it will not be used as leverage. we will vote for that part infrastructure as long as we get a little bit more when it comes to the human infrastructure package. romaine: how much political capital is being expended on this particularly when we know he has a relatively aggressive agenda he wants to get done. >> a lot of political capital is being used in terms of aids going back and forth to the hill. also you can see where the president has been making his trips recently. it's all been in the midwest, all two areas that are conservative and back the republican campaign. he is making his pitch as to why his goals for softer infrastructure in that human infrastructure is needed. last week on friday when he was talking about all the efforts they made the goal and the progress after the jobs report, when he was asked about foreign policy in afghanistan, he did not want to talk about that. it's very much focused on the domestic play right now. jonathan: let's talk about this market. down about 68 points on the bond marke

jp morgan behind us. goldman sachs just in front of us. tom: it's a different bank. i think there is too much made about their similarities. it will be interesting to see if they make any comments about what they've got in return to office. they certainly made a lot of headlines there. i just really want to emphasize these ratios of their balance sheet go so far beyond the swiss glory of decades ago. it's like we've imported swiss bank balance sheets into america. jonathan: we are negative across the board by a little more than 1%. just a touch softer going into numbers. i come out about every minutes time. your equity market coming into tuesday at all-time highs. goldman is next and then it's cpi in america with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ "me and you" by barry louis polisar ] ♪ me and you just singing on the train ♪ ♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪ ♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me

i used these models as a starting point. i don't use them as gospel. i use them to give me some direction. are we undervalued, fairly valued, overvalued? once we have that general sense of direction, what could go wrong, and what could go right? as we take a look at things now, the things that could go wrong include commodity prices. we have seen what opec has done. this could be more of a problem for markets outside the united states, so in the u.s., commodity prices are actually fairly small component of our total cost. the second thing that i am perhaps even more worried about has to do with public health. we have had these incredible vaccines, extraordinarily effective, and now we are bumping into problems with regard to distribution. in the united states, we think this will be a regional issue rather than a nationwide, but if you take a look at the reopening of places like europe, it is much more problematic. the distribution in europe of the mrna vaccine really has been lagging. it is one of the reasons that the gdp expectations in continental eu

let us bring in eric friedman. let us start right here and not with ted lasso. isn't it just a little correction or is this a transition into something bigger? eric: we think it is a pause. two reasons. one, we think there is this goal between what we are calling horizon one and horizon two. gradual hope mode -- mobility increases. horizon two is what happens once we are already there, one set reopening has occurred. we do think that the fits and starts that we are seeing in horizon one will have corrections like this. there's probably nuance here. the bond market is likely pricing horizon two. the internal value of funds likely lower, as well as general productivity and demographics weaker. we think this push i can pull continues, but we are still bullish and sticking with that growth mentality. tom: this is aged -- an extremely sober adult note. we do not see enough of those. when it is a phase transition, how do you know when to make that transition for different portfolio allocation? eric: the biggest thing is three variables. one, the dollar. this will rise

goldman sachs, let us not count them out on m&a. they have not done anything big yet, at their stock is pushing $400 and a much different calculus then it was not too long ago at $200. have a stronger currency and i think that gives you more flexibility to do mna, and they have a lot of capital that they have built into the system. they were not buying back stocks, and as we were talking about a number of growth initiatives particularly in consumer and wealth that also with an active management, and i would expect goldman to be the equivalent, but that is the key thing. goldman has so many areas that are newer and starting from a smaller base, so that is why we are more optimistic over the next couple of years because these newburgh roshan -- growth initiatives are small but very significant. i think the student loan business over the next 10 years could be one third or more of their overall business. jonathan: you alluded to that stronger currency, the stock is up by more than 40%. talk to me about the way you think they would be b

lisa back with us next week. kailey leinz with us this morning. tom:

joining us from the depths of eastern venice, maria tadeo joins us. what is so important to understand is you go down past the acclaimed restaurant and you go along the canal at the water, and you get over come in just a little bit further, is harry's bar. maria tadeo will get there today. within the celebration, what is actually getting accomplished at this meeting? maria: on the one hand, it is an interesting question because a lot of the ministers are very positive there will be a deal on taxation. they say there is nothing short of a tax revolution we are seeing. you see behind the scenes, ministers tell you there are a lot of issues pending. one is the 15%. we know for the irish a minimum corporate tax at that rate is very problematic. the french say they want to take it even higher. for the americans the fact the european union is going ahead at their own digital tax is problematic. all of this is happening in the context of coronavirus. this new wave taking hold in europe. a lot of smiles as well as pictures happening because it is a beautiful

thrilled we could join us -- thrilled he could join us this morning. the idea is that if i choose to be unvaccinated, how sick is sick when i get the delta variant? what is the level of sick we should expect? andrew: the data is rolling in now that the delta variant is causing disease primarily in unvaccinated populations and the disease it is showing seems to be a bit more severe than the disease we saw in similar age groups at the beginning of the pandemic. if you are unvaccinated, the risk from the delta variant is greater of infection and there will be a greater increase of severe disease from infection. there is nothing good about being unvaccinated when you think about the delta variant. tom: where are we on the vaccination process? i saw age over 12 vaccinated. are you pleased? andrew: i would love to see these vaccination rights get much higher than they are right now. we reached a stage where many of the people who are vaccinated now are obviously protected from disease. we have not reached those levels that give us a population-based benefit.

with us. what did not happen this week, the 10 year yield did absolutely nothing if i look back one week. jonathan: from friday to friday, yes, but a lot in between. i've talked about the range from 1.12%, the lows on tuesday, to 1.30% the highs. that speaks to exec leave with you and i were talking about, the lack of consensus, the lack of a narrative, a story we can all agree on about the future. i think that has broken down a fair bit over the last several months. tom: lisa abramowicz scheduled to return from monday. that is up in the air. taylor riggs with us this morning. your observation on the earnings dynamic that you tear apart every afternoon on "the close." taylor: and km partners said it is a beat and a raise kind of day. we talked about this earlier, the clarity we are continuing to get from ceo's. you sought not only yesterday morning, yesterday night, further perhaps this morning of the strong forward guidance we continue to get into this year. i would air to say margins may not

jp morgan behind us, goldman in front of us. alongside us to break down these members in just a moment -- these numbers in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. white house officials are considering a digital trade agreement as a way to counter china and asia the proposed deal could cover companies -- could cover countries such as china, japan, australia, and singapore. it includes rules of use of data and trade facilitation area the biden administration reportedly will warn american come news of the risks of operating in hong kong. according to the financial times, those risks include china's ability to gain access to data that foreign companies store there. another one of the concerns is a new law that lets beijing impose sanctions on anyone that enables foreign penalties to be implement it against chinese groups. prime minister boris johnson's decision to ease coronavirus restrictions in england has led to growing fear and calls for action. doctors warned that the fresh toll of

card use in the u.s. sword 36% -- card use in the u.s. soared 36% and purchase volume climbed to $1.47 trillion. the idea of the consumer is strong. with more supplies chain constraints and getting inventory holding up some of the growth, but to me as far as the consumer goes they have a lot of money and they are spending it. tom: there will be a second look. i agree with a lot of the people , jon ferro mentioning neil dutta earlier. let's focus on where we are right now. dare i say there is a huge mystery to q4. nobody has a clue. jonathan: a lot of this has to do with how quickly some of the frictions get evened out. corporation saying it could be a long runway. these are the push and pull effects. tom: the news through the day on the pandemic and on masks. part of the conversation, "balance of power" at 12:00 noon with the senator from florida, rick scott. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still no

amber desousa joins us from john hopkins. she is definitive in net cancer and also infectious disease, a terrific career in medical research. amber, when someone mentions the delta strain, he comes down to every conversation is the infectious reality. do you have an understanding of how communicable the delta variant is? >> i haven't seen data to tell us exactly what the reproductive rate is, which is how many people each infected person is running into, but we know that the proportions of people who are covered positive that have this variant is increasing rapidly, which tells us it is definitely more infectious than the other strains. tom: looking at the exponential realities bacteria and viruses, where does delta fit in? is it a normal lung function, or is there something -- log function or is there something different to it? >> it is within the normal spectrum. this is what infectious diseases do. the more we allow an infectious disease to spread, we know it will mutate, and some of the mutations will be more transmissibl

and what the bond market is telling us. the bond market is telling us we have a short window for growth for the fed crushes both right tail inflation outcomes and right tail growth outcomes. executives are telling us that it seems like we have a pretty long run my -- long runway for above trend activity to continue. you might start to get hints of this in the gdp report released later this morning, just the inventory rebuild process is going to be absolutely massive and persistent. essentially, shortages are what are paving the way for having a longer runway for growth, because you need to make the capex to unlock more production downstream. you need production downstream to meet demand. all companies are saying is that we need to do this, but we understand this is going to take a very long time. it is so interesting to see companies that have rebuilt inventories to a certain extent are saying that this is our competitive advantage. this is the way we can keep growing market share and topline , not building inventories as a

jonathan: you will be proud of us. we talked about this all last week, and i think it is a really important topic to discuss because in september, the additional unemployment insurance expires, and many people want is by the return to school to develop. this is really important for how the supply side of the economy develops. i anticipate this will be a massive part of the discussion at the fed. lisa: this is a big part of why wall street banks have picked september as the time to get back to the office. everyone is looking to that key september date to figure out what the new normal looks like. jonathan: equity futures down 11 on the s&p. a turnaround from where we were a couple of hours ago. in the bond market, yields lower just a little bit in the last 30 minutes or so. we are down to 1.2395%. your euro just a touch stronger. euro-dollar positive 0.4%. lisa: there's a question of how much reaction the move to the suburbs has. new-home sales last month unexpectedly declined based on how high the prices were. now the

the largest gains may be behind us. >> almost everything has told us we are in a regime shift. we are going to see growth decelerate and inflation decelerate. >> we are going to see deceleration in growth, that's for sure, but i think the u.s. consumer will stay quite resilient. >> you are going to have a push higher for the remainder of the year. >> you are not going to see deceleration until sometime enter next year. there is still plenty of room for the economy to run. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we are ending the week with a lift. from new york city, without -- -- for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. lisa back with us on monday. your market on the s&p advancing 0.5%. three-day winning streak into friday. we could add some links to it. tom: the 10 year yield, 1.29%. but equities have a mind of their own. i think taylor is better at this than i am. earnings are speaking volumes. jonathan: amex with numbers right

tom: some of us went to sleep last night. jonathan: we are not going to football talk just yet. 4350 on your s&p 500. yields coming two or three basis points. we will touch on europe later in the hour. your euro negative 2/10 of 1%. lisa: thank you for setting me up saying the week starts tomorrow. a rather slow day. there are a couple of really important things we will be watching. boris johnson is expected to confirm the end covert restrictions from july 19. he announced this last week. i find this interesting because there is a growing concern, it's kind of unclear what these are. is it too loose given the fact the delta variant keeps picking up. it comes in the backdrop of the cases rising to levels not seen in months. how big of a concern is that going to be for him. i'm doing this just for you, of the u.s. will sell in 10's. looking at the internal dynamics of demand and supply, the idea is have we seen pico growth concerns. do we see that bid continue to come in. yields crying to lower with a strong bid for the securit

to keep using these emergency use authorization's. we should approve these vaccines. kailey: we are waiting to see if there will be emergency use authorization for children under 12. do you expect that and the future as we get closer to the new school year? andy: absolutely. i expect that the mrna data, the vaccine data from pfizer and moderna is going to show really good efficacy in those younger populations. those children in schools are going to be the critical thing right now as we think about the fall. we expect to see a bit of a surge in the fall anyway as people move more indoors and schools are going to be an environment where the virus spread could be maximized. it is great to see the data showing that kids are less susceptible to severe disease, but they are not resistant to disease so we have to think about protecting those populations, especially if we are going to put them in situations where virus spread is going to be optimal. jonathan: what would it take for you to endorse the position of individual responsibility and

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bob doll with us. from your perspective, how difficult is it to tell a client we don't own them, we don't own those names? bob: i would be in a disappointed situation if i had to do my client that. thankfully we do. but the question is what happens for here. you have all been alluding to it. we have amazing corporate earnings in the second quarter, but almost definitionally, and the back half of this year, market growth is going to decelerate. markets love when markets accelerate, not so much decelerate. i think it is just not a smooth glide, not a straight up. it is bumpy from here. tom: at crossmark, the game is to extrapolate out five years, 10 years. give me the courage of robert doll right now. how far out are you looking to believe in the extrapolation of apple, amazon, and for that matter, mcdonald's? robert: the companies are adapting, to use the word you have been using so far this morning. that is good news. the problem is what happens to the valuation, the multiples, as interest rates creep

tom: see how he slams us by calling us talking heads? nice job. if we look to the jobs report, we tear it apart, part of it is wages. i know wages and burgeoning inflation is a real wage. how long do we sustain a negative inflation-adjusted wage? carl: i think we will sustain that into the back half of the year. the and warehouse workers that got a $15 minimum this year will have a improvement in their immediate situation but that is eroding away after adjusting for inflation. jonathan: can we get to the mystery chart the population ratio has flattened out and hasn't improved with the pace a lot of people wanted to see. we are pretty much where we were . what explains that for you, carl? carl: we have to be not in the thinking of that. whether it is at home learning, lingering concerns over the public health issues, also perhaps some discouraged workers in specific industries. it is a confluence of factors, a huge collapse and participation and that can be mended. maybe there is some retirement to factor in. what is interesting is we heard from th

lisa back with us on monday. here's the price action going into that ecb rate decision in about 20 minutes. your equity market looks like this. update on the s&p, advancing almost 0.2%. yields higher by almost a full basis point, just through 1.30% earlier. 1.2983% now. euro-dollar unchanged at $1.1790 going into that ecb decision. the debate in europe different to the debate here. paul donovan of ubs, always a must-read with his daily update. here's two lines from him that get your attention. "president biden said car prices were returning to pre-pandemic levels, which is not true. mitch mcconnell said inflation was driving the cost of everything through the roof which is not true." there's a lot of things happening on d.c. in this front does not true. tom: what is true is the 2022 primaries beckon. jonathan: yep. tom: i can't emphasize enough that they are already counting the of political shifts in the house and the senate, and that is what is true in washington as well. let's get an update on this from jack f

secretary buttigieg will be joining us, though. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> if you have confidence in the economic outlook, equities are usually the best place to be. >> pure reopening trade that some of the covid sentiment sectors have a harder summer than people were hoping for. >> that abroad acceleration is getting shifted from the u.s. >> we just all focus a bit more on fiscal policy. >> the fed will actually end up doing what it has to do but it may be a little bit late. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." with tom

james o'sullivan joins us. he has been extremely good at blinking market economics and what it -- at linking market economics and what it means for the markets. we are thrilled jim o'sullivan joins us. i want to talk about the signaling process you see out there. as the market signaling the fed or is the fed signaling the markets? james: it is a good question and we are puzzled by the rally in the bond market of last couple of months. for the most part the u.s. economy seems to be recovering fairly well. we just saw 850,000 increase in payrolls last week. it is inevitable that the boost from reopening and fiscal stimulus will fade. we do not expect to see 7% or 8% growth indefinitely. inevitably there will be fading. the economy seems to still be pretty strong. it is a puzzle that the bond market has rallied as much as it has. tom: it has rallied because of price up. i do not want you to go in full fixed income mode. does it concern you to see the oddities in the very short term market? link that to what our li

, not behind us. tom: different opinions out there, that's what makes the market go. i am going to scientifically say we are 2/3 of the way back from the agony of a few days ago. i'm watching the same thing i was watching and preparing for six weeks ago, which is earnings reports. j&j this morning, they up the forecast. jonathan: the outlook for coca-cola better, too. i'm looking at the rates market, looking at treasuries, and witnessing the consensus view totally break down. the last 24 hours was a contested example of that, just capturing the degree of uncertainty that still exists and persists. one point what he 5% this morning on tens -- 1.25% this morning on tens. the market living its own life. tom: i am going to suggest uncertainty is what drives the market. coca-cola, which i haven't even looked at yet. but all of these individual stories sum up to corporate america adapting to the cards they are dealt. jonathan: verizon doing the same thing as well. tom: in the banner, organic revenue, which

jonathan: join us now is -- joining us now is christopher marangi. it is good to catch up. pricing power is a big focus right now. is it a big focus for you? christopher: absolutely. it always is. pricing power is what a lot of fundamental investors like us look for. it is nice to have a mark on those markets. it is a must have in an inflationary environment. lisa: how do you read the bond market reaction to yesterday's cpi friend even though a lot of people were saying we are in a new regime of three-month inflation that is the highest going back for decades versus it is just transitory? christopher: it is a puzzle. i don't understand it myself. this is more than transitory. so far, the market is bleeding. chairman powell has a difficult job. he has to walk the line between retaining his credibility and helping to keep inflation expectations anchored because inflation expectations are very important here. once the toothpaste gets out of the bottle, it is difficult to put back. lisa: how do you use the bond market reaction in terms of your stock picks? can you continue with

lisa: what is this telling us? can we get any single, or is this any signal, or is -- any signal, or is this just the fed sticking its them on the market? we get durable goods orders for the month of june. there could be weakness in other sectors. to the degree that there is, it is due to supply shortages, labor shortages -- supply disruptions, labor shortages, and other things. pointing out the positive that could potentially be in that data. 10:00 a.m., we get july consumer data. this is going to be a compelling read of people's confidence getting jobs. there continues to be friction here with respect to the participation rate. highly suppressed relished to where we were pre-pandemic -- suppressed relative to where we were pre-pandemic. there were thoughts that it was due to unemployment benefits, due to childcare. what is it, and is it giving consumers pause? we are getting apple, alphabet, microsoft all coming out. the key issue is the forward projection, but also what their view is on salaries, on supply chain

thank you for being with us. steven ricchiuto on the latest data and the testimony we are set to hear from chairman powell in several hours. here is the price action in response to that. yields in four basis points. equities doing ok. up one third of 1% on the s&p to 43.75. the nasdaq 100 up almost 100 points. held down by what is happening in the bond market. prices for the factory are flying, prices for the consumer are flying. there is a believe some of this is temporary. the question we have to ask, does it overwhelm the recovery? that is the big debate for this bond market, with yields in five basis points. lisa: to be more nuanced, does this overcome the recovery for the lower income households that will suffer more with respect to the prices and increasing a proportion of their income. you have to wonder what the bond market is saying. tom pointed out the real yields, the fact we are seeing more than a -1% real yield and yields remained low because of the fed, but they do see inflation ticking higher. tom:

willpower with us with baird -- will power with us with baird. he shows you his belief in his track record from another time. this is a guy who, just before covid, was outperform on 90. you sustain your outperform today. simply, can beijing upset the apple cart? can beijing, all of this in china, derail your outperform? will: that is a good question. good morning. thanks as always for having me. china is always a big wildcard. at least at this point, it has still been a big driver of apple's results, and we are not expecting that to change near-term, but it is something we keep an eye on with respect to other companies. but apple has been able to navigate that market. that is just one piece of the puzzle for apple as you think about the strength we expect this quarter. jonathan: the guide to apple over the last decade is just to keep buying it. it is complex on one friend, and i have always struggled with it. -- on one front, and i have always struggled with it. what kind of multiple do you put on something like apple? william: it is a great ques

thanks for being with us ahead of the ecb decision. katrina dudley of franklin mutual, a portfolio manager. look at the chart right here of the italian 10 year. 67 basis points. at the height of the year, what we saw was something north of 1%. what the fed said and what the ecb did. the federal reserve said this was a validation of a better outlook not just for the u.s. economy, but for the global economy. that is what they said about the high yields on treasuries. what the ecb did was start talking about wrapping up the pace of purchases in the near term. not the overall envelope, but the pace of purchases because they were not comfortable with where yields were going in europe. we talk so much about inflation mandates over at the ecb. they are forecasting that out still. what really matters is financial conditions in the periphery, for the whole of europe, and you will hear that again and again in the news conference in a couple of hours. tom: i would go even further to the desire for economic growth and to sustain it, which goes ove

define emergency for us because that will give us an idea of when this thing has to be shut down, and then we have to have a conversation about what replaces it. tom: taylor, you're the only when i know who has read all 1840 pages of the posey, and it comes down to real yield versus inflation dynamics. taylor: i don't how you get higher inflation expectations and negative real yield that takes you further on the 10 year to a -1.1%, which is what we got earlier this week you'd you think about how that impacts financial conditions, and then you take a look at 1.23% on the 10 year, and what foreign buyers , what technicals, what pension funds are buying that? every time you think you are going to get higher, you get buyers into this market enticed by a higher yield. tom: this is a real deal with the real yield at -1.12%. there are separations, there are nuances in the bond market we are all trying to glean. jonathan: we saw this at the end of august last year, deep into summer, when we started to see that massive nasdaq outperformance and big tech names flying. use all real yields plunge

tom keene back with us on monday. joining us this morning, kailey leinz. your equity market, 4360 on the s&p. retail sales 90 minutes away. lisa: more of a sense of how people are spending. how much that is affecting people as they are going out and how much the delta variant is slowing things down. jonathan: we've been waiting for the advisory from this administration on doing this is in hong kong. lisa: this has been a steady drumbeat. it has been several weeks of the biden administration taking a particularly hard line against china. you wonder at what this will affect chinese businesses, at what point it will affect u.s. businesses that do a lot of transactions. we spoke with marriott's chief executive officer this week. he said we are monitoring it. basically, it won't affect us that much. really? [laughter] jonathan: is this a corporation usa, or is it beijing? kailey: waiting to see what, if anything, we get from beijing because this just continues to be a ramping up of tensions and rhetoric, of shots back and forth across the bow. i question whethe

thank you so much for joining us. john and lisa have a wide -- jon and lisa have a wide set of questions. in august 2021, what are we going to in this next round of wearing or not wearing a mask? joshua: it is probably not a uniform recommendation given that vaccination aries so much across the -- varies so much across the country. where there is low vaccination rate and the virus is very common, it will probably make sense for people to put masks on indoors. i it is just to protect people until we can beat the virus back again. tom: what is the efficacy of a federal approach versus every city,, every town, every zip code for themselves? joshua: there is a middle ground here where the cdc gives guidelines. this is where you should seriously consider putting in place a mask requirement. based on the condition of the pandemic and each area, i think that would be a good idea. lisa: we are seeing protests around the world saying enough is enough. why should we live our lives in fear? we should just move on. how much do yo

steve major, hsbc global head of fixed income research, joins us. i'm pleased to say he's going to be with us for the next 5, 10 minutes. i want to start there, was a provocative question. do you think we may have already seen the peak in this yield curve for the cycle? steven: i think we saw the peak of yields at the end of march, jon. what's happened since then is the market just repricing to the reality that rates aren't going up anytime soon. to me, i wonder what has happened to the 2% and above consensus forecast because to me , that wasn't particularly robust in the first place. so i think there could be a scrambling of people's forecasts as you see people covering their shorts. so i would go for 1%. tom: we've got an awful large audience of listeners and viewers that don't have a cfa. they didn't study like you did. they are going, wait a minute, debt up ever higher, and yields continue to fall. how can that be? steven: first of all, the last 20 years have seen that association of higher debt and lower yield in place. of course, the, nation i

they used the word meetings, plural. if it is several months of data they need to make a decision on tapering. jay: i think so. but i think the first thing you're going to do is the statement. you could see this as we go forward. i really don't expect to see a formal announcement of this going until later. i think although they are starting to hit in that direction, until we see the tapering begin, i think we are looking at this later this year and arguably early next year. kailey: details matter. there's a question of once they start tapering, does this necessarily mean rate hikes within 12 months. how important is it, in your view, for the fed to distinguish these two measures? to say we can be flexible in how taper we sting -- how we taper the stimulus and what that means for hikes down the line. jay: i think most market participants understand the distinction. if you go back, there's an interesting playbook. this is eight years ago or nine years ago. they ended this at 2014. i still believe we are a long way away fro

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he will give us perspective on technology. right now, this is a joy, because he is retired from new york university, where he provided value. he is writing a book that will do better than good, the movie rights have already been sold. i want to go right to the heart of it. you say it differently, we have debt on top of it. you are looking at the debt crisis. is it here? >> it is on its way here. i agree with larry summers and people who are worried. it could lead to inflation. i have a second worry and a third worry. demand becoming expensive. unemployment benefits, -- increase the cost of production and fiscal policy not only with inflation. a combination of inflation and recession like we had in the 1970's. compared to the 1970's, much higher. the debt crisis, we could have inflation of the 1970's. tom: i want to go back to the old world. i want to go back to venice, when jonathan ferro's ancestors were doing battle with huge -- jonathan: for the record, they were in sicily. carry on. tom: we have seen over time, historic ch