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tv   International Monetary Fund Discusses World Economic Outlook  CSPAN  October 12, 2021 1:55pm-2:37pm EDT

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>> now more from the international monetary fund. earlier today the imf released its world economic outlook. the forecast discusses the coronavirus pandemics affect on local economies . this is about 40 minutes. >> thank you for joining the imf world economic outlook. i'm jennifer beckman of the invitation department and i'm joined today by the imf economist. the deputy director of the research department the republics and head of the world economic studies division model on the far . we're going to begin with brief remarks and then wewill turn to your questions .>> thank you all for joining this work league on the world
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economic outlook. the global recovery continues but it's followed by the pandemic. fueled by the highly cranston submersible delta. we call it the global covid-19 death toll has driven close to 9 million and help concerns rebound holding back a full return to normalcy. pandemic outbreaks including global supply chains have resulted in longer than expected supply disruptions feeding and in a quality in many countries. overall these prospects have increased and policy trade-offs have become more complex. compared to our july focus the single projection for this year has been driven down marginally. and is unchanged for 2022. however, this modest headline revision must go downwards for some countries. outlook for low income developed countries has taken
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a turn for the worst under worsening pandemic dynamics. the downgrade also reflects more difficult near-term prospects for the advanced economy group in part due to supply disruptions. now partially upsetting these changes projections for some commodities have been upgraded to the back of commodity prices. pandemic relief in sectors have caused the labor market recovery to significantly lag therecovery in most countries . the danger of divergence of economic prospects across countries remains a major concern. aggregate output for the advanced economy group is expected to regain its pre-pandemic part next year and exceed it by 0.9 percent in 2024. by contrast aggregate output for the emerging markets and developing economies
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excluding china is expected to remain 5.5 percent below pre-pandemic in 2024. resulting in a larger sent back to improvements in their livingstandards . these divergences are a consequence of the great vaccine divide and large disparities. while over 60 percent of the population in advanced economies are fully vaccinated and some are now receiving booster shots, about 96 percent of the population in low income countries remain unvaccinated . furthermore many emerging markets in upcoming economies face greater risk of inflation expectations while redrawing policy support despite larger output. by disruptions pose another policy challenge. on the one hand pandemic outbreaks and climate disruption have resulted in
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shortages of key inputs and lower manufacturing activity in several countries. on the other hand, these supply shortages alongside the pent up demand and rebound in commodity prices have caused consumer price inflation increased rapidly in many countries. food prices have increased the most in low income countries with where food insecurity is more acute lighting adding to the burdens of poor householdsand the risk of social unrest . >> ..
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this would apply to high income countries existing -- coordinate with manufacturers to prioritized callbacks near term and move trade restrictions and vaccines and their input. at the same time, 20 billion-dollar revenue funding for testing saving lives now. looking ahead, vaccine manufacturers and high income countries original production of covid vaccines developing countries for financing and technology. another priority is the need to slow global temperature rise and contain the adverse effects of climate change. this would require ambitious commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and upcoming
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united nations climate change. policy strategy including international -- the country circumstances agree public investment push and compensate targeted funds advanced energy transition in an equitable way. in addition, multilateral efforts to ensure international liquidity for constrained economy and faster implementation of comic framework to restart sustained book that would help limit back into our country. billing on historic 650 billion-dollar allocation, we are calling on countries with strong positions to voluntarily handle the reduction.
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it's exploring establishment of resilience sustainability trust which will provide long-term funding in both countries and sustainable growth. at a national level, it should be calibrated for pandemic economic conditions aiming for next maximum sustainable employment while protecting credibility of the framework. with space being more limited in many countries, after spending should continue to be prioritized while transfers need to be accounted. training and support reallocation. health outcomes improve quality emphasis in increasingly long-term structural goal. with death levels at record highs, it should be rooted in incredible frameworks backed by
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revenue and spending measures. such credibility can lower financial cost across the country. monetary policy would lead to working between inflation and financial risk while supporting economic recovery. we project hi uncertainty headline inflation would likely return to pre-pandemic levels by middle of next year with a group of advanced economy and emerging at developing economy. there is across countries with upside risk in some countries and the rest in some emerging markets developing place countries. monetary policy can generally look through increases in inflation, central banks should be prepared with risk of rising inflation being more material in
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this uncharted recovery. clear triggers and acting on communication. generally, clarity inconsistent actions to avoid unnecessary policy activist rising in the market setback the overall recovery ranging from the u.s. debt ceiling lift, death restructuring and china's sectors escalating trade and technology. recent developments have made it abundantly clear we are in this together and the pandemic is not open over anywhere until it's over everywhere. if covid, is a impact into the medium term and good review gdp by $5.3 trillion over the next five years relative to current projections. it does not have to be this way.
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global community must step up efforts to ensure vaccine access from every country, overcome vaccine hesitancy and secure better economic profit for all. thank you. >> thank you. for reporters watching from there are three ways to submit questions. you can use raise your hand feature or type a note in the chat or you can submit written questions in the ims center to start this morning, we'd like to go to webex and take a question. >> thank you very much for doing this, i have a question on the economy, the report for the chinese economy and i was wondering if you could talk about the reasons it if you
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could share some thoughts on china joining, or that have any impact on the recovery? >> we have a small downgrade for china. we reflect the fact that fiscal tightening was somewhat more than we previously anticipated in one of the main reasons for the downgrade, there are other challenges at this time in terms of this sector in terms of supply chain disruptions in other parts of the world. for your question of joining comprehensive partnerships, we are aware of the application so that could be the partnership for high quality, high standards and practices allowed.
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i believe it would be good for the world to have more countries join such an agreement. >> thank you. for the next question, we'll take it from the press. eric martin from bloomberg. [inaudible] [inaudible question] [inaudible] how does your department intend to make recommendations?
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>> the audio wasn't great -- >> i believe i heard you approximately. it was related -- in terms of data integrity and what additionally needs to be done. i can, i think everybody knows but to remind everybody, it's under consideration doing business report, nothing to do with ims data. in our case, incredibly seriously which is why we have processes in place to make sure data are in line with reviewed carefully by the department and
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including the ims, we are constantly working to ensure higher standards for our data and work and we have ongoing reviews all the time and we will continue to do that. >> thank you. for the next question, david from reuters. >> thank you. just to follow-up on that question in terms of steps, what the treasury asked to do and what the board said it would need to consider, what specifically do you think is required here to ensure this integrity? also related to inflation questions, central bank needs to be prepared to act quickly if
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inflation expectations look like there coming and it looks like it will be more entrenched, what are you going to look at two major that to determine whether or not inflation is more durable than what we think it is now? >> on your first question, the board made clear they had impartiality analytical work so that was a pointed statement. in terms of what additional steps are needed, this is something we will be hearing more about in the coming days and just to be clear, we have a robust system in terms of making
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sure credibility and integrity data. we have independent evaluation and reports we put out on a regular basis and we are always looking for ways to improve, i look forward to seeing what additional steps are mentioned. to your question about inflation and expectations, our view is that at the baseline, we should expect inflation to come back to normal levels by the middle of next year and there are some countries at the end of the year so it is across country. in terms of what we are paying close attention to is what's happening with medium and long-term expectations with
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every data fleet that comes out. we are paying attention to what's happening with wage inflation elevated in the u.s., as we all know. it's concentrated in some sectors so we should see if it becomes more and i'd be interested to see what happening with shelter inflation from the run up in housing prices so all of these would be flagged to be paying close attention. >> thank you, we are going to take one more question from webex and then we will turn to some questions submitted online. rafael has a question. >> thanks. i have questions regarding inflation. latin america wants projection on price with the highest amount in the world. i was hoping you could talk
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about the risks for that forecast, particularly in the case of martina uc inflation that might create additional problems. >> thank you. it's important to highlight the fact that while we are talking about inflation, it is across the region and america is one reason region we've seen it go up more widely. latin america and other parts of the world are being affected by global shock with increase in commodity prices supply chain and crossing surprised. there is variation across countries in terms of domestic demand inflation happening so consistent with what i said previously across countries to
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tailor their monetary policy actions to countries specific circumstances. the specific question of argentina, we see argentina's inflation continues to be an anchor but also because of increased reliance and monetary and argentina so that is the current picture right now. we continue to work closely on technical levels with the argentine government coming up with solutions and just sustainable growth. >> thank you. i am turning now to simon from today's news africa. he asked, can you talk broadly how africa's economic recovery will be affected by the pandemic
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with vaccines and lack of vaccines? >> africa has gone through a tough time with this crisis. what is unfortunately unique about africa is the levels of vaccination. we are looking at less than 4% of the population having been vaccinated. we are looking at economies at 60% so if you look at different parts of the world, i think the region where there is a fixed amount, limited access to vaccination and that is a big concern we have. we note the pandemic is not over, this is why we are pressing hard to get it by the end of this year and this will require countries deliver on their vaccines and also
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manufacturers prioritize, pack combination will help vaccines so that is an important issue that needs to be addressed as a whole. in terms of other factors, high levels of death, many countries and international community place an important role and restructure the debt but also providing additional finance $350 billion in additional financing to make sure they are able to achieve and develop in the next five years and that requires immediate attention. >> on a question submitted
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online, why are they forecasting gdp 1.5% this year and 2.1% in 2026? >> in the case of brazil, the effects we expect from the rising increase in monetary policy given inflation in frizzell and division for the u.s. so that combination done great and let me bring in something more. >> we did have an upgrade so mostly important to keep in mind looking at those numbers so near
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term a very modest downgrade. higher commodity prices and the return of activities. >> i'm going to take two questions on a just submitted on the press center before the webex first from india one of the outside wrists at 1.5 and 8.542022 and 2023x is the government fiscal major concern and cannot afford to spend more? >> we don't have a change for india. india came out very tough second
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wave and that downgrade in july but as of now, there are many challenges in the economy and the financial market in regard to the fact that viruses are gone yet. let me bring it somebody else. >> in terms of the second part of the question on the fiscal deficit, we think there is room to provide support needed provided in a targeted manner. going forward, it's important to put in place a credible strategy meet those needs.
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>> thank you. another question on asia, the times, according to the current real grind by 3.2% this year's theme 6.3% in 2022, is there a reason for the outlook? >> philippines is another nation affected by the second wave but at the same time they have had additional robust but in terms of recovery, would you like to add anything more? >> philippines coming out, recovery is on the way to grow 2.2%. we have treated because the pandemic and we are to expect
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shallower recovery in the second half because of renewed concerns and the pandemic. going forward, the continue vaccine rollout, they should support a continued economy project growth of 6% in 2022 supported by improvements. >> thank you. returning to webex, could you come in? can you open your mike? we can't see or hear you.
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>> can you hear me now? >> i had a question so to what extent are you worried about increasing inflation and economies like u.s. longer than expected supply disruption? in august you want you cannot afford first. [two bells tolling] picture, what is your observation? monetary policy as a result of rising inflation? >> inflation is one of the risks we leg in this report. we seen this in many countries but i want to highlight this is not uniform worldwide phenomena.
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specific concerns, therapist are there. if recovery what happens, business up pandemic driven crisis and recovery from back. we are seeing our demand effects lasted a long time because the pandemic has also lasted a long time. while we have seen this for months, supply has not been able to rebound as fast. the combination has led to high levels of inflation. we've seen prices and with supply chain breakdowns so with this persisting into next year but over time we expect this will iron out and we should expect inflation coming back to a more normal ranges.
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there is tremendous uncertainty, we've never seen a recovery of its kind where you have shortages of the labor market at the same time of unemployment. you have ports not able to offload container ships so this is unique and we have vigilance to make sure these supply sites don't end up with expectations creating this because that would be more inflation and policy responses. >> thank you. the next question we would like to turn to from deb x joining us in webex. >> i want to ask about allocation and if you put tell us how you see these being used. we see a lot of effort and
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allocation. are you seeing this used, meaning your goals and what is the timeline on re- channeling drink on what's happening with that? >> the $650 billion allocation in terms of its size at a time when countries need additional liquidity that they can get, additional reserves that it provides because we are living in very uncertain times so having that buffer will be very helpful for countries. as you know, they're given to countries to use as they wish countries are using it for health, you have to remember
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what it does is provides you with additional buffers to prevent a rainy day. countries are using it in different forms to help them deal with the crisis. it also improves the standing because of the additional things they have on the markets questie going to return to the online press center. the first one -- several recent analyst commentaries have slight stagnation concerns and parts of europe including germany and uk. a site altering economic growth,
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a rise in energy prices. how valid is this? >> looking at projections for this year's global growth, 5.9% coming down to 4.9% next year. your area we have growth at 5% this year end 4.3% next year so this is nowhere near vaccination in terms of this focus. i think the risks are seeing more supply side as opposed to demand-side shock. commodity prices and the pandemic but also related events and they contribute to shortages because of that, their lessons
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we have seen that showing up in countries like germany downgrade because of that. i supply disruption in the other hand, higher prices. this complicates policy making because as opposed to inflation, monetary policy, this is not something like stagflation. >> for the next question, will turn to barry would hong kong, how might global work from home movement resulting pandemic affect output? >> let me mention when it comes
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to what we are seeing is weaker recovery and look at projections and connects fear and pre-pandemic levels, still in terms of employment so this has been it is because of the conflation and the sector because it's an important era, we are seeing workers having long-term employment. work from home provides flexibility for certain kinds of workers really do remote working, it's beneficial in terms of those not being able to commit to work.
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being able to manage but we are seeing that translate into returning as quickly back to the labor force and childcare issues about whether they opened or not so flexibility and health from certain kinds of firms with their workers and additional piece about interaction and ideas about this. make sure they can remain productive. >> another question submitted online, do you see risks in recovery in case congress approves limit of private
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companies in the energy sector? >> the economy is recovering but we are seeing those so that's a good sign that recovery is much more. your specific question, we have seen rolling back of his energy sector reform and that increases most which then can inhibit so when it comes to energy provision we should be able to do this as affordability when it comes to the environment and makes it available.
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>> we are quickly running out of time so, we do have enough time to turn back to webex. >> can you hear me okay? >> we hear you. >> thank you for taking my question. my question is related to the u.s. globally. training, or tooth think about -- [inaudible] >> i would say highly
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productive, you have the situation in respect to the u.s. debt ceiling and we happen a longer term solution to that and it can be done by replacing medium-term physical target as opposed to the debt ceiling or automatically raising to be in line what it is with the preparation congress has approved but these recurrences are not helpful in terms of ensuring uncertainty so this is something that should be reformed. >> thank you. that's all we have time for this morning for this press
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conference for the world economic outlook. thank you for joining us and thank you for your questions. >> tonight air today's supreme court oral argument for the abortion law real estate attorney general speaking to uphold banning certain procedures struck down by federal court 8:00 p.m. eastern on c-span2. veterans by domestic extremist groups, veterans targeted for recruitment and academics stunning issues among others. veterans affairs committee 10:00 a.m. eastern on c-span2. online@c-span.org or new video app c-span now. ♪♪
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>> john, special inspector general for afghanistan reconstruction testified on how u.s. funding assistance was used in afghanistan during the 20 year war. he said he believed there were more failures and success stories in the country and would look into reports former afghan president led the country with millions of dollars as the government fell to the taliban. >> the subcommittee on international development and global corporate social impact will come to order. good morning, thank you will good afternoon. thank you to the witnesses for

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