tv The 11th Hour With Brian Williams MSNBC November 3, 2021 1:00am-2:00am PDT
and winsome sears will be the first woman of color to serve as lieutenant governor, the first black woman to win statewide election in virginia. she's also a former marine. but the drama at this hour is the race in new jersey too close to call. the democratic incumbent is fighting as governor against jack chai ciattarelli says he wants to declare victory, not prepared to do so until the numbers come through. which number is going to prevail. >> right now, what we're seeing, you would rather be phil murphy
than jack chaittarell trying to nail down what type of vote for new jersey that's been a challenge. talking to both sides, republican side and democratic side, they've seen the same thing. why phil murphy trailing by 2,000 prefer to be in the position that he is right now, a couple reasons, mercer county where trenton is, the state capital, the vote by mail is outstanding here. murphy is winning the vote by mail by massive margin. vote by mail which is a pretty good size county is going to pad murphy's margin considerably. if you added vote by mail from mercer county, he would certainly move ahead.
it's not just mercer, in essex county, newark, this is the area just outside of newark, we think what we're still waiting on, some precincts, a lot of their i election day vote reported out in essex county. there are some that have not yet voted out their i election day result. it's go be to be a pro-murphy vote depending on the precincts, there's extremely democratic precincts in essex county, again, murphy with an opportunity to squeeze votes out there. there are a few other places on the map where there may be outstanding vote by mail. again, you see what the vote by mail is doing. anywhere you see the outstanding vote by mail, that's thousands of more votes for phil murphy. sfu flip it around, and luke at where murphy may have votes, where is ciattarelli getting
votes? ocean county is a big place for republicans, you can see, he had a big margin here, about 70% of the vote. look at the raw vote here, you know when chris christie won statewide when he took out john khorasan back in 2005, this is the first one to come in, you're saying whoa, ciattarelli is doing what chris christie did in 2000 when he was able to win statewide. again, all of the vote basically in here, we talked about sussex county, another core republican county, we got all the vote in there. you can point to stashes on the map here for murphy. big places where he gets big margins here. you can't find much right now. and we just got another update
there. >> oh, wow, yeah. >> i'm going to ask -- it's a small amount, it might be a precinct, i'm going to ask my producer adam did you see where that came in, in new jersey? that was 2,000 votes. >> we had a 1900 lead for -- >> ah, a little bit more vote here. how much was that, adam? he's sitting there at 565 votes behind jack ciattarelli. again, we're talking big places, when i say vote by mail is outstanding in mercer county, you're talking about thousands of votes and you're talking about an overwhelming democratic vote.
again, if you look at this, if you're phil murphy, you're not happy with the situation you're in. the last two polls put murphy ahead by 11 points, by 8 points, there was an awful lot of confidence by democrats but then it looks like he's going to have an extremely, extremely close call. the good news for him, if you're the murphy campaign, at this hour, you can look at this and potentially three is a path for victory in this. ciattarelli has given him everything he can handle. >> we had about 84% of the vote in right now. about an hour, we were at 81%, likelihood, we're not getting all the vote tonight? >> that's the thing, i'm talking about the vote by mail, we're not sure it's going to come in tonight. or any other votes. new jersey -- virginia, basically all in, virginia in these counties have been getting vote by mail for weeks.
they've been processing it. they came in, in election night, they were ready to go with the mail. in new jersey, the law is midnight on election day, the first time election officials can open the ballots, begin verifying, processing, all of those steps. i think it slows things down in new jersey. yeah, as we get into the wee hours here, i say we see a path for phil murphy, i'm not sure if phil murphy is going to take that path in the overnight hours. >> as we have seen since you've been doing this all night, the lead has narrowed for ciattarelli, so when that changes or if that changes, send a wave over to my way, i'll come back to you, steve kornacki, we will not go far from him, his camera is on him at all times. >> joining us now, christina valen toni, she's the director and former assistant manager for
politics for "l.a. times." and a former adviser for the democratic campaign committee. and marissa kumar is back with us, she's the ceo of vote the latino. thanks for joining us, christina, let's start with you and what you make of what has happened tonight, in both cases in the case of new jersey, as steve pointed out, murphy went in with a strong lead until about ten days ago, mcauliffe had a lead in virginia. there were polls that showed a strong lead for youngkin that he ended up winning with. this is a turnaround in those states. >> i can't tell you how much i love talking about virginia politics, it was one of the first sort of roles i had when i got to d.c., i'm like super nerd about it i apologize in advance. one thing is if you telegraph to
voters, that your race will be a signal to national politicians, voters respond to that, right? they're aware, there are issues that people vote on, and they also recognize that people want to send a message. this is something that happens. no matter what party wins. voters recognize that the national sort of attention is on them. virginia is fascinating for a couple of reasons. it's something that hasn't come up very often tonight. terry mcauliffe is governor. he's effectively running as incumbent. virginia has a super weird, one of the only states that nobody can run for election. you have to sit doubt, no one does that, they go on to run for president, they end up in trouble, not end up running for anything again, or they end up in the senate. this is a rare opportunity for a politician to do that, when you're running effectively as an
incumbent on a record that signals you should be stronger than you are, but mccauliffe is representation of sort of the clinton era. extremely tied to clinton. i talked to several voters, still got that you're kind of on my mind that he's so tied into the clintons. and you also have this matter of what's happening in washington and this action not giving democrats anything to really take home to say that, yes, this is something that the democratic party stands for. and ended up being another i'm going to run against trump which a lot of voters got turned off of. >> i want to put out a tweet that was put out tonight. white women voted 51% for biden,
47 for trump. in virginia, 57% went for youngkin, and 43% to mcauliffe. that's a big swing for white women. are you able to attribute anything? >> if you dig in deeper, you actually have white women with less college are ones actually breaking more for youngkin. he has everything to do with how we're living right now. terry mcauliffe did a gaff when he talked about parents should not be part of the school system and making choices in curriculum but he was responding to critical race theory that does not exist in virginia and he was responding to the dog whistles and not well. i do believe what we're seeing, people are hurting, while we see
a lot of people making a lot of money on the stock market, that's not translating to everyday people. what he was promising is $1500 in the pockets of every other virginian. as we heard him say in his concession speech. not recognizing that the biden administration is giving $3,000 if they have a child with child tax credit. i do believe it's a combination of not enough communication to voters who are hurting, regardless of color, and the democrats' inability to pass a package to address fundamental economic issues that people have not been able to recuperate from the pandemic. unless they pass an aggressive package, it's going to very much seem like to the majority of americans when it's politics as usual. when in fact, we know that it's anti-abortion, he perpetuates racist dog whistles and that's a challenge for the democrats if they do not provide economic relief to voters.
>> kurt bardella, it's nice to see you, my friend. i lost trump of how emails he sent out tonight. essentially taking credit for glenn youngkin's victory. glenn youngkin was working hard that mary teresa was talking about, to benefit and not have the trump stink as jonathan said in the last hour rub all of on him. is this a new republican tactic, and could it work? >> yeah, i mean, the one person i didn't hear glenn youngkin thank tonight was donald trump which was not an accident, that was by design. the reason -- there's obviously -- glenn youngkin didn't share a stage with donald trump. that was by design, that's going to be a big blueprint for republicans in 2022.
and it underscores for democrats going forward, it's not just donald trump we have to define the republican party for what it is. the republican party has spent two decades running a brand offensive against the democratic party. labeling them as socialists, that the green deal is extreme. describing everything as being socialist, being afraid. democrats now need to invest time, energy and repetition in defining the republican party. it's bigger than donald trump, what we've seen tonight, when trump isn't on the ballot, the trumpism policies are still playing. the voters for the republican base are still turning out and participating. they are not adequately defined by the democratic party. that's something that we need to change if we have any hope in reversing the trend and being successful in the 2020 midterms. one of the things we have seen, all of the people who prognosticate about what this
means for coming elections, let's just remember, a year ago, the conversation was incredibly different as it's seen tonight. nobody sitting here today can tell you with any certainty, what the heck we're talking about, a year from now, that san opportunity for the democrats to get engaged, change their tactics, become aggressive and start defining the republican party for what it is. >> christichristina, the exit p indicate that a plurality, almost 20% of voters said this had nothing to do with joe biden or the politics. the economy turns out to be the big issue for voters. education strangely was the second thing that they said was the most important. and i don't know whether that really means education or that's, as mary teresa was saying code for i don't want critical race theory caught to my kids in school which doesn't actually happen. but giving that sense of what
the split is here, how many of these people were motivated by national politics, and how many were motivated by who they thought would do a better job in virginia? >> yeah, it's a great question. i'm not there on the ground, i'm not out there reporting at the moment. but i will say, the term ed case, i'm a parent, i'm concerned about like covid vaccine mandates here in california. so it's sort of a lot of issues can be wrapped in the banner of education. we obviously know this was a huge issue towards the end of the race. i want to point out, i think this ties into your question, i hope, we can't forget about the governing part of this. youngkin is going to come in as governor with an extremely closely divided legislature. you interviewed the house of delegates in the last hour. this is going to be an interesting way for them to go and achieve all of the things he promised like the grocery tax and gas tax.
you can't necessarily do that. as joe biden has seen with a divided government, it's extremely difficult. they come in and work 40 days every year, or 90 days over other year, they get on the floor and debate things and they're done. that's a test for governor. particularly if anybody is looking at this youngkin model and playbook for his campaign, that's what people have to look at and evaluate with his governing record over the next few years whatever his legislature ends up being. that is a huge effect on the midterm elections. people are looking at what do you do when you have that power, power is particularly terminative, in washington. >> it's worth pointing out that we don't know what the virginia house of legislature is going to look like right now. the trend is towards republicans winning across the state tonight. that's not clear tonight.
it might be a split house. mary teresa, to kurt's point about democrats if there's a message to take away, if that message is defining yourself really clearly or republicans clearly over the course of the next year, what does that look like? is there any message that you take in how democrats have done in either dividing themselves or dividing republicans for the voter? >> i think when you turn on the news, not political junkies like us watching every day, when they turn on the news is that democrats are infighting, and not passing legislation. i think right now for the average voter, they say, wait a second, you control the house, you control the senate and the white house and you still don't have the votes you need. they need to pass big bold legislation. it's one thing to have a purple state like virginia that's split in two, the fact that in new jersey as it correlates is so
close, should basically speak to democrats that they need to come together and pass something. it's not all 50 democrats it's really two standing in the way, that is senator manchin and senator sinema. and how are the other 48 members going to be able to convince cheese two to make big bold changes in order for them to keep the white house, the senate andhopefully the white house in 2024. yes, i already went to 2024, ali. >> i heard it that. thanks to all of you. much more still ahead including the latest on the razor tight race for control, as we just talked about of the virginia house of delegates. do you take aspirin? plain aspirin could be hurting your stomach.
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votes are still being counted in virginia. nbc news has projected that glenn youngkin will be the next governor but control of the house of delegates is up in the air. dan helmer flipped his seat since the 1990s. some the campaign was ugly, "the washington post" found a republican ad against dan helmer so anti-semitic that the editorial board condemned me. joining me now, dan helmer from virginia. he served in iraq and
afghanistan. he's a lieutenant colonel in the reserves. we have breaking news, "the washington post" has just projected that dan helmer has won re election against the republican. h dan, congratulations on your victory tonight. >> thank you so much, it's such a pleasure to be with you. >> talk to me about what has happened tonight in virginia? >> well, in this district, we were running on a sense of community and value, a shared vision for what virginia can be, a belief that women ought to make their own health care decisions. that we all want a world class education for our children and that everybody should be able to afford their prescription drugs. and it was incredibly successful. as you mentioned this seat had been held by 17 years by republicans before we flipped it during the trump administration in 2019. we actually increased tonight
the number of votes we got by over 3,000 votes by running on a shared set of values and a shared vision for our future. >> what happened differently in our district which you have flipped versus so many other places in virginia, at least at the level of the statewide races. why did a solidly democratic state go republican, in statewide elections? >> well, i can't speak to what's happened in every other district, but i can say it's a real shame that we have, you know, have put somebody, potentially, in the executive mansion that's going to seek to divide us, rather than unite us. that is going to build a virginia for some of us and not for all of us. and i think by running on a very clear vision in this district, of building a virginia that works for every single virginian. in which every virginian has access to affordable health care and that women, not politicians,
make their own decisions on their health. that's what's at risk with this administration. >> when you're out there talking to constituents, to what degree were they talking about these issues they're talking about, versus anything to do with democrats, republicans and trump and biden? >> yeah, i mean, i went door to door i knocked on about 8,000 doors in my district. i had house to upon thousands of conversations. what i heard in those conversations is concern from parents about having a world class education for their kids. about whether their kids will be safe at school from covid and gun violence. i heard from women who looked at what happened in texas and were afraid that they would no longer be able to make their own health care decisions. and i heard from families who were devastated by the pandemic, worried about their health insurance, worried about their coverage. we're looking for people who were going to fight with a shared vision and set of values
of bringing people together. fighting for things that impacted their everyday lives. nats what they were looking for in the house of delegates and new administration. >> the new polling indicated that economy and jobs were the biggest issue at about 33% of those who were polled. education, as you talk about, was the second biggest issue. it's also what glenn youngkin chose to speak about first in his victory speech tonight. when we talk about education, it's obvious what parents are concerned about education. how much education as a priority in virginia in this election, what you were describing talking about a world class education for kids, versus a hot button, critical race theory thing that republicans were peddling? >> well, i do think that youngkin was out there selling a bill of goods that would seek to divide us, rather than bring us together. you know, sitting in a humvee in
iraq or afghanistan, we worked on behalf of a shared set of values. it was reflective of our backgrounds. and i think that's what people expect in our education system and our government. and what they're not going to get with youngkin in the executive mansion. i think what's really important is that we as democrats demonstrate our commitment. and making sure they have input into the education that children get is going to be world class. that there are paths to advanced math and advanced science. and excellence in english. that's what parents want to see. i think we have a real opportunity to do that, but not what this administration has been talking about defunding our public schools. we're going to fight like hell. make sure that we maintain a world class education for our
♪♪ 2:32 a.m. in the east, and votes are still coming in, in pennsylvania, i want to go back to steve kornacki. steve. >> yeah, to pick up where we left off in new jersey, 565 votes, jack ciattarelli giving him everything he can handle tonight, the question in new jersey, two questions, number one, are we going to get more votes reported out throughout the rest of this night/early
morning. we had a small update a short while ago. i think we're getting into the territory where that becomes a question if even going to get more vote out tonight but there is more vote that will come in the race. very quickly to take you through it. we've been telling you, mercer county, we believe there's vote by mail left in mercer county. vote by mail is heavily democratic. that would be an advantage for thousands of votes potentially for phil murphy. we also think there's outstanding vote. here, it's unclear. we've been saying this tonight, there's been a lot of confusion around where, how many ballots are left in new jersey. summerset county, jack ciattarelli's hometown here doing quite well here. it's either vote by mail or early vote that has yet to be reported here. either one of those types of votes tends to be democratic friendly. the mail tends to be very
democratic friendly. the early vote tends to be very democratic friendly. but either way, either way you look at it, it appears in somerset county tell appears an opportunity for murphfy to pick up votes here. it used to be a big republican county. you see ciattarelli currently is building substantially on that trump support. i do think there's some vote out here that will bring murphy up a little bit and ciattarelli down a little bit, if you're murphy, trying to make up votes statewide, if you pick up a few hundred votes that could be a significant thing. also potentially significant, it appears there's a number of precincts in essex county newark and the area that have not reported their same-day vote. in essex county, some of the precincts depending on where exactly you're talking about in the county can be extremely democratic. there's an opportunity as well
for murphy to add in essex county. what we're telling you, about the ones we know about, as well, we have question marks in hudson county here. what we're seeing in our system is suggesting that maybe all of the same-day vote has been cast here. but we're looking at a turnout number that would be extremely low relative to what we're seeing in other counties. we're trying to get to the bottom of that. are there more votes that come out of hudson county, anything more that comes out of hudson county. you can see this is jersey city right across from new york city, a core democratic area. trying to nail that down. also trying to nail down if you go to south jersey here. camden county, it's a slash story. appears there's same-day vote to be reported as well. right across from philadelphia, camden, obviously, the name suggests city of camden here, overwhelmingly democratic. so, again, you can look at a number of areas on this map and say we're not sure exactly how
much is left in each one of them. we're not sure exactly which type is left in each one of them, put you put them all together, you can see a number of different roots here where phil murphy can erase that 565 and still look at a lead of his own in this governor's race. then you start to say, okay, where are the areas on this map where ciattarelli, you know, could fight back, could counter those gains murphy seemed positioned to make. it's tough to i.d. those on the map right now. the only other thing i would say right now, on paper, you would much rather be where murphy is rather than ciattarelli. but i would underscore there's an intense amount of confusion in terms of the vote reporting coming out from the different counties in terms of trying to make sense, what are they telling us, in terms of the mail vote, the same day vote, the early vote. it leaves a little bit there where you want to say, do what our decision desk is doing, just
nail this down one county at a time. it can be tough to get folks on the phone at 2:00 in the morning, as you can imagine, let's see if that turns up anything that would change that thinking i just laid out for you but right now, potentially what we could identify a number of paths for murphy and tougher for ciattarelli. >> ciattarelli earlier this year to not -- it sounded like a victory speech but are more specific about when people are saying when we can declare a victory. murphy saying we're not talking about this until every vote is counted. steve kornacki, thank you. jonathan allen, senior reporter for nbc news, digital, eugene back with me. john allen, tell me what you make of this tonight? >> it's a big night for republicans and a bad night for democrats. the way you slice it, where joe biden and democrats were in
2020, you're seeing recession. and glenn youngkin, if donald trump doesn't run for president, you'll see him immediately watching for that top tier of potential republican candidates. he's created a model to run on a trump-like agenda. and -- >> jonathan alter, this new model that john allen was just talking about, you identified it earlier as this model in which people who dislike donald trump and what donald trump stands for, glenn youngkin created a model in which it would be palatable for those people to go back and vote for republican. it's not really clear where glenn youngkin stands on a bunch of things because he seems to straddle some lines on traditional and conservative values compared to what trump followers like. he struggled with it during the
campaign. donald trump wants to stick himself to youngkin. and youngkin tried to bob and weave around donald trump. >> yeah, look at new jersey, too, where a tremendous number of people voted for ciattarelli when nobody was expecting it. they are people who did not blame a republican candidate for all of their unhappiness with donald trump who lost the state by 16 points. so, i want to throw something on the table here for consideration that isn't, you know, fully formed yet. but what we might have seen tonight, as disastrous as it was for the democrats, the beginning of post-trump politics. you know, when republicans analyze these returns and they see that their candidates were running 15, 16 points ahead of trump in 2020, a lot of them have to ask themselves do we really want to nominate this guy
in 2024? do we really want to lose all of these gains that we've gotten? right now, there are 16 states that have open primaries where the trumpsters won't necessarily dominate the presidential primaries. because independent voters and, you know, democrats and republicans who hate trump can vote in that primary. and so, if that number is expanded or if we see some other developments, it may be that assumption that donald trump has a stranglehold on the republican party is in need of reassessment. that we might be moving into a different period. politics is always changing in this country. and these elections go off in a new direction. >> yeah, that's an interesting point, eugene. politics are always changing in this country. there are a lot of people going into the election with the
statistical backing of the assumption that virginia is a solidly democratic state. >> oh, absolutely. that's something that most people probably agreed on. we talked about it over and over, there are folks talk about the polls as tightening, the polls are missing something or the excitement is going to come or the mail-in ballot vote is going to be huge, it's going to swing democratic. we obviously didn't see that enough for terry mcauliffe in order for him to win. that's something that democrats will have to figure out. they have a year and some change to do that. but what it tells you is that focusing on local matters works for republicans, right? you have both ciattarelli and young kin who focused on state issues. some of those that were intertwined with the national conversation, mask mandates, vaccine mandates, critical race theory, quote/unquote. but they really did try to talk about the things in the state. they talked about those kitchen table issues. while you have terry mcauliffe
talking about national issues, even saying and other virginia democrats saying with them that they wanted to see movement on things in congress. he is not a member of congress, in order for him to get a boon as he moved into tonight. and that is something that the parties have to work on. is figuring out how to talk about how the republican party has changed, define the opponents but at the same time say who they are and what they stand for without bringing donald trump in. it's good to not have donald trump on the ballot and it's hard for democrats to target him when he's not on the ballot. >> john allen, the exit poll indicated a number for pollers, economies and jobs number one, about 33%. abortion was the lowest of the five, mostly because we're talking about abortion for a long coronavirus, a little
higher. taxes, education was the second biggest concern for virginia voters, 24%. is that a canary in the coal mine for democrats and messaging what actually happened in school? republicans seem to be fairly successful in planting this idea that critical race theory is something you need to be worried about as a parent? >> 100%, ali, the canary is too small. a toucan or something, i don't know. yeah, republicans were able to portray terry mcauliffe and his own words as effectively anti-parent, certainly against parents dick indicating curricula in schools. that's an issue that republicans are talking about all over the country. mask mandates. they're frustrated in terms of attendance, if republicans are able to turn democrats into an anti-terrorism, anti-student party that's disastrous for the democrats. you know, we can go back to
jimmy carter in 1976, unable to put together teachers unions and ptas to get behind him was a powerful thing effectively nonpartisan. the other thing we haven't talked about, the numbers on the economy and the jobs, a piece of that that doesn't get today, how do people feel about inflation. it's something that's certainly on the minds of a lot of voters. i talked to folks across the country, i was in michigan earlier this year, the congressional district, inflation is high on the minds of americans, not only the inflation they're seeing now. >> well, john if you ever want to talk about inflation on tv, i'm your guy. >> i heard you can explain why there's no causeality between one proposal over time. that doesn't necessarily mean that the politics works with it.
you know, we've talked a lot about virginia and new jersey but there are other big headlines for tonight. nbc news projects democrat eric adams will be the next mayor of new york. the second black mayor until its history. here's eric adams. >> this is the moment for the people who have hit a bend in the road. a bend in the road is not the end of the road as long as you make the turn. tonight, we are going to make the turn and take our city in a new direction. >> former police capital in manhattan, manhattan as well, alvin bragg will back the first black district attorney. bragg will take over the office
that indicted the trump administration and alan wiseberg. and michelle wu is the first asian american to be elected mayor of that city. in minneapolis, a new department of public safety with the initiative it gained traction after the murder of george floyd. and then one last look with new jersey with steve kornacki. steve, what's going on there? >> yeah, the holding pattern continues. jack ciattarelli, the republican still up in the count with 565 votes. we haven't had anything new in a while. again, i'm starting to suspect strongly we won't for the rest of the night. by did just see one county clerk put up a message online saying that's it for the night. they'll update more votes in the morning. there are more votes. that's the head line with
ciattarelli clinging to that small advantage over murphy, ali. there are more votes, moat moatably, mercer county, around trenton, the state capital. it's a blue county and a blue-type of vote that's expected to come still in mercer county. the vote by mail. democrats do very well vote by mail. 80% well, vote by mail. big opportunity for murphy there. also if you look at somerset county, we see it's red right now. we believe it's either vote by mail or absentee vote or early vote in somerset. either one would be advantage murphy over ciattarelli, definitely, the mail would be murphy over ciattarelli. again, another opportunity for ciattarelli to add to the vote margin there to potentially overtake ciattarelli, ali. >> it may be there are no more votes coming in from new jersey
this early morning, but i can't tell you to take the rest of the morning off because i'm not willing to withstand that sort of hate on twitter. >> no, we'll be back as soon as we get more, trust me. >> excellent, steve, thanks very much. what has turned into a highly unpredictable night. we're back after this break.
one final question tonight is what will tomorrow bring? the house is expecting to vote on the infrastructure bills this week. jonathan alter, were you have written about presidents. what do you think is going to happen tomorrow as a result of what we've seen tonight? >> i think the democrats will quickly pivot to passage of these two huge bills and then try to develop a new communications strategy for selling them. they have to explain what they're delivering to the american people. in terms of the election, with virginia and new jersey too close to comfort and focus on
new york where a moderate democrat was elected and minneapolis where they rejected defund the police proposal. so democrats, i think, national democrats, understand that woke politics say loser for them. people don't have to worry about using the right pronoun. this is the kind of thing really hurting them in the suburbs and they will try to develop a new strategy moving forward. >> jonathan, thank you, my friend, once again it's a good prediction of late nights together. thank you to all the panelists who joined us tonight. of course, steve kornacki, i'm ali velshi. msnbc's coverage continues right after this break.
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nbc news projects republican glenn youngkin as the winner of virginia's governor's race. the question was it a referendum on the current commander in chief. we'll be listening to what president biden has to say about that as he returns to washington from overseas with democrats feeling the pinch at the ballot box and capitol hill. and the question is what could this mean for next year's midterms? and after defeating the houston astros, the atlanta braves for the first time since 1985. the question is, are braves fans still up right now celebrating this morning? it's "way too early" f