geoff: precisely. the reason i thought euro-sterling would outperform it will be difficult for the banks to hike into fiscal tightening for all the things we listed. tax increases amongst other things as well so that was already difficult. if they do things early and compound the situation, household cash flow will face serious restraints the next six month or so. if you hike into that, you risk data falling off. what is the rush? why not wait until we get a better picture of income growth? then they can move accordingly. alix: is there another central bank looking at a policy mistake? it does seem it is on a removing accommodation trajectory. geoff: i would not say so. within g10, the boe probably stands out. central and eastern europe is looking interesting. they are hiking aggressively as well. can they see the labor market in the region continue to recover at a stronger clip? that is where i am looking for potential u-turns as well. guy: how high would you put the possibility recession in the next

jonathan: geoff yu there a bny mellon. equity futures this morning negative a little more than 1% on the s&p. the good news is we are off the lows. the bad news is we are still negative. the nasdaq down by 1.28%. the russell off by 1.26%. let's start with natural gas prices in the u.k. the chart parabolic, vertical. gas prices rallying really aggressively. not just the u.k. come about across the board in europe. we were off by almost 40% a little bit earlier. we are off those highs -- we were up by almost 40% a little bit earlier. we are off those highs. you take the real yield, subtract the real yield from the inflation linked curve, and you get the implied inflation rate, the market-based implied inflation rate. it looks like this right now, explosive. 13 your highs on breakevens and the u.k. the energy story spills over to inflation expectations. nominal yields shift higher as well. this is the risk aversion story at the moment. yields are up two, three basis points on the nominal 10 year yield in the u.s. this is the s