tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business April 9, 2021 11:30pm-12:00am EDT
life. may he rest in peace. that's it for us this week. for the latest updates, follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram, and i'll be back next week with more in-depth interviews right here on "the wall street journal" "the wall street journal at large." thank you very much for joining us. ♪♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get we behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter. can summer blockbusters bring americans back to the theater? and later, everything you want to know about cryptocurrency, why to invest, how to invest and how it fits into your portfolio. but we begin, as always, with what we think are the three most things investors should be thinking about right now. big tech stocks led the market
higher, lifting the nasdaq close to a record as rising covid-19 cases and concerns about the astrazeneca vaccine renewed interest in the growth trade. air travel appears to be staging a v-shaped recovery. but there are reasons to be cautious about stocks. and the prospect of higher corporate taxes is looming as the biden administration looks to fund infrastructure spending. which companies could face a hit? on the round table, ben levisohn, carlton english and jack howe. good to see you guys. ben, it was a pretty good week for stocks, but under the surface, interestingly, we've talked about the revival of value. we didn't see that this past week, it was all about growth. >> certainly not looking good for value. the s&p finished up 2.7%, but it really was the big tech stocks doing all the work. it was apple, microsoft, facebook, alphabet. these stocks had a fantastic week. and so if you look, value stocks did almost nothing, and this
isn't really new either. it's been over the past month. the invesco s&p 500 pure value etf has gained just 3.6% -- 1.6% while the pure growth etf is up 9.2%. jack: one thing to point out, the really speculative teching stocks were not the leaders here. they were kind of the more blue chip names, right? >> that's right. a lot of the speculative tech, the teslas, things like that, they really haven't been doing much. they haven't rallied in the same way that the fang stocks have. the good news for value investors though is that value stocks are still up about 22% this year while growth is up just 5.9%. jack: wow. you'd think it was october and we were talking about 22% gains year to date. but we're just past easter. looking ahead to next week, we've got bank earnings coming up, that's kind of a value trade. what are you looking for there?
>> that really is the value trade. banks are the biggest component of the value portfolio, and so these stocks are really key for value trade yet the question is are they going to be able to beat the high expectations. we'll be looking for loan demand, and also for whether the loans that they have made are holding up and whether banks will be able to release some of their reserves. jack: jack, let's talk about another area of the value trade, travel stocks. they, of course, got hammered. they'd been recovering pretty well, but now it might be time to get cautious, right? >> well, it depends what we're talking about. i think there are a lot of investors out there that are getting vaccine appointments, they're booking family trips, and next thing you know they're there with the floatieses on their arms and saying i wonder if it's too late to buy travel stocks right here. it's kind of a yes and no answer. darren fonda writes about air travel, and he says we could actually be headed for a golden age for air travel in the u.s.
domestic volumes are rebounding quickly. the wall street view is next week we'll still be 20% below pre-pandemic levels, but there are a number of analysts who say that's too conservative. we could be hitting new highs next year because of the pent-up demand. so if you're looking at the deltas and the southwests and jetblues, there could still be some upside there. if your looking at cruise lines, that -- you're looking at cruise lines, that business really hasn't reopened in the u.s. there's actually a lawsuit from the state of florida over that right now. andrew berry writes about carnival, and he basically says the shares don't look particularly cheap here, and there's an assumption that business will get back to normal within a couple of years. it might take longer than that. jack: you might see more float ties and sunscreens rather than people in suits. leisure travel might come back, business not so much.
>> well, i wear floatties on business trips. a lot of people don't want to be back in the office until fall, so business travel's a profit center for the airline business, and a company like delta has been a leader in that area for a long time. it really remains to be seen how quickly that business travel's going to come back. jack: carlton, while the t and e expense may go down for business, they're looking at a higher corporate tax rate. 28% was the number, now we're hearing 25 might be where we settle on. the market seems unfazed. >> i think for that that reason you pointed out. at first we were thinking 28, now we're hearing 25. what is that amount that's ultimately going to be this. i think the market also really understood as biden was campaigning that corporate tax rates were going to go up, we were probably going to see an increase in personal tax rates as well because we're doing a lot of spending. that has to get paid for in some
way. for right now, the market is willing to wait. as we get closer to that, history has shown whether it's a tax increase or decrease, the market typically starts to react within a few weeks of that announcement actually coming. jack: if they went to 25%, that would be the lowest at least before 2017 that we've seen since the '4 tos. so it's can -- 40s. but barron's looked at companies that won't benefit that much from the infrastructure play but might many get hit by a tax hike. >> exactly. so broadly speaking, the sectors that you're thinking of would be technology, consumer discretionary and financials. has to do with the income that they earn overseas. you would see a hit to earnings for those companies generally around 9 president if tax rates were to go up where the broader market would see a 7% increase. specific companies that were highlighted that my colleague
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♪ jack: last year theaters went dark thanks to lock dons that kept moviegoers at home. hollywood pivoted to streaming new releases, but now as more people get their vaccines, cinema operators are reopening. can this year's summer block busters bring patrons back? imax's ceo richard gelfond joins me now. good to see you again. god godgodzilla v. kong was ove8 million which was at the top of expectations. do you think that suggests maybe
the movie-going public is ready for a faster reopening than people might have expected? >> i think so, jack. as a matter of fact, last time we chatted i mentioned to you that in asia the numbers had come back, especially in china. much quicker and much higher than we'd anticipated. and, you know, we forecast that the u.s. probably would open quicker than most people think. and i think godzilla v. kong was a data point suggesting that is going to be the case. jack: so credit suisse did an interesting analysis, and there's such a blockbuster backlog that apparently this summer we will see an opening every 6.7 days which is twice the rate of 2019. so how does that work? will there be appetite to maintain that, you you know, to actually want to go to movies that frequently, and did it slow down a lot after that? is this just because so many films were made but couldn't be
shown? >> imax, as you know, is in the blockbuster business. that's what we do. so for us, that's terrific. and because a number of films were delayed because of the pandemic, there's a big backlog right now. so i do think there's be a big appetite to see the films. we've seen it with restaurants, other things, pent-up demand, people wanting to go out. if you look at '22, it looks really good as well. another mission impossible, a bunch of marvel films, an avatar sequel. so i do think even though there's a lot this
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♪ jack: bitcoin continues its historic rally creating regrets for many who wished they'd jumped in. but is the surge a trillion dollar bubble? it's our barron's cover story this week. ben, all this euphoria does feel bub liberties, but bitcoin and crypto generally has a real tailwind now that mainstream institutions are giving their stamp of approval. >> that's right. i mean, we were hearing about companies like square and tesla buying bitcoin and with square being the ability to trade it, but what we're seeing now is very mainstream companies that are trying to prepare for a
future where bitcoin is perhaps even bigger than it is now. we're seeing visa and mastercard trying to figure out how to add bitcoin to their payment networks, but you're also■ç seeg bank of new york is going to be offering custody service the way it does for stocks and bonds. and, i mean, part of this is just good business sense on their part. they could charge more for it, but it also shows that corporate america is preparing for a day when bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are more a part of mainstream life. jack: i think 0.04% of bitcoin, if it goes to 0, it's not going to hurt too much. could bebase coming up on april -- coinbase coming up on april 4th, and not only do they have more revenue or at least
they're on track to have more than the nasdaq in this calendar year, but the value of that■ç company could be approaching that of goldman saks. >> it's pretty amazing. this is not like an ipo that's coming out that doesn't make money. they are actually profitable. they could have a profit during the first quarter and a lot of revenue as well. i think first quarter is supposed to be around $1.8 billion. but that valuation is just amazing. it assumes that coinbase becomes even a bigger not just a bitcoin cryptocurrency exchange, but a much bigger part of the financial ecosystem here in the united states. 100 billion seems pricey. jack: so, jack howe, with bny giving the stamp of approval, this means bitcoin's worth a lot more, right? [laughter] >> well, look, i feel like i need to wear a bag over my head
before saying■ç anything skeptil about bitcoin. let me just say congratulations that your thing went from half a penny to $58,000 in a little over ten years. it's great. it doesn't mean you were right about your bitcoin thesis. it doesn't mean it's the future of money. money shouldn't move around like that or, you know, accidentally paying $75,000 for a latte. doesn't mean it's a hedge against inflation. it's done almost the opposite of what inflation has done. it's going up because, you know, fear of missing out. it's a not a doomsday investment. i recommend something that doesn't need an internet connection. it's going up because a lot of people are buying it because they don't want to miss out, and the institutions are getting in because they don't want to miss out, as ben says, on this new business opportunity that could push the price higher. if you're wondering whether you should buy it. i'm not going■ç to recommend it. think of it like the office lottery pool.
when they come around you say i don't play the lotto, but you know what? i'm in, because i couldn't live with myself if all my coworkers got rich overnight and i didn't. if you feel that way about bitcoin, try not to use the word allocation when you're talking about bitcoin. jack: not to mention if every single one of your coworkers wins the lottery on friday, you're going to have a lot of work to do on monday. because they're not going to be there. carlton, what should investors be thinking about? >> well, jack's going to hate me because i am going to talk about allocation here. but so you do want to start small. you don't put all your money in the lottery. so for bitcoin, the allocation of the portfolio, less than 3%. that's enough for a meaningful investment but also enough to protect if it goes the ore way. it's the type of investment you want to dollar co[t■ average ino and rebalance. typically, we rebalance our portfolios once or twice a year. bitcoin, when it starts to get out of whack, you either want to
trim it back down or use it as an opportunity to get back in. jack: what are some vehicles? i know it's not like buying a stock on the stock exchange. >> you can buy it on square, but you can also buy some of the index funds or the gray scale bitcoin trust. there are higher fees for this, so you do have to take that into account, fees of about 2% where a general index fund you're looking at next to nothing. jack: yeah. i think paypal's the way to do it. if you want to go in, keep it in that account. you could learn more in a market watch virtual event this wednesday. ben and carlton will be among our journalists taking part. our journalists taking part. up we love our new home. there's so much space. we have a guestroom now. but we have aunts. you're slouching again, ted. expired. expired. expired. thanks, aunt bonnie. it's a lot of house. i hope you can keep it clean. at least geico makes bundling our home and car insurance easy.
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retro, a manual shift car with a turbo engine. >> a stick shift. how you gonna eat? you've got to get an automatic. look, i spoke this past week with friedrich lasalle that knows all about transmissions. he's the ceo of ford warner, and we talked about electric car uptick. ford makes turbos, transmissions, but it also makes electronic drive modules and things for electric vehicles. we don't see an uptick in the u.s., but europe, they're up to almost a quarter of the market there. the tax incentives are quite large. here they might grow larger soon. people can disagree about what that means, but it surely means more electric vehicles. trading at 11 times earningses right now, friedrich said that by 2030 he thinks 2 out of 3 cars will have some form of electric propulsion including
battery-only cars and plug-in hybrids. you can hear all of that conversation on the barron's street wise podcast. jack: sounds like a nice peg if ratio. let's go to actual ideas. ben, what do you have? >> i. >> knew well brands. the stock looks like it's trying to break out. the company's been cutting back on the number of products it sells, cutting costs, and that's going to help margins. it also pays a 3.5% dividend. jack: sharpie pens are my 7-year-old favorite thing in the world. carlton, an interesting reminder. >> well, normally i'd be reminding you to pay your taxes this weekend. i'm saying now you can maybe hit the snooze button. the federal deadline was extended to may 17th. but if you're expecting that third stimulus payment, had a change of circumstances, you may want to file a little bit earlier, and also you may want to double check the dates for your state taxes. some of that may differ from the federal timeline, and also