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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 24, 2021 6:00am-9:00am EST

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to the butterball help line. "squawk box" begins right now. >> joe is off today but markets are open this comes after a mixed day in the markets yesterday. this was up by half a perfect that nasdaq continues to see
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pressure s&p futures down by 19 the tech stocks continue to see pressure. the 10-year yielding it is the two-year that has yielded. all the way up to 0.6% the highest yield since march of 2020 russell 2000 this has been pretty interesting. now five days in a row that have been down and under pressure maybe handling it a bit more easily at the highest close since july
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of 2020. they've closed at the lowest level or if bitcoin has stolen thunder. >> we'll take a look we are right around there talking about the gap shares down sharply gap has been hit by higher problems nordstrom also getting hit hard.
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earnings missing the wall street consensus apparel and shoes hit stronger te te terry lundgren will join us. i always like to guess what suit and tie he's wearing >> is this a supply chain issue to sounds like a release of
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their calls whether they'll go back to those channels for the folks that have been spending their time in the stores on a relative basis, it is different also to some extent, the shift of how we are behaving gap has been complicated nordstrom is a little different. >> nordstrom's did say their sales are below prepandemic it is different from what we've seen there are definite winners and losers better able to manage some of those. nordstrom shares down 27% hp
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shares rise. beating what the street was expecting. saying consumer and business demand for printers remain what they are calling robust shares up 7.5%. e elon musk off load another $1 billion shares part of a plan to off expire stock options. he's off loaded $10 million. right now, tesla shares off by 1.3% news of the tesla factory in
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texas. the company is looking to wram p up construction on several major elements in the giga factory that will eventually produce tesla cyber trucks and model 3 and y vehicles >> we'll have a chance to talk to cathie woods. she's been selling as well but i believe she was selling in part due to the size and scope. >> you know what is interesting. it made people stand up and take notice >> why prices went up. even when president biden
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with xfinity mobile. so you can go all out on gifts for the family - during our best wireless deal of the year... the xfinity black friday sales event. click, call or visit a store today. good morning let's take a quick look at the futures. still close to 3.5 hours before
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the markets open the dow off 174, s&p off about 18 points. crypto sitting around 57,000 56,468 right about now everything off about 2%. doj a little more, becky history made overnight nasa sent the first of its kind test mission with the goal of deploying an asteroid. it took off from van den berg in california this will hit next fall.
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it is unmanned it is the rocket just blasting into it. the way they've laid this out is that this is the only natural disaster we could try to stop, so let's get some practice on it >> i just saw a screening of a movie coming up. an adam k movie called "don't look up" starring leonardo and jennifer lawrence. it is basically about this but a metafore >> an asteroid >> i don't want to give it away. it is a comet. it is big and coming at the
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planet it is hilarious. >> so liv tyler and ben affleck all over again >> no. it is a mockery of our whole life in so manyways. it is kind of hilarious. in the meantime, this is not being taken hilariously in china, jamie dimon raising eyebrows with tongue and cheek comments see if he gets bleeped he told a group about a joke he made on a recent visit to hong kong saying the bank hopes to be in ch china a long time. china communist party is celebrating 100 years and he
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jokes that so is jp morgan and he says, i bet we'll last longer we'll see what they think of mr. dimon's humor. >> funny here not there. you said yesterday, elon musk can get away with saying anything that other ceos would never be able to say >> i think jamie would get away with this. >> if you know him it is a joke lighten up let's get to energy prices and the global market reaction to release oil proo free serves and other countries. brian sullivan joins us. this is the first time we've
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seen a coordinated release the first time this is released in this manner or for this reason >> they have the libyan civil war where some countries got on board. it is the code nated not emergency. also designed to do something the spr has never talked about doing which is to lower prices why didn't this lower prices i would argue two things one, it kind of did. oil prices fell $2 a barrel. also, i think it is important to note, the spr is not there to lower prices it is there, all of this sludgy oil stuck in sault caves
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we had a wall graphic up where we showed all the times we had a sale or swap that was katrina and ivan. that's it. framing it it is not a hurricane or a war whachlt do we call this release. really $50 million was the headline 32 million new barrels important to note those were going to be swapped. they were exchanges. they are going to give it to, say, exxon, valero those will return the oil at some date. with extra barrels kind of like interest whether or not that occurs at
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what time. i spent all day texting and talking to oil executives and ceos they all told me they are a little confused. the president wants higher production the same day, you have a letter basically saying, you know, threatening action and asking for prices asking all these questions and feeling they are sort of under the gun on one hand and to be the good guys and pump more oil on the other hand. there is a lot going on in the oil markets. it didn't lower prices it would in the future the spr was not designed to lower prices it should be noted a lot of the oil is sort of heavy, sour splujy stuff
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it may not even be the oil that american producerswant you guys at home, i've got a 5 gallon racing jug. i use it for lawn mowers and things i have used it for a kgenerator.
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gas goes bad it is oil sitting in actual caves in the ground. it gets messi and dirty but it will work. the strategic petroleum reserve is just that you don't want to need it or use it but it is a last refuge but the oil is kind of nasty >> we've got to run but when you talk about how the oil prices have come down a big part of it with the demand and those cases in europe and talking about the
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lockdown there in your previous conversation >> do you know the difference of a comet and asteroid only in the asteroid belt. a comet is anywhere in orbit the asteroid has to reside in
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the asteroid belt. >> out nerding us. good job happy thanksgiving we'll see you later. >> when we come back, covid concerns what all americans should know about staying safe this thanksgiving tomorrow, a market holiday we won't be on live tv but we will have a new episode of our will have a new episode of our podcas ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay...
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making headlines hundreds of google employees have signed a manifesto. asking the tech giant to restrakt the mandate and enact a new one inclusive of all googlers they've asked employees to upload vaccination status by december 3 google has already said all employees that work directly or indirectly with government contracts must be vaccinated even if working from home. i spoke to a ceo yesterday they dug into it in a way i've never heard before they are dealing with, should we vaccinate? do testing the ceo was saying he originally wanted to do testing, the cost
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is actually astro nom call the cost of running the testing program. one idea that you could legally force the cost of the testing to the employee even if you do that, for hourly workers, you have to pay them for the time it takes to go get tested effectively, we are trying to solve for 15% of the population that we think is doing the wrong thing to begin with. it was fascinating understanding the dynamics and more companies where you force the issue mib now as a function of cost. >> i think the testing cost from
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what i've heard at $100 a pop. if you are testing once a week some a couple times a week that adds up quickly i understand doing it through the pandemic when there weren't options and potential curative questions. it is a huge question changing almost on a weekly basis >> they are trying to solve for the 85% of the people that want to come to the office that are vaccinated and want to feel safe there. testing once a week may not even solve that problem if you are trying to make people feel comfortable that everything is good to good. it was very interesting to get into what is going on inside the
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board room right now >> because of privacy issues even if somebody tests positive, you are not going to know about it if you are exposed you don't even find out in these situations if you are a worker who is supposed to feel comfortable germany is expected to make a decision whether to impose tougher covid restrictions the country could even go with another full lockdown as it deals with record daily infections and mounting numbers in hospitals in the states, concerns about a rise in covid cases being tied to the holiday >> with it now, former white house director we are looking at europe and
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wondering, they are five weeks ahead of us. what do you think here >> it is not necessarily a different situation but different variables that went into germany's numbers leading to pretty strict lockdowns mandates and protests in the streets. not too dissimilar with germany, what has been interesting what we've hoped to see here, they are not seeing the increase of deaths with hospitalizations that is for the 2/3s vax nccinad you do have enough people not vaccinated and a rise of breakthrough infections. we are in our fourth wave. they are in their fourth wave. we are watching a little bit of
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a catchup from delta they kind of now have a combination of colder weather and lower vaccination rates. we hope to avert the peaks they are experiencing of the magnitude. the next several weeks, we will tell >> i can't imagine it happening. we've moved on to a great extent in the buffalo area, they are reinstating mask mandates because their hospitals are 90% full it is the first city in new york state do that. you'll see hospitals filling up again. >> seeing it in parts of new jersey and the mid-atlantic.
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>> hospitalizations in relation to the positivity rates has changed in large part to testing. that is not necessarily leading to numbers of cases. we probably have more cases than werealize. it feels those vaccinated are being punished for those unvaccinated i think it is probably more responsible to think of how we can at least left people know. like new york city, let people know the penetration of vaccination and let people make
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decisions. where you don't have options, you'll think about masks i hope by the spring, this becomes something not necessarily of halting activity and we ask can understand. i expect i'll probably get covid at some point in the next several years but i won't have the detrimental effects. >> just like you expect you'll get the flu at some point. what about thanksgiving? we've seen some pretty incredible things over the last several weeks. millions of kids under the age of 11 who have gotten their first shots. millions getting their booster shots. maybe that helps with
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widespread >> we look back to the winter surge, we know the high vaccination rate of persons over the age of 65 made a huge difference one in four new infections is in children that can be a driver having those vaccinated can be helpful for others, i'm been thinking of how to keep the sorkin the patel households safe keeping the ventilation, exhaust fans like in the bathrooms and over ovovans.
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having the window open and the exhaust fans up can help with the rate you said we should all expect to get covid at some point. i always thought if i could avoid it until april april being when i think there will be the wide availability of the pfizer or the amemerck pillt walgreens or something what do you think whether you
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should go get regeneron or not many saying, if you get covid, that's the first thing you should do. it used to by it was hard to get. nows it more available >> it is i think you are bringing up a point that many people including myself have failed to emphasize. the antibodies and the hease of administration we are not putting people in hospital infusion chairs we are talking about a one-time injection. this can be a game changer it comes after a diagnosis and positive pcr test. i encourage people after thanksgiving to get those pyrs and we can immediately refer
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them in or patient self-referral, you don't have to go to a doctor i encourage you not to wait. apply to the population and to teens and children as well we can do this much more broadly. >> thank you for educating us as always >> when we come back, phil will join us live from chicago where it will get busy soon. as we head to the break, a look at yesterday's winners and losers
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♪ ♪ cases of anxiety in young adults are rising as experts warn of the effects on well-being caused by the pandemic. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to "squawk box. the day before thanksgiving, historically one of the busiest travel days of the year.
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will that be the case this year? for that, phil lebeau joins us it is pretty busy behind you >> it is this is the best chance we are going to see for two years for the total number of people screened by the tsa to eclipse the same day back in 2019. woo el get close in terms of the number of people the best news is, no cancellations. great weather across the country. when you look at this weekend. this is exactly what the airlines needed. they needed a clean start to the travel season. five straight days we've had of more than 2 million people being screen look at the passenger levels they've improved
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down to 13% compared to the same time of 2019 in november, down 19%. back in october, down 21%. clearly, you are seeing more people flying. the bad news here, jet fuel, up 70% compared to a year ago that's going to be hard for any airline to make up they are not yet at the 2019 level. not yet at 11% you look at the big four, don't be surprised if you see these not report a profit. they are going to post some sort of a loss. not a huge one they will continue to adjust the cost for available seat mile has come up dramatically as airlines have ramped up their
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hiring and schedule. depending on what happens with covid until into 2022. there may be a few profitable in 24 don't be surprised if we see some losses posted back to you. >> we'll cross our fingers when we come back, the fate of president biden's spending bill and how congress will pay for it the great debate in washington is next. next hour, cathie wood will be our special guest. stay tuned this is cnbc hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like ones that re-opened!
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start discussing the build back better bill. some still have questions over tax hikes and debt romney and rudio and advisors, good morning to both of you curious where you think this is headed where do you think manchin and sinema will go along with did? >> i do think we'll see a plan come out of the senate and sent back over to the house and the president. roughly 90% offer so of the bill was prenegotiated with the
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senate those things on the edge will have to fall off i recognize that might be a sticking point overall, i thinks that about a lot of prenegotiation and signals a bill back to the senate and house >> if that's the case, what do you think it really looks like if you are a betting person. not what you want but what you think it will be >> i do think we'll see some pairing back the reenltents will show you the bill increases i think there will be some changes it will be difficult for these
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moderate democrats it is not paid for are we reall going to be bumping trillions into our economy >> what do you think about the tax front and how this will get reworked if at all. i'll throw one thing out at you is carried interest in the private equity world i don't understand why it has not been touched i will note, the president planning to stay at rubenstiens
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house. he's totally against private equity doesn't this expose the whole idea >> look, if i had to be queen for a day and decide whether or not to include carried interest, i would. that's not where the negative oern oceanation has fallen i agree with loni. i think this build back better plan is paid for those back taxes are due when they go down from the salt taxes and threshold would have a much
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better impact overall on the bottom line. the reality that the american people set sending their children to medicare and precare. all of those dollars are right back to the economy. we are going to result in the overhaul >> i continue to be concerned about the inflation and spending you see in this bill comes in the short term estimates are probably more favorable to democrats so this is a serious problem for the economy and growth of
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government i expect to see these changes in the coming weeks >> happy thanksgiving. thanks for joining us. >> when we come back if you are backerly. getting a start to your perfect for you, back by popular demand from our loyal "squawk" viewers. we got a live visit to the butterball turkey talk line. the phones are ready, lighting up alrdyea we will bring you there when "squawk box" comes right back. check out that bird. >>
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. if you need a little help in the kitchen this holiday, butterball has you covered the turkey talk line is making its 40th year of guiding folks through the turkey prep a. turkey talk line expert joins us right now from the talk line headquarters in illinois bill, it's great to see you back in the office this year. last year, you guys were all
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working from home. this team you are in the office taking these calls how are things going so far? >> it's good to be with you again. this year, we are back in the office we have three-quarters in the office some are still working at home i know last year when i did the show, this is our butterball kitchen. we are pleased and welcome today. we have grate items. we're excited for thanksgiving it's our busiest time of year. i was thinking about this last night, we get excited. everybody loves their job. we all work on thanksgiving day. so we're ready to help any cook out there whether you are experienced or not >> phil, one of the things we've heard is about shortages for just about everything, including turkeys. has there been a shortage of turkeys this year? have they been hard to come by >> we haven't experienced it here butterball begins the planning process for next year, they forecast what the need is going to be when they produce turkeys
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based on that so we have gone ahead with our plan. i know locally here in the chicago area, we were talking about it this morning. we see a lot of turkeys out there in the stores from smaller turkeys to larger turkeys and really good sales prices so it remains a good bargain we try to get them out everywhere so everybody can enjoy thanksgiving >> yesterday when we talked to you, there were people doing a turkey breast. they were having smaller dinner parties. maybe their own immediate family who was there. my guess is this year you are getting calls about cooking the full birds again and maybe bicker birds >> we are. we might have said bigger is better don't be afraid to go big. we have a lot of turkeys out there that are large the great things is if you don't eat it all, you have left joemplts there's things you can do with leftovers, such as some of the items i have up here that we've developed in concertwith our
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40th anniversary we've developed the butterball turkey taste kitchen we've taken that to tiktok we have developed some new recipes with that. it's pretty cool we've learned that 83% of folks turn to social media for res preparation. that can be facebook or twitter. now tiktok, too much >> did you hire more people to deal with the additional social media platforms? are you able take the same crew and mix it up and send it out on all these different platforms? >> we were able to have same crew we have people designated for each different area. but it's really been a collaborative effort across, that itself the freight thing about the talk line. in our staff are 50 people we have people professionals in all different aspects. we have people that are registered dieticians, food
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stylists, culinary educators so we cover the range it helps us in the kitchen and develop new things and get out the profits. >> we have to run. tell me your best idea for turkey left jaefrs >> i think it's the turkey waffle sandwich. that's down here, you take a watch him made of stuffing you fill it with everything you see you have left over, green beans, turkey in there, cranberry, sweet potato. it's a fantastic, everybody that's tried it loves it check out tiktok. >> we will check it out. happy thanksgiving, thank you for being with us this year. >> happy thanksgiving to you bye-bye. >> bye >> coming up, our news maker of the morning, well followed investor kathy wood will be our guest. why she is buying, selling and why, we will talk about so many of the big stocks, zoom, tesla,
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everything else. stay tuned we are live from the nasdaq market site in time's square two big hours ahead. tv: mount everest, the tallest mountain on the face of the earth. keep dreaming. [coins clinking in jar] ♪ you can get it if you really want it, by jimmy cliff ♪ ♪ [suitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [gusts of wind] [ding]
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wall street is set for a lower open ahead of the last full trading day this week. with the markets closed for thanksgiving tomorrow and a half day scheduling scheduled for friday we're get you ahead of the opening bell on wall street.
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plus an interview with arc ceo cathie wood and what stocks she is buying now. plus, shoppers are getting ready to walk off the turkey hangover and hit the scores. we will get an early preview of what this holiday season will look like with the retailers the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now >> good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live in the nasdaq markets in time's square i'm andrew ross sorkin, along with becky quick joe is off for this thanksgiving right now it looks like the dow is off, the nasdaq opened down as well 32 points down, the s&p 500 down about nine points
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a couple headlines, shares of nordstrom and gap plunging in pre-market trade both come up short in the bottom line earnings reports. nordstrom was hit hard by rising labor charges and gap faces supply chain issues largely due to factories in vietnam, where 30% of the merchandise is made meantime, many travellers will be hitting the road for the thanksgiving holiday as they already know, they will be paying a lot more for gas at the pump aaa has the average price at $3.40 per gallon up 61% from a year ago meantime, the white house asking to lift a stay on its covid-19 vaccine mandate for businesses with at least 100 employees. the administration says delaying the rules could lead to
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thousands of hospitalizations and deaths you may remember >> dom chu is taking a look at the morning movers happy thanksgiving eve. >> happy thanksgiving eve, becky, andrew. it's always good to be with you guys before thanksgiving just like the last few moments or so here, within the last ten or 15 minutes, we got earnings reports at least from deer this morning. this is a big bellwhether-type stock with farm equipment and that sort of thing so if you look at deere shares it was a mixed report. reporting earnings came in better than expectations analysts were a slight miss. what happened was farm equipment demand, combines, tractors was robust and helped offset the labor issues with the strike
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deere shares are up 32%. we are 12% below the highs a few months ago also, a couple earnings reports from after the bell yesterday. we talked about some of the big plunges in the apparel retailers. hp inc. is up 6% computer hardware, pcs demand is still there and corporate computers are driving shares higher. also a forecast above expectation, on the technology side to the downside thick ch out, design software. it comes out with better-than-expected frosts. those shares are down 14%. andrew mentioned the plunge in gap, in nordstrom's. it's probably having a bit of a
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ripple effect on the restail tail side of things. on the s&p 500, some of the bigger decliners, volatility, tjx companies down 1.5%. the nike, ralph lauren, vf corporation down a half a percent. keep an eye on those. >> dom, when we sigh plunge, we we're not exaggerating maybe you mean 8%, 10%, 12%. this is serious damage done to these names. i think people realize there will be some big winners and losers whether you can get product and people there how do you handle those things not all are considered equal at this point you may have a strong consumer,
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not everyone will benefit. >> that's the issue. even yesterday we saw the divergence in stores like dick's, kohl's, some were generally positive overall the supply cane issues continue to dog investors right now they want to know if there is any kind of clarity, what they are trying to do is handicap the odds resolving themselves in the coming quarters. right now, it's been a good run albeit for consumer names. as you see these profits being taken, it is about the concern as you point out about the supply canes the demand is there. at least we think it's there maybe it's there whether or not these companies can sell the product to meet that demand is a real issue. it's fascinating to watch those names especially on the consumer side of things remember, nike kind of hint to those thichlgs adidas did. so, we'll see what happens.
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>> we'll see what happens later this morning. in the meantime, let's go over to diana olick with the latest mortgages >> we are seeing a huge demand as we get into the slow holiday season mortgage applications rose 5% from the previous week according to mortgage bankers association, still 4% from a yeemplg last year was off the rails when it came to demand that was the 30 straight weekly dane buyers may be rushing in because they're concerned mortgage rates will move higher than they have in the past month. take a look at that. they rose last week for conforming loan balances increased to 3.24% from 3.20% for loans with 20% down payments reits were 32% basis points from a year ago they were last week flat, rising just 0.4% from the week before
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they were 34% from the same year ago. moving ahead, rates are up ten basis points from last friday. that is not going to help home buyers in this ever pricier market we fet monthly read on new home sales 10:00 a.m. we'll see if prices are easing up at all, becky, i seriously doubt it. >> i doubt it, into. you have that backlog of buyers who haven't been able to find a home either. maybe they were bidding, getting outbid and out there looking around happy thanksgiving great to see you. >> you too, too. thank you. coming up, right after the break, the nasdaq on a two-day slide as worries about interest rate inflations end. the supply chain issues continue to persist. we will speak to ark ceo cathie wood. "squawk box" returns live from the nasdaq markets set in time's
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etf. s for an exclusive interview, ark ceo cathie wood. it's been less of a holiday season i imagine for your fun but also across the board when you look at what's happening with some of these high flyers i'm curious how you are seeing the market right now in. >> you know, it's actually feeling a little bit like it did during the coronavirus when we were beating the drum saying innovation solves problems, innovation solves problems that turned out to be a great call we have a lot of problems still from the coronavirus, supply chain problems, labor shortages, so forth innovation is helping to solve those problems i'd like to focus on something going on in the macroworld i don't think people have picked up on. i think beer getting it with nordstrom and gap.
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in the third quarter real gdp growth was up 2% all of that increase was in inventories, real final sales actually were down a bit now listening to nordstrom last fight, their sales are down, if you compare to this time in 2019 but their inventories are up 13%. gap same thing sales are down, again wear comparing to third quarter '19 and now they're saying inventories will be up 7-to-8% in the fourth quarter. so i think we are experiencing the beginnings of an inventory problem here >> an inventory problem. i want to talk to you about a couple stocks, though, one is zoom we will have the cfo of zoom on in a little bit. you have been loading up on zoom as the stock has continued to fall why in. >> yes we believe that for the first time in decades that the
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communications system of the world is going to be replaced. innovation solves problems many people think of zoom simply as a video chat service. it is not. it is becoming a unified communications system. and that the old ones, i guess the old once, cisco and polycom would be among them. they're going to be ripped out because ift new hybrid world, we can't have the late ency problems and the performance problems that they have. i know that i feel when i am financial to be on a call, a video call, i am relieved it's zoom because i know it's going to work many others don't. so the communications part of the tech stack is the largest. it's $1.5 trillion global lip. zoom is a $4 billion revenue company right now. some we think it has miles to go one other thing, last year, zoom
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sales in this past quarter were up about 360% as we were in the middle of the coronavirus crisis this year, expectations for the fourth quarter against the toughest compareer last year are up 19% their own guidance and that is a seasonally weak quarter for them so, i am fairly amazed that they are showing increases at all on top of that 360% burst so i don't know what other analysts are thinking. i think this is one of the most important communications companies to come along in many decades. >> agi agree in terms of how eay it is to use in my life. i admit, i don't pay for it. i'm a consumer who uses it for free most of the time. big companies are using
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microsoft teams and cisco. is there enough for all of these companies to kind of win and still make gains or are you convinced they will win at the expense of companies like cisco? do you make any bets, go long some and short cisco or the others >> well, we aren't, we're long only at least at the moment, and, yes, we do think it's at the expense of the old telecom equipment companies. and as i mentioned, this is a $1.5 trillion category we haven't ripped and replaced for 20, 30 years this is a very big replacement cycle. we are at the very beginning of it. >> real quick, because you said at the moment you are long only. do you have any plans or thoughts about adding short positions to some, one or more versions of your funds >> well, we have internally for
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employees only, we're testing out a portfolio, but it's really ark on steroids if you can believe that we want to test it out on ourselves first and make sure that everybody keeps their eye on that five-year investment time horizon which is our time horizon and doesn't pay attention to the day-to-day. because what we would be doing is shorting stocks that are in the big benchmarks and when we get into a riskoff situation, what happens is portfolio managers generally run back to those stocks, get closer to their benchmarks, they dump our stocks, which are a small part of benchmarks or not in benchmarks a great opportunity for us these last few days to pick up on those stocks it's simply a risk-off move to get closer to benchmarks, by the way, we think benchmarks are where the risks are longer term.
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they're filling up with value traps, those companies that have done very well historically, but are going to be disintermediatated and disrupted by the massive amount of innation is taking place, to give you one number there. right now, we believe innovation, truly disrupted innovation is priced in the global marketplace, public markets at roughly somewhere between 10 and $15 trillion. in ten years, we believe that number will be 200 trillion. so it will go from a little more than 10% of global equity market caps to what we believe could be more than half that's how much disruption is evolving thanks to dna sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, all of which are converging, converging, so that s-curves will be heeding s-curves we're on the threshold of the
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most innovative period in history, bar none. you have to go back to early 1,900s, telephone, electricity, automobile to see anything like it. >> you just mentioned that this new thing you are testing in-house, the idea of doing shorts, too, would be like ark on steroids. i think of it being on steroids. if you would do this, you would potentially see super big wins if you were right on the long and the short. if the thesis didn't work out, it seems like it can double the losses, too. as you mentioned, people run away from the stocks you don't like and go to the benchmarks, if the companies did that again, you saw that, going against you on both side of it is is that why you are testing it out in-house? >> yes this five-year investment time horizon is critical the next five-to-ten years we think are going to be spectacular. will there be volatility as you say ark already is a volatile
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strategy and that is why we say, keep your eye on the prize, five years the world will look nothing like it looks today and we're invested in all of the disruptors, the winners that are going to disrupt the traditional world order. >> i want to is ask you about a stock that's obviously one of your biggest holdings, something everybody focuses on, not five years, but 24 hours ago, in fact, elon musk continues to sell shares in tesla i'm curious what you think of that and what you think of that position i know you had sold some shares earlier. where are you on tesla in. >> yeah. well, you know, most of his net worth or more than all of his net worth given the debt that he has probably is in tesla and spacex i would bet that any financial adviser would say you have got to diversify now, he went through a near
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death experience in '08. he knows that things can go wrong and so and he also has big tax bills. so understand it, take profits, there is nothing wrong with taking profits he still is one of the biggest shareholders of the company. is >> what did you think of the twitter poll on whether he should sell? >> yeah, i pound it interesting that the answer was on balance yes. everybody understands this necessary of diversification, diversification, diversification, having gone through '08/'09, that was the biggest lesson learned the fact that he didn't diverse faye for such a long time was taking a big, big personal risk. >> have you followed this battle it appears to be between j. p. dimon and j.p. morgan suing tesla overpayments they say they are due? are you taking sides in that in. >> i'm not taking side, because
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i haven't read through the legal documents. sure, i think it's something like 130 or there are 160 million, which if this were to go to court and tesla were to lose, it would be a chunk of change but you know, they have so much cash on their balance sheet right now unlike two years ago, that this would be a one-time writeoff and that would be it. so we tend to not pay too much attention to the very short term. >> i don't know if you heard becky and i talking in the 6:00 hour we were talking rivian and lucid and so many other stocks and how you think about them relative to a tesla? >> yes whenever and we've met with both and, obviously, we think they are validating the movement towards electric vehicles, which is moving into, moving into an act sell rated rate now.
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so, and we like their vehicles what they are not doing to the best of our knowledge is going after the autonomous opportunity. we think transportation is going autonomous and that it will be electric at the same the robo-taxis effectively will be commoditized vehicles, getting people from point a to point b as quickly and safely as possible that's why you see tesla, you know, with its car lineup, you know, it really doesn't look like the tesla has changed that much from a design it has from a technology point of view, but not so much from a design point of view and i think elon and team are getting ready for this robo-take world. >> hey, i love your optimism and your ability to kind of look at the road and look at innovation and see these things but a part of the reason there have been so many innovation, there are all these new companies out there is there is so much luck widity at this point. innovation happens in spits and
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spurts it doesn't always match straight ahead, there are all sorts of external factors that can get in the way. i wonder what you worry about, what could happen that could shut down some of that innovation or put it off or just mean even if they're innovating, the market is not going to appreciate it anyway because there are other problems that happen, a recession, something like that. would that kind of blow up your trading strategy, even if companies are innovating, they may not be rewarded in the market. >> troubled times actually accelerates innovation we can see all the problems we have right now with the supply chain, which we think are unwinding, but with labor shortages, with foreign exchange, foreign exchange volatility, that will push people more towards crypto longer term, we believe. which itself is volatile but it's a rules-based monetary policy so we think troubled times actually accelerate innovation
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so we are beating that drum last year it's certainly worked out. we're beating the trum again because we still have pa lot of problems and here's how our strategy would be heard it would be the strategy not what's going on with innovation. >> right. >> it is -- if we were to go into a major inflationary spiral and interest rates went up dramatically as well, then higher multiple stocks would be heard and long duration stocks, innovation stocks would be heard. you need to have this five-to-ten year horizon, we think inflation we're moving into a deflationary environment, not inflationary this call is a very important call and we have been watching inventories and i think this is the beginning of the cyclical, this cyclical correction that we're going to see in inventories and commodity prices we're already seeing iron ore
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down 50%, the baltic freight index is down more than 50%. many people are still focused on oil, which because of supply issues more than demand issues has been very strong against our expectations but there are prices that are crack out there. and we think it's going to become more broad-based during the next three-to-six months. >> meaning you don't think the fed will have as to move more quickly, maybe it doesn't cut off the supply quick lip troubled times may increase innovation it doesn't mean it will be rewarded by the market that wasn't the case during the pandemic we saw it pay off in a big way if you went back to 2008, 2009, it wouldn't have necessarily led to the same thing. the end is what happens to the markets. how much money there is to finance this stuff >> sure, what you find with our strategy is during a time like '08/'09, we got hit harder in
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the early stages we bottomed out from a relative performance point of view in november of '08 and the market continued to decline through march or into march of '09 what was happening then was the new leadership, which is an old-time saying, new leadership shows up in the later stage of a bear market. so that's typically what happens to us. >> hey, jackie, two other quick questions. i wanted to ask you about, i want to go back to tesla for a second, maybe not tesla, autonomous cars. there are reports apple introduced an autonomous vehicle starting in 2025 i'm curious whether you think that is a good bet and an easy bet to make now? also given where they are as a stock? >> yeah. well, they've had a lot of management turnover. we have been watching apple very carefully for years now. because what is an autonomous vehicle? it's the ultimate mobile device.
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this should have been apple's market apple should have bought tesla when they were given the opportunity. we're happy they didn't. but this is very hard work and with all the management turnover, we'd be surprised if they're able pull it off that quickly. we've seen how difficult i mean elon is the first to say, this is really hard and we're in the business of manufacturing factories. well, tesla is vertically integrative, which is really important when it comes to robo-taxis, artificial inteljeps, demand, at least in the early stages, i don't know if outsourcing to another firm will work for ap until this case >> what do you think of the price action separately on bit bitcoin? we're now sitting in the 5600 range.
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it's come off its highs. are you buying more? >> well, we have been a net buyer and we pittsburgh our spots over time. we do not buy on spikes. wone of the things we're wondering, if we're right on deflation as opposed to inflation. there are many that hold bitcoin as an inflation hedge. now we think that it's still an important asset class new mon etary system watch what's going on in el salvador but there may 'some people who sell at the margin, if we're right, inflation is coming down, less of a worry. however, we think longer term it is as important an asset to protect against counterparty risk in the case of an '08/'09 type of meltdown it is also a very important asset class to protect against
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confiscation of wealth other than inflation in other countries, there are corrupt regimes and so we believe there is going to be a very important place for bitcoin as a rule of space, global, private, monetary system, the likes of which we've never seen. >> in terms of where we are right now, are you saying it's a great entry point for people for ourselves you think only people look and think 53,000 is some dined of new threshold, so maybe it falls a little farther? they think it's about to pop up again, after thanksgiving, everyone will sit around the thanksgiving table talking about bitcoin again? >> our crypto analyst, crypt to lead has developed on-chain analytics with others in the industry, which are actually flashing more green than red i can't tell you what we're
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doing the on a political day on balance, we go through them quite often at least once a week, they are flashing more green than red, i would be more bullish rather than bearish. >> right now the divergence between the performance of your funds and the indexes, the delta is spreading on the negative side i'm curious how that affects your thinking. i am sure you are optimistic about the markets and what will happen to your fund over time. does it change your abilities to buy and sell certain things? and do you worry or are you concerned that there will be investors who are going to sell in these moments >> my worry is more for them than for us. i get very unsettled when i see people selling at what i know are bargain basement prices.
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just to give you a sense of that we do five-the year forecasts for ebitda we consume massive multiple compression from this moment on to five years out. so, all of our stocks, or most of them will have fang-like multiples, which is a mature growth company with that assumption, we at our peak in mid-february, we were able to say that our portfolios would deliver. if our estimates are correct, a 15% compound annual rate of return over the next five years. so double over the next five years. with this correction and some of the increased estimates we are now using, based on fundamental also, not at all on valuation. we now see, you know, a quad drumle over the next five years
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in our portfolio that's a 33% compound rate of return i have not seen it higher than this than one other time and i believe it was the beginning of 2019, right after the 2018 meltdown in the fourth quarter i think that number was 42% at a compound annual rate so we're, our optimism and confidence has increased in here, not decreased. >> i hope you are right. we look forward to progress. happy thanksgiving. >> thank you, thanks so much when we come back, much more on the retail wreckage that we are seeing this morning and beyond we've got former macy's ceo ter relund grun with the retail space. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what year did the butterball turkey talk line make its debut? x"e answer when cnbc "squawk
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. welcome back to "squawk box" the retail resurgence hitting
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major road blocks this week with several retailers plunging on the back of results. what happened? something changing fundamentally, just as the biggest year is two days away, courtney reagan joins us with more what is happening here >> hey, the retail reports seem to be a 180 from last week's i think there can be opportunity in the wreck am. so best buy reported a strong quarter in many aspects, margins were compressed from higher costs, related to labor, supply chain and organized retail crime. inventory is up year over year, ceo corey barry acknowledged supply chain compression in some categories there is worry about waning demand, broadly, shares fell 12% on the back of those results, dig's sporting goods shares lost 4% after posting a really strong quarter comparable sales six
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times the forecast they fountain out that best buy historically are along the firms this time of the year through year end and best buy usually outperforms starting in february it recommends a buy on the weakness, nordstrom's and gap hit by significantly higher costs of labor and suffer supply cane issues, these are the issues right now also, neither are managed as well as our competitors did. after hours, nordstrom shares plunged 43%. gap lost 16% gap said despite its mitigation efforts, it didn't have enough medicine, nordstrom felt that, too, in certain categories and its rack business suffered from a lack of inventory, less is flowing to the off price arm when those same brands are selling at full price. if you think gap and nordstrom's can course correct in time to take advantage of this strong consumer environment, consider
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the sell-off a promotional price. becky. >> excellent analysis. we will dive in on a closer look at retail. we want to welcome terry lundgren, the ceo and chairman is now the ceo of advisers we look forward to these visits around the holidays. we got to dive in, first of all to nordstrom and make it into nordstrom and gap and what this is telling us. because this is a very different story from retailers we heard from last week, including macy's >> i agree, i think that reporter did a nice job of covering what happened there obviously, i view those as more unique situations than representing the broad landscape of retail. i still see a lot of opportunity, particularly for these next several weeks into the holiday spending period for many retailers, if not most. >> terry, we had cathie wood on.
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she was talking about this inventory glut she sees building she mentioned inventories at gap were up by 7 or 8% nordstrom's up 17% it was the same story when you talk about walmart and target, they were up, too, one by 17% for target is there a point where the consumer gets tapped out, where they've bought everything they need for the holidays and maybe they slow down or do you think that this is a consumer that is really going to keep spending right after and through the holidays >> i think it depends on the product category for sure, becky. you know, i think maybe electronics category, they will have purchased what they need. but clearly in the apparel category, there is a lot of runway in terms of need and what's not in your closet today, what you haven't spent money on for the last 18 months, that has
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pent-up demand as those return into the work force, they're going to want to upgrade their wardrobe as those return to events, concerts, weddings, travel, et cetera, they're going to want to purchase against those trends and so in the apparel category, i think there is a lot of opportunity for continued growth into the next several months well beyond the holiday period. >> we keep hearing the retailers aren't going to have to discount this year, there are art sales, consumers should get used to it 57d buy early. i was looking at nordstrom and other places, there are significant discounts. they aren't market up and take the prices back down i looked at ugs or spanx or different things these are for items you see out there. is this going to be a profitable christmas or not in. >> again, i think it will depend on the individual retailer and
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where they have inventory lost that they have to move clearly, the acceleration of purchase power over the next seven weeks is extraordinary, relative to january/february so they're calculating what their inventory level is today and what they need to do to move that inventory before that time frame ends but having said that, again, it's individual. i think overall, becky, mar jips will be high the -- margins will be high. momentum clearly has been there. customers tend to say that they're only going to shop once, but their track record is the opposite that they shop early and they again will shop late so it's a double-dip opportunity for the retailers, number one. and number two, i think consumers are also going to say, well, i want to buy this, but they didn't have that then i'm going to pie this. so i think that's unique where we are today because the at the manned is so high and the supply is somewhat limited here so i think for margin purposes,
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you got to look at the overall opportunity for retailers. i see as very positive. >> you know the supply chain issues by a lot of counts seem to have peaked and maybe we're coming off the worst of those levels, so maybe that helps on inflationary things like shipping prices and things maybe those things will come down people have started asking about the other components to inflation that retailers and a lot of other companies, that's wages. once wages get in there, that remains stickier how to retailers handle this what do you think about profit margins let's say for the next 12 months or so based on higher labor costs? >> first of all, i think it's been long overdue that wages needed to rise and what i think most retailers were looking for is a gradual process to get to the wage rates where they are today. so many are now walmart comes to mind was sort of an early adopter here and raised the
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minimum wage to $15, well before the pandemic, long before that so they were adding significant expense each year to get to that point. others have followed or joined along. i think most of the major retailers are at that point today. so they've caught up what they were against was going from a minimum wage that was being suggested to double immediately. i mean, most small retailers, restaurants, could never afford that they couldn't do it overnight. they'd go out of business. so what's happened is a gradual increase so that's been good and it's been positive over the last two years to get to this point and when you think about it, it's got to be baked into your business it has to be recognized as an ongoing expense. this is not, the labor costs are not going down this is a permanent change, unlike the other items you mentioned, freight costs, et cetera, that will adjust over time labor costs are not going down
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those are up high today. they will continue to rides now more gradually as time goes on it's got to be built into your costs. what that also does on the positive side, it gives these workers two are consumers more opportunity, more money to spend as that comes back and recirculates back into the economy. i think that part has been under discussed and i think it's one more opportunity for a reason for people like myself that this economy will continue to grow into next year. >> the henry ford line of thinking thank you, it's great to see you. have a great thanksgiving. we'll talk to you soon during the holiday season. >> happy thanksgiving and to all of your members of the cnbc family >> thank you when we come back, we will talk holiday movies and what to binge. later this morning, we'll be talking supply chain woes and whether or not your gifts will be arriving on time.
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we will get more from the long beach director that's straight ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. this is the new world of work. each day looks different than the last. but, whatever work becomes, the world works with servicenow.
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. welcome back as to "squawk box. holiday season means more people will be staying in and streaming tv shows there are some exciting things coming out which might help the box office that took a big hit joining us to discuss what people are watching at the movies or streaming at home this
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holiday season is life ridge partners co-founder. good morning i use zoom it's off the systems i saw what's coming out on netflix, which by the way is amazing, called don't look up which is an adam cane movie with leonardo dicaprio and jennifer lawrence what do you think will happen here will we see people back in theaters >> i don't know if people are going back to theaters it's slow. the pandemic permanently changed behavior as long as kids want to get away from parents and parent away from their kids. it will be a movie industry. it will be smaller you look at this weekend, there are three movies, resident evil, house of gucci and disney, none of the films has big buzz. the big buzz i mean there is more buzz around tiger king 2 and ar cane on netflix than any of those three movies that i
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just noticed and red notice is the biggest movie. it was released in a few theaters world wide. it was not something you went to a theater to see i think you are seeing a fundamental shift in consumer behavior. >> if we're seeing the shift and this is the inflexion point. i don't know if this is the model. how does it fundamentally change and does it come undone? >> look, you got a whole bunch of executives, traditional media companies, whether it's your parent company, whether it's disney, like everybody is sort of trying to figure out what the right model is you keep hearing the word flexible we're adjusting, like boss baby was released doctor effectually into streaming, meaning on peacock, paw patrol was a huge driver for paramount plus. you know, each of these studios
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is trying to figure out what to do because you can't get the box office dollars three straight marvel films, andrew, all sub500 million of global box office. i mean, these are you know relative to the last few years, these are terrible numbers, nowhere even close to what they used to be all of the studios are rejiggering, sipping 2 will probably be one of the movies released toward the end of this calendar year. it's not going to be on streaming. they will try to put it into theaters exclusively 30-plus days it feels like a mistake to miss the holiday season that is a huge driver of peacock. so the answer is all of these companies are trying to figure out how important is that movie theater business versus how important is our streaming future >> rich, here's the question, though when you think about for example sing 2, you think about you put it in the studio first, in the theater first, on peacock or streaming service first.
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do you think the movies unto themselves can drive lasting, durable subscriptions? >> you know, i don't, it's a great question in terms of lasting, durable it's a fascinating topic we've had you know people debate whether something can sort of create collective buzz by being on streaming can you create sort of that water cooler conversation from streaming? which i think gets sort of your point. is this something where you are anticipating the next one. does it build overall excitement around the service i would look at something like squid game and go that was watched more than any other series in history. i would look at paramount plus came out and had the best week ever because they put a movie and more content directly on to streaming. i think any one title, andrew, no, there is no one title that says, oh my god, this is why i'm going to sign up for this service and stay a customer.
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but a regular cadence, like disney right now is suffering. the stock has gotten killed over the last few weeks because they don't have enough content for disney plus. so they're scaling back expectations on disney plus. the market is penalizing them. but they had lots of content this is bob chapek making a decision, we want to go back to movies versus styleing hbo max has had a great year, because warner media put all of their movies directly on to streaming on hbo max so it's the executive decision-making the content is there. if there is a regular cadence, yes, that will lead to lasting subscribers to answer your question. >> if are you comcast, would you go ahead and pull the material off hulu and put on peacock at the the potential of making hulu what do you do >> we have been begging comcast to end the partnership disney should buy them out
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this is a mess for disney running three service, comcast is going to get paid 15, 20 plus billion dollars for ending that partnership. it's not about pulling the content. this whole hulu thing needs to go comcast need to focus on peacock and disney on its three services, the sooner the peter >> happy thanksgiving. appreciate it. >> happy thanksgiving. enjoy the turkey. >> you too. >> when we come back, signs of supply chain progress at southern california's clogged ports. we will talk to the executive director of long beach we will talk to kelly strick el -- stick elberg.
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good morning, futures pointing to a lower open as we make our way towards the opening bell on wall street. in focus today, interest rates unnerveing investors and big name retail stocks getting crushed. kathy wood on the record, the investor joining us for a wide ranging conversation this morning. we will tell you about elon musk
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and tesla stock. what a coincidence we got the cfo of zoom with us live we will ask her if she is concerned act slowing revenue growth the final our of "squawk box" begins right now. wood > . >> good morning, welcome back to "squawk box. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin i don't is off today the markets are opened we have been watching the equity futures. red arrows across the board. that is down 124 points after a big update for the dow at least. the s&p was up yesterday, too. it's down 14 points this morning and then the nasdaq which has struggled as interest rates have gone higher, you see the nasdaq
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will get it down another 61 points those treasury yields, you will see the ten year is yielding 1.66%. so over the course of the week, that has moved up significantly from where we were on friday the two year at 0.261% the two-year yield go ahead at its highest levels since much of this year, 2020. let's get you caught up on other stories, tesla cathie wood weighing in on end of year stock sales. they have been unloading shares to pay billions to ceos and potential taxes, filings yesterday show musk sold about 900,000 more tesla shares worth about a billion dollars after he exercised options to buy more than 2 million shares. here's wood with us just in the last hour. >> i would bet any financial adviser would say you have got to diversify
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now he went through a near death experience in '08. he knows that things can go wrong. so he also has big tax bills some understand it, take profits, there is nothing wrong with taking profit was he's still is one of the biggest shareholders, he is the biggest of the company >> in corporate news, deere beat expectations, sales came in a little light deere says that solid demand for its products helped cushion the impact of that month-long worker streak that stock is up 3% today. retail earnings season wraps up. take a look at two names feeling pain today nordstrom is down 26%. gap down 20%, more than 20%. this is just for the latest quarter report nordstrom missing earnings estimates because it was hurt by rising labor costs and inventory as well, sales were below a year
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ago, 20 nanny before the pandemic gap also came in below earnings expectations the company cut its four-year forecast gap has been hit by higher shipping and closures in vietnam. it generally lies on 30% of its inventory. meantime, another story, that is the thanksgiving travel rush what it can mean for airline profitability. fill lebeau joins us to talk about that in a moment first i want to go to the marks and check in with the cnbc excepttator mike santoli mike. >> andrew, a bit of an unsettled couple of day this is week the s&p 500 has absorbed a lot of tech-related selling. and we stalled around this 4700 le level. that's up 25% year-to-date level. late in the year have you this fush-pull between whether people want to take profits or pla i that seasonal strength so far not much of a pullback. less than 2% high to low this
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week as we saw a couple weeks back now, take a look at two almost opposite ends of the suspect trum here. transports versus software really tells you the waxing and waning of this rotation all year arriving at a somewhat similar place until recently have you massive outperformance of cyclical's, trade, moving physical objects not much for the deflationary, ethereal software stuff. it eased back, you had more after a growth-focused market. so this has been the story all year it kind of held the s&p itself a little harmless on a net basis even though software had a tough run here similar story, energy versus retail, not contrasting, higher energy costs not tripping retail we will see more of a gut check. this is equal weighted energy. both telling a decent story. you notice sideways here for several months.
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>> i don't know if you saw what cathie wood had to say about nordstrom and gap and the inventory buildup will be the problem? >> yeah. that there is an overhang. obviously, we get the economic data on personal income. they will choose, it's ironic considering investor's number one concern coming into this reporting season was are retailers going to have enough inventory to sell for the holiday season so it's now starting to looking like a liable, if, in fact, it's coming later, it's coming in the wrong place, i think that's a part of the issue, maybe not the right inventory with something like nordstrom >> michael santoli, happy thanksgiving >> let's turn to thanksgiving air travel on what has been one of the busiest travel days of the year phil lebeau joins us he is standing by at o'hare airport in chicago it looks like it is crowded behind you >> reporter: yeah, we're in the thick of it right now, becky it will be like this probably the next hour or so the good news is when you look at the flight board, it's all clear
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no cancellations and really that's the story for all the airports around the country. no major storm systems for the airlines, they need a clean holiday system or season where they can make as much money as possible as they try to move towards profitability airfares will be in focus as they have been over the last couple of months now, they are moving higher. but at $300 for an average domestic airfare for hopper, they're still down 11% compared to 2019, 390 for the christmas travel season. that is flat compared with 2019. despite the higher prices, people are going back. we are seeing that in terms of the number of people who are being screened by the tsa. we've had five straight days with more than 2 million passengers screened by the tsa it will likely be 6 when we get the numbers from yesterday today might come close to eclipsing 2019 that itself the good news, the pad news is right here
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jet fuel up 70% year over year it has moderated a bit it's still high, the airlines have said, look, we will have to keep raising airfares to offset the increase in jet fuel costs take a look at alaska, jet blue, spirit as well as frontier, they are domestic oriented, that's their focus. they did well as we started to see covid case pull back the last has been up pressure. the holiday season is off to a good start this is what the airlines need, guys let's see how this plays out over the next month-and-a-half >> the good weather is a lucky coincidence, they need this profitability going into it. what object the forecast for the rest of this holiday weekend will it be the same story saturday and sunday as people start returning? >> yes yes. we don't, as near as i can tell,
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every time we check the radar. when you listen to the weather people they all say same thing, there is no major storm transportation expected to cause mass cancellation look you might have a few flights cancelled here or there. but you don't want to have the major you know 150 to 200 flights cancelled at one airport and then at the next airport, that's where you have the problems for the airlines. that's not expected this weekend, becky >> great news, phil, happy thanksgiving and good luck with the crowds there >> thanks. coming up, though, when we return, signs of supply chain progress at south california, we will speak to the executive director of the port of long beach as the nation turns the page of the pandemic, are zoom's best days behind it? we will have the company's cfo "squawk" pod, download your podcast, tomorrow is a holiday we will have a new episode available, stay tud,ne "squawk" is turning right after this.
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more goods are moving more quickly and more cheaply out of our ports, on to your door steps and on to store shelves. >> that was president biden speaking yesterday as he said, u.s. port congestion has been easing somewhat dozens of ships are waiting to unload car go and the holiday shopping season is just beginning. joining us is the executive director at the port of long beach, thank you for being with us this was an issue we have been watching and tracking closely for months now where do things stand at this moment >> well, thank you, becky for your invitation. i think it's a fair representation there has been progress. as you just noted, the president is referencing the fact that the anchor have been diminished. we are having proing in terms of addressing capacity strengths here, conflicts, particularly at the port of long beach >> there is still more than 60 cargo ships that are waiting out
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there. how does that match up to what you might have anticipated at this point let's say two years ago? >> i think you go back two years, no one would have anticipated the situation we are in now however, again, keep in mind all of this is covid-based by that, i mean referencing the fact that the supply chain has severe disruption because of covid and, of course, the origin of these containers are in china. the good news is we're making progress in terms of what the future looks like, the delta variant and where that trajectory goes, you referenced the fact when factories close in china, there are repercussions here so being optimistic, i think we're moving forward with some progress here and hopefully as we move in the next six months, we will continue to mitigate the scenario here. >> it certainly is covid that started all of this. it's more than that at this
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point. it's the idea of trying to find workers here as well who can come and pick things up, truck driving, i know you all are working 24 hours a day at this point. but that was a kind of a new thing. it's new for us. it's not new for china or europe part of it is us playing catchup with how the rest of the world has revolved, too, right >> that's true there are labor shortages here the goods moving industry is not immune from those scenarios. so again, we're making every effort to address the situation. one good news from the dock workers that work here at the port of long beach at the port of los angeles we had an early vaccination, full court press here early in the year i think it's fair to say that action led by our mayor had a very positive impact and again diminishing the labor shortage potentially because of covid so on that we're in a very good
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place here at the port of long beach. >> we spoke with your counterpart from the l.a. port he's talked about in the past at least recently that he doesn't anticipate things will completely get back to normal for quite a while. he pointed to the lunar new year they will be celebrating overseas and how that could add to some additional hiccups when do you think things will get back to normal in. >> well, i think if we look to a six-month period, we'll have a sense of normalcy. other believe it may be a year given the progress both with addressing the bottlenecks and the virus, more vaccinations, i think we tend to be more optimistic suffice it to say as we move forward, one of the issues we have to acknowledge. if you is ask a major ceo of containers to the united states, every one of them would answer the question, where is the market the market's in the united states we have a healthy economy. the consumer demand here, or
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appetite here is positive. again, so bottom line is, our economy is growing in the right direction and you know ecommerce has been a factor. people, the number of people who have anticipated moving forward with ecommerce, buying online, you have like a 20% increase in that sector. so again, part of it is also that the factory of a healthy appetite of the american consumer here. >> there has been a huge demand on the part of the consumer. we showed the steps you are proposing to fix things. one we showed was charging container dweling fees if they clog things up too long, they'd be charged. you have never done that you've threatened to make those charges but never actually gone through with that. are the shippers kind of responding just to the threat, itself >> i think that's a fair
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representation, absolutely i think again we're not concentrating this being any time earlier than november 29th. however, given the progress, i think that's very good news, 30% reduction in loaded contapers or airport consatainers on the lan base nine days or more the other scenario is empty terminals. we're making progress with that scenario he. so as we go forward, i think from an optimistic point of view, we hope not to move forward with that deep collection but i will have again obviously there is work that needs to be done the carriers and the stakeholders here which includes port of l.a. and long beach, there is a collaborative spirit in addressing this issue. >> we've heard from the retailers, target ceo, walmart ceo on cnbc talking about how they've tried to address, the lowe's ceo said they've created
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centers off the ports so that they can move their goods there very quickly and get it out of the way. has that been the issue, the biggest players and those with the biggest stakes stepping things up and coming up with creative solutions >> absolutely. i think we have to give credit to the biden administration when they called a meeting of the stakeholders november 13th there was a full court press after that meeting again, as you noted, we are in a crisis and in the crisis, we're pressing a lot of buttons to make sure we do things to move the needle here to address these bottlenecks, yesterday, walmart ceo referenced the fact these big box companies are totally on board for a 24/7 operation, it's challenging to have that transformational change overnight. the positive steps we are taking i think for the future i think it's a lot more optimistic now in terms of what this will look like in the next year or two
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>> what's the biggest holdup as a constant solution to this? >> well, i think we need to look at the supply cane, there is truckers, terminal operators, warehouses, rarlsd, port authorities. i think it takes a collaborative effort to make sure we transform to a different operational modem that will take time. the food news is again there is very robust conversation with regard to the feed to have a transformation change. also labor again i think our terminals in long beach we have one in particular that has a pilot project with us. it will take some time the good news is we are talking about the transformational change. >> mario, thanks for your time in explaining all of this. good luck over the holiday season you get a little time off for thanksgiving. >> thank you so much, becky. coming up, right after the break, what federal officials are telling us companies about possible cyber attacks first major break.
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welcome back to "squawk box. the fbi and other officials warning the company about the prospect of cyber attacks over the holiday. eamon. >> yes, good morning, the warning came from the fbi and sisa, the top cyber infrastructure agency here in the united states. earlier this week, what their saying is hackers like to work holidays so watch out for attacks over thanksgiving weekend the hack erz know companys will down staffed and people won't have their eye on the ball and the fbi is saying malicious cyber actors have often taken advantage of holidays and weekends to disrupt critical networks and systems they compiled a list of hacks that happened just this year take a look, it is some of the biggest hacks of the year happened on some of the biggest holidays, colonial pipeline, mother's day, memorial day, kaseya on the fourth of july we talked to cyber reason about
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this they've done a survey of people who responded to cyber attacks they found something i thought was surprising but maybe should not be so surprising take a look. >> 70% of respond exhibits took the survey said they had at least one drink or were intoxicated when having to respond to an attack and not only a skeleton crew, those who come in online, they're not professionals. >> so the hackers know that. you know, look, drunk driving is back drunk i.t. management also bad and, therefore, they can take advantage of these long weekends if you are having a beer with your football and into your second game and six-pack, it will be difficult to respond to a cyber attack hackers know that. the warning from the government, andrew, is this is a repeated pattern. they don't have particular intelligence that says there is an attack coming they know the hackers like these
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holiday weekends watch out. >> the carve comas that happens particularly on thursday on thanksgiving i ghes the question is, are you supposed to call up your i.t. department, guys, i know you thought you had the holiday off. this is actually go too many >> 83, i think i.t. departments need to start looking at these holidays as a high alert opportunity to be on duty i think that means you will have pa lot of corporate management will think of having go teams ready, people on call, ready to go those people maybe can't enjoy the holidays as somebody else. maybe they can make it up when hackers attack. >> just when we thought retailers like target were becoming enlightened giving employees off over thanksgiving, and what not
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they have to deal with this. eamon, thank you, happy holidays i hope you don't get hacked. >> you better pay up they will take holidays away from people on a last-minute notice when we come back, a new read on gdp. durable goods and more st tayuned you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc my retirement plan with voya keeps me moving forward... even after paying for this. love you, sweetheart they guide me with achievae steps that give me confidence.
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. welcome back to "squawk box. we are a few second away from a bunch of new economic data we're expecting, including october durable goods orders and a revised look at the third quarter gdp. right now the future is down by 114. rick santoli is standing by at the cme in chicago the numbers, please. >> a litany. it's running by my eyes. 199,000 on initial claims. now, that's a nice thanksgiving present. we breached post-covid if we look at with respect to continuing claims. last week, it was 2 million 80,000 this week, 2 million 49,000. so we continue to make progress there as well.
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on the trade deficit, wow, for okay, this is raly big news, we went from the high 90s to minus 82.9 granted, it isn't great news it is very good news it's moved under 90 and so close to minus 80 billion with regard to wholesale inventories, they were up 2.2% anything with inventories is good this is dumb expectations. retail inventories, about as expected now let's look at our second time around the block on third quarter gdp. 2.2 last time. we give it time to weigh, 2.1. not huge 2.1% if we look at consumption, it improves this is important. consumption has been running hot, inflation will bite into that, obviously. it was 1.7% on the price index,
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5.9% 5.9% now this follows 5.7%. what's interesting here is that these are moving down from historic levels on this particular read, 6.1 is the all time high several months ago if we look at quarter over quarter, personal consumption expendture up 4.5, exactly as expected exactly like our last look what is weird is just like the price index. they come to historic 40-year highs at 6.1 for the month of june so we have moderated a bit now, if we look at durable good orders, this is a preliminary number i told you, there is a lot take a breath. this is preliminary. it's going to change it's still a strong number expected and a big disappointment this is the biggest miss of all, down half of 1%. we were expecting the number up .3 of 1%. extransportation came out as expected up .5
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so we can see transportation figured in dramatically lowering the numbers because it came out as expected when you pulled it out up .6. a proxy for business spending called core durable goods and it is a solid number and if we look at shipments versus orders, it's up .3 of 1%. a little on light side a. lot of data points there, becky i think probably the best news is we are moderating on price, moderating on deficits and moving in a new territory on initial claims back to you, becky i hope you and yours have a happy, healthy thanksgiving. >> very happy thanksgiving quick lip, we sound like we are moving in the right direction, with the miss for durable goods, when you still consider transportation as a part of it, is that because people aren't getting car sales? because they're not getting delivered? >> i think that's a good chunk of it as well. i do think that there is some
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issues with regard to airplanes mixed in there as well, mostly autos. what what you are pointing to is the meat open. the as negative, it is a negative that should come back there is not much that can be done about it until supply issues work themselves out. >> happy thanksgiving, my friend see you next week. >> thank you, you too. >> let's go over to steve leishman he has been did he going through these numbers, too steve, this is a mountain of data, rick is looking at i like we're moving in the right direction. >> can i give a clap for how rick handled all that information if i had taken the day off, it would have been me and a hot mess is what i can tell you for sure. what is interesting about all this is rick's terrific delivery gave me time to do some analysis over two-and-a-half minutes of time, which is official.
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and i want to zero in on the question that you asked rick, not knowing you were going to ask it, which is the auto sector of all of these numbers, the best number in this is the auto parts number for durables which was up, the orders were up 4.8%. the shipments up 4.3%. what this could mean and this is early days because it was the first good number we've had in a while is that perhaps we're making some progress on the issues that have backed up the auto industry. i say this only because i am personally trying to get a car these days it's very difficult. it may be that things are getting brighter, that's one when it comes to the auto side you are exactly correct. there was a huge swoon in the really boeing orders boeing plays a huge factor in the durable goods report, which is, it was down civilian aircraft down 14-and-a-half% i'm
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not ordeworried about that i was okay with throwing that out. that was a broader problem the other thing rick pointed out, the non-civilian investment numbers, non-civilian aircraft goods numbers and investment numbers up po.6% what we had here, becky, we had a pretty strong -- i don't know if we talked enough about this, a sustained investment cycle here from business and i do believe that a part of that is a response of business and corporations to the labor crunch you have a really nice kind of investment cycle that's been going on i didn't get a chance to look at the year over year rate on the investment number. that fits into gdp i didn't get a chance. we dumped the details. but it was certainly a disappointment we expected an upgrade on spending and on inventories. i don't know we got them i'll have to take a broader look at that stay tuned for 10:00 we'll get the monthly inflation numbers, the pce core and the
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one that the fed follows 2:00, of course, becky, we have the minutes. have a happy holiday >> happy thanksgiving, steve and happy friday our first friday of the week we are back for another one two days from now. for more on all of this data, i want to bring the chief u.s. economist at oxford economics. it's great to see you. happy thanksgiving to you. you heard the number you heard some of the analysis from steve i don't know if there is any element of that you disagree with >> no. i think the overall, the description of the data is correct. it's quite healthy and strong and good news ahead of the holiday weekend. you know, ploorl the claims number that's a really steep drop down over 70,000. so we're down below that you think pre-pandemic it was
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around 220,000 that tells us the labor market is strong, running quite hot and tight. i guess if there is anything to worry about a little bit is how does that play into wages and inflation? how does the fed handle the idea that the labor market is tight but labor participation is lagging. a lot to unpack there. but durable goods, i do think by the way the data that matters the most the third quarter gdp. it was minor and the durables data were healthy. weaker than we had expected, that poor number does indicate the businesses continue to invesey and that's as steve said, we've had a strong business inventory, investment cycle. >> you mentioned the fed, j. powell, obviously, now renominated to this role he's been talking act jobs, jobs, jobs and more jobs you look at this data, i'm
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curious, if you are j. powell, what are you thinking? >> i'm thinking that on the demand side and the supply side, there is some good news here again as steve pointed out, motor vehicle shipments were actually up. they have been lagging behind. some sense maybe that we are seeing early signs it's easing and the supply chain disruption. so that's good news. we had momentum going into the fourth quarter for durable goods for gdp. on inflation side and the labor market, i think maybe that's going to be the test for the fed and it may be a little worrisome of the impact this has to do with inflation. >> although, if you are talking about the lowest jobless claims since 1939, if you are j. powell, maybe it's time to start raising rates? there is not much work you have left to do when it comes to the employment market? >> well, i think that's the test for the fed and the new frame
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because even though jobless place in and employment rate are quite low, the labor force participation rate is lagging behind as you know and we think that this is about a percentage increase, work was coming back to the labor force and actually it has tempered pressure on wages and inflation. that remains to be seen, of course, but we do expect the tight labor market to draw workers back in. so maybe that allows it to be a bit more patient here and fought have to not to have to jump the gun. they want to taper before they start thinking about raising interest rates >> thank you great to see you >> my pleasure thank you, becky. up next, zoom ceo will be joining us to talk about quarterly results and the slowing sales growth the company just saw someone who owns a lot of zoom stock, that would be ark invest cathie wood. she joined us last hour, let's
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listen to what she said about that stock. >> many people think of zoom simply as a video chat service it is not. it is becoming a unified communications system and the old ones i guess the old ones, cisco and polycom, would be among emth they're going to be ripped out feel stuck with a credit card that works against you? move to a sofi credit card and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪♪ move to a sofi credit card and get 2% cash back on all your spending with no annual fees. grab your share of up to $1,000,000
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welcome back to "squawk box. we're going to get to zoom in just a second. i don't know if you saw this news, we were talking jamie dimon, now walking back a comment he made about china's communist party. he said he thought j.p. morgan would outlast the communist party in china he says i regret that, i should not have made that comment i was trying to emphasize the longevity of our company talking about can you get ae way with saying anything getting away with it here we have a free speech issue in china he's over here in the united states making a comment, a joke at best. >> he said it tuongue-in-cheek you have to be careful when you offend your commerce or potential customers. >> it's another sign you can't, when it comes to china, it's at
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a different level. >> you can say whatever you want you can't do business there if you do. >> right >> by the way, elon musk makes all kind of comments and insults people he does not insult the chinese the chinese government, he is very careful to suck up to when he's over there because it's such a big part of his business. you can insult whoever you want, say whatever you want. that may be the end of your business there if you do. >> it points to how difficult it is to actually have a true free market and any kind of sense that china is moving directionally towards us i'm not suggesting that i think i'm giving up on that. anyway, we will talk a little zoom this morning. because shares of zoom right now are down, we'll show you where they are they're $105.95. yesterday they closed down nearly 15%, despite beating analyst expectations in the third quarter. zoom's latest sales growth was its slowest before it went
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public joining us first on cnbc good morning to you. i want to try to understand what you think is going on and what your reaction is to the way the market is thinking about it. >> yeah. good morning so we were really pleased with our q3 results as you said, we grew 35% year over year and posted over 1 billion in revenue to this quarter. we're open our way to doing $4 billion in revenue this year for the full year. in january, that's over 50% growth and we're really in this interesting phase of tran sessioning from being a killers meetings app to a full communications platform. i think you had kathy on earlier today. she was talking about this transition that we're making we're really excited aboutthat >> let's talk about what that is and what you think it means. clearly the market she is very excited about it the market may be in a show me
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kind of phase about what that means. what does it look like >> what we see now is companies are really in this phase of evaluating what the future of work looks like, i think we all agree it's some version of hybrids and zoom plays an important role in that not only our meetings platform, but zoom phone, zoom room the conference room will play a critical part in the strategy as companies think about how are they bringing plo i years together, some in the office, some working remotely and the coverage is front and center we are really excited about xoom events, it launched 90 days ago. this will be an important part of events, where organization brings data to customers papd employees in a hybrid way as well and employees are front and center in that so we have many community products ahead, we are excited about and the market is trying to understand how that is all going to play forward.
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>> can we speak to the issue of differentiation? i think right now there is a sense in the marketplace that video conferencing, i know you say you are much more than that is going to be become a commoditized business, microsoft is doing teams and giving it away, google with hangouts and meets and what not you are obviously in this space, cisco is in this -- there is a lot of people trying to do something relatively similar some what is going to be the differentiation? >>difference shtiation to use, platform has been up and available for various times. it sounds very simple. but it's really important around it's really difficult to have a
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product that is always available and really intuitive to you. that is going to bedifferentiatn everything we do at zoom is for our customers. it's having a listening sense and thoughtful about the design and products we bring to market. >> we have a couple competitors on the screen, microsoft, cisco, zoom you are zoom alphabet, how do you think about that competitor set and some of which in effect are giving this a similar, i know you can argue your products differentiate, similar products to some degree to their examiners >> we hear from our customers some of those products are work in certain circumstances, maybe internally, maybe when they are doing one-on-one meetings. i think when you look across all the aspects and opportunities, international, where we have large meetings, you are meeting internally and expersonally with
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customers that some is the product that stands up in these case, it is there and reliable to use that is a differentiation. you don't want to have to think about what kind of meeting am i having today, which product to use? you want to know whoever it is you are talking to, will you have a therefore, then, if you' right, what is the market missing? was the market right -- when your stock was at its all-time hide, was it right is the market right? >> we always say at zoom we can't control the stock price. what we can control is our own execution. we are commuted about the future, we also have a new product we're launching earlier next year. so we're focus on continues to be a video and communication platform that serves our customers. that's what we wake up and do every single day. >> how do you think about
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acquisitions at this point you do have a stock that could be a currency at this point, and question sort of how broad you go with it >> yeah, we think every day about opportunities to expand either our platform, or ta-- our talent and our technology. we look for ways to brings initial products to our customers, and i think it's something we'll focus on, and i think you'll see more acquisitions. >> we hope everybody gets to do their thanksgiving in person i should tell you, now, a year ago or two years ago we were doing some of this over zoom. >> yes >> happy thanksgiving. we'll talk to you soon thank you. you too. >> what to watch ahead of the
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washington ylan mui is recording that president biden plans to nominate shalanda young as omb director. let's look at the ten year, which has been ticked up also the, is stephanie link a and -- so, guys, let's talk through what we're seeing. technology is kind of in focus at this point, as we watch yields pick up on the ten year stephanie, we had cathie wood with us earlier this morning she was talking about she is long on a lot of innovation names. she's not so worried about technology suffering because of
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any increase in yield. she thinking a lot of those issues are getting worked out. you're not something who likes at least some areas of technology do you see it any differently? >> of course, she has a longer time frame i have a long time frame, but obviously i'm trying to manage on a year-to-year basis, too you have to step back and look at the macro environment to understand what's happening in this recent rotation the recent rotation has been into value from growth it's been into cyclicals, into reflation names. the reason why i think it's important to look at the macro is because it's really driving rates, right economic growth in october has actually recovered from the third quarter. isms, inflation is everywhere. i think something sticky, something not. >> terry lundgren in your excellent interview, he just said the same thing in terms of
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wages. wages are going higher and will remain high, and rents are stickie. if you have a bit berg growth, rates are going higher they could continue to move higher if this continues, the fed can taper more, sooner and they this raise rates. >> the lowest numbers 1969, so maybe that's more fuel to the argument that the fed should raise sooner rather than later. >> people are getting out jobs, we are slowly reopening. so you taper now, what we don't want is huge jumps in rates. a lot of that has to do with where people tore positioned
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yeah, the opportunities were great when we were staying at home, and some of those stocks are fabulous, but really the true tuchblt is in the value stocks, in the industrial stocks, in the reopening plies that really have been using all the productivity, software cutting costs, that's where you're going to see some operating leverage and the opportunity for investments in the next 12 to 18 months. >> you say you're looking at some falling angels that you think might be stabilizing here. visa master cart? mastercard >> yeah, it started with paypal, then you have some concern about global travel with visa and mastercard these are the fintech companies that are invest ago lot of money, all three of them for the fuss though they have pricing power, it comes directly with what they're doing. american express is another one in there
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awful of these will do well in the future give usa opportunities to invest high quality cash flow companies. >> and stephanie, the areas you do like in technology are places where you could see some big-cap spending. >> yeah, i like -- i am big overyeah in the semiconductor space, and we got good data, to start to see that spend recover. i like ibm, hbe, cisco, these are all way to say play it, and in some cases you get a good dividend as well eamon javers was here earlier saying this could be a big weekend. stephanie and sarat, i want to wish i both a happy thanksgiving and i'm sure we'll see you both
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soon. >> thank you you too. >> have a happy holiday. through the session, the dow is a bit weaker. the nasdaq indicated down by about 108 right now. andrew, have a great holiday >> have a great happy things giving i will see you back on friday. bye. good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and mike san toldi cramer has the morning offer we got a boatload of data.


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