microsoft from the tech side of things and then walmart. take us through why those three are your top picks >> so exxon oblviously related, we believe there's plenty ofup side in today's move by the administration to release reserves it's a temporary fix we're not producing enough oil and as a result, there's going to be price increases. it's a global commodity, but the opec plus group has no real impetus to increase their production as long as they're not losing share and right now, they're not. exxon mobil is incredibly cheap, a 5.8% dividend yield. microsoft is just a great story, executing on all cylinders we love the azure business we think they're taking share from amazon web services when we think about corporate america, if you're thinking about outsourcing to the cloud, microsoft is a trusted business partner. amazon is a potential competitor we can see their growth quarter by quarter they're gaining share. and ultimately walmart, which is executing incredibly well here mark talked about the supply chain dynamics clearly the big bo

you know, i don't see why you would choose zoom over microsoft. >> microsoft teams a lot of us use it that's a great point microsoft currently trading just down fractionally on the day gina and delano, thank you. >>> seema, thank you very much. >>> up next, boston market calls thanksgiving its super bowl. the company is here to talk food inflation and holiday demand >> announcer: and now, the latest from trading nation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. ♪♪ in boxing or any other business, one day, you're gonna take a hit you didn't see coming. do you stay down? or do you get up? [announcer] and this fight is a long way from over, leonard is coming back. ♪♪ ♪♪ as i observe investors balance risk and reward, i see one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. your strategic advantage. >>> welcome back, everybody. in case you hadn't noticed, food prices are going up just in time for thanksgiving wheat prices up 13% over the past month highest level in about nine years. that was hit earlier today there you see corn and oats also up sharply that explains why the av

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amd, microsoft, very strange flight to safety, call it flight to apple apple is getting huge volume and up, the only big tech stock trading on the upside. also we've seen heavy volume in technology, all of the big etfs, the heaviest traded etfs are tech names the tech spyder, vanguard, the qqqs is tech stocks, the russell 2000 small cap names have trouble if interest rates move to the upside. we have a problem, tyler traders were worried omicron would hurt investor confidence, hurt the supply chain and hurt margins. now powell has come along and said wait a minute, we're going to get more hawkish, not less hawkish on the omicron concerns and that was something nobody was quite prepared for so everybody's trying to figure out what's the right playbook here and that's why you get heavy follow for example in technology stocks where nobody's quite sure how to play that right now tyler? >> thank you, bob pisani >>> next our guest says the fed will likely start hiking rates september and move six times before the end of 2023 let's bring in bruce kazmin, head of global economic research and ch

microsoft surface devices, orchestrated by cdw. they adapt to each user and deliver multi-layered security, so your workforce gets seamless experiences wherever they roam. for devices that fit your unique workforce, trust microsoft surface and it orchestration by cdw. people who get it. i'll shoot you an estimate as soon as i get back to the office. hey, i can help you do that right now. high thryv! thryv? yep. i'm the all-in-one management software built for small business. high thryv! help me with scheduling? sure thing. up top. high thryv! payments? high thryv! promotions? high thryv! email marketing? almost there, hold on. wait for it. high thryv! manage my customer list? can do. will do. high thryv! post on social media? hash-tag high thryv my friend! get a free demo at thryv.com. >>> welcome back i'm rahel solomon. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. the justice department is charging two iranians with trying to create confusion by intimidating u.s. voters ahead of last year's presidential election the men are accused

the future cash flow is worth less, sforz, apple, microsoft, and nvidia all weaker. >> it might explain some of the selloffwe are seeing specifically in the nasdaq right now, bob >> now to the bond market overall, custom is grappling with the inflation number and a weak 30-ier bond auction rick santelli is tracking the action from the cme group. rick >> you talk about a tail wagging the dog, 5.5 basis point tail on a 30-year bond auction what does that mean, the auction went off at 1.94%. the when issued market was trading 1788 percent, 5.5 bassis points normally a tail at 1.5 is bad. 30 year bond auction was definitely not good. it reached a height of 196 big u-turn even at 191 it is up 11. why the u-turn you can see it in the two year note as well, right now at 48 basis points, up half a dozen. they were as high as 50. i will tell you why. stocks stocks buying treasury, that channel, is in a layup when stocks become a bit nervous or investors a bit nervous holding stocks that is why we see the u-turn. and remember, resteepening of the yield curve as you see, 30s minus twos it skyrocke

i expect that to continue to work microsoft is in a land of its own, showing us 45% margins. expect to see margin pressure. google has given 1500 basis points of margin expansion since second quarter, 32% last quarter. when you talk about pricing power, what we're really talking about in this environment is ability to maintain margins. the market will be focused where we are seeing market degradation. >> let's back up for a second, talk about where you think inflation is going because you have been in the camp saying janet yellen said 3% this summer, you were saying more like 6 where do you think we'll be middle of next year? >> right i don't enjoy being right on this forecast. i was certainly not in august when i called for 6% cpi this year, and 5% pc this year, see if we get that later in the month. 5% cpi all the drivers are still in place. we still see shutdowns and disruptions at the manufacturing level, in some part due to low vaccination rates at some of the manufacturing companies like vietnam and indonesia. still see capacity constraints in terms of shipping with the

that's not a broad rally all the power is in the tech stocks apple, microsoft, salesforce, it's cisco, it's intel but all of the consumer names, merck, disney, verizon, for example, r all a lot weaker. this is not a unilateral advance that we are seeing as for the rest of the market semiconductors are the strength in the technology sector nvidia is complete round trip. 246 thursday, 214 friday, back to 330 a round trip for a lot of the semiconductors energy is up, there are concerns about travel-related movements as we deal request new variant all of these are nice ounces but it is not close to where they were at the close on thursday. no exactly a round trip for energy finally, melissa mentioned some travel and entertainment stocks. the cruise lines and the airlines are notably underperforming other parts of travel and entertainment the hotels are doing a lot better and the companies that provide live entertainment are outperforming. what this tells you is people are not sure about going on long trips but are still interested in going to hotels even if it is just on a local level. ba

netflix, microsoft, home depot, lowe's, among those companies making record highs in trading today. check them out we'll be right back. >>> welcome back vir biotechnology and glaxo smith klein announcing today they will sell $1 billion worth of their covid-19 antibody drug to the u.s. government vir stock is down nearly 40% in two months as merck and pfizer get ready to come out with their own anti-viral drugs to fight covid-19 so joining us now is george, the ceo of vir biotechnology along with our own meg tirrell meg, over to you. >> dom, thank. george, it is nice to see you. thank you for joining us today on news this billion dollars worth of contracts with the u.s. government dom mentioned the stock move over the last two months i think what a lot of investors are wondering about the antibody drugs now is as the anti-viral pills are working their way through the fda what role do your drugs play, the antibody drugs, when we have easier to take pills for covid >> that's a great question i think the important thing to remember is we had good data last week on an intramusk collar ap

these stocks, microsoft, apple, nvidia, some of the big semiconductor names have been on fire along with microsoft in the last two weeks again, none of this would be happening if it market believes that aggressive rate hikes or unexpected rate hikes were coming soon. same thing with the banks. kbe another high today a new high of course we are seeing good news there, the banks are still making money on the interest rate carry kbe also hitting a new high today. this comment, expected to be transsorry, from the fed, this is what corporate america is essentially saying the message from the earnings picture for corporate america so far is, yes, inflation is a little stickier than we had thought. but with the exception of labor costs that might be more permanent, most of corporate america is saying they are getting their hands around the supply chain issues. they expect commodity costs to be lower in the following quarters of course that would be good news for the overall revenue picture. obviously more revenues will occur because demand will be much higher at that point. >> bob pisani thank

you have microsoft, mastercard and nvidia, but what do you mean in terms of the run we could see for diamond back and eog >> one of the transition problems in this next cycle is the fact that we've so cut back on the amount of oil and gas development sending we're doing that we're just going to need to price demand out meaning we're going to have to see oil over $100 a barrel before we can begin to touch the imbalances on the supply side. so that's going to lead a company like eog and diamond back, i mean, they're going to throw off 30% or more of their market cap in free cash over this next five years it's just so powerful. when you have a business that has that type of free cash generation, generally, you see it as share buybacks, dividends, and you have a great support for the stock throughout the entire phase. and so i think you're going to see a whole different view of these kinds of energy producers that have low cost space and high cash flow and it will be another example, like ford, of an old cyclical business that gets upgrades, if you want, into a much better valuation prof

alphabet, and microsoft. and the semiconductor etf is hitting a new high this week what is hit? travel stocks. again down witness to three percent today. peak travel optimism was a clear date november 8th the day the u.s. okayed foreign visitors to come in. since then, straight down. since november 8th same with oil. oil is a proxy for global travel topped out at $84 two week ago now it is $74. most of the big oil names are down about 10% since then. an interesting week, kelly become to you. >> key if it helps with the gas prices in next week's big travel week bob, thanks. >>> let's go to rick santelli and check on bonds. >> my phone was going off like a pin ball machine at 2:00 in the morning about austria and bavaria cancelling christmas festivities. closer to our time zone, germany saying an entire country lockdown wasn't going to happen. and all of this putting huge volatility in the marketplace in a sort of flight to safety trade. look the 24-hour chart of tens you could clearly see when the headlines started to hit how yields drop. right now at 1.53. down six on the day, d

in is owning the names that sort of dominate the cloud so service now, crm and then cyber security microsoft's in that group. we think that's where the marginal spend will go. >> all right we'll leave it there before it turns into a brawl ari, nancy, thank you both today why for more head to the website or follow along on twitter. >>> american airlines plan to entice workers to stick around for the holiday could cost them more than merry wishes. >> now the latest from trading nation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >>> american airlines is promising to pay up for flight attendants willing to work the holiday season dom chu takes a look at this story. >> could be pretty big for the overall payout why we have heard the stories of the flight cancelations, the massive number over multiple airlines in the last several months. they have let a drove of travelers stranded american airlines is looking to head off the issues by devoting more money to make sure that employees show up for work not just for the normal pay for sometimes a significant bump in those peak holiday travel periods. in an int

can they keep the momentum watch their cloud business they partnered with microsoft and those were up 160% last quarter. those are the two you want to watch. >> stephanie link, the queen of content per unit of time i am telling you. >>> now to the action-packed day down in washington in less than an hour, president biden will sign the trillion dollars infrastructure bill and this evening he has a telephone conference with the president of china. now there are concern about losses of the democratic party heading into the mid telivy cantrall joins us. what is more important,the infrastructure bill or the talk tonight. according to democrats, infrastructure, kelly. if you look at how this is bipartisan infrastructure framework or the bif polls around the electorate it polls pretty well as democrats want to get to points on the board, pivot to then their build back better agenda, which actually also polls very well and then pivot to the messaging about the benefit. i think this is something that has been lost in this process, this debate about the price tag that many of these benefits tha