tv Boom Bust RT November 27, 2021 9:30am-10:00am EST
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neil's good guy of the owner? but i would that be careful with will still be stuck with these odd to do i also use ah, with all this room also one business show you cannot afford to miss. i'm been sworn bambridge boring. washington. here's a way of coming up for the holidays are just around the corner and that's why tay situation isn't looking great. which my enforce consumers to change? holiday shopping habits. we'll talk about what we can expect this coming season, and then thinking of supply chain constraints, coupled with inflation and the economy struggling to recover from the pandemic. how does the highly lucrative holiday retail season look?
panel fact show today. so let's get to it. the and we leave the program with something that we have heard so much about recently, strained, global supply chains have contributed to rising prices. they've also made it very difficult to get products as we head into the crucial holiday shopping season retailers and consumers of like are feeling the impact, whether it be good stuck at port or sitting in warehouses waiting to be delivered. analysts predict supply chain disruptions will be here beyond the holiday shopping season, leaving shoppers with numerous out of stock messages well in 2022. joining us now discuss the latest in the supply chain crisis is kevin jackson. he's the host of digital transformers on supply chain. now. thank you so much for joining us, kevin. now, we have heard a lot about of different reasons for the supply chain issues. what are the reasons you are seeing or her role? thank you for having your under show, but i have a whole the industry has not respond efficiently to technology trend clicking
curves or failure to expand their motor channel on channel customer support capability. supply chain channel kiners really need to have this ability into their entire supply chain situation to ensure your efficiency or production programs for on time delivery and enhance, customer satisfaction. yes, so kevin, you know, we're talking about the supply chain issues. they really kicked off in the beginning of early october, right. but, but let's go back even before that, because really into the summer we started to see this pile up of shipping containers really off of 2 ports to support along beach, in the port of los angeles. right, and these ports obviously have been clogged up now for months. we have and i'm getting some numbers here just in the most recent numbers. 84 shipping containers that are now sitting in the water waiting to get into port, which by the way is now
a new hi. so it's not like that's gotten better. 65000 shipping containers are in port but are empty and they can't get back out. so we, what we see is this continued struggle right now in terms of, of how much of this this funnel has been clogged up. and it doesn't seem to be getting better, even though there's a, there's a, a white house task force that's been assigned this. even though the rules surrounding the time that these ports are open has changed. why is it taking so long to get this particular situation? in long beach, in los angeles, why is it taking so long to fix this was really inadequate planning and forecasting and or dependency on using what's happened in the past to predict what's happening today. that sort of looking in the past is not helpful because the president has change be
before the tomorrow. at spec, a normal consumer, but consume returns to nothing but normal. there's also been huge shares in government, ben or regulations that have been driven by changes in pandemic protocols due to local law searches and rapidly changing travel restrictions. and this have in turn, caused huge fluctuations in transport cost. shipping container costs for instance, have exploded, followed 10800 percent. and also the container and yard management factors like port congestion that you just talked about. and labor shortage for truck and rail transport is really shipped the industry heart. and i'm going to kinda propose the question to, has been here because, you know, we've talked about this issue at great length on this show and sometimes best bet
and peers as an analyst. i've just got to set that up for you here. but then you've often contended that this is number one is a less of a global supply chain. it's more of a us supply chain issue. and there's one thing that you've kind of pointed out many times to solve this problem. we could get them off of the west coast ports and move them in to say the gulf of mexico and florida. how do you see that working? yeah, well there's, there's a couple of things i think are fairly interesting here. one is a 40 percent of all shipping containers to enter the united states come through these 2 ports as we mentioned before, port los angeles and the port of long beach. so that's obviously a, just a problem in and of itself to have so much of these cargo containers coming through such a small geographical area. but here's the thing i just mentioned. 84 container ships are now sitting in the water off of the coast, waiting to get into port. now, the question that i posed before is why not re route many of those container ships
to other locations, send them to florida, send them to the gulf of mexico. why not move them to other ports where, where it would make sense to get them in. i've actually checked how long this would take. it takes 2 weeks, essentially from los angeles. you go down to the panama canal, come back up on the other side. and now you've got florida, and you've got the, the gulf of mexico. and i guess kevin, let me then take that brings question and i'll toss it to you. so i've been saying this for weeks now. why doesn't this happen? it makes perfect sense to me that it would happen. why are the ships continuing to wait? because some have been waiting for months and it with 84 container ships sitting there right now we're talking about what another 6 months worth of unloading to take place. why not move them to florida? why not move them to new orleans? why not move them to, to the gulf coast and get them into port so they can start to be distributed around the country. works morning, jackson, getting a ship to a por, port has to be prepared to ship that. sure. that's called infrastructure. you
need to be able to off load the containers, you need, i have enough people to offload containers. you have to have a war that's actually larger. now some of the container ships can only go into specially designed port and also somebody's ships have huge drafts. so if you look at the amount of water and ship needs in order to just get into to for, it may not be available. so there's a lot more than just moving to another port. so let me ask you this real quick. so is there any reason to believe that these there are no other ports that can do this, and the only reason i'm asking if i know the florida governor rhonda santos has made several statements that where he says look, florida, the ports are open. we can handle this, we have the ability to we have the crew and the staffing. remember when, when president might have mentioned that the portal, los angeles,
and for that long beach, we're going to be open 24 hours a day. and they were going to be staff differently than they had been in the past 7 days a week. descent it says in florida, that's already the case. all of their ports are already open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. so i'm just curious. do you know that that these ports couldn't handle this? so i don't know if reports credit, but each of the companies themselves may have internal mr. tombs and remember the company has not been have not been prepared to actually transition to different port. that is a issue. there should be much better advanced planning. and there's also been a big shift with respect to off shoring. so this, this issue is really driving a lot of changes and decisions with respect to the so often of these products. the
other thing is that many organizations only have single suppliers, as opposed to having multiple suppliers directly from the needed products, from multiple locations, both off shorn and mir shoring needs to be addressed. and i want to go ahead and bring in another guess here britain, lag global strategy and supply chain consult. he's joining us now as well. britain, we're talking about the solution to all of the world's problems when it comes to global supply chain. and whether or not we can move some of these container ships that are basically parked off of the port of los angeles and part of long beach, can't we move them somewhere else, whether that be to the east coast or even north? what is your make? what do you make this? certainly now i agree with what our guests have been saying that it's, it's a challenge to do that. he's ry some of the ships out to, to shallow draft. ah,
there's also the fact that some of the ships are too large, the pole in the sports. but the big thing is this, the i have spoken with the bi demonstration, i've spoken with the press about this. and the things that i recommended to them is that they need to fix the problem where the problem exists and that is the west coast. and what i've argued is that there is no reason why the u. s. military cannot be asked to be involved in this to where they provide the trucks, the trailers, the drivers, and that special permission be given to a lot of the drivers currently serving in the military to be able to drive these trucks without the appropriate chauffeur's driver's license that many of the civilian drivers have, and i'm not talking about putting them on their states or anything like that. but be able to have them work at the port be able to have them help in getting these containers unloaded dredging these these for these containers to local travel facilities and things like that. because what i've argued to the vitamin
ministration is that this truly is a crisis. this is not a problem, it is a crisis. and those military absolutely should be able to assess and take care of this. and the other thing that i want to distress, and i've stressed as to the binding ministration, is that the other ports are now starting to get a tremendous backlog. they to are starting to fill up. the last thing we want as a country is a port system that is on able to be able to to be unable to unload ships, unload the containers. this should have been already fixed. and so my advice to the vitamin ministration remains, getting u. s. military involved in us, and let's set a goal of having those ships on loaded within a matter of a month or 2, not 6 months or anything like that. this really is a much bigger prices. and people realize when you talk about getting the u. s. military involve us, be clear, that's a, that's a different proposal than the proposal that's been made about getting the national guard involved. obviously with national guard comes in many of those, you know,
guys would, and men and women would already. busy be truck drivers in their civilian life, and then they, they also work in the national guard. you're talking about active duty military to be able to transport goods and to be able to move the empty shipping containers correct. direct. now they certainly would be supported by the national guard, but here's the problem. i've done an evaluation of the available guard units, and there simply is not enough civilian truck drivers that are within the guard units. and so we're actually looking at a smaller number of people who could be as a, could assist with this. but also when i'm talking about the u. s. military, i'm talking about giving this problem the attention it deserves. this is not something i believe is really best set up for the guard to handle. this is something where i say president biden should have an executive order. worked with the department of defense, the secretary to fans, and say last allocate the necessary men women and equipment to get those containers
unloaded off those ships, get those containers out of the ports. the big problem, no one's talking about, is there several 100000 containers sitting right there in the ports to day. so they're actually running out of room to bring off containers input into the board. so we've got to clean that backlog out and being able to leverage military equipment to do this and allow these trucks to operate on the roads, which they're normally not allowed to do except in times of national defense and, and war. so i say give them the authority they need to do that. this is really a great opportunity from a bite and ministration to do something good and have the military helped them and say, we're cleaning this up or cleaning the other ports up. we're going to do an away that's a little extreme, the, some people, but i've analyzed that this is what i do for living. i run models and i, i basically do a research on these topics. i served in the marines for 6 years. so i've been involved in these types of operations before, and to me, this is not best suited for the national guard and reserve. this really should be
active duty military and one other thing. in addition to the problem at the poor, we're also running into all kinds of shortages in the stores. and i'd argued through the vitamin ministration that we need our own version of the marshall plan, wherein world war 2, we flew all kinds of products to europe. we need to leverage our military to go around the globe and be bringing a lot of the products we're running in the shortages of here now. and let's start stockpiling those. i don't think the average individual realizes just how severe this really is. and now kevin, obviously breton, came in and he threw a whole nother wrench in the works of ideas here. what do you make of that, kevin? of all, not current international certainly could be activated to help there. so it will require both the governor and the national government to collaborate on that you would also have to look at other means of transportation
like rail to help reduce the the backup at all. busy of the port, so those are shirt options that should be explored. kevin jackson, host of digital transformers that supply chain now and britain, lad, global strategy and supply chain consulting. thank you both for joining. it's fascinating conversation. we'll do it again soon. thank you. thank you. it's, i'm out for a quick break, but when we come back, so we've taken a look at the products, getting the doors will get insight into what retail sales might look like during this holiday shopping season with our expert panel, the right back with the wrong driven by a trainer shaped center centers with
ah and welcome back now that we have officially reached the christmas season. well, i mean, here in the united states it's been going on since about october, but we have reached the season officially. we have to ask the question, how different will this holiday season be from years past? thanks to supply kit, sit train constraints, as well as a pandemic recovery that is coming much slower than exp. it is a question of what is retail can actually look like. well, it will look like this year to shop compared to years past. and what is the new normal is, is there a new normal join us out to discuss is marked for pre k lini consumer science at the university of houston, and the yamani associate professor at the darden school of business at the university of virginia. thank you both for being here. so barbara, let's begin with you prior to everything that has happened over the past 2 years, retail was let's face. it was already struggling in comparison to
e commerce. we know that brick and mortar has been struggling for a number of years now, and he commerce was rising, but how much worse has it gotten for brick and mortar? as a result of what we've been through for the past 2 years, where we haven't, we have experienced a lot of growth in online shopping. we expect this season will be about 20 percent of total retail shop. that means 75 percent of what is spent will be spent in physical stores who are expecting a strong monroe best retail season. national retail federation suggests will be up maybe 8 and a half, 10 and half percent over 2020. and that signals the strong season over there. we've obviously, you know, spend, like been said about the last 18 months to 2 years kind of inside. obviously people are opening up more and more today. but is it possible that there could be some sort of kind of online fatigue taking place and people will actually want to get outside and shop this year?
do we see any of that or are, are there really stuck in their phones and computers? yes, you would see some of it, but not so much probably because of being stuck on your one computers. but probably because when you're making a purchase for $50.00 and it does not show up on the day that you want it like someone's birthday anniversary of party christmas. then people are going to start getting ready, novas. so you're going to see some sections off populations. ready going backing to the stores, just to get that certainty that you're going to be able to find this particular item. it's going to come with us. cool. that's a check box that's checked off from the nist. the other please that you might see something like this is let's see, i am going to pick up indoor decorating lunch. i want to see how that space looks right online is not exactly great or something like that. and that interaction that
advice is something people would want, but everything else from detergents. ready to toilet paper to her these, i don't sequencing was lloyd from the unlikely simply because it's just too simple, too easy. you've gotten to use too well, and i definitely understand your point. but it also seems with the can the supply chain constraints that we've been talking about. there's such a little of a guarantee that that item will actually be in the store at this point as well. so that's, that's where things are becoming more and more difficult. these days now, barbara, all these notes, how much is inflation and rising costs of pretty much everything impacting this going into effect due to those retail numbers? well, we'll see some differences in prices, a little bit higher price for the product itself, little higher price for the, for the transportation to get it to the consumer. and then of course the labor said shortage. the tight labor market is also playing in substantially us. so we may see
some higher prices, but retailers are really trying very hard to keep, re tell prices in line with what consumers are happy to be pay regardless of the holidays aside for a minute here as, as we will soon move into 2022, which is kind of unbelievable that we're there already. it appears as inflation though, is not transitory. we kept hearing that right in flesh as transitory is not gonna stick around. it looks like it's gonna stick around and maybe even for years to come, which also means the cost of everything is going to go up and it's going to stay up . now we've heard people say, well, it doesn't really matter, right? because people have more money in their bank accounts and so they can afford it. number one, how long can they afford it? and number 2, what consumers need to consider based upon this idea that the cost of everything is not only up, but it may stay up for the foreseeable future. that certain that he got going, i think it over there now prices, so he seen a sticker shock on eggs and gasoline runny. we're not being mindful about it. i
mean, i see that it means holiday season between between landscaping and christmas. that'll be to leslie, we're getting to the black that's in a lot of seats. and a bunch of the supply chain issues with the being on the backend is gonna come to consumers on the front end, which means you're going to see prices creep up on you fi cents on eggs and cents on meg dodge and everything that we use on an everyday basis, there's going to be a pleasant day to update con, which is going to leave less in the bus. when you get into spring next year. i don't even know if was prepared for it. there is of going to be stood a section of the population that is going to be okay with the hot, the padding the handle place to absorb that inflation. but when you're talking about everyday mainstream brokers, you add those swipe was a big is up including then what do you see on brent on utilities?
every small person date, there's going to be a largeness, discretionary spending happening in those actually that that's what i mean by thing . and i'd be mindful about it. absolutely. and barbara armina, you know, it seems like, you know, i'm going back of the holidays here. it seems like shopping begins earlier in earlier every year. and now that we have had the supply chain constraints, we haven't seen, you know, big numbers in october as we've talked about. i mean, is that all being pushed by this? are people actually just getting out sooner and, you know, when we get into mid december, there's gonna be a lot of empty shelves to look at. well, the numbers tell us that 4 times as many shoppers expected to shop earlier than they usually do. and retailers, of course that's good, it extends the selling season. consumers buy early and then they also buy late. so up with an advantage to both consumers and retailers, i think it'll happen a longer selling season,
and simmers are to some extent ready to be out and around with people. and shopping is a tradition for many. and so that's part of the holiday experience that i, i do think there is a concern for some people. certainly you're not gonna have necessarily, you know, some of those big christmas items, like we have with the p s 5 last year. and some of those, those bigger items. but one of the things that took place, i think it was fairly interesting, was there was such a delay for people trying to get some of those big electronic items last year because you couldn't find them and stores. and then when you went online bots were buying them all up. and so i, i, i heard from a lot of people that there is fatigue with the idea of trying to hurry and buy things online. because they don't want to compete with bots. give you the last word here video. absolutely. i'm the bonnie of not having it in dine makes you wanting firewood. ali's what it odds are da says you're not very sure what exactly you might want to on miss hitch. which means that you're not
going to just be buying one, you're going in with a category in mind. so you're saying i want delivery. sions. and i might want a couple of sound bar systems along with it. i'm not really sure which one little i'm going to buy because there's a big liking that it's not going to be available to go. but the big tv because i don't and i wanted it on the 2nd one. so come january, i want to see a big i put the lips of ripple is coming up. maybe that's an invalid across the system. but but consumers are laying safe near anything a little back in their buying the wound up being on line ahead of time. much more than what they need. barbara stewart professor of re 70 consumer science at the university of houston and b yamani, associate professor at darden school of business, university of virginia. thank you both. thank you. and that's it for this time you get boom. but on demand on the portable tv app available on smartphones and tablets
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a new coded strain in southern africa, sparks global public prompting countries to shut down or travel with the region. the variant is already spreading globally, put the u. k. the latest nation to confirmed cases. the developers of sputnik v are preparing to test the russian shot against the new mutation. we also hear from the hungarian foreign minister about his own country's maxine policy on the needs of lives above politics. there are few in many countries. i'm considering the issues of vaccination as if you had a political or ideological nature. you know, it's about lives older people and also coming up on the program.