tv Your World With Neil Cavuto FOX News June 14, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm PDT
with it. we're good with it, guys. it's okay. >> martha: it's a tragedy. >> it is. the problem is the girls found out about it. her daughters found out about it. >> martha: we have to go. thanks very much. more to come on this story. that's "the story" for now. have a great afternoon, everybody. >> neil: it was the night before a rate hike and all about the house, not a buyer stirring for fear of losing their house. some say 3/4 points. all because inflation is out of control. another depressioning inflation number out today. so far jerome powell has not said a word, no bundle of toys he has on his back. just toughness he has yet to unpack. no telltale wing of his eye or twist of his head.
all we know is tomorrow powell will spring to his slay and his team a whistle. we don't know where he will fly. we probably don't know what a down of a thistle is, but we know what a down stock market is. so we want to hear something as st. jerome drives out of sight. it's that something that is giving us all of this fright. in the meantime, this night before we've got you covered for what could be in store, with legendary billionaire investoring ken fisher on why it's not action bad as you think and to powerful south dakota republicans who president biden said, you know, they don't stink. all that and adam kinzinger on the prancing and pawing on each january 6th member's hooves and how investors are already hit the roof. i'm neil cavuto. to finish this sort of holiday
theme, let's go to jacqui on news that might make you scream. it's a veer between christmas themes and dr. suess. take it from there. >> i think it was very eloquently put, neil. on in eve of the fed decision, odds are increasing that the fed will move more than expected. last time we got a half point interest rate hike. this time the market is pricing in a 90% chance that the fed move 3/4 of a point. goldman sachs economists are now expecting 75 basis points in june and july followed by a half point move in september and then a quarter point move in november and december. why are rates rising and what impact it has on the economy. the fed's target for inflation is 2%, well bolo the 8.6% reported friday. judged by the pricer index, up 10.8% last month. the expectation is that producers will continue to pass on the costs and higher prices
are here to stay for a while. under those circumstances when the fed raises the cost of borrowing, it slows down consumer and corporate spending. that can trigger a recession. history shows sometimes it's necessary when inflation gets to hot like it is now. one of the biggest contributors to inflation has been the rise in cost of fuel. $5.01 a gallon on average in this country. it's been difficult for consumers to keep up. couple that with the rise in cost of food and if the fed doesn't take action, demanned destruction is likely to slow the economy as well. the trouble is the white house expects the fed to solve the problem on its own. it's not that simple. without washington reigning in their checkbook, problems could persist and it could make it harder for this fed action to take effect. neil? >> neil: thanks, jackie. i want to go to peter doocy right now at the white house. if the fed is set to get hiking, i would imagine that those folks in the building behind you are
starting to get really worried. >> you would think. but they've been quiet on this today, neil. in fact, the only time we've seen the president he gave this rousing speech to union members in philadelphia where he admitted inflation is a problem but he said that dismal economic trends are not his problem. he thinks that the issue is really with messaging. >> i don't want to hear anymore of these lies about reckless spending. we're changing people's lives. >> so a messaging shift probably coming three top white house aides are headed to capitol hill to talk to democrats about that. the white house is trying to add december gas prices holding at anchorage -- average of $5 on an hour. and now a trip to saudi arabia to talk to the crown prince who he called a pariah. >> he shouldn't have called them
a pariah in the campaign. we've had differences with them but they've been an important partner in the middle east and to promote energy security across the country. >> president biden is not saying whether or not he favors the expected rate hikes as part of his inflation plan. he says it's just trusting the fed. the president is now arguing that despite everything he thinks he deserves some credit. >> jobs are back. prices are still too high. covid is down. gas prices are up. our work is not done. >> that's true. in the speech he said the only thing he can lower prices on quickly are prescription drugs. neil? >> neil: it's a start, i guess. to ken fisher, the billionaire. ken, good to have you here.
the expectation is we're going to certainly see rates rise tomorrow. but do you see 3/4 point raise? >> i don't have a clue. i've never believed there was much actual i.q. at the fed anyways. what is the difference? they'll to what they'll do. i actually think that because as i said to you before on your show, three months, ten-year spread has been widened all year long, it's a half a point or 3/4 is basically priced in and isn't going to make that much difference. >> neil: markets tend to respond a big move, whether it's justified or not. i wonder whether a 3/4 hike gets people thinking about the paul volcker years when he could do that routinely. that would scare them. you think that would scare them?
if they keep going and going big, if key oh the phrase is kneecapping. if the notion is to make everybody feel better you have to kneecap them and put them on the ground so they can rest, that will scare them. people tonight like to get kneecaped. >> neil: i worry about that. all kidding aside, how do you look at the markets? they tell more after falling yesterday. you hear this talk of capitulation where investors say the hell with it. i'm out. are we at the hell with it i'm out stage? >> so clearly we are not. but clearly, you know, when i look at my 115,000 clients across the world, we're not. but sometimes we don't have capitulation with the bottom. i'm increasing almost coming to the view that this is a period that will not have capitulation. partly because everybody is
looking for it. partly because this what i call a ghost busters market. you can't go anywhere. if you think about it, long bonds are negative in this period. inflation is up. you're going to go to cash, going to go to bonds? gold hasn't had any glitter. you don't want to go into residential real estate because it's been so pricey. you can't go into foreign currencies because the dollar has been so strong. who you going to call? i'm doing ghost busters. you did christmas. >> neil: your comparison is better. so the fact is it's hard to go somewhere. number 2, if you go back through all bear markets and corrections that are big defined as longer than five months or down more than 15%, you can actually only find three times where you had
the bear market and you had long bonds having significant negative returns. all three of those, the 1968 and 70 downturn, the first little direction before 80 and 90 bear market were all mild and had no capitulation. i think that is where we're going, but i'm going to make a point that i don't think most people think about at this moment in time. i think its an interesting one that i think people should just naturally think about. i don't think they do. we crossed over 20%. we closed there. official definition of a bear market. now you say to yourself, once you've gotten down 20, how long is it when you look at historical bears going back through history before you've
gotten to the bottom and you're back to above 20? the answer is just simply averages so it doesn't necessarily apply. but it's worth thinking about. the median is less than a month. >> neil: really? so there's not long to go with this? >> any given one is not necessarily the median. but the median is less than a month. it's less than another months before you're back to where you're above 20. a third of a month from the trough until you're back up above. that's the median. on average, it's a little longer. on mean average. >> neil: it's not a year's event. looking at the past, this idea that we go into a multiyear bear market akid to the 70s, you don't see that? >> kneecapping we certainly could. kneecapping and five more
terrible that could happen, you're right. >> generally, there's lots of people looking for the down side. inflation is annoying to be sure. the economy in the most vulnerable place in my mind when people say oh, my gosh, oh, my gosh, energy, energy is going to cap size things is western europe. western europe's economy is growing moderately. the u.s. i expect to have moderate growth. can i be wrong? of course i can. the fact of the matter is this is what people think it is. the terrible recession with the kneecapping. and i think, and i hope that after the fed does whatever they do tomorrow, they take a couple of breaths and wait awhile and let's see what happens before they do anything that might be
too extreme because i don't believe we need to create a recession. >> neil: so if you don't creation a recession -- we remember we're having audio difficulties with you. that's why i jumped on you. when we talked about the 70s experience, i always hasten to add through folks -- i lived lu that. i don't see the similarities. i see stronger job creation, robust. we see packed theaters, packed planes, packed a lot of things. that could dial back as prices move up. i don't see that comparison justified yet. >> absolutely. importantly in my opinion, you're 100% correct. when we think back on that period, it actually started from the 50s in to the 60s with slowly building inflation that just did a little more and a little more and a little more
and continues in to the 70s until you get to very painful levels. this time we had very, very low inflation until last year. then we started going straight on up. a lot of that as i said on the show for you before, a lot of that, not all, has been caused by supply chain problems, which will eventually unwind, and this is very different than the 70s. it's still possible that the fed and other central bank dos stupid stuff. they're good at it. they have experience and training to do stupid stuff. but think is a market that is likely to not need capitulation to bottom because there's not a lot of easy places to go. the fact is you go into bonds right now what do you people expect? they expect to lose money. if i go to cash, who wants to go to cash with a high inflation rate that they fear? who wants to do any of the
crypto? you mean gypto? where are you going to go? so i don't think you're getting the traditional forms of capitulation. i know that listing through some, sometimes you get bottoms to bear markets that are not too extreme that you don't have capitulation. they think of capitulation as panic pitching of stocks in volume. the volume in this time period has been light. >> neil: we'll watch it closely. my christmas theme and your kneecapping theme, we've got something here. so i just wanted to leave you with that. ken fisher, very good catching up with you. >> thank you. >> neil: ken fisher, billionaire investor. we're going to follow that he talked about the supply chain issue. it's a two big issue for two prominent republican lawmakers. they called out in a favorable
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>> inflation, it's sapping the strength of a lot of families. the republican is, republican congressmen are doing everything that they can to stop my plan to bring don costs. >> neil: not all republicans. president biden might have been accusing republicans that could fight inflation. but now these praising two prominent south dakota politicians for doing their part to give some help and give bipartisan support. he was talking about senator john thune, the senate minority whip and dusty johnson, south dakota congressman. both instrumental in looking at shipping costs and how to get them under control. welcome to both of you. i don't know whether that is in your next campaign commercial. have president biden raising you there. but there he was. you stood out on something like this. what drove you to it? first to you, senator. >> well, neil, we were hearing
from agricultural interests in south dakota and their challenges. it was coupled with the challenges people are having getting goods in to the country. and so these supply chain issues are coming more of a prominent issue for people that we represent. so ironically, two people from the middle of the country, the house and the senate, work together to try to do something to clear up a lot of that congestion at the west coast ports. got this bill through the house, through the senate. dusty got it through the house and on the president's desk. we hope it makes a difference. >> obviously a good deal of support for that. congressman, to you on what the this might signal going forward. there's ways in which both sides can find common ground. in a mid-term election year, this is by far more the exception than the rule. does that worry you? >> i think that's why -- i'm so disappointed with the president's rhetoric.
he says republicans are trying to do everything we can to get in his way. if his idea of breaking inflation is by spending trillions of dollars more, yeah, we'll stand against that. that is only going to make things worse. john thune says we're not on an island here, this passed unanimously out of the senate. it had 370 votes out of the house. when it comes to real solutions to make sure foreign flagged ocean carriers are doing right by american manufacturers and ago producers, you'll have strong bipartisan support for that. the president should call that out than just playing politics. >> neil: the one thing the president said that stood out to me, this idea that shipping costs have been rigged against the consumer and gone up 1,000%. do you know where he got that 1,000% and whether they were the culprits behind a lot of this inflation? >> the culprit behind the inflation is excessive
government spending, wasteful government spending coming out of the $2 trillion tax and spending spree the democrats pushed through a year ago. their solution to solve that is to spend more. obviously they want to do another $5 trillion on top of that. that coupled with energy policies that have driven up the cost of gasoline. supply chain issues? yes, there's issue there's. we get at that. and the inflationary pressures that we're seeing have everything to do with the president and his policies and the american people are paying the price of the that. >> neil: you have the supply chain issues when it comes to shipping costs. the question will be, congressman, is that immediate? will the impact of what you put pen to paper ease at least that part of it? the president says there's a bad inflationary situation and
making it worse. >> our bill doesn't do anything to fix pricing. we're not going to have republicans be in favor of price fixing. what this will do, make sure the foreign flagged ocean carriers have to play fair. last year, 60% of the containers they hauled back to asia were held empty. at the time we had rotting ag production on the dock. >> neil: where is this originate something. >> we gave the american people trillions of dollars. that increased spending on discretionary electronic items that they buy from asia. the demand for that doubled. so all of these ships got filled up with iphones. the ocean carriers didn't want to haul american goods. they would use our ports but they didn't want to haul our
goods. they would go back to asia to get more iphones. our legislation says if they use u.s. ports and they have cargo space available, they better take american corn, beans, dairy, beef and manufactured goods. that will make a big difference. >> neil: senator, sounds like there's a part of truth in what the president is says, how some characters can take a bad situation and make it worse. i know you don't agree this extends to the oil destroy that might be gouging on top of gouging. there's now study to prove it happened in the past or even now. be u.s. -- but this feeds cynicism that shipping companies take a bad thing and make it worse. you think some of that is going on? >> i don't think there's any questions, which is what our legislation gets at, that a lot of these foreign flagged vessels
were discriminating against american products. we made it easier, made the rules more clear and provide add mechanism whereby a lot of our shippers can get recourse against some of these unfair practices implemented by the foreign carriers. in china -- and dusty is right. this is function of partly the relationship with china and trying to maximize their profits to penalize american agriculture and other exportsn't a a time when we needed to get them to their destinations overseas. so this clarify as lot of the rules around that. makes it easier to punish and penalize bad behavior and hopefully make a big difference at the ports. so the simply answer to your question is, yes, china and other places around the world taking full advantage of the united states at a time when we needed to have them working in that transparent way and not discriminating against our products. >> if we want a real solution to
inflation, we don't just need china to stop discriminating against american goods. we need our own president to stop discriminating against american energy. these gas prices are insane. it's clearly an -- puts upward pressure on inflation. the fact that you go to saudi arabia and beg these guys to bail us out but won't look to ethanol and american production of gas and oil is beyond my understanding. >> neil: gentleman, thank you both. so there's progress there. not on all issues, but it's remarkable to witness. thanks very much. meantime, security protects our justices on the supreme court. they're making progress. that doesn't mean the protests outside justices homes have stopped. hard eating healthy. unless you happen to be a dog.
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to be a coincidence. >> neil: it's not justice kavanaugh's home. now samuel alito is getting the same treatment outside his home. this as congress rustles with a bill to protect our justices. it's easier said than done. david spunt has more. >> intense emotions on the house floor at the capitol this afternoon over protecting security justices and members of their staff and those justices immediate family members. the house voted 396 to 27 to go ahead and pass the senate bill, get it over to the white house and the president's desk. he will sign it as soon as possible. u.s. supreme court justices have
protection by the u.s. marshall service and by the u.s. supreme court police. this bill will extend protection to immediate family members and also some of the staff members that work inside the supreme court if deemed necessary by the marshall of the court. neil, this comes not a week after a man threatened to kill justice brett kavanaugh outside of his maryland home. members of congress in both parties were frustrated. this bill took so long to come to the house floor today. >> the speaker of the house, democrats have delayed it more than a month. the question to the american public is why. why would you delay it? >> steny hoyer told reporters the reason for the delay, democrats wanted to offer protection to family members of court employees if deemed necessary by supreme court officials. so for example, not only family members of justice kavanaugh, but family members of justice
kavanaugh's clerks and other staff members. that did not make it in to the final bill. some democrats wanted it in there. >> let me tell you why it took us a few weeks rather than a week to pass this legislation. because republicans refuse to protect the families of supreme court employees who are at risk. shame on you for not doing that. by the way, there's threats to justices across the board. i support this legislation. >> the protest outside justice alito's virginia home follow days of protest at justice barrett's home, justice thomas and brett kavanaugh. late this afternoon we're finding out that senators bill haggerty from tennessee, a republican, and mark warner a democrat from virginia, have come together in a bipartisan way to allocate 10.3 million to the u.s. marshall service for security needs for the u.s. supreme court justices.
also $9 million to the supreme court as a whole to help them keep up the pace with the security needs. neil? >> thank you very much for that. david spunt in our nation's capitol. taking a close look at a test for the trump bump in south carolina. actually trump bumps. two candidates being followed closely after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing the all-new infiniti qx60. take on your wild world in style. ♪
>> neil: well, primaries across the country today. it's a test for the trump bump in south carolina where you have two candidates that could be on the right or the wrong side of that bump. let's get the very latest from mark meredith in south carolina. mark? >> neil, good afternoon to you. the polls are still open all across south carolina. we're looking to see what turnout will be like. no matter what, these races have generated a lot of national interest because political
analysts are trying to figure out whether former president trump's endorsement matters to primary voters or not. here in charleston, trump candidate katie arrington tried to get out the vote. she's challenging the sitting republican house member. arrington has run for congress before but lost in 2018. she's betting on trump support and a fed up washington mentally will make the difference. >> he's still polls in the 80s in this congressional district. he's the heart of the republican party right now. he represents hope. there's going be a better tomorrow. >> arrington's opponent, nancy mace, that was once endorsed by trump is now considered to be by him a horrible person. she's criticized trump's behavior since the 2020 election while she's staunchedly conservative, she's trying to focus on other things like the economy and proud to tout the
support of the biggest names including nikki haley. >> nancy mace is a conservative fightner this race. she's the person that i want representing me. she's the one that i know south carolinians want representing them. >> trump is dominating in other races. tom rice is trying to hold on to his congressional seat. he's been in congress several years but now fighting off against six other republicans in a primary challenge. rice has been getting a lot of criticism when he came out swinging following the 2020 election. he voted to impeach trump in 2021. he's backing russell frye in today's contest. it's possible that that race will go to a run off. we still may have to wait a couple weeks to get a wetter. it's interesting here in the palmetto state. >> neil: thanks, mark. to congressman adam kinzinger investigating january 6.
congressman, good to have you here with us. >> good to be with you. >> neil: we're learning right now that i think a little more than 100 of these republican primary winners that were largely backed by donald trump had, you know, followed his claims that there was 2020 voter fraud going on. does that sheer number surprise you? >> i wish i said it did surprise me. not really. let's keep in mind, the former president does pick a lot of who he endorses based on what he thinks will win or who is ahead in the polls. look, it is sad to watch. i'm heart broken by watching my party go from the party of ronald reagan, a commitment to truth, understanding america's role in the world to a party that frankly's leaders know better. they know the election was not stolen. now focusing how to turn back to the american people and sell a
conservative vision for government, we're still relitigating 2020 and presending like the system is broken. when you convince half of the country or 30% that if they vote it doesn't count, that's how democracies fail. that's the only basic contract that we have to have is, if you vote it counts. >> neil: so where does this go? the hearings have gone on for -- i know this one tomorrow was pushed back a little bit. i'm just wondering when it's your sense that trump lovers will still love him. trump haters will hate him. it really won't move the needle. what do you think of that? >> i don't know if it moves the need until the short term. i think your setup is right. a lot of people are committed to president trump. no matter what we put out there. these are facts aformer trump appointees are saying this stuff. and we talk about the fact that $200 million was raised by people that thought that they were going to stop the steal and
none of that was used for it. in the long-term and what matters to me because i like to think in historical perspective, in five or ten years, the truth will be written in the history backs and it won't be controversial because of the work we're doing here. i think the republican party eventually comes back to its senses and focuses on policy again and constitution and not commitment to a man. i wish it was sooner than it will be. >> neil: a lot of people that look at you and your stance and your role in this committee think that it's something that was borne of the president's behavior at the time on january 6 or prior. actually it goes back to the 2016 election where you renews to support him outright. i am wondering though whether if he survives this and runs for president again he might have a very good chance. you're worried about that. you've said that donald trump
unleashed and getting the office again could do a number of things. what did you mean by a number of things? >> look, what donald trump has learned is people you put in positions around the department of justice except that instead of people committed to the constitution. you put people loyal to you. as we lay out, we came very close to the doj doing the work of donald trump and not standing firm. that's the risk we run. so i can't support donald trump even if he's the republican nominee in the future. i want to say this to fellow republicans. we have a really good shot in winning at 2024. look at the economy and the other issues. let's put a person in there in 2024 that is committed to truth like we learned in sunday school, committed to the constitution, and is going to raise money from you for the purposes they're using it, not abuse you in your truth to raise money from you. >> neil: so if donald trump were the nominee in 2024, would you
support the democratic nominee? i don't know what you did in 2016 that year. >> that year i wrote somebody in. probably would i would do again. not a democrat. i don't think this trump republican moment. >> neil: you have said and others on the committee have said that a number of republicans after the january 6th insurrection had been seeking pardons from then president trump. one of them you cited was scott perry of pennsylvania. denies that was the case. how many did according to you? they say none of that happened. >> well, i'll just say stay tuned that will come out. we want to do that with the right way. stay tuned on that. the bigger story here is a lot of these people and i would argue after january 6 almost every member of congress i know knew exactly what happened and knew what led to it.
we just have a bit of amnesia at the moment. >> neil: now, you opted not to run for congress again. i'm wondering, given the fact that many people who did take on the president have survived to fight another day, whether they voted outright for impeachment or critical of donald trump after the fact. has that in retrospect made you regret opting not to run? >> no, it hasn't. a couple of things. at the end of this term, i'll be in congress for 12 years. that's a long time. it's a long time to be traveling, to be going through the i'm is a battles over and over. i want to focus on a broader message around the country so it goes in conflict with congress. the democrats like they did in 2010 drew me in to a congressional district with another republican member of congress. so i have no regrets about not running again. i think it was time anyway.
12 years is quite a bit of time out here. >> neil: you survived districts that are molded together in the past. having said that, we had bill barr, the former attorney general on here and he's very critical of the comment saying there was b.s., no rigging going on here. he said today he doesn't see grounds for any criminal charges against the former president. do you? will the committee move in your view to file criminal charges not only against president trump but maybe others? >> yeah, let's be clear. we can't file charges. >> neil: you go to the justice department. >> we can refer. keep in mind, too, this investigation is still on going. even after these hearings we're continuing until the report. the decision the committee will make on that. i look at this and say there appears to be a multiprong plan that the president try to in essence have a soft coup to
overcome the election. to me it looks criminal. i'll live the criminal charges to the department of justice. the american people need to know. if this a democratic administration in the future, we have to hold firm to the rule of law. >> neil: if you had your ruthers if you were looking at the president presented and petition yourself to the justice department to take up those charges and to pursue them and it doesn't, would that disappoint you? >> no, i wouldn't be disappointed. when i started this and when the committee started this, the point is to put out the facts. i look at this exercise more what is this going to say for the history books. how can this fix the country going forward. neil, the threat is not over. it continuing. nothing has changed. that's what i look for in terms of the impact, the future of
this country hand democracy. >> neil: very good catching up with you. thanks very much. >> you bet. >> neil: we'll have more after this, and a reminder that inflation is still out of control, but it's where its out of control that's getting a lot of people's attention. i'll explain after this. ♪♪ you inspired the lexus es to be, well... more you. so thank you. we hope you like your work. ♪♪ ♪ ♪ 100 years ago, a beautiful empire built on black excellence was booming. black wall street. it was a sight to be seen. until one day, it was all burned to the ground. but fire is no match for the fire
♪ ♪ >> neil: all right, you might be moving out, but going to cost you dearly finding a place to live when you do, because their bidding wars going on for rebel apartments, homes, all of that stuff and is now officially out of control. seeing it for themselves a new york city. what's going on here? >> hey, neil, at this point we are all aware of the hot housing market and how difficult it has been to buy a home. many people priced out of that. but now as a secondary cause or issue from that is that the rental market is also jumping. americans are now being priced out of their homes that they currently live in and rent, that's because of the race we are singing today. looking at redfin they say the median rent in the u.s. has reached over $2,000, the highest they have ever seen on record
that is creating a problem with the 15% and unfortunately the problem is not going anywhere. >> who are living in an apartment, they have not been faced with the increase yet and may still be on the same lease, so by the time they go out to find a new apartment or get a lease renewal they will probably be get hit with an increase of more than what they would like. and we will continue to see that happen for at least the next year. >> right, so people right now trying to get into an apartment are out building it meant outbidding each other and people living in their apartments are seeing huge increases in certain areas are worse than others, the top five cities with the fastest rising rent to truly have shocking increase is taking a look at cincinnati, seattle, and nashville also rent increase by 32% and in austin, texas, rance went up nearly 50 percent in just one year. while the federal reserve bank of new york does expect to see the housing market when it comes
to purchasing, expecting that to come down because of mortgage rates and all of the other factors in the economy of the issue is that we are not expecting the rental market to do the same, because the bottom line is it is about inventory. the people that have not been able to get into homes that can't buy homes and still can't buy homes, they are renting and there is only so much inventory on the market. so if you have a lease coming up soon, prepared to shop around and don't be surprised if your landlord comes with a new shocking number. neil. >> neil: the landlord holds all the cards, medicine, thank you very much. i wonder what jerry baker thinks of this, the wall street at a door at large, cracker jack rider as well. and today "wall street journal" talking about the cost of wishful thinking on inflation that is going away. and he spreads the blame and the wealth effect on making it more costly from the federal reserve to the administration and the hosts of others. good to see you. >> thank you for having me.
>> neil: it's interesting, madison another wrinkle where we have people bidding on rent to get that hopeful apartment. it is pretty rampant and widespread, what are you thinking? >> yes, housing shelter as i call it is one of the big drivers of the big increasing consumer price index, the shocking one we saw in may and reported last week. look, this is the problem. this inflation is now embedded deeply into the economy. it has been steadily increasing over the course of the last 18 months. it was dismissed by policymakers, you're right, i was critical of the column today both the biden administration, and also the federal reserve because of this wishful thinking. i say there are three phase is to the way that the government has responded to the crisis, the first is denial denying that anything has gone on and anything wrong happening at all, that we have complacency which says it's fine or somebody else is to blame, whatever and then
the wishful thinking part which is we can take care of it, it's no problem and we will be able to handle it in the fed will raise interest rates and everything will be fine. i fear that the problem is so much worse and from that report you just showed indicating how deep this inflation goes into the system, the idea that even i think going to raise 75 basis points tomorrow and probably again in july and september. >> jessica: you think it is three quarters of a point now? >> oh coming out. i find that extremely -- having "the wall street journal," we had a story, the newspaper had a story just before the close of the market saying essentially that the fed was looking at 75 basis points, i think that they would not have done that if they were going to do it. it would be disappointing to a lot of people if they looked at 50 tomorrow. but even if they do 375 basis points in the next three months, that only takes us up to a federal funds rate of just 3%. of the last time inflation was as high back in the early 1980s we had a federal funds
rate of 20 percent at one point, this is not -- i am not suggesting, no one thinks we need to go that high. it's not necessary, but the idea that this signal became fluent and taken care of with a bit of a quick dose of tightening and then inflation will go away and i'll be fine, that is wishful thinking. >> neil: i was way too young to remember rates that high, but i have read it in history books. i am wondering, normally your rates that the fed can roll had us to match the inflation rate. if we are at eight plus percent inflation even going aggressively as he pointed out, we would only be a third to a quarter where we should be. so then i start wondering how high is high? >> yeah, look, i'm sure you don't remember those days. i thought you might have been around when the federal reserve was founded, neil. >> neil: a deer a member sadly. [laughter] speak of the bank of england where i came from thomas 1694
just before i was born. so this is a problem, this is deeply, deeply embedded and not just the economy, but in expectations too, one of the scary things we saw in addition to the cpr report last week was eight americans expectations of consumer price increases in the next couple of years have shot up really significantly. and that goes through wage demands, you are also seeing this phenomenon of 8.5% consumer inflation, wages rising at maybe five, most people are seeing their real incomes, their spending power eroded by one of the largest declines we have seen in recent history. they are going to want to catch up, the labor market height, the employers can find people to come and work. they are going to pay a lot more and that will increase their costs even more in than the past year. i don't want to paint too bleak picture for those with a sensitive disposition, but this is going to take a while to get out.
inflation is not conquered in a space of a few months, neil, that is history and i'm afraid that we are going to repeat that. >> neil: jerry baker, "wall street journal" at large with jerry baker, you have to read it and watch it to appreciate every thing going on. by the way, he was referring to of course what the federal reserve does tomorrow and expectations are that it raises rates as much as three quarters of a point, then what? here is "the five." ♪ ♪ >> jesse: hello, i am jesse watters along with judge jeanine perino, geraldo rivero, greg got filed. it's 5:00 in new york city, and this is "the five." speak of the way that we see this is that the american people are well-positioned to face these challenges because of the economic historic gains that we have made under this president, under the president in the last 16 months. >> jesse: the white house spinning like there is no