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tv   To the point - Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Putins backyard  Deutsche Welle  January 14, 2022 6:30pm-7:00pm CET

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sabre rattling freshen and kelly's in the former soviet republics of ukraine, bella rosen cassock, stop. so does vladimir putin want to create a new post soviet older? and how should the weather respond to find out on to the point? shortly? to the point with d. w. they want to know what makes with love and banding thing that away from them, but i'm not even know how to work my own car and everyone with later holes and everything. the way of getting you ready to meet the german. then do i need to do it on d, w? mm. it sometimes seems as though russian president vladimir putin wants to turn back the clock is being insisting that the west should provide russia with far reaching security guarantees or face the consequences of it doesn't. what exactly does moscow want,
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and how should the west respond? on to the point we ask ukraine, bella ross, kazakhstan putins, back yard with a thanks so much for joining us here on the show where my studio guests are rachel tolls, and freud editorial director at the german marshall fun to thinks russia may be willing to pay a high price to shape the future of its neighbors, but the us cannot back down. also with his market kind from the german institute for international and security affairs. who argues that in geneva, it was all about the u. s. and russia. if europe doesn't get a more active role, it will simply be sidelined by the big powers and a warm welcome to to because brochure. yeah, from dw russian department. he believes the russian wolf is at the door. so all the
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western ducks going to try and sit this one out too if so. good luck. interesting stuff. plenty to talk about. so let's get home with it. mikhail you are laughing. tell us a little bit about the ducks and the wolf. what does it all mean? listener, if we see it is a game though, morally it's, it's problematic, but if we see it as a game, then we can see a huge a symmetry in the conflict between the western russia. aware, russia is ready to raise the stakes. knowing it is a weak a player, are it still has skin in the game and is ready for for action while the west is not. and that's the, the huge difference between them. so the problem is, are, i don't see in the moment, are any, any idea are to stop putting from doing what his are planning to do
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ridge, what have you got to sober about who is threatening, who from your perspective? i mean, the threat is definitely emanating from russia. they have over a 100000 who are the weakest partner or the weaker partner of just learned. i mean, they are the weaker partner, but they wanted more and wanted more has strength. also, they're not that week. i mean, russia wants a security guarantee they're one of the biggest, most well armed armies in the world, so relatively weaker. yeah. that the idea that they need a security guarantee is, is, you know, farcical. no, but they're the aggressors, they're the ones who want it more. the west, the u. s. and europe, they would rather not have to deal with this issue. this is not number one, number 2, not number 3 on their list until russia makes it. and that's in a symmetry indeed. so marcus came, i'd be interested to know what you have to say about her, about this sir, about who's to blame to taking us to the edge of a conflict that a leading german newspaper said could pose
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a threat both to europe security architecture and the international order, how bad is it? it's really bad. and regardless of the situation in ukraine and the efforts to contain the crisis in ukraine, i think the overall thing effort of the russian neither ship to re framed the european insecurity architecture or to redefine the european security are the architect of even bigger concern for the europeans, because in that really turns bank the clock until bank for the beginning of the 90 ninety's, we have to keep in mind and with a cut cut off for the 9090. we agreed on, we agreed on the fact that every country in europe is entitled to truth, the political military lines it wants to belong to. and if we would agree with the russian, that this is not except the acceptable and new more if we would accept spheres of influence, fears of interest in europe, that would be more or less the division of europe like yard half the end of the
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cold war rachel, i mean, we talk about who's, who's provoking here, who is to blame. i picked up a line from you, a secretary of state, tony blink, and who was quoted as saying, nato didn't promise not to grow. that sounds as though he has a he still has a considerable appetite for expansion and enlargement. that can't put flooding may putins mind at rest. surely. i mean, it's not that the u. s. or, or, or the other nato partners want to spend one to grow. but if the principle that every state should be able to choose what it wants. and that's the principle that the u. s. a. nato cannot back down from, they can't tell ukraine, they can't tell, let's say poland, which is actually what foot would also want us already. poland. russia doesn't want you a nato, so it doesn't matter what you want. we have to listen to russia. that's the principle that nato absolutely cannot back down from. and it's a principle of ukraine's choice. ukraine has clearly said it's in the constitution
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now that they want to join nato. and why do they want to join nato because they feel threatened by russia not by nato. so it's about dominance, right? it's not about sort of threat to russia it's, it's an attack on russian dominance of its neighbor countries. and frankly, put and doesn't want ukraine to be successful. and to have a democratic western european or nato based path, because that would get russians thinking that maybe they could have a better situation. that's what it's really a problem. rachel. the problem is that for the worst and fo nato, the ukraine, for example, is just a small puzzle piece. while for russia, it's a centerpiece of her, of her lead, say, strategic, her thinking strategic plans. and that, that's what makes or the difference. and that's what makes the a symmetry really are in the conflict. now, i just wonder before we move before we move on, whether it is how easy it is to dismiss vladimir proteins concerns. because since
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1997, the west has built a real a film little arc of nations from the report the baltic republics in the north right down to bulgaria, romania, albania, or the south. not so that that is surely and understand or it is understandable that won't be me put in views, that has a for it that scenario. but it was perceived as the threat by the russian leadership at the time. and i think it's, it's a conditional agreement. and the conditional and argument, i think with 2 major caveats, 1st, know me drop permanent deployment of nature. troops on this. all of those countries which have been become a member of nato. since then, there is a military present, but it's on a rotating basis. and no nuclear weapons on a will be deployed to, to these countries. and as far as i can see, need to with,
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or upholding these commitments of the nato, russia, phonic of 1997. so actually it's, it's a part of a new or more recent rough narrative being threatened by ne, to been encircled by natal. this is not the time that has not been the case in the 90 ninety's. so why now, what, why now this new narrative was changed. i think it is, the russian foreign policy has become more, some, to make a long story short, more revisionist, or more aggressive, more in focused on reconstituting some kind of pulled soviet, i wouldn't call it the empire. but a room of political dominance and room of political head, germany ok, more on that shortly. pretty much everybody agrees that there is currently a lot at stake in relations between the us and russia. there, let's get a further feel for the uncompromising towed of the rhetoric on the 2 sites.
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for months, hooton's menacing presents has leaned along the border with ukraine, where 100000 troops in heavy military equipment are reportedly being massed. moscow has been attempting to destabilize the former soviet republic since 2013, when protests against ukraine's pro russia government resulted in the ousting of its then president. perhaps the annexation of the korean peninsula which belongs to ukraine, was just the beginning. in any case, russia is laying out its own directors for negotiations with nato. we need iron clad. what that through bullet, through the legally binding gear, and she's not assurances, mot safeguards, guarantees with bull rewards show must everything that should be put in. these bo never, never be coming. member of nato and nieto is countering we will never compromise
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on the rights for every nation in europe to choose his own pulse, including all to handle security arrangements in want. so to be part of newton also wants to avoid the deployment of heavy military forces in eastern europe. is it still possible for mitchell 10000? correct debt is for is given those 2 very r o, positional positions uncompromising positions, is, is repulsion law possible at this point in time where we're, we're, we're experiencing new tensions and new language. it is, i mean, in, in, in the main fundamental conflict, there is no solution. russia wants to be able to control broo crane bout you, cain belarus at all of these other countries and their choices, nato cannot shut the door, right? both of committed to this fundamental position. there are however ways, right,
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and this is, i think with the negotiations are working on that one. i mean, russia, what they're saying is a max meliss position. never ever go, it guarantees that ukraine, but one could imagine some kind of compromise where it's clarified for 10 or 20 years that ukraine has no potential for nato membership, which is the reality in, in any case, right. i mean, in any case, nato is not eager to open the doors ukraine, while there's a low level conflict in war going on with russia. so the fact is, ukraine's not joining nato any time soon. and maybe there's a compromise where they pick some kind of time frame that both can live with and in a way rushes already winning in that it's re establishing itself as the big european partner who is sitting at the table with you. i had to say, this is the other thing that i think put in one it, you have to remember obama called russia, a regional power, very dismissive was excluding russia from different global form as, as a punishment for by the way, aggressively invading another country. so i think this is already
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a win for russia because we're again taking them seriously that washington, which wants to be only paying attention to the conflict with china, is again talking about european security spending all of its energy on talking to russia. so newton's already, we've got something out of this, but it's only a temporary win in my eyes. i think he is not content with with that though it's, it's a step forward. but i think in, in a consequence, he's seeking a recalibration of, of, you know, power are structured in the region. so i, i don't, boy, i don't read a don't by the, you know, the, the talks about her, this maximum list, ultimate goals. because i don't think that's the, the real, you know, real concern. now, at least in moscow, they want t t, you know, t to get ukraine back as a whole and not content with the crimea and the, the eastern state let's. yeah, they want more,
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and that's the point and i don't see any it. well that's a, i don't see the west think something in, in, in reaction that can stop him effectively. marcus guy, do you see that some of interpreted vladimir proteins actions in recent weeks and months as a, as a huge kind of bluff with a 100000 soldiers in the field? is that, is that how you see it and has he, has his bluff perhaps just begun to be cold in britain? 2 reasons. interactions? no, because i never read this military exercises as a military threat, at least so far. the purpose has been more political. want to put political pressure on the west and to get something out of in a totally group. rachel, he got something out of it. he got the recognition to be one of the world leading paul is one of the super polls or major polls college major pause to negotiate on
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and on an equal level on par with united states. with the button administration, he's considered to be one of the or determinants of the future european security order in a bad way. but we have to take in doing, we have to take into consideration the russian policies, the russian position. and i think he's maybe not the winner of the last couple of weeks, but he got something out of it. we can give us a, give us a sense of how ordinary russians are going to be responding to what we're hearing. this is a victory. i'm understanding for vladimir putin is that, is that how it's going to be seen by people on the street in russia? well, i think people are afraid of, of a major war where the neighboring country are. i think many people, especially elderly people who are watching state run tv woods, just believe what they are sad in,
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in the media in the state run media are so, and i'm afraid that people are ready to accept the costs of war that's, that's a huge problem. i mean, the, the reason why putting is so in bold and to, to, to, let's say, take a military option is and to have it is that he knows you still can, you know, sacrifice some prosperity in the country for the sake of greatness, et cetera. driving me, put in, it was sir in 2005 said that the collapse of the soviet union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. is that an idea that is still resonating through russia? is that an, a perception of the world that many wrote russians share? because it's right at the corner of who vladimir putin is and that why he acts the
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way he does on the political stage? i would suggest, well that's his personal opinion, but to some extent, oh, probably yes, i don't know it we, we, we have some, you know, on some social, our own own studies on that. but i don't know if we have to take it at face value anyway. the vision of it as a catastrophic. i don't think it's so widely accepted in, in the society is by putting itself is certainly not accepted in ukraine any to it . right. and so i'm in probably in cost on, in, in, in, in many other countries on a former soviet countries as well. so, so that, i mean, it's not going to come easy if, if it's not only a bluff. and if photon really is considering invading, ukraine may be also only to destabilize it or to win
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a few more pieces of strategic territory. and it's, it's not going to be easy because ukrainians are quite united against russian aggression. then they will put up a fight. although the west probably, if it were to come to it won't help them enough. are you sure to visit the top of the show that the, with the west most effectively risk respond in kind. you seem to be implying what line should the worst take your versus that if it's invasion or something similar to an invasion does come. biden has already ruled out a military intervention on behalf of ukraine. the europeans would have never considered it in the 1st place. back in the us when crimea crimea was a next you had voices in the us calling for a more robust military support of ukraine, and it was the europeans who said no. so biden has taken a pragmatic view that this is just not something that the europeans and the americans will sign up to. so they have to think of other things which are economic
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sanctions as hard as they possibly can be. that seems to maybe have had some impact on putting thinking, but this is the activity that michelle was talking about amid russians will put troops on the ground. they already have a western powers won't, but they'll do as much as they can to support crane and, and that's the tricky thing. i mean, that's what we, we want to avoid that in any case. and this is what the diplomats are right now as we speak. working on what can they give russia that isn't sacrificing a core principle and sacrificing ukrainians. why should be marcus? actually i'm my concern is that during the russian us talk on monday, nobody wrote was rudimentary mims agreements. so the, the actual, we have diplomatic improve to go pathways on the table and woods can be, which can be followed since 2015. but nobody's ready to do this mirage and slow the agreement for different reasons which i understand. but business, my concern the,
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there's no political solution on the paper where it theoretically, or we have there all the pieces are available. oh, but nobody's really need to know what is ready currently to step forward and to started promoting them effective. and then i spoke to the end of the by nathan trade. i was now they're quite active. i mean, what, there been, you know, dozens of meetings, very high level meetings, i think now they're engaged. yeah. but it does seem that they're not engaged on the terms of mince anymore. it's going to be something new. and that's bad news for europeans in the sense of the european ownership of the process because minsk was kind of a european deal. and now it looks like whatever deal happens while the u. s. is very, very careful to include the europeans and is actively including deer pins in the end. it looks like it's going to be a u. s. negotiation with russia and the europeans are not the leading. the leading
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crafter of any kind of deal. but i'm afraid that the ironic thing is that means kissed out essentially, and that's why they even didn't mention it. that's. that's basically also the reason why prudent is, is trying to say, or i'm ready t for action because minister is doubt. so the, some, some minimal goals of all the kremlin administration or not. ah, i, ah, they haven't gotten there yet. so, and that's the point. ok, let's just change the perspective a little bit and take a quick look at rushes. hasty intervention in kazakhstan was this flooded me put in a responding to the vicissitudes of international politics. or is it all part of some complex long term strategy? with debris cleared and the morning of victims in erie column has descended on the cassock. megacity of alma t protests were sparked by rising oil and gas prices in the
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resource rich country. they are also being directed against the corrupt government, which is entangled in an internal power struggle. the authoritarian regime responded with a shoot to kill order is the property of human. non harris is continued to damage, public and private property and use weapons against civilians. are new to them organ i'm here to me. i have ordered security forces to shoot to kill without warning. there's people pretty talk. i have appealed to a russian lead military alliance for support. tanks and soldiers are keeping the pace for putting this present an opportunity to influence the situation, both externally and internally. at a military alliance video conference, he vowed to stop any color revolutions. what exactly are the russian presidents, interests and catholic stand with?
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what is fighting they're putting up to in kazakhstan? i think it's part of the larger picture to recreate notice of the empire and in the territorial sense, or to crater russian empire in terms of his own money to create political influence . and using a variety of methods which we have seen over the last couple of years, starting with cyber tanks, experience propaganda over the use of end of the use of ethnic russians living in countries in the near and in the neighborhood. a rattler over using politically the u. this low intensity conflicts sometimes called frozen conflicts. the russian periphery over disturb living open the 3rd parts of the other countries. thornburg and the handful of others saw. that's russian toolbox below i think it ought. so it's the same purpose to create and maintain political
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influence and her germany, and the postal read space. they are, why would i wouldn't go so far as marcus for me just, you know, on expected belated christmas gift that wouldn't just or took her happily bird. it's not a huge strategic planning of him. it just came and he took it as it came. and the thing is, i mean, there's one funny episode recently put in couldn't even pronounce the name of the cars. are stony president, properly just told some jibberish, you know, are, and that's for me, a sign that, that something different is on his mind. not, you know, a president's her name, but natal, i dunno, washington ukraine. keith, what's whatever. but that was nice. that was r r a possibility for him, for a real sure force to show to,
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to show the world the autocrats in the region to show washington. okay, i've got here are a military organization that is capable of something. are that we internally in the region. we're talking for years and years and years, and now it's active. look at this that it does it's, i don't see any, you know, bigger strategic planning behind what's your worst case scenario for, for, for the next a year or 2 to come in terms of causes done or in terms of her in terms of the argument. putin's continuing influence over the, over this very, very broad region. well, i'm afraid that he's going to invade ukraine by means that we don't know yet on he's calibrating them now behind the talks in geneva. so that's the point. that's what i'm afraid of ritual you. yeah, worst case scenario,
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ukraine and the others are left alone because the aeroplanes in the u. s. can't agree on anything that's strong enough to push back against. that's a worst case scenario. i hope it won't happen. best case scenario is a peaceful update of the post $945.00 structure of european security that takes these states sovereignty seriously, but include thresh at that. ok. and again, varies at the same time, is all this as a new german government. so i'm just wondering what marcus is, your advice would be to the new german government as they contemplate this crisis prepared for the worst we go optimistic this the same. i mean that's would be a hot test for, for the new government. and old sholtes, do you think the new government is going to be strong enough to go head to head with, with the russians with potent? i don't, i don't really know, but i'm in trick to see what they ought to know. if they live up to,
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to the see to engineers there. okay. we've been dead. we've been looking at flooding mapleton sir. moved to create possibly a new post soviet, over in eastern central and asian territories. thanks so much for joining us. see you next time, bye bye. insurance ah, a with
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