tv Power Lunch CNBC December 31, 2021 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
all, amazon shares, 3.5% the worst performance in a decade resale, hot for ma len yams, all those that love esg and selling old things new again but investors aren't impressed all of them showed between 35% and 59% fell >> makes it fun unless you had those stocks thank you very much. that does it for "the exchange." frank joins me power lunch right now. hello again. welcome to "power lunch. here is what's ahead this hour markets closing out with gains across the board every s&p sector rallying more than 13% what will 2022 bring our market guest says it will be
the year where investors have read the footnotes geo geopolitics could take center stage. we will look at how it could play out and what it means for markets. raise a glass with names like pepsi and constellation hitting all-time high. we have some stocks wall street thinks will dominate in 2022 >> thanks. great to ring in the new year with you let's start off with a check on how the markets are closing out. quiet session today. a great year the dow up 19% for the year. that's the smallest gain of the three major averages energy the best performing sector in the s&p 500 this year, up nearly 50%. utilities, the weakest group but still a double digit gain. we can't close out 2021 without checking on bitcoin. around 47,000, lower than its highs of more than 67,000. still up 60% on the year as stocks look to finish out the year on a calm note, our next guest says investors looking to
have a good year in 2022 need to read the footnotes fundamentals will matter joining us is peter anderson happy new year >> happy new year to you >> we are looking at 2022, you are saying it's a different setup. investors need to read the footnotes and dig deeper the days of putting your money into a sector or into an area like high growth stocks is over. you will have to explain that. why can't we do that in 2022 >> because i think what's happening now, hopefully what's happening, is it's running its course we have seen from the latest variant that it is less virulent but more contagious. that is the way these things should go. ironically, that's good news when you get to that point, i think you have to throw out the playbook that we have been using for the past two years, which is
just sector play stay at home stocks, things like that as we hopefully return to normal, i do think it will become more of what we call a stock picker's market. by reading the footnotes, i mean you do have to roll up your sleeves and check some of the companies out to see if you can find some gems of information that have been lost in the craziness of the past two years. >> we will get to your picks in a moment didn't omicron force us to throw the playbook out already on black friday a lot of investors were calling an audible you are saying more audibles will be needed in 2022 you believe -- i heard what you said -- that you believe covid will be less of a factor for the markets but a bigger factor for the fed? >> i do think so let's just talk -- let me take the fed matter the fed has been desperately trying to keep up with the changing headlines i think to pace that way as a
fed, it's really, really difficult. what i'm seeing for 2022 is really a change in tempo of this news while you are correct, we had a crazy past two years, i do think what's going to happen now is there's going to be a different tempo but a tempo with a theme of improvement you still have to be on your toes i think the fed will have to pivot far more than he has expected at this point we might get some good news in that the next mutation might be the less however, we might get worse news in that case, the fed might have to retract some of the statements prior to that flexibility is the key being able to change with the new data that comes out. even though i think covid will be winding down, it probably will be a period of the most news in terms of how quickly or slowly things will wind down and
how we have to adapt to that. >> we will get to your picks quick. one of them focuses on the pet care industry. this is one where you say you read the footnotes >> i did i read the footnotes on everything let me give you an example for trupanion which is insurance for health care. what is amazing is that it only has about a million subscribers now on its own recently, this past month actually, chewy embarked on an agreement where it will cross sell its products. chewy has 20 million clients or pets that are home delivered pet food can you imagine if just 5% of that penetration satisfies trupanion? that will be a million more clients. that will double their client base there's even more. there's more footnotes with aflac, they have 50 million
clients. they also have signed a sell ing agreement with thement when you look at the noise about the stay at home stocks and macro calls, while you look at that, also get on the sidelines and look at some of the companies in more detail here in my opinion, trupanion say free gift. a lot of analysts have not paid attention to that level of detail if you do a couple of numbers, run this through, you will see it's easier to figure out the future returns will be strong. >> you have my attention my dog is getting water therapy for a strained mcl or something. you got my attention with that call we appreciate the insight. >> do you think i should get a dog? is that -- am i going to bite off more than i can chew >> you have to get a dog you have kids. kids like dogs. >> then it's like having another kid. i thought that was fantastic
thank you very much. as we close out the last trading day of the year, look at some of wall street's calls. would got it right where do the strategists expect stocks to be this time next year let's bring in ron insana. ron, welcome mostly people underestimated the market this year >> yeah, i think so. give hats off to tom lee who called every twist and turn in the market i haven't seen -- tom and i did a private event a couple month ago. i haven't seen anybody call the market since bob prector he followed the elliott wave and used to call the dow to within a point on some days i think tom has had it pretty much spot on the whole year. one of the things that's interesting on wall street, as the markets go high he people raise targets. they hold out the possibility of a correction, as i have. you go with each twist and turn. i think the people who have been most steadfast obviously this year have had the best year among the strategists on the street. >> i'm trying to figure out from what portion of the year these
targets that i have are. it looks like brian belski was a couple points off. you have to take the most optimistic calls those were around the4,800 level. i wonder how that sets us up for 2022 >> judging from the calls going forward, they are more modest with respect to where we will be a year from now. i think that's got some merit insofar as if peter was right and the fed does have to do more work than we currently think, that's not my view, but if they do that's going to precipitate something of a more meaningful correction that's one of the big things in my mind that stands out as a risk factor for 2022 i also think main street will be more normal. i'm going to the old normal as my call for 2022 with respect to how the economy plays out. inflation dies down, growth slows.
i wouldn't be surprised if the fed wasn't as aggressive as people currently think that's going to wreak havoc with forecasts. >> that's what i wonder. i'm looking through the 2022 outlooks belski is at 5,300 goldman, 5,100 decent portion of people over 5,000. the fed is such a swing factor that maybe we look back to recent episodes and say, when they tightened, did that mean a higher or lower stock market >> there's an old rule by a technician, very well-known in the '50s who created the three steps in the stumble rule. you could have one of those years like we have seen in pry periods where the fed does tielten and let up you get a dip in the middle of the year and a rebound towards the end if the fed takes its food off the brake i think variety of reasons, that might be the call. inflation will come down
supply chain issues will disappear or dissipate the economy will grow closer to trend. i read an interesting study the other day that suggested post-pandemic environments, normal is actually the most frequent outcome that everything goes back to trend line. thijs don't get blown out in the way you might expect that's something that really grabbed my attention >> it's frank. happy holidays you said something that caught my ear we were looking athe price targets and average and median it's 4.5% to 5.5%. that seems like it's bullish with the markets near all time highs. you said it looks like the supply chain issues to over. but there is still omicron there's still inflation. maybe are we being a little too optimistic about 2022? >> i think anybody would be happy to get a 4% gain next year after doubling 18 months off the lows of march 2022 and new highs
of today a 4% gain would be a welcome pause if you will. actually, a decent performance we are going into the second year of the presidential cycle, which is not that strong for the stock market there are a lot of variables at work at this point i think it's going to be more choppy with down side toward the middle of the year and then a rebound towards the end. that's demend enter on a lot of things i think the biggest risk -- i know you will talk about this later. besides the fed and the pandemic, should it run out of control, is going to be geopolitics. russia, china, iran items may be the biggest variablesnext year i think main street is more normal than it has been since any time in the 2019 >> ron, what a segue you may have done this tv time a couple things before.
>> we're going on 38 years coming up, the administration is entering 2022 with brewing geopolitical tensions around the globe. how did ron know from iran to russia to china, the issues that will matter the most to the markets and how they could play out thirsty for gains. soda, wine, beer, beverage stocks are seeing new highs this year will those gains continue? that's coming up
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global risks are rising as we get ready to kick off a new year president biden urging russia to decrease tenses. our next guest argues 2022 is the year of living dangerously fred kemp is president and ceo of the atlantic counsel and a cnbc contributor these are familiar risks what do you think increases the potential fallout as we look towards 2022 >> i don't think there's been a u.s. president in the last 30 years, since the cold war, who has faced such a combination of geopolitical risks with russian troops at 100,000 maybe going up to 170,000 outside ukraine, the risk of an invasion. china baring down on taiwan.
anyone who think u.ss you can separate those, doesn't understand how close those two are right now. third, you have iran reaching the 60% enrichment level they are allowed up to 4% under the treaty 90% is a bomb. no one knows what the israelis might do if they see that this is moving ahead. i think what really makes this even tougher is it comes at a time of not only external challenge but domestic weakness for the united states. you have midterm elections coming up, continued dispute over the election, the january 6 anniversary. i think it's just the combination of all of this coming together that has got people worried. >> i would add, you have an american public that's not keen on intervention, which has been true for probably 100 years. seems especially true after both the trump years and some -- look what biden did with afghanistan. there's a sense that -- is that
shaken what do you think the u.s. would do if russia invaded ukraine what do you think the average american would want the president to do? >> let's go to the present you are right. this is a time of international diffidence for the united states oured aer eadversaries know th. they see this as a sign of u.s. weakness they see it as a sign also that the biden administration is focussed on issues at home which is understandable. this might be -- that could mean 2022 is a rare moment for president xi in taiwan and president putin in ukraine to get what they want for their legacy what can we do about it? the administration is acting wisely in terms of diplomacy
i think the call yesterday at putin's initiative -- he is trying to keep the pressure on there will be talks january 10th probably in geneva between the u.s. and russia. followed by talks on the 12th. followed by esce talks that's good. but what is it that's going to force put ton stand down it isn't military action it's one has to ratchet up what he sees as the cost so it becomes prohibitive to him at this point, i think that putin is not going to consider the cost prohibitive unless he gets something diplomatic out of that we can't give what he wants, which is a promise that ukraine would never come into nato and a promise we would never expand nato further into the region because we believe that's the sovereign choice of individual nations. >> a lot of conflict here. you compared the situation with
china, russia and iran to a knot that's bold action needs to be taken. is there a bold action that president biden can take here? does he have the political capital in d.c. to take action >> that's a really good question it does normally require bold action bold action doesn't necessarily have to be dropping a bomb on somebody's head. it could be, for example, in the case of ukraine, getting weapons to ukrainians now before the action takes place moving more troops into the baltics or neighboring countries that are in nato now and saying to putin, you have escalated we want you to deescalate. we will not do nothing we will show you how high costs are going to be. the bold action doesn't have to be military response, which is not going to come. but just signaling that there are actions, sanctions and
otherwise that are going to be too high to bear making that clearer in coordination to the extent one can while not being able to lie to the chinese or the russians that we are going to take military action, because as kelly was indicating, u.s. people wouldn't be behind that i think this administration has made clear that's not in the cards. >> i wonder if they wouldn't wait the situation out they anticipate the u.s. becoming weaker financially, militarily why make a move on taiwan now if they anticipate it could be easier in five or ten years? >> i think that's right. the other thing, look at china's year they have the winter olympics coming up. they don't want trouble before that then there's this window between the win feter olympics and their party congress in october. where president xi will become president for life coinciding with our midterm
elections a month later. i think a lot of people are seeing the moment of danger coming after the point he becomes president for life certainly not before the winter olympics he may not have to take military action i think the chinese have a lot of different ways to apply pressure on taiwan over time what he doesn't want to see is anything moving in taiwan that looks like a permanent form of independence. >> people can read more about your thoughts on kcnbc.com more coming up regulation what regulation? looking at the performance of big tech stocks. investors aren't too concerned about any d.c. intervention. are they right
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want video content to engage your audience? fiverr gives you direct access to specialty freelancer skills, like video editing, with great value at any price point. head to fiverr.com today and get something started. welcome back here is your cnbc news update. new details about why omicron causes milder disease than other covid variants "the new york times" says it appears to do less damage in the
lungs. that's the early indication from a number of studies on animals and human tissue they found omicron infections are often limited to the nose, throat and windpipe. president biden plans to reaffirm u.s. support for ukraine's solidarity that country's leader -- pope francis invested a service at the vatican. in a change, he did not lead it. he did give a homily praising people who responded to the pandemic with solidarity winnie the pooh will be this the public domain starting tomorrow. u.s. copyrights expire after 95 years. that's bad news for walt disney. they are protected tigger is protected for another two years because he first
appeared in 1928 >> i think this is bad news for xi if pooh is now more broadly available. >> fair. >> thank you very much the final power movers of 2021 pfizer, the company's antiviral drug was approved by british regulators shares up 60% year to date that's nothing compared to moderna which gained almost 150%, making it one of the top performers in the s&p 500 this year stay at home, work at home, work out at home, not poleton's darling status, losing three-quarters of its value this year the website is getting less
traffic. bridgebio pharma lost 70%. today, it's up 13% to put it in context it closed $40 last week and $11 on monday. >> wow ahead, climate cash. billions float into the industry in 2021. will the sector stay hot or cool off? pelosi purchases the house speaker's house gets into the options game. into the options game. details and the fallout ahead.. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. we gave new zzzquil pure zzzs restorative herbal sleep to people who were tired of being tired. i've never slept like this before. i've never woken up like this before. crafted with clinically studied plant-based ingredients that work naturally with your body. for restorative sleep like never before.
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that's why it doesn't move the s&p very much. reits were huge. anything with storage, new high. anything with apartment, ownership of apartments, new highs. technology is a winner old-school tech was the winner software did well. the cloud computing stuff, robotics we were into, they underperformed old-school tech won out this year banks were up 30%. they rallied in the early part of the year on the expectations of higher rates. january, february, huge for them largely just held on for the rest of the year a very good performance from them defensive stocks were laggards utilities, up 14% this year. new high today consumer staples, the same they went nowhere most of the year big rally in the last month on the uncertainty. they hit a high today as well. industrials is the heart of the group. they were sideways for a good part of the year the s&p was up 27%
industrials up 19% consumer discretionary, a wide group, up 24%. everybody gets excited, i got emails about energy this year. let me show you. since 2009, the s&p 500 over there on that bright line, that's up 440% energy is almost flat in the last 13 years. almost flat after 13 years don't think this year's performance is anything necessarily for you to go diving into finally, if you think it's easy to figure out the stock market, think again. it was difficult to just figure out what was going on in the travel industry this year. here is a bass keft hotel stocks up 31% this year it outperformed the s&p 500. who would have thought that? wait a minute. airline stocks are down this year how do you explain that? longer distance travel is having
a harder time. how about we take out airlines and hotels completely? there's a travel etf out there, no airlines, no hotels, just uber and lyft and airbnb, it's down 5%. those stocks also underperformed here is a good example you really have a hard time -- imagine trying to pick stocks actively this is why it's hard to do that you get things that don't necessarily make sense if i told you this eight months ago, i would have said, that doesn't sound right. that's what happened. >> it's very, very difficult. >> it's hard to pick stocks. >> it's very difficult bob, thank you very much as we turn to the bond market, tracking the action with rick. for the year, we have seen many changes. the last month has been a little quieter. >> yes it's going out with a wimper the cash market closed a half hour ago we look at the two week of tens, you will see that it was mostly sideways last couple of days we popped
above 150. that's basically where we hovered. he had closed at 151 what's note worthy about 151, it's exactly up 60 basis points from the 91 we closed at if you look at it going back to pre-covid -- i picked the last week of january 202. why? because the key last bottom before covid affect started to hit was to close at 150. the range right towards the middle of january was 150 to 160. that still haunts the bond market what should we pay attention to? if you want to gauge interest rates for 2022, three big things the fed's balance sheet. they don't talk about it much. at some point, they will have to drain that balance sheet it's a must. they didn't drain enough after the credit crisis. second, inflation. transitory '70s inflation was transitory when you look at it.
that's going to be a key issue when and if and how much the fed tightens its affects on stocks is crucial think the end of 2018. back to you. happy new year >> happy new year, rick. let's check on oil that's finished trading for the year wti settling down 2% right around $75 a barrel, as you can see here that's an increase of 55% this year with ups and downs, a steady climb right up here to the close. equities have trailed this a little bit energy stocks best performing sector but up only 47% there you can see, solar by the way, etf, down 25% not a lot of people would have seen that coming 12 months with the biden administration coming to take over the big energy story of 2021 was the rise and fall of natural gas. take a look today. adding 4% to close out the year. for the year, we are up 46%. at one point, it looked like we could be up doubling very different story in europe where doubling is a better
situation than what they are facing with prices spiking into the winter two things will determine where natural gas goes from here the weather and vladimir putin both factors can be fairly unpred unpredictable. in 2022, you can expect more money for climate spending from the federal government and from private companies. >> the business of climate in 2022 will depend in the u.s. on the fate of president biden's $1.75 trillion build back better plan which was recently torpedos by senator joe manchin of west virginia who has tied to the coal industry. roughly, $555 billion was earmarked to shift the u.s. from fossil fuels to clean energy that included tax incentives there was also a $12,500 tax credit for buyers of electric
vehicles about $12 billion aimed at making buildings more energy efficient. more for research on clean technology like pulling carbon dioxide out of the air parts of this could be passed outside of the full bill all that spending hangs in the balance. ven venture capital is spending on clean tech that will increase in 2022 in 2021 there was record investment of $60 billion. a 210% increase from the previous 12 months climate tech now accounts for 14 cents of every venture capital dollar according to pwc. the average deal size has nearly quadrupled >> wow at the same time, we didn't see good performance in solar or a lot of the clean tech names this year what are some risks for next year >> one red flag to watch, supply chain issues, as with everywhere else and rising costs for terms. especially in the solar industry that's causing solar panel prices to rise for the first time in years.
the solar energy industry association just announced its solar installation forecast. they reduced it by 25% because of that. there's a looming shortage of lithium, cobalt for batteries. that could have far reaching implications >> mark zuckerberg called in front of congress this year. will 2022 be the year tech's worst fears are realized government intervention. while congress is supposed to be regulating big tech, many members are buying stock in those same companies nancy pelosi defending their right to do so >> this is a free market we are a fe remarket economy they should be able to they should be able to participate in that. some people say if you want to see america, see it on the 4th of july.
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have gotten bigger and bigger as their market caps have spelled dan gallagher wrote about this in today's paper happy new year >> happy new year to you thanks for having me >> let's get into it you are saying it's big tech's bet on politics as usual are investors wrong? what are they missing that you are seeing morgan stanley and some others see risk for big tech. i think the big question, does more regulation mean less revenue and less profit? >> i think that's a big question we don't know because we don't know what regulations might take place. i think what you are -- what you are seeing with investors is that they have been ruled by multiple years of threats by washington to crack down with nothing materializing. it goes back to the 2016 election and questions about facebook's role in that and then that snowballed into talking about the role of other tech companies and how big they have
gotten we are five years into this era of controversy it's easy for investors to say, washington is so sharply divided, it's been easy to say, we don't see anything actually really happening as a result, they are not pricing any risk into the stocks >> dan, it's kelly i appreciate you pointing out the risks. at the same time, there's an implication that they are friendly enough with regulators to be able to kind of shape the direction that any regulation could go >> that's -- i don't think that is totally wrong i don't know if i term it as friendly consider the story my colleagues ran earlier this year where in response to the latest stuff with facebook, what facebook has done is use -- they became wise to the game plan, one side of
the aisle against the other. you can't dismiss the legal muscle they have to try to head things off before they start we have seen that being successful so far. betting on that will continue to be successful in the future. nothing will come of all these threats. that might be a risky position >> dan, you believe that the midterms maybe are the -- pending midterms and the democrats' lack of clarity may be a catalyst from the regulate big tech the troubles with the build back better deal, are those a headwind, tailwind, more regulations? the biden administration needs a win. >> they do that was a point raised. the fact that if the democrats are looking and worried about losing power in the midterms, that could compel them to get
something going now over the next eight, nine months and makes that period possibly more risky. i don't know if it represents the pinnacle of the risk if the midterms do something and change power in washington, does that let big tech totally off the hook i don't think so republicans have their own problems with big tech that's part of the problem why we haven't seen a lot come out the two sides disagree on what the problems are i don't think -- personally, i don't think either way the election goes in the midterms, i don't think that gets rid of the risk >> you are saying the $10 trillion makes them a big target no matter what in 2022 is the do or die year for regulation, what do you think could be the first regulation or the first couple things we could see come down? >> you might see the stuff that's a little easier to get agreement on first i would call those things the smaller things like areas like
privacy and rules about how these companies treat those sorts of issues. those are easier things to pass. the nuclear option that i think invests -- some investors feared is the breakup option. companies get broken up by regulation i think that's kind of a long shot that requires more unity on the hill than we see the risk is not zero >> thanks for joining us today happy new year >> you too thanks for having me >> dan gallagher frank? >> dan will have a happy new year you don't know if you saw the bar behind him we will talk about the beverage industry in a second rising interest rates were a fear for stocks in 2021 for everyone except banks which normally like those higher rates. we will check how that group did this year. we are raising a glass to beverage stocks. name u.ss you know trading at all-time highs
financials, a key area of focus as we talk about fed hikes a strong year for the banks. wells fargo soaring nearly 50% there you can see where investors thought there was most up side. bank of america, goldman sachs,. so you might think, great. all the financials did well but not so much. credit card names struggled with more competition paypal declined 19%. visa closing out the year negative and mastercard with a 1.5% gain, frank. >> getting ready to toast to 2022 we want to draw down on beverage stocks. there's headaches from omicron, headwinds from supply chain challenges many of them including coca-cola up for the year and trading at all-time highs are there more gains ahead
to answer the question, an analyst at wells fargo covering the beverage stocks, happy new year. >> happy in new year. >> beverage stocks are under xlp etf up for the month and outperforming as investors turn to a defensive play. do you see that boosting we have raj stocks in 2022 >> good question one of the things we have been tracking is concept of volatility and how that's impacting the staple group performance in covid and the trend is predictive. there's been about ten significant bouts of volatility like we saw going into december. a spike in the vix index staples outperformed in that period but that volatility
unwound the market has gone back to offense and staples is a return to outperformance staples outperformed when it's time to be defensive that's the trend what's interestingi about december is this is the widest period of outperformance the question is whether that sustains going into next year. in any case we tended to prefer stocks that offer upside on fundamentals and valuation irrespective of that macro trend. >> two of the picks, one is coke and constellation brands how do you see an unexpectedly stronger dollar and inflation here in the u.s. impacting the different beverage stocks? >> yeah. it is the biggest question for
investors going into next year the concept of inflation is a problem for these stocks of the past year and continues to next year and no one is really immune to that. that will impact the sector. the currency is a new concept. that hits coke big picture inflation is an issue for all companies into next year that creates challenges for companies next year. that's why we like coke. that's why we like constellation. think about coke the one liner i like to use is the most interesting price cost slag to next year. pricing is building. that's why we're positive on next year and valuation is below prepandemic levels throw in earnings and value you
can have a two pronged return. same thing on constellation. momentum building. supply is improving. pricing is building, too again, valuation is below most of the peer sets upside on earnings and value going into next year the fact that both have an element of recovery into 2022 gives you a cherry on top. >> yeah. 50 to 60% of sales for alcohol companies in bars an enrestaurants a key part of the business we appreciate the insight. >> thank you. the stocks nancy pelosi's husband is bing uyand the controversy it is creating "power lunch" finishes after "power lunch" finishes after this break
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the worlds of politics and the stock market colliding again as financial disclosures how nancy pelosi's husband bought millions of dollars of call options on google, disney and salesforce ylan, this is an area where people think the rules need to change. >> that's right. the speaker's spouse appears to be cashing in on the santa claus
rally. paul pelosi, husband of nancy pelosi, recently purchased call options on nearly half a dozen big name tech and media stocks all expire next fall or early 2023 they do not violate any rules and said the speaker has no prior knowledge or involvement in transactions but the trading activity is reigniting the debate and some push to ban trading altogether abigail spanberger is behind a bipartisan bill to require members, spouses and did dependents to place assets in a blind trust why members cannot be allowed to buy, sell or trade stocks it is not just wrong but it
erodes trust in ow democracy an investigation found 52 lawmakers did not properly disclose the trance angsts pelosi said that they have a right to participate in the free market economy back over to you. >> she is pretty sort of adaman that it would be bad to follow the same laws. still people on both sides of the aisle who think it's time to end this and don't have an ability to buy stocks but it just doesn't smell right do you think there's a chance they will be prohibited from doing this >> the reality is pelosi is against it it probably won't go far but this is uniting moderates and progressives and s conservatives. the rules around these financial disclosures are complicated and enforcement is weak and room for
reform if they choose to do so. >> thank you so much frank, what was the dog has a torn ligament in the knee? >> yeah. he is getting water therapy. so in the weeds of my life he sprained the knee or something. >> we wish them well have a happy new year's eve. we wish you well "power lunch" ends right now "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost at new york stock exchange this is the final hour of trading for 2021, a year of transitory inflation, memes and the metaverse. we'll he you get the portfolio for 2022. >> welcome, everyone i'm sara eisen happy new year, dubai. we have a look at the fireworks display. >> look at this. >> a