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tv   Campaign 2024 Congressional Redistricting in Florida and Michigan  CSPAN  October 26, 2021 7:08am-7:34am EDT

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>> next, look at congressional redistricting. following the release of the 2020 census data. for states gaining seats beginning with the 2022 has elections and for that are losing seats. dave wasserman, matt dixon of political florida talk about the redistricting process for u.s. house races in florida and michigan beginning with the 2022 cycle. >> currently there are about 334 million people living in the united states according to the 2020 census figure. they are represented in congress
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by two senators from each of the 50 states and 435 members of congress. that 435 number has been set by law since 1929. now with the new census figures out which take into account the population growth in the united states and geographical and demographic all changes as well the every 10 year congressional redistricting will start to get the new districts will be in place for the 2022 major elections.le some states have lost members of congress, new york and pennsylvania lost two of them and some like texas and florida gained new members. to help us delve into those numbers is dave wasserman of the post political report. at mr. wasserman, when you look at the census figures in the redistricting that's ahead, which political party do you see benefiting the most at this point. >> we will have to wait to find
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out. the census showed a country that's getting more diverse, more urban and actually 52% of america's counties lost population between 2010 and 2020 which goes to show rule america is declining relative to america's cities and suburbs and on the surface that's good news for democrats because after all they are the party doing better in cities and suburbs, but the caveat is that the country's politics having change that must -- much in the last 10 years of the added diversity, growth of suburbs haven't necessarily made the country more favorable to democrats. they won the white house by the same popular vote margin that they did in 2012. of the morning important part of this is how lines are drawn from state tomp state and republicans get to draw the maps in 20 states totaling 187 districts
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because state legislatures for the most part are the ones that bear responsibility for this compared to 75 districts in eight states that democrats control so republicans control more than twice as many districts as democrats and there are also 10 states that use independent or bipartisan commission that total 121 districts and six states controlled the split between legislature of one party and the governor of the other so that adds up to 46 districts and then there are six states that only have one district in the upcoming decade and don't need to divide their states into multiple seats. >> six states are gaining members of congress, texas, florida, north carolina, oregon and colorado. seven are losing, new york, pennsylvania, michigan, ohio, illinois and west virginia. when people move out of a state
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like illinois or west virginia, two states that lost population, do they take their politics with them or are they moving out of frustration? >> we increasingly hear of voters who are throwing their hands up at the air at the state becoming too inhospitable to their political beliefs and choosing to move elsewhere. now, it takes a lot of rigorous research to determine the size of that effect on how blue or red a state becomes, but we know that over time as motors either choose to live in places that are politically more comfortable ofor as independent voters begin to lean more and more towards whichever party is dominant because of an echo chamber affect whether it's social media or the predominant feeling in their community. we are seeing more geographic
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polarization. that plays into redistricting in a big way. if the state had in its boundary every precinct that was 50/50, it would be impossible for partisans to gerrymander the state and-- in heavily red or heavily blue districts, but imagine a state that has become heavily polarized between blue urban areas and red rural areas. it's easier than ever to essentially compartmentalize democrats and republicans into districts where the outcomes are preordained so the net effect of redistricting although we can't bect sure which party is going o benefit or whether it could be a wash, the net effect will be we will see fewer competitive districts than. when it comes to drawing maps, which matters more, geography or demographics. >> they are inextricable--
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inextricable-- struck a blade length and in a lot of states what we have seen is the minority has accounted for most of the population growth on a net basis in the last 10 years in the rural districts in many states have lost population are grown slowly and will need to expand into suburban territory. however republicans in a lot of places will try to pack democratic votes into a small number of districts to maximize republican opportunities elsewhere iner democrats in many states are at a geographic disadvantage. an example would be the state of wisconsin where the state is sort of evenly divided but democratic votes are concentrated in overwhelmingly blue cities, madison and milwaukee and as a result even if you draw a map that is fairly compacty and draws a district that is madison, draws a
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district that is milwaukee, other six districts would lean republican by a fair margin so even a partisan map could generate. every-- >> every 10 years since world war ii florida has been a state that has gained congressional seats. had eight in 1940. they currently will have 28 seats. what's happening in florida? >> florida is perhaps republicans biggest opportunity to gerrymander. in florida, back in 2011 republicans got to draw the map, but they were somewhat constrained by this new states constitutional amendment called fair districts florida which was passed by voters in 2010 to try to curb gerrymandering. republicans had their maps overturned by courts in the middle of the last decade, which
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resulted in democrats gaining a few seats in the orlando area and st. petersburg, but what has happened in the past few years the florida supreme court has taken a hard right turn. there are now six very conservative judges out of the seven on the florida supreme court and republicans speculate that the court will be more lenient in considering what republicans draw this time, so top republicans could take their advantage in the delegation from 1611, which is currently right nowm to perhaps as much as 19 o nine and that would effectively be a 3c game for republicans, and a two-seat loss for democrats. the democrats and the most jeopardy are probably stephanie murthy-- murphy north of orlando and the open charlie crist's seat in the st. petersburg area, but republicans also have to shore up some of their own
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vulnerable incumbents including two new members in the miami area, carlos manis in the 26th26 district and rhea salazar in the 27th district. >> joining us now is that dixon inaba "politico". he is a senior florida reporter for the publication and he is in tallahassee. mr. dixon, florida since world war ii has gone from a congressional seats to 28 and they seem to benefit every redistricting route. >> yeah, youou are correct in te population growth here is once again give anyone a national congressional seat. it's interesting for a lot of the chatter in the cycles florida-- it's been a pretty massive population influx to the sunshine state but it landed with one and they are starting a process down here i'm drawing a congressional state in the state legislature map so we kindd of have some idea of where the new
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congressional seat myco, but very much stay tuned. >>co where is the main populatin growth in florida these days? >> it is a long sword of the i-5 four-door, tampa over to daytona beach, that central strip of the state is really where a vast majority of the population growth here has come to since the last census, almost certainly in the central part of florida where a new congressional seat will go and sort of the best data points on that-- democratic representative from orlando, erin soto, his sea right now currently has 1 million people in it, that's graphically over the roughly 770,00'. >> matt dixon with erin soto's district being overpopulated, who do you see him losing and will a benefit that population growth for republicans or democrats? >> is hard at this point because
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it is so preliminary so early in the process here to see where the districts will go and how they will be cut out. it's a regional populate-- conversation. the orlando area is a snapshot of how florida's population growth has moved in the number of people that have come here, but what will be interesting to watch from the legislative to the congressional level is florida's i-4 area will be we drawn because there's so many people there moving into the 2020 election cycle and it will look drastically different. there's almost certainly going to be a new congressional seat there with the democratic house majority being as slim as it is, where that seacoast certainly almost enough i-4 area will be important for the overall house and national conversation.oi >> so, that said, mr. dixon, who gets to decide how these districts are redrawn?
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>> the florida legislature. in florida there isn't an independent commission or any specific body with redistricting. right now-- later on this week and sorted this week generally, the florida house and florida senate redistricting committees are starting to me and those committees are actually will draw their own house, senate and congressional maps and kind of like how building comes to law, both of those chambers come up with their own ideas and their own mapsey and then they have to figure out how to settle on final maps for the configuration in that process will almost certainly end up in court as almost all redistricting does and then we willnd go from ther, but the process itself starts with florida's elected legislature. >> is the legislature controlled by republicans like the governor's office is right now in a florida? >> it is and florida the legislature has been dominated by republicans for almost three decades now, but the senate is a
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little bit closer, florida senate republicans control, but there is democratic influencese there. democratss have-- in the house it's almost a near super majority for republicans and it's very, very red chamber, but overall from a topline perspective the florida legislature is very republicans. >> does governor desantis have a role in this claim i guess. he will-- he has to sign off on the legislative maps and then a congressional goes to court so he will have a role in some of this, but i will now it that while i'm sure he will chime in and probably have conversations to whatever degree governors do, he is kindd of in the backseat n this one. it's really a process driven by the legislature and almost assuredly will wind up in the courts and ultimately a judge will either approve the maps drawn by the legislature or if the redistricting process last time courts drew some of the maps because there was bound to be some illegal gerrymandering.
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>> what is the timeline for the process? >> that's a good question. the timeline-- the delayed census w or in the weeds census data that map drawers needed to begin the process was delayed due to the pandemic so our timelinet -- the last redistricting process and this was completely differentnt and . there hasn't been public hearings across the state in a show,e a month long show and a month-long effort to draw the maps and solicit public input. we are on a smaller time frame. i suspect as they are starting to meet now, i would suspect by the end of the year by the early next year we will have a better sense of what it will look like, but because this process doesn't and all sort of mirror from a timeline perspective know when i covered 10 years ago they were still some question and certainly don't hold me too these answers. >> well, in that 10 years
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mr. dixon florida's population has grown by about 15% to 21 and a half million people. matt dixon with "politico", we appreciate the update on florida redistricting. >> thanknk you so much. >> dave wasserman, two midwestern states losing members of congress, ohio and michigan. are they similar or did they have unique characteristics? >> ohio and michigan are two of the biggest wild cards in this round of redistricting. ohio has a new reform in place that is pretty complex reform. it says that-- in essence the legislature has to come to some kind of bipartisan agreement over maps in order to pass a map that's valid for 10 years and right now republicans do hold a super majority in the ohio legislature, but the reforms that you have to have a majority of both parties supporting a map for itti to become effective.
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michigan has a new a citizen's commission in place that resembles the one in california, but this is the first go around for michigan commissioners and there's already controversy surrounding the process. republicans believe that at least one of the commissions independent members sympathizes with democrats and supported causes on the left in the past and democrats are concerned the commission has hired an attorney that has worked for republicans in the past and so there is a lot of finger-pointing. commissioners are pretty inexperienced when it comes to drawing political maps and it has a very tight deadline for turning around both legislative and congressional maps pick the main problem in michigan where democrats currently hold seven of the 14 seats and republicans hold seven of the 14 seats is that it's a difficult to untangle these boundaries and
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keep incumbents and districts pick the commission is not going to be incumbency into account very much but democrats problem is they have six and their seven members who all live within a few miles of each other in the detroit area and a lot of these districts will need to expand into mores republican territory since the state is losing a district, so even though you are moving from a map drawn by republicans 10 years ago to a commission drawn map this time it could still be democrats at more risk. >> bridge michigan and joins us from lansing. did michigan lose population i'm about 10 million people live in michigan currently. why is michigan losing a seat? >> thanks for having me today. the reason it is sluggish growth truly michigan saw an increase in population, but not as big as other states and so michigan
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joined the other states in the region that lost a seat. >> where is the population lost in the state and how will that affect the redistricting? >> great question that population has been shifting in the state and we saw the biggest loss in the detroit area. detroit is to be the booming city where most of the people used to live in the state and that is still the case, but it has reduced its number by 300, 400,000 people in the last decade. we have seen a shift from detroit to west michigan where we say grand rapids, kalamazoo and another area may be becoming more hip and more welcoming to those people moving into the state. >> does that favor the republicans with detroit losing population it in western michigan gaining it. >> not necessarily.ea at the end of the day people are
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moving into west michigan going to urban areas and we know when peopleat move to those areas whe they grow they tend to benefit democrats so truly i think it is too soon to say whether republicans or democrats will have a win, but what we see is there are complications from redistricting and wee see the population moving from detroit because detroit is the area where we have seen most of the majority minority districts, districts where the minority population have a significant power electing their candidates of choice and as people leave the area the redistricting commission has now to try to figure out how to maintain or preserve some of those districts despite the loss in population. >> so it's a redistricting panel that will be doing the heavy lifting and michigan? >> that's right. michigan panel, the first time we do it this way so since 2018
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the legislature in michigan was the one in charge of drawing the political boundaries and it was not a party in power, in this case republicans who drew the lines and it led to some of the most gerrymandered districts in the country and also gave republicans a significant advantage in the state legislature, the congressional district. in 2018 michigan voters overwhelmingly supported a constitutional amendment that created these independent panels made up of four republicans, for democrats and five independents and they have never drawn maps before, but they are the ones doing it this time around and the idea is that they will draw fair maps. >> you race something there. is the state legislature also being redistricted in this route? >> the state legislature is being redistricted and that will be interesting because truly right now the advantage in the
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legislature between one party and the other is not significant, not that big, but it is still-- republicans even though the republican party overall receives less statewide votes than the democratic party and so the legislature could significantly change as well. right now the commission is working on house districts and senate districts, congressional districts, but trying to balance the act of making sure they are doing fair maps that aren't giving a party an advantage that is too big like we have seen in the past. >> mr. martin is a beltran, what is the timetable for this commission and then what happens after that. >> the timetable if you asked the commission, you know the commission had a deadline of last month they were supposed to have maps ready for people to see, but the reality is that delays in the census data on those numbers that are used to
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draw the maps have created-- have made the commission to create a timeline so there is a timeline approaching november 25 and the commission is helping to put their final maps or their semi final maps out there for the public. that s they will hold a 45 day period for people to comment on it and then they hope to come back and make some tweaks if they have to and then publish the maps december 30, and then the maps will become available soon after-- they will become the law soon after it. >> the legislature and the governor have no role in saying yay or nay to these maps? >> no roll and that's significant because in other states the legislature might have approval or the governor gives approval, but in michigan, the independent commission is the only one that draws the maps and so they really don't need to hear from the legislature.
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the governor's office, i think it is creating safer space or at least a space that is free of a lot of the influence from the legislature or the executive. >> finally,-- [inaudible] >> rate question p or it's a nonprofit and nonpartisan the alpha. we are trying to go deep on the stories that matter to the people and try to break down issues of importance like redistricting that are not super sexy or interesting, but have an impact on everyday people and we ryare trying to break down so people learn more about it. >> we have been talking with mr. martinez beltran about redistricting in michigan. thank you for your time. >> thank you, peter. >> this morning the fda advisory committee meets to discuss authorizing visors: eighteen vaccine for use in children age five to 11. watch live coverage beginning at 8:30 a.m. eastern on c-span3.
7:32 am or watch full coverage on c-span now, our new video app. wednesday morning attorney general merrick garland testifies at an oversight hearing before the senate judiciary. live coverage begins at 10:00 a.m. eastern on c-span3, or watch full coverage on c-span now on our new video app. >> in an early start on holiday gifts at c-span c-span's online store, shot through wednesday and save up to 15% on our latest collection of products, apparel, books, home decor and accessories there's something for every fan at the holidays and every purchase supports our nonprofit. shop now and use code gift 15 at c-span
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>> facebook whistleblower frances haugen testified before united kingdom parliament about misinformation and extremism on the platform and the hostile effect of the app snapshot owned by facebook and have on children. the uk is considering legislation to impose government regulations on facebook and other social media companies. this is two and a half hours. >> good afternoon and welcome to this session of the joint committee on the draft online safety belt here today we are pleased to welcome frances haugen to give evidence to the committee. francis, we are delighted you made the trip to london and give evidence to a sane person and also respect the personal decision you make taken to speak out on these matters as incumbents are speaking out against a multibillion dollar corporation. i would like to ask first off about some of the specifics facebook uses to describe its performancend


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