jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, your equity market unchanged, treading water going into the payrolls report. 500 k is the estimate. the fed decision it, what will it take? most people think it's around 200 plus. yields are higher by a couple of basis points. foreign-exchange euro is stronger. to round things out, we keep writing higher. we are getting closer to that 80. tom: $80 on west texas intermediate is an emotional number. i really want to focus here on what we saw yesterday in the markets which drove the vix nicely under 20. it's just one session, the bears were humbled yesterday. there were a lot of bears out there. jonathan: we can talk to lisa about that in a moment. it feels like we kicked the can down on the debt ceiling. maybe the supply-side issues are starting to fade. they are not getting worse. lisa: you are trying to get me to be bullish. tom: we are failing. lisa: some shipping costs are coming down remarkably from china to los angeles dropping 40%. is this good new

jonathan: most people will agree on that. we are talking about, given the tone of the conversation to the first, so this program, we have a pretty decent set up. lisa: it is decent, but there are concerns. all of the notes were negative on the ism, even though people were talking about persistent frictions in the market boating poorly for the potential outlook for the labor market. jonathan: equities are getting hammered by about 2%. tom: you are paid per day a check. that's like derek cole getting paid per pitch. that is a beautiful full -- beautiful thing. jonathan: we are negative one point. 2%. from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. >> it is a strategy shift by the white house. president biden's team is trying to broker a scale back. advisors are weighing the liberal policy priorities against moderate concerns about inflation and tax x. meanwhile, the president is trying to drum up support for the plan in michigan. those of his plan are complicit in america's decline. the fed reserve chair powel

jonathan: sorry. i was saying just that you made a compelling case for why you think this needed to exist. this open translation center. why you think your republican colic support it? rep. castro: there is concern all around. there is concern about what our posture as a nation and congress should be. if you look around congress, there's people whose posture is aggressive and hawkish and wants to punish china for everything. there are people that take a more measured approach and want to see where we can cooperate and collaborate but the fundamental basis for any of that, we should all agree is understanding what china is actually saying and doing. this is not just the equivalent of google translate. if that were the case we would leave it to automation. there is a component here that in -- that involves analysis. analyzing. if there is a speech given by different chinese leaders, understanding the significance of who the speakers are and whether that particular person is close to zhejiang paying. --

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, inflation pressure is lingering into year-end as well as sensitivity and the bond market. we begin with the big issue, kicking off q4. >> we are still dealing with a lot of uncertainty -- >> ringing alarm bells -- >> the supply chain issues -- >> the real question will be on the supply side. >> this is for nonprofit. >> inflationary pressures -- >> inflation is not going down. >> the fed has said they are not changing policy. >> inflation is above the target rate. >> it's unlikely they can get to their target. >> no one wants the fed slamming on the brakes. >> the stories say that investors and markets are climbing a wall of worry again. we don't know how that worked out. >> the question is what you do as an investor. >> to help us navigate our our guests. let's start with you, sebastian. what is the playbook with you right now? >> the concerns you highlighted on with the program are definitely valid. we saw strong ism, we got a strong consumer. the delta variant cases see

jonathan: the week begins. good morning, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and i am jonathan ferro. tom keene put it in a headline, the week begins on wednesday. tom: it begins tomorrow. the inflation picture with all its complexities. jonathan: it is a test for the big story we have discussed for week, the upside risks for inflation. the upside risk for inflation. tom: the conversation we had yesterday was important. he implied we need to be very careful. you can get back to a 4%, nominal gdp. that is a topline gdp. i don't think anybody is mentally prepared for that. jonathan: we can pretend it is a monday and welcome back in lisa and brahma wits. -- risa abramowitz. -- lisa abramowicz. lisa: the idea that consumer sentiment is declining and this, white is confidence in the reflation story picking up and we are seeing small is this optimism, disappointing. people's optimism seems to be waning on a consumer level. what gives? jonathan: look out for the fed speak. lisa will give you the da

jonathan elsewhere, jonathan kott, maria teresa kumar, thank you for coming here. tonight more on the january 6th committee. the panel is considering criminal contempt for witnesses who defy their subpoenas. more on that, next. more on that, next with pronamel repair toothpaste, we can help actively repair enamel in its weakened state. it's innovative. my go to toothpaste is going to be pronamel repair. we have to be able to repair the enamel on a daily basis. with pronamel repair toothpaste, we can help actively repair enamel in its weakened state. it's innovative. my go to toothpaste is going to be pronamel repair. ♪ limu emu & doug ♪ oh! are you using liberty mutual's my go to toothpaste coverage customizer tool? sorry? well, since you asked. it finds discounts and policy recommendations, so you only pay for what you need. limu, you're an animal! who's got the bird legs now? only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ [music: "i swear"] jaycee tried gain flings for the first time the other day... and forgot where she was. you can

jonathan capehart in for jordans o'donnell. i love when i with times get to shand my show over to you. i hand it off to you. you are covering the stuff that's going none in washington, custom is puzzling even for the experts. >> yeah, it has been a bananas day. i have to ask you, before you go, give the travels that you make around the country -- i can't wait the see your discussion with the folks there in san antonio. but given your travels around the country, i wonder, are you more hopeful than, say, the stories that we cover and the politics that we have to cover. >> i will say this, i am more worried about disinformation because i run into all the time. when when i bring different groups together and they manage to have a good conversation with each other all the time. i am much more hopeful about the -- the that discourse can get us somewhere, empathy still lives but people are dwelling off of a lot of bad information, making decisions off of entirely false information, usually that they are getting off of social media. th

jonathan: he is wearing great today. let's get to some stock movers for you. >> a lot going on today. tesla is moving higher. cars delivered in the most recent period. 20,000 above the longer term average. they actually fell. the lowest on record. this was the most heavily shorted stock. so quite a turnaround. flirting with 800 bucks a share. a rally from last week. really have not found any out there. this could be a game changer for the rest of the space as well. they are all down once again. philip the board. interesting for the airlines. getting the upgrade today. a lot of the airfare carriers are faring much better as we move into the post-pandemic period. tom: it is important that you brought this up. the zeitgeist of expanding premium economy is all part of the new domestic game. >> airlines have a lot more flexibility. you rip out some of those normal economies to make a premium economy. it just means that you pay more. i cannot see tom in the economy. jonathan: tom, is it time to deliver this premium? tom: i thi

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. we will talk a little about football, inflation, and why the economy is slowing and could slow more quickly. an interesting one coming up. equity futures up .4%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> an exclusive bnp paribas open update for bloomberg. the first finals are set and indian wells. clinching his second come back win in as many days to reach the final four. the victory was the bulgarian's 100th at a masters event and his first in two years. he will face cameron norrie. on the women's side, she continued her excellent run with a straight-set win. the win puts the 23-year-old within reach of her made in 1000 crown. don't forget tennis channel's exclusive daily coverage aired daily at 1:00 p.m. eastern. it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without b

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in an effort to help american workers and businesses. one u.s. official says china may not change its trade practices, and the u.s. needs a strategy that takes that into account. here in the u.k., chancellor richey soon at said he will spend $678 million to help people find jobs. household budgets are coming under strain after a cap on energy prices rose 12%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> we are going down from 6 trillion to 3 trillion, now one trillion. we have these conservatives that their baseline is zero. the agreement several months ago to proceed on that one bipartisan bill was that it was tied with our larger build back better agenda. both of these bills need to pass. both will not pass if people try to separate them. jonathan: congresswoman ocasio-cortez speaking there. yo

jonathan: i am in for jonathan ferro, and this is real yield. we are going to take things off. $133 billion in short notes, and investors demand has improved on the seven-year sale this week. let is been an onslaught of degradation slowing, but we are seeing this fueled the biggest october in four years. there is a little bit of a sour ending to a busy month and jump on sales. with an additional $4 billion in sales, it is the slowest week in february since february. great, let me start with you. some of the losses you've seen in credit, is that a function of rising rates, or is there something sinister going on with this fundamental? >> i don't think it is sinister. taylor: i said that for halloween. >> i think things are quite good, and this is not a story where fundamentals are deteriorating. it is not a negative fundamental story. i think it is quite frankly, volatility happening around the seams of treasury. it is causing investors to take a step back. i would not read too much into it. at the same time, the value proposition of credit elsew

jonathan hoenig and eddie ghabour are back with us. eddie, specifically one reason that it popped so much today is we have this morgan stanley report with a rice target of about $1200 for the stock, and hertz is also ordering about 100,000 tesla ares. so those two bits of information combined to make then. how much do you think it could go up? >> you know, look, with tesla i've always said never bet against elon musk. i think there's still quite a bit after upside. there's certainly going to be more competition with ford coming on line, but at the end of the day i think tesla's still going to be looked at as the leader. you're going to see people pile into this and try to get in the action. there's still a decent amount of upside. in my opinion, in that stock. it's aguestive though, it's not for everybody. david: jonathan, speaking of competition, some people say there's not enough competition for what facebook does and what google does and so forth. why do you think -- i mean, is it just a matter of the goliath of these social media c

jonathan: i think i understood what you just said. jonathan: does that make sense? does that make sense? it seems to be the strategy from the democrats. lisa: how do you galvanize unity? he was one of the greatest unifying factors for democrats out there, trump was and it highlights some of the challenges in washington this morning. jonathan: futures are a bit of a snooze this morning. it's a bit of calm this morning. yields on a basis point, 10-year, up a couple of basis points on the front end, if you basis points this morning, that's your next stop for this market. earnings look good. apple, amazon tomorrow, then chairman powell on wednesday with payrolls two fridays away. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emot

[laughter] jonathan: equities up 0.4%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm laura wright. the u.s. and chinese government have made progress in their economic and trade negotiations. treasury secretary janet yellen and china's vice premier liu he held their second call in around four months. beijing described the conversation as pragmatic, candid, and productive. china has repeated that the u.s. should lift tariffs on chinese exports imposed during the trump administration. senate democrats have moved closer to an agreement on president biden's economic agenda. senator joe manchin expressed optimism there could be a deal this week. he has been pushing to shrink the size of the social spending package. still, somehow slum acres raised doubts about the terms of the deal being discussed -- somehow slum acres -- some house lawmakers raised doubts about the terms of the deal being discussed. starting on november 8, singapore is in the open so-called travel lanes with 10 other countries, inc

jonathan: thank you. tom: what great is the line shows up and i learned something about the bloomberg. there is a chart that says you should own. it's blinking on my screen that it you are an idiot to be triple leveraged. jonathan: there are bigger soccer games. a good interview later. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president biden says the u.s. has a commitment to protect taiwan and would come to its defense if attacked by china. the town hall event in baltimore, the president said he did not want a cold war but wants china to understand the u.s. will not step back or change its views. germany has recorded its steepest one-day increase in covid-19 cases and more than five months. there were 116 deaths reported which is the most since mid may. officials have expressed optimism they would not need additional virus restrictions in the last few days. 66% of the population has been vaccinated. shares of snapchat tumbled after apple issues are weighing on advertising spending and that is impacting its

jonathan: kailey leinz with us today, tom keene, jonathan ferro. i'm looking forward to more of that production down the road. tom: you are so sensitive this morning. jonathan: the question i get the most often is " do you actually like each other?" that is pure love! this is bloomberg. ♪ this halloween, xfinity rewards is offering up some spooky-good perks. like the chance to win a universal parks & resorts trip to hollywood or orlando to attend halloween horror nights. or xfinity rewards members, get the inside scoop on halloween kills. just say "watch with" into your voice remote for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save

i'm jonathan lemire. a key fda advisory panel is recommending that the agency grant emergency use authorization to fiez's covid vaccine for children ages 5 to 11. the recommendation is adopted by the fda and cdc would make 28 million young kids eligible for their shots. parents are waiting for this. nbc news correspondent sam brock has the latest. >> hey, buddy. >> reporter: a near unanimous all clear from the fda panel of pfizer vaccine data for 5 to 11 year olds. >> dr. gann voted yes. this concludes the vote. >> reporter: paving the way for 20 million children eligible for a covid shot, potentially pending fda and cdc approval. >> any way to keep them safer. >> reporter: the pfizer reviewed data shows the child-size dose, more than a third of what's given to adults, some hold deep reservations 6 in 10 parents in a recent study say they will wait and see or won't vaccinate their children at all. some parents we spoke to say they aren't anti-vaccine but have concerns about mandates. >> i'm not opposed to

jonathan: i know it is. tom: -- jonathan: equity futures up a third of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> house democrats went home last night without voting on that infrastructure bill. nancy pelosi will try again today. she is being held up by a fight between moderate and progressive democrat. they will not vote until the spending bill passes both houses of congress. they are planning a stopgap funding bill that maintains funding levels until november -- december 3. janet yellen has said that if congress does not raise the debts dealing the government may not be able to pay its bills. european natural gas prices climbed to a record 100 euros. europe is struggling to find enough: gas. -- enough coal and gas. according to an interim analysis of a late stage trial, -- another hurdle for the global economy. a metal used in everything from car parts to phone chips is scarce. global news, 24 hours a day, i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. >> you have acted to make our banking system laissez and that -- less safe, and that makes you a dangerous man to head up the f

jonathan: up 1/10 of 1% on the s&p. ♪ jonathan: remind me not to get involved in major league baseball banter. i am told the red sox are tied with the mariners, not the toronto blue jays. they are in the other corner. i appreciate that. from new york city, good morning. the price action, posited by more than 1/10 of 1%. -- positive by more than 1/10 of 1%. the russell up about 1/10. morgan stanley repeated yesterday, corporate america has some explaining to do when it comes to margins. earnings season will be fascinating, q3 as we look ahead to q4. credit suisse and andrew garth with a fantastic note, talking about the only major sector to outperform when inflation expectations rise and pmi's fall, energy. look at the outperformance, 11 percentage points higher over the last month. tech down 5%, 6%, 15, 16 percentage points energy relative to tech. that's a monster move. tom: i wonder what you do on sell side versus what we see from the strategists looking for higher oil prices. jonathan: we've got to have that discussion. 11% on the month, remarkable. on the treasuries, up 18, 20 basi

jonathan: i missed that one. when you begin the sentence with a little bit of amateur it doesn't bring a lot of credibility. tom: what i like about feldman's he's got even margins and ups, united postal service just comes out and they raise their operating margin to 13%. jonathan: tony joining us. tony, this cycle is moving so quickly. the center for the outlook. tony: we'll elect to about the yield curve and movement speaks to this idea of a fast-moving cycle. we are probably at midcycle meaning look at the unemployment rate, what is a late cycle condition. that lower rate can be achieved for full employment next year. the federal reserve will be in the mid-threes by the end of next year. it's important to be on your toes, it's a -- it's important to be active with portfolio management to be thinking more about security selection and regional selection, one final note, it is flattened reasonably and that something that happens later in the cycle. the federal reserve is raising the short-term rate. tom: two cent

jonathan: we assume that, yes. the big conversation is december, when they work out what to do with the flick's ability and the bond buying programs. tom: are we going to see a 2025 headline? jonathan: i want to see the forecast. i am with you. candy t word hold up? tom: the t word is what, trillion? jonathan: transitory. tom: i thought it was trillion. two point $5 trillion, apple. microsoft. google, i can't do the math. $1.7 trillion, amazon. tesla, barely over $1 trillion. david wilson come ago -- david wilson, go. david: compare it against all of the other automakers in developed markets as were present at by the msci automobiles index. tesla is equal to all of them combined. tom: how much did gm grow yesterday? david: 1.5%, basically. if you compare that to the total market value of all of the other companies in the msci world index, you find that one days worth of increase in tesla exceeded all of the other total market, except for toyota, ad $281 billion. tom: is this on electric cars? how to the other elect

jonathan: get it done. from new york, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i don't know what i'm talking about. tom: neither do i. [laughter] ♪ ♪ >> the market seems to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or risk in the equity market. >> for the economy it is important but for the market it is about earnings. >> there is plenty of demand across the board. that issue is can that demand be fulfilled? announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and

jonathan: alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. equities just a little bit softer. record highs again at the close on tuesday. into the bond market, yields are lower by couple of basis points, 1.5887. and crude, a lot of weakness in the commodity complex this morning, crude 83.54, negative 1.3%. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. democrats are trying a new and risky approach to get jeff bezos to pay for president biden's agenda. those with at least $1 billion in assets and those who earn at least $100 million three years in a row. meanwhile, a separate tax would require companies that report more than $1 billion in profit to pay at least a 15% tax rate. president biden is zeroing in on whether to renominate jerome powell for another term as chair of the federal reserve. the president has started to meet with top white house and treasury aids to review candidates. he has not settled on a choice, and it is unclear whether he is leaning toward reappointing powell or replacing him. bloomberg has learned that the maker

jonathan: any other one-liners, tom? tom: wages. jonathan: futures positive 0.1%. tom: let's start the show. jonathan: euro-dollar from her -- euro-dollar firmer. crude, $78.85 now. your equity market treading water going into this one. lisa: this is really the question. how much does it take to change the needle in equity markets, and bond markets? 8:00 a.m., september payrolls. the expectation is for 500,000. bloomberg economics estimates above where ellen zentner is. the question is, how much does this move the needle for the unemployment rate? how much does this move the needle for participation, and how much does this move spec for fed policy? 10:00 a.m., labor secretary marty walsh speaking with our very own jonathan ferro. he's going to be speaking about what to expect with how sticky wage pressures are, how to create a virtual wage increase spiral because it takes more than one, two, three years of increases in wages before we get that. at 11:30 am, we hear from president biden, busy on absolutely everything right now. he wants to talk about how great the l

jonathan: he's a fantastic player. bernardo silva, the problem, you have to be both very versatile, playing lots of positions, and also very disciplined, play a specific role at a specific time for the manager. he expect a lot from his players. tom: i was a complete ignoramus. jonathan: did you enjoy that game? tom: i make jokes about "the simpsons," halfback to the fullback, fullback to the halfback, except when those teams do it, there's a reason. jonathan: there's a purpose. was there a purpose to this? i enjoyed "ted lasso," for what it's worth. i watched the whole first season. i thought danny had done it at the end of the season. not to spoil it for anyone. tom: how british was "ted lasso?" jonathan: it was pretty decent. i have one frustration from anything apple makes. the product placement is too much. it is distracting. apple this, apple that. it is everywhere. that's my frustration with this particular reduction. it is just distracting. i like it, though. tom: it is like "surveillance" because i don't unders

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. gas prices fueling inflation jitters. >> inflation is more persistent. >> going from transitory to being here for a while. >> oil and natural gas prices. >> gas prices pushing extremely high. >> gas prices skyrocketing. >> inflation is hot. >> you will see inflation rise. >> inflation is not going down. >> we have persisted inflation. >> this is

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. congressional democrats have made headway in breaking the stalemate over president biden's economic agenda by getting rid of or trimming parts of the multitrillion dollar tax and spending package. progress came after the president met with various lawmakers yesterday. expected targets for cuts include tuition free community college and a shortening of the expanded child tax care reddit stench of -- tax care credit extension. able kino -- a volcano in southern japan erupted. the bundesbank president stepping down from his post at the end of the year. a statement from the central bank says he submitted his resignation to the german president for personal reasons. the 53-year-old has been germany's central bank chief for more than a decade and is considered one of the more hawkish members of the european governing council. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than

jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. equity market up 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) if you've struggled to lose weight, you might think you were born with a slow metabolism, but what you may have is insulin resistance. fat becomes trapped inside your body and it becomes very difficult to lose weight. now there's golo. golo works to reverse the effects of insulin resistance, increase metabolic efficiency, and targets stubborn belly fat. join over two million people who have found a smarter way to lose weight and get healthier. go to golo.com and change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. jonathan: live from new york city on radio and tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. here is price action for you. equity market up 19. nasdaq, up by 0.3%.four days of gains on the s&p. within 1% of all-time highs. here is a single name -- danone. their stock is down. this from the cfo, we expect 2020 to on the same level as -- we expect 2022 on the same level as 2021. stock trading -- that stock trading negative in france. let us quickly finish on the bond

carl wallenberg says this is not . 19 jonathan: jonathan: 70's. that was set -- not the 1970's. jonathan: at the start of september, we knew september wasn't happening. is it october? no. q1, q2? at the start of 2021 this year, we thought we would have a lot of this dealt with. now we are staring down the reality perhaps that it stays with us a whole lot longer. tom: let's digress to this before the data check. democrats not seeking debt limit increase to february. i don't even understand what that headline means, speaks volumes about washington. jonathan: they are looking to kick the can down the road, to delay the inevitable conversation they've got to have without resolving anything. that seems to be the direction of travel down in washington, d.c. tom: the direction of travel this morning, i am going to go to the big, round number. nasdaq oz and the 11% you saw, up 1.2%. jonathan: the bond market not doing much. yields unchanged on tens right now. crude, the turn in energy just seems right now there's an inverse correlation between risk assets and energy. crude is down by 1.

i don't know. >> sandra: did that surprise you jonathan? >> it does, and that with a host of legal experts as destroying the integrity of the justice department. and the beginning of the investigation of the customs officer has declared them guilty and said they had been stopping these individuals trying to come into the country. that's really out of line and it's a direct sort of flap of the justice department independence. in total and nothing but crickets in response to that. the president has made repeated statements about pending investigations most recently in saying that anyone who doesn't comply with the subpoenas in congress should be prosecuted by the justice department. the record here is not quite as redeeming and i don't necessarily say that those are an and proper and those are not public statements who should and -- the justice department. >> john: you mentioned a moment ago that the attorney general is somewhat like sergeant schultz and hogan's heroes, i know nothing. congressman mike johnson in louisiana and the attorney ge

if jonathan turley joins us now. using your father as a cash register is probably the worst of it but it's not just that. it's the money laundering, suspicions with the art gallery, it is -- i don't know, kickbacks from the chinese. documented in the laptop, jonathan. where you start? >> you have to start with the general agreement with hunter biden and what he's doing and to some extent, his uncle, was a classic peddling scheme that went on for years and raised millions of dollars. really hunter biden had nothing to sell but influence and accents. he himself admitted he was a hard addict in terms of drugs and alcohol. going up to the campaign for the presidency. he only had influence and access to cell and he did. now, what's troubling is that there is already a criminal investigation in the field, they are already investigating possible tax violations and money laundering. it is impossible to investigate those questions at this point without stumbling over the president of the united states. the emails that you ref

jonathan: stay close. we've also got steady group coming up -- got citigroup coming up at the top of the hour. morgan stanley up by 1.65%. bank of america numbers tidy, likewise with jp morgan, again with morgan stanley. let's talk to stephen biggar now, director of financial research at argus. what is the number one take away for you? stephen: certainly it has been a powerful third-quarter for market activity. equity underwriting, ipo activity in particular. over 100 companies went public in the third quarter. if you include specs, over 500 -- includes -- include spac's, over 500 companies. another important one would be loan growth. we saw that over the summer, according to fed data. that is starting to pick up again. for the regional banks, you've got an improving story there as well. tom: james gorman has the respect of everyone on wall street. without question, he was the manager of the decade with the move to wealth management. everybody likes to talk about this other stuff. what i see is $6.2 trilli

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jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with a big issue, democrats looking to wrap up a deal. >> it does not excite me that much. >> it is going to be lower than $3.5 trillion. 50% of that. >> we are in that ballpark. >> the trick is how to pay for it. >> corporate taxes may be off the table. >> how are they going to pay for this? >> other tax possibilities. >> it concerns me. >>

jonathan: we can hardly wait. tom, you have been talking about this, the resilience of corporations. they hiked prices in the third quarter by 4.1%. the most since 2012. unilever is the stock i want to bring up. hiking prices since 2012. that's a change. jonathan: -- tom: unilever is that staple along with nestle. they are managing for a lower nominal gdp. a lower nominal growth. they have a tough decision to make but a history of making those tough decisions. jonathan: what's fascinating is that there's a consumer price tolerance. i think that's what we are looking for. tom: it is. they will take the price increase. i don't see a can of tomatoes where you cut out a tomato. i have not seen that yet. the real focus is can we raise prices and will the consumer accept it. the answer seems to be i guess so. jonathan: this is up for 3%. tom: that's y mistake for 2021. jonathan: there will be more. we did have a conversation about the shape of this cycle. can you walk me through my this is different if you think it will

jonathan: i'm with you. lisa: i personally think this is such a difficult moment to address because you can't really make assumptions based on such narrow frames of reference. i keep going back to the quote that basically come these wage increases have to be persistent across years before you get that inflationary wage spike. what do you do with that if you are in the market having to trade on a daily basis? jonathan: equities up by 1%, we advance by 42. a fascinating note from citigroup's morning. just really heartfelt and wonderful, what rob buckland over at citi is doing, honoring tobias levkovich. i will let their words speak for us. "we mourn the passing of our dear colleague and as are some of these to his family. we renamed our panic indicator as the left of it -- as the levkovich indicator. " i know i speak for us and the whole of the team, we will, too. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the senate is closing in on a deal that would potentially avert a debt crisis for now. then, con

jonathan: help me out. lisa: not only are we nearing all-time highs, we see 10 year yields continuing declines of the highest level since may of this year. the idea of higher inflation, a higher yield isn't scaring the equity bowls. it actually shows faster sales offset by lower margins but still optimism. >> let's get to the price action . equity market up 29. bond yields unchanged. in the fx market, we can talk a little bit about the exit of the blunders bank. -- of the bundesbank. 82.24 for crude. lisa: which fed speakers are going to speak. this follows yesterday's rash of fed speak as well. i wanted to point to one statement by christopher waller where he said it's the upside risk comes to pass, inflation above 2% then i will favor lift off sooner than i now anticipate. we talked about how they separate the idea of taper from left off, it's not that separate even in the minds of the governor and the fed officials were looking at inflation that continues to run hotter than they expected. i'm very intere

jonathan: very much so. tom: we bundle them all in together, and i really can't say how wells fargo has separated away from these other banks. they all have their own stories, foibles, etc., but to me, wells fargo is removed -- kenley on is better -- can leon is utter at that than any of us are -- better at that than any of us are. help us with the distinction -- how separate are they from bank of america, j.p. morgan, and citigroup? ken: they are handcuffed with their ability to grow assets, so they have to be selective with where to get the best profit for the return. as far as investors, i have to disagree -- bank of america looks like a clean quarter. everything is firing on all signals. wells fargo, they have a bigger delta opportunity if they can improve businesses. with wells fargo, the velocity of mortgages, refi is a big engine for wells fargo in they have another big delta on the card business -- they still have a national platform for the consumer, so it is not always who is the best and who is th

i'm jonathan lemire. we'll start with the news. yesterday morning the president pitched a slimmed down version of his social spending package to lawmakers and the american people. the white house had hopes that the announcement of a build back better act framework would be inuvik to convince house progressives they would vote for the infrastructure bill. instead they dug in and insisted the bills be voted on together. in a statement congresswoman jayapal said, quote, members of our caucus will not vote for the infrastructure bill would the build back better action. we will work immediately to finalize and pass both pieces of legislation through the house together. the act includes paid family leave, free community college, and lowering the cost of drugs. instead they passed transportation funding that was running out and being used as an artificial deadline. during his appearance after the democratic caucus meeting to build support for the reconciliation deal, president biden framed the moment ascii to th

jonathan: sure. tom: 57 minutes away to inflation, the published inflation is going to be omg, we are all going to die. the adults are watching cleveland, dallas, some of the atlanta statistics. they are watching core cpi to come back down to where it was. the gloom crew doesn't believe that. jonathan: what direction has it been heading in recently? tom: it is a little bit elevated, yes. it is a little bit elevated, no question about it. jonathan: we can talk about it later. tens, 1.5682%. let's get you some movers and a deep dive on this jp morgan numbers and say good morning to romaine. romaine: overall a decent quarter, and revenue that beat by a mile. some of that came because of the additional release of those reserves. in the fic business, about a 20% drop, but still relatively in line with that investment fees. it is pretty much what is keeping the stock afloat, up about 0.3% in the premarket. we should point out the leverage ratios also look good. the slr right around 5.5%. it's a relatively

jonathan: i know. it was not an accusation, just an observation. , accelerate negative supply dynamics and upgrade to inflation and a downgrade to growth expectations at the same time. it is clearly negative for wrists asset -- risk assets. tom: the supply shock of brexit versus the union of 1970. the basic idea is that every country for itself. you mentioned the central banks. do they coordinate in this fourth quarter? jonathan: december will be interesting. the line from deutsche bank is clearly a negative for risk assets, upside risks to inflation, downside risk to growth. what is your response? steve: what you are seeing is a tightening of financial conditions that in part is from central banks beginning to move away from easing towards tightening. we priced in a full percentage point rise by the federal reserve by the end of 2023. before now and then the federal reserve. buying bonds gradually into the middle of next year -- will stop buying bonds gradually into the middle of next year. the two mu

jonathan: 6:47? [laughter] this is bloomberg. ♪ loomberg. ♪ (announcer) looking for a better way to lose weight and feel good? how about the one with a 98% success rate and a more affordable weight-loss solution? that's golo. there are no monthly fees and it's guaranteed to work or you don't pay. no stimulants, no starving, just results, results you'll keep for life. with over 2 million satisfied customers, golo is the new way to lose weight. go to golo.com and get your life back... -with golo. -golo! >> the growth story remains very strong come even after the loosening of the pandemic, the worry that there might be a spend competition. but so far, the cannabis sector seems to be holding up very strong. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." what a morning. in about 20 minutes' time, we have earnings from jp morgan. equity futures positive .6% on the s&p, nasdaq 100, the russell doing ok, up 5, rising .2 4%. fantastic repo

jonathan: it is persistent. yields have been moving higher off of early august, and threatening to go higher from here. in the fx market, talk a little bit about that dollar strength. euro-dollar -0.5%. lisa: to become, the stories go very much together. the idea that you have a risk off mood, bonds are not a haven. what is the threshold for the fed to start tapering monthly bond purchases? that threshold has gotten a lot lower. 8:15 am, we get the adp unemployment change. this is not necessarily that indicative. what is the threshold for the federal reserve? a lot of people are saying the bar has been lowered. they want to stop buying bonds, even if the economy is showing some strains. at 11:00, president biden hosting some banks to talk about the debt ceiling. expect a lot of discussion about the potential risks of defaulting. does this matter to anyone? the t-bill yields have been rising. however, still not indicating the kind of distress we saw back in 2011. today is the second day of the bloomberg invest co

jonathan just seen. >> marissa, thank you. now here's a quick rundown of some other major fires that we're following across california tonight, the knp complex fire which is burning in the sequoia and kings canyon national parks right now. the new numbers show that nearly 88,000 acres burned and 55% containment. meanwhile, the caldor fire is also getting closer to complete containment tonight. it is now at 98% containment and has burned more than 221,000 acres the monument fire which has burned 2223,000 acres is 94% contained and the envelope fire at 95%. containment has burned nearly 146,000 acres. meanwhile, the dixie fire, which is one of the largest in california state history tonight is at 94%. containment. it has burned nearly 965,000 acres since it started more than 3 months ago. it turns out the wellesley fire did more destruction than originally thought when it scorched parts of malibu back in 2018 soul samples taken right after show right after the follow fire shows that radioactive particles ended up in neighborhood

>> jonathan: it is just a band-aid. when he talked to senior officials, they acknowledge -- f crisis is that steve just outlined, it's unprecedented. when you overlay a global pandemic with a earthquake in haiti and the assassination of the leader, the economic crisis in the region, it's only getting worse. my colleague interviewed panama's prime minister and this is only getting worse. some of it is endorsement from the biden administration's policies and traffickers using it to message people and the reason saying come on out, not. there's got to be enforcement on the u.s. side but there has to be cooperation for others in the region because the scale of the problem has become so massive that is going to require solutions. >> chris: hears description of the border this week. take a look. >> huge national security problem. we have people crossing the border and we've heard number of people in the thousands. >> chris: this is the kind of uncontrolled illegal immigration that can cost a party politically. you even had fo

i think that's absolutely right, jonathan. democrats are confident they'll get this across the finish line. that's why we see biden already out in public talking about the tangible impacts, right? he was in michigan talking about the benefits of paid family leave and benefits of child care. we know that that resonates, right? i feel like democrats are so confident coming into this effort because they ran on this platform in 2020, so they took it a little bit for granted that they knew what was in it since they voted for it. now it's a reminder. remind people how yo are tangibleably impacting people's lives which is controlling the white house and congress so people can feel that transition, feel how you're fighting for them, and take that energy into the fold. this is a critical public education thing. we talk about enumerating all the benefits, emphasizing the differences they'll see in their own lives, aed some that's what democrats are going to continue to do in the weeks not only to negotiate this but in the midterms leadi