tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business October 31, 2021 10:00am-10:30am EDT
harm. it's a very hard line to draw i'm glad i'm not sitting in the seat and facebook trying to figure that out right quick some people's misinformation or views, thank you both i appreciate you both thank you for joining us. we'll be back next up with more on the wall street journal at large for a thank for joining us. ♪ ♪ >> barron's roundtable sponsored by invesco queue queue queue. >> welcome to barron's roundtable we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i'm jack are coming up strategist david kelly will tell us what inflation has in common with logrolling. can any other car company dethrone tesla as the undisputed king of motor vehicles? we begin with what we think are the most three things in the investors ought to be thinking about right now.
what is an inverted yield curve questioning it's what the market is obsessed with either learning signs for recession? move over apple to technet no longer the most viable company in the world but will tell you who hold that title now. and they premier of dune lifted i mixed with the best october ever while am's he is still trading like a mean separate ben, carl and jack. so then it is the energizer market. it keeps on empowering higher. what is behind this? >> i think we have to ask ourselves why it is not, jack. every week i come on i can list all these things people are worried about. they get earnings disappoint him to wear things going on in the bond market. gdp number this past week. yet the market keeps going up. it feels like sometimes they're focusing on the wrong things. right now traits are still low, earnings are growing up both of those are good for the stock market. >> that make sense but we hit new highs on friday. interesting tweet from she
shows flowing into the market pre-covid was around $5 billion a month. up to 25 billion on average, ever since march of 2020. is it individual investors powering this thing higher? >> i don't think so but we keep hearing it's the retail investor doing this. they are obviously putting a lot of money and food companies are still buying back a ton of stock. institutions are probably putting money into it too but if they're not the s&p 500 goes up as much as it is it's 23% this year they are not getting those kind of returns they're going to get fired. so i think as long as everybody is in this market right now and you just have to be. it's in its retail and everybody else. >> everyone bear with us have got to talk about the yield curve this charge interest rates from bloat -- high from
short duration to long duration. why was the such the buzz in the market this week? >> there was a big move early in the week in that yield where the two-year bond, jumped up suddenly and so the gap between that and the ten year narrowed quite bit more than it normally does. that got people scared perhaps the fed was going to raise interest rates too quickly that's what the bond market was predicting. there's a lot of other stuff going on including technical things in terms of the trading of the treasury bonds that could have been responsible. the thing i try to remember it's an inverted yield curve at the short-term yields are higher than long-term yields the market is predicting a recession. even then you have six months before the recession usually hits it. and so there is time. right now i think about what's going on at the yield curve more as noise and anything to get worried about. >> two things it could affect
the yield term we have payroll coming up for october, this coming week. and importantly the fed is meeting while they might actually announce this much expected taper, the reduction in the bond buying will the market be worried about that it seems like it's been well telegraphed. >> is been so well tell her telegraph the bigger surprise me if they don't taper this coming week. >> thanks for that, carlton was talk about earnings a big earnings week. we're almost halfway through the season what are you seeing? >> we're a little more than halfway at this point earnings are up 30% year-over-year. keep in mind interesting, some are looking at the 2020 for it but we have also is 82% of companies have top analysts expectations going back about 25 years normally there might be a reason for that though. we have been talking about inflation, supply chain issues for some time. and yes they aptly are starting to show up in third quarter earnings. i think we'll sing it more in fourth-quarter earnings a number of companies have warned to that effect that
delta, kimberly-clark and 3m to name a few very think the analyst and got a little ahead of themselves and their expectations for third-quarter results. >> let's read this on the tech companies real quick start with apple and amazon. >> applet supply chain issues that 60 billion potential sales. phased at 2 billion extra cost tied to wages. >> google and microsoft had better numbers and microsoft took the throne is the most viable company in the world. >> it's living in the cloud that's what's been will store so much for on the flipside that a 43% year-over-year. >> we do not have enough time to talk about facebook i'm sorry maddock, met i move on to jack hough is movie dune he saw this past week. >> i made about halfway, jack. if you like star wars and you do not like fun i highly recommend it, it is for you.
i am delighted to see at the box office it did more than $200 million. and keep in mind, this was a simultaneous release at the theater and on hbo at max. next you're going to return to a theater window for warner media. had the best october ever, thanks largely to dune. stocks are working right now like a cinemark and imac. i think it next summer could be big for the movie business but look at the slates. as a matrix movie and a west side story. it starts off slow in february i am predicting the biggest but then it gets interesting with batman, store make bite summer is a top gun, "jurassic world", buzz light year, black panther, indiana jones, mission impossible for a rank
a few of those the entire canon. [laughter] >> that is quite a light of the pandemic comes back while wachtel on streaming. coming up will be supply chain crisis prolong inflation and should you adjust your portfolio? i'll ask j.p.. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ i'll shoot you an estimate as soon as i get back to the office.
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jack: supply chain, bottlenecks rising prices passing phase that a normal cosmic tomato j.p. morgan chief global strategist david kelly. davidson must have been the show again thank you for coming andre. >> very glad to be here. jack: i thought i'd heard just about everything i thought about inflation until i read your note comparing it with logrolling. can you explain that analogy and how you think the price
surge will shake out? >> is talking about -- make the thing with logrolling you stand on top of a log eventually end up in the water. when you have high inflation we have had periods of flawed high inflation in the past but they do not last that long but we have very high prices for things like oil, everybody is making money. everybody's making money and producing oil suddenly it goes up in the oil prices full. i think that's generally true for inflation. it's like two people on a log trying to fight against each other than they're definitely going to end up and they drink. trying to maintain a recession both are acting against each other. if got very weak growth will bring inflation down. high inflation will intent to go up as people try to produce step ahead of higher prices. it is a little bit complicated my theoretical perspective. the basic point people talk
about, everybody 19 segments i know what it was but this we are not headed. jack: the cure for high oil prices high oil prices but. >> exactly. >> one piece of that equation is employment what is your view is that going to help her hurt? >> first of all the labor market is very tight the vaccine mandates will make it a little tighter because there are some people for reasons of their own to quit rather than take the vaccine fit that will have an effect for a while. after a while almost all of these people will drift back into employment one way or the other but there's obviously some jobs that do not require you to have the vaccine and maybe that is how this will sort itself out. but ultimately i do not think that will change. the basic story is the economy is still growing. it's taking a bit of a pause but will pick up again. as it picks up again i think you'll see strong job growth
very strong wage growth. i think you'll see the unemployment rate come down. not quite to 3.5% which is where we were before the pandemic. i think we will come down to 4% at some stage next year. jack: i want to move on to investments inc. they're good idea batted equipment. >> i think they are good idea. frankly, logically you have got a virus which nature has designed to kill us. if you have a vaccine designed to cure us. i admit to being a little on emotional about this. but logically it makes no sense to get vaccinated. get vaccinated for a lot of other things. it is our road back to normality. i am personally in favor of mandates. >> on the market everything i look at is pretty expensive as
her place to go look and find it more price customer. >> there are things expensive at the end of october we had all-time highs in one of the major indices. but within the market there's a lot of dispersion a lot of things are expensive but a lot of things relatively cheap. i think valued stocks within the united states a pretty good. frankly also a lot of international stocks. places like europe, japan, are not as expensive. we are seeing those economies and bounce back also. they also pay a very good dividend. dividend outside denies it or twice what they are the u.s. think international stocks and value stocks in the united states are way to diversify a portfolio right now by. >> good time to rebound after a stocks have done so well but were just of time at real quickly your thoughts on the ever popular bit coin? >> i would not put it in a portfolio. it is way too volatile. if you construct a portfolio that much volatility it means you huge expect to return to
justify putting in there at all. frankly, i do not see any real value in it. to me it's a colt masquerading as a currency. it cannot act as a currency unless it staple but nobody listened by that stable because people buy it for capitol, he could stay high it could go higher for a long time. but i would not put my mother in it i don't think it's suitable portfolio at this stage we. >> is the ultimate test me about mom and it david kelly thank you so much for coming andre. >> anytime brick. >> coming on up elon musk as a first 300 billion-dollar man after tesla makes a megadeal with hurts. what's next for electric what's next for electric vehicles and how investors can yeah, that's half the fun of a new house. seeing what people left behind in the attic. well, saving on homeowners insurance with geico's help was pretty fun too. ahhhh, it's a tiny dancer.
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jack: is a huge week for elon musk contest of that company market company topped $1 trillion him to strike a deal with hurts to bite 100,000 cars. musk network is more than three to billion. ford, gm and others are making massive investments specifically in batteries barron's cover story and senior writer out good to have you on the show. >> hi. >> al, why did they choose tesla other than the obvious the really cool cars. >> that is a good question. i think they are pretty cool cars for the answer is really scale, right? in america tesla has a plan that will turn out 500,000 cars a year. ford and gm on a combined basis in america will probably not hit 100,000 sold. in america lowered its five member. >> nobody else could have sold
hurts what her thousand cars. just because tesla dominates it now does not mean they always will. one of the things that so crucial to the future is batteries. i might see more about in the future. >> so, i think among legacy automakers that is a good way to put it, battling for their share of the pie i would say ford, gm, volkswagen has been the most aggressive in pursuing electrification goals. those three and then others for some contacts have basically committed $75 billion for battery capacity between now and the end of the decade. that is up from commitments and practically speaking of about zero in 2020. so the industry's hit the accelerator if you'll pardon the pun. tesla of course is also spending on its own batteries. they tend not to announce them in that manner.
>> if those guys are ford, gm, volkswagen are leading right now who is lagging behind? >> good question. it feels like the japanese. it feels like the japanese they are joy toyota others are spending on batteries but they are doing, they are still tied to hybrid electrics. right now it looks like a high cost strategy for both one or 50 a kilowatt hour out that that means a lot. battery costs are supposed to call that means ev's be at or cheaper than gas powered cars and you won't need an while the hybrid strategy y instead of some material make a
battery manufacturer? >> great question. battery makers tend to be listed in northeast asia diversified materials companies, the ev boom does not necessarily impact their income statement the way it does. it's a lithium minor, it is one of the largest minors in the world has low cost assets the automakers hit their goals, battery capacity is going to go up tenfold over the next ten years. that will mean a lot more lithium business. >> real quick to have a question before we go? lex first i have to hand it over too ben the question to
you as may be it's a great company does it register virtually no evaluation executing very well it's hard to deny. tesla the stock bulls believe three things, they believe tesla is an iphone and cars are flip phones. they believe tesla will have 20% market share around the globe forever. they believe ev's are going to be more profitable than traditional cars. and obviously they believe ev's are going to dominate personal transportation in the future. if you believe those three or four things, you could get to a trillion. >> thanks very much doesn't mean the stock is a great investment. those sure are cool cars thanks so much for coming on, albert.
>> great point thanks for. >> up next round table with their investment ideas jackal their investment ideas jackal tells about the new trend of ♪ ♪ remember when no dream was too big? ♪ ♪ and you could fearlessly face the unknown. (kids playing) you still can. ♪ ♪ (blowing dust) when you have a rock you can depend on for life, you'll be unstoppable. that's why over 5,500 companies rely on prudential's retirement and workplace benefits. who's your rock? i order my groceries online now. shingles doesn't care. i keep my social distance. shingles doesn't care. i stay within my family bubble. shingles doesn't care. because if you've had chicken pox, you're already carrying the virus that causes shingles.
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♪ ♪ jack given the runaround revenge travel but i'm sorry you're so angry tells about this. >> travel industries hopefuls use this in the summer for this is must be cooped up travelers who are making up for lost time spending big on vacations. they got sidelined for the delta very. cases are now falling. the crews lines were getting ahead of it.
royal caribbean just announced a nine month cruise, a record cruise more than 150 destinations on all seven continents for the ceo told me the bookings are strong already. it's the subject of my call and bayern this week with ultimate world cruise, jack paid the price $61000 to $116,000 per person depending on your broom. but that includes a business class flight and a free cruise gala in a deluxe drink package and laundry service but it also includes spending and nine months on a ship with the same 2300 or so people. so jack don't make enemies at least not early on part if you do you end up throwing drinks at each other's faces again. those are free and the laundry services covered. spada hope so. do we need to find a new jack hough are you getting on one of these boats? >> i am not sure what the internet situation is on the boat for tv and podcasting. internet is included i've got
to check on the band with the situation. jack: i cannot imagine packing for nine months while parade let's move onto actionable ideas, been what you have for us this week? >> i am looking at cinemark i think jack is right. the movie theaters is a strong slate of films coming for vaccine approve for kids just now. this should get more people going to movies. cinemark had to take on a lot of debt during the pandemic but it's going to some of this money to pay it off the stocks really interesting. >> that is cool. blockbusters jack reeled off coming up. carlton what are you looking at? >> taking a look at madison square garden the fourth business or colleague looks at all of the companies. the owner of the nicks and rangers trading at a massive disc i think the knicks are such beware the most profitable franchise that the mba pallet of 5.8 billion. if msg trading $4.6 billion for it online sports betting coming to new york like it or not the client to do a lot for
engagement and the next are off to a good start this season for the drink a little bit better. >> neither team is looking like they need us too. thanks for that, the effort to follow us on twitter at barron's online. happ country does not want the stuff up. democrats do not. i am sorry. ♪ ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo wall street. maria: had a happy weekend everyone welcome to the program that analyzes the week that wasn't helps position you for the week ahead. i am maria bartiromo. president biden europe this weekend is as crucial big-ticket agenda items hang in the balance here at home. progressives are digging in their heels against the framework of a slimmed down spending package grade one senior official admitting the biden presidency is on the