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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  July 7, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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neil: all right. this is the best four-day performance for the markets since at least mid-march. we could have a winning week at that we shall see. here is charles payne. >> party time on wall street. neil, thank you so much. love the tie. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." we have a little bit of a rally. hoping to become something much greater. buyers buoyed that inflation is past and recession will be shallow. the question is how nimble do you have to be to be able to play the bear market rallies. i have a panel of market experts that show you how to take advantage of the big bear bounces. we'll go to chart school for a
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blueprint when the coast is really clear. j.c. parets is in studio. confidence in major institutions plummeting. which institution is at the boat of your list? i would love to hear from you. tweet me @cvpayne. the u.s. celebrates the fact hungry people in the world. they scrubbed it but i printed it out. accountability might be around the corner. that is great news for individual investors. in fact all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right. so fence-sitters continue to take baby steps back into this market, right? in part because worries about runaway inflation are beginning to morph into worries about recession. you say, golly that seems even worse, maybe counterintuitive. think about it, having no job being more attractive than one
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not keeping up with inflation. here is the thing, all of this maybe gets the fed to back off. we know their dual mandate includes full employment. we saw continued jobless claims, i will show it to you right here, they are beginning to skyrocket much higher. in addition to this, we saw a surge in layoff announcements and maybe, just maybe the jobs boom could be over. meanwhile wall street with an avalanche of target downgrades. you should see how many companies are downgraded. more and more companies are lowering their own guidance. every upside move in the bear market rally is just that, a bear market rally, even if it's a double-digit move. the question, how do you navigate these new circumstances? joining me, ubs private wealth management sarah ponsak. we saw mortgage rates, sarah, came down a lot. 5.3%. still relatively high of course, here is the thing, that was the biggest drop, weekly drop since 2008. everyone is saying it is because of recession f that is the case
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do you start to change your approach to this market? >> so markets are definitely flip-flopping between trading on inflation fears, trading on recession fears. it is very clear, we've seen that over the past couple weeks. commodity prices are plummeting. energy stocks, with real reversal. we've seen reversal in bond yields. as you mentioned in the introduction it is interesting now like you said you would think okay, if we are entering a recession is that a bad thing for the stock market and yet stocks are rallying because interest rates are falling on expectations the fed might not have to be as aggressive. charles: right. >> there is a couple numbers i want to point out. one if you actually look at the average drawdown, the length of it in the wake of a recession it typically lasts 12 months or a little over six months in, you do have to level your expectations. we're probably witnessing the volatility for very much time to come. it is not just going to disappear even though we're having a nice four-day rally which is nice to see, that could
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be easily reversed. sit tight and prepare yourself for any further down -- charles: sarah, saying sit on your hands, don't even try to participate in these kind of bounces we're getting? >> i would say as of now we're definitely not saying trade in and out of these bounces because it is so difficult to do for the average investor and what can happen you can get stuck on the wrong side of the trade. then you find yourself chasing rallies or you fine yourself sitting out of the market and that is not where you want to be caught because we all know when the market turns it can turn very quickly. so what we are saying you sit tight for now, hopefully you made some changes in preparation to your portfolio in the beginning of the year, so you're somewhere a little bit more comfortable f we continue to see the market decline which we believe is very much possible, if you look at the average decline in the case of deep recessions, not saying if we get a recession it is going to be deep but typically closer to
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34%. if we see more downside in the market you want to be sure you're prepared at that point to rebalance out of cash, rebalance out of bonds at that point. move into stocks then, so you can take advantage of any upside that is more reliant once the clouds clear a little bit more, we have more of an idea where inflation and the fed are headed, not just what they're saying they're going to do. charles: one thing i am seeing though, the forward p-e ratio, that is a big debate on wall street and it is holding a lot of folks back but i want to show check out the number of companies that, these are companies that are offering higher guidance. we can see is really peaked last year. now it is coming down really hard. these are adjustments along with the s&p itself. they're both moving downs adjustments are being made. when we both get to the level that stocks are fairly priced, even cheap, wouldn't you want to be in them before the recession turns? >> so you're right but the big question here is, we've obviously seen a very large decline in stocks this year.
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the s&p is down about 20%. that was all driven by the pe in p-e multiples, by price due to interest rates rising. now the question, and as you mentioned we're starting to see estimates come down but we'll get more details once earnings season begins next week, the big question will we see a second leg lower as we see earnings contract and come in? that is the million dollar question everyone is trying to figure out right now. charles: right. >> we do believe, we're going to continue to see volatility and we will position hopefully for the a run-up when that time comes but we think we're not quite there yet and we want to get through this earnings season. charles: i want to bring in my good friend, phil orlando is joining us. phil, let me start with the notion that there will be a bear market bounces. some will be thick, healthy, nice. in fact on the individual side, it will not be uncommon for stocks to move up, nine, 10, 20% in a week.
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do investors take the chance jumping in to take advantage of the bear market bounces or wait to run its course? >> no. charles, we've actually seen three dead-cat bounces of about 10% or so over the last four months. we've used that as an opportunity again to sell into strength, raise a little bit of cash. we're sitting with an 8% cash allocation right now, which is the largest cash allocation we've had in the 20 years that i've been at federated. i agree with sarah, second-quarter earnings, i think will be very challenging and we're going to start those in about a week and i'm not quite sure that the market has fully priced in the shrinking of the profit margins, the higher labor costs, commodity costs, transportation costs, inventory problems, et cetera. that's going to result we think in some downward -- happy to buy
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into that bottom sometime later in the summer, early in the fall once we get some of this bad news behind us. i don't think the market is completely figured that out just yet. charles: one thing i'm see something a shift. we've got the chart here. for a long time we always bought more services. the yellow line was services. that all changed during the pandemic. again it is starting to happen. we're starting to put a lot more money into services, inflation in part. how many refrigerators can you buy? phil, when you do decide to buy, i'm sure you're probably honing your list right now, would this have an influence on it where we're spending money? >> absolutely and our friends at target who profit warned twice over the last couple of months you know, have talked about this. they have got a problem with inventory. the stuff that is finally coming from china they ordered six or 12 or 18 months ago, is the wrong stuff which is to say not
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the stuff consumers want right now. the price points are wrong. so they're marking stuff down in order to try to work the inventory back to reasonable levels. consumers, we shifted over to services now. so it is sort of a game of "whack-a-mole" in terms of what is going to work, what are the consumers interested in? is it services or is it goods? and right now services are running hot. charles: right. we've run out of time, sarah, phil, great starting this show off with you, very important, very pivotal moment in this bear market. thank you both very much. all right folks, coming up we'll talk about the oil rout because maybe that is turning around because gold, i have to be honest with you, my next guest says it is sending an unfortunate message for believers. j.c. parets joins me for chart school in studio next. ♪
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♪. charles: listen to, say it has been a brutal year would be an understatement. even the winners, right, have had their comeuppance and right now nothing feels safe.
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the question everyone is asking, when may that change? we have all-star charts founder, j.c. parets. one of your colleagues at all-star put together a staircase new bull mark. he said it's a process, not an event. this is lot to go over right now. we're not trying to do that but caught my eye is the target level, where we are. 64 is a long way from 90. 17 is a long way from 90. and 6 is a long way from 55. so a lot of things have to happen before we're in the clear, right? >> we have forgotten, charles, this is market of stocks. not just a stock market. s&p 500, are more of them going up, are more of them going down? we have a series of ways more of them are trending higher, higher volume to the upside, all those things. at the end of the day we have 32 consecutive weeks of more stocks
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making new lows than new highs. in bull markets we see the opposite effect. until we see more stocks making new highs than new lows, is it hard to have conviction to upside even to the mean reversion. bear markets get vicious rallies, strong uptrends. in some cases it's a mean reversion and other cases it is an initial thrust off the bottom but we don't know until after the fact. charles: one thing you talked a lot about sort of the power. this is the semiconductor index, the power, look at this downtrend. it bobses off the bottom of the bottom of the channel to the top of the channel and goes back down. there was a good news out of samsung. there are a lot of charts that look like this, is there a point you think this is a buy, the worst is over? we'll not wait for it to get back all the way back here, right? >> semiconductors are in a unique situation they're more cyclical in nature versus some of the other technology companies like maybe like
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internet or software, you know, things like robinhood, those ark funds. they're much more growthy than something like semiconductors. semiconductors are like notre dame. they're not in a conference. they're in their own, we think of it like that in college football terms. charles: right. >> if you're looking for that bounce in those growth areas i don't think semis where you want to go. i think you are in semis if you think the cyclical rally we've seen, saw last year anyway can continue to move forward. charles: what about software because they have been acting pretty good, some software names are acting pretty nicely? >> if you're looking for the juice, the beta, those got hit the worse. more they sell off the faster they bounce. if you're looking for the juice software is one of those you look. charles: you wrote about gold today on twitter. i got the gold chart up five or six years. it is interesting. something of a perfect double top and pulled back. the important thing, hard to see here but breaking through the
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trend line. this was supposed to be higher, this was supposed to be the recession play. what about people who held it for all these years, okay i'm holding this because of recession, how should they feel right now? >> goes back to why you don't listen to fairly tales and actually look at the price which is the reality of the matter, right? we vent seen any evidence this is kind of a inflation hedge. you have some select data points in the '70s, maybe. at the end of the day we have to sell things higher prices where we buy them and the trend here has not been up for two years now, right? since august of 2020, so until we're able to break out above the highs, not a coincidence, charles, are the same levels they peaked at 2011. we're still absorbing the overhead supply. in my opinion i think one day we break out. why do we have to be in a such a rush? let it break out. charles: before i let you go the most important thing you're telling investors right now? >> i think first of all identify what your time time horizon is,e
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you trying to make money this week, this decade, who are you? we all have different time horizons, different objectives, and risk tolerances stick to that. charles: jc, my man. great, great stuff. meantime oil is rebounding after a couple of bruising weeks. how to make money off the volatility. also we talked about gold failing as a hedge for inflation. i want to know what you think, because, we are hosting a new event a new event coming up, a new town hall, "inflation in america," the hangover edition, folks. we printer ad ton of money. we're paying for it. july 26th. email the question or better join me in studio. email us at we'll be right back. ♪
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♪. charles: so crude oil rising today. this of course after sliding hard and fast. now there is a report from the new york fed that says this price decline over the past two weeks was due from low demand goldman though on the other hand that oil is down on recession fears. that the big move downside was overshoot and current oil deficit remains unsolved. i want to bring in development chartest, tracy shugart. i imagine, trace did i, you agree with gold machine? >> yeah. fall started in the u.s. equity markets on the fifth postholiday low liquidity which coincided with a broader based decline in the commodities market and other risky assets. it was the case in oil the move was exacerbated by technical
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factors and cda trends following flows. really and then the move continued yesterday with some large positions having to liquidate. so fundamentally there is no reason for this selloff. in fact the spreads were exploding higher as the front month price was forced down. this implies tightness in the physical markets. >> so you know as a consequence this week, it may be hard to believe or even fathom two weeks ago. xle, energy sector, down 20% from the a 52-week high. that is greater drawdown than even technology. would you be a buyer of some of these stocks, some of the oil stocks down here? they look cheap to me? >> yeah. if you're a longer term investor these pullbacks are a great opportunity if you're looking to hold say over the next two, three, five years. if you're a shorter term trader i definitely would urge caution in these volatile markets. charles: with that in mind commodities also bouncing. anything there standing out?
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again has anything become undervalued? a lot of big gains have been erased. >> really, i really like agriculture here aside from oil of course. i mean this recent pullback in the sector does not reflect the fundamentals at all. i mean i talk to a lot of farmers and, for instance, u.s. corn supply is going to be down 2.6% while year-over-year and that's assuming we have record yields this year. so dell this pullback, i think it is nice opportunity to get in that sector. charles: there is scuttlebutt out there, china ready to drop $200 billion, another stimulus package if you will. how would that impact commodities? >> obviously this is great news for the commodity markets in particular, based on industrial metals. that said they have issued new stimulus plans coupleed with the new announcement today i think market waits for a clearer
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picture before we see the metals market. charles: you talk to the farmers, i got to till farmers in europe what is it going on. feels like the european countries have gone to war with farmers. what is that all about? >> european green policies once again. netherlands enacted new rules reduce nitrogen in the air by 12 to 70% depending area where you live. mind you the air we breathe is 70% nitrogen. to reduce nitrogen is insane. they want to farmers to reduce cattle herds 70% to cut down on methane. this will have farmers forcibly close down and ranches. literally thousands are set to lose their livelihoods. charles: that is so crazy. they're complain about russia and the war in ukraine because they gave up any chance of having their own energy
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independence. they complain about ukraine being the food basket of europe. now they will give that up even more. really it is madness, it is insane. tracy, always appreciate it. thank you so much, my friend. >> thanks, charles. charles: so another rhine keeps going with the stimulus packages over and over again is the residual impact of one-child policy which will hurt their plans to take over the united states as preeminent country in the world. they have tax and housing credits, educational benefits, even cash incentives to encourage women to have more children. joining me independent women's forum policy analyst inez stepman. you have to grow the population to have a thriving economy, and especially i think in this country. we have so much debt, we owe so much money. we promised so many people through social security. it feels like we're going down the same path that china is
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already telling us is a huge mistake. >> well, this really does this is a really obvious example of the failures of central planning, right? once you violate peoples rights with the one child policy. now they're frantically offering incentives to reverse that when they see the economic impact of the population turning so sharply down. problem for them the sex imbalance. there are many more men and women in upcoming generations of chinese people. charles: which was also manufactured, deliberately manufactured there as well. let's face it, they wanted families to have one male child for a few decades and it is backfiring on them big time. what i find interesting with this now, i was reading where china, these benefits they're offering, they don't offer them to single women or ethnic minorities. it just makes me wonder, like this global effort to stop ethnic minorities, you know, from having children, from procreating i don't even understand what that is all about? >> i think the chinese have
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shown over and over again how much respect they have for their ethnic minorities there. restrictions on marriage are tied to a bunch of sociological data on single parents with children. i'm sure that factors into it. these programs don't have enormous success changing the trajectory, the number of children people have is not just economic choice but a cultural choice. only a few countries, hungary among them managed to move the needle with a lot of programs. u.s. programs are based on totally different demographics. when we created social security people were living into the early 70s, they were having four children. now we're having one to two children living well into our 80s. that changes math on a lot of our programs too. charles: let me ask but the "gallup poll" out yesterday, just devastating. confidence down across the board for every institution, the most was for president, down 15 percentage points. what is that all about?
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>> this is the most important story in american politics and our culture the last five to seven years. we've seen an enormous drop-off particularly in the last two years in trust in virtually every institution. one of the most remarkable things in the poll is drop-off republicans in kind of traditional conservative institutions. that would be the military, the police, institutions like that. banks, for example. we're really seeing across the board a lack of trust in our institutions and the institutions really earned that trust. charles: i was going to say that. when you say for instance, the police for instance, more importantly, let's say military, large corporations, you know, i feel like this woke movement too is moving the needle. before companies would provide goods and services. if they were great we loved it, we appreciated it. we certainly appreciate the military. we know that freedom isn't free but feels like the command has nothing to do with rank-and-file is really pushing that the needle. >> with the military, a lot of
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moves, these ads going after woke demographic. in terms of big business, it is positions, cultural positions that some of these big companies are taking. the look the way disney's popularity has plunged plunged r fight versus florida governor ron desantis, right, for their woke, embracing of the woke agenda. that has really hurt them in popularity. i think you're seeing that, both the woke stuff and it is ideology combined with the incredible incompetence we've seen across the board in all u.s. institutions for the last few years. charles: i've got 20 seconds. does it have to get a whole lot worse before it might get better? >> depends on the institutions themselves. they're willing to do the hard work of regaining american trust right now. they don't look look they're interested. they want to blame it on the entire u.s. being racist, or russia -- charles: blame game. >> yeah instead of themselves. that is why they lost the trust. charles: it is really a shame. great seeing you. it has been far too long. appreciate it, inez. >> likewise. charles: we have the host of the
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mark moss show. he will join us how people at the top, talking about the very top around the world, have admitted to benefiting from world hunger. there is no rush to fix it. we have kenny polcari on deck. we'll talk about the market. is he buying? he has been pretty smart about everything. hopefully he will give us some good signals now. we'll be right back. ♪ who's on it with jardiance? we're managing type 2 diabetes and heart risk. we're hittin' the trails between meetings.
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that 3% number, that is the demarcation line triggering selling above it and below it. market participants looking for peak inflation. the fed hoping the fed will do an about-face. joining me slatestone chief market strategist kenny polcari. kenny, before we start, bullard is speaking right now. he said we have a good chance at a soft landing. what do you think? [laughter] >> there is no way we're having a soft landing. i said a couple weeks ago, soft and landing don't belong in the same sentence anymore. i'm shocked, curious how he thinks exactly they will create the soft landing. i'm not really hoping for a hard landing i'm really not but i don't see how a soft landing is anywhere in anyone's eyesight at all. charles: maybe like art, in the eye of the beholder. i don't know. what do you think -- >> they can always change, they can always change the definition of soft landing the same way
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they change the definition of what a recession is. charles: great point. what do you make make of this session so far? >> i like this session. the market has gotten into a short-term oversold position. i think yesterday the fed minutes made it very clear that, to powell's point he made it very clear that inflation is his mandate at the moment. i think that was reiterated in yesterday's notes. i think the market wanted to hear that. they may not like it but instead of this lack of clarity where no one really knows what he is doing. so i think you have the price and you have to expect there will be a 75 basis point rate hike. look, i actually thought after the last meeting he would put 100 basis points on the table. i think there was a shot that was going quite honestly. i think it should go there. after what i heard yesterday, i don't think where it is going. i think 75 is where it will be. charles: right now it feels interesting because this session is telling two stories. the bond yields are of moving in one direction and the stock
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market is moving in a different direction, and if you took them together it feels like we're lurching into stagflation. is that a possibility? do you see that on the horizon? >> i do think it's a possibility and that makes me a little bit anxious. it brings us stagflation of '79, 80, 81. really difficult time. high interest rates, it was a horrible time. i don't want to see us go there but do i think it's a possibility? i absolutely do. which is why you have to remain nimble where we are right now. don't get too comfortable. i think there is more bumps ahead. charles: are you getting aggressive on anything? are you taking a shot here or there? >> well, so listen, here is -- you know my name, you know my style, you know what i like, right? charles: right. >> i'm not going out, i'm not going out the edges, right? i'm not going into the cathie woods names at all because they weren't in my portfolio to begin with so they're not going to be there now but where i'm getting
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more aggressive, look at more semiconductor names which have gotten absolutely slaughtered down 35% year-to-date. those are starting to lift their head up f, if we can manage the landing whether it be hard or soft i think opportunities like that. nvidia which is name everybody owns, i own it, i own it at higher prices but down here i saw it was kind of building a base around a level that it found some real resistance back in 2020. it fought, it fought and broke through and used that as long-term support where it found the support the other day. i'm back buying more nvidia down here because i think it is okay. charles: at the beginning of the year, a lot of folks, last year you were ahead of the crowd. you got out of growth, went into value. it was looking amazing, all of a sudden defensive sectors took over at the expense of everything. is there one sector you want to be in more than any other to hide out until the coast is clear? >> so, no, i guess where i have, where i put a lot of money this
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year is in the consumer staple sector. i think between that and utilities more in consumer staples. i think i will stay with that weighting because i'm sensing we'll test lower again. i don't think it is going to crash but i think i will fine safety. i will get paid to own the names. they're big multinational names with international exposure and they're consumer staples. they are stuff everybody needs. i'm buying stuff that you need. charles: well, we all need some ketchup that is for sure. you don't use ketchup in any of your recipes i bet? >> no. just on my cheeseburger. that is about it. charles: kenny polcari, thanks my friend. there are so many stable coins pegged to the dollar i will ask our crypto expert mark moss is this contrary to the reason you should be in crypto in the first place? also a lot of chatter about jobs being the most important economic indicator. i think the cpi is but tomorrow is going to be huge and we'll give you a review of it. we'll be right back.
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charles: so those watched me for years no i railed against systems, political systems designed to keep poor people poorer but not wanting, right? some cash here, just enough to make poverty more comfortable. maybe it sounds counterintuitive, you say why would any nation want poor citizens to stay poor, suffer from hunger? i think we got the answer from the unites nations in a piece titled benefits of world hunger. just highlights there, folks. hungry people are the most productive people especially where there is need for manuel labor. here is another one. who would have established massive biofuel production operations in brazil if they did not know there were thousands of hungry people desperate enough to take the awful jobs? how about this? no wonder people at the high-end are not rushing to solve the hunger problem. many of this hunger is not a problem, it is an asset. joining me now the host of the mark moss show, mark moss. it was so interesting, i was
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going to discuss this earlier in the show with a different guest. i listened to your podcast about the freedom manifesto. it struck me as a reason, why governments are so afraid of things like bitcoin. share your thoughts with us. >> yeah. it certainly is. i think if you look at it but not exactly directly but in a certain way it certainly is. it is about control. i know that may sound a little controversial or conspiratorial but it shouldn't be. we know the leaders, central planners have agendas, this he publish the agendas, they want to control us, the people in order to get those agendas done. this is highlighted, henry kissinger told us decades ago, control the food, you control the people, control the energy, control the continent, control the money and you control the world. today we're seeing all three of those, food, energy, money, the leaders are starting to say the quiet part out loud like this article you're referencing it is good to be hungry. we need to control the food. for me that part is scary.
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i take them at your word. listen to henry kissinger who by the taught klaus swab, at world economic forum. back to government being afraid of bitcoin to the question. most people haven't spent time to think about, this without the ability to save money to the point you're making earlier, more specifically the freedom of payment there is no freedom. kiss ikissinger said control thy control the world. they don't want to lose control of the money, so they want to control the people. charles: i appreciate having someone like you in the show. there is a lot of cryptocurrency out there that's backed against by dollars, stable coins, so-called stable coins. it is weird to me because isn't it supposed to be an alternative to fiat currency like the dollar? >> it is but you have to understand it, we're witnessing a technological revolution not just a new technology. the difference tech revolutions
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come about every 50 years. there is evolution process that happens. it's a long process. stable coins backed by the u.s. dollars are a great middle step. it is part of the evolution. they work really good in smaller countries hit real hard by inflation and they need to get out of their local currencies but don't have easy access to dollars for different reasons. bitcoin is too volatile to use on short-term basis for food other essentials. the dollar stablecoins fill the void until bitcoin stops the volatility and inevitable gets less and less and able to use short term. charles: i have less than 30 seconds, give me the timeline when we get through all of this, when bitcoin can get back to live up to some of the earlier projections? >> well i think, 30 seconds, it his historically cheap. it is historically cheap. anything around 20 or less is historically cheap. how long it stays cheap? we don't really know.
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it is trading with the nasdaq. it is becoming uncorrelated. i think it moves up in u.s. dollar terms in the next 12 or 24 months. charles: mark, you are absolutely fantastic. grad you came on the show. hope you come back real soon. thank you. >> thank you so much. charles: all right, folks, tomorrow promises to be a huge day for the stock market. we get the jobs report out and it will probably add to the recession debate. i want to bring in erin gibbs. continuing job claims spiked up today. saw 59% increase in announced job layoffs. could the jobs boom itself be over? i know we got the jolts report yesterday. that is two months old. feels like the jobs boom ain't booming. >> even though jobless claims are going up a little, we still have two job openings for everyone employed person. i would still say we're in a pretty robust period. not a full-on boom but very strong. charles: what if the number comes in below consensus tomorrow? what does that mean for the market? >> i think the market will probably shrug this one off.
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first of all, estimates 276. that is a very average sort of every-day type of number. if it comes in a little or above -- charles: say under 200,000, 150? >> that would be like we're running too hot. then we have to start worrying about inflationary issues versus sort of cooling down the economy. charles: that's where the debate is right now. we had bullard just talking just a moment ago. he is saying, he kind of agreed with you. he said there is quite a bit of room for the labor market to soften. the fed feels like room to be more aggressive. they will hike5 basis point, there is no doubt about that but it feels like the street thinks the fed will back off after the next rate hike? >> that is certainly looking like the bet. looking at very early numbers, looking at commodities, there is hope inflation will finally start to slowly he descend from their peaks. that is just the best case estimate. of course that will change if we start seeing numbers going back
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up. charles: at the beginning of the year, beginning of the year your clients sort of became risk-averse. you made big changes. are they saying now, are you getting anybody, is anyone kicking the tires? anyone calling you up? >> i am. [laughter]. charles: what are you, when you kick the tires, which ones are you kicking? which ones are you looking at? >> one i recently added front door. is a small cap. it is not well-known. it is home services. takes care of all the things you hate as homeowner, plumbing, electric, ac. you pay them to deal with headaches of owning a home. homeownership is up, even though still high demand situation. i think anything with the home is still a good play and this particular service area is one of those options. it is just coming off a low. >> i like that. i like that. what about, what would you avoid right now? >> you know i still think that a lot of the really high values,
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sort of high beta tech names -- charles: non-profitable names, stay away from anything not making money. >> i'm not full risk-on. there is still a lot of fear in this market whether you look at the vix, you look how they're trading. so it is not ready to get full-on risk-on. still be a little cautious. charles: but cpi next week, say that number comes in, i'm hearing nine handle, 10 handle, that kind of scuttlebutt, but what if it comes in with a seven handle? will we get a sigh of relief rally, something that would be worth sinking your teeth into? >> if it came that much lower i would see a lot of people come off the sidelines that would be positive for the market. charles: i got to tell you it has been a crazy ride. one thing everyone keeps talking about how orderly it has been. it does not feel like the worst first half ever, right or one of the worst first halves ever. worst for the nasdaq. is that detrimental even though it doesn't feel that way but it
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has been that painful? >> you know -- charles: i guess what i'm asking, do we have to feel more pain? everyone comes on, we have to feel more pain, scream into their pillow, whatever. do we have to be pushed into insanity? >> i think 20% down is enough pain. i don't think so. maybe it will go down another 2, 3%. i think as long as the economic numbers are showing a little better, one because of news dispersions coming down. we're starting to see sectors start to trade with more trend. that would be a little more positive for the market. charles: love it. erin, thank you very much. appreciate it. folks my takeaway on wall street maybe actually facing consequences of white-collar crime. if that changes, maybe they will level the playing field too. we'll be right back. ♪.
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at bath fitter, every quality bath starts with quality people. our consultants help you choose from hundreds of bath options so we fit your style. our installers complete your work in as little as a day so we fit your schedule. our manufacturing team custom crafts your bath so we fit your standards, and it's guaranteed for life. when you can trust the people who create your new bath, it just fits. bath fitter. visit to book your free consultation. charles: so a hot has been made about ken griffin moving citadel to florida many part because he wants to escape the crime in chicago. and, of course, that was not lost on a lot of folks who believe the titans of wall street get away with crimes every single day. most see the game of fines that
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allows individuals to not only be bad actors, but even on occasion be bailed out by main street. i actually had to pay a fine one time, i was told i violated rules i didn't know existed. nevertheless, i finally paid them $25,000. not sure what the pine was for, but i didn't sign off that i did anything wrong. be that as it may, it is not even a speck in the grand scheme of things, folks. you should see the fines wall street has paid since 2000 with. jpmorgan, 36 billion, citigroup, 25 billion, deutsche bank, 18 billion, goldman sachs, 15 billion, and it's still a farce because nobody, no individual pays for committing anything. you would pay more for petty crime. that might be changing. jury selection began today in u.s. district court around this precious metals trading scam that stretched from 2008-2016. prosecutors say that jpmorgan raiders spoofed the precious
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metals market. they would place trades, quickly cancel them, but they drove up the price. jpmorgan has already settled and paid their fan. are from what i understand, the rico act is being used, and that's great because maybe, just maybe they're going to have some accountability. the game is rigged, the rules are skewed, and maybe, just maybe, they'll make it fair. i hand it over to cheryl casone. cheryl: charles, thank you. yeah, there's a lot going on with these markets and a lot to watch on the regulation side but also with these numbers that we're tracking today. looked at what's happening here. we're sitting in rally mode ahead of tomorrow's june jobs report. we're at session highs right now. in fact, we're actually hitting session highs at exact session. dow up 323, that is a fresh high. s&p 500 and the nasdaq looking at four straight days of gains as oil bounces back from yesterday's dip into a crude bear market. oil actually kind


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