this ties the hand

from new york city, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i am leigh-ann gerrans. financial markets appear to have been spooked by comments about the omicron variant from executives at moderna. new vaccines will be needed and it will take months to develop. on bloomberg tv the chairman says we need to take the new variant for the serious threat it poses. manufacturing rebounded in november after a power crunch subsided and current pressures eased. the purchasing managers index rose with expansion in production. that is the first time that has happened in three months. a warning from the spacex the ceo elon musk. most says the company could face a genuine risk of bankruptcy if it cannot launch one of its starship vehicles at a rate of one every two weeks next year. musk said production issues are worse than they seemed just a few weeks ago. one of my favorite golfers, tiger woods admitted his days as a full-time golfer are over after suffering severe leg injuries in a car crash last february. woods said he could see himself playing occasional tournaments. global new

from new york city this morning, good morning. your equity market negative about 0.1 percent this tuesday morning. a day winning streak this equity market has been looking better than good. we are down about 0.1% on the s&p. your next up for this market, ppi, then cpi 24 hours after that. consumer price inflation tomorrow morning. tom: look at the bullard comment coming across. bullard talking up in inflation worry. where does powell go with that? jonathan: we know where bullard is at, it is the hike into early next year. i keep going back to the three handle for the first quarter of next year. that is some recovery in this labor market. tom: my summary of all the conversation we have is about wage growth and the pernicious nest of that through the system, balancing up against a lot of people that need a higher wage. anthony capuano is with us, the chief executive officer of marriott. you are leading the country with construction, one hunter 66,000 174 rooms right now. i assume that is globally. tell us about the optimism in the m

you stand on any street in new york city and look at the new auto burg wheels out there. $40,000 is an average new car now? the consumption, the pullback is there. jonathan: have you ever seen a rivian on the road. tom: no, i wouldn't know it if i did. they are not on the road, right? jonathan: they just started delivering a couple of months ago. what a story. lisa: i wonder how that is going to do in 2025. jonathan: we will see. we will catch up with the ceo of the largest ipo of the year so far a little bit later at 10: 10 eastern time. ed ludlow sitting down with the ceo of rivian. we will speak to the bnp paribas ceo in a moment. looking forward to speaking to jean-yves fillion. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. we will get the latest u.s. inflation figures a few minutes from now, expected to show that consumer prices have risen 5.9% in the last year. that would be the fastest pace since 1990. supply chain bottlenecks lead to high gas prices across the region. president biden and china's xi jinping will hold a virtual summit next week. no sp

from new york city, good morning to you all on radio, on tv. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " ♪ >> in this negative yielding world we are and, all roads still need to equities. >> real yields are at historically low levels, and those levels can persist. >> the way to beat higher rates or inflationary pressures is with record high profitability. >> liquidity is coming into the market still, and it is making its way around to a high variety of asset classes. >> ripping away stimulus and slimming on the brakes probably won't be good for anybody in the global economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom:

from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york city on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. kailey leinz in for tom keene. s&p advancing .4%. all-time highs of the close on friday. the biggest monthly gain going back to november 2020. we are up almost 7% last month alone. unreal. 1.5821 on 10. on two, through 50 basis points. crude $84 a barrel. it is all about one thing this week for the federal reserve. give us a rate guidance. joining us is andrew hallman horst -- andrew hollenhorst. you had a forecast for rate hikes from the fed to start next year in december. people thought you were hawkish. they are now accusing you of being a dove. andrew: that has been the evolution. when we came into the year with that forecast people asked did you put the long -- the wrong year behind your forecast. we are still in december 2022 even as we see the market start to move ahead. lisa: this is the ultimate win for a strategist. this means you are early and potentially late. what gave you conviction before and what gives you co

. ♪ jonathan: two hours away from the opening bell in new york city. eight day winning streak on the s&p 500. looking to grind out a ninth on the s&p, the longest daily winning streak of the year so far. equity futures up a single point, advancing 0.02% on the s&p. that is the equity story. here's the bond market picture. your 10 year yield comes in two or three basis points to about 1.4636%. on 30's, down about two basis points. that is just the nominal story. walk me through reals because real yields coming all the way down. lisa: take a look at 30 year real yields, now at -0.53%. that is a record for this. what makes this make sense to anybody, the idea that going out, you are getting a negative yield of 0.5% for 30 years based on where in place and expectations are right now? jonathan: do you know what mike collins of pgim said to me? if you go into a risk-free asset, you do not deserve a positive real yield. the world has changed. if you go into the risk-free asset, you do not deserve a positive real yield. that is the story in the bond market. sw

i am going to keep saying it, and new york city. this is bloomberg. rk city. this is bloomberg. >> what we are advocating for our capabilities that are going to be key to the backbone of the next century of american leadership. we are talking about not only bridges and roads, getting things prepared, but actually getting things connected so that we have more digital infrastructure that can actually evolve over time. jonathan: the chairman, president, and ceo of z mitts -- fc mets usa. 1.60% on tense. there's a divide on wall street over the next move. the market looking for the something in the middle of next year. morgan stanley can with q1 2023. td going with december 2023. others looking for the second half of 2022. tom: james bullard coming up, and ira jersey will join us in moments on the stunning td securities call. right now, david wilson on the stunning growth stocks. dave: another way to put it is how many more value stocks there are relative to growth. inc. about it. for the last several years, you can go back to the late to thousands and you see val

on radio, on television, from our head colder's on lexington avenue in new york city

from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. federal reserve chair jerome powell is doubling down on the central bank'new policy framework just he central bank' -- the central bank's new policy framework. that policymakers announced they will start slowing their $120 billion monthly asset purchases. speaker nancy pelosi is pushing the house towards a vote on president biden's economic agenda, but a few key issues are still unresolved, such as family leave, immigration, and rolling back limits to state and local tax deductions. a measure still doesn't have the full support of senate democrats. in new jersey, phil murphy has become the second democrat in more than four decades to win a term as governor. the narrow margin found democrats already reeling from a loss in virginia. murphy lead in polls by as much as 11%. he ended up winning by one percentage point. investors have turned their focus to an opec+ meeting on policy today. they are expected to stick to their planned gradual output hikes, despite calls to pump more oil. the

from new york city, very good morning. special coverage coming right up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> we think the financial markets will discover what normal looks like from a growth and inflation standpoint. >> fundamentals cannot be better it inflation is not disrupting that. >> a strong trajectory for growth over the next several years. >> inflation will be a 2022 story. >> the uncertainty band is wide. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. breaking news. the president to nominate chairman powell to a second term , to nominate governor brainard as fed vice chair. that news in the last few seconds. the president of the united states to nominate chair powell to a second term as the fed chair. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up .4%. the chairman getting a second term, at least he has been nominated. this goes to hearings. tom: the market likes

from new york city, beautiful morning. this is bloomberg. ritika: the house plans to vote today on president biden's $1.75 trillion economic package and a separate infrastructure bill. intense 11th hour negotiations, lingering differences were settled. nancy pelosi garnered support in -- promising she would make support for immigrants a top priority. japan is using many of the mortar patrol measures put in place -- the country will distract restrictions -- the country is hoping to -- and a vaccination campaign that has inoculated more than 70% of the population. the changes take effect monday. china's latest covid-19 outbreak continues to spread, the latest wave driven by the highly infectious delta variant that reaches 20 mainland provinces. it is the broadest outbreak since the virus first appeared in 2019. nearly 800 people have been diagnosed. the u.s. justice department is looking into whether credit suisse is complying with the 2014 guilty plea in which it paid $2.6 billion and admitted -- in a court filing the doj is asking the judge

york city. jim b uncle -- jim b anke -- jim bianco joins us now, resident and founder of bianco research. do you fade today or friday? guest: look, i don't know much about viruses and i am not a virologist, but i will say what is the biggest problem the economy has right now is the great resignation and the supply chain problem. this, with all of the restrictions we are about to get, is not going to help that situation. it is going to make it worse. that probably means some constraints are going to get worse. you are lucky you got you christmas tree when you did. it is likely to get harder in the coming weeks as well. that might mean more inflation. we got record demand for durable consumption, record demand for retail products, but yet we don't have those products to meet them. they are either stuck in the los angeles port or we are just not going back to work to make them. this is not going to help that situation, and it is not going to be resolved anytime soon. tom: you synthesize like nobody

lisa: from new york city to our audience around the world. 30 minutes until the start of trading. it is a different day. severely risk off in the face of new covid headlines. the s&p down 1.7%. the russell 2000 down more than 3% ahead of the open. i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ lisa: let's begin with the big issue. covid returning to the forefront. >> entering a bit of a risk off day. >> unwelcome news. >> could not have come in a worse time. >> the back of thanksgiving. >> it make sense for investors to take risk off the table. >>

from new york city, alongside lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro together with kailey leinz. tom keene back tomorrow morning. your equity market higher, up .4% on the s&p. the curve a bit steeper this morning. tends up three in the front end up about one basis point. the 10 year .50 873. euro-dollar positive more than .1%. we love to check in with where guesstimates are ahead of friday. 450 is your median estimate. the highest is 750,000, the lowest -- morgan stanley saying we expect the decline in the delta variant and the reopening of stores and the full expiration of unemployment insurance benefits to drive labor force participation gains this month. they are looking for 460,000. lisa: i wonder what the market reaction will be to a big miss? will it be rates lower or rates higher because it means the market is tighter than people have expected given how much some of the employment cost have been going up. jonathan: did you think we would still be here talking about ranges of 450,000 on payrolls day? lisa: it is not what people were indicating. they thought there would be s