tv Parag Khanna Move - The Forces Uprooting Us CSPAN December 31, 2021 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
these precious days, a collection of essays by novelist and after that is memoir, the storyteller and wrapping up the best nonfiction books, paul mccartney's book of behind the scenes look at the song cd has written. .. booktv.org. >> and now i'd like to welcome to p&p live parag khanna celebrating the release of his new book "move: the forces uprooting us", ," compelling lk at the powerful global forces that will cost billions of us to move geographically over the next decade. rushing in an era of radical change. he is a founder and founder and managing partner of a global project advisory firm
that specializes in data driven scenarios and visualizations. international best-selling author of seven books. virtually of butch brooks on the future of world order beginning with the second war including with -- one of the 75 most influential people of the for 21st century featured in wired magazine smac list. he earned a phd from the london school of economics a bachelors and masters in the school of foreign services right here at georgetown university. he joined in conversation today with michael hirsch, senior correspondent and deputy news editor at foreign policy, previously national editor of political " magazine and authorf two books, how washington's wisemen turned america's future
over to wall street and at war with ourselves. a chance to build a better world. join me in welcoming michael hirsch, thank you. >> thank you, alan.. thanks to those of you who are here with us. we hope to have an invigorating conversation and i would like to start by saying this is a bold and brave book to be publishing at this juncture in the sense that conventional wisdom at least in washington where i am is focused on the idea that we are deep globalizing xenophobia has taken hold of the national conversation with the pandemic, we are looking more and more and your book you go indirectly the
opposite way saying we need to prepare ourselves for mass migration and perhaps i think the overarching idea in the book seems to me as you say, it's become geography is destiny, that's not the case you say. could you talk about that and why you are arguing this direction now? >> thank you. i am delighted to do this for them the first or second the first wave so is really exciting in terms of teasing out this, globalization, migration, the pandemic, u.s.lion policy, migrn as part off globalization, not all of it. the mood in washington but
doesn't necessarily correspond to reality and the rest of the world and may not follow that move even in the u.s. we are a mass migration society, always have been and always will be, quite frankly. to jump the gun, as you saw from the most recent sentence released from right under trump's nose, more diverse and mixed race and so forth so not in terms of political polarization but demographics we will say prompted. it's a feature of global society, western civilization history, of each of modern life and exactly first if you look at canada's immigration policy, germany's immigration policy, even britain and its easier to migrate into the united kingdom todayy than before brexit.
right now as we speak, they are talking, that's a fact. even places dialer the embodiment of the nation, the knee-jerk border closing in populism, mass migration is alive and while looking at biden policy, that's one thing. then the pandemic, i finished before the pandemic but a buddy of mine strengthened the argument in many ways. let's acknowledge the lockdown was the most significant coordinated act in the history of the world, governments had never know strictly come together behind anything and in the opposite direction, they closed every border, the world stood still. people moved, people moved home. the largest movement of people in the year 2020 was a couple of
millions, south asian, construction workers and migrant workers, the majority of the population, they moved home. not only did they move home, they also moved not just to cities but to farms and there was a tractor shortage in the state, and agro agricultural stay in india not far from where i was born because they decided to become farmers again and it's driving back so moving within countries is a theme of the book vast majority is within countries and i talk about that as well. does it register in washington that the largest mass migrations are within china, india, africa? note doesn't make them less significant to the human species? of course not. my movement is happening all the time and coming out of the pandemict, the force is identified as the fundamental deep drivers of human mobility
and migration whether a change, a big one that doesn't stop just because of pandemic lockdowns or conflict, look at syria and afghanistan and refugee and jumping through technology, people are moving all the time, i bet you and i and everyone in this call knows one or two handfuls of people who no longer live where they used to because they can now be digital nomads but what we should do is differentiate between situations or trends that apply to hundreds of people, thousands of people, millions and billions of people and the larger the decimal outward, the more i'm confident in the thesis, precisely because of the deeper trends around labor shortages in these countries and because of climate change so i would ask anyone to
post their questions back to you or anyone else, tell me you think in light of climate change and labor imbalances that borders will shut forever and migration has ended. tell me about that and we can debate that. >> let's jump onto that and get into what you are arguing, the basis for your argument. you do make a powerful pace that climate change will drive migration mostly to the north and inland. you also make the case that contrary to population expansion particularly in the covid era were we are witnessing population collapse in many countries and that will create a labor shortage. on the other hand you describe the many ways in which we can connect up in this digital
world, people are going to be able to find easier ways to create virtual communities so maybe they don't need to physically move as much, can you sort that out for us and how that will play out? >> those are two simultaneous trends involving mobility, we briefly touched on to say i've spent my entire day in the multi- verse, i put on headset mark zuckerberg sold me, why does it matter where i am? i just need tori be nourished ad electricity but you want to live in a place that has stable electricity supply and where you are not going to have food shortages and that's why people are moving so it entails people moving. in the midst of the pandemic, the reasons that relate to taxation in the digital economy,
people are moving all the time setting up their businesses in dubai or whatever the case may be, people are moving precisely for this reason, regulation or crypto currency on the news every day and people physically move to be in it jurisdiction that allows them to participate in the economy so a high net worth digital innovators are physically moving on the back of his technology so physical migration is involved and then indeed where countries are creating sandboxes saying live here because our regulations are going to be different around drone operations and this sort of thing, people are moving for that whether it new zealand or other countries. that's always going on. because people are not numerically significant
economically very significant, investor migrants dedicated space in the book to examine income because they tend tohe be indicators of where others will go and it can be domestic as well as international self the flight from san francisco to miami is again digital mobility and arbitrage despite being for people. miami is a direct net beneficiary of the higher cost of living and political and they say how can i help? people flocked there and their population is gone. on the stuff declining population, this is one of the most important points of departure of the book, both doctor lee and normatively, the world is notor going to be overpopulated planet of 15 billion people, nothing of the
sort. i follow the demographic, i know you have for 20 plus years and in the 90s, you and i both remember there were predictions the world population would reach 15 billing people. right now we can say we are lucky to reach nine billing people. like i highly highly doubt we will reach nine billing soe. we were off by quite a lot, more than a rounding error and that's just 20 years because demographic forecasters miss everything around women's rights, economic security, housing shortages, the pandemic, you name it.cu so the way i frame the whole thing is okay look, we have this planet and on this planet we have 150 million square kilometers of terrain, 100 million is habitable and at most, nine billing people, all else would fit inside washington d.c. if we were standing inside
side-by-side. we do have population explosion problem, some parts of the world do like india but we have distribution problem, that's really what this is to me and accounting for all of the political obstacles but is it more logistically feasible toy achieve a more fair distribution of the world population? he asked. in terms of shortages, we reach this peak humanity, the phrase that i have coined and used throughout the book, we've reached, peak humanity in europ, america, canada, we are already past week humanity, the fact that the african population and indian population is growing is not material to the fact that there are shortages of nurses and elderly caregivers in our nursing homes in america. it's already here, we are peak humanity, our population would not grow we were in not doing this. why do we need more people?
tell that to the elderly people who died during covid in nursing homes because there weren't enough caregivers, there wasn't enough oxygen either but all of the logistics and physical human work, the services required to get from a to b and physically care for elderly people, right now in britain, there's a shortageri of 100,000. in england right now, a wealthy sophisticated country they are saying sorry, guys. no turkey, no bacon and no gas to heat your food at christmas and that's not because i don't have enough robots doing the work for them, it's because they have a stupid immigration policy and they are paying the price for so i'm ready to embrace the digital world, bring it on but it's not here yet. >> you are saying there is no
global migration policy and that is true and i don't think many people have pointed that out. for possible scenarios, three of them are extremely good. one you called northern lights when all of these policies might be more p adopted more wisely, talk about that a little bit, what would happen if we don't adopt these policies and scenarios going into northern lights. >> this scenario is helpful, not with any certitude what exactly will happen, the book is structured on these scenarios and they are quite grim and negative. the scenario more or less resembles the present. we focus on regional domain,
migration is regional, we are providing, investing in our own sustainability and renewable energy, providing some technology to others, saying here is technology but don't come with people, status quo and it's a climate neutral scenario and ignores labor shortages so not necessarily good for us to be doing this but it could persist for a while. the barbadian advocates america, our client mitigation strategies are not working, diplomatically nor technologically nor in the markets, policies are failing. everyone is fending for themselves, food supply chains are breaking down, droughts are cutting off, distribution and production, we are becoming survivor list and on survivors again. this is true summer in the world right now they are in the world right now when this is
shappening. it's the new middle age plus the internationalization of migrants in an uncontrolled way. welcome to the mediterranean sea, this is happening right now. resources, that is the third scenario. there's only one positive scenario and the book sohe i'm t a hopelessly naïve utopian optimist. we have to thread the needle, i think that's the phrase i use, we have to forthrightly in ways we are not actually capable of doing other than walking time to reopen the world to migration in this premeditated gradual sustainable way in which human beings, billions of them recirculate from devastated unproductive regions into places where they can be gainfully employed and hopefully
assimilated so it's a vision, not a pipe dream, it's meant to be a vision. it is a happen? yes, it's called canada. welcome to canada. 400,000 migrants every single year, 1% of the population, 400,000 have never stepped foot on north american soil more or less arrived in canada every single year. a number of them just came from the u.s. and a growing number that i talk about in the book. his possible? absolutely but it's going to be an uphill battle. >> let's talk about the politics of this because i think countries, maybe those countries that failed to take t on this agenda in the u.s. might be a loser and you go into some detail, a country that flourishes because of its immigration policies and being a
nation of immigrants now going in the opposite direction. the infrastructure bill debated on capitol hill right now, joe biden is not donald trump and yet he sold the bill in a trump way, the saving grace for americans, a way to w bring back the american middle class. no one is talking about immigrants. immigration policy almost as retrograde. how do you turn it around? build infrastructure in this country, how do we change the politics here in the united states? >> i think we have to separate and bring together infrastructure and immigration because there is proposed reforms around trump's draconian immigration policies that are
broader than the current emergency level continuity around what's happening at the southern border. trying to manage the flow this incentivize and dissuade people on crashing the border because they already have so i don't have total sympathy has been handled but you can understand you don't get to start a new and there's millions of people lining up and waiting to come into the country. that said, that would be discounting and ignoring what biden is trying to do around extendingg, allowing thousands o work which would draw in more skilled migrants into the u.s. because they can be two income households off the back. this matters massively. what i described, maybe one of these technical roman numeral three, two, b -- four line items in legislation, it is seismic
stuff, telling the whole world if you have y brains and you hae brains and skills, come to america. that's what the biden administration is insane and you know what a big deal that is and means for future demographics, immigrant to america myself when i was a kid, my parents came and we became citizens when i was 15 and it's like indians dominate this and they are expanding it. i would say it's like immigration, it really does carry on and think about also climate refugees, the devastation puerto rico, haiti, actually hundreds and thousands of people from the caribbean and latin america and the u.s. just on that basis and they never go back either so you continue to be mass migration, people coming
from all directions no matter what. the biden administration authorized return to record numbers of visas for chinese students, so chinese are coming as well and numbers a lot of them also say so then there is canada and flows of skilled f labor so it defies political short-term and that's a good thing. it's like supply and demand are playing out in the world of trouble labor markets if we let them do so even more. then infrastructure. sure, you want to spend $1 trillion? find me enough americans with the skills that you need to build up the speed you want to. the answer is, there aren't enough. if you look at britain right now, they are paying truck
drivers $100,000 in british people still don't get off the couch to do it. most people have this misperception that there is this competition for jobs in the labor market between indigenous or local and foreign labor and it drags on wages across the economy. >> let's talk about how it gets done a little bit more, is it just going to be a jostle between those countries but get those who don't? can we show surprisingly japan, his own collapsing population turning out to be more like these countries? is there going to be any way of achieving this on a global basis? you talk about cosmopolitan to utilitarian, were to achieve the
greatest numbers in terms of getting them tohi the right plas but who accomplishes back? there's no global body now in his existence of governance of any kind to achieve that, how does that get done? >> one thing i want to articulate here as harshly as anyone who would criticize this ideal is that we will never ever ever have a global migration accord. we will have international agreements how to settle and colonize the moon but for governments of thena world that have a compact where people of the world can circulate freely, you know not using walkie political science terms but the one that remains is sovereignty,
a world where government cannot control the flow of cyber hacks and drugs that cross the borders and pollution promote the one the weakesten for states in the world is the attempt to control your borders against the movement of human need. it's the one thing, i'm a political geographyar by traini, more borders than we've ever had in history. i said it. no one else has to say it. will never have this but to go to what you previously said, there's a divide in the world, one is between those who get into those who don't. there countries who say we a bilateral basis will recruit these people and those people and these people and multilateral will take its course and we will follow along in fact canada. we need people and we are going
to start recruiting onrt that ad take them everywhere, skilled people and a humanitarian system refugees and we are going to keep on going and they are not the only ones. the german government had put out a paper saying 400,000 people a year. in the 1990s, i was the only bronchi in a significant radius and today if you told the party of the mpd, the neo-nazi party of the 90s,, i steered clear of them, if you were to child me or any german politician 25 years ago, a long time ago, almost 30 years ago, what am i saying? i'm getting old. thirty years ago if you told post-cold war, stonewall same 30 years from now you will have 1
million africans in your country, he will have a couple million arabs, 6 million turks, they might believe you on the turks, 500,000 chinese and 100,000 is nguyen's circulating freely and germany, many speaking german from integrating into your economy, not everything is going to go smooth and peacefully, you will have some bumps in your politics and cultural adoption, but this is your demographic in 2021, every single german, all 80 million of them, they may have overestimated their population but they would have laughed in your face. today the only country in europe with a growing labor force and role model for industrial activity so germany gets it and easier important today than it
was five or six years ago and brexit. it used to be you had to show proof of employment and pay a security bond, you could be an indian kid and g if you graduatd college, upload your certificate and you are allowed into the uk so things are changing, and japan, 3 million foreigners are living in japan which is highest number in history so there's a lot of countries waking up to this, it doesn't make them cosmopolitans or means they have embraced this and hold everyone to be equal but here is one thing that's important. how's it going to work? at a very technical level, a lot of countries areic saying all or nothing, you're either a citizen or not is not good enough. this is happening right now, it's like what smart countries do. if you look at our policies, it's like of about soup, you have 85 permutations of how to
come into america. other countries it's like okay, level one, level two, level three here's how you do it and apply, here's your rights and obligations, here's how you move between tears and x amount of time. welcome to every other country in the world almost except america so it's totally happening because countries are pe g they need these people. >> do you think if we don't get our act together here in the united states with immigration, we are not just going to be outpaced by other countries but what you describe inco the books digital way where other countries who dor have these policies join together, technologiesog and ideas are shared, supply chains are restored to working condition,
is that a possibility? >> i don't really worry about that, contrary to some people, not even remotely a decline is, i'm originalist, continental list when you study geography, it's the way you are trained to think and that fact is north america will be fine from of north america is the only truly peaceful stable continent on the planet so i don't worry at all about the future of north america in general and even america. i worry a little bit about politics but the fact is the u.s. is an incredibly attractive destination and even with climate change punishing parts of theav u.s. more than it does europe for example, we can recirculate in america's a lot in europe and canada is bigger than both america ands europe o other than a couple of areas
where supply chains are -- pretty much everything from abroad can be substituted in america and almost no other country could say that with a straight face so it can be done with industrial policy and the u.s. can do better and you can draw on remote talent, look how wall street kept on humming during the lockdown, not only because they pivoted to remote work quickly but they massively hire more indians so you think about your financial institutions and consulting companies and digital companies, tech consulting and finance, essentially tech and finance, these big sectors of our economy, why are they going away? they've already drawn on a completely massive labor force of intelligent people serving american corporate interest in some ways recirculate and trickle into our economy so i'm not worried but with that said,
you don't want to not be the number one destination in the world for talent. they are learning towards canada inor britain or other european countries, even asian countries, new zealand, australia and soo forth. >> should be shown, distribution of the best and brightest is not evil, it's natural. it's a sign more parts of the world are livable politically and buyable commercially and economic, something to celebrate quite frankly. >> americans may be surprised, prperhaps part of the problem is immigration, not immigration. >> people are looking at that, i wouldn't have come upon that myself frankly but it's interesting to see the number and i document this myself, it
double since the mid to thousands. >> before we go to questions, sketch out as much detail as you can briefly as you can, your vision of 3.0. i think you project 22050, a big feature is this idea that particularly in an era of climate change moving north and inward, you go into great detail across the globe in terms of russia and siberia and across the far east, just to talk about that a little bit and how that will look asor migration takes place. >> the principle of civilization can apply anywhere in the world, not just from mobility and sustainability which is to say sumore people are coastal to inland, and so forth but as we
move from of the great lakes region, as more people move back to the great lakes, it's been depopulation but it will gain because of climate resilience but we should not be polluting or having mass migration into ecologically frail but habitable area and trembling at the way that we have so much of the planet so we have to do mobility with sustainability, i talk about how future housing or cities or settlements need to be circular collect rainwater and channel hydroponic agriculture, wind and solar power and switchable battery packs and all of this, even these cities that have looked at in investments 3d printable movable housing, you can actually have millions of people living in low
footprint, even mobile kinds of settlements not just because we want to go back to the days of our ancestors butda because sustainable and easier way to live in a high tech way so bottom line, civilization 3.0 is a global concept we should all try toou follow and have as many billings of people as often as possible. >> talk a little bit about some of the countries that might have advantage here for example russia. an economy that has all of this land. >> russia andd canada share latitude but are very polar opposite immigration policies but what i reported on for the book in my travels across russia, when you're outside of the kremlin in aid way from the vitriol and nationalism of
putin, you hear a different story. as soon as you go east, which is most of russia, i talked to chiefs and governors and mayors and so forth and they say we need more migrants, who got this chinese investment, we need to dealt railways and highways and eeconvert old factories and make them productive again. we've got all of this agriculture, we don't have enough farmers. we are universities that russians are dying so we need students, we should start teaching in english, this is the stuff never seen reported out of russia but it's exactly what the russians physically from the territory known as russia tell me and are doing all the time so the future of russia demographically, economically, it really does look different than today's russia.
>> ten see if we can go to some questions from thequ audience. one question is from darcy, what will be the role of the transportation industry, particularly air transportation and civil military in the scenarios you layout? >> this is part of the infrastructure questions that's interesting, one thing we are not doing when we think about infrastructure spending, start with the firstst principles of e deeper trends so the fact is that climate change is rendering certain geographies unlivable or at least not physically responsibly livable. the carolinas or whatever the question may be or whatever the location may be that we are still throwing money at these
places. instead, you start with the irrevocable realities of climate changege, one of the most livable.of america that will remain livable? how to be incentivized people to move there? which is what the army corps of engineers and fema and hud warrantless holy alliance if you will of federal agencies saying no more rebuilding in the areas that are getting destroyed every yearro and domain on those locations. here's your location grant, spend in michigan, not in louisiana so we are moving in that direction right now, doing technocratic things you wouldn't normally ascribe to the u.s. thernment which i think is right thing to do so you talk about climate, migration and now infrastructure and transportation and otherwise which is to saye okay, if we nw know where we are directing people into livable geographies more stable, that's where we
should spend on infrastructure and focus on improving roads and highways and bridges and affordable housing, water infrastructure, agricultural and so on and so on, that's a logical sequence by which you determine where and how to spend trillions and trillions of dollars. not what's happening right now. it's interesting as well my study after study out of the pentagon says bases are in the wrong places spending millions repairing, refurbishing basis where they are rather than climate resilient areas so all kinds of infrastructure transportation, first and foremost our vital to maintaining civic civil unity of a society and i've dedicated a whole previous book on infrastructure that we do it in
a logical way because if you don't have infrastructure, united states at some level. >> let's go to another question here, in the recent past we've heard similar rhetoric about globalization and so forth but none of thesevi promises have bn completely delivered in part because of regulatory architecture built on different technologies. what can we do different now to harness what you talk about through mobility? in other words, i think the focus on how we change regulatory policies. >> this is another area where you will not have a collective
global action immediately, we see our views from our digital regulation versus europe versus america. as aun shorthanded effort in america, companies on the data in europe and people on the data and china government owns the data, it's quite a bit of thousand depending on where you are but i worry less about the digital divide and it's another area where if you go back to the 90s, was when the term came of age but if we were in the 90s where people imagine africa would be a leader in honey crypto e-wallet and asians, super apps on asian bones, to say their access to everything from a communication from a financial services, social media and e-commerce would be far superior any western country, like far superior.
that's not something you would have heard in the 1990s but it's all factually true so i think my general rule, not having enough is a bigger problem. not spreading digital technology or digitalization is a bigger problem than the digital divide and so on so i'd like to continue to invest in these areas and we will kick off the processes. does that mean harmonization around digital regulation? no but we also tend to paint this negative linear picture around the new tech cold war which is not really, we don't actually live in a world that that line of reasoning presupposes which is to say there's only two choices in the global marketplace for technology, not troop and you have to choose between chinese and american model for all technologies.
not fll troop. the practice that monopolies to the extent they exist have been allowed to occur simply because of the cost advantages in certain assumptions but that could also change so while we had a certain 30s% of the market and now 20% because of the u.s. and western economies and japan came up and it not, let's encourage countries to diversify their partnerships and even chinese companies are saying and telling their own leadership wait a minute, when you force us to identify too much with the chinese state, we lose business opportunities abroad and therefore we can't become influential global companies anymore so you'veeit t to turn this down so there is nonlinearity to all of us that tends to not be acknowledged when we pause on technology. >> let me follow up on that previous question by taking you back to your t book written
pre-pandemic, in many ways you anticipated the kind of world we are dealing with now, where we have plunged into this role of virtual technology including today's session about your book which normally would have been a pleasant chat among others at the bookstore. now i'm speaking tobv you from washington and you are in singapore i believe. you also talk about a previous book, supply chain disruptions, we do have a supportive supply-chain war going on and debate about that. talk about the ways in which you anticipated where we are today or maybe you didn't anticipate
we are today. >> there are two areas. one is the infrastructure, the geography of supply chains and competition to be either the central mode of production or control of technological innovation. so trying to be the sole producer of hunting and doctors or whetherem it's oil and the u. is a leader in technology and producerde in energy, it's connected and relevant technology, finance and energy andry vertically, to be the control of innovation and valuel added if there the u.s. is still vital, you have areas like a.i. and manufacturing, tremendous innovation and the rest of the world, a vigorous competition to be the innovator at a vertical
level and create industrial policy and on top of that, we spend trillions a year on this conductivity infrastructure whether it is high-speed railways, if electricity cables now and internet cables are building more cables connecting all the continents, all of promoting conductivity and flow. you can shut down borders all you want but our global economy persists in many ways, one thing i remind people is if you use a land, trade, people tend to think they are better, even they are wrong because they think it's a finished goodin made in indigenous and one country which it's not, it's part of a gray area now. we can't produce enough
semiconductors, basilica, the most abundant element in the earth's crust in that book, finishing and preparing and china to the semiconductor in non- friendly territories like taiwan and korea and as we further distribute semiconductor production out of taiwan to escape the geopolitical scenario of a chinese may meant seizure of taiwan, building plans, arizona in the united states, japan, korea and maybeun eventually korea, we continue to distribute and dissipate production to achieve greater systemic resilience, a fancy way of saying if one place stops something, you can get it from somewhere else and that is the
world we need to build and the more we invest in this, the more we get toward that scenario and we are doing it all the time precisely because of the nature of geopolitics. it's not despite it, it's because of it. china billed these infrastructure for their own national interest to get it from as far as ukraine, ship things of the arctic and to europe. it benefits more than just china, it is dual use if you will so that's what i think is going on. the individual domain, the internet infrastructure and the share of the economy increasingly digital anyway, irrespective of whether or not a shipping container or tanker gets stuck in the canal, it doesn't stop the digital economy and we are not good at measuring digital economy and the financial economy on the same
conductivity and when i lecture students, i say you can stop all physical trade, finance iski trillions, if you really want to understand globalization, at least focus on dollars and bets, not just atoms. follow-up bits and atoms at bare minimum and people are the four pillars if you will, if you want to properly measure all four, he will seek globalization is perfectly alive and well. >> we've properly connected in the last year end a half virtually and what are the limits of back? >> people have blossomed in away for keeping in touch and so forth but my mother misses her grandchildren and hasn't
physically seen them so it would be nice for usl et to get togetr again the way we used toga so obviously that is one dimension of it, you can only compensate in a limited way. of course globalization is not secure for any felony by any stretch of the imagination. conductivity can help some people, let's say your job is analyzing or taking photos or taking photos of google earth and you are living in uganda. you are part of that connected global digital economy and earning a higher wage but your village may be lacking in running water. there are still a lot of things we need to focus on at the local level to be honest, the humanitarian message of the book is simple, what are the principles, if you cannot move people to resources, move technologies to people. it's one sentence in the book but i think it is a fairly simple law.
if you can't't move resources to people, who people to technology. >> the final question for me, talk personally, you travel so much mike you grew up in several places around the world, how did that shape your thinking and idea? how did it turn you into the person you are today? >> i don't take it for granted. it is a big part of who i am, travel is a methodology, not just fun and games. it's how i research and it either reaffirms or contradicts everything i read in research before coming to a place and i think it's helped me disprove or overturnrn contradictions, ill-informed conventional wisdom in a few countries and places so anlike you, you have to substite temporarily when you are in a
lockdown situation but i don't think for mean there will ever e another way of life other than traveling and exploring so i'm lucky my parents raised me that way. i raise my kids that wake, they've been to dozens of countries already but let's be clear on the eve of the pandemic, perhaps a good way to wrap up, the year 2019, i was all alone, 1.5 billion people cross borders in the year 2019, that is an absolute record in human history whether business travel or tourist students, migrant laborers, you name it. then of course it stops to a large degree so i ask you to tell me this one pandemic suddenly means the end of the megatrend and ime do mean mega,
mega, megatrend or 1.5 billion people cross borders and nearly 300 million people were living outside of the country origins. like a few million of those people got back home o indefinitely but ofof course millions of people right now are relocating because i've decided where they want to be when the next pandemic hits and obviously a crucial part of the book gets back to technology, this will be a learning experience, reset and how we do mobility because rather than your passport, physical reporting on who is vaccinated or who is not, this is a greater mobility divide that's widening precisely because africans don't have qr codes to demonstrate their t certification but imagine what
we will have five years from now and i do mean five years, not 15. five years from now every human being will have that qr code saying they are vaccinated and will be putting data on the block chain about your travel history and financial history and education history and criminal history accessible only when needed to government so you can have access to that country and we will digitize mobility because of this pandemic so far from believing it's a linear lockdown, it is the opposite and i know and falling and encouraging companies building that future digital, a pathway tol physical mobility for all f us right now, i'm absolutely certain we will have it within literally five years so that is an optimistic note to end on back, it will be more seamless than before. >> if nothing else, the pandemic and markdowns have reminded so many of us of how desperately we want to get home and get on the move again.
>> you and me both. >> all right. i think that is probably thing and. >> thank you both soo much. i just want to also throw back to the supply chain disruption, speaking of that, your book that's supposed to come out last tuesday is now coming out on the 12th, it has to do with the pandemicf and authors moving their books to the fall and printing issues but thank you both so much for being here, as a fantastic conversation. >> i appreciate it. thank you both. >> thank you, good talking to you. maybe you can give me investment ideas about those countries.
>> sure, why not? let's plan another chat. >> thanks, take care. >> thank you, everyone. ♪♪ >> book tv every sunday on c-span2 features leading authors discussing their latest nonfiction books. noon eastern on in-depth, civil war historian alan joins us live to talk about the intellectual history of the united states. books include the great emancipator, gettysburg and the latest robert e lee, confederate general and civil war. 10:00 p.m. on "afterwards", georgia republican congressman doug collins reflects on the ideas after the first impeachment of former president donald trump. the clock on the counter, a front row look donald trump interviewed by colorado republican congressman mckim. watch tv every sunday on c-span2 and find a full schedule and your program guide or watch online anytime booktv.org.
diary to have an -- it came from the fact that during the civil war passing around books and pictures and this kind of thing because it was cheaper. 1868 he wanted to become a driver but because he was interactive with other men his age -- he became very bothered by this way of life. it was no coincidence he was
able, it was founded in this country in 1852. through the connections made to those guys to include -- [inaudible] he was sent to washington in 1873 and got the law passed that became the comstock law even though it's much more longer and complicated. he was an iconic figure in the sense that he had the classic civil war era biography which was young, religious christian, fought in the war and moved to a large city and became overwhelmed by the amount of
craziness manufacturing of the war. it drove him to become what i call a maniac. >> to watch the rest of this program, visit booktv.org and search for the title of the book. the man who hated women using the search box at the top of the page. ... pandemic on cities . >> good afternoon from west,, good afternoon to the east coast . my name is alicia jean baptiste and i'm president and ceo spur. we had an urban planning organization with offices in san francisco, oakland and san jose this is the first time i've moderated the commonwealth club program and i could not be more excited to be participating in today's program and still aligned with the work that we here in my organization do and a special welcome to all commonwealth club members. so we're here today to