tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business October 17, 2021 10:00am-10:30am EDT
policies. the vice president's performance on this earth are becoming something of an embarrassment to her party. well, that's it for us this week. i'll be back next week right here on "the wall street journal at large." are. than us. ♪ ♪ ♪♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter. coming up, retired four-star general stanley mcchrystal gives his take on the withdrawal from afghanistan and how geopolitical pressures are impacting the economy and your portfolio. and later, surprising results from our big money poll. where investing pros think the economy is headed and where they're putting their money.
we begin, as always, with what we think are the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about. the markets rallied this week, industrial and tech company reports are up next week. the price of crude oil tops $80 a barrel. why that's good news and bad news. and decisions on covid have captured attention, but other approvals waiting in the wings approving a treatment for alzheimer's. so, ben, some good news from the market this week. mr. market got really excited. what changed and alteredded that mood? >> i think it was two things, jack. the first was inflation. we had two numbers, cpi, the consumer price index, and ppi, the producer price index. they're not really going up anymore. so i think this makes people think, okay, maybe inflation has peaked. and then you had earnings, they
were quite good, and that's actually something that i think kind of surprised the market. expectations had been very low. it should be said that it was really banks that have done this, and that's just one group of stock, but given how bad the sentiment was coming in, that was enough to lift things this week. jack: those charts are beautiful. what you can't see is we also tick thed above the 50-day -- ticked above the 50-day moving average, which is a good deal. bond yields, maybe bond investors aren't quite as worried about inflation also? >> that's right. and it's been a really big deal for tech stocks. when bond yield withs have gone up, tech stocks have fallen. it's just the way it's been. so to have them stop rising as quickly, because they did rise above 1.6% early this week before falling back, that was really good for tech. it helped them stabilize, it helped them rise, and they're such a big part of the stock market that that stabilization really helps things. jack: okay. so what are you going to be looking for to see when you think this optimism is actually
justified? >> i still want to see how industrials do and how tech does when they report their earnings. industrials because they're the ones that have been hit the hardest by the bottlenecks and the supply chain issues. they've really had a problem with the, with their input costs going up. and tech just because they are such a big part of the market. the sentiment there is pretty negative. the earnings estimates have been coming down. that could be a good thing, it could make it easy to beat the earnings and send the stocks higher, but if they can't beat, that could be a problem. jack: so speaking of inputs for industrial companies, carlton, let's talk about the energy patch. energy prices going up is actually a reflection of good things, right? economic activity is increasing, there's a lot more capital discipline among energy companies which we haven't seen for a heck of a long problem. but if you think inflation is a problem now, wait until those heating bills start rolling in this winter. >> yeah, jack, we have natural gas prices set to post their
largest yearly gain in about 20 years. and those jumps are pushing people to oil. so now we're seeing oil prices rise. and, you know, if you're invested in these companies, like in the retine -- refiners, for instance, stock prices go up about 20%, the case with phillips 66 and valero, but if you're paying, doesn't feel so nice. jack: and again, those companies that rely on energy for a big part of their input, they're seeing trouble like delta. >> yeah. you've got to look at the airlines. they just could not catch a break. travel largely halted, they got some momentum, then we had the delta variant, now you have delta -- the airline, not the variant -- warning rising prices could hit its profitability, so we're going to have to see what united says next week. but anyone relying on those inputs, they're going to be feeling the pain. anyone driving is also feeling the pain. jack: if only they could have locked in the future at that
-37, they'd be happy right now. real quick, what does this heene for your portfolio as an investor? >> we talk about inflation hedges, and what you want to do is buy the things that are going up. i have a piece out this week, chevron, the yield's up 5%, dividend even looks sustainable at that level, even if price of oil drops a bit. jack: alex, let's pivot over to the fda, and all the the attention has been about the booster shot and vaccines for kids, which is important, but barron's has an interesting story looking at a lot of other drugs in the pipeline. >> yeah, there is a lot going on. the fda's likely to be announcing a handful of billion dollar decisions this fall, and they can move the shares of big farm that companies like eli lilly,tizer along with some other biotechs. for lily, about their alzheimer's treatment, these are
all blockbuster type drugs and actually are really hang in the balance at the fda right now. jack: and adding dot.com application here is that a -- dot.com application is a bit of turmoil. >> there's no permanent commissioner at the fda. they've had this separate controversy involving alzheimer's spurred by their surprising approval earlier this year of a biogen drug despite a lot of evidence that it wasn't working that well. jack: thanks, alex. coming up, refired four-star general stanley -- retired four-star general stanley mcchrystal. that's next. ♪ ♪
♪ jack: geopolitical forces seem to be the impacting the economy more than ever. right now the u.s. is navigating a global pandemic, competition from china, foreign cyber attacks and more. are we positioned to win those battles? joining me now, the author of "risk: a user's guide," retired four-star general stanley mcchrystal. first of all, general, the nation is appreciate testify of your service. >> thank you. jack: as the general who led u.s. forces in afghanistan, what lessons can we take away from america's withdrawal? >> yeah, i think we can take a number. first, we spent 20 the years. we made an effort, and it didn't work. so the first thing we should figure out is why didn't it work. and i think there's going to be a temptation to look for one bad decision or one bad decision merrick or a group of idiots who were incompetent, and i think
we're not going to find that. i think we're going to find there are systemic reasons for our inability to really get our mind and selves around the challenge of afghanistan so that we don't have a challenge going forward. and people say, well, we'll never go back to afghanistan or we'll never do anything like that again, but historically we probably will. jack: we had dr. scott gottlieb on the show not long ago, and he felt that the u.s. intelligence services ought to be getting involved with the9 pandemic threat. there's concern that if they did so, anyone in a white coat overseas would be seen as a cia agent. how do we handle that? did you agree with the basic premise that maybe some arms of the military should help out with the pandemic threat? >> i think the intelligence community is charged with the defense of the nation, and it didn't say against certain threats, it's really against all external threats. so i am sympathetic to what dr. gottlieb is saying, that we should take every element of
national power to try to understand threats coming at us and do something about them. however, my background in counterterrorism does say that if you ever put someone from the media or someone from a nonprofit or in the medical world this a position where they're also acting as an intelligence operative, every other hebb of those elements -- member of those elements gets painted in the minds of your opposition with that. so every media, every doctor and all is immediately under suspicion. so i think we've got to do that with great care. jack: that's a great point and a great answer. now to the digital world. it worries me sometimes that, you know, we haven't yet got our heads around exactly what the digital threats from overseas are, that we're very well prepared for, you know, a land invegas of new york city a maybe -- invasion of new york city maybe but not so much what's going on in cyberspace. how big a risk is that and to
businesses that market the economy in particular in. >> it's a huge risk, and i don't think we have a good enough excuse for saying we don't understand the threat. if it's hard work to fix it, it's expensive, and it requires our national society to start linking together public and private things, government and civilian companies in ways we haven't before to get an integrated defense, and cha's uncomfortable for -- that's uncomfortable for people. jack: there's obviously a lot of tension with china right now whether it's taiwan or other issues. again thinking about businesses and the markets, how should they be thinking about what that looks like over the coming months and over the coming decade? >> yeah, i think we ought to take the problem with china very seriously. one, china's been rising as a competitor. i'm not going to call it a kohl war opponent -- cold war opponent, but there's certainly a lot of competition and friction. second, china has not just
improved economically, it has improved militarily. so now their ability to project power to places like china and in the south -- like taiwan and to be a direct, in your face competitor has skyrocketed, so we have to take it very seriously. and then as you mentioned, supply chains and business relationships, we can't let things like that make us unnaturally or unhealthily vulnerable. we found out during the pandemic things as basic as protective equipment essentially originated largely from china. but there are so many other things we're dependent upon, chips and what not from taiwan and other areas. we have to have a national industrial policy that balances our free market instincts with the reality that the united states has got to have resilience in critical minerals, in critical resources, in critical manufacturing so that when the world does go through
another upset, as it will historically, we are not completely vulnerable to that. jack: yeah, no question about it. another threat that we have started focusing on in recent years is the threat from space. we now have an actual space force. it's hard to get my head around that. how should we be thinking about that threat? how does that threat actually manifest itself? >> yeah, in a lot of ways. just let me paint a picture. if someone was able to shut space down tomorrow, could cause all the satellites that are there to shut down, the impact would be extraordinary. just the global positioning system, the ability for us to fly, do things. we use timing from the global positioning system for an extraordinary number of things. so, in fact, a lot of our society would seize up suddenly. our communications, so much go through the satellites. so space is now an area not that it's nice to be this, it's absolutely important economically and militarily to
be able to operate there. jack: should we be happy that the private sector the seems to be leading so much of that? certainly seems more efficient. the rockets are quite a bit cheaper. on the other hand, when your talking about defense -- when you're talking about defense, that's usually a government expense. >> this gets to what's the relationship between the private sector and government now. i think there has to be greater cooperation and closer links so that when we need it, the private sector's capabilities are available to the united states. jack: general mcchrystal, thank you so much for your time. appreciate it. >> you're kind to have me. jack: coming up, big money managers are predicting a bumpy ride in the stock market. ride in the stock market. we'll tell you w that's the thing about claims, you see. they don't happen on your schedule.
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♪ jack: barron's just surveyed a group of top money managers for our biannual big money poll, and the results are this. professional investors gave us their specific predictions for the market. joining the round table, the head of bank of america securities michelle meyer. i want to go to carlton first. i was interested to see that the money managers expected strong economic growth, but they've become less bullish over the past six months. >> yeah, most expect gdp growth in the range of 3-4%. market is a slightly different story. half of responsibilities are still bullish on -- respondents are still bullish, but that's could be from 67% the the last time we ran the poll. 79% said they could see the market hitting a correction or a drop of 10% in the next 12 months but only 9 see a bear market. so expect it to be bumpy a little ahead. jack: being bullish six months
ago was certainly a good call. what sectors are they putting their money this right now, and is there anything they're avoiding? is. >> they are most optimistic on financials and equally pessimistic on utilities. what i found really interesting in term es of optimism and pessimism, tech ranked second on both lists. jack: it sometimes happens that way. the market can't make up its mind. although i'm suspicious, you telling me they like financials. i don't know about that. michelle, interestingly, six months ago when we asked what their biggest concern was, it was covid not surprisely, but now that's faded. they're worried about a policy blunder, and a close second was inflation. i suspect those two are connected. what's your view? >> well, i think that's right. we're now seeing covid cases come down, and if we look at the surveys that we're conducting, people are increasingly less concerned about covid. not out of the woods, there's still this, you know, fear about
spreading disease and how to engage in a her post-covid world. but with concern more post-covid world, but you are certainly seeing greater engagement in the services and leisure side of the economy. i think the real concern is overinflation ask supply chain issues especially as we head into the holiday shopping season. the ability to purchase goods, to receive those goods and to do so without significant price increases, i think that's at the top of mind for a lot of folks out there the right now. >> hawaii, michelle -- hi, michelle, this this is ben levi. is the work force all about the delta variant? and is it going to get better as it wanes. >> you have to remember the last jobs report. it is a september jobs report, but it captures activities in the last two weeks of august and the first or two weeks of september. so that was before we had this
nice fall in covid cases. so, yes, i think delta was still very much weighing on that last jobs report, and we saw it with leisure and hospitality jobs looking pretty feeble, all things considered, especially given the amount of job openings in the sector. and then i think the supply side of the economy is constrained. we're spending so much time talking about the supply issues, but it's also on the labor front. there's still over 5 million people who were employed prior to the an demick that are still out of -- the pan them demick that are still out of work despite an extraordinary demand for workers. so i think, you know, when we look ahead, the critical factor will be whether or not people are coming back into the work force and how quickly those people are finding employment and satisfying all the demand that's out there. jack: michelle, we're oat out of time. give me a number, everybody said
3-4 prls, what's growth prediction for the next 12 months. >> i think closer to 4% because, you know -- provided the supply side responds somewhat. but i really am pretty confident in the american economy. jack: michelle meyers, thank you so much. for her results, check out this week's edition of bare ron's. up next, round table members will give their investment ideas for the coming week, and alex tells us why people will be walking around on mars long before your car can drive itself, so stay right there. ♪ ♪ ♪ come ♪ ♪ come ♪ ♪ come before discovering nexium 24hr to treat her frequent heartburn... claire could only imagine enjoying chocolate cake. now, she can have her cake and eat it too. nexium 24hr stops acid before it starts for all-day, all-night protection. can you imagine 24 hours without heartburn? (sfx: video game vehicle noises, horns beeping,) (engines revving, cars hitting one another.) (sfx: continued vehicle calamity.)
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jack: alex, you explained insurance on several driving cars was going to be difficult, tell me about your thinking. >> i've been fascinated about this topic since about ten years ago when a source told me my then-2-year-old daughter would never have to learn to drive. then everyone sort of got onboard. she's 12 now, and i'm thinking everyone's going to be wrong, and i'm bracing for the driving lessons. [laughter] the interesting thing is i think in terms of technology the, we have come a really long way. we're 99% of way there. the problem is it's this last 1% that's really going to continue to take a long time. jack: and you're so interested in this, i know you've got a whole series of podcasts on this topic. give us a little hint here, when do you think we'll actually get to that self-driving car day? >> yeah. so, you know, we said 2020 for a long time, now people are saying 10-15 years.
it's certain possible that at that point we'll have self-driving cars in certain controlled environments. i think right now we're actually overestimating the short term for self-driving cars and awe on the house technology and underestimating the long term. they really do have the potential to totally change cities, suburbs, no need for parking anywhere this cities because the cars will drop us off -- jack: can't wait for that. it is time to move on to the actionable ideas. carlton, start with you. >> doing something a little more basic, taking a look at gold, specifically newmont. one way to play this is to think of it as a dividend play, currently yielding 4% which looks sustainable with gold at $1800 an ounce. jack: and, ben? >> xpo logistics, it's done pretty well. a lot has changed as welsh it's
pulled back as investors are worried about bottlenecks. as growth starts to get better again, i think the stock can do pretty well. jack: thanks for that. to read more, check out barron's.com. don't forget to follow us on twitter @barronsonline. that's all for us. a great weekend. ♪ ♪ >> from the fox studios many new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm jackie deangelis in for maria bartiromo. the supply chain crisis rocking the economic recovery with empty shelves and higher prices. the white house warning that your christmas gifts may be on the line as one member of the administration is under fire for minimizing the situation. we'll hear from kenny old carry. southwest