lisa back with us next week. kailey leinz with us this morning. tom: i don't think she's on crete. i don't know where she is. this is a really important market. bitcoin craters, and we are going to go to that on gold and a moment. this market speaks volumes, and i need to say in the last 60 minutes, there's been a deterioration in the tape. jonathan: a 1.24% handle on tends, -- on tens, down four points. tom: the real yield comes in as well. what i would start with is the dollar rally, as you mentioned earlier, is of a different character than we have seen two times before. jonathan: this is risk aversion. we will talk about that. the united states to attribute the microsoft hack to the chinese government. kailey: it is what seems like a series of escalations. we have them attribute in be hacked to the chinese government today. on friday we had joe biden issuing a warning to u.s. companies about doing business in hong kong. was that really a warning to u.s. companies, or an indirect warning to beijing? it seems like tensions between the two largest economies in the world are not us

they used the word meetings, plural. if it is several months of data they need to make a decision on tapering. jay: i think so. but i think the first thing you're going to do is the statement. you could see this as we go forward. i really don't expect to see a formal announcement of this going until later. i think although they are starting to hit in that direction, until we see the tapering begin, i think we are looking at this later this year and arguably early next year. kailey: details matter. there's a question of once they start tapering, does this necessarily mean rate hikes within 12 months. how important is it, in your view, for the fed to distinguish these two measures? to say we can be flexible in how taper we sting -- how we taper the stimulus and what that means for hikes down the line. jay: i think most market participants understand the distinction. if you go back, there's an interesting playbook. this is eight years ago or nine years ago. they ended this at 2014. i still believe we are a long way away fro

lisa abramowicz will be back with us on monday. romaine bostick with us this morning. it is a readout from the white house the gets your attention. an executive order on promoting competition in the american economy. tom: i'm going to get right to this, there's a magical thing in western massachusetts every weekend, the great barrington farmers market. that 72 point executive order is a complaint of the administration over fair pricing and boosting farmers markets. you've got to be kidding me. president biden is going to somehow adjust the great barrington farmers market? jonathan: i've got no idea if that is achievable. the broad strokes are clear, they don't like the broad consolidation that has taken place in this economy. over 70% of industries of the a was economy. they worry it has been pushing down wages and pushing up prices, and they want to do something about it. tom: a major shout out right now to catherine mann of m.i.t. and citigroup, now vetted by the bank of england. dr. mann at least three years ago gave out a primal scream over the consolidation of ame

what can you tell us about that? tom: ride-hailing is one of these businesses that has been allowed to flourish in china the last few years. there have been times regulators have stepped in to ensure that drivers have certain credentials , the vehicles meet certain requirements, but up until at least the last few weeks, they have been relatively free to pursue rapid growth across the country. didi has almost market dominance in china. it dominates the market is by far the biggest share, but there has been concerned about the treatment of drivers, concern about safety in passengers, but also, it comes back to this point about data security and how they are holding this data, what they are doing with it. we know local officials have been using didi more regularly since the anticorruption campaigns in china about what possibly security servers in the u.s. may be able to access, sort jazz -- access, such as the movement of chinese government officials. but it is movement around the sector that has up until now been given

stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. oil jumped to the highest price in more than six years today after a bitter fight between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates blocked a supply increase and plunged the willison into crisis -- plunge the coalition into crisis. the coming days will if it is as destructive as last year's price war. there is a heavy dose of skepticism. it's good news for pubs and nightclubs, but there's also the issue of liabilities surrounding infection in the work base. president biden and russia's vladimir putin face a test over agreement in. president biden asked to keep a flowing into syria. that will require the two nations and other members of the united nations security council to reach agreement. the cost of renting a home is soaring in sitting across -- in cities across the u.s. the median national rent climbed 9.2% the first half of 2021, squeezing the finances of low income households and posing a threat to the id

public health likes to use voluntary measures. this was sort of an aberration which happened during covid-19. jonathan: dr. a mischa delta -- it feels like we are taking a small step backward on several fronts. the path toward reopening and going back to work. that was the next big step. i wonder what happens with the banks here on wall street. it will be interesting to see if they change things. tom: it's the level of illness from this delta variant and how this plays into back to school. there's other cases like that in process right now. what about the delta valiant? jonathan: i had some money people talk about stay-at-home stocks and reopening stops -- stocks. kailey: it's basically at the same level after what we saw. the conversation has moved from fear about inflation matches back to straight up growth fears and are we going to slow. jonathan: yesterday was ugly. your equity market up 18 points on the s&p. coming up, the big bull on wall street. looking for 4800 year-end on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) ba

joining us on the asphalt commonly called stonehenge, our next guest joins us. july 4 is always hugely symbolic for senators and representatives. they go home, kiss babies, etc. what's their constituents? >> i think the biggest -- one of the biggest worries is twofold, one is jobs, given we will have the jobs report today, are enough people getting back into the labor force? some states are already taking away some of the supplemental unemployment benefits because of that. some shades and progressives are worried about childcare. especially women on the sidelines of this job recovery because they cannot get the job care. and second, there was a covid briefing and the cdc is incredibly more worried about the delta variant that started from india. the southwest and midwest, that is a key concern for a lot of counties that do not have the vaccine. tom: i'm so glad you bring this up because this is front and center. we talked to a representative at job, -- john hopkins. this is a real deal for los angeles this fourth of july weekend. annmarie: it certainly is. i was

jp morgan behind us. goldman sachs just in front of us. tom: it's a different bank. i think there is too much made about their similarities. it will be interesting to see if they make any comments about what they've got in return to office. they certainly made a lot of headlines there. i just really want to emphasize these ratios of their balance sheet go so far beyond the swiss glory of decades ago. it's like we've imported swiss bank balance sheets into america. jonathan: we are negative across the board by a little more than 1%. just a touch softer going into numbers. i come out about every minutes time. your equity market coming into tuesday at all-time highs. goldman is next and then it's cpi in america with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ "me and you" by barry louis polisar ] ♪ me and you just singing on the train ♪ ♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪ ♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me

goldman sachs, let us not count them out on m&a. they have not done anything big yet, at their stock is pushing $400 and a much different calculus then it was not too long ago at $200. have a stronger currency and i think that gives you more flexibility to do mna, and they have a lot of capital that they have built into the system. they were not buying back stocks, and as we were talking about a number of growth initiatives particularly in consumer and wealth that also with an active management, and i would expect goldman to be the equivalent, but that is the key thing. goldman has so many areas that are newer and starting from a smaller base, so that is why we are more optimistic over the next couple of years because these newburgh roshan -- growth initiatives are small but very significant. i think the student loan business over the next 10 years could be one third or more of their overall business. jonathan: you alluded to that stronger currency, the stock is up by more than 40%. talk to me about the way you think they would be b

tell us what else you see. jonathan: positive two points on the s&p, posited by 0.05% into the premarket. in the fx market, euro slightly negative. it is one of those snoozy mornings i had of a fed conference -- mornings i had a fed conference later. tom: of course, what to do with the money? let's start with the bond market. how can i own bonds with yields this low? >> that is the question many investors have been asking, and we have been working with our clients to ensure that the old 60/40 is not the new 60/40. i think you have to include some alternatives if you are a qualified purchaser or credit investor on the yield options that are available in some of the illiquid markets. you are going to have more opportunity then you had any traditional market. that doesn't mean bonds as part of an asset allocation are going away. high quality, intermediate duration municipals are still positive this year. the default rates in that asset class remain very low. balance sheet's and rainy day funds have held up. we wou

jonathan: cases are on the up, let us use the u.k. is a case study. is there anything to worry about as far as deaths and hospitalizations are concerned? dr. hansoti: we found that countries with higher vaccination rates, hospitalizations are lower. even though vaccinated people can get the delta variant and it is reported to be more dangerous, if you are vaccinated your diseases likely to be less severe. many countries have successively vaccinated the elderly, those that are immuno compromise, transplant patients and those at severe risk. romaine: this is not totally unexpected even when we started down this path of vaccinations, there was a lot of talk about new variants popping up in the need to reformulate some of these vaccines. what do we know about the process for doing that? dr. hansoti: so, the vaccines are currently and constantly being evaluated and trying to identify the genomic sequencing. the sequencing is making sure that the vaccine mrna matches the mutations. it is a process, but we know how to do this, we do it every single year with

i used these models as a starting point. i don't use them as gospel. i use them to give me some direction. are we undervalued, fairly valued, overvalued? once we have that general sense of direction, what could go wrong, and what could go right? as we take a look at things now, the things that could go wrong include commodity prices. we have seen what opec has done. this could be more of a problem for markets outside the united states, so in the u.s., commodity prices are actually fairly small component of our total cost. the second thing that i am perhaps even more worried about has to do with public health. we have had these incredible vaccines, extraordinarily effective, and now we are bumping into problems with regard to distribution. in the united states, we think this will be a regional issue rather than a nationwide, but if you take a look at the reopening of places like europe, it is much more problematic. the distribution in europe of the mrna vaccine really has been lagging. it is one of the reasons that the gdp expectations in continental eu

tom keene is back with us next week. with us now is kailey leinz. we advance a little more than 0.1%. 30 minutes away from retail sales. lisa: the key question in my mind, what data matters? does this data actually have significance that other data points including much higher-than-expected prints does not? jonathan: and how much tolerance is there for higher prices that are being passed on to the end consumer? lisa: i think that is a really key point. how much does the inflation we have seen so far lead to slower growth longer-term? we have seen this with lumber prices. with high prices, people buy less of it. how much of that day we see in the data comes out in 30 minutes? jonathan: have we seen scarcity on output? that's one to watch, too. lisa: how much are goods purchases declining simply because they are not the goods available? someone put out a photograph of dick's sporting goods, looking for a kayak, and there were just empty shelves. jonathan: and trying to find people to get out of that kayak and go to work, that may be an issue. [laughte

jonathan: you will be proud of us. we talked about this all last week, and i think it is a really important topic to discuss because in september, the additional unemployment insurance expires, and many people want is by the return to school to develop. this is really important for how the supply side of the economy develops. i anticipate this will be a massive part of the discussion at the fed. lisa: this is a big part of why wall street banks have picked september as the time to get back to the office. everyone is looking to that key september date to figure out what the new normal looks like. jonathan: equity futures down 11 on the s&p. a turnaround from where we were a couple of hours ago. in the bond market, yields lower just a little bit in the last 30 minutes or so. we are down to 1.2395%. your euro just a touch stronger. euro-dollar positive 0.4%. lisa: there's a question of how much reaction the move to the suburbs has. new-home sales last month unexpectedly declined based on how high the prices were. now the

thrilled we could join us -- thrilled he could join us this morning. the idea is that if i choose to be unvaccinated, how sick is sick when i get the delta variant? what is the level of sick we should expect? andrew: the data is rolling in now that the delta variant is causing disease primarily in unvaccinated populations and the disease it is showing seems to be a bit more severe than the disease we saw in similar age groups at the beginning of the pandemic. if you are unvaccinated, the risk from the delta variant is greater of infection and there will be a greater increase of severe disease from infection. there is nothing good about being unvaccinated when you think about the delta variant. tom: where are we on the vaccination process? i saw age over 12 vaccinated. are you pleased? andrew: i would love to see these vaccination rights get much higher than they are right now. we reached a stage where many of the people who are vaccinated now are obviously protected from disease. we have not reached those levels that give us a population-based benefit.

thank you for being with us. steven ricchiuto on the latest data and the testimony we are set to hear from chairman powell in several hours. here is the price action in response to that. yields in four basis points. equities doing ok. up one third of 1% on the s&p to 43.75. the nasdaq 100 up almost 100 points. held down by what is happening in the bond market. prices for the factory are flying, prices for the consumer are flying. there is a believe some of this is temporary. the question we have to ask, does it overwhelm the recovery? that is the big debate for this bond market, with yields in five basis points. lisa: to be more nuanced, does this overcome the recovery for the lower income households that will suffer more with respect to the prices and increasing a proportion of their income. you have to wonder what the bond market is saying. tom pointed out the real yields, the fact we are seeing more than a -1% real yield and yields remained low because of the fed, but they do see inflation ticking higher. tom:

lisa back with us on monday. here's the price action going into that ecb rate decision in about 20 minutes. your equity market looks like this. update on the s&p, advancing almost 0.2%. yields higher by almost a full basis point, just through 1.30% earlier. 1.2983% now. euro-dollar unchanged at $1.1790 going into that ecb decision. the debate in europe different to the debate here. paul donovan of ubs, always a must-read with his daily update. here's two lines from him that get your attention. "president biden said car prices were returning to pre-pandemic levels, which is not true. mitch mcconnell said inflation was driving the cost of everything through the roof which is not true." there's a lot of things happening on d.c. in this front does not true. tom: what is true is the 2022 primaries beckon. jonathan: yep. tom: i can't emphasize enough that they are already counting the of political shifts in the house and the senate, and that is what is true in washington as well. let's get an update on this from jack f

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thanks for being with us ahead of the ecb decision. katrina dudley of franklin mutual, a portfolio manager. look at the chart right here of the italian 10 year. 67 basis points. at the height of the year, what we saw was something north of 1%. what the fed said and what the ecb did. the federal reserve said this was a validation of a better outlook not just for the u.s. economy, but for the global economy. that is what they said about the high yields on treasuries. what the ecb did was start talking about wrapping up the pace of purchases in the near term. not the overall envelope, but the pace of purchases because they were not comfortable with where yields were going in europe. we talk so much about inflation mandates over at the ecb. they are forecasting that out still. what really matters is financial conditions in the periphery, for the whole of europe, and you will hear that again and again in the news conference in a couple of hours. tom: i would go even further to the desire for economic growth and to sustain it, which goes ove

the largest gains may be behind us. >> almost everything has told us we are in a regime shift. we are going to see growth decelerate and inflation decelerate. >> we are going to see deceleration in growth, that's for sure, but i think the u.s. consumer will stay quite resilient. >> you are going to have a push higher for the remainder of the year. >> you are not going to see deceleration until sometime enter next year. there is still plenty of room for the economy to run. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: we are ending the week with a lift. from new york city, without -- -- for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro, together with taylor riggs. lisa back with us on monday. your market on the s&p advancing 0.5%. three-day winning streak into friday. we could add some links to it. tom: the 10 year yield, 1.29%. but equities have a mind of their own. i think taylor is better at this than i am. earnings are speaking volumes. jonathan: amex with numbers right

to keep using these emergency use authorization's. we should approve these vaccines. kailey: we are waiting to see if there will be emergency use authorization for children under 12. do you expect that and the future as we get closer to the new school year? andy: absolutely. i expect that the mrna data, the vaccine data from pfizer and moderna is going to show really good efficacy in those younger populations. those children in schools are going to be the critical thing right now as we think about the fall. we expect to see a bit of a surge in the fall anyway as people move more indoors and schools are going to be an environment where the virus spread could be maximized. it is great to see the data showing that kids are less susceptible to severe disease, but they are not resistant to disease so we have to think about protecting those populations, especially if we are going to put them in situations where virus spread is going to be optimal. jonathan: what would it take for you to endorse the position of individual responsibility and

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secretary buttigieg will be joining us, though. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> if you have confidence in the economic outlook, equities are usually the best place to be. >> pure reopening trade that some of the covid sentiment sectors have a harder summer than people were hoping for. >> that abroad acceleration is getting shifted from the u.s. >> we just all focus a bit more on fiscal policy. >> the fed will actually end up doing what it has to do but it may be a little bit late. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." with tom

willpower with us with baird -- will power with us with baird. he shows you his belief in his track record from another time. this is a guy who, just before covid, was outperform on 90. you sustain your outperform today. simply, can beijing upset the apple cart? can beijing, all of this in china, derail your outperform? will: that is a good question. good morning. thanks as always for having me. china is always a big wildcard. at least at this point, it has still been a big driver of apple's results, and we are not expecting that to change near-term, but it is something we keep an eye on with respect to other companies. but apple has been able to navigate that market. that is just one piece of the puzzle for apple as you think about the strength we expect this quarter. jonathan: the guide to apple over the last decade is just to keep buying it. it is complex on one friend, and i have always struggled with it. -- on one front, and i have always struggled with it. what kind of multiple do you put on something like apple? william: it is a great ques

thank you so much for joining us. john and lisa have a wide -- jon and lisa have a wide set of questions. in august 2021, what are we going to in this next round of wearing or not wearing a mask? joshua: it is probably not a uniform recommendation given that vaccination aries so much across the -- varies so much across the country. where there is low vaccination rate and the virus is very common, it will probably make sense for people to put masks on indoors. i it is just to protect people until we can beat the virus back again. tom: what is the efficacy of a federal approach versus every city,, every town, every zip code for themselves? joshua: there is a middle ground here where the cdc gives guidelines. this is where you should seriously consider putting in place a mask requirement. based on the condition of the pandemic and each area, i think that would be a good idea. lisa: we are seeing protests around the world saying enough is enough. why should we live our lives in fear? we should just move on. how much do yo

the three of us weight with bated breath. megan: what i am looking at is everything economics that does not work anymore. there are a number of examples. one that is relevant now is how inflation works. that is what everybody is talking about ian economics. -- in economics. if you're an old school economics you look at the output gap we are trying to fill with the stimulus. you worry about overheating the economy and generating inflation. we are seeing significant inflation. that was predictable. the question is will it last. if you think about the world as a more complex system, not just a single potential growth rate, the point of filling the output gap is little bit irrelevant. the fed policy is to fundamentally prevent scarring from lasting. or lift us to a higher equilibrium and then you are not worried about inflation. tom: your work at harvard is the ambiguity we are presented with. every idea can cut this way or that way. what you do with the ambiguity of a boom u.s. economy and a slower global economy. how does that

tom keene back with us on monday. joining us this morning, kailey leinz. your equity market, 4360 on the s&p. retail sales 90 minutes away. lisa: more of a sense of how people are spending. how much that is affecting people as they are going out and how much the delta variant is slowing things down. jonathan: we've been waiting for the advisory from this administration on doing this is in hong kong. lisa: this has been a steady drumbeat. it has been several weeks of the biden administration taking a particularly hard line against china. you wonder at what this will affect chinese businesses, at what point it will affect u.s. businesses that do a lot of transactions. we spoke with marriott's chief executive officer this week. he said we are monitoring it. basically, it won't affect us that much. really? [laughter] jonathan: is this a corporation usa, or is it beijing? kailey: waiting to see what, if anything, we get from beijing because this just continues to be a ramping up of tensions and rhetoric, of shots back and forth across the bow. i question whethe

thank you for joining us. for those tuning in, i will give you the information and you can do whatever you like with it. this is the stock move for didi global. it is positive a little more than 13%, pushing higher to the ipo price -- pushing forward to $10 to $12, earlier $14. didi is considering going private to placate authorities in china encompassing investors for losses incurred since the company listed in late june. reuters moments ago and the stock turns run on this headline, according to reuters, didi, the rumor it goes private is not true. tom: listening to authorities, their basic take is, you know what? the government is in charge. the government is making the decisions. i saw overnight someone got an 18 year sentence, some executive and china. this is serious stuff with serious consequences. jon: we are getting something from the company themselves. they say the privatization report is not true. so that is what comes from the company. we have had the reporting from dow jones. this is the direct li

he will give us perspective on technology. right now, this is a joy, because he is retired from new york university, where he provided value. he is writing a book that will do better than good, the movie rights have already been sold. i want to go right to the heart of it. you say it differently, we have debt on top of it. you are looking at the debt crisis. is it here? >> it is on its way here. i agree with larry summers and people who are worried. it could lead to inflation. i have a second worry and a third worry. demand becoming expensive. unemployment benefits, -- increase the cost of production and fiscal policy not only with inflation. a combination of inflation and recession like we had in the 1970's. compared to the 1970's, much higher. the debt crisis, we could have inflation of the 1970's. tom: i want to go back to the old world. i want to go back to venice, when jonathan ferro's ancestors were doing battle with huge -- jonathan: for the record, they were in sicily. carry on. tom: we have seen over time, historic ch

chris: really what surprises us is rates. we would not expect when you look at generational gdp that you had real races of other people. many of these buddies are strictly a duration play, so you're going to go down and these things are going to happen before. we look back to the end of may, but what hasn't outperformed? staples and utilities, things traditionally tied to rates. we find it very funny that this is going on. you're right, you hit on a key question or narrative we are talking about. many people are talking about the deceleration, and that is what they are focused on, and we don't think the deceleration will be as fast as many expect. jonathan: what do you need right now? do you need rates to go lower or higher? chris: we need rates not to go lower. we need to realize that many corporations have done a good job defending margins. we need to hear that pricing power is still out there, and we need to hear that demand is if not inelastic, but the individual is the price taker and the price buyer. tom: you talk about

lisa: what is this telling us? can we get any single, or is this any signal, or is -- any signal, or is this just the fed sticking its them on the market? we get durable goods orders for the month of june. there could be weakness in other sectors. to the degree that there is, it is due to supply shortages, labor shortages -- supply disruptions, labor shortages, and other things. pointing out the positive that could potentially be in that data. 10:00 a.m., we get july consumer data. this is going to be a compelling read of people's confidence getting jobs. there continues to be friction here with respect to the participation rate. highly suppressed relished to where we were pre-pandemic -- suppressed relative to where we were pre-pandemic. there were thoughts that it was due to unemployment benefits, due to childcare. what is it, and is it giving consumers pause? we are getting apple, alphabet, microsoft all coming out. the key issue is the forward projection, but also what their view is on salaries, on supply chain

kenne back with us -- mr. keene back with us on monday. amazon stock down by almost 7% in the premarket. lisa: slowing sales going forward. channeling tom keene as part of his contract, he says that the pendulum, that is what we are facing today. in all honesty, that seems to be the trend, the idea that higher prices is leading to slower growth, and the idea that we are leading to peak growth in what follows, jan hatzius summed it up. how much does this weigh on a host of companies that were thought of as unstoppable? jonathan: gdp growth north of 5%, and we are having a conversation about stagflation. kailey: if you ask jan hatzius, going back down to 1.5% to 2% in the back have a 2022, but whether or not consumers are actually going to tolerate these higher prices come up that means for growth, but also for companies because we are seeing important in this earnings season is the ability to pass higher input costs onto those consumers. if consumers prove unwilling which is that going to mean for the margins of some of these big corporate?

jonathan: join us now is -- joining us now is christopher marangi. it is good to catch up. pricing power is a big focus right now. is it a big focus for you? christopher: absolutely. it always is. pricing power is what a lot of fundamental investors like us look for. it is nice to have a mark on those markets. it is a must have in an inflationary environment. lisa: how do you read the bond market reaction to yesterday's cpi friend even though a lot of people were saying we are in a new regime of three-month inflation that is the highest going back for decades versus it is just transitory? christopher: it is a puzzle. i don't understand it myself. this is more than transitory. so far, the market is bleeding. chairman powell has a difficult job. he has to walk the line between retaining his credibility and helping to keep inflation expectations anchored because inflation expectations are very important here. once the toothpaste gets out of the bottle, it is difficult to put back. lisa: how do you use the bond market reaction in terms of your stock picks? can you continue with

morgan stanley members behind us. your equity market taking a little dip lower, down 0.3% on the s&p, -13. yields come in on the tenure to 1.3257%. morgan stanley down by 1.59%. once again, another bank coming in a little bit lighter than expected on fixed income trading revenue. $1.7 billion the number. expectation for $1.9 billion. tom, we are down by 1.6%. tom: they cratered. what are they up in the last three years? jonathan: i think 30% year-to-date. they are doing ok. tom: right now, and the summary of what we have seen, alison williams of bloomberg intelligence. what i think is so important here is the view out. where are these institutions on july 15, 2026? alison: they are in great shape. it is really a solid quarter. we have seen most of the stoxx trade-off, but -- most of the stocks trade-off, but it is about expectations. 1% after a huge move is not something i would get overly upset about. we look at morgan stanley's results today, and the one thing people might be worried about is the retail trading nine

steve major, hsbc global head of fixed income research, joins us. i'm pleased to say he's going to be with us for the next 5, 10 minutes. i want to start there, was a provocative question. do you think we may have already seen the peak in this yield curve for the cycle? steven: i think we saw the peak of yields at the end of march, jon. what's happened since then is the market just repricing to the reality that rates aren't going up anytime soon. to me, i wonder what has happened to the 2% and above consensus forecast because to me , that wasn't particularly robust in the first place. so i think there could be a scrambling of people's forecasts as you see people covering their shorts. so i would go for 1%. tom: we've got an awful large audience of listeners and viewers that don't have a cfa. they didn't study like you did. they are going, wait a minute, debt up ever higher, and yields continue to fall. how can that be? steven: first of all, the last 20 years have seen that association of higher debt and lower yield in place. of course, the, nation i

lisa back with us this coming monday. going into the opening bell, 12 minutes away from jobless claims in america. and before we handed over to president lagarde with that news conference at the ecb, we will take a look at jobless claims. yields unchanged now. your euro slightly negative, -0.1%. we can call it -0.1 per five -- call it -0.15%. t -11 and 13 seconds. tom: we will go to tents of seconds, maybe a launch delay. with us, ira jersey, bloomberg intelligence. usually i go to the short term paper overnight, six months. not this time. let's go bigger, broader, may be a question president biden would ask. what are the foreigners doing, not saying, what are they doing with hans, notes, and bills -- with bonds, notes, and bills? ira: it seems like foreigners are a big reason we have seen treasury yields go significantly lower over the last couple of months. the way that we can ascertain that is not through data because unfortunately, we don't get a lot of the flow data for another couple of weeks, but what we do have is

joining us from the depths of eastern venice, maria tadeo joins us. what is so important to understand is you go down past the acclaimed restaurant and you go along the canal at the water, and you get over come in just a little bit further, is harry's bar. maria tadeo will get there today. within the celebration, what is actually getting accomplished at this meeting? maria: on the one hand, it is an interesting question because a lot of the ministers are very positive there will be a deal on taxation. they say there is nothing short of a tax revolution we are seeing. you see behind the scenes, ministers tell you there are a lot of issues pending. one is the 15%. we know for the irish a minimum corporate tax at that rate is very problematic. the french say they want to take it even higher. for the americans the fact the european union is going ahead at their own digital tax is problematic. all of this is happening in the context of coronavirus. this new wave taking hold in europe. a lot of smiles as well as pictures happening because it is a beautiful

amber desousa joins us from john hopkins. she is definitive in net cancer and also infectious disease, a terrific career in medical research. amber, when someone mentions the delta strain, he comes down to every conversation is the infectious reality. do you have an understanding of how communicable the delta variant is? >> i haven't seen data to tell us exactly what the reproductive rate is, which is how many people each infected person is running into, but we know that the proportions of people who are covered positive that have this variant is increasing rapidly, which tells us it is definitely more infectious than the other strains. tom: looking at the exponential realities bacteria and viruses, where does delta fit in? is it a normal lung function, or is there something -- log function or is there something different to it? >> it is within the normal spectrum. this is what infectious diseases do. the more we allow an infectious disease to spread, we know it will mutate, and some of the mutations will be more transmissibl

tom: see how he slams us by calling us talking heads? nice job. if we look to the jobs report, we tear it apart, part of it is wages. i know wages and burgeoning inflation is a real wage. how long do we sustain a negative inflation-adjusted wage? carl: i think we will sustain that into the back half of the year. the and warehouse workers that got a $15 minimum this year will have a improvement in their immediate situation but that is eroding away after adjusting for inflation. jonathan: can we get to the mystery chart the population ratio has flattened out and hasn't improved with the pace a lot of people wanted to see. we are pretty much where we were . what explains that for you, carl? carl: we have to be not in the thinking of that. whether it is at home learning, lingering concerns over the public health issues, also perhaps some discouraged workers in specific industries. it is a confluence of factors, a huge collapse and participation and that can be mended. maybe there is some retirement to factor in. what is interesting is we heard from th

tom: jack fitzpatrick joins us now, our bloomberg government reporter. there's so many serious things to talk about. where does space fit in on capitol hill? does anybody care about it, or is it some presidential moment every four years where they decide we are going to mars? jack: it may be something to care about once every four years or so. the blue origin stuff, for one reason or another, has not fixed itself in the center of the conversation in washington about space, but nasa has big enough plans that it is a topic of conversation. one thing to walk out -- to watch out for, do they stick to nasa's plan to put people back on the moon by 2024? there were some democratic lawmakers who thought president trump picked that for political reasons because he would like to still be in office when they do it. now that bided is in office, -- that biden is an office, i am hearing less resistance. the expensive route is together by 2024. they are definitely talking about nasa's plans. jonathan: many people are hopeful about the progress we can make. other people

[laughter] troy gay ascii -- troy gayeski skybridge will join us next. on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. lists and analysts in more than 120 countries. in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. [ "me and you" by barry louis polisar ] ♪ me and you just singing on the train ♪ ♪ me and you listening to the rain ♪ ♪ me and you we are the same ♪ ♪ me and you have all the fame we need ♪ ♪ indeed, you and me are we ♪ ♪ me and you singing in the park ♪ ♪ me and you, we're waiting f

jonathan: this tease us up -- this tees us up for tuesday morning. the reason i say is because anything jp morgan can deliver, can say about the future that will deliver a sustainable rally. romaine: i do not know about the future. when you look at some of the expectations for the double-digit earnings growth, not only for the second quarter and the third quarter, but there was the idea they would sustain that deeper into this year and into next year. right now the expectations are for negative growth. that will turn negative by q4. really yields have been the traffic signal for a lot of investors. go back to late march or late may and the very beginning of june when you had the kbw bank index at record highs and a lot of people were changing the narrative. that yield differential was going to be the real tailwind for a lot of these banks. when you look at the flaps we see in yields, that 1.30 we have on the screen, that is an astonishing number, a number that is broken down over the last 30 minutes. jonathan: 1.3012. down almost five basis points. t

it will not be used as leverage. we will vote for that part infrastructure as long as we get a little bit more when it comes to the human infrastructure package. romaine: how much political capital is being expended on this particularly when we know he has a relatively aggressive agenda he wants to get done. >> a lot of political capital is being used in terms of aids going back and forth to the hill. also you can see where the president has been making his trips recently. it's all been in the midwest, all two areas that are conservative and back the republican campaign. he is making his pitch as to why his goals for softer infrastructure in that human infrastructure is needed. last week on friday when he was talking about all the efforts they made the goal and the progress after the jobs report, when he was asked about foreign policy in afghanistan, he did not want to talk about that. it's very much focused on the domestic play right now. jonathan: let's talk about this market. down about 68 points on the bond marke

lloyd minard joins us now. we are thrilled he could join us today. a federal judge stood up last week and said indiana university can force people to get vaccinated. i know at stanford you have a sterling record, i believe it is 257 illnesses, which is remarkable given the size of palo alto. what is your policy. are you heading towards where indiana is? lloyd: we do have a policy requiring vaccination for all health care workers and also for students at stanford. there are provisions for people to apply for exemptions based upon medical or religious reasons. we strongly encourage people to be vaccinated and we are seeing a high number of people in our system who are vaccinated. tom: that is right where i wanted to go. if you have that policy from someone of your repute, do you see action on the part of the unvaccinated? dr. minor: we do. roughly 85% in our health care delivery system today are vaccinated. it continues to increase every day. i think vaccine hesitancy is coming down. we have seen just how effective these vaccines are. with the emergenc

tom: are you with us tomorrow? michael: would not miss us. tom: the red sox are in first place. michael: and they have increased their lead. tom: i thought maybe you were taking another red sox games. jonathan: this is good. tom: this is important. jonathan: it is good to have mike with us tomorrow. tom: constance hunter is going what are they talking about? she is with kpmg. constance: i am a yankees fan. tom: constance, we cannot talk yankees/red sox right now but we can talk claims to jobs. does this claims number adjust jobs outlook tomorrow? constance: not really. i want to say with regard to the state cap, what we have in our latest chart is that same map overlaid with the vaccination rate. we think this is a big thing that is keeping people on those continuing claims. when thinking about the impact of the cut off of pandemic unemployment insurance supplemental dollars in certain states, we need to look at the continuing claims and we need to look at what is going on with vaccination rates in those states. we still have over 40% of working age adults have not received even

i believe lisa is with us now. daniel: -- lisa: there is a question if you are expected to see a surge in the republican candidate or is this just going to be a democrat-only kind of race? shelly: there is about 7-1 democrats to republicans in new york city and the republican candidate who won is a more moderate candidate. tom: we have not gone there yet. for those of you internationally, it is simple, where is the romance of john lindsay? what happened? shelly: people complain about that, that there are tens of thousands of republicans who reregistered ahead of this race as democrats even though they voted republican. tom: they could not find a john lindsay to run? shelly: that is the issue for the republican party of new york. there is a lot of moderate and republican new yorkers, they just don't find the candidates they want to vote for. tom: diego for mr. adams? -- do they go for mr. adams? let's take a nationally, what does it symbolize for the democratic party nationally? shelly: nationally, the issue is pay

lisa back with us next week. kailey leinz with us this morning. tom:

jp morgan behind us, goldman in front of us. alongside us to break down these members in just a moment -- these numbers in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. white house officials are considering a digital trade agreement as a way to counter china and asia the proposed deal could cover companies -- could cover countries such as china, japan, australia, and singapore. it includes rules of use of data and trade facilitation area the biden administration reportedly will warn american come news of the risks of operating in hong kong. according to the financial times, those risks include china's ability to gain access to data that foreign companies store there. another one of the concerns is a new law that lets beijing impose sanctions on anyone that enables foreign penalties to be implement it against chinese groups. prime minister boris johnson's decision to ease coronavirus restrictions in england has led to growing fear and calls for action. doctors warned that the fresh toll of

card use in the u.s. sword 36% -- card use in the u.s. soared 36% and purchase volume climbed to $1.47 trillion. the idea of the consumer is strong. with more supplies chain constraints and getting inventory holding up some of the growth, but to me as far as the consumer goes they have a lot of money and they are spending it. tom: there will be a second look. i agree with a lot of the people , jon ferro mentioning neil dutta earlier. let's focus on where we are right now. dare i say there is a huge mystery to q4. nobody has a clue. jonathan: a lot of this has to do with how quickly some of the frictions get evened out. corporation saying it could be a long runway. these are the push and pull effects. tom: the news through the day on the pandemic and on masks. part of the conversation, "balance of power" at 12:00 noon with the senator from florida, rick scott. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still no

bob doll with us. from your perspective, how difficult is it to tell a client we don't own them, we don't own those names? bob: i would be in a disappointed situation if i had to do my client that. thankfully we do. but the question is what happens for here. you have all been alluding to it. we have amazing corporate earnings in the second quarter, but almost definitionally, and the back half of this year, market growth is going to decelerate. markets love when markets accelerate, not so much decelerate. i think it is just not a smooth glide, not a straight up. it is bumpy from here. tom: at crossmark, the game is to extrapolate out five years, 10 years. give me the courage of robert doll right now. how far out are you looking to believe in the extrapolation of apple, amazon, and for that matter, mcdonald's? robert: the companies are adapting, to use the word you have been using so far this morning. that is good news. the problem is what happens to the valuation, the multiples, as interest rates creep