tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 22, 2021 9:00am-11:00am EST
good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber big breaking news out of the washington this morning. ylan mui, good morning >> good morning, carl. president biden is nominating joirm powell to a second term as chairman of the fell reserve he's also naming lael brainard to serve as vice chair the white house credited decisive action by powell and the central bank in the midst of the pandemic as critical to the economy's rapid recovery in a statement president biden said i have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that chair powell and dr. brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs. the white house also pointed to their joint focus on exclusive
growth, and said the administration has full confidence in their experience, judgment and integrity both powell and brainard will need to be confirmed by the senate already at least three democrats have come out against chairman powell, but he is a rep and will likely draw bipartisan support there are still three vacant seats to the board of governor the white house says it had announce those nominations early next metropolitan, and is committed to improving diversity at the board, but the white house is opting for continuity naming jay powell to a second term leading the central bank, and handing the vice chair position for lael brainard. >> we're going to talk about the market reaction all day long we are expecting to hear from the president tomorrow to talk
about inflation. might we expect some further color on this decision then? >> you know, one thing this administration that is struggled to confront is how to talk about, how to message these rising prices. they are trying to show that they are concerned about inflation. they are trying to show that they are working to bring prices down, but also try to go say a lot of this is out of their hands. of course, as we know here at cnbc, a lot of the trajectory will depends on the actions of the federal reserve. i wouldn't be priced if it comes up, but we will have to wait and see. >> ylan, thank you very much jim, does the market line policy continuity >> oh, yeah. there's no doubt that chairman powell is directly related to how well the market has done people think he's done a very solid job. it's always vote for the idea that it is transitory, that inflation is not here to stay. now, jay powell has been adamant
that we're going to get all of these port issues congestion solved he's also been adamant -- have you noticed oil isn't going up anymore? >> i did notice it >> so-- we had a report earlie about thanks giving being up 14%. the ample wage of the worker has gone up. the taxes aren't so into for workers, so i come back and say this is a guy that unique ly which is a nice mix. >> you and i have been having the transitory debate for a year and a half. >> no one says transitory means short. here we are. >> working people are doing better. >> they are. wages are going up, but
unfortunately the buys power is no better. >> look, i come back to the idea that covid is just this hidden tax on the system. i think a lot of -- the dow has been down, down, down. everybody has fearful of any covid. well phil lebeau at an airport i think it will turn out to be better than november of 2019 people want to go places take a look. there's a company that came public not too long ago, rent of runway there are six pieces on it people are going out, doing things the news says that people are not doing anything, what i think is so funny, they're just going out, they're not going to work because of covid. >> we're going to talk about some of the human behavior in a
little bit steve, good morning. >> good morning, carl. i'm looking at markets today and seeing the reaction to the powell announcement, some brainard trade come out of the markets. you have stocks quite a bit higher, at least on the futures, 175 on the dow it was around 100. i'm seeing the two-year yield higher, the probably of a rate hide in may a bit higher i'm seeing the dollar stronger against the europo, though not across the board on the dxy, so there was a trade there. i'm struck by how much the president has interested the two as a tandem, together as we're doing this with powell in front, and brainard as vice chair i think he's obviously finessing the political aspects of this. one other thing that struck me is president biden has broken what could have been a trend, which was the idea that the president would step forward,
and no matter what the performance of the chair and the fed, would pick his own person so i like the idea that that's been broken and now kind of reaffirming the apolitical nature some of the opponent, and the idea the president is going for bipartisan support, and really, i believe, shunned the progressive wing of his party. >> we thought this decision was going to come earlier in the year, and there was some discussion over the weekend as to whether or not the, quote, delay was adding to inflation anxious site do you think that's true >> i think so. i think the idea was that brainard was going to be a little easier on pulling the trigger regarding easen rates. you want to all be careful when news like this breaks. the market can be very volume activity
i'm seeing the probability of a fed rate hike, i'll give you that to you here 48% for may. that's what i'm watching to see if the market is getting into this idea. powell will be free to do that whether he does it in december, and you had two fed officials start to talk about a faster taper, and the idea of rate hikes in the summer has now started to get into the market what is interesting here and this is all jimmy's area of expertise, stocks don't mind that stocks are going up as well. the idea that, hayes, we'll have somewhat higher rates next year. big deal the bid is in this morning, and a bit strong ever.
will be tip per when it comes to climate change it seemed to be more than that than actual yield. obviously people think that jay is easy on the banks that seems to be the market's impression >> i just diagnose agrees with this idea that powell has been -- there have been some amendments to the dodd/frank rule some people talk like it was handed down from the mountain and not a word could be changed.
the idea that powell is a dangerous man. i mean, capital ratios are very high so, you know, the idea jimmy, that the banks are being let off the hook, i think that goes way too far. >> i agree i agree. >> brainard is vice chair, back to this idea of an increase in bank regulation. does it have an impact at all? does it defer to the fed chair >> well, first of all, i want to go back, inherent? jimmy's question you have to look at what happens to rates. that probably will be the most important thing i do think you
have to wait to see who is the chair of bank supervision. i would imagine it would be somebody who is as tough or tougher on the banks than brainard so things could get tougher, and then you know, there are three other positions to fill. the way the fed works, they sort of work by consensus on these things but you can imagine things will f indeed get tough er we have a statement from senator toomey, sake i look forward to confirming his nomination. is it a no-brainer or not? >> it's much easier to get
powell through if you were going to expansive about this appointment, you could say, is this the beginning of a tack to the middle by biden after what happened in the off-year election this past november, and whether or not -- this is -- one of the few times, carl -- you follow this as well as i do, that he said no to the progressive wing of his party. you had three senators as ylan mentioned, warren, merkley, sheldon whitehouse, all have said they would not vote for powell frankly the president had let this become sort of a political circus, where he let his own party dictate what should happen certainly there's a centrist aspects to this. we'll see if it's something different. >> and we look forward to
reaction from all corners today. steve, thanks. that's our steve liesman, sort of folds into other news >> i sent him in inquiry, we have all these instant mil milli millionaires how about all the this hand wringing about the stores not having anything, and the big boxes pretty much having everything you need of course the big boxes win. last week, home depot, there's no other hardware stores they kind of wiped them out. it's hard to get funding to expand yes, tractor supply is good. but the home depot -- i follow it for us.
>> the home depot traits from do it yourself to professional very easily look at that >> well, listen, we talked about it last week we hear from lowe's, walmart did not respond particular because of concern about margins, and not passing along, including what it's costing them to effectively deliver goods, but obviously costing more, but your point is one we have been making, which is the big continue to get bigger, then benefit from scale and size. >> i think that, david, what
happened is this was just the ultimate takeover of the companies that have scale. this is going to be known as an era that if you have scale, you won. >> you also can't buy your own chips -- >> the costco navy. >> there were a couple others as well notices the navies wanted to avoid the ports -- >> but a couple people mentioned our but view with the port director on friday, as having been important he was more positive >> might be working on the weekends. >> eye internally the number of containers sitting around nine days or more. >> and they're stacking them
high every -- >> it'sing better since he we aren't out there did he theften them? >> i don't know, but it seemed to be an effort to try to get people working better together. >> there is definite definitely a concern. you don't want to slight austria, but germany is a different story. >> there are pockets of people all over the world, who think that the vaccine is bad for them the florida governor told disney, the go ahead, do whatever you want to keep your
patrons safe on it then he went back. we have governors acting like presidents. >> 60 million people still haven't gotten vaccination >> dr. gottlieb does talk about florida may have herd immunity. >> that said, they did a panel in the eu, did approve the merck drug, the antiviral. >> are you still plodding that horse? >> there are other a. you have. >> by the way, they're both incredibly important. >> but they're not being used. >> they're not approved yet. in europe they did have the panel already recommend approval, but told be months, which is interesting to note they've had their panel way in
and say yes. >> one of the things that's not talked about, you have an amazing confluence here of just everyone going back to work all over the globe, right? they're going back all over the globe. >> they are. >> all asian output in general is back. >> and that was a big problem, but the pockets surface, we don't know what happens. what happens >> as you mentioned, gottlieb, part of his point is delta was basically catching up with germany in ways this didn't before. >> yes. >> he also had additional criticisms how booster policy has been rolled out in general take a listen. >> the effects of the boosters are pretty much immediate. the data on the decline in clinical cases is about after a
week if you look at the antibody response, it's almost immediate. so people with boosters could have potential more protection in time for thanksgiving. >> awesome. >> i got boosted this weekend. >> i went on friday. >> i got boosted ages ago. the fourth boosters does not work dr. topol says don't get the fourth >> i was actually curious. >> people are not going back to work -- >> every time, everybody you talk to, nope, not back in the office >> they're scared during the day, but in the evening, all clear. >> all these conversations take place across a table in a restaurant. >> meantime, how about pfizer? i got a call from pfizer, listen, we have a booster,
everyone is going to thing all we are about is profit tdeering. >> it's like scooby doo, do you remember -- monster are real >>. >> you decided to be funny. >> every so often it hits, jim i see you came back looking for your found of flesh from the west coast, having you >> what word did you use flogging >> we were the only people, our team, in san francisco no one is there. a guy steals the sweater next to me in gap, what are you going to do better than the 80 people who broke into nordstroms?
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happy monday, everybody. we've talked a lot about this name lately, of course, as we discuss the metaverse, omniverse, whatever you want to call it. >> we golf this investment, now they're going upstream, but this is another parabolic move. that is because a lot of what was said about zuckerberg, but a lot of what's been said by jensen huang, that the omniverse can be work or play. expressed by nvidia is work. this is the omniverse for music, for teenagers, for young people.
>> is this sustainable >> it should never have been here this is what's wrong the numbers were extraordinary they had a monthly numbers that was weak, and then it went down, as people just said this company doesn't have momentum. this is a company i picked in our super bowl stock picking contest? >> you picked roblox >> yeah. >> you may win. >> yeah, just like the eagles, i made my reservation to los angeles. >> this is a win for you -- >> yes, because it's the harmless omniverse it's the fun omniverse. >> does it go like that? >> next year jensen said he may
invite me over for my turkey dinner does the avatar taste? >> you won't be able to eat. what's the point. >> machines who said good job to them, i saw it, they were really happy. >> we'll want to hear a lot more on friday. >> by the way, you know, all i do is talk about that great call of yours. >> i have an investment club everybody in the investment club got that call. my daughter said, dad, these free we have the opening bell coming up. you can catch us anytime anywhere, listen to and follow "squawk on the street" opening llodstbe pca
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omniverse. we want to simulate the world's power grids in the omniverse by doing that, we can improve -- or decrease the amount of waste. that's the reason why the economics are so good for companies. they're willing to invest a small amount of money to buy into this artificial intelligence capability. but hopefully these save hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars. >> that's nvidia's jensen huang talking with jim on friday. >> first, i didn't know it was an industry application. it's really about he cares passionate about the environment, about scarce resources. he thinking this is a way to cut back on the destruction of the world. >> how give me an example. >> all the plants they have so much waste, because there's so much guesswork there's guesswork at bmw, but you don't need it. the most accessible one is that
the person at the drive-thru window is not as good as the simulator. the avatar makes no mistakes you can have the avatar talk to every sing the person. right now i have to go to the little thing, that would be over he goes, i don't know why. why haven't they [ bell ringing ] he talked about 30% reduction in waste. it's clear there's a lot of waste everywhere. >> how do you attack that waste -- >> no more guesswork. >> what you do it, in the omniverse? >> exactly the omniverse is precise there's a lot of things being built where you used too much of a product, like too much steel this makes it so that the exact amount of steel is correct so you don't have to order, say, five times the amount of steel
you need. >> that's still an issue >> what's incredible is how wasteful we are as a worldit's like bond talking. >> until his voice went up high. >> and then the tiger that was done as a simulation remember when, you know ylan -- >> yeah, yeah. >> the simulations are here, and they're much better, smarter i said, is this one smarter than i am he said -- >> i said how about a cezanne
seascape. >> he said, give me something hard . shoulderup celebrating its listing at the nasdaq, and brilliant earth. uismtsds. >> people like brilliant arth. the president will speak on 1:20 with the powell decision, and we'll get more color what went into the decision >> i hope he mentioned that powell kind of saved western civilization when everyone was freaking out he didn't have to spend much money. he just had to saying it. >> there is awful -- -- all the different programs that they came up with immediately
>> you're a fan of his as well you took issue with him. >> that was fairly early in his first term >> jay i think has a heart he's the most pro-workers fed cheer. he is a republican, but he's a banker >> do you work about fierce opposition from the left >> no, i mean, i think the left is exhausted they're like tired move on. >> this guy is a hero on the left
>> constellation brands, are you moving on? >> you mean the monster think? >> you don't like it >> jim is referring to a bloomberg story that talks about monsters it's gotten a lot of people curious, is what it really is. i have talked to a number of holders and monsters, wait a minute they just bod body armour, so we don't think they really want that place here. >> it's a cash machine -- >> and a lower multiple than monster. it's a one beverage company. >> may he was just floated
consist tlags has spend all the that money on canopy, and so far that's not been a strong bed vonage is too small to talk about? >> no, it's not too small. 5.3 billion deal -- >> but erickson is trying to have a pulse nokia last week, these guys have pulses they're alive, they're alive >> there's real competition going on there in this cloud area in terms of voice function, different functionality. they're buying vonage, yes you can see the stock is up almost 25% and they are talking about it being eps and free cash flow accretive by '24.
>> did you notice the parabolics nature in the last few weeks people are obviously speculating. that stock has been on fire. >> there it is look at that right side. it had a good quarter of the they had a problem with mexican glass. >> are you having trouble with mexican glass? >> it's up to my wife. i don't know >> rivian had been on fire lucid is also down, not favored -- the two names that we have been focused on. >> don't you think this is ford? >> yes, ford shares are up.
>> i know you like when i say this >> mechanic queen says, we're competitors. >> steve mcqueen, whose obit you wrote -- >> he hated it, and made it clear to me that he did so much charity, but he hated it, he said in i mentioned it, it would come back to haunt me. it's been, what, 40 years? >> they did not know they just thought he was a tough guy, but a heart of gold >> loam bard -- i think they do. >> no encampment there.
>> is it bad in san francisco in i don't even want to talk about it >> one beneficiaries of the yield picture will be banks, right? >> it broke the 160 level. >> what do you think jamie was doing? >> i sound like jensen huang's avatar what are these doing >> maybe the relief rally is po powell, but there was a belief that brainard would be perhaps less of a friend potentially vice mare, of course, but. >> citi is actually moving up. >> it takes a lot.
saying we do not believe these problems are going to go away under a clear resolution is reached. >> are they independent? it looks like -- >> the journal is reporting that mr. kotick is saying he would decide himself if he do fix the problems, and then if he can't -- >> this is like a family business >> the pont we have made is, listen, we're not here to pass judgment, because frankly we don't know, but it is odd -- and you raise the key point that the board has just said we support you, and they're not involved h here. >> i guess this didn't require that you'll sideline a ceo.
we're your boss, we're going to look at this and figure out what's going on. >> it's more -- >> not a lot of -- >> more like bobby selling that to the board you go sit over there. >> kind of an organization >> meanwhile, the stock is down every day. that's going to have an impact >> people are saying iconic founder, one of the smartest guys, incredibly sophisticated, both financially and -- but, you know, jim, there's a belief he were to actually go, the company would have to be sold. that may be -- >> that's very interesting the group has been horrendous. of course, the hot one has been gamestop
>> what did i tell you >> meanwhile, disney, although up just a touch, did get its price target trimmed at wells. 24th go down to 196. the strong content mob wmachine was the culprit. >> now we've got, just like we have david talking about ford and how such and such is big about ford, what is the analog to disney? >> netflix. >> yeah. >> now netflix is much larger than disney. >> not much, but. >> what does netflix have? cruises? parks? >> they have a lot of content. >> disney has a lot of content. >> yes, they do. >> just a fraction of netflix's. >> there is that question as to whether or not they need to be broader in some way. >> do they have to buy
something? fantasy, you just isolate your players. they'll be able to do that if they get on the stick. >> i'll still have to wear my goggles, right >> no, it's passe. >> what can i do >> contact lenses? >> no, it's like what jensen showed me. >> okay, tell us. >> you don't need no stinking glasses. >> okay. explain. >> you're looking at it, and it's just kind of there. >> that doesn't help me. am i walking into a room >> a screen.
look at unity. >> am i surrounded is it around me? i'm trying to understand this. you still haven't helped me understand it. >> you have an engine deconstructed, and you can see how all the parts can be made, and a machine makes an engine. you can make that machine more efficient in the omniverse why is not so hard for you >> because the machine is not actually being made there. >> it's a virtual factory. it's called a digital twin, if you would just get a little more open-minded you would sea a second factory, does it run better >> the virtual factory >> so you have a thomas car, an a person in the right. obviously you have to make a decision so jensen, when you autonomous
comes down, does it swing automatically to kill the person on the right than the three on the front? >> it never gets to that that's what humans do. humans make that mistake machines have millions of sensors. it would never come to that. there, do you get that >> i still don't get it. >> you know, the voice at the drive-thru that's gone. >> that could -- >> why hasn't wendy's done that. why don't people call jensen and say i saw the interview you did with cramer. i want you to come out and fix my situation it's just when people realize what jensen can do, i think they'll like give them a jingle. >> it's not very far. >> again, a few weeks ago, i was remarking on 700 billion, now it's 854 billion.
>> using so much less heat he's also an engineer, an architect, a painter, a chef he's a chef. >> he has ample evidence that humans are yu -- they get tired all the time they drink the chances of a machine doing any of the things that a human does is ridiculous will you look at that? >> its credible. >> the greatest story of our time. >> given the red ricks, this line from the health minister by the end of the wind everybody log vaccinated, recovered or dead, why is livenation ants wynn and las vegas sands leading -- >> the numbers are be better in macau -- matt was steve's guy,
okay they are adamant that it costs $13 billion to re-create what he has with the market cap of ten wynn can be a snap back or a takeover target. it's so small. remember, david, by the way, if you watch the gambling stocks, i know -- draftkings has a huge amount of insider buying, a huge amount. >> more today, in fact. >> i think jason is saying arizona is going incredibly well >> more ambitions to -- they dropped the bid, as you know in part because of the concern that entain had a consider -- >> remember, i think that it's still a cost of acquisition
game, and it's costing too much. like you see the caesars ads >> there's a lot of them how can you miss them? >> the casinos have very little cost i think jason runs the best, as draftkings, but there's so much com comp 'tis. competition what they do is they have these things like it if ma homes gets a touchdown, you get $100, and then he doesn't. that was supposed to be the gimme. >> i know. he pitched it to his running back >> yeah, i know. the national game was bad. hey, the nbc had one of the
greatest ever. >> i argued that the packers/vikings -- >> that was incredible. take a look at the bond report we get the news out of the white house that they will renominate jerome powell. spread between the 5 and the 30, lowest since march of 2020, and we'll keep an eye on the curve as the banks benefit today we're back in a moment
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cyber security, operation margins expanding. this is microsoft. >> i love we put up 20 years or 10 years, story. >> i think this is an argument potentially index fund because i think that this is they've put together an amazing team my travel trust owns it. i'm saying it's untouchable. you can't sell this thing. it's too good. >> i mean, market is -- has already historically leaned on mega cap tech, but especially last week, right >> last week was incredible because what happened is that all the money went to mega tech. the nasdaq was up almost every day. the dow was terrible but what's happened there's a group of stocks, by the way, met -- meta does well, apple has broken out to all-time highs >> apple almost equal to the s&p's performance of the year. lagging by a half. >> lagging terribly. next will be amazon.
>> made that up in the last week and a half. >> the car >> waze it -- what is it >> microsoft keeps going up and that's about sales i think sales -- i think the consumer is so strong. i mean you watch tv and realize that if you go to t-mobile they give you like seven different devices now. >> for free. >> everything. i'm waiting for a mac pro. tonight we have traeger, which is a company that makes a fantastic grill that really hasn't caught on fire. and then zebra, take a look at that stock that's incredible. that's bar code zebra. and also solve the port problem. bar code remember that in wire season two. >> bar codes. >> the baltimore -- >> i do remember yes. >> what a monday going here, jim. we'll see you tonight. "mad money." >> congratulations >> yes 6:00 p.m. eastern time dow up almost 260. don't go away.
existing home sales rose slightly up 0.8% month to month to an annualized rate of 6.4 million unit sales down 5.8% year over year there were 1.25 million homes available for sale at the end of october, 12% lower compared with a year ago, represents a 2.4 month supply a 5 to 6 month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller now weak supply is strong demand pushed the price of a existing home, 13% -- 13.1%. sales of homes priced between 750 and 1 million dollars rose 25% and sales of million dollar plus homes were up 31% the realtors chief economist points to an increase of
investors likely driven by soaring rents. investors made up 17% of october buyers up from 13% in september and 14% in october of last year. all cash buyers, 24% most investors, of course, use cash and first-time buyers were just 29% of sales compared with 32% a year ago and historically, that should be around 40%. carl, investors knocking out the first time buyers as usual. >> amazing diana, thank you. good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker and david faber live at post nine. morgan brennan has the morning off. yields are up and the vix is down as the white house plans to renominate jay powell as fed chair and governor lael brainard as vice chair. the impact of that decision through the hour, leslie. >> that's right. we're already 30 points into the trading session. here are some of the big movers we are watching starting with
rivian, falling in early trading following news that ford and rivian dropped plans to develop an electric vehicle. rivian shares up more than 50% since its ipo this month but down 4.5% today. drugmakers moderna and buy i don't know beyond tech study results for vaccine recipients aged 12 to 15 space soaring after sending a rocket into orbit over the weekend joining spacex rocket lab and virgin orbit. we'll talk about it with ceo chris kemp tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. eastern >> meantime back to our lylan mi to nominate jerome powell as fed chair. >> the white house will introduce powell as his pick and lael brainard as the nominee for vice chair at a press conference this afternoon as fed chairman, the white house
said powell provided steady leadership during challenging times, and the white house called brainard one of the country's leading macro economists now i'm told the president discussed his decision with both powell and brainard on friday and in a statement, president biden made a point to say that they shared his focus on inclusive growth, financial stability, and the urgency of addressing climate change. now that is important because two democratic senators, sheldon white house and jeff merkley warned they believe powell has not been aggressive enough on this issue and that they do not support him. senator elizabeth warren has also announced she will not vote to confirm him either. however, powell is likely to get republican support the ranking member of the senate banking committee pat toomey today said that powell acted swift throw respond to stabilize financial markets during the pandemic and worked constr constructively with congress on fiscal policy and looks forward to confirming him. the senate opened to brainard as
vice chair despite her approach to bank regulation the announcement leave three vac kis including the vice chair of supervision position and the white house would announce those nominations starting early next month but for now, leslie, we are expecting to hear from both powell and brainard during the press conference this afternoon. back over to you. >> we will be looking forward to that as well as the news to come next month thank you. also want to get to our senior economic reporter steve liesman with some more reaction to today's news. steve? >> yeah. and some market reaction a hawkish trade rifling through bond and currency markets as stocks rally with the announcement that jay powell will get that second term. may probabilities for rate hike up near 50%. we haven't really been there before that's the measure you want to watch to see if the market thinks the taper will be sped pup 72% for june all the way to the right of the
graphic you see a 58% probability of a second hike it will be 50 basis points through december 58% for that hike. two year yield rising. gold is selling off and the dollar higher on the idea that powell would be somewhat faster to withdraw stimulus than fed governor lael brainard would have been had she been named chair. stocks rallied despite higher yields likely because equities welcome country new which state and hate change. they treaded water during first couple years, see it on the left part of your screen as powell raised rates 175 basis points, cut by the name amount, equities have rallied during the pandemic in part because of what elon was talking about. much comes from powell and the fed's forceful response to the pandemic they cut rates to zero in one month faster than bernanke and yellen, added 4.4 trillen to the balance sheet, and expanded fed
purchases for the first time to include corporate and municipal bonds. news that the president would nominate brainard as vice chair, not as vice chair bank supervision notably. president biden has three other spots to fill on the board of governors and two bank presidents going to be named as full time after a search powell will face the task of undoing the massive stimulus he helped put in place battling inflation, reaching for full employment with many new faces to come around the table guys >> steve, thank you. want to get more on president biden's decision to keep fed chair jerome powell in his seat. let's bring in former federal reserve president and ceo charles mass placer. what do you think of the decision >> i think it was predicted. i think given the choices that biden was looking at, i favored jay as the next appointment.
i would like to make one point, and that is, that when powell was nominated the first time, someone asked me, what's the most important challenge facing the fed, and i responded i think the most important challenge was preserving central bank and federal reserve independence and monetary policy. i don't think that's gone very well over the last four years, so i'm a little disappointed in that i think that's still the challenge going forward. i think in the near term, monetary policy direction is going to be moved towards tightening and i think that's a good thing but whether lael or jay would have been chair, would have made much difference in that, primarily because the bulk of the fomc is moving in that direction and i think that's inevitable at this point i think it was a fine choice i still think big challenges ahead both in policy and in
protecting the fed's independence we'll see how that plays out with these appointments and other appointments likely to come. >> charles, what are you looking at then when you question the independence of the fed or at least look at the last -- this previous term of jerome powell and say, well, it hasn't been necessarily preserved as much as you would like >> well, i think the new strategy was unwise. i think bowed to political pressure in many ways, and i think that the splitting the ticket, so to speak, as jay did, as the president did, with jay as chair and lael as vice chair, sort of represents the two divisions that's going to happen i think the fed is under a lot of political pressure. some of it them created themselves but they've got to step back and
make the best decisions for the economy and not let themselves be seen as being pushed around by political forces outside of that >> charles, as steve and elon mentioned biden has three vacant seats to fill including vice chair for supervision. any preferences on who might be able to fill those seats anything you're looking for? >> well, i think it's going to be interesting, i was a bit surprised, a bit, not a lot, but that the president appointed lael as vice chair of the board of governors and not as chair of supervision. i think that's an interesting move in the sense that now you wonder who will be the vice chair of supervision, appointments may come in that, and whether this is all about politics at the end that appointment may
end up being either someone more aggressive at regulating banks than governor brainard may have been, or whether it will be someone in the other direction it should be very interesting to see how these appointments stack up as a hole as you say, more appointments to come, but stack up as a whole as to whether this board will end up being more political or less political. >> charles some would argue accelerating a taper or raising rates in an election year, is the hallmark of an independent central bank in terms of getting political pressure from the white house. >> well, people interpret it that way and that can be the case or it may not be the case it kind of depends on the standards. but certainly the willingness of the feds to do that in many
cases tends to solidify their independence but that's not always the case because sometimes that's not even the right option to consider yes, that's a factor, but i think the other thing is how much will the fed's policies be shaped by items outside of monetary policy, whether it be climate change, whether it be new regulatory moves to force the banks to do things, more credit policies, where the fed intervenes and the allocation of credit across the economy. i think those are the kind of things that are now on the table to reflect the fed being pushed in accepting those pushes and to enter too what might otherwise be considered fiscal policies of
allocations and goals that they're not particularly suited to achieve >> charles, thank you. >> thank you charles plaster. >> still to come we're going to take you live to one of the largest airports in the country with holiday travel almost back to precovid levels, some of the top gainers as well for the s&p this morning tesla will be among them as we have record highs on the s&p and nasdaq best one-day gain for the dow since the middle of october. more "squawk othstetis ckn minute. " [energetic music th] what's strong with me? i know when i'm ready to run. what's strong with me? i can find strength in a rest day. what's strong with me? there are some nights i sleep so well... i'm ready for anything.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." phil lebeau is live from o'hare airport with how airlines are bracing for another busy holiday season, almost reaching prepandemic highs. i spent many of my college years going home for thanksgiving from o'hare what are you seeing there today? >> reporter: leslie, you would love it if you were flying home today here at o'hare it's relatively quiet. we have to the seen the long lines, the flight boards show very few delays, almost no delays, and this is going to be a busy week to the just here at o'hare but around the country. you will see longer than usual lines. 4.2 million people are expected to fly during the thanksgiving holiday travel period according to aaa by the way that's down 9% compared to the same time in 2019, easily most number of people that we have seen flying during a holiday since before
the pandemic that said, one of the areas that will be in focus is what's happening with unruly passengers this has become a staple of a number of reports we've done over the last six, nine months because the number of incidents, the rate has dropped, the frequency is dropping, 5,240 cases reported this year, to surprise, 72% of these are mask related people who were either told to put on their masks, they didn't, you know the routine there. in terms of the airlines, we're looking at the big four here, they are all confident they have enough staffing and they've reduced their schedules so they haven't overextended themselves so they're prepared for the holiday travel season. provided we don't have any bad storms anywhere, we should see a relatively clean thanksgiving travel period in terms of the profitability, things could be better for the airlines. take a look at gulf coast jet fuel and how much it has changed in the last year up approximately 70% guys, that's one reason why the
airlines, they want to get as many flights to their destination without incident, without cancellations, so that they can get as profitable as possible in the fourth quarter it's going to be tough with the way jet fuel prices have been rising steadily over the last several months back to you. >> it's amazing how much things have changed on the airline front over the last year or so i want to pivot to a story you reported on friday about ford and rivian severing their plans to develop electric vehicles, sending rivian shares down 5% today. what more can you tell us about this kind of broken partnership? >> reporter: yeah. you know, leslie, we reported when the ipo was happening, i said it, and i'm standing by this in terms of look, i don't expect ford and rivian to be close partners, didn't expect it during the ipo, even leading up to the ipo nobody in the auto industry expected it. it doesn't mean that it's a fractured relationship, that ford has some kind of an issue
with rivian or rivian has have been issue with ford they are developing electric vehicles on their own and has been the case for some time, so the fact that they finally said we're scrapping any plans to jointly develop an electric vehicle, not a surprise within the auto industry. frankly, it probably is not a surprise to most institutional investors. if there's any surprise it might be the retail investor like i thought these guys were working together, no, because nobody expected that. >> fascinating development, the rivian story is so juicy, phil thanks phil lebeau sticking with the holiday theme this morning, we're joined by retail analyst matt boss looking at key names to watch in the sector matt, good to see you. >> you too thanks for having me on, carl. >> i was think back to something you told cramer in april, that was that we were in wave one of a multiwave recovery, q3 is when things would get really exciting, might be the best
back-to-school season of our careers and i wonder if that has extended to holiday or supply chain has gottent in way >> it has. we hosted a global brands conference last week the number one take away by far was the underlying strength of the u.s. consumer that you're seeing we can actually track it we have consumer credit card data and it's peaking. we're up more than 20% relative to prepandemic levels for overall consumer spending and that's despite, as you reported, you're seeing improvement in the underlying lodging and airlines data as well, nearly 20% improvement in underlying travel and at the same time, i'm seeing my discretionary spending to your point out of a very strong back-to-school, that is now peaking relative to consumer spending, directly into holiday. >> can we take true comfort in the inventory numbers out of
depot and walmart, or is there a universe of smaller retailers that aren't going to have enough for holiday? >> so what's happening is, demand is exceeding supply, but that said, there's ample inventory on hand that i think we end up seeing the best delay again, you know, as you said for back to school i think it follows directly through to holiday the best holiday that we probably see in our careers. we published a piece this morning, we see 7% same-store sales. it's nearly double for our coverage across apparel, footwear and accessories you will see a number of key themes you've seen, casualization, very strong denim has an underlying cycle that i think is multiyear. i think accessories is well positioned to answer your question, i think there's ample inventory. maybe it's not the exact item or skew retailer by retailer, but as a whole, i think you're going to see very strong consumer
numbers out of this holiday. >> based on your channel checks, dooufl like the supply chain bottlenecks have loosened in recent weeks >> it's a really, really good question because we just met with over 20 retailers and what they're saying is, production is not as much the concern at this point going forward. our internal southeast asia checks are actually pointing to nearly 90% of protection is now resumed coming out of november, so i think the production out of vietnam, that peak concern and uncertainty has passed i think now it's much more tied to the cost of transportation, which our analysts on the transport side actually cited this morning that they believe that come the -- back half of 2022 he believes we will start to see much more of a normalization on that front too. i think you have a margin catalyst on the horizon tied to price increases that the retailers are passing through,
freight that i think is transitory and production which i think is nearly fully ramped at this point. >> matt, you like an awful lot of names you have overweights all over the place. i guess the question is, how do you prioritize >> yeah. great question, carl a couple themes. as i said, the mega trend i think coming out of this holiday into next year is casualization. that's two-pronged it's active, nike, lulu lemon, under armor and also denim, levy's and for us american eagle. i think theme number two is, at brick and mortar it's all about value and convenience especially with the inflation that i think is running through for the middle to lower-income customer. that would be dollar stores, dollar general, five below and off pricers, burlington, tjx and you have the move towards e-commerce to me it's transformational for the global brands i think the majority come out
with higher margin profiles but to the accessory companies, that's where you've seen the biggest change relative to prepandemic that i think is here to stay. >> finally, matt, all through the year we talked about retail and consumer and apparel through the lens of stimulus checks, looking surrounding the timing of those checks. how do you view what some argue will be a fiscal drag in 2022? >> you'll come off of the peak, meaning you think about moving into 2022, we will lap the stimulus and the checks, but i think the more important piece here is, you've had multiple years of wages rising. you have unemployment at two-year lows and the debt service ratio for the consumer nearly 40-year lows. i don't think this was a 2021 bounce i think this is a multiyear underlying strength of this u.s. consumer that's what we're hearing from our companies and that was the number one theme out of the conference and to me, that's
going to be the number one driver as we move into 2022 and pote potentially into 2023. >> wow matt, it is always really good to get your take great to see you as always. >> thanks for having me. >> before we head to a break, take a look at shares of acti activision blizzard and this was a stock hovering around $80 towards the end of october you can see it's down another 3% down almost $20 in a short amount of time the walt journal saying the ceo would consider stepping down if he can't fix the company's culture. we've got a downgrade to a sell at mkm partners. the analysts saying we do not believe these problems are going to go away until a clear resolution is reached starting with the removal of ceo bobbie codic and from what they've read in press reports and social media, employee morale is low which could impact game development and the quality of business partnerships.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." time for our etf spotlight taking a look today at the tech sector spider ticker xlk trading at an all-time high and outperforming the s&p by about 8% this year its second largest holding, apple making up more than 20% of the fund the nikkei reporting the company won't be able to deliver new ipads in key asian markets and iphone delivery delays are not as bad, far longer than a typical year not impacting the stock, though. shrugging off that news, hitting a fresh intraday record high this morning up about 3%. "squawk on the street" will be right back.
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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. law enforcement officials tell nbc news a 39-year-old wisconsin man is being questioned about the suv that sped through a christmas parade in a milwaukee suburb sunday killing five people and injuring more than 40 police say he is in custody as a person of interest but is not being called a suspect at this time and has not been charged with a crime in connectionwith the incident. closing arguments are under way at the trial of three men charged in the 2020 death of ahmed aubrey, a black man jogging through a neighborhood in brunswick, georgia. the prosecution telling the jury that defendants assumed arbery committed a crime and decided to make a citizen arrest and illegally killed him when he would not stop and talk with them a. another high-profile trial, second day of deliberations for the jury in a civil suit against
white nationalists at the unite the right rally in charlottesville. the white house says 95% of federal workers have met today's covid vaccine deadline 90% received at least one shot, the rest have a pending or approved request for an exemption or extension you're now up to date. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much, rahel solomon. about an hour into trading here s&p gets a new record high as the president selects jerome powell to lead the fed for a second term. mike santoli joins us to talk about that and the sideways drift for a couple weeks. >> yeah. carl, we obviously got release to the upside with the somewhat as expected and, therefore, familiar and easy to digest decision on powell we have a seasonally strong period here into thanksgiving week and we're coming out of this lull as you mentioned two weeks. the s&p does nothing below the surface a lot more rocky and i do think right now we're kind of grabbing some of that standard seasonal upside in
one big bite today even today if you look within the market it's not uneven what we have had for a while is another one of niece phases where it's a top heavy, fairly narrow rally, and only certain ones let's be clear like nvidia, the ev stocks, apple at this point and not, for example, paypal, square and fin techtech and things like that it could be another one of these benign rotations we're coming out of it right now. what is interesting about the market's reaction to the powell announcement is that it sort of goes against that notion that all the market creates is more dovishness it wants the predictable response function that we know powell has and probably that sort of steadiness trying to balance inflation and employment growth >> as we look ahead to the remainder of the year it's shocking we're here at thanksgiving but in yourcolumn out over the weekend you noticed
the statistic from bestoke which said when the s&p 500 is up 20% by thanksgiving week i can't imagine there are it too many statistically data points to turn to there, but the market does tend to perform no better than average from that point through year end, which is about 2% are there any indications that this year will be different, that we could see a more significant rally into year end or do you think it will fit with more of the seasonality trend you highlighted? >> first of all that's the average and the average for all years even if you weren't up 20% coming into this week. i think very few of those years have you done just 2%. i think you have had some years where you get the final now risch. this year very few pullbacks and not had one of the down a% years. it looks like years of better history where you did get better upside after thanksgiving. obviously we're all talking about probabilities and, you know, precedent and the almanac
stuff as opposed to what's really driving things in terms of fundamentals and what we expect for next year that has been the pattern and i think the big takeaway is just because you're up 25% as we're coming into this week and this year, it doesn't mean as if you've used up the upside by thanksgiving. >> that reminds me of the morgan stanley call, mike, from a few weeks ago that fundamental picture for stocks in their view was deteriorating and the seasonality trade could continue, quote, into thanksgiving but not much longer i guess there's a couple more days to see if that stands or not. >> there is. and i look at a lot of stuff that suggests, you know, well above 47 hundred and things are starting to get stretched again. i'm not sure why you would necessarily think that somehow the fundamentals are going to drive some reckoning after thanksgiving if you look at the city economic surprise index moving into the right direction, there was decent upside to earnings. now revisions are not following that well. earnings revisions are to the necessarily looking that great, but maybe that just means for
the fourth quarter we're leaving further ability to surprise to the upside down the road i get it, why you would say things look expensive, but maybe it also tells you that's why it's been kind of a selective and narrow market because it's not as if everything is getting better for the average stock or overall macro. it's that look, we have money to be kind of staying in the market, allowing equity exposures to go higher, momentum tends to work here and a lot of tax law selling happening in small caps and against that is, a refusal to take capital gains until the new tax year. >> good talk thanks, mike mike santoli. >> ubs floor operations who joins us on the phone line, art, good morning to you. i would love to hear what you think the powell news means for the snashgts. >> -- market >> i told you two weeks ago they had to go with powell and i
think that was part of the decision i think that people like his adviser jared bernstein, i kind of have a gut feel that his fingerprints are on this case. i think the market, i think, is in line with what santoli said it wasn't that they were looking for dovish if you look what happened, the yield on the two-year notched up we got a couple other yields notching up. in fact, the market is telling us after the announcement that they see the tapering ending in june and the first rate hike coming in july, right after it things kind of tightened up. at 11:30, a two-year auction, at 1:00 a five-year auction, but i think the market said thank you very much, you didn't rock the
boat, and they're happy with it at this point and i think that's what you're seeing in the market reaction >> yep we've gotten supportive tweets from senators toomey and romney. do you think there's any lingering risk maybe brainard doesn't have the votes on her part >> no. i think she'll get in. i think powell will get 75 votes or somewhere around there and she'll do well i don't think -- the interesting thing they did not make her the vice chair in charge of regulation and that kind of structure, so that takes the idea of controversy out. that may be adjusted at a future point, but i think she should not have a problem i think this is a decent one two combination and what they wanted to get, no disruption. i think the market reaction you're seeing the market is
happy with no disruption and i think thereof it should [ inaudible ]. >> art, the financials seeing a nice bounce on this news today i'm curious your thought, do you think the way that this ticket is structured, does that have any change in terms of how banks are regulated? >> no, i don't think so. you know, i think it's kind of steady as she goes, and i forget who said it earlier, might have been liesman, but remember that they tend -- the fed is an interesting place. it may argue amongst themselves, but when they come out they always look for a kind of consensus. so i don't think -- you might hear from senator warren and others that they want to see different regulatory structure, but i think the fed will move in a slow plotting fashion and so i don't think you're going to see
much of a change i think that's what got the market happy here, saying thank you, no surprises and we'll keep moving. >> art, it's kind of hard to ignore the spread between the rhetoric and the response in europe, especially austria and today germany, and the general mood surrounding caseloads and hospitalizations here. it's up but the market clearly is looking past it why? >> i think the market feels that u.s. is in better shape, certainly, than europe although i must say, there was some shakiness and nervousness and a lot of demonstrations in europe and the market, there was not much of a move i don't think that they're buying into the idea that any chance that covid is actually over, but we do have a lot more therapy and treatments for it, so i don't think it is that awful specter that hung over
things i think the full lockdown in austria is seen as somewhat drastic and let's see who comes out of that. no, i think covid is clearly a concern, but it is not -- it's not the bubonic plague it seemed to be when it first hit. >> we certainly remember those days, art. appreciate it very much. great to see you or at least hear you >> thank you happy thanksgiving thank you. shares of best buy still under performing the broader market for the full year, but take a look at the last few months on something of a tear, up almost 32% since the end of september. the company will be reporting results before the bell tomorrow and we will see with its ceo korie barry at 10:00 a.m. on "squawk on the street."
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." r let's get to rick santelli with the reaction in the bond market with today's fed chair decision. short end of the curve seeing a pretty nice bounce today >> absolutely. we definitely saw some selling let's go to the whiteboard as this news hit, definitely stocks moved higher, rates moved higher and we had what's call a flattening not to be left out, the dollar index did pretty well too. didn't have a huge move, but it's still higher. i pick the 30s minus 2 spread and see how it flat frnds the 140s to the 130s it's leveling off a bit. interest rates did move higher you know you move from 52, 53, 75 on 2s, your major flattening. 30-year bonds didn't move too much but there's a lot going on
here once we get past what markets did and we look overseas, bund yields hardly moved at all that's something that needs to be discussed further there wasn't any shock value, in my opinion, to reaffirming the nomination of jay powell as a matter of fact, i thought the low volatility leading up to this was a big tell that's the way it would go. my question is, can lael brainard get 51 votes? let's be honest here politics has been injected into this big time. all my sources, all the water cooler talk is something like, well, she's pretty much on the left, she's very political world war to partisanship, she has participated donating to the 2016 hillary campaign. many thought was important with regard to fed, fed officials and politics i don't think it's going to be a lay-up with regard to 50 votes or needing more but i will tell you this, the scary part is, is
it going to come back down to joe manchin? again? carl, back to you. all right. thank you. rick santelli. coming up in the next hour, elizabeth holmes back on the stand after testifying friday for the first time in her criminal trial we will be live at the courthouse when "tech check" begins in ten minutes. dow ngg hainon to a 235-point gain we're back after this. this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.
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looking at some video here of elizabeth holmes entering the courtroom today after her surprise appearance on the stand on friday. we're going to have more coverage on "techcheck" in a few moments, but the trial obviously well into its progress many, many weeks, but that was a bit of a curve ball that we got as she appeared on friday. meantime, get a sector sort here with dominic chu. >> a lot of green on the screen, carl stocks are higher, s&p and nasdaq notching fresh record hies now within the consumer discretionary sector, action related to travel and leisure. casino stocks, wynn among the
best performers in the s&p 500 so far today the cruise lines, norwegian, royal caribbean just off their session highs after a very strong start after the opening bell the move higher comes despite rising covid cases especially in europe kept travel stocks under pressure so far under the past week so keep an eye on those travel names especially within consumer discretionary. more "squawk on the street" up ahead. keep it right here, guys competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work...
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all right. mega cap tech continues its tear take a look at some of biggest names. of course apple is if largest market cap company at 2.7 trillion a new high microsoft hitting new highs and nvidia, leslie, $860 billion market cap company it was only a few weeks ago it was 700 billion. that was an event. >> the big just keep getting bigger and with that, we turn to bitcoin which is getting smaller
today because it's lower it's down about 1.7% in trading today. for more we bring in cumberland global head chris zulche joins us now thank you for being here i have to ask your opinion, the news of the day we've been talking about all morning is that of the renomination of jay powell as fed chair. is there any read-through? >> i think the renomination for powell is net positive he's gone on record saying he doesn't intend to ban crypto assets and taken a stance that stable coin market use some additional regulation which i think are both positive if your goal is long-term. now, as we peel that back a little bit, it's important to note that powell had an accommodative policy historically which led to 6.2% consumer price inflation year over year in october, which is a three-decade high. so if you're playing the bitcoin trade inflation hedge, i think this continues to play out in
that area. >> what are the flows suggest? you have a unique window into how traders are positioning right now, given that perspective, what do you suggest happens in the rest of the year? >> yeah. so this 50,000 level seemed to have some gravity to it. where we paused before the etf launch and pulled back before the etf rally and posted all time highs 69,000. where we're settling today from our perspective seems to be buying both the bitcoin and l-1 names to tune of 3 to 1 in terms of notional terms. the only real selling we're seeing from our institutional counterparties are on the defy names and seeing interesting options activity the one-week option are sold and longer dated seem to be bought by the market. seems like the short-term profit taking backed with consolidation
levels setting up for a bull run. >> what do you think is the catalyst for that? is there something else or inflation? >> it's a little bit of everything the reason why crypto is super interesting is every headline either crypto or macro tends to matter here. on the positive side, we have seen el salvador announce they were going to spend 500 million of their 1 billion bond to put crypto on their nation's balance sheet and seen things like fed governor come out and say recently that bitcoin is essentially digital gold on the negative side we had the tax policy changes associated with structure bill as well as the creditors told they'll get some amount payout that dates back to 2016 '17 so it's a little bit of a mixed bag, but that's why it's fun >> yeah. bitcoin city quite an interesting headline this morning as you mentioned with el salvador creating a volcano-powered energy supply
for bitcoin mining you see this as a positive for bitcoin? >> i do. i think it's a positive for bitcoin. i think it's a positive for innovation and i think it's a positive for people financial inclusion. one of the big narratives has been that bitcoin in particular isn't necessarily green friendly but yet we see in reaction to that the industry rapidly evolving and innovating to find ways to power system that allows for inclusion like volcanic emissions. i don't see that happening in terms of dollars issuance. so from my perspective, i think the sky is the limit in terms of how we innovate towards powering the crypto market. >> yeah. it will be interesting to see if it becomes a tourist destination as well. chris, thank you very much for joining us today >> thank you it's good to be here last 30 seconds coming back to a theme that leslie just stressed the big getting bigger. apple is worth noting yet again i think because it is now up
24.1% for the year you can see the s&p is also up but apple almost matching the s&p's performance for the year most of this year it had been a significant laggard, making up for it in these last few weeks let's call it as we head towards the end of the year. the 2.7 trillion dollar market value. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now ♪ ♪ >> good monday morning, welcome to "techcheck. i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt. deirdre is off today fed chair powell is tapped for second term. what that means for big tech and growth names as they lead the nasdaq higher this morning then we'll break down how rates relate to a few high-flying pandemic stocks that have come down to earth.