tv Fast Money CNBC November 30, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
>> it will be hit by salesforce. it was a bit of a fail today after yesterday's bounce. >> definitely. it was a half hearted or wounded bounce we will see. we are only 3 1/2 off the high >> we are out of time. tonight, the stocks tank we are breaking down the fallout and finding new opportunity in the big drop the ultimate safety trade. apple holding up in today's session. is this where you want to park your money we will take to you the charts oil tanking today. we are drilling down on the energy trade welcome to "fast money." we start off with the 30 words that sent stocks spiraling. >> it is approacpriate to consir
wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases. perhaps a few months sooner. >> that threat of a faster taper sending the s&p plunging nearly 2% to its lowest close of the month. it's below friday's sell-off low. every sector down today. yields also on the move. the spread between 10 and 2-year rates hitting its lowest level since january. how do you set yourself up as hawkish as we thought -- you guys thought powell's testimony was last night when it was released, he was more hawkish today. what do we do? >> clearly inflation is -- i think he is concerned. you hear comments like that when he had all the air cover in the world not to make comments like that it make u.ss you wonder, what realization is he coming to?
the market is proving for me over the years, it's impervious. 4530 in the s&p, the all-time high in september. the one you have to look at in my opinion -- kudos to carter who pointed out the false breakout 214 or so is your line in the sand it closed around 219 today that false breakout has people concerned for good reason. >> it's impervious as long as it has the fed in its corner. it seems powell is more concerned about inflation versus the stability of prices in the markets. tim, what's your interpretation? >> look, it's ironic, it's shocking for a guy that put transitory in the dictionary in america, where are supply chain dynamics not transitory we know they are not the lack of slack in the labor
force, there's a function of covid disruption there's a function of higher wage growth and services inflation that's far from transitory it's an extraordinary -- if there's one thing that we have all pointed out -- i will say it again. more central bank equals more volatility if they're going to move faster than we thought, markets are not priced for this. that's really what it comes down to it's not about eps revision comesing down. it's not necessarily about where the multiple on the s&p has got. it's all about what the fed does what you heard today after last night we suggested it sounded hawkish, today was downright hawkish. i think that's something that we still have to come to terms with it's shocking relative to a central bank that was not just indifferent but almost blind to inflation. this happens on a day when housing prices are up 19.8% after 19.5% last month we will get numbers here
there's nothing in there that should make inflation feel good. >> karen, you tweeted a picture of a hawk earlier today. you said, i thought that was a hawk but it was jerome powell. do you really -- are you detecting a change this was supposed to be the most t telegraphed taper in the history. granted it's a small data set. the one the markets were expecting. yet, we have this reaction >> yeah. he is doing that again telegraphing something further again that the taper may actually happen a little bit quicker. in reality, does that make that much of a difference i don't know it does the idea of, wow, the fed is really now -- they are serious they realize inflation is not transitory as they thought not even going to use that word anymore. that's a change that's interesting. i think the market can be okay
down 600 and whatever it was it's an ugly day it's not the end of the world. if you step back, back to a month ago, that's not that big of a deal. i think the market can do fine if the economy does fine and the fed tightens i don't think the market can do fine if thetightens. it comes back to the variant do we get our arms around it quickly? do we feel like it's a big threat that may be transitory i don't know i think the market can rally off of that. i'm actually -- blood on the street, some of which is mine, i'm looking to buy >> karen went where i wanted to go that's the scenario in which the fed starts to tighten and the economy isn't doing so well. you have to think, we tend to be -- i don't want to say conspiracy theorists look at the way things can be
interpreted in a negative way. the way jerome powell sort of became very, very hawkish today in a seemingly abrupt change, you have to wonder whether he thinks the fed is being backed into a corner. it's got no fight. it has to fight inflation before things get too hairy out there with the economy given this spread compression that we have seen, is there a thought in the market do you think that stagflation is a possibility? >> not only a possibility but i think it's a real outcome here danny moses talked about it. dan nathan brought it up there's no question about it the move in yields today was a flight to quality. that will be short lived inflation is here and slowing growth is here as well by the way. they can't combat that i think they have come to that realization. given the forces at work, i think they are choosing to fight inflation before they are choosing to try to reaction sell rate the economy, understanding that any attempt to do that will
make the inflation portion that much worse they have absolutely backed themselves in a corner he has known it all along. the outcome is such that he has to make this decision. good for him if that's where they are going that taper of $15 billion probably should be larger. i'm not running the fed right now. >> dan, you aren't either. but what are your thoughts. >> i am not. i would say this the notion of fighting inflation, if they had done it sooner, look at where the drop-off we had in q3 gdp expectations it started at high single digits it came in about 2% or a little above that if they started tapering, we would have had that and it would have been worse. i'm with guy i like the fact in the face of this they are going to finally take a look at inflation or acknowledge it i will mention one other thing about the stock market the s&p 500 is down about 3.6% from its all-time highs made just last week
one of the things that stuck out to me today was the equal weight s&p 500, it's down nearly 6% from its highs i know we will talk about apple and the day it had just think about that. if we have apple going the other way, if we have microsoft going the other way, this market is really due for a correction here i think the equal weight s&p is telling you how bad the breadth is small caps are down 10% from their all time highs after a failed breakout. most stocks in this market do not act well right now >> yeah. obviously, the flip side of the s&p, the broader index doing better than the equal weight big cap obviously are performing on a relative basis. is the message to the markets correct in your view if we had heading for this environment where there could be increased chop in the market, because uncertainty on the course of the fed taper and omicron, is that the safety play?
>> the safety play is big cap tech if you think we have slow in growth. if you think the fed lost control of inflation and that you will see rising rates and this works, get out of the way you have a hedge for yourself in the middle of this you have a case where mega cap tech stocks have been carrying the day. that's something that's not an overnight trade. it's something that actually -- if you go back from those october lows, the triple qs have outperformed the s&p very much mega cap tech heavy today continues to outperform. i would not run too far away i do think there's an overreaction, because with that 3.7% pullback from last week's all-time high, there was a 10.7% move higher from the october 4 low. we need to take a deep breath. the fed is the biggest issue
i can't handicap jerome powell's commentary it's different from what we had. that scares me i would rather be in energy, in reflation trade and in value when i don't think growth is falling out the window the fed, i can't handicap them i think ultimately you have things that are oversold on the down side. >> do you want to be in banks? what we have seen with the spread is not optimistic we go through this all the time. banks don't necessarily need the yield curve to be steeper. it's nice and trades that way. here we are with the spread very, very narrow. that's going to hurt this trade and has hurt this trade. >> yeah. it has hurt this trade i think it may continue to weigh on this trade. it did narrow quite a bit today. it's been narrowing in front of that it's down -- it compressed a lot. i don't know that we will see it maybe we will -- we are
two-thirds of the way through the quarter. i don't know how much we will see it when earnings come out. we will see what they expect for the future net interest margins. long banks, that has not been a fun one. as they come in, i would like to buy more i didn't today can i add one conspiracy theory about the fed? >> yes. >> and about powell. which i know you love them not that you do, but you love them is that since he was renamed to the chair position and we know biden is quite concerned and vocal about inflation, he didn't choose someone else. he was looking for a hawk, to talk about inflation so powell is now doing his job it seems to me it also happens to be true inflation is here for sure >> we certainly saw the biden administration trot out janet yellen she opened that door to the fed doing something about inflation.
maybe if we had read -- obviously, we are armchair quarterbacking the tea leaves were out there. guy, back to you the markets are impervious all good still are you still feeling good about an end of the year kind of rally? are you getting grinchy? >> first of all, i'm grinchy 365. >> i know. >> that's the way i'm wired. you know that -- the grinch was also the hero of his show. if you want to get down to brass tacks. tim makes an excellent point there's a complete 180 here. the rhetoric has changed i love karen's conspiracy theory i do think the market has been impervious and will continue to be i think seasonality suggests we will get a rally i will tell you, if the biden administration to karen's point is using the fed chair to sort of tamp down inflation, be careful what you wish for. you might tamp that down but you
might tamp the stock market down more and consumer spendingto m all hinges upon the stock market continuing to do well. they are pulling a lot of levers be careful which ones you pull >> despite today's sea of red, our next guest sees up side ahead. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> you are optimistic for next year the key risk is a hawkish shift in fed policy in central bank policy did we see that today? >> i think we did to some extent i think the bigger question is really is the faster taper a precursor to a sooner liftoff and more aggressive liftoff? that's what i think will -- is the bigger factor at play. i heard some of the discussion that you had just a few minutes ago. we need to see -- obviously, the fed needs to address inflation i'm sure probably there is some
pressure they are getting from the outside from d.c we need to see to what extent they follow through versus not i personally think given that this is a midterm election year and they probably don't want to have the growth rolled over, i think they will probably end up being still more balanced. the good side of this, we have gotten the hawkishness and the faster taper sort of out of the way. the market now has basically started to -- more than a month or two months ago. >> glass half full that's interesting it's interesting that you say that politics could play a role. that would be obviously a market change from what the fed should be doing in terms of considering the course of the monetary policy are you saying it could be influenced by what's going on politically around it? >> no. what i'm saying is, you want to see a good economy, a healthy
labor market, an expansion that doesn't basically hit a wall i think the fed is willing to normalize keeping that in mind i think if the fed is moving aggressively in a backdrop where growth is rolling over, you kind of go bag to ck to square one i'm not sure what you are accomplishing. >> it's tim. thank you for coming on. talk about style talk about the divergence between value and growth you have written about this. i think you have a view. >> i think it's quite simple here one measure i will throw out there, if you look at -- if you ask, what is the premium that investors are paying right now for low volatility stocks? think of them as higher quality safety stocks. relative to value. that relative premium is now back to covid highs. back to covid highs. march 2020 when the degree of uncertainty was ten times bigger bottom line, i think when you
sort of look at high beta stocks, not just cyclical value, within growth -- there's huge amount of dispersing. if you look outside of the u.s., europe, emerging markets, i think there's a lot of negativity priced in when you look at internal and what's happening beneath the surface under the market obviously, the five or ten biggest mega cap stocks in the u.s. have been breaking out. there's high concentration let's not fool ourselves i think there's a lot of negativity priced in when you look at the value trade is performing relative to the higher quality lower volatility stocks >> price target for the s&p 500 next year is 50/50 you like a pro cyclical tilt in
terms of energy and consumer services, health care, small caps what i also thought was interesting within your call on the global viewpoint is your call on europe and relative out performance to the u.s why -- given omicron and the lockdowns europe is seeing, what are you seeing in terms of the drivers there? >> on the omicron side in terms of the latest south african variant, i will say, we are not worried. we don't think this will impact the outlook in any material way. it's temporary so far, symptoms relatively mild we think that likely remains the case what i would say -- when you look at outside of that, we do expect for rates to move higher, also real rates. we think it may be hard for tech, especially mega cap tech, to continue to lead to the up
side fundamentals will be fine. we see more of a market performer in other parts of the market see a multiple re-rating. there's room nfor emerging markets to stage a comeback. >> great to have you with us thanks so much >> thank you for more on the full 2022 market outlook, head over to cnbc.com that's an interesting point in terms of the tech heavy united states relative to the less tech heavy other parts of the world like europe. what do you think of the call? >> i do think it's an interesting point that he makes that under the hood there's a lot of negativity here if you think about the next couple of weeks, what we have here, we have stuff going on in washington, the debt ceiling we also have a fed meeting coming up. we know this fed chair powell has done some about fafaces.
if the stock market goes down too low into that fed meeting, he will manage sell-off in equities you have that to look forward to everyone has to be cool here we are down 3% from an all-time high the s&p and nasdaq are up 20% on the year another 5% or 6% might be a great thing for that 50/50 target that he has for next year we have to take a little fear out of some of the mega cap names. then you reload. those are the names i like to reload other ones, down 30%, 40%, 50%, you might get something on sale, you might get something that grows into the valuation over the next year or so. i think the top six names are the ones you would love to see down 10% or 15% over the next couple months and load up for a rally in 2022. we have more on today's market, including the ultimate safety play. one stock seeing green in the
sea of red this is where you should park your money we are digging into the crude collapse oil falling to a three-month low. how should you trade the space we are all over the after-hour sales of salesforce. we will break down the latest. ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.
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click, call or visit a store today. welcome back we have an earnings alert on salesforce julia? >> that's right. salesforce shares down 5.5%. the company announcing that the president and coo brett taylor is being promoted to co-ceo. taylor also becoming vice chair of the board salesforce did beat expectations in the top and bottom line it was guidance that fell short of expectations. that's what's sending the stock lower. revenues of 6.68 billion were just ahead of expected guidance for fourth quarter earnings of 72 to 73 cents, that fell short of the 81 cents that
analysts anticipated the company gave a longer-term outlook. guiding to 31.7 to $31.8 billion for next year. that's below the $31.8 billion that's the analysts' consensus marc kicked off today's earnings call talking about his new co-ceo brett taylor, saying he has had an amazing run over the past five plus years at the company. taylor adding that this new partnership is the culmination of a decade-long friendship. he talked about how each of the company's cloud businesses are growing by double digits and talking about why they are raising their guidance make sure to catch the co-ceos on "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern >> thank you salesforce was down 4% in the regular session. this is a tumble further from the regular session. >> yeah.
it tumbled from the all-time high to put it in context, the guide was miserable. the quarter was fine we get that out of the way where do you buy the stock past resistance becomes support. we should find it here this would be a 14% decline. you will have a huge volume day tomorrow interesting to see if this holds. i think that's your line in the sand >> all that may be moot if you think high valuation stocks are not in vogue where are you on the igb short >> i'm short igb the biggest single component is salesforce it's just under 10%. if you think rates are going up, which i do, because of inflation, then i think even if they put out great numbers -- granted the quarter was good
guidance was disappointing it doesn't really matter when you have a super high multiple and rates go up, it's math there's not more to it it has to come down. i'm staying short. i'm long what i think of the more value, but those got hit today as well. i still like 'em >> tim >> there's so much to chew on here i think this is a really interesting one. if you look at the revenue guidance, it's a tight range that guide down in eps, which was a miss, what does that tell you? are margins getting hit? what are some of the inputs going into whatever they are doing or weighing on profitability. that might be an instructive lesson for what we might see the end of the quarter and into january, into q4 earning season. it's a gap fill from the prior
earnings report. that makes sense you like conspiracy theories we have been talking about that. why did marc promote brett, who is the chair of the board at twitter -- >> i knew you were going to go there. >> here is the thing i think the way that david broke that news, they did not really give twitter a heck of a lot of time i have to think that brett taylor hops on the list to take over as ceo of that company. marc did that deal to bring him -- to keep him there using an important -- it was one of the most respected out there years ago, marc was kicking the tires of buying twitter. i don't know what the end is that looks like a $30 billion market cap company i can see a lot of smart integrations with what twitter does well and salesforce does well. >> what level is twitter trading
at when he was kicking the tires? it didn't happen then. >> probably lower. >> yeah. it's higher now. tim, what do you think the odds of salesforce with twitter are >> look, i think the slack acquisition and the broadening of the platform made sense it made sense using the overpriced currency in the stock. this wouldn't be my conspiracy theory dan is connecting dots that are interesting, especially when you consider the history i think the more important part of this is in the investor day, they talked about a higher margin profile for the business. the street and i think the buy side was looking ing at the fou quarter pipeline for revenues to be higher than what they delivered. it was coming out of an accelerating third quarter 45 times revenue to pre-cat flow, eps is a very, very expensive stock. i think that's what this comes down to. >> we are just getting started
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break it all down. carter >> you know, you point out this single most salient and important end point, up today in a tape that was exceedingly red. no one has to buy or sell. unless you have a margin call. the fact that people chose not to sell apple in and of itself and to buy it, third highest volume day of the year, means a lot. let's look at a chart or two, a table or two and try to pull it all together basically, the first one, apple is essentially a laggard that's just coming to life. the top panel is apple you see it's been ascending. the bottom panel is something all together different apple has been dead flat and underperforming to some extent for the better part of 12 months look at the table that comes next this puts it in context. this table shows the performance, apple had a blow-off peak in september of
2020 those numbers are stark. from september 2, 2020, to present, google is up 73 microsoft up 46. s&p up 30. apple up 23. it's been a real laggard since that blow-off. look at the next slide, data table. what's happened over the past month? the exact opposite tremendous performance from apple. relative strength, one of the great factors in investing is showing us that something is going on three charts an apple chart that picks up the covid low. no judgments or annotations by me next chart, draw some lines. one way to draw the lines, my eye sees, and we are moving above that upper bound the final chart, a short-term chart, it puts it all in context. this is the definition of a breakout, a textbook move to a new high if you look at all the factors that one can look at earnings revisions or evaluation or
balance sheet leverage, over time one of the great factors in investing is relative strength today's relative strength in and of itself is nothing short of shocking >> back to microsoft, carter i couldn't help but to notice the big gains that we saw up 46% and then unchanged over the past month. is that just a rest? is that a positive sign for microsoft? >> microsoft has been a great performer. it's not exhibiting the same characteristics that apple is. i would rather be in microsoft than the s&p i would rather be in microsoft than broker dealers or other cyclical stocks showing real distribution if one had to choose between apple and microsoft, by my work, apple is the winner. >> carter, thank you would you make the same choice, karen? >> well, i have them both.
i don't know i guess not then i have them both i keep them both i think they're both great it's not a terrific answer, but that's my book. >> i guess it's like asking which child you love more. >> exactly i do have a favorite >> dan, will ask you >> just kidding. >> i think the more interesting question -- carter said he would rather own microsoft than the s&p 500. i would rather own the s&p 500 for a lot of what we have been talking about is the poor breadth. we have a lot of stocks that have been marked down. there was a stat about how many stocks -- more than 50% of the s&p 500 are down more than 10% from their recent all-time highs. to me, you have the risk of any one of the two names that have gone straight up, they have gained a trillion dollars in market stock to me, i think there's risk there. if there's any reason to have
any hiccups in these q4 guidance, i would rather not have that risk and be in the s&p. >> it goes to which adventure you choose you outlined a couple of them in terms of you want to be in the reflation or the secular growth trade, because you see economic growth slow down >> well, i would rather be in the reflation trade and call it a value divergence if i may, would you rather -- i would rather have amazon if i look at the underperformers, amazon is up. it withstood tough comps and is in a great place apple has outperformed the s&p by 72% over the last two years you can pick your spots. i like a 2-year run to tell the
full picture apple hasn't underperformed. therefore, i think amazon, which really was so far ahead of everyone early covid, is the name i'm sorry i did that i know i will get in trouble. >> you are not sorry did you it it's done. guy, choose whatever stock you want go ahead microsoft, apple, amazon, s&p. whatever you want. what do you think? >> you are upset at the others so you take it out on me i will play your game correctly. going back to the original i will point this out about apple. this flight to safety, flight to quality, whatever you call it, traded 175 million shares today to put a fine point on what carter mentioned earlier that's more than two times normal volume. what's going on is the fact that people are fleeing clearly the broader market and finding their way into apple if you think the broader market is going to stop going down, then i think you are inclined to take profits in apple. how about them apples? >> nice.
welcome back we have an after hours aletter for you on merck shares popping after emergency use authorization. shares are up now. check out the action in the drug space. vaccine makers, all down today. pfizer the only bright spot. the company has officially requested emergency use authorization for boosters for 16 and 17-year-olds. karen, you are long pfizer >> i'm long a bunch of the big cap pharma mainly, i think if rate goes higher, look for things that are relative value the value in this space is very good pe multiples for pfizer, merck are 12 or 13 times
there's a yield of 3.6 for merck, 2.9 for pfizer. it seems like a good place, an environment where pfizer -- they are to longer going to be the punching bag for politicians when you consider what pfizer has done how much they have helped us with the pandemic. i think they are no longer the punching bag if there's a build back better, we will see, it's watered down somewhat in how much pressure there will be on drug prices for a lot of reasons, i like this space i think pfizer, they have a lot of things, but i think they have now somewhat of an annuity with covid as something we will live with as opposed to something we will get rid of. >> at the same time from moderna, the more biotech area in this sector, it's harder to make the case. >> it is i think moderna's move is a 40%
move in the previous five days it was more cautious in their comments this morning. i think that didn't help on the headline i think, obviously, at is point, a month ago there was a lot of questions and the stock was playing out an existential battle with, what do they do beyond covid i think that's really the question here. the multiple makes no sense based upon the current pipelines and earnings power it's the view that these -- look, this brilliant company that was on the leading edge of solving or at least helping us cope with this pandemic is certainly going to be there for the next one again, look at the move the stock had. that's what i think today was about. for get teflon trades. diamond trades are in vogue. more on today's crude collapse oil hitting a three-month low as markets sold off how shou y tdeldoura ing epic! so we're giving every business,
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see where ark stands on names in tech and emerging world of electric cars. this is your chance to ask questions. sign up now. on a day like today, we look for opportunity here on "fast money. you heard us call them teflon trades what about diamonds, as in diamond hand trades. tim, what's your pick? >> it's nike look what this company has done throughout the years they have done it for a couple reasons. one is because they have brands, pricing power. many cases, they control their distribution then they have the innovation. then they have the tailwinds of some trends around fitness and wellness and on both sides of the world, they are dominating and executing. you had an opportunity to sell this stock, whether it was around supply constraints or
around shutdown of vietnam factories and what that might have meant if you did that, you probably missed a 20% move higher in the stock. back near all-time highs trades at a premium multiple it should trade at a premium multiple it's one of the most iconic and well-known consumer brands in the world. a really well-run company. i stay there >> karen, what's your pick >> mine is united rental they had excellent he we earnin last month wait, there will be a crappy day. i chose today. it peaked at 415 intraday on the infrastructure bilk passed that's happening the infrastructure bill is happening. also, if you think about supply chain issues, they have machines they get paid a daily rate if there's inflation, they get paid higher daily rates.
that's more cash flow to the bottom line for them i think having come in $80 from that peak which is probably too high, it's a very nice place to own it they are near the bottom of where they want to be. they have less debt. they would like to have more we will see them probably do significant buybacks with their excess cash flow that's my pick diamonds are a girl's best friend i hope uri is friendly to me. >> they are a guy's best friend for sure what's your diamond hand pick, guy? >> a few weeks ago, terry duffy, another stud, announced on our show that deal they did with google imitation, the greatest form of flattery an hour or so, nasdaq announced a deal with amazon not that far off a high. it will grind higher cme is in the same category. best in show
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since march of 2020. what do you make of the action, tim? we go from releasing oil from the spr to worried about demand. >> yeah. i wasn't a fan of that release i think on some level it really showed structurally where we may still have supply issues i'm not worried about demand i guess you have a dynamic here with covid that i realize we have had headwinds, but demand is not the issue we talked about biden's policy on energy and why that's great for fossil fuel. it may not be great for the future but it worked in energy's favor. you are down almost 20% on brent. november hasn't traded through the 200 as it did today. i don't think you need to buy it but energy is oversold here. i would look for my spot. >> let's get to mike what did you see play out in the options market in energy >> we saw a lot. there were a lot of energy names
well above average daily volume. one of the ones was marathon petroleum. that one traded more than three times its average daily put volume that was mostly the result of heavy activity in the december 10th weekly 60 strike puts we saw 8270 trading for just over $1.90 there were a couple of institutional opening buyers in that betting the weakness could continue through the end of next week to tim's point, iwould note that we saw people rolling their calls down we saw above average volume. some people trying to take advantage of the decline to essentially position their strikes lower for a rebound. >> thanks. tune in to the full show friday 5:30 i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh.
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i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com final trade, tim >> boeing, this is a good time and the china certification is coming boeing >> karen >> i'm sticking with diamond hand trade
uri, could go higher but i will be happy to own it from this price. >> dan >> intel >> guy >> bristol myers >> thanks for watching "fast riw my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i will come and help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money welcome to comkraamerica today's decline came dow