tv Campaign 2024 Congressional Redistricting in Florida and Michigan CSPAN October 26, 2021 4:23am-4:49am EDT
>> currently there are about 334 million people living in the united states. that is according to the 2020 census figures were there represented in congress by two senators each of the 50 states and 435 members of congress. that 435 number has been set by law since 19209. --1929. now, with a new census figures out which take into account the population growth in the united states and geographical and demographically changes as well, the every ten year congressional redistricting will start. the new districts will be in place for the 2022 midyear elections. some states have lost members of congress, new york and pennsylvania are two, while some like texas and florida gained new members. well, to help us delve into those numbers is dave wasserman of the cook political report. mr. wasserman, when you
look at the census figures and the redistricting that is ahead, which political party do you see as benefiting the most at this point? >> we are going to have to wait to find out. the census showed a country getting more diverse, more urban protection 52% loss of population june 2010 and 2020 that goes to show rural america is declining relative to america's cities and suburbs. on the surface that is goodness for democrats because after all they are the party doing better in cities and suburbs. the caveat is the country's politics have not changed that much in the last ten years. this added diversity, the growth is not necessarily made it more favorable they won the white
house by this same popular vote margin 2020 that they did in 2012. the more important part of this is how lines are drawn from state to test states republicans get to draw the maps in 20 states totaling 187 districts. that is because state legislatures for the most part of the ones who bear responsibility for this compared to 75 districts in eight states democrats control. they dropped more than twice as many districts as democrats. there also ten states these independent bipartisan commission that six states that split between legislature of one party and a governor of the other. that adds up to 46 districts. there are six states that only have one district in the upcoming decade and do not need to divide their states into multiple seats. >> six states organic members of congress texas, florida, north carolina, oregon, montana and colorado.
seven states are losing a member of congress: new york, pennsylvania michigan, ohio, illinois and west virginia. when people move out of a state like illinois or west virginia, two states have lost a population -- lost population and each are losing a seat as well. do they take the politics with them or frustration of the politics? >> we increasingly hear of voters were throwing their hands up in the air become to inhospitable for their beliefs and choosing to move elsewhere. it takes a lot of vigorous research to determine the size of that affects, how blue or red estate becomes. but, what we know is that over time as voters either choose to live in places that are more politically comfortable or as independent voters began to lean more and
more towards whatever party isn't dominant because of an echo chamber affect whether social media or the predominant feeling in their community that we are seeing more geographic polarization. that plays into redistricting in a big way. if the states had in its boundary every precinct that was 50/50 between the parties it would be impossible for partisans to gerrymander that state and heavily red or blue districts. imagine for a moment estate that -- a state that has become heavily polarized between blue urban areas and red rural areas that is easier than ever to essentially compartmentalize democrats and republicans into districts where the outcomes are preordained. the net effect of
redistricting we cannot be sure which party is going to benefit or it could be a wash, the net effect is were going to see fewer competitive districts than there are now. >> dave wasserman when it comes to drawing maps, which matters more geography or demographics? >> well, they are inextricable. they are inextricably linked. in a lot of states what we have seen is that minorities have accounted for most of the population growth on a net basis in the last ten years. the rural districts and many states have lost population grown slowly need to expand into suburban territory but however for power outage and they will try to pack democratic votes into a small number of districts to maximize republican opportunities elsewhere. democrats and many states are at a geographic disadvantage. the state of wisconsin where the state overall is pretty evenly divided
pre-but democratic votes are concentrated overwhelmingly blue cities even if you draw a map is very compact and draw the districts that is madison, draw a district that milwaukee. the other six districts it could generate six republicans, just in a pretty even state. floors by the state that can congressional seats for they had eight and they currently will have 28 seats. what is happening in florida? clicks every 10 years since world war ii, florida has been a state that can congressional seats. they had eight in 1940. -- >> florida is perhaps republicans suit gerrymander. -- republicans's biggest opportunity to gerrymander.
republicans got to draw them up there somewhat constrained by the new state constitutional amendment called fair districts florida. it was passed by voters in 2010 to try to curb gerrymandering. now republicans had their map overturned by courts was democrats gaining a few seats in the orlando area and in st. petersburg. but what is happened in the past for years the florida supreme court is taken a hard right turn. there are now six very conservative judges out of seven at the supreme court. republicans speculate the court will be more lenient in considering what republicans draw this time. so republicans could take their advantage in the delegation from 16 -- 11 which it currently is right now to perhaps as much is 19 -- nine. that would effectively be
a three seat gain for republicans, two-seat loss for democrats. the democrats and the most jeopardy are stephanie murphy north of orlando, the open charlie crist seat in the st. petersburg area. keep in mind though, republicans also have to shore up some of their own vulnerable incumbents including two members in the miami area, carlos a menace in the 26th district and maria salazar the 27th district. host: and out joining us is a matt dixon of politico. he is a senior florida reporter for that publication. he is in tallahassee. in florida since world war ii has gone from eight congressional seats to 28. they seem to benefit every redistricting ground. >> you are absolutely right the population growth so once again given one congressional seat
interesting for a lot of the chatter has been a pretty massive population influx into the sunshine state. it landed with one and they're starting the process of drawing the congressional and state legislature map. we have some idea where it might go but very much stay tuned. >> where is the main population growth in florida these days? it is along the central strip of the state. kind of orlando in the middle but tampa over too daytona beach that central strip of the state is really where the vast, vast majority of the population growth here has come through since the last census. that's an essential where people go. it's the best and data point on that democratic representative from orlando. his seat right now has a 1 million people in it. that's 770,000 supposed been a congressional district but. >> so with the district being
overpopulated, who do you see him losing and is it going to benefit that population growth the republicans of the democrats? >> it's really hard at this point it is so preliminary so early in the process here to see where those districts are going to go. it's really a regional conversation. his seat in central florida in the orlando area of the early snapshot of florida's population growth is moved with a number of people who come here but what's going to be interesting to watch from legislated to the congressional level is going to be redrawn. there are so many people there going into the 2022 swindled drastically different. there's almost certainly going to be a new congressional seat there
with the democratic house majority word is that new florida congressional seat goes is going to be kind of important for the overall and more national conversation. >> that said, mr. dixon, who gets to decide how these districts are redrawn? >> the florida legislature. in florida there is not an independent commission or specific body, later on this a weak sorted week generally the florida house and senate those committees how any bill becomes a law is essentially legislation here both of those chambers look over their own ideas and on maps. they will have to figure out how to settle on final maps before those configurations that process will end up in court is all redistricting does. will kind of go from there the process itself starts with a legislature.
>> is the legislature controlled by republicans like the governor's office is right now florida? >> it is. the legislature here is been dominated for almost three decades by the republicans. the senate is a little bit closer. the florida senate republicans control there is some influence there. democrats have some sway it's a very, very red chamber. overall, the florida legislature is a republican body but. -- body. >> doesn't governor desantis have a role with us? >> yes he does. he will has to sign off on the legislative in the congressional at courts. he will have a role in some of this. i will note, i'm sure some will chime in and have conversation to whatever degree governors do, it's kind of on the backseat on this one. ultimately a judge will prove
the maps drawn by the florida legislature. or they will look at the maps drawn by the courts here because there is likely to be some illegal gerrymandering. >> what is the timeline for the process? >> that is a good question for the timeline was thrown off a lot with the late census in the census data the process was delayed a covid florida the last redistricting process this was completely different. there've not been public hearings across the state and the show to draw these maps and solicit public input. i would suspect there are certain to meet now i was suspect by the end of this year would have much better sense of
what these things would look like. because this process nears me timeline perspective they want to cover ten years ago. there is still some questions don't hold me too these answers. >> in that ten years mr. dixon florida's population is grown by about 15% 21 and a half million people. matt dixon is with politico. we appreciate the update on florida redistricting. >> thanks so much. >> 2 midwestern states that are losing members of congress, ohio and michigan. are they similar or do they each have unique characteristics? >> ohio and michigan are two of the biggest wildcards in this round of redistricting. ohio has a new reform in place that is a pre-complex reform. the legislature has to come to some bipartisan agreement in order to pass right now republicans do hold a super
majority in the ohio legislature. the reform says you have to have a majority of both parties supporting a map to become effective. michigan has a citizen's commission in place that resembles the one in california. however this is the first go around for michigan's commissioners there's already a lot of controversy surrounding the process. republicans believe at least one of the commissions independent members, sympathizes with democrats and has supported causes on the left in the past. democrats are very concerned the commission has hired an attorney that's worked in the past. there is a lot of finger-pointing commissioners are pretty inexperienced when it comes to drawing political maps. it has a very tight deadline for turning around both legislative and congressional maps. the main
problem in michigan where democrats currently hold seven of the 14 seat. republicans hold seven of the 14 seats, is that it is difficult to untangle these boundaries. and keep incumbents and districts. the district is not going to take incumbency into account very much. the democrats problem is that six of their seven members who all live within a few miles of each other, and the detroit area. a lot of these detroit districts are going to need to expand into more republican territory since the state is losing a district. even though you are moving from a map that was drawn by republicans ten years ago, to a commission drawn map this time it could still be democrats at more risk. >> sergio is doing is. did michigan lose population about 10 million people live in
michigan currently, why is michigan losing a seat? >> thanks for having me today. the reason for sluggish growth truly michigan saw an increase in population but it was not as big as other states. so michigan joined the other states in the region that ended up losing a seat. >> so where is the population lost in the state and how will that affect the redistricting? >> great question. the population has been shifting in the states. detroit used to be the booming city or most of the people used to live in the state. that is still the case we have seen it has reduced its number by 300 -- 400,000 people in the last decade. now we have seen a shift from detroit to west michigan that's a receipt grand rapids, kalamazoo and other areas that may becoming hipper and more welcoming to those people moving into the state.
>> does that favor the republicans by the end of the day they've moved into west michigan. they've gone to urban areas who know when people move to urban areas, they tend to benefit democrats. truly i think it's too soon to say whether republicans or democrats will have a win here. what we are seeing though is there are complications we talked about redistricting and we see the population moving from detroit. detroit is the area where we have seen the majority minority districts. or the minority population have significant power in electing their candidates of choice. people leave the area at the redistricting commission has to try to figure out how to maintain or preserve some of
those districts despite the loss in population. host: it is a redistricting panel that will be doing the heavy lifting in michigan. >> that is right it's a redistricting panel. the legislature in michigan was the political boundaries. it was the who drew the lines and of course led to some of the most gerrymandering districts in the country. also gave republicans a significant advantage in legislature. now in 2018 the michigan voters that created the deer is overwhelmingly supported a constitutional amendment that created the independent panel. it is made up of four republicans, four democrats and five independents. they have never drawn maps before. but they are the ones doing it this time around. the idea is they will drive this
-- druthers matt. >> the state legislature already being redistricted in this round question. -- this round. >> the state is being redistricted. that will be interesting because truly right now, the advantage in the legislature between one party and the other is not significant , it is not that big. even though the republican party overall sees less state wide votes could significantly change as well. but truly trying balance the act of making sure not giving a party in advantage -- an advantage that is too big like we have in the past. >> mr. martinez-beltran, what is the timetable for this commission and then what happens after that? >> the timetable if you ask the
commission, they had a deadline of last month they were supposed to have it ready to see. the reality is that delays on the census data, on those numbers are used to draw the map have made the commission have pushed them to create a new timeline for them. they are a couple of deadlines approaching. the commission is hoping to put their final maps are semi final -- or their semi final maps out for the public. it's going to be. for people to comment on it. then they are hoping to come back, make some tweaks if they have to and then publish the maps on december 30. then the maps will become available soon after the become the law soon after. >> so the legislature and the governor have no role in saying gay or nay to these maps? >> no role. that is significant other states the legislature has to give approval or the governor to give
approval. but in michigan is the -- this independent commission is the only one that draws the maps. and so they really do not need to hear from that legislature. at the end of the day what it is doing is creating a safer space or at least a space that is free of the letter the influence from the legislature or the executive. >> what is bridge, michigan? >> great question. it is a nonpartisan nonprofit outlet. we focus on policy and politics and we are trying to go deep on the stories that matter to the people and trying to break down issues of importance like redistricting that are not super sexy or super interesting but they have an effect on everyday people. >> thank you for your time.