>> my name is tom. >> tom klain was on the phone to 9-1-1. something about his wife, she was not breathing. >> how long has she been down? >> i don't. no i don't know. i just got. home >> buckley in home, sucked down a pocket of long dark road, it would never be home again. >> coming up, what had happened to kelly? police discovered disturbing scene inside the family home. >> i said where is your? wife >> and he pointed through the kitchen. area and that's when i walked around, boom, boom, okay. >> when dateline continues. >> when dateline continues >> when dateline continues there can be some not-so-pretty stuff going on, on the inside. it's true, if you have diabetes, you know high blood sugar is the root of the problem. but that excess sugar can cause the blood vessels to be seriously damaged. and when that happens, this could happen, vision loss or even blindness. that's right, diabetic retinopathy is a leading cause of blindness for adults in the u.s. but even though you can't see it, there is something you can do about it. remember this

tom: it will be in the conference calls. no one will pay attention to revenue, it may be you get a nominal gdp surprise, but i will take the point that they will be in selected sectors, some margin mysteries. jonathan: revenue falls to the bottom line. lisa: how much has been priced in? we've seen pockets of real selloff among a number of big tech players. you wonder if that is more with bed, bath & beyond. jonathan: could you go through the schedule for d.c.? lisa: basically a lot of phone calls, people having discussions. i wonder what the tenor of those discussions is, is it, i will give you this or that, or, this is potentially catastrophic for our party? jonathan: a lot of guys come off. down one third on the s&p 500, negative one third of 1%. on the nasdaq, down 2/10 of 1%. euro-dollar 1.8254. in crude, -9/10 of 1%, 74.37 on wti. >> we get data on spending from early august and the expectation is of a decline on the heels of last fiscal stimulus. the idea of the runoff of the fiscal cli

tom: thank god. jonathan: wednesday won't be a live meeting for interest rate hikes on the federal reserve that thursday could be for bank of england. sterling, 137 right now. 100 3420 seven is where we were at the back end of september, tom. the fear is they might be hiking into weakness. this is where they play the music. is this it? do i interrupt tom again? did you do this? kill the music. 137 22. i know who's in charge here. sterling, just a bit weaker. tk is the meeting, a live one, chief bank economist says it is. jonathan: taylor wants to know what she parachuted into. [laughter] jonathan: i will wrap it up. that's the sterling. tom: thank you. jonathan: good morning, taylor. taylor: it's my pleasure to be here and according to dan, it may not be a 600 type down with a world series, but microsoft is darn close. it's not often you see a company this size posting these gains, but it's an opposite story for alphabet. earnings yesterday had signs of slowing in the cloud market with the fourth qua

tom: it is not about us. jonathan: you know it's not. [laughter] tom, clearly. the curve is flatter, let's get to the stock movement. let's say good morning. >> good morning. if you're looking to more evidence as to the potential for some of these inflationary pressures, alcoa is actually reinstating its dividend for the first time since 2016 after the spinoff. it is an interesting read. the commentary out of the company is that they see the pricing power sticking around for a little bit longer. the company is reporting great earnings. $3.1 billion in revenue. 201 and change on the etf. the ceo seems to think that this will stick around for a little longer. core shares not only up before the stocks, it has been on a phenomenal run. at least among some of the large-cap companies. keep an eye on the bitcoin crypto space. the folks at bloomberg intelligence have been saying for a while that bitcoin futures etf is going to happen in october. we have new reporting based on people familiar with the situation saying that the sec could sign off on this in a matter of da

tom: there is. jonathan: there we go. tom: thank you so much. on radio, the chart from the upper left to the lower right, as mr. gartman would say. right now, jim o'sullivan with us, chief u.s. macro strategist at td securities. i want to piggyback on what we heard from julia coronado earlier this morning with macropolicy perspectives. she thinks the auto industry is so messed up that she is the really partitioning american gdp for what we get, and adjusting for a beleaguered auto business. are you doing the same? jim: there's no question that auto is an extreme case. you could talk about the growth side, you could talk about the inflation side, but particularly on the inflation side, so much of the net pickup in the inflation has come from vehicles, particularly used vehicles. that is also a semiconductor issue. no question that has been a part of it. we saw in the industrial production report this week, there were other factors in there, too. tom: are you able now to get beyond into q1, q2 next year with a tone of optimism on gdp, or is it a v

tom: these are really competent people. i would note the first mathy paragraph in it is towards social security. for 12 million, it is their sole support. that is really a third rail number for a lot of republicans and a lot of democrats. jonathan: there's going to be some real tension here, and that is not going away. that tension does not exist in financial markets beyond the t-bill curve, and that is the problem for this administration that would like people to take this a lot more seriously. our kids have been conditioned by experience not to -- markets have been conditioned by experience not to. lisa: janet yellen saying this could cause a recession did absolutely nothing to markets. jonathan: secretary yellen's tone has been pretty consistent over the past couple of months. lisa: but there are people, as you said, that have been conditioned to know that after all of their options have been exhausted, they do the right thing. let's wait. tom: i think it is a culture in europe. the first conversation i ever had with chr

jonathan: that's why we are in different rooms, tom. [laughter] thanks, tom. great working with you, buddy. coming up on "the open," joanne feeney. 90 minutes away. that was the trade. will you work with tom? only if i am solo an hour after. i need 60 minutes of therapy after doing three hours with tom. lisa: and tom, what was your response? tom: my response is we need a beverage. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. house speaker nancy pelosi has set a revised target date of october 31 two past the stalled the three -- to pass the stalled $350 billion interceptor bill. pelosi wants to get progressives and moderates to agree on the size of president biden's larger spending package before voting on infrastructure. the u.s. is moving closer to its first-ever default. neither party in washington has signaled it is ready to back down from a partisan showdown on the federal debt limit. senate democratic leader chuck schumer plans another vote as early as today on a plan to suspend the debt ceiling u

tom, what is in store in washington? tom: damage control at the imf. they have been doing this for decades. it is not going to jump the shark. it is a different meeting. yesterday, all eyes were on the managing director and how she is going to come out of the uproar that she has had at the world bank and her 90-day tenure there a number of years ago. i will say, jon, the jury is out. jonathan: looking forward to the coverage. earnings now is greg boutle, bnp paribas head of equity and derivatives strategy. apple down 10% from september highs. let's talk about banks, also almost 10% from september 22. what you tell clients about how to manage exposure? greg: thanks. banks will be one of the few sectors that will be more expensive rather than less expensive food we have seen strong growth. the banks have gotten a bit more expensive. we are a bit more cautious coming into these numbers. concerned about sustained relatively growth. lisa: what is the most important thing for you to see to get more bullish on the banks?is it more yield growth, corporate long

tom: it's not there. jonathan: jeff currie really started things off over at goldman when he said this was the revenge of old commodities, a space that didn't get much investment at all. those dollars don't want to go in that direction anymore. lisa: credit investors are asking for more fiscal prudence. you are seeing investors demand it in a different way, especially after getting burned in the aftermath of 2014, 2011. i think that is also a distinct feature, with extra cash flow going to pay down debt. jonathan: so those are looking better. lisa: absolutely, they do. jonathan: i heard it, just a limbs of positivity. -- a glimpse of positivity. your equity markets positive 0.1 percent. yields are in about a basis point or two to 1.5961%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. in north korea, kim jong-un showed off a varied arsenal of missiles designed to frustrate u.s. defense systems. it was a rare display that appeared to be the la

jonathan: it is nicknames, tom. tom: blues is chelsea, right? there is a guy who dresses head to towing chelsea, when they play. -- head to toe in chelsea, when they play. jonathan: i think i met him. did you meet him going to the gym? i've met him before. thank you. we should remember these people with names, tom. lisa, the hiking in emerging markets has been real. and it has been big. let's be clear about that. we are talking about 100 basis points in brazil. 125 in chile. lisa: the fact that you have not seen strength coming into their local currencies as a result is a warning signal to some people. the idea you have seen yields continue to climb up, people are not necessarily pouring their money into developing markets that are trying to reward them with higher yields. that is a warning sign. jonathan: i won't get involved in the em-sterling debate. that currency has weakened this morning. the dollar is stronger. the government teat up a rate move before the year's end. november, this is happening. that currency is not stronger off the back

tom: exactly. lisa: there is such a bigger dynamic, and you have talked about this so much, the idea of automation. don't understand some of the shifts and the transformations of the labor market. how do you gain this out -- how do you game this out? tom: many ways to go with that good observation, but the bottom line here is everybody that i respect is saying you've got to look at the labor dynamic in europe, and frankly over here as well, and in the corporate earnings announcements, i just don't see the labor inflation entrenched. 80 parts of it. lisa: -- maybe parts of it. lisa: i am wondering if the zeitgeist is shifting among the population seeing the inflationary pushes. if all of a suddenly tolerance was very dovish, very dovish ecb policy as people see what they are paying at the grocery store or for the car, that is a shift we have to see christine lagarde push against perhaps to keep with the same kind of rhetoric we have heard from her. tom: we go down in flames, folks. we tried to stay

tom: including lloyd austin. the secretary of defense austin and so many others and so many different ethnicities and race, it began with him -- is it safe to say? bobby: that is very safe to say. his legacy in the military is enormous, but for that one blip with the war in iraq, unfortunately a big blip will always be in asterisk going forward, but i hope we don't forget that there was a time when he represented the best of this country. tom: bobby ghosh has been living in london. you are into new york? bobby: this is day one. glad to be home. tom: we are hugely advantaged to have this on this -- to have you on this important day. we are thrilled he is at bloomberg opinion. something i looked back as bobby mentioned, it was there but it wasn't. it was clumsy. there was hillary clinton and others. this is ancient history. but it was clumsy. lisa: this person exemplifies the american dream. this idea that he really got in and worked incredibly hard and went to community college and ended at the top echelons of gen

sorry, tom. jonathan: kerry go. feeling good, tom? tom: she was at a pay phone i saw this weekend. $1232 for anne-marie to sit behind the yankees dugout. jonathan: that is how much it costs? >> are you paying for that? jonathan: let's catch up later. stay close. annmarie, down in d.c. the president tries to bridge the gap between moderates and progressives in his own party. tom: it is sort of chaos. i'm going to go back to focusing on the infrastructure bill. i don't have any great knowledge on that other than is it dead? jonathan: we have got a new deadline. month's end. it's got and maybe next to it. lisa: even janet yellen said maybe there are couple of days with wiggle room. maybe it is october 28. we did learn something. we learned the progressives have conceded. three point 5 trillion is not going to be 3.5 trillion. jonathan: something between 1.5 and 3.5. your equity market's down 16 on the s&p. tom: vix 23. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ the comfortable way to work out. -that looks fun actually. -it looks fun? it looks

tom: good morning.

tom: you are poetic. with that, we migrate to david wilson with some really good observations on the equity market. let a set of differing opinions. >> absolutely, but not all that different. tom: this is a story about narrowness. >> you avoid the worst performing group and you tend to do better. it will have a list among energy sectors, but what happened in the third quarter is that there was so little distinction between the best and the worst performers that they did not really matter. the gap of less than seven percentage points, the best performer out of the 11 -- that was the smallest differential. tom: you stagger back and say, what has happened here before? >> we have not really been here before. the smallest was back in 1889. it is a matter of, do we get more overtime? this is how many managers justify their existence, avoiding or if you do not have that much of a gap in performance, not a lot of opportunity to do better than the index. lisa: this flies in the face of discretion. can you talk abo

>> yes and no, tom. olivier made headlines calling for a 4% inflation target because the 2% inflation target that bernanke had pushed did not take into account the lower bound of not having effect. tom: we committed to the experiment that he talked about. >> no. congress is not set, inflation is up, let's grab that and say, now that we are here, let's raise the target. myself, the peterson institute, we have been saying three plus. now is the time. tom: do we need a gene change right now to rephrase our generational belief in 2% inflation and say, hey, this is the new normal? >> i personally think yes. it is not a regime change, is a resetting of the target. one of the problems we did not proceed when we put in place the targets was that we assumed that it was in the books we wrote. we assumed that we would reset the target as economic targets and circumstances change in -- change. once you set it, you are scared to move it. i'm glad we're talking about this right now. we should be opportunistically rela

tom: it would be. we are getting ready for the weekend and into the real earnings season coming up after the banks. matt mainly's chief markets -- matt maley's chief market strategist and joins us now. i original -- i religiously use what are kleinman moving averages. there is no time on a friday to go into the math. do you use the 50 and the 200 day moving average and you believe in the death or the birth cross? matt: i do watch those moving averages very closely. the death cross and the golden cross, those are a little bit different because they work for some assets and not so well for others so i tend to look back in the past. the 50 day moving average, there is no question that until september that was rocksolid support all year long and bounced off many times. then we finally broke through in september. the old saying is old support becomes new resistance and in the last couple of days we have been bumping up against that. we can finally break above that and give technicians some relief. tom: on a

tom: the vix under 15. there's a reaffirmation today that is very different than five days ago, 10 days ago. more earnings coming in. tina martin adams and the others we have talked to have said, you know what? the sum total of the earnings and revenues up. jonathan: the big tech players after the bell. microsoft, google. then onto apple. apple was in the news because of the supply chain story, a struggle to meet demand. we thought that would really define this quarter. so far, it hasn't. margins have held up. that has been the story of the year so far. tom: i think the powerpoint, buried in it, you see the reality of ge aviation. their fleet is down 18%. that is their calculation. they are parked on the ground. but away from that is the idea of pretty good margins, even with flat revenues. is that tech? no, but it is good. jonathan: you see what you get here? commentary on the numbers, and column and terry on the -- and commentary on the powerpoint of the earnings release. [laughter] you're the only man i

tom: i've got to go below 59th street? jonathan: have you ever been to brooklyn? tom: no. jonathan: i have. tom: olive oil ice cream? my mother's favorite was pistachio. jonathan: make it happen. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. the u.k. and new zealand have agreed to a trade deal which includes improved business travel arraignments and reduced tariffs on clothing, buses, ships, and bulldozers. government research last year estimated such a deal would have no long-term impact on the british economy. former president donald trump has announced a deal that would enable him to regain his social media presence after he was kicked off both twitter and facebook. a press release says trump plans to start a social media company called truth social. if all goes according to plan, it would be up and running ahead of 2022 midterm elections. china's evergrande group scrapped plans to offload a stake in its property management arm, and real estate sales plunged about 90% during peak home buying season. that is worsen

jonathan: is that what they said, tom? tom: save us with the data check. jonathan: we snap back quickly, up .4%. retail sales, 27 minutes away. tom: exceptionally important research by the gentleman from dartmouth. david blanchflower joins us now. we are thrilled he could join us. i will digress. i don't john wants to -- jon wants to jump in. they got it right and nailed it on the minimum wage. now we have big tap bidding up labor to $17 $18 an hour across america did what is the effect of big tech on minimum wage? david: living in new hampshire, my kids used to go and work at the local cinema, and they would work for 10 bucks an hour. the northern part of the united states, the minimum wage was fine but we are seeing the labor market adjusting to a shop and firms having to pay their the question you are thinking about is, does that continue in the future? just because of he wants up rise in wages doesn't mean it is going forward. at 3% bonus announced for staff but that lives prices next year and does nothing next year. we are emerging from a bottleneck.

tom: you nailed it. jonathan: this is why we have tom on the show. it is so relatable for so many people. [laughter] tom: there we are. let's get to mario parker in washington, usually from the lawn of the white house, but today from our studios in new york, driving our political coverage in washington. december 3, there's going to be a november 3, and and there's a day by day tick. what do you presume will be the body language? mario: we heard a lot of partisan sniping over the last couple of weeks, if past is prologue at all. last night, senator schumer, in passing the bill to keep the debt ceiling in place, he kind of rattled some feathers across the aisle, so not sure if republicans are going to be as cooperative going forward. tom: but then there's republicans versus republicans. we don't need to get into the weeds right now, but i don't understand how republicans coalesce around their leader on november 3 or november 13. mario: you saw some of that last night with senator ted cruz releasing a bitter statement toward mcconnell, former president

tom: neither do i. [laughter] ♪ ♪ >> the market seems to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or risk in the equity market. >> for the economy it is important but for the market it is about earnings. >> there is plenty of demand across the board. that issue is can that demand be fulfilled? announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and

tom? tom: thank you. coming up, how the world's leading first is career women are failing them in several ways. that is next. this is bloomberg bloomberg tom: welcome back. we are 43 minutees into the european trading day. european stoxx 600 gaining .3%. that stock gaining more than 4%. you had the stellar earnings pitch we got from u.b.s. we'll be speaking to the c.e.o. about that. this was front and center for us yesterday. president erdogan threatening to kick out 10 ambassadors. you see the turkish lira gaining 1% vs. the u.s. dollar. let's switch focus to the bloomberg ibc taking and for the millions of working women in the world's leading cities, daily life is often shaped by what they cannot do and how they are excluded. how 15 global cities rank shows each failing in several ways. joining us is rebecca. thank you for joining us. what does the index do and what were the main takeaways. >> i'll take you back to the original thinking about this index. those of us in london will be very familiar with

sam: good morning, tom. basically, what i look at is knowing that the s&p 500 is likely to close above the september 2 all-time high fairly soon. the question is going back to world war ii, looking at the prior 60 pullbacks or declines of 5% to 10%, how much further did it go beyond that recovery level before stumbling into another decline of 5% or more? the answer was the market has risen an average of eight point 4%, a median of 5.4%, and it has taken about 98 days before we on average slip into a new decline. when you look also to how well the market has done from the low point of october to the end of december, average gain is more than 7%, so basically, there really is a santa claus. jonathan: what is it about seasonals? when all of us first got into this business and heard about all of this, it sundered like hocus-pocus. what is it about all of this? sam: a lot of it has to do with capital inflows, the old sell in may strategy, basically implying that most of the money is put to work early in the year,

tom: essentially flat. we are downplaying the record high to extraordinary's of rise and we have the guests to talk to right now. jonathan: contrast the equity move what we see in the rates market. tom: to our audience, the rows are talking about the five year yield in the belly of the curve as they say. i don't think the five-year is in contrast to equities. it signals recovery and signals better earnings. jonathan: they say we add some weight to the belly. jonathan: this was the rotation of earnings season for me. have you seen anything like this? kayley: supply chain issues are coming from social media companies who you would think would be more immune than other sectors out there but snapchat says that people are not just spending money on advertising stuff any company that relies on digital advertising or their revenue is going to feel the effect on that i would note it's not just a supply chain issue. jonathan: 1/5 of their market cap. businesses cannot support incremental demand, that's a phenomenal

yes, tom? jack: i am watching on the waterfront tom: tom: -- i am watching on the waterfront tonight. it is a movie. jonathan: i wasn't around then if you watched it as a kid. tom: i watched it 42 times. a lovely blonde showed up early in the movie. jonathan: speaker pelosi said that she should do a better job selling this package in d.c., her words. i think you should do a better job to be frank. is that the problem? the reporters, the media? tom: that is a good question. what i would suggest, and the rest of them on 24/7, i hear almost a silence on the linkage of these two bills. it has sort of drifted away. jonathan: it has drifted into a new year, except they have to get it done. lisa: it is not fair for the journalists to be an advocate, that is not our job. number two, what are you selling when the democrats cannot get on the same page as to what they are trying to spend on question mark the details have not been worked out. we are discussing the headline number. this doesn't even begin t

tom: very nice. jonathan: that is really important to draw a distinction between what is happening here. we are kicking the can in washington, d.c. a bit of verbal intervention. right now, i don't see any resolutions. so sentiments better, yes, but there's a lot still to address. tom: we've had the correction, which was a non-correction, down whatever number you want to use, 6%, 7%, 8%. the back story is there is still a wall of money looking for a warm spot. jonathan: do we need things to get better or stop getting worse? the shipping bottleneck problems are officially going mainstream. as usual, that probably means the worst is behind, even if it means it will take some time to resolve. tom: tea leaves for the morning, liz ann sonders does it with her team and a great set of charts. finally, shanghai to l.a. cargo rose over -- cargo rose over ever so slightly. lisa: can we stop worrying about stagflation now? that is what this comes down to since that was the prevalent concern over the past few wee

tom: but when tom asks -- lisa: but when tom asks are we overanalyzing, people are viewing it as noise. what are they actually going to say? increasingly, i here ignore everyone but for the big three at the top. that has changed a little bit too to some of the political pressures. jonathan: that is the issue. who are the three of the year for this -- for the next several months. tom: with the data, if you get the bernstein 4% gdp, the vast majority of the people we are talking to our end modeling that in. jonathan: direction of travel matters in the model of inflation here. you say nominee people are pricing that in. that is consensus for next year when you look at the economic outlook. so most people look at that. tom: i've got to take some bloomberg terminal lessons. jonathan: yes, of course. ok. i love you. you know you know. some of my brand-new subscribers don't know. we will talk about it in the brakes. it is ok. i think the world of you. tom: i took my magnesium and i just learned i need 420 milligrams a day because for older people, it helps in abusive call. at that why they ga

tom keene looking for some attention. you can have it in a moment. tom: i have to go home. jonathan: all-time high for the equity market around the corner. tom: what impresses me today as we have eight reasons to go down and we didn't. i got the booster shot. it didn't hurt, you were there, it was great. let's go. get your booster shot, get vaccinated. there is the headline. new york city required covid vaccinations for all public employees. dow jones, there you go. let's move on. lisa: i'm very charged. jonathan: help me out. lisa: not only are we nearing all-time highs, we see 10 year yields continuing declines of the highest level since may of this year. the idea of higher inflation, a higher yield isn't scaring the equity bowls. it actually shows faster sales offset by lower margins but still optimism. >> let's get to the price action . equity market up 29. bond yields unchanged. in the fx market, we can talk a little bit about the exit of the blunders bank. -- of the bundesbank. 82.24 for crude. lisa: which fed speakers are going to speak. this follows yesterday's rash

tom: that was very quick. [laughter] expand on that briefly. >> fast-growing and stable earnings sector. tom: hi yields don't worry you? >> they do, but they need to be a lot higher to be a lot more worried. francine: next time you come on, we will do a full 20 minutes on technology stocks. coming up, soaring energy prices take center stage as eu leaders gather in brussels for a two day summit. that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. 22 minutes into the european trading day. losses across the stoxx 600 of around 0.3%. reflected in the individual indexes from the ftse 100 down to the ibex. the questions concern inflation inputs, articulated by the likes of the unilever ceo, putting earnings front and center to that point. pulling to the upside to some extent. broadly, the earnings have come in relatively positively, francine. francine: there is quite a lot going on. it is not like you wake up on a thursday and you say, i really need to watch inflation expectations. there are these

tom: no, please. [laughter] the only time cricket ever worked on "bloomberg surveillance" was i got a massive result, i hope lamp announcing it correctly, from perth. let's do the data check right now. we have a good guest on what to do with the portfolio. futures up 17. the vix, 15. it is a bull market. jonathan: all-time highs in this equity market, advancing 0.4%. yields in a basis point on tens. a snooze in the fx market. kit juckes calling it a snooze. in the commodity market, $84 handle on wti. tom: vernice capital is in the trenches of what do i do now. they spend a lot of time talking to high net worth people about what to do in wealth management and how to participate scared stiff. the director of scared stiff joins us right now, there director of portfolio strategy. how scared stiff are people in this great bull market? >> i think they are a bit more concerned with what they are seeing in the economy. when it comes to an investment standpoint, you still have a lot of people looking at the eq

tom: you put your finger on it. a lot of these old rust belt industries employ hundreds of thousands of people. one steel factory can employ housings of people in a town that you have never heard from and multiply that across multiple regions. you have conflicting messages from china. at the beginning of the year, they were urging industry to cut down. that is positive for the longer trajectory but now, they are having to walk that back to ensure the industry is still juicing. it is bad for the climate but they need the jobs. francine: let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. >> president biden signed a stopgap spending legislation to avoid a government shutdown for at least another nine weeks. however, nancy pelosi -- bipartisan infrastructure legislation. they will reconvene friday morning. china's central government has ordered energy companies to secure supplies for the winter at all costs. bloomberg sources say the order came directly from the vice president who supervises the energy sector and indu

when have we ever called you gloomy, tom? tom: i'm not gloomy. jonathan: i don't think lisa is living this morning either. lisa: honestly, i am looking at this headcount and thinking we always see the cycles, when the economy is good and banking is good. then we see the contractions down. jonathan: by definition, that is the cycle, isn't it? [laughter] lisa: whatever. moving on jonathan: your equity market -- moving on. jonathan: your equity market up 0.2% on the s&p 500. tom: i think jp morgan should be cautious. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. cpi in america, one hour in four minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks you

have you been reading it tom/ -- have you been reading it, tom? tom: i have been. they misspelled "bezos." they spelled "musk" correctly. [laughs] laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright here on capitol hill, democrats have unveiled two new taxes they hope will pay for president biden's social spending package. one will target billionaire assets over $100 million a year for three years in a row. the other is a tax for corporations that would require the companies that report more than $1 billion in profits to pay at least a 15% tax rate, even if they qualify for a lot of tax breaks. china planned efforts to boost the taiwan's qualifications in the united nations organizations. beijing says the self-ruled island has no right to join the u.s. at half century over it was kicked out. secretary abe lincoln has called for a -- secretary blinken has called for support. and uber will be able to offer services with tesla vehicles rented from hertz, starting next week. hertz will provide the vehicles for the ride-hailing giant by 2023. global news, 24 hours a day,

tom: there you go. [laughter] lisa: if you look at facebook for example, the shares are up dramatically on the year. amazon not so much. apple only up 5%. but if you take a look, once your starting point? we had such a huge rally earlier in the year. tom: that is classic. classic abramowitz. we have got to go with that. [laughter] the pendulum of are they. jonathan: zuckerberg should appear before congress. that whistleblower down in d.c. today. that one has got legs. that story is not over for sure. tom keene, a lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro this morning. yields higher this morning and crude rallying up 1.28%. heard on radio, seen on tv for our audience worldwide this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> above all else we must defend, to the hilt, our economic interests. and that means taking all steps necessary to protect ourselves against the waves of damage lifted over the years through unfair competition. jonathan: u.s. trade representative from new york city. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonat

jonathan: tom will come in. helen you want to do that for, tom? tom: from here to calais. jonathan: the primacy of the u.k., boris johnson, addressing the conservative party conference. architecture would not of ignored the impact of finances. tom: what is the body language? jonathan: they are with him. it is the conservative party conference. tom: if you're in the republican convention, you have six or 7 -- jonathan: i was joking. i think they would be clapping if they could hear. there claps. please clap. >> unemployment. jonathan: there we go, the primacy of the u.k.. -- prime minister of the u.k.. tom: if i went there, it would be in hr violation. jonathan: come on. be respectful of the office of the primacy. futures are down 52. we are negative one .2% on the s&p 500. we did a market check, so let's move on. 1.5 397 for the yields. everyone is half-asleep. the dollars at 1.1537. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. >> with first word news, brinkmanship is on capitol hill bringing the united states closer to a catastrophic default. democra

tom: i have nothing to say. jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news. democrats are signaling they will accept senate republican leader mitch mcconnell's offer to raise the debt ceiling which would allow the immediate risk of default. it increases another political fight near the end of the year. a federal judge has temporarily block texas' new ban on most abortions. he said the law outsourcing enforcement to bounty hunting members of the public was contrived to get around a constitutional right. it is a major win for the biden administration, which has sued to overturn the ban. damage from the coronavirus expand well beyond the virus according to a study from a health system in st. louis. it found even people never need hospitalizations are in danger of developing heart failure. in china travel during the , so-called golden week national vacation was down by a third from pre-pandemic levels. government measures to contain coronavirus outbreaks prompted vacationers to spend ti

tom: let's get to it. our conversation on the state of the american economy, jan hatzius joins us with goldman sachs. i want to fold it into a slow down and the fiscal oomph to america. did you adjust your gdp down because the fiscal party is over, the fiscal punch bowl is being taken away? jan: that is certainly the reason why we think the economy is going to slow quite a bit in 2022. we have it going to just under 2% by the fourth quarter of next year. in the near term, i think there are still some reasons to expect stronger growth. the trend is down, but i don't think it is going to be a great sign. i think we will get some boost from the delta wave. people have a lot of pent up savings, and i think the inventory cycle is also going to boost growth, but these are already simply short-term. going forward, further on, i think growth is going to be significantly lower. tom: whatever the flavor of inflation here, what does it do to the wage and the inflation-adjusted wage? jan: i think that really depends o

tom: these are real moves. i will tell this again, if not percentage moves it standard deviation moves. it's a bigger move i will go with that. a standard deviation basis around 11% on big tech is contained, it's sitting on one of the moving averages i look at. jonathan: the latest just occasional years blame the bond market. two fridays ago, 1.45. tens this morning 1.49. it hasn't seemed a big move over the last week to justify this gap we've seen in the s&p 500. that in the last 24 hours is felt like a lazy story. lisa: i think it's overly simplistic where there unique stories for each one. they will have delays on some other apple products, facebook with the outage yesterday and then amazon with the pressures from increased wages paid a whole host of different pressures. my question is how much until you get this correction visits are leading into sentiment around equities. at one point is it a buy the dip moment ended one point is it feed into increasing pessimism for investors. jonathan: wasn't that a love

tom: did i do ok? lisa: honestly, with the euro region, what we have seen with the ecb is they are dealing with imports. and the inflationary print is more disinflationary than in the u.s. quite but how does that factor into discussions about supply chain disruptions, about how to alleviate this at a time when there are other issues present. tom: and we are setting up for that year and dash -- end dash, i love what michael purves said, the beta chase. lisa: it is meta, ask mark zuckerberg. i think it raises a question for november and december, what the holidays are going to look like. we have heard it may be disappointing from amazon and apple. there is a concern on whether they will get iphones under the tree. tom: i do not agree. lisa, help me. if there is a catastrophe at amazon, if whole foods does not do sales, they lose those sales, right? but it is physical stuff, we will buy it anyway. kailey: how much does that get redeployed? lisa: where this is a point you made yesterday, people are not buy

give me a forecast, tom. tom: i am trying to get to december. jonathan: i am trying to get to november. the chairman powell thing is getting really testy. jason furman was on twitter yesterday evening, former president of the council of economic advisers, suggest and look into senator warren's financial disclosures. a ton of snark in the tweet. this needs to be settled. tom: what i have been surprised by is where the fed hasn't come out and discerned this person from that person. maybe we await that. maybe we see that. but is it all trading? maybe not. jonathan: what do you think the president is waiting for? always dangerous to try to guess what people are thinking. tom: but you are british. jonathan: we are sitting around here waiting. we are waiting to see them finalize the fiscal package on d.c. before we see what the federal reserve looks like next year? lisa: that's where my mind went also, that he's trying to toe a line with progressive pushing the other direction and taking a hard line when it comes to the what was $3.5 trillion deal, ma

tom: we have to do both. lisa: i'm gonna let you guys decide the important developments of the dow jones but i do want to pick up on 84% beating expectations. what's being priced already to the markets based on the fact that we got a shrug from stock traders and we were punished by bloomberg data going back to 2017. i thought it was fascinating. jonathan: are you trying to stop us from arguing? lisa: know, i just don't want to get in the middle of it. jonathan: let's go through the price action. the bond market is doing something, how sure are we from the highest of the year? 1.7 seven quarter and first quarter, not far off. the euro-dollar at 1.1642. and crude is down. lisa: today we get a rush fed speak. the key issue to me is how do they view the labor market, which is one of their dual mandates? yesterday we heard from a number of different fed officials. they reiterate that this is not an overly tight labor market. we get a further view on it with u.s. initial jobless claims. this is not going down mater

tom: good to hear. coming up, we will speak to catherine hunter ryan, the cfo of engineering construction group about how rising commodity prices and the supply chain tangle are affecting that business. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. 26 minutes into the european trading day. a bit of a turnaround. the stoxx 600 is up .1%. the spanish ibex as well gaining . food and beverage, he saw the strong results. -- we just saw the strong results. that is the state of play as we head to the break. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back. here are your top stories. inflation rates ease as there is a drop in price, assets surge in transportation cost. etf's links to crypto. tom and i are on the watch. trying to restore order after losses. some are more down than up. tom: the treasury yields started to steepen again. 10 year is up. we are looking earnings as well. bitcoin, given the demand for the etf futures lost yesterday. 10 million in trading. more is expected i

i'm tom burgess. ." the democrats accept an offer from the republican surveys the debt limit for two months -- two raise the debtimit for two months, meaning the u.s. default has been avoided for now. and the award for literature has been awarded to a tanzanian novelist, whose novels often depict the flight of hindus. welcome back. in a major challenge to the european union's legal framework, poland's constitutional court has today ruled that some eu laws are in conflict with the polish constitution and that in such instances, poland's laws must be given supremacy. the ruling follows months of court proceedings and has drawn strong criticism from brussels and is expected to further complicate poland's already troubled relationship with the 27-member bloc. here's more now on this ruling. >> they say 80% of paul's -- have p -- of poles or more want to stay in the european union and what the eu to rein in the government's authoritarianism. that is the paradox, really, that people continue in large numbers t

tom: a different -- a $1 trillion stock. tom: it is long -- log convexity. it was accelerating yesterday over that $1 trillion statistic. jonathan: you've got to love elon musk. tesla is very much a production ramp problem. lisa: elon musk of about to become almost twice as rich as the next richest person in the world. he might become the world's first $1 trillion man. people pointed to the fact tesla still has a junk rating. my question is what does it indicate that we are looking at companies that have gotten ahead of their skis in terms of evaluation trying to figure out what these companies are. jonathan: we know it ups is. the earnings come in. a reason to year end for ups. adjusted etf's. a nice bead for them. tom: out of atlanta you know they are rooting for the braves against the astros. they permeate the american economy. i see guidance there up what you see this morning. jonathan: much more to come on the earnings front. equity futures up 19, advancing 4/10 of 1%. yields to 1.6185. tom: it is range bound. it's something we struggled with. you of th

tom: thank you so much. her terrific five decade perspective. -- a terrific five decade perspective. here's what you need to know. their incredible nuances in narrow ranges right now, futures go read off the report now advanced 10. nasdaq leads the way. small caps flat right now. critically, the vix comes in. we have just gone to an 18.9 -- that is the good feeling. lisa abramowicz, i do not get much information from the tens and the 30, but the real yield goes to -.92. there is some bond dynamics. lisa: the take away is it is not going to do rail the federal reserve from tapering. it will be more dovish taper that people will readjust their expectations for when the fed will raise rates and they've indicated it might be a lot longer. i do think this is a confusing report with a lot of moving parts. it is the public school teachers and staff -- the covid sensitive sectors did see employment games. we have seen the participation rate fall. to me it is a huge? . michael: i candidate employment report came out

tom: the what bank space? romaine: neo-bank, tom. you can go to a regular bank like you do, or you can do neo-banks. square, fintech, whatever you want to call it. they are all kind of catchwords on the space now. they simply, you can log onto square, send me money, buy your crypto. tom: is square going to give me a toaster at christmas? romaine: i don't think they do toasters anymore. you can buy your own poster. twitter up from its ad loving -- it's an sharing platform. tom: right now, sarah house helps us with the jobs report, all of this back to the tradition of the great john silvia. they go deeper. you and your team have looked at this pandemic, our labor dynamics, and women. how are women doing within the pandemic and within the jobs reports we see tomorrow? sarah: women are still lagging behind in terms of the labor market recovery. particularly when it comes to mothers, just given the childcare considerations that women and parents generally have had to contend with, but we have seen it disproportionately on women. the parti

tom: he has migrated down. he has been adjusting into this and the vector that all of our listeners and viewers are worried about is the vector of q4 and then the next year he has little bit of optimism versus some of the caution right now. jonathan: the chief economist from goldman sachs 90 minutes away. your equity market is negative on the s&p 500. negative around one third of 1%. the treasury market is closed today. we did close north of 1.60 on friday. in the bund market yields are higher. in the fx market, your euro is little bit weaker. there it is. $81 on wti. kailey: the highest since 2014, feeding into the stagflation fear that may be in this market. we have to talk about what is going on in washington, d.c. the imf and world bank meetings will kickoff. it will not be around the commentary around the global economy. the undercurrent of the meeting will be the scandal shot -- surrounding the managing director and the ethics concern involving her time at the world bank and the actions she may have been

tom? tom: thank you very much indeed. coming up, commodities rally. soaring to an all-time high as a global rebound slides with supply shortages. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to the open. a little under 40 minutes or so away from the cash equity. futures in the u.s. pointing down by 0.1%. in europe, gaining just a small margin after a heavy selloff particularly on wall street yesterday with tech stocks weighing across the board. ok, the bloomberg commodities index has soared to an all-time high, rising more than 1% monday, and topping in 2011 record. that is as a resurgence in demand for raw materials collides with supply constraints, further banning fears of inflation's. the biggest gainers are energy commodities. suzanne is still with us. we have seen energy companies benefiting in of the back of these very high prices. we know that opec-plus is not coming to the rescue. it is sticking with its planned increases. how are you positioning around these record energy prices? >> yes, it is quite a challenge because many of our clients are try