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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  January 10, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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connected, but the stock performance doesn't seem to have a clear connection frank, always appreciate it. that does it for "the exc exchange." it's about to get busier "power lunch" begins right now. >> kelly, thank you very much. i'm tyler mathisen kelly will be over in just a moment the ten-year used getting back to pre-pandemic levels, and we're looking ahead to a very busy week of economy reports on the one hand and the start of earnings season. the big banks out later this week we're watching one sector bucking the down trend media stocks, viacom and discovery, with a hot start to the year, up more than 15% we'll talk to an analyst who sees even more up sides there. home prices were already expensive. now rising mortgage rates are making houses even less
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affordable what does that mean for homebuilder stocks we'll expose that? just a moment. >> tyler, thank. i'm kelly evans. we're well off the low less than 1 opinion declines for the dow and s&p, but nasdaq still down more than 1%, the tech stocks taking the worst today. for thef irs time since january of 2020, there it is, just below that level this afternoon. so much for bitcoin as an inflation hedge. it's rebounded back up to 41 and change out to bob pisani for more on these moves. bob? >> the important thing here, kelly, is we are looking for a bottom in technology right now i know it looks like a messy day, it is, but it's well off of the lows right now the s&p 500 was down almost 100 points earlier in the morning.
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it's cut those losses in half. tech of all sores, megacap tech as well as speculative, are starting to rally. tech is still down the middle part,what i call th cyclical sectors, they were down on the day, but haven't been moving as much health care, defensive names have moved into the positive territory, so we're off the lows, but the story really isn't the tech sector. nvidia i noted earlier, 25% off its highs. it's still gidget hit-- getting hit. now it's -- i can't see that 170, it looks like from here it's a nice bounce even the speculative tech names that we've been seeing get killed
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zoom was 165 a couple hours ago. a minute ago, it's 169 now, so we're looking for a bottom here. again. you see the down a bit, they were all at new highs, consumer stocks, they were market leaders early on kroger, tyson foods, for example, smucker's, at 52-week highs. so keep it in perspective here. the transports and the russell, there you can see, now have double-digit declines from their 52-week high
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4%, not so bad considering how it's been so volatile. the fed may have to raise rates as many as four times next year to fight inflation, but kri ceo jamie dimon said just moments ago. >> i would be surprised if it's just four increases next year. i think increase of -- it's very easy for the economy to absorb. >> very easy for the economy to absorb says mr. diamond. stef in link, portfolio with hightowerer, good to have you with us. what do you think about what mr. dimon said there about interest rates so he says maybe even more than that, but i also want you to gob to earlier in that interview, where he said some
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incredibly favorable bullish things about the american economy. >> he did. i actually agree with him. i think you have to take a step back the fed -- by the way, they're still very accommodative, even though the taper is coming down. they are going to tighten eventually, but the environment is very liquid the reason he took a step back is the reason they are changing their tune is because the economy is strong. we should be normalizing policy. is that three rate hikes, four, five, ten? i don't know we'll have to see, but when you look at the economy and the data points that are presenting to us, we have strong housing, only likely to get better, because pending home sales were the best since may. you have isms, still comfortably above 50 that's a diffusion index
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auto is running full tilt. they have supply constraints, they're still 25% below production levels that were pre-covid. just imagine when that gets better, and of course you have jobs i think the job numbers on friday were much stronger than most people were thinking. then 70% of the u.s. economy, and there are plenty of jobs going higher, retail sales also strong i'm totally in agreement with what he's saying about the economy and the fed should be acting >> he drew a couple newsworthy items of the week, a couple economic reports out this week on inflation, to your point. we can talk about those quickly, but i don't want to give short shal shrift to the bank earnings
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coming out toward the end of the week wells fargo is a holding of yours, but the other two are notice. >> no. we have yes, earnings are going to be, i think strong. my only concern is the stocks have run up so substantially it's also a rate-sensitive story. for every 50 basis points, increasele fed funds, that is 16% acreasive to earnings, so the operating leverage is substantial, but it's a restructuring story, a cost-cutting story citi is also, they're doing asset sales as well, and trades seven times book it's intriguing, tyler, but i still think wells fargo is the better owned here, and jpmorgan is just a stellar company. i like to buy some of the
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cheaper banks. >> so you like bank of america you like also morgan stanley you also like american express and pru. am i right >> i've 600 basis points overweight relative to my benchmark, ten percentage below my benchmark in technology and comp services, so you can see where i'm tilted tilted toward more value, on more cyclical and reopen that doesn't mean to say i'm going to take technology i think they'll take a pause, pick my places >> stephanie, she just makes it look easy. big tech has been selling off so far some of the media names have been doing pretty nice viacom, cbs, discovery jump a bit. let's bring in julia boorstin
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for why the stocks have been bucking the down trend julia? >> dizzy spite today's sell-off, storks pushed higher discovery, that stock is up about 22% so far this year, also bolstered by an upgrade. viacom is up nearly 17%. this after news last week that cbs and warner media are exploring a sale of their stake in the cw, that's coowned by those two companies. source tell me meaia companies are looking to sell the assets that don't support their streaming initiatives. and the left jersey pieces and any independent players such as amc, they could be acquired by tech giants or bundle together now, in addition to the cw and amc networks, there's starzz,
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exploring its optioning, though it was prettied day that they will not just the starzz division also a & e coowned disney and hearst tech giants such as amazon and apple, or platforms like roku. this morning saying of all these companies it's the most digestible scaled content there. there's so much speculation what could happen in this case. deutsche bank research analyst brian kraft, it's great to have you with us. talk through the cadence how do you think it's likely to play out this year >> sure. hi, kelly. we we think the company has a number of things going for them.
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they're one of only fine scaled, with a big production slate. vie aa com's enterprise value is only -- while the other four have enterprise values in the 120 to $325 billion range. that gives viacom some strategic optionality. we also see some fundamental callus as they report 4x results and their streaming event we expect in february they've seen a nice acselluation of paramount plus, driven by some of the success with content. we also expect improved disclosure of the company's businesses at the upcoming streaming event and also a positive guidance, so you do
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have this strategic optionality that we talked about, but also we think the valuations is really -- we look at the sales basis is 1.2 times, and if you looked at the total enterprise value to their streaming revenue, it's only 5.2 times that's 150u78d zero for the linear business, which is obviously unrealistic. they're training at 7 to 8 times, so that's where we're looking at the stock. >> sure. your other buy rated pick is comcast, our parent company at a time where there's a lot of sentiment around cable competition from starlink. how does comcast fit into what you were describing as it relates to viacom? >> sure, we are a bit carb for our outlook for the capable industry in general.
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we published a report in november, where -- that's creating more competition in broadband, and we're also seeing wireless operators go into the broadband market as well we think companies will continue to grow, but we don't think it will be a god i lox environment that's it's been the past few years. the advantage that comcast has is that it benefits from being more diversified because of their exposure from the ownership of nbc universal and also sky the valuation is attractive, and they've got reopen tailwinds, solid free cash flow growth this year, and we also see some optionality from the company's connected tv strategy, and also gaining some traction streaming
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with peacock comcast's management team has been very solid it's been good to shareholders off the years, so that's the reason comcast is top. >> your top cable stock. viacom with an upgrade from buy to hold, so-day-old be interesting. bryan. thanks for your time thank you. ty coming up, today's sell-off driven by the fear of higher interest rates is that same fear going to start to cool off the housing market we'll explore that plus crypto getting crushed. bitcoin falling to its lower levels since december. big -- will this time be the same or different? compare/contrast, take notes. even in today's down markets we have stock hitting two-week
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highs. energy stocks, comerica, consumer staples, there you see them we'll be right back.
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prices let's bring in diana olick for the latest numbers on those rates. hi, di. >> hey, ty yeah, we've seen a remarkable move higher, especially -- the average on the 30-year fix hit 3.4%, and 3.29% just last monday we haven't seen it this high since the part of the pandemic in 2020. rates then spiked for a few weeks and hit more than a dozen record lows. the past year rates bumped up a bit in the spring as the economy reopened, but then fell back again to the record lows in the fall now rates are spiking, because the fed said it will off-load mortgage-backed bonds than expected it's costing $125 more on the mood anypriced home. higher rates continue to pressure the big builter stocks.
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rbc put out a note this morning saying overall we expect the group to be held hostage and the looming fed cycle, and we're more cautious as we expect fundamentals to moderate. >> thank you, diana. our next guest rye main bullish, the s&p homebuilder index is up more than 30%, but down about 10% to kick off 2022 hi ratesal builders as outperform s steven, grate to have you back. >> i think volatility will be the watch board for 2022 we have also recognized that and have actually taken down some of our target multiples we think it's going to be a
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hard-fought year, earnings driven, but on the other hand we also see so much up side in the earnings relative to what the street is looking for now, that we think at the end of the day, they stocks have significant up side many of these stocks, even with our reduced multiple targets show 50% up side from here that's just too much to pass up. we think it will be a tougher year, but one that. >> the top picks all had a nice 2021, but you say basically the lack of supply is the key reason why the marketwill continue to outperform it's been happening gradually. it's certainly something that continues to surprise people we really heard people, you know, raise one concern after the other as to why housing will not do well. at this point i think most even
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believe it's a bad time to buy a house. what i would tell you, when no one thinking it's a good time to buy a house, you don't have a housing bubble, right? what's going to happen is you'll have this group climb the wall of worry home prices will not roll over they're going to continue to move up because of this crushing lack of supply i would also tell you, you know, you mentioned rates. that's certainly very important, but i would say from the fundamental side, remember that home buys is need-based. the demand for -- we have underbuilt this country for 15 years. nobody want to buy a house, speculation is still have i contained. if mark demand is driven by need, not greed, it's going don't much more resilient to rising rates than it might otherwise be is it rising rates or supply
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chain problems what's vixing them more? >> certainly i think that we went through a period, tyler, over the last three months, where supply-chain disruption was an issue that investors had to grapple with. i think it made earnings move sideways the margins moved sideways we think that's going to resume here they have done a good job adjusting to this home reality it's a complicated business, they have to come in a certain order, all of that, but it certainly was impacted, saw lengthening construction time. we think those construction cycle times will certainly not lengthen materially. if they actually start contracting, you will get builter who will surprise people with how many sales they can make if they can built more, they will sell a lot more
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>> steven, finally when we looks, 3.5% will that lower home prices or b, keep anybody on the sidelines, or do they just have to buy because they have to? >> you know, i think we're in an environment here where affordability is starting off very, very healthy we do not have an affordability problem at this time all the metrics on first-time buyers, loan-to-values, they're all very, very healthy right now. if mortgage rates rise 100 basis points or something, affordability will become stretched, but we think you'll continue to see people m&a make that stretch, because are more will become very much a factor, we think here over the course of next several years when people have the first baby
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show up, they tend to want to look to buy a house. absolutely demographics a key driver steven, thank you so much. retail also having a bad day. xrt etf down more than 2%. wonderful name worth highlighting is lululemon. after a strong holiday, the company says omicron is severely imctg ospainthe sales. the details are next
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here is your cnbc update robert durst has died in a prison hospital. the death is being attributed to a number of health issues. he was convicted in september of murdering a close friend more than 20 years ago. he was also suspected of murdering his first wife and won a self-defense acquittal for the death of a neighbor. he was also the subject of an hbo documentary in which he was caught on microphone saying, he had, quote, killed them all, of course the 2003 "american idol"
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finalist lost to a republican bandy just over seven years ago. he says democrats need toe speak up against white nationalists and homophobes, because, quote, those folks ain't quieting down soon the reverse sideshow the m maya angelou, and a bird it flight she was, indeed, a. >> what a fitting tribute to her. lululemon getting punched as the company warned of a hit from the omicron variant. courtney reagan has the answers. she joint us now hey, court. >> hi, tyler
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it's also possible that omicron will impact retailers in different ways and the hours that the stores were open, due to staffing shortaging about 60% of sales still come from stores. it was about the ability to serve that demand. it's also key to note that most fourth quarters don't close until the end of january, leaving more of the quarter exposed to the omicron variant than perhaps the impact we'll see from other sectors when they begin to report their fourth quarters a little earlier than retail investors are clearly concerned about the impact in gen. take a look at the xrt it has recovered a bit here today, but underperforming the broader markets. some special retailer are preannouncing some results
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before the conference that begins today the ranges are below expectations on the virtual conference call, discussion by management said they wouldn't have done any differently in the quarter shares are down more than 3.5% >> i wish it was down 5%, then we really could be five below. which companies should we be keeping as eye on today, tonight before they become news storm? >> absolutely. a number of retail special players, those are two of them and crocs, which we know has been hot, but we'll be able to here from the executives, perhaps giving us a little more inside into what even they're seeing now as the omicron
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variant hag taken hold. kelly? >> after the break, more on this volatile market, the tech decline continues for a sect week we will look at the charts, nestr next zero-commission trades for online u.s. stocks and etfs. and a commitment to get you the best price on every trade, which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.
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welcome back, everybody. we have about 90 minutes left in the trading day. it's kind of a soggy picture today. stocks, bonds, commodities and the technician's take. let's begin with bob pisani at the exchange bob? >> tyler, this is a very interesting move in the stock market we had a rather significant decline early in the morning i want to show you the s&p 500 we were down almost 100 points so:30, 11:00 eastern time this morning. we have bounce the significantly. look at this weapon eliminated two thirds of the losses today that is a big move all of this, almost all of it is attributable to a midday rally in technology stocks we've been talking about megacap tech stocks, more speculative
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tech stocks, well, it's right across the board really in tech. microsoft, for example, is 314 on the close on friday, went all the way down to 305. look at this, we've almost done a expletely round trip even it believe it or not. speculative tech stocks. so, for example, square was 141 on friday. it hit 133 133. that's the lowest in a year and a half many of these cathie wood type of names were at lows. it's almost back to where it was on friday. megacap tech, speculative tech, all trying to plant a flag he. and all these bank stocks at new highs with jpmorgan and wells fargo. those stocks opened at new highs
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like wells far fargo, but they had not contributed to the raleigh. in fact you had argument they were a source of funds tyler, this is a interesting development. can you say do i have strong feelings that this is the bottom no, that doesn't feel that way, but it's certainly a good sign somebody is attempting to take advantage of the declines. don't know if it's the bottom, but it's encouraging for tech bulls. bob, thank you very much let's move on to a check on yields as investors turn their focus to inflation data. fed chair powell's senate testimony later this week. there you see the ten-year note, little change from where it was at the end of last week, but certainly much changed from where it was before we heard the minutes from the fed meeting last wednesday there you see the two-year note.
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it's been moving up as well, right now 0.898% oil is closing for the day in what's been a volatile session pippa stevens has the numbers for us. >> that's right. this brought-based sell-off. prices were higher earlier in the session, but knowing the tailwind from disruption of production could be abating. $78.11, bankrupt crude falling 1.25% to $80.72. both contracts are coming offer a 5% gain from last week, and goldman's jeff curry said this morning on "squawk box" that the fundamental setup for oil is a spectacular right now, and that we're one year into this commodity super cycle. it's also in the red, and several stocks hit multiyear highs and conoco phillips. >> did you stay stef or jeff
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curry? >> jeff curry. >> mthe nasdaq dipping below the 200-day moving average for the first time since april 2020. let's bring in dan fitzpatrick, the technical analyst at stock market mentor.com. good to have you with us, dan. >> thanks, tyler. >> what does it mean that the nasdaq hit a -- are we anywhere fear the bottom that bob referenced earlier >> no, i don't think so. in fact, i actually remember several years ago talking to, and we discussed the same thing. i'll repeat what we said bottoms don't happen at tops we don't even really know this is a top or just a higher base
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it just seem we chop around and then move higher, but i think the s&p is down some 4%, 5%, but still not anywhere near a bottom i think what we're seeing today is a technical bounce. that's really what i believe the yields are rising, and what that disfavors is tech i just think all of these tech bounces, you can just look at the charts and see rebounds off of the key support or off of key moving averageses, but the money is really coming out of tech, into the financials. that's kind of always the case with a rising rate environment. >> dan, mike quibble here with the notion that bottoms don't happen at tops, the selloffs were so quick but short-lived
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that it's become harder and harder to buy the dips many have stop trying. i think the typical sell-off has been in the range of maybe 5% or 8% they've been fast, you know, quick and we have moved on, gone to new highs every single time what would you say to people who say we've only ever had bottoms near tops. we haven't only ever had bottoms, but frankly most of them have been i think, you know, the question would be how do you define a bottom i just look at these things in a very, very major way, if you're talking a bottom, if you're talking about a trading bottom sure, however, bam
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>> so we're just really ripe for a rebound. i can't go out and predict whether the market from this bounce is going to roll over nobody can a lot of people seem to think they can, but they really can't. >> you can look at the canary in the coal mine, which i look at as arc innovation. until that stops going lower, i think there's probably too much speculation in the market. is that a place to make money
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for proven >> i think it is but the batches are really what are moving if you want to look at the chart, i think you have it there, versus the ten-year yield, you can see there's a perfect correlation there. i like the regional banks, if you're just looking for things you're going to make money on right now, go for the lesser-known names they'll give you better profits. >> like pnc, key and several others i like the guitars behind you. you like the banks, i like the
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guitars. >> thanks a lot. i appreciate it. up next, the crypto collapse continues. bitcoin briefly trading below 40,000 the whole ecosystem is under pressure we trace the moves next. ♪ ♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work.
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let's turn now to crypto bitcoin falling, a 5 1/2-month low. kate rooney has more >> it's a couple things that bitcoin is suffering from the higher-growth riskiers assets, similar to what we have seen in risk stocks. and it is struggling to find new buyers for today's action, that $40,000 market was a key psychological level, but automatic selling played a role here i'm told that's where traders have stop losses, so it did
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appear to find a support level there at the lower levels. it's back above the $41,000 mark another factor, not a lot of new buyers or retail interest. the market sauce a flushout fromsh and in the weeks and months since, bitcoin markets have seen, quote, little activity by newer market entrance longer-term holders have been accumulating more bitcoin at these levels, so a little more action by the longer-term holders. bitcoin derivatives, especially short positions have been glowing at what glassnode cal an aggressive rate. ether, the second largest
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crypto, is seeing deeper declines as some people back away from risks. >> kelly, thank you. our next guest predicted the total crypto market could reach double, he says there's just too much capital and talent in the pipeline john wu, great to see you back let's talk about capital it seems obvious to me if liquidity is coming out of the market, bitcoin, crypto won't be spared i don't think people should underestimate that there was -- through the third quarter of 2021 these -- had actually raised close to $100 billion, even more in q 2k7 4
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their allocation toward crypto went from $8 billion in 2020, to about 30 in 2021 from a fundamental perspective, the inflow will not change sure on the macro side from a retail investor, maybe >> when i look at institutional behavior, john, i often see it chasing performance. so i'm not surprised a lot of inflowing. what i wonder is if they will still continue to buy. they might be afraid of catching a falling knife. the smart money will follow where the innovation is. web 3 is where the innovation is all the metrics that we see have just continued to make new highs. number of transactions on that's like 70% of what ethereum does
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so, number of wall either, monthly active users, are all still making new highs as of right now, the fluctuations in the market is not affecting the operating fundamentals >> what do you make of ther that outperformed on the way up and underperforming on the way down >> i think if it's -- you have the beta adjust it and it is not underperforming. it is part of the more utility, less the storer of value play that bitcoin is about. i'm sure on a beta adjusted basis ethereum with coins with utility are outperforming. >> we spoke with a woman i think from coin desk which has indices of crypto coins and basically they should proposition to allow people to look for styles that they might be interested in.
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do you think that approach makes sense? should people invest in the asset class or getting tactical and buying a specific couple types? >> individuals should invest in a basket or a class of assets and certain themes like etfs in a traditional equity world because this base is so new and new companies pop up why they don't have the time to do the research themselves. pay a fee. let the professionals go out there and figure out where the pockets of strength are and then invest behind that instead of just picking point. >> i thought you would say stick with avalanche, too. >> you could it is an index of the space. >> thank you we'll check back in soon. >> take care. coming up, another group in the red. evs. rivian down as much as 6%.
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lithium america is down 5% and the names had a rough few months 'lwel break down the moves next. ,
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the more questions we have. the biggest question now, what's next? what will covid bring in six months, a year? if you're feeling anxious about the future, you're not alone. calhope offers free covid-19 emotional support. call 833-317-4673, or live chat at calhope.org today. shares of ford up 10% in the
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past month even while they outline the big ambitions the company's making batteries are seeing the stocks fall phil lebeau has more on the moves. phil >> not to be somebody who plays with puns but this is a case where the battery charging stocks or the battery stocks or the evs are running low and they need a charge. take a look. talking about solid power, quantity tum scape, stem all of them under pressure at or near 52-week lows. this despite the fact to see increased demand for electric vehicle just we talked about this over the last several months the number of electric vehicles in this country is 4% and ramps to 10% by 2025 and in terms of battery production it is going to quadruple here in the united states by 2025 according to alex partners, a consulting firm within the auto industry clearly we see greater demand
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there. why isn't this translating into greater excitement and anticipation coming to ev battery stocks couple things. near term the headlines are not good in terms of cost side of the equation lithium, the price doubled in the last year. we talked about this for the components baufrt greater demand they don't have the supply yet and why the price moves high ir. looking at the start-ups, quantumscape and solid power, remember, they work on solid state batteries. companies here in the case of these two with solid state batteries and takes a while to develop. finally investors say'm not sure that this is going to pay offer and then looking at panasonic with the relationship with tesla and the gig factory in nevada. panasonic feeling the pressure
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the ev battery stocks not getting the love right now. >> thank you coming up, a look at the biggest movers to know as the market trying to claw back a bit. we'll rejoin you in two. inner voice (sneaker shop owner): i'm surprising my team with a preview of the latest sneaker drop. because i can answer any question about any shoe. but i'm stumped when it comes to payroll. intuit quickbooks helps you easily run payroll in less than 5 minutes... ...so you can stay... one step ahead.
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all right. let's look at important stocks right now as omicron's impact is hitting. it would seem the reopening
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trade hard today they are down substantially. nevada sands having the worst day since november pardon the use of sinking there, kelly. >> we are just pardoning the fact that interest rates of 10-year above 1.8% tyler, thank you, everybody, for tuning in to "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen a new week bringing fresh volatility to the market we head boo the final hour, mike, the nasdaq down 405 at the lows down 125 now. >> up almost 2% from the lows. i'm mike santoli in for wilfred frost today. look at what's driving the action treasury rates mostly higher the

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