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tv   Inside Politics With Abby Phillip  CNN  August 7, 2022 5:00am-6:00am PDT

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democrats on the cusp of their biggest win of the biden era. >> it will reduce inflation. it will lower prescription drug costs it will fight climate change and make america a much better place. >> as biden celebrates one of the best stretches of his presidency, are he and his party poised for an electoral comeback? another red state bans nearly all abortions. >> the policy in the state of indiana is to support life, the unborn children who cannot speak for themselves. >> a referendum in kansas may signal a backlash over roe. >> the threat an abortion is no
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longer theoretical. >> pro trump election deniers will top the gop ticket in at least three key states this november. >> this is truly a battle between those who want to save america and those who want to destroy her. >> what happens if they're in charge of the ballot box in 2024? >> they don't believe in democracy. they don't believe in our election system. it is very dangerous. >> "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. welcome to "inside politics sunday."" i'm abby phillip. we'll take you inside the senate floor. you're looking at live pictures where senators have been at it all night. they are debating the democrats' $740 billion bill.
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manu raju is joining us now. what's going on on the senate floor? a little party for some of these senators, right? >> reporter: they've been going since 11:30 p.m. eastern time last night. there are hours more of amendment votes ahead. no way to estimate exactly what time this will end. under the rules of the senate, senators can offer a limitless number of amendments because of the process that democrats are employing to pass this bill. because they're using the budget process, essentially it allows a republican or democrat to offer any amendment they want. you need 100 senators to agree to one amendment vote. not now, which is why it's really uncertain when this will come together. what's certain so far is democrats have been sticking together, defending off republican efforts to amend the bill. actually right mao the democrats are going to push back against one of their own, senator bernie sanders has an amendment on the floor right now to extend the
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child tax credit and raise the corporate tax rate which most democrats agree with, but they're concerned that if you amend this bill, it will undercut their efforts to pass this along straight party lines later today and also into the house next week. republicans have been focusing on other issues to try to put democrats on the spot. one of the big arguments republicans have been making is about the increase in irs enforcement, adding more irs agents to help pay for this bill. one of the senators, marco issue, but democrats pushed back. >> this is what i love. going after people who aren't paying enough in their taxes whochlt do you think the agents are going to go after? fighting the corporations ain't easy. they're going to go after small businesses. they're going to go after working people. >> -- impactful bills congress
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has seen in decades, for families struggling to pay the bills, for seniors struggling to pay for medication, for kids struggling with asthma. this bill is for them. >> reporter: now, increased irs enforcement would pay for it in some way by adding $124 billion back to the treasury. they'll raise the corporate minimum tax to 15%. they'll also add a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. all this to pay for the plans, extend health care subsidies for three years, to pay for hundreds of billions in new climate change and energy programs. for the first time, medicare will have the power to negotiate drug prices under this legislation, assuming democrats can keep their folks in line, unite and get this bill out of the senate which is expected later today and then on to the house where democrats have a narrow majority, but still expect to keep their caucus mostly in line, sending this
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bill to joe biden's desk after more than a year of internal democratic wrangling. >> manu, we know a lot of these, maybe all of these amendments are expected to fail. are there other changes that could be coming down the pike? >> reporter: there's one that actually could succeed. that's the efforts by republicans to strike out from this legislation, to eliminate the cap on insulin. democrats want to add a $35 cap both in the private marketplace and through medicare. the senate parliamentarian has ruled the efforts to cap the private marketplace for $35 for insulin actually would violate senate budget rules. nevertheless, democrats still included this in the bill, essentially daring republicans to try to strip this out. i talked to senator john thune, the number two republican, who said they do plan to strike it out because it violates the senate budget rules. democrats are almost goading them to do this because they want to go after republicans for
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stripping out this cap on insulin which would be popular among folks who certainly need this medication. nevertheless, a lot of these folks, abby, meant to put the other side on the defensive. republicans putting them on the defensive on immigration, the irs issue, energy issue, hoping to take this to voters in the polls. when this passes, both sides are going to make the argument about why it is good for them, why it is bad for them and the voters will have to decide. >> manu raju, hardest working man on capitol hill right now, we'll get back to you later. senate passage will cap what has been an extraordinary week for president biden. overseas, the leader of al qaeda killed by u.s. fired missiles. at home strong economic news with the unkplamt rate matching the lowest it's been in 50-plus years. president biden left the white house this morning for the first time in 18 days where he's been in quarantine from covid. he's heading to his beach house in delaware and told reporters
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he feels good. let's discuss it with molly ball, kaitlan collins, harry enten and marianne levine. marianne, this is not the bill democrats thought they were going to go, that they wanted. yet, i can't emphasize how optimistic democrats sound. it's probably as optimistic as you've heard them in a year and a half. >> democrats are ecstatic. two to three weeks ago we didn't think this bill was going to come to fruition. it was looking like at that point that democrats were going to get a narrower health care package that senator joe manchin was going to approve. i think the fact that the expectations were lowered so much by the assumption that they were going to get a narrower bill, only made this what they see as a pretty big victory for them and only made the passage that much of a bigger deal.
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>> i say democrats because the one senator who is expected to probably vote for this bill but also is so unhappy right now on the senate floor is senator bernie sanders who is, of course, an independent. take a listen to what he's been saying. >> it's important to understand that real weekly wages for the average american are worker are lower today than they were 49 years ago, and clearly the inflation of today is pushing the average person even further behind. this legislation does not address any of their needs. >> meanwhile, republicans are like, yeah, what he's saying. it was bernie sanders. but still, he's offered all these amendments. they're going to fail. but this is probably go forward. >> it will. as marianne was saying, there's
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been a vibe shift in favor of the democrats. in so many ways this bill they feel like fell out of the sky thanks to joe manchin suddenly reversing himself. it feels like this thing they didn't expect. then you have gas prices coming down, the economic news you mentioned, the foreign policy news you mentioned, just after at least a year where it seemed like they just could not catch a break, even on stuff that they sort of had nothing to do with. the kansas vote, the good political news, where a few weeks ago the democrats were so depressed about roe v. wade being overturned and the inaction on climate, it seems like we're in a completely different world. bernie sanders complaining about this on the floor of the senate arg arguably shows credibility on the rule. joe manchin tore pee code the democrats in the last year. if you're a democrat in a red state, you want bernie sanders
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saying this is a terrible bill. it falls short of the $6 trillion. it helps you make the case to moderate voters. >> also, you see the delicate nature of this. a lot of amendments he's putting forward, democrats support. a lot of them, we're not going to vote yes because they don't want to upset the balance here. it shows how striking it is, what democrats wanted and talked about a year ago to what they're accepting now. even in the name in and of itself and how they rebranded this to build back better, now called the inflation reduction act. that's the work of senator joe manchin. it speaks to how democrats have adjusted their goals to reality and what they're seeing. this bill is transformative when it comes to climate change and what not. it's very different from what they wanted a year ago. that's what senator sanders is complaining about. there's not the child care, the elderly care, all the other efforts to rewrite the social contract that initially saw it. though you can see, given how enthusiastic democrats are about this, how much their goals
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basically have changed. >> i think they're watching the clock running out. the end of the legislative session, the end of this congress, the midterms less than a month away. it's either now or never. i would make the argument, molly, that democrats were quite enthused by what happened given the overturning of roe. we've got to get off our behind here because if we don't, we'll get nothing done. we've seen that in the polling where all of a sudden you've seen the democrats climbing back from the generic congressional ballot. the vote in kansas shows democrats are quite enthused right now and it's very different from that sort of usual midterm dynamic. >> almost like a switch flipped a little bit in washington. all of a sudden, congress can extraordinary productive. but things outside the total control in washington are going the democrats' way. take a look at what happened in the world of president biden in the last few weeks. gas prices down 20%, unemployment reaches a 50-year
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low, bipartisan bills on guns, veterans, semiconductors, climate change and health care on the cusp of passing. al qaeda leader killed and senate approved in a bipartisan fashion nato membership for finland and sweden. that's just some of it. if you look further back, there's even more. even for president biden things are looking up. and yet, harry, his approval rating is still low. i think we're looking at here 36%? >> cnn poll of polls. usually you see a president's approval rating go down as we head into a midterm election cycle. you start off with that high, that honeymoon period and it goes and goes and goes. i would make the argument that yes, it's true, president biden hasn't seen a recovery. maybe in the most recent polls you've seen a slight uptick, a few of them might be popping at 38% instead of 36%. but i don't think democrats particularly care if their own numbers are going up.
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that is what we're seeing. >> he's not on the ballot in 2022, but they are. i want to bring this up. maureen dowd has a column out today that says, hey, joe, go out on a high note. he could leave on a high knowing he's delivered on his promise. it would be self-after facing and patriotic to the self-ab boshed an treasonous trump. many democrats are hedging on this question of whether joe biden should remain on the ticket. >> this drum beat has been going on for a while. i think going up to the midterms and after the midterms. this is going to be a big argument that will be had within the democratic party because you have the president repeatedly saying he intends to run for re-election. fewer and fewer people, a, believe that, or b, think it's a good idea. when you have a lot of people within the party, people potentially close to the president taking this line, he's going to have to answer it more and more, particularly after the midterms.
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>> i think one of the most interesting things maureen writes in this column, she talks about what biden was elected to do. she's talking about the legislation and notable achievements saying that's really what voters wanted to say. they didn't want this lbj-like candidate to transform everything. they wanted a bridge from trump back to normal see. basically that's what they got. don't be like rbg. this is critics talking about his age, it's democrats as well talking about what he means for the party. >> when i say it's been the to topic dejersey shore, i means among democrats not wanting to talk about it. kansas voters turned out in droves to barn abortion in their states. does that tell us anything about the democrats' chances i in november.
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cooold cuts which side are you on? americans who believe liberty and justice are for all, or traitors inciting violence against our country and trying to take away our freedoms? which side are you on? people who work for a living and care for our families, or the trump republicans who block everything our families need? this november, it's time to show which side you're on. vote for democrats. ff pac is responsible for the content of this ad. so we need something super disctintive. dad's work, meet daughter's playtime. wait 'till you hear this— thankfully, meta portal helps reduce background noise. zero lace model. adjusts to low light. and pans and zooms to keep you in frame. take a look at this. so the whole team stays on track. okay, let's get you some feedback. i'm impressed.
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indiana is the latest flashpoint in a nationwide abortion debate. the republican governor signed a near total ban of abortion into law on late friday night after it was approved by the state legislature. >> i believe life begins at conception. i believe life is a gift. this body has the duty to protect life. >> i am stunned that we are here today about to remove the most basic freedom that women hold dear in their lives. >> days earlier, nearly 6 in ten kansans sent a clear message by voting to keep the right to an abortion in its state's constitution. that decisive win may not have
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stopped indiana lawmakers, but it may be a preview of a new political calculus going into november. >> now the threat on abortion, it's no longer theoretical. it's now real. i think it's going to have a powerful influence, roe v. wade will be on the ballot in november. >> we believe in the sanctity of life in our state. i don't care what it means for the political consequences of the future. >> i think that's pretty telling, i don't care what it means for the political consequences in the future. there's an acknowledgment here among republicans that these abortion bans may not be popular. they may push them anyway. if you're looking at kansas and six in ten kansans are saying no to abortion bans, that means you're also probably talking about some republicans and some independents as well. >> i'm struck by the numbers here. i know harry is our numbers guy. 540,000 people came out and
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voted against that abortion measure. that's a state trump won by about 15 points just two years ago. 18 of the counties voted against this. biden only won five counties in 2020. i think it challenges the conventional political thinking and what people have been saying, how it will affect the midterms, what it's going to look like. the thing to watch for the next few months is how other states try to copy this playbook, how activists are trying to mirror what they did in kansas. >> i was going to say just before you jump in, the turnout is also part of the story here, too. i mean -- take a look at this. we have numbers from this kansas referendum that looks like it approaches presidential election numbers or midterm election numbers where you have a competitive primary situation going on or competitive races going on. that alone tells you a huge part of the story. >> people were very
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enthusiastic, and democrats in particular. you can look at the turn on the democratic gubernatorial primary versus the republican gubernatorial primary compared to four years ago. we saw with the democratic turnout people voted in the democratic gubernatorial primary was ul 80%. the republican side up a little less than 50%. more people choosing the democratic ballot this year versus four years ago compared to republicans. that's so different than what we've seen in other primaries so far this season where republicans were turning out much larger numbers compared to four years ago, but democrats were turning out less. all of a sudden you see this very different dynamic in kansas. i think the question going forward is whether or not abortion can, in fact, sort of be that thing that allows democratic enthusiasm to climb. midterms aren't just about persuasion, they're about turnout, too. >> you see democrats answering that question with how they're running ads. it's only been a few days. listen to what's on the airways
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now. >> tell us exactly who she is. >> are you for the exemptions of rape and incest? >> i am not. >> blake masters has made his dangerous ideas on abortion easy to understand. >> i think roe v. wade was wrong. i think it's always been wrong. >> blake wouldn't just ban abortion, she'd criminalize it. >> it's pretty clear, they now have their primary challenges and the ads that are on the air are on this issue. >> this is the question for democrats. we've seen that this is good for them politically when it is on the ballot, but can they make voters believe that abortion is what is on the ballot. the conventional wisdom is always that particularly in a midterm, voters are voting on pocketbook issues. that has been what republicans have been counting on and what they seem to be really succeeding on up until now. if democrats can change the subject, if they can make it home to voters that this is urgent, particularly at the state level, in gubernatorial
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races they may have success with that. maybe a little higher hurdle with senate races to convince voters that this is what congress is going to be dealing with. we have seen legislation be brought in the senate, but can they convince voters. the kansas vote was very pure. it was an up or down vote on a constitutional amendment about abortion specifically. do you get that same turnout and en thus as. >> whether democrats can continue to turn their rage and frustration with the overturn of roe into actual votes remains an open question in some of these key senate races. it's clear that this is going to at least have impact on the midterms. we don't know quite yet by how much. >> i wanted to show you a map here that kind of extrapolates from kansas to look at what the -- what an abortion
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referendum vote would look like in some of these other states. how the votes would break down. it's fascinating. when you look at a state like pennsylvania, for example, 64% is where a similar abortion referendum would be. in a state like wisconsin, 66%, 65% up here in michigan, in georgia 54%. these are numbers that democrats would say look good, if, as manu said, abortion is on the ballot in an up-or-down fashion. the thing is, it could be. republicans want to press this issue. they are being pushed to press this issue. >> there's not a lot of red on the map which essentially says there would be more pro-life people than pro-choice. all in that interior south, very republican areas. i would say, you pointed out the key midwestern states, border on the midwest in the case of pennsylvania. pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, key gubernatorial
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races there this year. i'm not sure how much you can extrapolate out to the senate. but in a governor's race, absolutely. >> if you're gretchen whitmer, you're absolutely pushing. >> absolutely right. the thing i'll point out, sure, yes, inflation and the economy is still the number one issue. according to gallop, more people say abortion is a top problem in this country than at any point they've polled it in the last 40 years. >> absolutely fascinating. a sleeper issue, the supreme court forced it to the front of the table. coming up next for us, donald trump is on a revenge tour. two high profile anti-trump republicans have lost their primaries. he has a new target in his sights. independent organizationon that sets strict quality and d purity standards. nature made. the number one pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplelement brand. republicans in congress call them "entitlements." a "ponzi scheme." the women and men i served with in combat, we earned our benefits. just like people earned the social security and medicareenefits.
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donald trump promised to exact revenge on the ten house republicans who voted to impeach him. so far he's largely succeeded. at least one more lawmaker fell last week. that was peter mrkszeijer. votes are being counted in beutler's race and she's hanging on by a thread. arizona house speaker rusty bowers lost as well. he refused trump's attempts to overturn the results that and testified before the january 6th committee. the latest target is someone you probably don't know, very conservative wisconsin house speaker robin voss. his crime is refusing merely two years later to somehow declare trump was the winner in wisconsin. >> adam stein is running to defeat your rino speaker of the house, robin vos.
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vos said they won't let it happen again. in other words, it was okay to cheat in 2020, but we won't let it happen again. >> i think we should just let people know, robin vos is an extremely conservative republican. he was actually kind of on board with this idea of trying to find fraud, but he just didn't find any. that is not good enough for trump. >> because there was no fraud in wisconsin which non-partisan committees that investigated that said no, joe biden did win the state by 20,000 votes. what's remarkable about robin vos, he's not a household name, he and trump were quite close once and had a pretty good -- i would call it an alliance. they met in person. he did launch an investigation into the election consults. but there was no fraud so there's nothing for him to push forward. instead of taking the path that you've seen other trump allies in states continuing to push the lie about the election, he said
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there's nothing for me to do. he's still been fielding calls from trump in recent months including a recent one in june asking him to overturn the results of the election and proceed with that. he said it was unconstitutional, there was nothing for him to do. trump admitted publicly he did not know this opponent of his that he's endorsed very well. he said i don't know him, but basically i'm going to endorse him if vos doesn't do what i want him to. >> a couple weeks ago, lindsey graham telling "the washington post," when trump runs, he'll forget about all this election denial stuff which obviously has not happened. also this week, liz cheney is still running. she's likely to lose but put out an ad with her dad, dick cheney, a touring figure in the republican party basically saying that, what you just saw from trump is the reason why he is still a threat to american democrats.
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that's her argument to the american people, not just the people of wyoming. >> i think cheney along with a bipartisan group of senators, i think there is concern on the hill about the election lie and the impact that this had, not only on january 6th, but just generally in terms of what this could mean for 2024, what does it mean for someone like kari lake to be governor, and if democrats, if they win at their election, to succeed in a state like arizona. i think the concerns from liz cheney make it clear she used trump as a cancer on her party, as well as the fact that you have a bipartisan group of senators working on reforms right now that they're trying to pass before 2024 to ensure that the state certification process goes more smoothly and you don't have interference, and that is something that we're watching and it's a sign of broader
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concerns. >> one of the biggest concerns to that point is who is running the elections, 2024 and beyond. one name, another non-household name you should probably know in arizona, the republican nominee now for secretary of state is a man named mark fincham. here is a little about him. he was at the capitol on january 6th. he's identified himself as a member of the oath keepers. he's attended recently a qanon conference. he sponsored legislation to overturn the election results. he's still pushing to decertify the 2020 election. that's in arizona you've got care kari lake, in nevada jim marchand, these folks are on the ballot and they're running on this stuff. >> the question that we were asking in the primaries was trump's obsession with the 2020 election. is that something that republican-base voters care
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about. we have heard a resounding yes. republican base voters do want to continue to promote the election lie. they are very passionate about this passion of trump's. now the question we're going to be asking is what do general election electorates think about this? do they care about the argument about american democrats? the convention wisdom is compared to things like inflation, pocketbook concerns, compared to concerns about covid or the stability of how people are feeling are going to be much more important to voters than these ab tract ideas about democrats and clean elections, and so on and so forth. the question will be in the general election, number one, do voters respond to arguments about this? i think we'll see that in how democrats campaign. are they campaigning on the ideas about democracy or are they trying to meet voters where they are with more concrete issues instead? >> or perhaps all of the above.
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>> do bad candidates really matter is the question i ask myself where everything seems to stem from where people stand nationally. i will tell you, you look at the early polling data from pennsylvania, from arizona, from wisconsin and you do, in fact, see that the democratic candidates are up in the early numbers. it does seem to me that voters are responding. maybe it's not particularly tied to how these candidates feel about the 2020 election, but the vibe these folks are perhaps a little bit more out there than we're willing to go even if we're not exactly thrilled what's going on nationally with democrats. >> when it comings to the secretaries of state races, they have so much power. everyone thinks, the state legislatures are the ones that make the laws of what that state's election is going to look like. as a secretary of state in a stead you have so much significant power over how an election is conducted, you're in charge of how the resources are distributed. you can launch investigations that call into question election results and maybe erode trust in
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voters. i think that's why that's something i'm going to be watching come november, that is such a significant part of what this looks like right now and also what the elections are going to look like in 204. mark finchem in arizona has said if he was secretary of state when 2020 happened, trump would have won arizona. >> we're asking the question about whether voters care, but also there are objective questions here about what is going on with the republican party when it comes to democracy. here is what's happening at cpac, the political action conference which over the years has been becoming wilder and wilder. they had the hungarian president viktor orban who is viewed as an autocratic figure. take a listen to him. >> i'm here to tell you that we should unite our forces. if you separate civilization from the judo christian heritage, the worst things in history happen. if traditional families are
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gone, there is nothing that can save the rest from going under. the globalists can all go to hell. i have come to texas. >> huge applause. this is a guy who has real disdain for democracy, getting a hero's welcome at a conservative political conference. >> the scholars will tell you he is basically the leading example of this type of sort of quasi democratic authoritarianism where a figure like this is able to get elected once and rig the rules in his favor so it's essentially impossible for the opposition to ever win an election again. we see, if we didn't know it already, that this is the clear aspiration of a lot of these figures who want to change the way elections are run and to have a greater say in who wins the election on behalf of the party that's counting the votes.
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the fact that they would actually bring viktor orban to speak at cpac is a little on the nose for that type of thing. >> exactly. authoritarianism is ushered in when they start to rig the election. effectively that's what a lot of these candidates are running on. the senate will vote later this morning on a big health care and climate change bill. we'll talk about the two senators in the middle of it all, joe manchin and kyrsten sisinema. for fast pain relief. and now get relief without a pill with tylenol dissosolve packs. relief without the water. when high quality is the only quality that matters, we fit your standards, with no-compromise quality and a lifetime guarantee. bath fitter. it just fits. sit to book your free consultation. i love a types of dancing... salsa, and even belly dancing! i am a triathlete. i've always been into health, and wellness, and fitness...
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[peaceful music plays] [soft cymbal crash] welcome back. we're keeping an eye on capitol hill for you. senators are planning to vote later today on the democrats' $740 billion bill aimed at lowering health care costs and fighting climate change, but we wouldn't be talking about any of this if it weren't for two democratic senators kyrsten sinema and joe manchin. sinema was giving folks a little heartburn talking about provisions, the carried interest
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loophole. but she got her way. >> i think no one was particularly surprised that sinema wanted changes to this package. we reported that she was feeling frustrated and she felt out of the loop when manchin and schumer announced they had reached this deal. it's not entirely surprised. she did get the carried interest loopholes taken out of the package and she added money for drought resiliency. it's a sign of the fact that she told schumer she would no go along with this package if some of the provisions were not in there. it's a sign of how she's used her leverage -- >> and she has leverage. they're like, okay, what do you want and you'll have it. the other thing going on here with joe manchin is that republicans just -- they sound like somebody just broke up with them. they thought joe manchin was their guy. all of a sudden joe manchin is brokering this climate change
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deal. >> you have the entire democratic caucus waiting to see if kyrsten sinema would nuke the whole thing. when this was all she wanted, they breathed a sigh of relief, yes, give her what she wants, let us vote. there's a lot of angst about the fact that had they just given sinema and manchin what they wanted a year ago. for timing purposes, for political purposes, having this land in their laps now versus a year ago could be better for them politically. manchin and sinema did come through in the end. >> speaking of sinema feeling like she was out of the loop, this was something in washington that is very rare which is a closely guarded secret as they came out with this announcement. it caught a lot of people in the white house off guard because they hadn't been brought in. senior figures were later on in the talks and negotiations, but it does show that with republicans, they were completely caught off guard by this and they've been so frustrated.
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that's why you're seeing all these amendments they're proposing that aren't going to go anywhere, they're doing their best to message against this saying it's not going to reduce inflation, basically saying it's an insult to people who are worried about those prices. when it comes to manchin, at the end of the day, he's still a democratic. there were all these questions of is he going to change parties? he's always been a democrat and always said he didn't walk away from the table, he wanted this to happen. >> at the end of the day he's been there when it matters on this and on judges. coming up next, republican heartburn in key battleground states. could bad candidates actually cost them the senate? advanced safety featureses, like automatic emergency breaking and lane departure warning. that's why our recalibration service isis state of the art. we recalibrate your vehicle's camera, so you can still count on those safety features. all right, we're all finished. >> customer: thank you so much. >> tech: thank you. don't wait--schedule now.
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we have a 50-50 nation. and i think when this senate race smoke clears, we're likely to have a very, very close
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senate still, with us up slightly or the democrats up slightly. >> that very telling statement from the senate republican leader highlights an important fact. control of the senate right now is a jump ball. the history and the conventional wisdom will tell us republicans are expected to win the house, but what is happening in the senate is a different and fascinating story. and we have harry back with us to walk us through it all. harry, you're a betting man. i don't want to be in vegas with you. but tell us, what's going on in the house versus the senate. where are your odds right now? >> throw those dice. if we go over and look right now, look at the chance of chamber control. this really gets at it when we're looking at the next congress. in the house, the conventional wisdom is basically right. the republicans are still a clearly heavy favorite, over 80% to take control of that chamber. the senate, basically 50-50 at this point. >> even if, 51% for the senate is not something i think even
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democrats would have expected at this -- >> i don't think democrats would have expected it. i certainly didn't expect it. and i think this just gets at something we've seen so far, which is, you know, candidates do matter. if we look, if we look basically at the popularity of the different -- make sure i get this right. there we go. the popularity of the different senate candidates that republicans are running. take a look here. look at these key races. herschel walker in georgia, ron johnson in wisconsin, dr. oz down in pennsylvania. look at their net favorability ratings. this is the favorable. they're all under water. >> on the democratic side, similar -- >> we've seen the democratic side for the most part is these candidates are much more favorable. in georgia you see raphael war warnock. in wisconsin we don't have a candidate yet. >> we can go over to the senate side now. >> you can basically see, look at the leads the different senate candidates have.
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these are the choice for senate. look at pennsylvania, look at georgia, look at wisconsin. look at fetterman's lead, 11 points. georgia, warnock's lead. barnes, a plus two points over ron johnson. >> here's the other thing. we're also talking about states that joe biden has won. that's the other reason democrats are feeling pretty good about what's going on in the senate. >> that's exactly right. if you look essentially at these states and you say, okay, what are the most competitive democratic seats, who won them in the last presidential election. look at all the seats democratically won. romney won all of them by double digits. look here at the 2020 midterm. joe biden won all of them. some were closer than others but this is a very different battleground than i think that a lot of people are used to. that's part of the reason you have bad republic candidates and
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very different battlegrounds. >> we have to note, republicans only need to win one net seat in order to take control of the senate. let's go quickly to joe biden. his approval rating is in the 30s. where would he need to be just to maintain the status quo here in this senate in particular? >> yeah. so, if we essentially look back over time and we look at the president's approval rating, in midterms where the white house party had no net loss in senate seats, as it turns out you can have some pretty unpopular presidents. the republicans actually gained seats in 2018. in 1982 the republican party actually held. i'm not sure they're -- >> to be -- these numbers we may never see again. >> yeah. >> what happened here in 2002, this was post-9/11 world, but still, i mean, joe biden is even, according to the polls currently, less popular than donald trump. >> his gallup approval rating is 38%. this chart shows there's not
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that necessary connection between senate seats lost and president's approval rating. democrats hope that's the case this time around. >> harry, thank you so much. we'll be watching all of this. also, what a fascinating senate cycle we are in for this year. it's truly maybe a coin flip where we end up. >> up in the air. i want to be on your team for that. that's it for "inside politics sunday." you can also listen to our podcast. download "inside politics" wherever you get your podcast and scan the qr code at the bottom of your screen. stay with cnn. up next we have "state of the union" with jake tapper and dana bash. dana's guests include senator richard blumenthal and lindsey graham. have a great rest of your day. hmm... back to the miro board. dave says “feed it?” and dave feeds it. just then our hero has a breakthrough. "shoot it, camera, shoot a movie!"
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vote-a-rama. the senate pulls an all-nighter as democrats aim to push through their tax and climate bill. >> this is one of the most comprehensive and imimpactful bills. >> will their inflation reduction act actually reduce inflation? >> it will, in fact, have a minimal impact on inflation. >> and across the aisle. we'll talk to two senators about their history of working together and what's next. republican senator lindsey graham and democratic senator richard blum


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