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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  August 18, 2021 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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♪. neil: all right, the pope latest to say you better get your vaccine shot. do it for the good of mankind. some will say, all right, that the pope is recommending but what is charles payne saying? the choice between the pope, charles payne. you can follow either of their advice. here is charles. to you, sir. charles: thank you very much, my friend. good afternoon, everyone. i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking right now you can seal the anxiety in the air. it is palpable. the market is certainly less vulnerable. we have worries about the fed. just now releasing fomc minutes, worries about the delta variant. worried about the sagging internals in this market. by the way did someone mention the hindenburg? the fear-mongers are on their soapbox.
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i have amazing array of guests for you. we'll walk through all of this. we are at the two year anniversary of the corporate america going woke. has it made a difference. photos of able-bodied men are leaving in cargo flights. another refugee crisis for the white house. plus maybe now it is the time to say, thank you to those who served in iraq and iran, iraq and afghanistan. all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, so the market in something of a holding pattern for the last couple weeks. there have been a series of new highs but you take a look at these big intraday swoons and the ugly internals. meanwhile as hospitalizations have increased worries about the delta variant have surpassed worries about inflation when it comes to the economy. people are less worried about the economy stalling. forget about value versus growth.
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yesterday we saw the perfect delta variant portfolio. moderna was the biggest winner. other biotechs, etsy, dominos, hormel, making of spam also found buyers. more an eclectic session. lows in tesla lifting consumer discretion nary names to the front of pack. other interesting moves are semiconductors and basic materials. no doubt the seesawing back and forth among themes is masking anxiety for investors. you don't want to get out of the market. by the same token you don't warrant to be aggressive ahead after potential pullback. i want to bring in leuthold group jim paulson. jim, i have to ask but the internals, day after day so many losers than winners. see it more pronounced in the russell and nasdaq. see how many names are trading below their 50 day moving averages on those two exchanges.
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what's going on here? >> well i think that you know, i actually think the growth rate in quantitative easing and m2 money supply, charles, has been slowing really since march, has slowed a lot. quantitative easing was growing 80% year on year in february. it is now growing 11% year on year. so i think in essence tapering has been narrowing out market leadership. you've seen small caps have been flat for months ever since that started. cyclical sectors, their performance has rolled over. emerging markets have been hit hard. a lot of the more cyclical areas have been hit the hardest by this. i think that's what's happening. internals as a result look bad because what's left perform something the largest of the large cap, primarily in the growth space. charles: right. >> but i don't know if that will persist. you know we've had bad advance-decline ratios before that haven't worked out in signaling a collapse like a year
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ago, between like june and october, the same thing happened. markets still went up a little. broader market. but eventually we broke out in all of the market participated. i kind of think that will happen again. the driving force as you pointed out of late is the delta variant. even the experts now agree that probably within a month or so we're going to see a peak in that. the incidents of that here in this country. we're already seeing passion in other parts of the world -- peaks. other parts of the united states. if that happens i think economic confidence will resurge again and activities will pick up and some of these current fears that have caused a narrowing of the stock market might give way to broader participation. charles: right. so those dark clouds will go away but you have told me on more than one occasion sometime between now and the end of the year you see some sort of a pullback, a pretty sizable pullback and a bigger move to the upside. how do you adjust a portfolio for that scenario?
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>> well, i think there are very difficult to call. bear markets you want to make sure you try to get out of the way of, charles, but corrections, boy it's tough. if we have a 15% correction and you get defensive and it goes up 5% higher before it corrects and then once it does correct you're not sure it is bottom and rises 5% before you get back in i don't know how much it is worth. i would stay focused where we might be a year from now or more, even if we do correct. i think, i think we're going to get a correction. i still kind of think we might get one before the year-end. i think it will come even after rates move higher but if you look at it right now i would say areas that haven't participated since early this year, small caps, particular sectors, emerging markets, i think those areas you should focus on because after any correction here that will be the area that you lead. charles: jim, i got less than a
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minute to go. palantir apparently bought 50 million-dollars in gold bars ahead of a potential black swan event. you know there is talk on the street of so-called hindenburg omen. i know it is hard to embrace for a black swan since we're not supposed to see them coming. how concerned are you we could see something more significant than just a garden-variety correction? >> it can always happen, there is no doubt about that, charles. likes you said you don't ea black swan until it pokes its head up and is already over. the best thing you can do is stay diversified. you should be that all the time. beyond that i wouldn't go too deep because i don't think it is likely right now that this economic recovery or its bull market are going to end very soon. are they going to be paused? are they going to be dipped along the way? absolutely but we've got, underneath covid we have got a
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very healthy economy, flush with liquidity, flush with excess savings, need to rebuild inventories, massive productivity gains, i don't think that will tip over tomorrow. i do think one of the best ways to get through it is not get caught up in too many of the fear-mongerings and get completely out of the market. diversify, yes, conservative, yes, but not get out. charles: tell me about it. jim, i'm with you 1000% hindenburg be damned. thank you. >> thanks, charles. charles: i want to bring in advisor group's phil blancato and hennessey funds ray kelly. phil, you can cut the angst sight with a knife. how does our audience keep cool when the market looks vulnerable? you have the big down days. you start to add things like images coming out of afghanistan. >> investing 101. take your emotions out of it. afghanistan is a terrible
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situation, humanitarian issue. but economically to jim's point we're in really pretty good shape here. you look at the amount of money we have flush with the consumer at the corporate level. you will see the greatest earnings growth since 2008. no reason to exit the market here. don't let the noise of other things not economic related impact your ability to be focused on the fact that the market is holding on here, earnings are up canning up to price -- catching up to prices and for that reason i think we head up higher. >> ryan, we're at all-time highs. we had a heck of a run. anxiety to to degree is natural. when does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy? enough people become so concerned they make it happen? >> sure. of course we have september coming up. september has been a pretty bad month. last year we had the biggest pullback in quite some time since the pandemic but you really can't let that push you. you have to stay invested.
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that's what we've been telling investors as well. since the financial crisis, s&p 500 sup 19% per year since beginning of that, despite a huge pullback during the pandemic. we continue to have a very resilient market. it is driven by fundamentals, it is driven by earnings growth. we set the first new all-time high last year on this day a year ago after the pandemic and since that time we've had 69 new all-time highs and the average time between each one is five days. if you're trying to get in and out that is a tough way to do it. charles: it really is. phil, you've been big on the reopening trades. what about this delta trade? yesterday it was health care, etsy, supermarket, domino's pizza, is that too nuanced for someone like you? >> no, i don't think it is. the reality i want to buy stocks that will fend off inflation. dominoes seems to be really good at that.
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delta variant is not going away as quickly as we hoped. some names are still problematic. i still look at consumer cyclical names that will do well. disney will do well, flat on the year, apple, they will spend it there. i think the health care sector is industry but be careful about price. some are so astronomically expensive i wouldn't touch them. focus on where the consumer spends money in the next two or three quarters. charles: some people call them so-called value sectors, if you look at traditional ratios like pe they're expensive. ryan, you're big on mid-caps. i saw in your note you use a formula-based approach. explain that to the audience. >> sure. in our hennesy cornerstone mid-cap fund one of the four portfolios that use a formula-based approach. we publish our formula. it is in all of our publications on our website and our
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prospectus. what we're looking for to really combine earnings growth, three, six, 12 months price momentum and sticking to a good valuation discipline. doing so we think -- charles: let me jump in one second because those are noted. i think it is important for the audience. i hope they wrote them down but i got just 30 seconds. i wanted to ask about some of the holdings you like. i know big lots, kbh, williams-sonoma. we saw mortgage applications drop today more than anticipated. housing starts data was, i won't say unmitigated disaster but it was a big miss. could the housing boom be over right now already? >> well you know we're certainly seeing some weakness in the housing numbers. we saw really strong run-up in prices. if it goes too far too fast that does affect demand but we look at this over the longer term especially from the point of view going into kb home.
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that is that home building, there is a shortage of it. we're behind the eight ball there as a country. charles: right. >> we're needing five 1/2 million new homes we need to build to get back up where we should be. there is demand there. we think some of this could be more transient, some weakness in demand. overall there is a lot of good long term fundamentals for the homebuilders. charles: ryan, phil, thank you both very much, we appreciate it. meanwhile, folks the white house announcing vaccine booster shots starting next month. the trump administration's admiral brett giroir will join us about that and other things. tomorrow marks the two year anniversary of big business going woke. the question is this new form of capitalism delivering? we'll ask phil orlando one of the very first on sociably responsible investing. that esg movement, he was there before everyone. ♪.
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third dose eight months after the second dose. fox business chief national correspond denned connell mcshane is live at the white house with the latest. connell. reporter: charles, yeah these boosters are coming. we had a feeling it would be the case. it was made official from the recommendation from the biden administration, if you had pfizer or moderna plan to get yourself a third shot. what the covid response team announced that the public health experts say to give booster shoots this fall, eight months atcha received the second dose of pfizer or moderna vaccines. after the announcement was made, those with the johnson & johnson vaccine likely they will need a booster shot as well. they're waiting for for more data to come in before they make the recommendation. two out of the three moderna and johnson & johnson are lower in wall street trading. billions of dollars potentially
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on the line for these companies long term. the cdc director confirmed the issue is the effectiveness of the vaccine in the data preventing mild to moderate disease goes down. works well in our data preventing serious illness or death but i think the concern is that will start to go down as well because they have started to see that a little bit in the overseas data. so the boosters are coming. the other news came out of today's data, by the end of the day today 200 million americans will have received their first shot of the initial vaccine. they're still referring to this as the pandemic of the unvaccinated here. from the white house point of view, rolling out initial doses more important than the booster shot. more young people are starting to get those initial doses in the 12 to 15 age bracket. they say number of people vaccinated that has gone up by 75% just over the last month. charles?
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charles: connell, thank you very much. joining me a former member of the trump coronavirus task force admiral brett giroir. admiral, we got today headlines from the cdc director walensky, overall effectiveness for the delta variant and couple that with the booster shot development, how worried should folks be about us eventually being able to contain the virus? >> i think we will be able to contain the virus. we won't be able to eliminate it but the recommendations today, we saw them coming. we know that vaccine effectiveness wanes over time. so there is a time component. also the vaccines are just not as effective against delta. so i think the recommendations are sound. i have not seen data 18-year-old or 21-year-old need as shot. but particularly israel, gold standard in data, 50 and above are gets hospitalized suffering fatalities.
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this is an important step. charles: there is some scuttlebutt for lack of a better word that the white house might be getting in front of the fda on this. maybe a lot of this has to do with the news out of afghanistan in trying to change the subject. do you flow where the fda stands officially on booster shots? >> no. we don't know and let me say first of all it is a broken record here but president biden needs to submit a name for fda commissioner because we need leadership in that agency. number two, yes, they're a little bit ahead of the fda and they said so but they need to be. the public health standard for authorization in my opinion has already been met for the third dose. it heart also been met for full approval and they need to provide the leadership to the fda. these are regulators. they don't have to deal with dead bodies and public health recommendations. they need to do their job with regulation, authorize the third dose, fully approve at least the pfizer vaccine, very soon after
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the moderna vaccine. charles: now considering a mask mandate, i saw something yesterday, it was intriguing as a lehman, syrian hamsters, underscored aerosol exposure to the virus leads to more severe lung damage as exposure from clothes and furniture, things like that. does this kind of study helped credence to the idea we should be using masks? >> i think it add as little bit at the margins. you know i think our strongest data are those in humans, not so much syrian hamsters or whatever other species you want to put under the test but we know that masks are not perfect. we should admit that but masks do decrease your generation of viruses to other people by about 50%. they protect you by about 25%. these are not perfect but they are useful. until we get a really good handle on delta, i think we're going to do that very soon, it is very reasonable to mask
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indoor crowded places. i saw a person riding their bicycle with a mask but no helmet. that is kind of crazy, right? if you're outdoors you're safe. if you're indoors in crowded areas, even if you're vaccinated it is reasonable to wear a mask. charles: before i let you go, we are seeing stories, you know, reports obviously of rising hospitalizations but we're not really hearing that cases now starting to decrease here a little bit. i don't think deaths ever really spiked. you've been really strong about messaging. how important is it for citizens to get the full picture even if some officials think it is too much of a glimmer of hope and folks may skip over all other things we talked about? >> i have been straight for over a, for 15, 16 months we need to be honest with the american people and tell them the full picture and they will make good decisions. let me say i think the cdc has had disasterous messaging but
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today the covid briefing was good. number one they gave the data with the recommendations. they didn't give recommendations before data. number two when they told you they were making a judgment call. they were minimizing political rhetoric in biden campaign commericals with good science. i think this is good sign and tone of the briefing today. be straight with americans. we'll do the right thing. charles: that should be the slogan. admiral giroir, thank you very much. you have been straight, we appreciated it. thank you. well the white house on blast, folks. the biden administration telling americans still trapped in afghanistan well, they cannot guarranty safety to those trying to get to the airport. battle royale, superstar fund manager cathie wood going up against michael barry of the big short fame. who are you betting on? arc innovation fund or guy who made a whole lot of money when
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♪. charles: well the fomc minutes have been out for about five, 15 minutes, right? and the market initially shot up and then it shot down. you got to believe maybe those are the algorithms but so much is happening. certainly so much has happened since the last meeting. so the calculation has changed. certainly the thinking now, tapering will happen sooner rather than later. i will bring in quill intelligence ceo danielle dimartino booth, along with kpmg chief economist, constance hunter. first, ladies, a quick assessment of the minutes. were there any surprises, danielle? >> the surprise from my perspective how very revealing the minutes are how divided the committee is right now. it is very unusual to see this
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big of a line drawn down the middle between participates who feel the tapering should begin this year and those who feel they should wait to see more data and wait for a later launch date. so again, charles, it is very unusual. you have to remember we haven't seen a dissent on the federal reserve board since greenspan, since early 2000 when greenspan was in control. we have three very hawkish members rotating on to voting in 2021. you could see the potential right now for there to be a quadruple dissent if again these hawkish members don't feel they're being heard in terms of you know what? it is really time to start this taper. charles: so that point we had boston fed president eric rosengren. he is going crazy, right? that these purchases are ill-suited when you have these sort of supply constants and he wants to start tapering like tomorrow. on other side neel kashkari
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emphasizes the slack in labor market. he does say maybe we can do something before the year is over. constance, with the tug-of-war going on, the minces you have just seen, where do you think the fed is right now? >> i would add to that bullard just came out today and also made comments that tapering should start sooner rather than later. the question is, the balance sheet was seen as an extraordinary measure to help federal reserve policy. the question is are we at a point where nearly zero interest rates can do the job and the arbiter of this is of course the virus itself, right? so i call this sort of the delta derail. delta really has the potential to derail us now. of course the announcement from the cdc that people should get third vaccinations, the fact that we're increasing first dose vaccinations is all going to be really critical to making sure we don't have a full-on delta
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derail. charles: feels like if toe wait another eight months for people to get the third dose, that may be added to the fed timeline. i'm just guessing here. listen to this, let's say tapering is going to happen. what i would like to know from you is, just initially how much will we see? like in other words, will the focus be on mortgage-backed securities? the timeline, how long would it take to wrap it all up? i know you say delta plays a big role in that, constance. to that will we hear talk of fed rate hikes? let me ask you, danielle. i will start with you. i think bullard said something about rate hikes today. >> well the fed tries to be methodical in the approach to tapering. jay powell learned a lesson from double tightening and doing quantitative tightening and raise interest rates at the same time. the markets will perceive any tapering, talking about $10 billion. there is also discussion whether they should be equally tapering
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with treasuries and mortgage-backed securities at the same time. charles: right. >> or dip into mortgage-backed securities to cool down the housing market first. but in my mind at least, as long as powell is at the helm you will see equal amounts of tapering and a tear drop of each initially to test market reaction. these things they speak to wall street about? what can the market with stand? let's tiptoe into this. if powell has his way you're not actually tapering until 2022. oh, by the way they never taper, they never make any major policy decisions or tighten into a political morass. we'll have to get past the debt ceiling showdown before the fed will do anything. they're never political outright. charles: we remember what happened to president bush, the first president bush. real quick constance, it is interesting danielle says they want to take the small businesses maybe 10 billion at a time. with wall street they may have to take $10 at a time because there will be a tantrum no
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matter what. if they go ahead rip through this thing or really take these really, tiny, minute steps? >> well, look, i think they're going to try to avoid a tantrum. remember we only had the one tantrum at the beginning of the recovery from the global financial crisis. otherwise pullbacks have been fairly orderly. and the real thing is, what danielle highlighted the minutes suggest that they're leaning towards an even amount of mbs and treasurys which means proportionately mbs will go down faster. i don't think they will start until 2022. as powell said all along we'll telegraph our efforts well in advance so the market can prepare. charles: right. >> we've seen evidence rates are lower, term premium is lower because of the balance sheet. they're sort of saying can we let term premium go up? is the economy strong enough to handle that? it is really virus will dictate
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it. we'll get information next month, month 1/2. will we go back to school, not go back to school? all that will play in. i think we'll know a lot more mid to late september. right in time for the next fomc. charles: the infamous jackson home thing. by the way, folks, new zealand is where they want to be on employment and inflation. they did not hike rates today. to constant's point they pointed to the delta variant. tantrums, we had a tiny tantrum when janet yellen raised rates by a small amount that particular year. next three weeks market was under pressure. on wall street temper tantrums will work. thank you. i want to hear from you and the audience. comment on the show, questions for our guests. look at amazing people we bring on. tweet me @cvpayne. michael tweeted me, heavin
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forbid if the market crashes, what will the billionaires do, what will happen to the billionaires? thank you, michael. as long as we live to buy stuff. we don't need billionaires. billionaires will be okay. i call it trickle up economics. everyone talks about trickle down of the fact of the matter we can't wait to give our money to rich pima. >> tomorrow corporate america marking the second focus of enriching shareholders an helping everyone but does it really work? has it worked? we'll bring in phil orlando, a investing pioneer when it comes to esg. he is a straight-shooter also. with the southern border in disarray how will the biden administration handle the refugee crisis that is coming? we'll be right back. reason,
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♪. charles: so i posted a poll on twitter a couple hours ago, cv payne poll. this is what i said, this is what i put out there, it is quote, necessary to quote reasonably regulate, excessively high incomes end quote. encourage high income people and enterprises to return more money to society. common prosperity is the prosperity of all the people. now i asked who said this? was it bernie sanders, president biden, aoc or president xi of china? right now most people think is was, majority think it was bernie sanders. and i bring this up because tomorrow mark as really important anniversary, the two year anniversary in fact of the business roundtable when it had its woke epiphany shifted away from the notion they should solely focus on profits instead focus on stakeholders. the question after two years, has it made a difference? joining me now federated hermes phil orlando. phil, you were one the first to
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openly embrace esg movement. you have a big heart and but there is still a lot of skepticism out there. take it at face value, has it moved needle? want to invest in customers, invest in employees, foster and deal fairly and ethically with suppliers. has that happened? >> charles, thank you very much for having me back. we're very proud of the work we've done at federated hermes in in the esg market. i think the answer to your question is yes. true companies that adhere to the esg principles have been able to do all those things. they're doing right by their employees, their customers, suppliers, doing so within the broad overlay of being diverse and inclusive. so are we there yet? no, there is more work to be done but i think we've absolutely moved the ball down the field over the last couple years. charles: all right. so phil, vivek ramaswamy wrote
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in his book "woke, inc.," that esg is. what is he getting wrong. >> true esg company versus a green walker. green washer is pretending to be an esg company to pretend to create a halo effect. when you look at the achievement of the green washer, it didn't really move the needle much and the reality is they didn't move the needle much. a true esg company is going to be able to do well financially and make a contribution to society. so the key is to draw that distinction between the real company and the green washers. charles: so let's talk about that money part you just brought up. investing in the woke era hasn't necessarily been great, not this year. consider solar down, coal down a lot. meantime hot esg plays like honest corp., they have been crushed. last year the harvard review had a headline, why esg investors
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are happy to settle for lower returns. how true is that? >> we disagree. if you do right by the stakeholder you will do right by the shareholder. zoo when -- so when you look at investor he has a couple range of outcomes. he may be looking for pure financial returns. he might be managing his portfolio to match up with his value structure. he might be making a measurable contribution to society. they're all good things. we're all trying to address those markets but the reality responsible invest something the best way to create long-term value. true esg companies are able to perform better over time compared with companies we talked about the green washing. again we've got to draw the distinction between companies just quote, unquote, woke, versus companies that are true adherents to the principles of esg. you need to do well to do good
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and esg companies are able to achieve, in my opinion both of those objectives. charles: phil orlando, always appreciate your conversations. thank you so much. >> thanks for having me on, charles. charles: you know, folks of course we're living in this woke era and there are going to be trillions, trillions of dollars at stake. it is something i've been pounding the table on for a long time talking about really the impacts and here's my thinking. like anything that is going to see a major societal shift, you have first what they call the hype phase. have this no matter what. 3d printing, cell phones, whatever it is. post-hike phase. it didn't happen, will not happen. then everybody falls apart. realization phase where big, sustainable money is made. this is one of the things i cover all the time in my market daily commentary. it is free. go to check it out. meantime we'lling right back.
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♪. charles: a botched retreat from afghanistan has left thousands of strand #-d americans and even more afghans that assisted the united states as our allies. as we race to bring them home safely there is talk on capitol hill to carve out a big chunk of money to fund massive
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relocations. here is the rub, getting out all americans should be priority and make sure we vet properly anyone that comes through but how can we do that really effectively among all the abject fear and chaos? obviously also we just don't have limited amounts of money because we already used up a lot. i want to bring in independent women's forum patrice lee onwuka. before we get started what happens next. i want to get thoughts on images, hundreds of men, they hold hundreds of combat troops, overwhelmingly men and left women and children. what did you think when you saw the photos? >> charles, thanks for having me. it is heartwrenching. i wondered where are the babies, the wives, the mothers. where do the men think they get to the united states safely and bring the families back to be reunited at another time. boy, what happens to the afghan women? i think that is one of the biggest responsibility, you
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know, for our country, and women around the world to stand up for afghan women who have seen overnight all of their rights, all their freedoms they gained over the past two decades erode and overturned. charles: what about this vetting system? i have read where we do have one but how confident are you that we're really going to be able to use it real time in this panicky situation? >> charles, i'm not. i mean imagine trying to figure out who is just a u.s. citizen versus who is pretending to be. who could be a terrorist? using this opportunity to come to the united states. it is the same question we have at the southern border about who is being let in especially when the border is being overwhelmed. here we have at the kabul airport, you know, being, our government being overwhelmed trying to figure out who is who. this puts us in a very difficult situation. charles: how much cost do you think, do you think congress is going to put towards this,
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spending? according to brown university we spent 2.2 trillion, $300 million a day, 530 billion on interest payments alone. is there a place where we say we've got to draw the line? >> absolutely. i think there is too much spending to begin with. we're looking at another $4.7 trillions between infrastructure and additional 3 1/2 trillion dollar spending bill. i do think though, there is a place for us to have some money allocated for resettling individuals who served our country by serving our troops, helping provide intelligence or translation services. i think there is enough there. we can certainly cut down on some of the other ridiculous wasteful spending we've seen in these bloated spending bills right now. charles: right, right. amen to that, patrice. by the way to all the vets, iraqi vets, afghan war vets, i hope you don't feel like what you went through was in vain because we love you. we respect you. >> that's right. charles: we believe in what you
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did. thank you so much. patrice, thank you as well. >> amen. charles: we'll be right back ...
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market low investors are now comparing this rally to the one in 1935 when the same took only 346 days so it suggests maybe this incredible rally has at least six more months to go, of course past performance is no guarantee of current performance i'm going to bring in capital management gary kaltbaum along with ryan payne, a group that i'm not affiliated with, gary, you're a great student of market history. do you feel like maybe we're repeating 1935? >> well look in 35 you had more to go. i suspect there's more to go now but it's going to be very very narrow. half the market is just not doing it at my friend, and it's the small cap area, it's the chinese abr, it's a lot of what i call the stuff, like the travel-related and transport s and things like that, so stay big cap, stay with things that continue to work and act well off earnings report. i think there's more to go, just be very selective right now.
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charles: and ryan, to that point back then of course, we were in the middle of the great depression and saw a whole bunch of big rallies and big booms, right? over and over again, part of it was bad monetary policy, so that has changed, so maybe that helps this rally go this time? >> i think it does, just because there's so much cash that is getting invested i wonder what was like to party in 1935 i'll be thinking about that for a long time but i think the bottom line here is lots of cash has to get into this market , profits are going to continue to be phenomenonal through the end of the year and productivity is up huge right now, companies are just so lien and mean, and technologically advanced with their automation so this bodes to more upside in the market here. charles: i think we're in the middle of a capex spending boom, and these i.t. names to your point to get even better with automation. both of you guys have those throughout the year, and gary, you were really amazing
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because you told us six months ago, stay a was it from these hot ipo's, away from the spac, the ipo index is down 13%, the spac index down 35% respectively but does that mean maybe that we've shed most of the speculative fever that you are always concerned about, has most of that faded? >> i don't think so. i think there's more to go and look. it's about valuation. some of these valuations in these spacs and by the way a lot of these spacs they just put companies in there that are hunk s of junk but a lot of these ipo's some great companies but you are paying $20 for a $10 bill, but i can promise you and this is the good news for your you viewers. in the next 10 years your biggest winners will come from these initial public offerings and there's companies that are quadrupling their sales growth over a year or two, and it's going to be big winners but valuations have to come down. i suspect there's some bearish times to go and once that's over , i think there's going to
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be some big winners going forward. charles: you know the good news i think the general public knows that why a lot of these ipo's have been duds on arrival people agree they want to buy them cheaper. ryan you've been spot on about value but i want to ask both you guys about this battle happening between cathie wood and michael burry, of course everyone knows cathie wood now. who do you got in this one, who do you think is going to be right? >> i'm going michael burry, no pain no gain, of course that's p ayne. you can see that ark fund go up but at 120 times forward earnings it's like the dot com part two on steroids so i think all these stocks are completely overvalued like gary just said there's a lot of over valuation. we know how the tech bubble bursts we'll see a lot of the same. charles: real quick, gary i got 10 seconds, nvidia after the close, are you in either of them? >> i am not. i think in a bear market hood is
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down 50%, nvidia great company but i have no clue what's going to happen after the toss of a coin. charles: yeah, yeah, i have nvidia from a long time ago but it is so extraordinarily volatile. my brother from another mother great seeing you both always great information and the market which is sideways even after we digest the fomc minutes so what's going on i have a feeling liz claman will help us out? liz? liz: i don't know, charles you've got to look at the skies above the federal reserve in d.c. we got fed hawks dive bombing the fed doves as we kickoff this final hour of trade sending markets tumbling at one point to their lows of the session, they're off those now but the release of the fed minutes from the july meeting showing increasing discussion over reducing its $120 billion per month in asset purchases later this year. our floor show power panel reads between the lines for stock, bonds, and t


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