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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 23, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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and stocks were able to eke out 200 points and the nasdaq cut its losses in half >> yields are up from 112 to 165 and still most parts of the market are up. >> and bitcoin was up. that will do it for "closing bell." scott, always good to have you "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in times square this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. co-founder of market rebellion.com, pete najarian the calls are under way. we'll bring you the very latest from the quarters. plus, break out or break down. apple is on a tear soaring 6% in the last week. is there trouble lurking in the charts where the trade is headed next the smash and grab crime spree
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scenes like this play out across parts of the country we'll break down what's at risk and what this could mean for the consumer a tech takedown, the nasdaq finishing in the red down 3% of an all-time high just yesterday morning. zoom down 15%. doordash, crowd strike also dropping sharply today the so-called smart money adding fuel to the fire a new report showing that hedge funds are more tilted to value stocks than they have been since 2015 and it's not just the big guys getting hit the arc innovation etf is down more than 3% down more than 10% the last month. wall street's love affair, is it finally coming to an end guy, what do you say >> i think it's coming to annen, mel, but this is sort of the
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inevitable outcome of what's been going on. i think it's pretty healthy as well we're seeing this rotation the s&p 500 is unchanged, slightly higher on the day that is pretty encouraging some of the high valuation stocks probably never deserved it in the first place. that's me playing monday morning quarterback. i never thought zoom would get down here but they never deserved some of the valuation, the price levels i think what will wind up happening people will find the names they should have all along. banks did well and insurance will do well i think the big cap pharma can find its way in this area as well i still think yields are going significantly higher the rest of the year if you believe that then some of the high valuation names will continue to get whacked. >> how do you interpret what went on in the market today, tim? you can look at it from the perspective we've laid out in terms of tech getting hit, high valuation stocks being particularly vulnerable, or you
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can look at the action from about 3:00 on, 2:30 on, and say, you know, there is still somewhat of a dip playing out in the market >> we're 2%, 3% tops off of all-time highs in the s&p and nasdaq we talked about how the move in markets has been so extraordinary that a little bit of a pullback, let's catch our breath and take a deep breath. it's not that big of a deal. the chart i would most worry about is the semiconductor chart. to mean the leader of this market and arguably is certainly the leader of the high mulltipl stocks like nvidia that we talk about all the time nike, microsoft, you name the list of high quality stocks off all-time highs if you want to look at the fact that if you go back to that goldman report, the fact that
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microsoft has moved into a top pick or one of the top picks overall, that report is telling but yet's trade. the waiting in the stop stocks could push the market around the other point i thought was more interesting in that goldman report one-third of the positions they are compiling the data on are companies trading north of sales these high multiple stocks that were either them chasing because they missed the rally after outperforming in the first part of the year really lagged. again, it's hard to know what to do with data when it may be telling you what yesterday's trade was. if you look at iwm and high growth stocks the last two weeks they have actually given something up at a time when you've started to see the bond market and the curve shift
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around that is what you should watch. until semis fall out of bed i think the market will move and this is a little bit of a breather high multiple stocks, different story. nonprofitable companies, different story. >> the move as you highlighted, tim, has been torrid the philadelphia semiconductor index up, just a handful of points away from that high we're still up there is that enough for you to say maybe this is not over maybe there's still an appetite for these areas seeing higher value? >> i think what tim and guy are talking about, if you see the rotation into value, it will come in the form of financials it will come out of peloton or zoom it's not going to come out of apple. it's not going to come out of
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microsoft or nvidia. so it's the names people know. do you think what people want to rotate into value they're really juiced up getting into a dow, a d-o-w, or some of the names i'm long they don't know those names. people go back to what they know, what they're excited about. i think it's the end of the game for the high valued stocks that everyone just found out about. >> i don't want to pick on kathy wood over at arc but throw that one in because it has been a rough ride. they are symbolic of that retail trade and what was amazing about that report -- and we ever highlight reports to this extend but, pete, it is still heavy in
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this market. they're still in there when it comes to daily active traits, to call option, and that tells me they are suffering, weathering, you used word from this pullback, whatever we're seeing from the past month or so. >> yeah, i find it interesting because i wondered when the time would come we started to go after the high multiple stocks it's a combination of a lot of different things going through this earnings season, what so many companies had to say about what the future looks like and the pandemic and an escalation of some of the vaccine needs that are there when you look at all of that, mel, it makes me lean back to, you know what, we had that pause
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in apple, in amazon, and the names we put into that category of those huge tech names but why were they not moving they are now and we're starting to see a little bit of that. a great move out of happen in the 140s it hit 165 the other day across the board you look at that and what was really getting punished today not just today, over multiple sessions even with the nasdaq going to all-time highs just yesterday. you still look over there and see some of the names pulling back and it's not just the one day this is multiple days and weeks in some cases when you see the zooms of the world and peloton and all those various names we sort of correlated a lot of that, mel, to the shutdown names and when we were shut down, yes, a lot of the names absolutely flew to the upside we still do have the retail trader in there. you are 100% right i see a lot of option activity moving in the retail side not
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necessarily away from the meme stocks but to some of the more standard stocks like in apple, like what we're seeing in a lot of the various names like facebook look at how fast they gobbled up facebook from 313 up to 351 in a two-week span. that tells you about the appetite and where people are in terms of navigating the market and finding the right kinds of stocks that will work to the early part of 2022 >> should we be worried about the retail investor, guy i don't want to have a conversation where we sound all condescending or, you know, i don't know -- i doan even know what the word would be -- >> dismissive, talking down -- >> yeah, they know what they're doing but at the same time for a lot of them they came across some pretty quick wealth by being in some of these stocks and riding their first wave lower and it's probably not that comfortable. and it's not just stocks, it's also crypto. >> no question about it. i don't think you're doing that
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at all and i think collectively we've given them a lot of credit and should i think they've learned to navigate markets we might be on the precipice people haven't seen in quite some time and i think we'll figure it out. what we've learned they're very adaptable and, quite frankly, smarter than we give them credit for and understand some of the things we talk about a lot better than people who get paid to do it for a living. should we be worried i think it will be fascinating to see how they navigate this if, in fact, we are on the precipice of something >> the retail investor even at the margins helped the market go higher you had large banks acknowledging that it is a force in the market. it's not just large institutions if we are going to see any kind of a breakdown in a tech trade, which they were so hopped up on,
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should we be worried about the retail investor pulling out and, therefore, putting another pressure on the market >> i think the advocacy for the market and the disenfranchisement of the retail investor from the pre-crisis to the post-crisis was palpable, tanning tangible we've also talked about the empowerment of the retail investor through the information and technology that i think is largely available. it may not be institutional quality. it might be. i think the key really here is when you start to see markets get to a breaking point, that's where i think we're really more talking about just the dynamics of all investors i think you get to a place where emotionally there are positions that if you can't go to bed at night with a good stomach or a clear conscience, it's usually where you're going to see some
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fall through from the hedge fund community short interest is at levels that i think is, well, it's noted about as low since they started measuring this data. i think this is a lot to do with fear of institutional investors being on the short side of trades that maybe they weren't going to be comfortable even if the fundamentals were in their favor. that's something to watch because i think as you start to see more pain more broadly but the retail investor feels that pain, you might see a bold move to the short side. >> it's been a very unusual cycle and so, steve, what are your thoughts on whether or not we csee seasonality or whether that's a thing of the past for this year? >> it was a thing of the past when we all thought -- i thought that we would pull back seasonality wise it was a blip, and then we started to run earlier
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i do think we will still have that runup into year end, and i think that people are going to -- are still flush with cash, tripping over themselves to buy gifts. having a quasi normal environment. i think we'll still see strength in the consumer in the market, but i do think guy alluded to it, i do think we're going to have trouble in the first quarter of '22 because i think there's going to be nothing to look forward to. you're going to have peak margins. anyone who has the pricing power should have gross margins that blew out into christmas because of the supply chain issues and you'll see the weakness in a lot of companies getting through the first quarter. so i think the tops will be in maybe not next week but in the next month or so
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>> one stock bucking the breakdown is apple, up 6.5%. is apple headed higher from here let's go to capital management partner todd gordon. what are you looking at? >> guys, how are you apple, why not we like it it's about 7% of our growth portfolio, 2% of the dividend. the first chart, mel, the weekly, we need to get above this 161 level this is a weekly candlestick chart. if we close above it, this upward sloping move that we need since september of 2020 is over and it's been underperforming the s&p and the nasdaq since august recently began to push higher on the news of a car. and with the sharp move higher
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in rates and inflation, it's challenging the ability for growth to continue to lead higher what if we take apple and put it over the dollar? we are seeing a correlation of apple and tech and hardware with the dollar they take 60% of revenue overseas, and i think part of the reason we're seeing this move into growth and, again, we have broken out, perhaps this dollar strength is acting as a tightening of monetary policy and the companies, perhaps the input costs going into the iphone which is a 50% markup, sell it for $1,000 perhaps it helps the margins a little bit >> todd, good to see you
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here is a question, in this market, growth or value? pete does it matter >> i don't know that it matters. i always view -- i look at facebook and some of the other names, microsoft, i look at them and say, you know what, look at what they generate from a cash flow perspective, where they trade. yes, they trade at a higher p/e but companies that have morphed into something different than they might have been as recently as the last couple of years when you look at microsoft and the move to cloud. it was all about the phone and then eventually we started moving away from the phone, at services, wearables and the rest of the things apple has been doing. looking at companies and saying there was a very good pause and that was something i liked hearing todd talk about. from july to november the stock paused after making a
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substantial run in the previous six months before that and i think that's part of the healthiness of what we're talking about here which is we see the different sectors that lead and then all of a sudden something else comes in place and we get a pause and i didn't view that negatively i viewed it as an opportunity for names like apple and particularly facebook, maybe throw in microsoft, amazon when they started to make a move recently, a dramatic move to the upside, all quality names. they have great cash flows, they are never stopping where they are and where they're looking forward to in the future apple has been talking about this car forever we've all been waiting we're hearing more and more about this autonomous car. so they are not just looking at just the phone i think there's a lot of growth there, mel
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i think there's growth there, growth in facebook i can still see it in microsoft. the big faang names have plenty. coming up, we're all over the after hours action nordstrom's and gap dropping after reporting numbers. best buy dropping for its worst day since march of 2020. how our traders are playing this one. "fast money" is back in two.
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with a 2-year price guarantee. give your business the gift of savings today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money. some retail pain in the after hours session. nordstrom and gap sinking after reporting results. let's go to courtney reagan for the details. >> reporter: melissa, really messy reports for nordstrom and gap. whipping on earnings by a wide margin revenues beat and gross margin did expand nordstrom department store grew 11% year over year inventories up 13% compared to
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2019 and the department store calls out the inventory forward but it still had categories where inventory was too light for the stronger than expected demand like nordstrom gap earnings coming up short. supply chain issues, poor congestion, a major issue for gap inc. revenues falling well short. the constrained inventory levels heard by eight percentage points they didn't have merchandise to sell they tried to fly it in instead. old navy, gap, banana republic saw year over year sales misses. gap's full-year forecast is well shy of estimates melissa? >> gap is 40% off now plus 10% on top of that, which is not a good thing at all for the gap. back to nordstrom. were they trying to explain that
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jump in year on prepandemic inventories? are they trying to say they're trying to be smart about the holidays and all that stuff will be sold? >> reporter: yes what they were trying to say is we increased our inventory to try to satisfy the early holiday shopping demand that we thought we would see, and we did see some early shopping demand particularly at the department stores but there were some categories, shoes were one of them where consumers were wanting certain styles that they couldn't get as much of as they really needed. and then a bunch of other shoes at nordstrom rack and selling too much merchandise at too low prices there's a lot of mismanagement it seems rather than externally. there are certainly issues but we've seen other retailers manage them a little bit better.
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>> thanks. courtney reagan. pete, i'll go to you apparently you bought calls. what are you doing with it >> i'm kicking myself, mel i usually don't do this but going in just late in the day there was huge activity in the stock. i think it was january 32 1/2 they were buying those are not going to treat me well unless we get a bounce. the numbers were as bad as i've seen the earnings miss, you look at both sides, the misses are huge. and then when you look at the costs they've whiffed on everything i am not going to do well with those calls. i do have a couple of months
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i am not expecting that to happen because this was a terrible quarter and i'm not sure other than a short squeeze i don't see what will force the stock back up to the upside. >> a couple months, it ain't over till it's over. what are your thoughts >> i appreciate that >> we talked about gap last night, down off the highs. low hanging fruit, i think, was in the stock price if you look at the two-year stack, only up 20% versus minus 5% some of the question has been around some of the brands themselves nice to see digital sales are 38% of the total but, again, when you look at the company part was a restructuring
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story and part was brand the valuation is not particularly cheap i think off of, again, some of the easy victories this looks not easy to jump into tomorrow. >> this makes the macy's of the world, the dillards of the world look better in terms of their management of the supply chain issues >> it does and you see the difference between a strong and weak retailer. i think all of retail you're probably going to get another month or two before they all top out as well. they fell short of expectations. this is what i was talking about earlier on in the show if it's supply chain issue it should have been and gross margins should have been
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stronger shouldn't have been cutting 10%, adding another 20%, you should have pricing power what i do think the takeaway for me is tjmaxx or ross stores benefit from having that supply g glut if we see that supply coming on, which it looks like there is now. those stocks under pressure should be bouncing >> do not miss "mad money" at the top of the hour. jim will be talking with the ceo of gap catch the full, exclusive interview at 6:00 p.m. eastern time jim made big moves in retail today. heading into the holiday season. you can read all about it. coming up fresh off the robinhood hack attack, the details and how traders are navigating the name.
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smash and grab thefts, and two names are sounding the alarm. how this could impact investors. the details are next ♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks ...it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! [thud] [clunk] ugh... unbelievable. unbelievable. [ding]
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(swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. new aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. welcome back to "fast money. "we've a buzz kill on best buy, the stock dropping more than 12% on the back of earnings. something happened on the call that caught our attention, specifically karen finerman's attention. cory berry saying we are seeing more and more organized retail crime and incidents of shrink in our locations.
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she went on to say you can see the pressure in our financials and see the pressure on our associates we heard similar commentary from target karen is not on the desk tonight but is saying this could point to a labor crunch adding pressure to retail as retailers are trying to ramp up staffing maybe the consumers are seeing pressure, feeling certainly inflationary pressures which secretary yellen had acknowledged yesterday on "closing bell," guy. crime usually rises when there's economic trouble >> clearly that's part of it maybe the stores are underjust staffed. i will not try to figure it out. what i will say, though, best buy has been a monster yes, we had this huge move down today. if you look real quick from august until recently and this
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1050120 change, broke out to the upside, look at the quarter, inventory is maybe ahead of themselves i think you will see people get back in this name between this 110 and 120 level. it's a monster and will be again. >> we mentioned these factors. we don't normally talk in how a stock trades you think wage inflation or pressure on the consumer, maybe they're feeling more pain, may not have as much money to spend. looking at it from a trading perspective, steve >> yeah, i think that you don't have enough workers.
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guy said this, karen said it, in the retail operations and, also, just remember we've been locked up shopping through e-commerce a lot less staff there i wouldn't read too much into it i do like that level guy pointed out when you look at the recent low and high, the stock has more than retraced 50%. i would like to end the stock versus exiting it. the 120 level is a good entry point on best buy. >> does this interest you? >> steve is talking about the chart, it takes you back to a level the stock had been holding and had consolidated and was looking for that breakout that it did have. i think these comps were brutally tough and i don't think these numbers were bad it sounds like i'm falling in
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line with guy and steve. i tell you what, at 14 times they'll earn 1110, 1115. this is a $150 stock remember, their total tech is a double-edged sword we got excited about tech and subscription revenue, we got excited about a new story at best buy that's had something to do with the margin they also had slightly more promotional environment, there were reasons why gross margins were down 60 i don't know the reasons to throw the stock out the window rallied 5% off the interday lows and closed on the highs. nothing to get excited about a very disappointing day the stock is interesting at these levels >> pete, did you buy calls this quarter? >> i've had some calls in here, mel, and, you know, they worked out. i just didn't get rid of them all. i should have. that was my mistake.
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i wasn't disciplined enough. i've been in them for a couple of weeks but not today. the ones i had left. the numbers were absolutely extraordinary actually for what they reported. but obviously there are a couple issues that they have to deal with, and i think tim or somebody mentioned target and some of the stores, they need some more employees working. i'm in best buy fairly frequently and see a lack of people there not only to help you but to stop people from the theft issues they're dealing with, which does play a factor in the margins it costs them $700,000 in every billion dollars in sales because of theft that's a healthy number after a while. i think there are ways they can attack this and continue to be the best buy that we always wanted i also think this stock has plenty of room to the upside and i will be looking at it
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tomorrow >> pete is all over doing the channel checks sticking with retail here up next twitter teaming up with walmart for a big holiday shopping event we'll tell you about the big bet on retail dollars. first dark web deals robinhood's data on sale on the dark web as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com
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or live chat at calhope.org today. welcome back to "fast money. we are following new developments on the back of that massive robinhood hack to eamon javers with the details. eamon? >> reporter: robinhood disclosed the hack earlier in the month and we started to see reports of people offering to sell the data that had been stolen it looks like we have a real one according to our cyber security consultants. they are seeing an offer made now to sell this data on the dark web the hacker or the vendor is known as xak offering the data stolen earlier in the month. it's posted on a russian-language hacker forum called exploit that doesn't mean there was a russian hacker here but that's where the data was offered for
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sale 7 million plus lines are in this database including names and email addresses. the asking price is over $100,000 we don't know if this is the hacker, him or herself, offering this for sale or somebody in a secondary market who is now trying to up the price and resell it. it is now being offered for sale so if you have a robin hood account, your name be in that database we talked to robinhood they don't have any comment at this point beyond what they said earlier in the month >> i'm not sure if you can answer this, eamon it strikes me that $100,000 is not a lot of money for 7 million lines of data from a database. maybe it's the kind of data that needs to be used in conjunction with other data to extricate
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anything important >> yeah, i think that price tells you two things hackers operate according to supply and demand and there's been so match data stolen and this is a commodity. this is adding to the large mile of stuff and might tell you what's in the data itself. email addresses and names in there. if there were credit card numbers, social security numbers, even more details, maybe you would see a higher price point. somebody can buy the names and email addresses of potentially millions of customers. that's of value but, you're right, it's not a lot. >> i like that explanation of data like a commodity like dram. there's a glut, and prices go down
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tim, you're in hood, aren't you. >> my options in hood are kind of like pete's this was a story after earnings i thought was over done with a sticky client base certainly a demographic and engaged user base. it's almost kind of funny that based upon what the stock is doing it's indicative of the price that data is fetching. it's all running in line here. this has been a disaster and this is, again, one of the hot stories that right now looks to be needing to figure out a revenue stream especially if there's paying for order flow dynamics, could be head winds and some of the crypto trading is stuff we're just not going to see come back but, again, think of this demographic. think how engaged. i think robinhood's best days
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are ahead of them. >> the glass half empty, the retail investor gets burned through crypto and other high flying stocks. they step back and robinhood's best days are behind them. >> i think you laid it out perfectly. i get what tim is saying i hear what you're saying and the stock price reflects what you are saying if the headwind is the payment order flow going away, the stock reflects that, the payment for order flow is going away i do agree with tim. it's a heck of a sticky client base, so that's why people would buy the stock here and take a flyer out on it. i would probably re-up some upside calls here versus actually buying the equity itself but when you look back on it, a name and an email address, every retail website has my name and
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email address, and everyone else's on this panel so that is not a big deal. i wouldn't let that be the reason why you are spooked out of a name. >> all right, coming up, twitter betting on retail, teaming up with walmart for an online shopping live stream and some huge stars are coming along for the ride including guy's favorite we have the details next plus shares of drop box falling hard some options traders "fasmoy"s ckt ne iba
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welcome back to "fast money. twitter is rolling the dice on retail teaming up with walmart to host a shopping live stream to kick off cyber week, jason derulo is hosting sunday's event. users can buy products in real time features in twitter's shop tab. will this pay off for twitter? tech investor of altamont capital partners great to have you with us. you're saying that basically the dollars made on action i
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a live show, right >> twitter is finally innovating after ten years of stagnating they're showing an ability to innovate and roll things out we all know live stream shopping is a huge thing. a lot of american brands are saying this is this the new mega trend and now the platforms, snapchat, facebook, twitter are trying to get in on it and how can they participate in this mega trend that's happening? >> if you don't follow on twitter you should the stock twitter has been a brutal stock to own now over the last six to nine months. does this finally move the n ne needle i think this is a big deal for them >> i think for twitter the reality is there's the business and the stock and the stock, if you look over the last ten
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years, has treaded water they're finally innovating, as i mentioned. when you think about this it's one more piece in the puzzle for them it may not be the one big thing but it's a sign of their willingness and ability to actually shift new product and innovate for them the ad monetization, the ad stock relative to snap and facebook has lagged. they haven't been able to draw signal and allow advertisers to make the tried and give them the money, the ad spend. what they will find is it will do two things. you will have creators able to have high value content on the platform that will keep people reading and drive new users and more signal as people are engaging you will have advertisers able
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to rationalize the budget over from other platforms and that could be meaningful long term. >> so what happens if this live stream attracts lot of viewers a lot of eyeballs are associated with it but there are no transactions or the transactions are very low what will make this a success? i don't know that they want to compete with a youtube to get ads to monetize the live stream content. >> it's a great question if people are engaged, staying on the platform, that will be a win. engaging content that keeps people there, enjoying the experience, you mentioned jason derulo will be on it
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if twitter can show they can compete, that's a big deal >> great to get your analysis on this >> thank you for having me >> it is a good follow pete, what do you say about twitter? is this a big deal >> i think it's smart they're jumping into it. whether or not it's a bill deal is whether they can do the things he was mentioning, are people going to be as involved as he is expecting them to be? this is something that does move the needle slightly. i do think this does bode well for twitter and they are willing to try this. they just haven't been able to go out and get that much more innovative than they already have they've been stagnant for a long time i think this is an opportunity
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to see where this can go and if it actually hits and they get engagement this really could actually be something fairly big, i think, for twitter. coming up, why options traders are betting on a bounce for drop box we'll break down that trade.
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welcome back to "fast money. headed to the cloud. the dow down more than 6% last week as big tech continues to pull back from its highs the stock does have an investor day a week from turkey day and options traders are betting on that to spur a quick comeback. mike >> so dropbox traded well over six times very close to seven times and calls out putts by 5 to 1 the most active options were the december 26 calls over 13,900 of those traded for an average of 51 cents a contract. we did see implied volatility, the price of options and those ones specifically rise sharply
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on the opening institutional activity buyers of the calls are betting that dropbox could rise above the $26 strike price by at least 50 cents they shared, an increase over 8% from three weeks from this coming friday. as you point out they do have that investor day december 2nd, i believe, around midday >> mike, thanks for that tune in to the full show that is next friday, 5:30 p.m. up next "final trades. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them.
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"final trade" time tim? >> thanks for the handful of catalysts including higher interest rates jpmorgan best of breed stock starting to break higher >> grasso? >> i'm going to look for sonos to move higher i'm a holder product is on the shelf. sonos. >> pete? >> mel, we started off the show talking about some of the financials the xlf continues to see buyers. >> guy, you know what day it is tomorrow
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>> please tell me, mel >> it is hump day, the day before turkey day. there, i said it what's your final trade? >> gobble, gobble. >> you said it all show. pru, higher rates. >> thanks for watching "fast money. see you tomorrow, hump day, the day before turkey.y da "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple, make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. rein i and i promise to help you find it m mad money starts now >> welcome to cramer my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you. call me. you can't always figure out what a stock is worth when is in free fall as so many tech stocks were today, the rest of the marke

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