tv The Exchange CNBC November 19, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EST
we love crypto on a use case basis. there's other ways to play it but it is a liquid way to do it. i like ethe. >> it has been an interesting time for crypto, whether it is a statement on overall risk statement, who knows but we will watch and see what happens next week. it is good to see everybody. all of you, thanks so much for watching, too. have a great weekend we will see you on the other side "the exchange" begins now. ♪ thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead on what is shaping up to be a busy friday here on "the exchange." covid jitters are spooking the markets with austria becoming the first major country to go back into lockdown the dow, tech stocks gained thanks to falling yields we'll have the latest. policymakers took what they learned from the financial crisis and applied it to fighting covid-19. was it a mistake we will look at what is not working now and could cause problems in future plus, retail names to stuff your stocking with as we're
about a month away from christmas. we begin with the split markets. dom, we can't keep up. >> claritin making comments about whether or not the inflationary upward is there let's talk about the real phish and pull in the markets right now. kelly mentioned the under performance, markedly so in the dow industrials down about one-half of 1% we are off the lows of the session right now. for the broader-based s&p 500, we are up 7 right now. at the highs of the day we were up roughly 13 points -- rather here, up 13 points and then down 7 points or so at the low. you can see tilting more towards the high end of the range here but the nasdaq composite stands out. it gets a star, a gold one there because it hits a record high. it is right near the session highs right now, up two-thirds of 1%. the falling yields on the sovereign bond side of things in the united states are part of the story. we can see the ten-year treasury note yield benchmark, 1.55%. it has taken a leg lower here
but you can see trapped in the range we've seen over the past couple of months we've seen the ten-year note yield move higher an ld lower in the range, so whether or not it sticks we'll see we're seeing weakness in travel and leisure weaken american airlines is down about 1% live nation is down 1.5% booking holdings and royal caribbean all in the down 1% to 2% range, 3% range you can see here but, remember, with these names in the intraday session, kelly, we're well off the session lows for many of the stocks we'll see if a bit of a reversal is taking hold here. back to you. >> dom, thank you. meantime, trading activity in single stock options hit a record high earlier this month with 945 billion dollars traded on november 5th according to goldman sachs. today three-quarters of a trillion dollars worth of options are set to expire.
bob pisani has the names dominating the recent activity and the impact it is having on the broader markets. bob. >> kelly, the options and future world expanded in recent years it is very different the main action used to be in quarterly options or stocks, for stocks and indexes but much of the action has now shifted to monthly and even weekly options. individual stock options in particular have been taken up enthusiastically by the robin hood/reddit crowd who favor monthly expirations in things like the faang stocks. recently in electric vehicle names. they particularly favor call options. these are bets that would win when the underlying stocks rise. most include things like apple, tesla, lose ild, facebook, amazon right now these are the most active ones apple has seen a big increase in call volume, a favorite going into expiration this afternoon judging by the call volume and stock price, tesla's momentum is slowing a bit.
open interest is smaller in puts, puts are bets the stock will decline alibaba stands out it is new on the list. there's a pile of puts that went in the money in the last couple of days as alibaba disappointed on earnings and has seen a 10% drop in price. kelly, it is quite remarkable to see this explosion in monthly options, particularly call options this year with the reddit/robinhood crowd >> what is the exact as we see more in options than stock themselves >> it is not quite right to say the options tail is wagging the dog at this point but it has caught a lot of people's attention. remember something, are you in an up market, so at the start of a new options season or a monthly options, you buy some options slightly out of the money, in an up market they will tend to go into the money. if you do it month after month, suddenly you think you are ainous but you're not you are in an up market.
we haven't had the whole new system of movement to monthly and even weekly options really tested in a down market or a more volatile market we'll see. >> fair enough bob, thank you so much we appreciate it bob pisani tracking things down at the new york stock exchange the dow, meantime, is on track for the second straight weekly loss as the lockdown austria has renewed worried about the pandemic airlines like united, american and delta taking a hit boeing lower as it faces a separate report from the "wall street journal" that it is slow s slowing manufacturing even further. joining me is the chief strategy analyst. chris, welcome before we delve into that broadly, what do you think of the rearing of the head of covid once again >> kelly, thanks it is nice to be back with you i think it is not a total
surprise it was last november when cases started to go up again if you look at a map of the united states, for example, you will see it is not red states or blue states, it is cold states versus hot states. as people go indoors up north, covid is coming back that's true in europe as well as you see norway and germany much worse off, for example, than spain. so what i think is it will get worse before it gets better but we're nowhere near where we were a year ago we have vaccines, terrific drug for treatment of folks who get covid. icu beds are widely available. so i don't see another lockdown on the horizon here in the united states. one, it won't be as bad. two, there's real lockdown fatigue that will push against that >> i hope you are right. it is sort of jarring to see things normalize, especially like you said. i mean a cold state like new jersey is going back to normal and traffic is higher and events are back to normal and everything is well >> right >> let's turn and talk about boeing, which could be affected by this but also by the dream liner issues you love the stock
you still think it could double. >> i do. i do people say, oh, there's a lot of hair on it i laugh and i say, are you kidding? this stock is sasquatch there's so much hair on the stock. for that reason we like it, because in two years these problem could be behind it unlike any other kind of blue chip great american company, this stock is still selling for half what it was two years ago so if you believe, like we do, that, a, they can solve their own specific issues -- again, 787 would be one that reared its head today b, folks will go back to flying in airplanes again over the next three years, they don't need to do it next month, it could be a terrific stock it is hard to think of a stock that's not a big tech stock that could go up 100% in a couple of years just to get back to where it used to be. >> it still reminds me of a company -- maybe i could compare it with intel where there have been obvious missteps. you know, we have seen the rise of rivals like nvidia whereas
intel has been a bigger struggle, but with boeing it doesn't matter because there's only two big plane makers. >> exactly intel used to be the best in the world. now, you know, it is arguably taiwan semi, which we own, and samsung. here it is visa and mastercard, it is airbus and boeing. there's no other place to go also, you know, 80% of the world's population has never been on an airplane. it is nice to think of a market like that that's still wide open, and, again, in three years it could be gangbusters again. >> you raised visa, so let's spend a moment on that one, which we are showing it on screen it is another one of your picks here that one i might argue with you that there's no competition. you know, you have seen what is going on with buy now, pay later. obviously crypto, the bitcoin network. even in europe where they're building their own payment system starting with peer-to-peer doesn't it mean there's new rifl rivals that never existed and that's why retailers are pushing
back to lower fees >> i think so. obviously you are see in amazon is the latest example of pushing back on fees in the united kingdom. first of all, i would take it as a great tribute to amazon and investors should take note, wow, we have a customer big enough to singly pushback against visa it is impressive on amazon what i would say is this is a dynamic situation, not static. so visa is smart they understand that there are these lots of different payment options, and they're expanding in different ways. still, most of the world -- and i get back to the boeing example. you have a huge middle class growing all over the world and most of the transactions are still done in cash we see quite a long runway why i'm excited about visa today and not, say, four months ago is that it is down 20%. again, we don't think it is fundamental long-term issues we think this is a good entry point that you get every two or three years. you can hold this stock for five or ten years i think the runway is really that long. >> and, finally, chris, why visa
over mastercard? because mastercard does seem to be a little more involved with exposure to crypto and things like that. even those in the payment space, the analysts themselves who are worried about disruption would kind of favor mastercard over visa for that reason >> well, kelly, you know, it is funny. i'm going to be -- i can be intelligent and give you three reasons why you should pick visa over mastercard but i am asked the question a lot i went back and did a regression analysis they're 90% correlated so if you feel more comfortable with mastercard for whatever reasons, you know, you are probably going to do just well they're more correlated, for example, than ford or general motors or any of the other companies. so the honest answer that we shouldn't tell you because it is a deep secret is that it doesn't really matter. >> it doesn't matter, exactly. >> in the long term i think it is right >> i praise your honesty final quick question, what happens with interest rates from here >> i have to tell you i'm pessimistic. i think the fed has been our best friend in the market for the last 18 months, and i'm a little afraid a year from now
they won't be returning our calls. i think that's because wage inflation, as we've started to see already, i think it is going to become a bigger and bigger problem. it is not going to go away you know, oil and houses, they can go up and down, but wages once they start going up, it is hard to reverse them i think that will force the fed's hand so i think six, nine months from now they will be significantly higher we can live with that because earnings should come through, but the question is what will the market be willing to pay for those earnings in the higher rate environment >> absolutely. >> that's a big question >> you have comments this afternoon that maybe he would look at a quicker taper. we'll see. chris, thanks so much. good to see you today. >> you too, kelly. nice to be with you. >> chris degregrisanti talking markets. cases have been spiking in european companies like germany as well. the pan european stock 600 index and germany's index fell a third of a percent today while
austria's plunged for the worst day of the year. we will pause and pivot to our own shep smith standing by here in cnbc. shepard, we had a lot of news we are waiting. a couple of big issues. >> reporter: let's listen in as the kyle rittenhouse trial we believe is at the verdict stage. the judge asked the jury if they have a verdict remember, he is the now 18 year old in kenosha, wisconsin, august 25th of last year, said he went to help people and protect property when this city was in the throes of violence after white cops shot a young black man. during that period, he shot two -- shot and killed two people, shot and maimed a third. now we believe after three days of deliberations the jury has a verdict. let's listen.
if you have been following this trial -->> the defendant will rise and face the jury and harken to its verdicts state of wisconsin versus kyle rittenhouse as to the first count of the information, joseph rosenbaum, we the jury find the defendant, kyle h. rittenhouse, not guilty. as to the second count of the information, richard ma guinness, we the jury find the defendant, kyle h. rittenhouse, not guilty as to the third count of the information, unknown male, we the jury find the defendant, kyle h. rittenhouse, not guilty. as to the fourth count of the information, anthony huber, we the jury find the defendant, kyle h. rittenhouse, not guilty. as to the fifth count of the
information, gaige rose caltrans, we the jury find the defendant, kyle h. rittenhouse, not guilty members of the jury, these are your unanimous verdicts? is there anyone who does not agree with the verdicts as read? do we wish the jury polled >> no. >> okay. folks, your job is done. we started just about three weeks ago, and i told you that it could last two weeks and two days this is three weeks. you were a wonderful jury to work with -- kyle rittenhouse, 18 years old, who shot and killed two people last august and shot and maimed a third, found not guilty on all counts. those counts were reckless home side, use of a dangerous wep one, first degree intentional homicide and other charges not guilty across the board from this jury in kenosha, wisconsin,
today. kyle rittenhouse made the case during his trial that his father lives in kenosha, he lives across the state line. he saw the violence that was happening in the city, the burning of property after this police shooting, and decided he wanted to go over and help he made the case that he was going to clean off graffiti and there was video of him doing that at night he was going to help protect property at a car dealership as it turned out, he ventured off from the car dealership and ended up in a series of confrontations over a period of about three minutes, and he said when he shot the three victims he did so in self-defense. he said it was his belief that he had no other choice he had to stop the threat, as he put it in trial. the prosecution was claiming he did this on purpose. they called him a chaos tourist. said he was on a mission of vigilante justice, that he had gone to do the work of the police and taken the law into his own hands and he should be found guilty of homicide he was not not guilty on all charges. the prosecutor said before this that they would not be speaking
after this case no matter what happened the defense attorney said that they'll have a news conference a little bit later from their own quarters for now let's go to our legal analyst david henderson, civil rights attorney, cnbc contributor who has been following the case along with us from the beginning david, any surprises >> shep, i can't say there are any surprises here i always thought this case was going to be a very difficult one from the beginning i thought that the self-defense was going to be an issue, and so i cannot say i'm shocked i'm disappointed, not shocked. >> what was your read on this case, david? >> you know, my read from the beginning was that really what you have to do in this trial, shep, is indirectly you are putting the police on trial, you are also putting gun laws on trial. the way people who own and carry guns feel about the self-defense claims, it departs from legal analysis it is very, very difficult to get them to see it differently than they tend to want to believe. >> so this case is sort of reflective of our politics, our tribal politics today.
this has become a rooting ground for one side of politics and an area of concern from the other >> that's 100% true. >> -- more than anything >> that's 100% true, shep. what i often tell people when we get in discussions about legal analysis as it relates to cases is that you are talking about trial law, the law only goes so far because you have to get past bias, and that's what persuasion is sometimes you just can't quite pierce that veil, but you also have to be honest here this trial was a bit of a mess and it was extremely confusing based on the way it was handled and it didn't help anything. >> the jury instructions were of particular notice as the judge himself admitted that his own jury instructions were confusing, and then the jury asked for copies of it, enough copies for all of the panelists to have it those jury instructions were definitely problematic >> shep, they were, because i practiced with them so i can talk to you about them when i get on the air, and i have practiced with other lawyers we were confused working through
those instructions self-defense is covered in four different parts of the instruction, and the language is different in each one of those parts. it is really hard for someone who is not an attorney to piece all of that together during deliberations. >> david henderson, thank you for your analysis throughout this i appreciate your time and your expertise. kyle rittenhouse, the 18 year old in court today, crying upon hearing the verdict. not guilty on all six counts in kenosha, wisconsin a full recap and live coverage of what follows this tonight on the news, 7:00 eastern right after jim cramer right here on cnbc for now, back to kelly for more. >> thank you so much our shepard smith following this story for us the prosecution resting in the elizabeth holmes case this afternoon. we are keeping an eye on the markets here dow is down about 200 points. dow is down about 200 points. we are back in a moment. flexshares etfs are built with advanced modeling.
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>> australia made the news last week when the chancellor announced only the unvaccinated will go into lockdown for the past week to try to stem the fourth wave of covid-19. that hasn't work out because every single day we have seen record-breaking rises in the number of people catching or testing positive for covid-19. the chancellor today had to extend the lockdown to the whole of the population. why? probably because austria has won of the, if not the lowest vaccination rates in western europe with 66% of adults being vaccinated you compare that to neighboring countries like italy where i am, for instance, where the vaccination rate is over 80% now, a lockdown, a full lockdown is nothing new, of course. we have seen it all around in the u.s. and in italy and austria as well. what is new there is austria on top of this announced starting from february of next year we
will make vaccination mandatory, and that is the first european country to do that, which makes you wonder whether it will be the only one or the last one will other countries follow? we'll see. >> claudio, what can you tell us about italy which is where you are and germany where cases are spiking but there's been no response like this >> reporter: well, in italy, cases are on the rise as in the rest of europe due to the fourth wave of the pandemic it is very much under control. the cases that we have seen here are nothing compared to what we have seen in places like austria and in germany why? because in italy there have been very, very anti-covid measures being implemented very early if you think about it, italy was the only country that is required -- that required a so-called green pass, which essentially shows you're either vaccinated or you recently recovered from covid or you took recently a negative test to go
into every public place. we had that for months now recently in the past few weeks that green pass has been applied to people who go to work every single worker in the country whether it is public or private needs to show they have a green pass if they want to go to work. so all of that combined means that italy is holding off very well in terms of dealing with new covid cases. the same can't be said for germany. in germany there are record-breaking cases of new covid cases every single day yesterday there were 65,000. that is the highest number on a single day since the start of the pandemic angela merkel, the chancellor, said that the fourth wave is hitting germany with full force. right now there's no need for a green pass like in italy here there, but they are talking about introducing a green pass to enter public places like bars and restaurants, kelly >> it is fascinating what italy has done again, giving you a couple of different ways to qualify including if you recently suffered from it maybe some ideas there as the
rest of the country will turn its ascension tension to battling this as well. claudio, thank you so much for joining us nbc's claudio la vanigne in rome tools and methods that harkened to the financial cries w crisis were used my next guest argues that the central challenge now is inflation, and the excess demand can be blamed in part on the policy response. how should policymakers try to fix the mess some would say they created? joining me is neil irwin, senior economics correspondent at "the new york times." neil, welcome. i don't think anybody blames them for trying to help the economy during, you know, the most acute phase of the crisis, but where do we go from here >> yeah, i mean, look, as late as december of last year if i looked at bond market measures, if you looked at just the tenor of economic data and the outlook, it was very shaky so it is understandable why we've had this ultra easy monetary policy, you know, $3
trillion in stimulus just since december at the same time we are kind of off our position we're out of position in terms of the macro economic policy mixed with the facts on the ground of the real economy i think the path ahead is trying to figure out how to get passed the supply chain issues and withdraw the liquidity in a way that doesn't cause recession that's the central challenge for the months ahead >> i wonder if the president will leave chair powell in place, maybe kind of blame him if that doesn't go well. i mean we don't know, right, how markets are going to take it we don't know if he is going to decide he wants brainard to be the one to be appointed and lead the fed through this it is going to be one of the biggest challenges you know, in some way the pandemic response is easy. maybe they overdid it but this phase could be very challenging. >> yeah, i think if you think about where we are right now, 6% cpi inflation, 4.6 unemployment rate but still with 0% fed fund rate and starting to taper qe, those numbers don't
align by a traditional way of thing about monetary policy, whether it is powell or brainard or a dark-horse surprise candidate, that's the big challenge to deal with we just heard comments from the vice chair earlier today suggesting they might speed up the taper sooner rather than later. i think the fed is realizing they're kind of out of position and trying to figure out how to get to tighter monetary policy that aligns with where the economy is without, you know, really breaking the system >> and the biggest pressure they will be under is if the economy slows, neil, and they don't reach their socioeconomic goals. >> yeah, nobody is better off if we have a recession next year. you know, then we're in that kind of stagflation world people warned about and have been concerned about. right now we're not in stagflation, right we have inflation, it is high, but we have quite strong growth and that seems set to continue we are on track for both nominal -- definitely nominal gdp to be above trend in 2022. how much becomes real growth and real gdp, how much is just inflation is the big, open question for 2022.
>> and the biggest of all. neil, great to see you thank you for your time today. >> thanks, kelly >> neil irwin with "the new york times" a quick check on markets show the dow still down 211 points, so it has taken a leg lower the last few moments s&p is up a point. nasdaq is up 79 on the falling bond yields and covid concern today. foot locker, look at these shares getting left behind despite beating on top an bottom line in earnings and having better than expected same-store sales but they expect global supply chain constraints to continue through the first quarter. they're down nearly 13%. foot locker ceo will be on at 3:00 p.m. talking about the issues shares of pfizer and moderna are getting a boost after the fda authorized the booster shots for all adults the panel is meeting today to review the data and is expected to approve the third doses if approved, distribution could
start this weekend check out these names. initiations by jefferies warning investors to be careful with these models there's a buy rating at the $8 level. they initiated coverage of root with a hold and lemonade with an underweight. all three names have seen big declines from the all-time highs, root down 85% from the all-time high a year ago lemon add down 71% from the all-time high in january let's take a quick break up next, surging crop prices could prompt farmers to upgrade their deere equipment. 2020 was a huge year for best buy but what does 2022 have in store? plus, the street is bullish on dollar tree's grocery. we have key numbers to watch and how to position ahead of the companies' earnings next week. stay with us
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tap for next week. we'll begin with deere shares were lowered and it has been a bumpy ride for the past month thanks to the ongoing labor dispute. analysts expect a strong quarter as surging stock prices. deere could benefit from the housing boon bringing us that story is our own seema mody and gina sanchez, ceo of global. welcome to both. seema, what are we watching for with deere >> kelly, as you pointed out the demand story is very strong. we have prices at a nine-year high the infrastructure build-out was passed, which is expected to be -- sort of drive orders for john deere's construction equipment. the real question will be how disruptive was the five-month strike we are not just talking numbers, but there was no evidence of factory shutdowns. there were some indications that there was lower productivity at some of the factories. does that mean its end users, farmers, will not be able to buy
the tractors and planters they need come harvest season are there spare parts that will be harder to procure in early 2022 that will be the main question the stock has done incredibly well, up about 9% over the past two months up by 33% so far this year then the other factor to watch will be robotics and technology. kelly, of all of the industrials, john deere has put the most money to work in research and development >> wow >> recently acquiring bear flag robotics for $250 million. >> interesting, because obviously we could see the potential, gina, for use in farm equipment. are you saying home depot could be a good read for this one? i'm sure they're happy to have the labor dispute settled. what would you do with the stock? >> i think what we're looking at, seema hit the big points there's strong demand by farmers for crops. you look at lowe's, home depot, they're experiencing great sales as well. so really at the end of the day, it comes down to whether or not
the disruption has mattered. so we haven't seen significant downgrades by analysts i think that's an important read right now because if there was an expectation we would have seen those analysts' expectations being revised down, and they stayed solid for the last four weeks going into earnings i think that we can expect a strong quarter this quarter. >> all right so gina, a buyer there, deere at 348. still 16.5 forward p/e seema, thank you we will move to best buy whose shares surged 20% this month. it is suggested they will post a 3% drop than last year but the street is more bullish, thinking less than a 1% decline. second-sale stores were up a bit. joining us is courtney regan now. with best buy how much is priced in here? >> kelly, i think a decent amount is priced in. i think analysts are not sure how to play this one near term
long term many of them look at this as a winner it is one of the last-man standings when it comes to consumer electronics they have been ahead of the game when it comes to services and thinking about ways their products can connect to each other, connect to your life, connect to your home but for this quarter i think there are still questions about the supply chain, the chip shortages, even though the ceo did come on the "today" show and say their inventory levels were good, that they were up 20% from 2019, up 50% from 2020 that was a little bit ago. i think investors want to hear about how they're looking now. they want to understand what the appliance demand was like, what the computing demand was like. microsoft and sony said video game sales looked good for them. is it going to be a follow through for best buy remember, we just spent so much money outfitting our homes and our technologies for work from home, for our kids to do school from home. how much more can you really grow on top of that? so it is a tough comparison here going forward for best buy in this quarter >> all right gina, what would you do with the
stock? i was in a store the other day for the first time in a couple of years and it is amazing how much you can see andtest and experiment with, whether it is podcasting equipment or cordless vacuums. >> yes and i think, you know, courtney's point about whether or not demand can remain as robust as during the pandemic is a big question one thing best buy has managed to do is they've managed to flex their pricing power and be able to pass some of the wage hikes and other costs that have hit them through to consumers. so i think that's a positive story. so even if they do suffer short-term supply chain pain, they should be set for the long term they actually look quite good as a whole. >> you are not worried about this, you know, being priced in? the 20% pop in the past month is pretty significant >> it is, but actually if you look through the overall p/e it is still fairly valued i don't see this as cheap, i don't see it as expensive. so, you know, the question that you really have to ask here is,
you know,, is this a short-term thing or a long-term thing a company showing pricing power, that's valuable in the long run. >> like you said the forward p/e is still under 16, so that's amazing. courtney, thank you. actually, stay right there we will talk to you about some dollar tree. that's our last component of earnings exchange today and it had a big month with shares up 34%. same-day delivery service and expansion of their combo stores with family dollar are expected to be big growth drivers in q3 and they've seen encouraging signs offering fresh produce and frozen meat. will their recent rise continue through the holidays how important are the holidays for them >> the holidays are important, kelly, but i think what is even more important is this new activist investor role, mantle ridge taking a nearly 10% stake all in when you look at all of the investments the company has made, making them their second largest shareholder. they're really focused on the under performance of family dollar they want to take a look at that, see what they can do to
increase the profitability and to close that gap between dollar -- family dollar and dollar general, which, of course, is a competitor. they think that there's room to run here and investors seem to be jazzed up about the possibility that mantle ridge, this activist investor, could really put some juice under sort of the bottom of that family dollar, which has been struggling since it was acquired you bring up some interesting points about inflation and how this could be an area where consumers are looking more to the dollar stores as they fight the higher prices. but, actually, earlier this year dollar tree said they're starting to experiment with increasing their prices as well, even just up to $1.50 in some cases. but if you use the example of dollar rama in canada as a blueprint for this, it all over time did increase the margins. consumers adopted it because they actually were able to get their hands on more merchandise, right, that $1 price point limits what you are able to sell there, especially when you have held that for decades and
decades. so i think that's really what investors are going to understand on the call are consumers accepting of those prices that were going up even before these recent inflation data numbers that we had seen and how much are they engaged with mantle ridge and accepting of their suggestions for family dollar >> really interesting. so, gina, that p/e is actually up at 24 do you like the stock here >> that one is hard. the valuation here does make it a lot more challenging, and given the fact that we're looking at a pivot in the company as to whether or not they will be able to pass this price through, you know, create that pricing power, that is a good question and one that i'm not willing to bet on at this valuation. you know, i think that they've certainly managed their supply chain issues well and they've -- they're showing themselves to have, you know, some legs, but it is expensive here >> all right ironically for a dollar store. gina, thanks so much we appreciate it gina sanchez with our trades
♪ welcome back jim cramer bought more shares of morgan stanley today after they dipped on falling rates and covid concerns but he says the end of the pandemic is still in sight and morgan stanley isn't an interest-rate sensitive bank for more sign up for the cnbc investing club newsletter by pointing your phone's camera on at this qr code on the screen or go to cnbc.com/investingkrub for more picks frank holland is live at an amazon warehouse in new jersey with some of my holiday gifts. frank. >> reporter: hey there
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welcome back to "the exchange." it is shaping up to be a strong holiday season with crash-flush consumers starting their shopping early we're a little more than a month away from christmas plr, so which retailers are best positioned for the critical period my next guest likes macy's, dick's, target and lululemon joining me is john kernan, senior retail analyst at cowan welcome back >> thank you for having me >> thanks for being here let's speak to the concern we saw target with a pull back this week. but look at macy's wow. >> yeah, sure. i don't cover target and macy's. my colleague oliver chen does, but what you are seeing is incredible strength in the consumer right now you are looking at weekly retail sales data we looked at that is multiple standard deviations abonve long-term trend. the consumer is out and spending
aggressively this holiday season it will make for a strong holiday season the worry is, is this as good as it gets given as flush as consumers are. >> i know you cover dick's and lulu you have a buy rating exempt for a couple of names like skechers and puma, is that right? >> we don't have a buy rating on everything but we like a lot lulu, nike, under armour, dick's, all of the stocks are at multi-year highs there's a lot of things underpinning the top margin structures i think those continue into next year even when you lack a top line robust environment. >> is this up 11% to 13% >> it is the best holiday growth we forecast here to 11% to 13% to roughly $884 billion for the holidays, the best holiday top-line growth since 2005 it is one for the ages
there's been $1.8 trillion of stimulus essentially directly deposited into consumer's bank accounts since march of 2020 it is almost 10% of the whole gdp. it had incredible effects on consumer demand, supply chain and inflation, but things are good for the consumer. >> how much more name would names like lulu and dick's have to run >> i think they can double earnings over the next five years, so i think there's still upside certainly some has been pulled forward with the moves in the stock prices, but i think next year you are looking at another 20% plus gains in the stocks i think the combination of earnings growth and even some more valuation expansion could take the stocks higher >> let's talk foot locker. the one we were just speaking about, bad reaction to the quarter. can't make sense of it maybe it is talk of supply chain issues sticking around what are your thoughts on it >> that's topical today. the stock is down double digits. i think there's confusion over their guidance for the fourth quarter. and a lot of people's financial models aren't in sync with maybe
what the company is saying, but stock -- if you exclude the company's stake in one of the fastest growing businesses in consumer, a privately held company foot locker holds a stake in, it trades at less than four times p/e, a cheap stock with a lot of moving pieces in the financial model right now. >> what do you think is happening with the mixed messagg i am curious if other names could be vulnerable to it as well. >> it is on supply chain on concerns -- foot locker is heavily levered to nike. it is over 75% of sales. nike obviously had some supply chain issues when vietnam shut down. >> uh-huh. >> i think there are concerns whether foot locker can comp positively in the fourth quarter in what is a very robust environment. i think investors want to know growth, top line growth and they are not sure about the guidance is at this point. >> an exception to the rule here for what looks like a strong season. >> very strong season. we will see what happens in the first quarter of next year when
we start to lap some of the direct deposits that went into consumers bank accounts. ports will probably open up at that point in time inventory coming in and top -- >> everyone who covers retail seems to say circle back after the holidays we will be telling a different story. >> after 18 months of crazy financial modelling and comparisons, it will continue lieu the first half of next year we will be busy. >> hope you can get a brek to celebrate the holidays john concernan joining me. moving from hard lines to e-commerce, amazon is expecting to delivered a record number of packages, it is spending big bucks to keep deliveries on time and prevent their drivers from burning out. frank has more >> amazon has grown its network of delivery stations by 300% since 2019 as it moves the sites closer to customers to power one and
two-day delivery this is where the blue trucks behind me pick up your package this is where your package is when you get a text notification it is about to be delivered. they will deliver 50,000 packages a day to a 30 square mile area here in the jersey area amazon delivers about 70% of its own packages, an increase since 2019 amazon invested $1 billion this year including upgrades to its routing technology ahead this historic holiday peak. >> we continue toimprove the amount of times drivers visit the same neighborhoods so their familiarity increases. these are the things that enable our technology to get smarter. as drivers visit the addresses we are able to teach the tech how to navigate better. >> a big test, black friday,
e-commerce is expected to increase by 16% year over year, all cyber buying is expected to increase by double signatures. they are going to allow more interaction with people at delivery drivers >> my anecdotal experience in my neighborhood is the u.p.s. guys know what they are doing and when i see the amazon van coming i take the kids and run the other way. >> i don't want to comment on that the company says it is working on routing technology and making sure their drivers are more aware of where they are driving and making sepsz of do you have a hidden driveway, is there something else going on, a dog, in your neighborhood, something
like that. this is to increase the service level. >> i feel bad sometimes they pull over on busy roads and it can be hair rise raising frank holland on how amazon is getting a ulf those p.k.ages to our doorstep. up next, the pandemic has changed a lot about everyday life we will hear from the ceo of a delivery software platform how restaurants are going to keep up with new demands right after this
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welcome back the likes of uber eats and door barb existed well before the pandemic but saw accelerated growth during lockdowns and it has had an impact on how restaurants now operate. kate rooney spoke with olo about how it is supporting the evolution of dining. >> they power delivery platforms between restaurants and the online world they offer a suite of software products to restaurants.
the ceo says the company is seeing digital continuing to be an important integration in the space beyond just delivery think qr ordering codes and a profile of better data to better power restaurant operations on line. >> also in takeout, also in drivethrough, now in the on-people sis experience as well we are excited abouted what we are call digital entirety, digitalitial's ability to touch every traction and what it will unlock in enabling restaurant brands to realize the promise of digital hospitality. >> they just acquired wisely for $187 million that company helps to personalize guest experiences for customers which is increasingly important in this hyper competitive environment. >> it is really tying together all the customer digital touch points with the restaurant those that go through olo and those that don't into a
comprehensive profile of the consumer that enables brands to understand customer lifetime value. it is a true north metric. >> now, it recently expanded its integration with uber for alcohol delivery the company is working with 500 brands the stock is lower by 3% today. >> would they basically help the restaurants deal with all of these new technology tools >> that's right. if you use one of these online ordering platforms chances are you likely interacted with olo software but they are also moving into things like qr codes because digital is not just about the delivery, it is about on line as consumers return to that form of business as well. >> i wonder how all of this eats away at restaurant margins even while helping replace labor or become more efficient. it must be such a headache for someone who just wants to make food dealing with all of this. >> certainly things like a qr code can alleviate some of the pains.
you mentioned margins. obvious' focus but what this company talks about frequently, the consumer experience has to be god, whether you are ordering on line, via door dash, from a person or without a server they are trying to make that experience for restaurants big and small. >> kate rogers that does it for "the exchange," everybody. stay right there punch starts right now -- punch starts right now. >> good afternoon, everybody, welcome to punch, i'm tyler mathisen here is what's ahead on a busy friday afternoon the great resignation. millions of americans are leaving their jobs but can they really afford it. >> we have sue see orman here with five questions to ask yourself before you move on if you are considering it plus, the lithium decade it's here, according to every corps isi there are at least two stocks will help power our