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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  November 5, 2021 9:00am-11:00am EDT

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a little breather. i would trade the end of the pandemic for a little breather in the stock market, even though, as you just said, everybody is rich and staying home, maybe that's the problem >> i don't know. we should probably show bitcoin, we're at about 61,000, maybe flip an, show the ten-year note, and pfizer and the drug stocks >> let's do it again next week, as we always do. >> join us monday, "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber has the morning off. good news, a jobs beat, positive revisions. pfizer released positive data on
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its for pill we'll talk to marty walsh, and pandemic stocks are taking a hit. we'll talk about which ones are moving and why we'll start with pfizer though a study show an antiviral pill cut the risk of death by nearly 90%. >> the treatment is not -- in fact, we should take the vaccine. it's for sick people the goal here is to prevent people from getting sick. >> if you take it within the first three days, jim, 89%
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protection from hospitalization or death you wait five days, still 85%. frank del rio hired dr. gottlieb to figure out what to do, and he said, just vaccinate everybody he was joking with me last night -- the real dr. gottlieb is a much more fun guy i thought he almost broke into a smile this morning when he said, the pandemic is over this reminds me of -- my father used to tell a story how he was in the invasion force for japan. he was in the 6th army listen, you have to be first, and one day the atomic bomb went off. he told him the war is over, ire not invading this is the atomic bomb. it went off. the numbers are staggering, and
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i'm not saying we should go out in the streets and celebrate like they did at the end of world war ii, but it sounds like it's over. >> you did say, wars do end. when they do people go bananas, and that's okay. >> when i was talking to norwegian cruise lines, we were talking about after the war, there was a real boom. after world war ii, people acted differently. they realized you only go around life once. and they wanted to travel. that's the thing they most want to do. they see the world, because they think life is short. the reservations in 2023 are the best they have evan been this far out. i think it's okay -- i feel this
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is a surge of hope i jane goodall this week, and she distinguished between optimism and hope. we are in a hopeful moment i find that stocks have been going up, because maybe someone knew -- i didn't know -- that dr. bourlo, give him the nobel prize. >> a survey says the real healing will start next year. >> i put airbnb's quarter as one of the best, and these are all without -- delta's november 8th, all the planes will be fill.
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we do that, then people say, we, they shouldn't do that i'm think, well, the man who has been dead right, dr. gottlieb, basically set the war is over. that's just incredible it ended. >> if you missed the moment that jim is talking about with dr. gottlieb, take a listen to this. it might be somebody to remember down the road. >> i think the bottom line is the end of the end of the pandemic, at least as it relates to the united states, is in sight right now, given all the tools one of to combat this disease. >> are you thinking what to do with a peloton or zoom it's down 30%. >> it was -- look, sometimes you get these conference calls, and they act as if, we misjudged a
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little, everything is fine no, no, everything is not fine there was a pivotal moment, we don't need money i thought you were making a lot of money and now you're saying you might need money. >> i like folley, he's a character, but my wife was a precursor that it was something to hang things on. >> one of the things that stifel says, momp skeptically, whether the revised outlook is the core product may be closer to maturity in existing markets >> maybe when you listen to the conference call, they'll cut the price today. there's a lot of supply chain issues, the treadmill has issues if you look, the stock is like a $25 stock before all of this began, couldn't get back down
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there. that's pretty negative, but i do think, when you look at the stocks if you're an institution, peloton is number one. let's say you go to the end of the year and your board says, why do you own peloton um, eh, i mean, change the subject. chris was basically saying there is an issue about going to a club that people like. i just thought it was electric what he was saying, in the end people want to be with other people people don't want to be alone. if they had to be alone, they can try to manufacture other people, but suddenly they're all there, we don't have to m manufacture them. >> peloton is visibly wrong, and airlines are right.
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>> do you favor the vaccine at this point as a play >> i've thought about that i think that -- well, pfizer the big winner, one, the one you have to favor is merck merck's quarter was just can be anti-cancer franchise. just feel that one. >> it's weird, because it's all over the uk tabloids >> look, planet fitness was very good last time i had a game open show, i had planet fitness, and papa john's, even with game open did well, and i was saying to regina, i can't believe we nailed it. this is what people need to know planet fitness is back, and
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rondo has been fantastic it's the analog, when you think about peloton, they're going to planet fitness everyone said the franchises would go under, but it turned out -- i mean, my wife was the state champion when she was 14, and she thought this was the greatest thing in the world. as soon as ben came back, that's when the towels, the clothes, by the way, it's not that good. as a clothes holder, it's not. things fall off. that is doug foley should have figured it out how do you keep some of your undergarments on it without
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falling. >> they have some work to do clearly. >> it was a bad call it was a bad call. it was the bad call of the night, and it was jarring, because everything is going wrong. the treadmill is going wrong at one point they said they over-corrected it was a little unreal sometimes you're in the call and you think they thought they did well it's a long way from 170 531,000 jobs added, the best since july we're going to get the first reaction from the white house with the labor secretary in a few moments. restaurant at 119k >> that's american express steve, who is a remarkable executive, was saying, look, the restaurants are coming back big, but the margins are not as good.
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again, i come back to the idea that maybe labor costs are too low. jay powell did say we'll know when the pandemic ends, whether more people come back to work. he said it's a wildcard. can he stop those press conferences now? jay, it's okay -- >> maybe over-communicating, you think? >> i like that a lot of the people are disrespectful. axios has a piece that he was seen near the white house, and he reads it as a sign that there's a renomination coming. >> i'm not a billionaire all the billionaires hate him. are you kidding me all your costs are going up if you're a worker -- workers are doing better than they ever have in my lifetime
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look at the deere workers, they had a good deal and said no to it everyone -- let me back up. go back to where jay saved america. norwegian has $212 million in debt, but they'll be done. carnival will be done. the airlines will be done. jay came on the "today" show and said this is over and all these companies that have survived, they all would have been wiped out. it's kind of like "it's a wonderful life." >> the other potterville >> it was potter or -- and jay gave us bailey i know him
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i call him jay. >> it is odds of a june hike had come down. maybe people are coming around to the idea he's right about the short-term inflationary -- >> yes, look, if you buy -- if you buy the global foundries, which an important deal, if they can get the ships, taiwan semi can make the chips, kla, then we're going to stop hearing about that the port thing is different. >> trucking too. >> truckers, there's a lot of truckers banding together in little groups to become truckers and extract more of their worth. i think these problems go away, and i think jay is right he's not the rainmaker. >> jpmorgan last night looked at
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global auto sales in october up finally, and maybe a sign in autos we're starting to see -- >> maybe autos i think is a first half of 2022 we'll know this when i get the maverick i ordered in march. i ordered this thing i hope i get to be able to garden this year i was going to go to every eagles game with it. where is my maverick where is my darn maverick? what is that, a tv show? i thought it was a mini truck. when we return, ubetter is moving higher, the company posted gross bookings with an all-time high. and some big travel. more "squawk on the street" continues after a break.
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. this is earlier in squawk. >> what we saw earlier, is the demand for transportation and
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mobility was growing much foster than supply. so the team went to work to make sure we communicate to drivers and couriers, it's flexible work, the earnings opportunities are incredible. >> he said the corporate travel rebound is unmistakable. >> he mentioned, look, it's easier to find driver, which is one of the key met rickets people still want to get deliveries at home i think there was a group of people who felt, wait a second, everybody will go out. turns out they're using them for more than just dinner. >> drizzly >> that's the liquor delivered at home. these are companies that people thought might be peloton, and they're just not.
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>> some worried groceries margins thin, how long can they afford to pay -- >> that's a great question i was prepared to hear more skepticism about it. it was a good call here's the problem, and he doesn't duck when things are bad. i like that, but the biggest problem was airbnb >> beat 75 >> he and expedia -- when you listen to chesky, you have to listen that airbnb, that's the way people are going to vacation that was before international. it has become the way, on weekends, they go to a nicer part of town now that three will have day weekends, four-day weekends are
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almost norm at, routine, the idea of taking a long weekend makes more sense. >> i remember when my daughter was she was teaching in madrid, every weekend she went to a new place to stay, i said, isn't that amazing she said, no, that's what people do now but he does have a complete book of business. he's a remarkable ceo, ceo with a heart, doing unbelievable thing. chesky is one of the leaders. >> cramer's mad dash and the ea iing bell ahead after a short brk,n about ten minutes. don't go away. ffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪♪ this...
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time for cramer's mad dash, watching boeing today. >> my charitable trust owns boeing, and i like to tell good and bad. we're up on the stock. i've been too bullish. this morning they settled a lawsuit, shareholder suit, they've agreed to add an ombudsman, looking into internal issues, and a director who has some qualifications in airline safety kind of surprised they didn't have that before and how come the previous ceo wasn't more focused on what happened the answer is, this is worthless. don't buy it over this this is something we a expected to happen. buy boeing because you think everything is going to reopen. it's a tough one, because they did a lot of things wrong, and
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it's not done. >> i'm surprised to hear you not be more positive on delivery outlook. they need a lot. there's not enough orders from the american airline companies, from international it was a great company now it's just a good company this is just one more example. >> i basically saidthat to calhoun himself. >> in you end, may they do get china. china has been softer. they have major hurdles. calhoun has major hurdles. they did a lot of things wrong, many more than people realize. we're discovering a lot abou
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boeing, and it's not good. >> there's still a lot to be reported about it. opening bell coming up in a couple minutes just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast do not go away
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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by -- busy morning, as we await what is likely to be all-time highs at the open across the board, but watch draftkings, with a revenue miss, some of their rpu estimates were -- >> what's interesting is there have been no upsets. that really hurt them. that and the over -- it's -- i don't gamble, but if you look at these, what happens is there is no surprises, so therefore it hasn't been as exciting. i think jason is absolutely terrific he basically told you, look, this is not what we need that's become a very expensive
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business it almost reminds me, as my friend said, it's almost like the cannabis stocks a couple years ago, it current out to be so many entries. canopy is also a disaster today, so you have to be careful. >> we watched the video yesterday, so you have to be careful. in this space tradeable in the future >> no. i think the big casinos are in. >> i will say draftkings is a
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winner, but these people have to spend a forting to get customers. i don't like that. they need lower cost of acquisition, and they haven't found a way. >> let's get to the opening bell here [ bell ringing ] >> this is a good day. this is the end of the war is in sight. i've been going over all of the ipos this year i think we have to recognition we have a whole new cohort of companies. they're doing okay if you look at them, try to analyze them, it's so hard,
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because there's almost no research coverage. for every draftkings, this is ten others you've never heard of >> i study them because of the lightning round, because everybody keeping asking them. one is toast livenation up 13. >> i'm being to billy joel tonight. my wife said, we're going to a con concert. >> where and what? we're wearing oxygen tanks
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[ laughter ] >> we just briefly touched on nvidia which is impossible to keep down you're talking 50% gains in six weeks. >> whether it's the omniverse, it has to be written on their graphics card, something he's been working on for years. forget mark zuckerberg this is a man who showed me the future four years ago, and we're going into a room and there's these avatars, you can learn from them. i'd really like to talk classical music or see a shakespeare play, and he said, okay he had the jump. he has a vision of the world he thinking that very different way from the rest of us. >> but if i put up the mystery
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chart like here, you would say ring the register. >> i can't he's too kind, brilliant, simple look, there's some people you immediate them, and you know, i had the opportunity to meet him, and i can't believe it one day somebody is going to write a book about him and what this man saw when you stock was around 20, i went to see -- and he said nvidia they make the greatest chips in the world. >> jim, the way you're talking kind of sounds like sort of late '90s internet innovation. >> sandy grove -- it was a great -- >> i mean the markets in
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general. mason was saying, jim, this is already around i said, you're so far ahead of anyone as a gamer, you don't know hoe the rest of us are just being drawn intoed offthere's an avatar, we meet people, we're never alone again it's not zuckerberg >> i was at a dinner last night for nft week, and there was a lot of discussion in their view they're just trying to capture the marketing part of meta, but no one wants to take ownership
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of it. >> it's on the shoulders of jensen long. he wears a motorcycle jacket, a wine bar at the office, really good sandwiches, and a coffee cart that goes to each person and it has what they want. he l he loves art and there were these two, a previous generation, next generation i said, shading. he said, yes, i love shading i haven't figured it out so make it life-like. >> some engineer got tasked with that. >> he haus 20,000 of the best engineers in the world all i know is when i named my dog inindividualium, he got a pass to go into the building >> a very solid week for apparel
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continues. >> that's also simon properties, a then today tanger went up. the things -- j.c. penney is doing well if you think about that, if j.c. penney is doing well, what did that mean for xyz. david simon said, these are companies we bought out of the bankruptcy are doing great there's a move back into the mall that fits back into the happy days are here again. i see draftkings going up. >> all week long it's been underarmour, ralph lauren. >> david simon says that over and over again, people want to shop, they want to go out.
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frank del rio, they want to go to the most exotic places imaginable a lot of ceos, they say, jim, will you get more upbeat stop talking about the fed or quarter base points, stop obsessing about the labor. start thinking about the greatness. you know, get with the times even zuckerberg is come on this morning the numbers, 531,000 jobs in october. the unemployment rate drops to 4.6. joining us is labor secretary marty walsh. happy friday. >> if you hear a notice in the background, there's a helicopter flying around. dealing with a lot of noise. >> i got you we've got some noise here, too
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we'll work our way through it. the -- the appropriate is about the fading delta variant can you talk about that and whether it was the lead dynamic? >> it definitely has a big role to play. the beauty of the report is we sought growth in a lot of different sectors. it was in hospitality, it was in construction, so you can see that you had can definitely see when we look at the numbers this morning, we talked about in the summer time when the delta variant was spiking, we saw less participation. we're see better numbers today i think president biden's economic plan is working as well and i think the plan to take on covid-19 is working as well. >> mr. secretary, jim cramer one of the things that's happened this morning is dr. gottlieb said, look, with this
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new pfizer remarkable series of pills, basically, the end of the pandemic is in sight are we ready for the end of the pandemic are we too bearish too negative this could be a remarkable moment i just find that no one seems to want to own it >> certainly that was exciting news we have to, unfortunately, until that day comes, we still have work to do here. here at the labor department, we want to continue to encourage people and keep working to get people back into the workforce if that is true and we'reth to get something approved by the fda -- i didn't see that part of it today -- i think a lot of people in this country would love to say the end of the pandemic there is a hunger out there to
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get people back to a new normal here, and certainly i would love to be talking about what's going on in the economy minus dealing with a pandemic in the future here in the meantime, we still have work to do >> mr. secretary, like all situations, it's tied to infrastructure how do we create truck drivers it's a very good job it's obviously very hard it's the single biggest bolts neck in the country. where would you tell people, if they wanted to be a truck driver, to go? >> certainly you should contact the american jobs center here with the department of labor you're absolutely right. it's a big challenge
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i think they're -- a lot of the trucking industries that we have problems with, we'll be dissecting that. the costs of wages that they're getting paid to move supplies around this country. i would suggest to anyone that has a cdl, please contact us at the american jobs center, there are jobs available we do need to address that a little it's not just simply finding truck drivers to drive some of these independent companies, they're one of two people driving trucks. >> labor force participation, 61, 6. it's been between 61,4, and 61,7 for almost a year and a half what will it take to bust out of
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that range >> i think there's a lot of concerns there i think obviously seeing a reduction in infection rate will help us, but i also think what we did yesterday on testing or vaccines are going to help us's well, to brings confidence back in as well >> i deal with a lot of companies that are very good tabulating them. bill mcdermott, marc benioff at salesforce why don't you contract out with one of them to tabulate these payroll numbers? they're better at it than the public sector. >> i think we have great people here at the department of labor. maybe what i'll do is contact those companies, when i get off of this tv with you, and talk,
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certainly i'm a big firm believer in working with the private sector, particularly on data they have good information that they're always looking at. my previous role at mayor, i often looked at companies, so that's a good suggest. i'll take them up on that. >> seven contracts with the federal government benioff instead, don't we have web services that can do it. google cloud i'll bet you he would do it. i just think it would be good. it wouldn't necessarily -- yeah, i'll give you -- mr. secretary, the president said famously a while ago, if american companies need more workers, and they clearly do, they should pay them more. is there a point at which hourly increases in wages and pay hikes
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would be seen as dangerous to the economy? >> i don't think it's necessarily dangerous. i think we have seen some increases in wages and participation of people going back to work increasing. this month was a good number if we look at since the up hack in office. 650,000 average jobs gained. so 5.6 million people have gone back to work since president biden took office. we're going to watch the wage number, all those numbers as we move forward here in the months to come. >> mr. secretary, thanks for sticking with us i know the helicopter noise is tough. we've all done live shots and it's not fun good to see you, though. >> thank you very much. a programming note, the president is expected to deliver remarks on the jobs number around 10:15 eastern time.
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we'll take you live there. first, the bond report, as we continue to -- the curve has been interests the last few days, ten-year below 1.5, and oil as well. we'll be right back. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.
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i know, jim, you have a couple thoughts on square. >> i think it's one of those where crypto was not as good, but there's a lot of other parts of square, deceleration, cash app not that great, down 6%, but in the end people regarding this company's not part of the firm ament. i don't think it is, but i do think that they're a great forward-looking company. they want to do crypto, and it
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doesn't pan out. they said, you know what it's the young person's credit card, cash business. younger people like square once they graduate, they tend to go to american express. >> i was going to say, does it make you less interesting or cross-border firms i've been say mastercard is cross-border i think that michael is doing a tremendous job it's a paper-to-plastic play >> i can't remember the last time i used cash i used to love using cash. >> yeah, i tried to take some the other day. people don't take cash okay >> still good, right >> yeah. i've got it in my wallet wow. i remember charlie sharp tell me, when he was at visa, it's not that hard to pull out a
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piece of plastic people will never do paypal, but they did charles is brilliant, doing a great job at wells fargo would always welcome him here. shack is up 18, a got 10% sure i'm sure there are people who want to get this thing going, who do the short selling business that we've seen i think it's had a big move. it's had a very big move today >> and we're going to watch, not just nasdaq move first time ever above 6k but alphabet got to 2999 as we continue to watch the horse race to 2 trillion. >> alphabet had a quarter. everyone was focussed on the
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fact that tom from google cloud wasn't able to do 6 billion. the fact is, i think he could have done 8 billion if they'd put more money behind him because they have so much demand search is fantastic. they focus on the wrong line this is a very inexpensive company, verses the rest of fang although, yesterday nils was critical about apple >> he's been skeptical over the years. >> there's an old friend from the '90s apple's more expensive verses what it's been facebook, now metta, is very inexpensive. but there's a gloom involving what happened there. it's undeniable. >> although 341 today. i asked if you thought 320 might be the low kind of nailed it. >> is mark zuckerberg a visionary about this if you watch the video, which is
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available to anyone, you will be blown away i need you to watch the video. you've got to understand, the guy -- he's a hitter he's like a trillia nair trillionair. geez >> and sign up and find more at cnbc.com/investing club or just 'rba aer b code. wee ckft areak it started with an idea... and became a new tradition.
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it's time for jim and stop trading. >> and blaxo not talked about much the company's divided into actual, what i call science and consumer packaged goods. yields more than four. buy it grirts >> how about "mad" tonight >> i'm booking i'm trying to book square right now. i have carvana and weyerhauser.
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i'm a big tree guy now >> i don't know how you do it. i'm talking to you, you're booking guests >> if we get -- what we will do is figure out whether the square sheet goes up and down exhaust said >> real quick, jim given all the reopening themes we've talked about, why is oil holding below 80 and can it? >> there is a -- there's some cheating going on, finally there are people in the u.s. that are pumped. but there's cheating and i think it's the first time. recount still going to be down from 2019. you're beginning to see the spigt open, not from the big guys but from the little guys. when you put them together, you're going to see, at $80, they just couldn't resist. too great for them >> jim, good weekend and we'll see you tonight.
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♪ good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. david's got the morning off. we're live at the new york stock exchange record highs across the board. nasdaq above 16k for the first time and not just on the pfizer antiviral data but jobs number that's the best since july >> we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we're watching this morning. we're going to start with shake shack. those shares are surging as the firm says the fundamentals can only improve from here and could prove a turning point for the company. shake shack is up 16% right now. square shares also squarely higher after the company saw a near 60% rise in profit year over year. thanks in part the surge in bitcoin transactions
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although, it's pairing the gains. now up fractionally. and finally pfizer shares soaring after results for the antiviral pill meghas all of those details for us and it's not just pfizer moving on this news but the other treatment plays and of course vaccine makers too. >> yeah. a lot of names moving on this news, which is just huge pfizer presented this morning its drug reduced hospitalizations and deaths by 89% when given to people at high risk of severe disease not yet hospitalized, within the first three days of symptoms within five days, results were similar, 85% and they were so positive, they recommend they stop it early and submit as soon as possible for emergency use authorization. and pfizer telling us they plan to do that by thanksgiving they've been ramping up spending more than a billion dollars in this at risk
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180,000 courses they expect to have by the end of this year, 50 million by end of next year. that could increase based on how positive results are they're already in negotiations with 90 governments around the world. >> this is a fantastic demonstration of the power of science. i think this medicine will change the way things are happening right now. will save millions and millions of lives >> and of course, this is the second antiviral pill we have seen results on just recently. merks being the other. and while you can't compare them directly, looking at the numbers, merck shows 50% efficacy, pfizer showed 89 and merck already has an fda advisory committee meeting set by october 30th. we don't know how quickly the fda will be able to move on that
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but this is moving quickly pfizer up by quite a bit merck down 8.5%. and moderna down almost 20% as the vaccine stock is taking hit on this news guys >> i mean, just looking at the moves we are seeing the in stocks you just pointed out, we think about how major the sales numbers have been for a company like pfizer for the vaccine. when you think about how much of the u.s. population, at least adult population is already vaccinated, do we know how large the treatment market could actually be for something like these antiviral pills going forward? >> that's a really good question and i haven't seen estimates yet from wall street but even though this trial was done in just unvaccinated people, the expectation is it
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could be used also for vaccinated people if they have an infection after vaccination that keeps it a pretty broad market do they recognize their symptoms early enough to get treated? it's quite a large market and such a huge help to have another tool like this >> fascinating thanks so much big day. that's our meg tirrell tale of two recoveries for stocks all three companies saw a surge of in demand from consumers. airbnb's profit popped a massive 280%, while uber reported the first ever adjusted profit and once the pandemic darling, pel peloton, they report weakening sales growth along side lower guidance and lower than expected losses this is an interesting day
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sgli >> it's back in gear you look at uber, airbnb, expedia, they had an initial peek almost a year ago, when we got the pfizer vaccine data, there was excitement so, it's gone in waves it does seem like it has a lot more traction in terms of just a general reacceleration to the economy. it's not just travel coming off the press levels it's actually much more a spending higher on lots of service categories that's a new vein in the story line >> which speaks to the shifts we've been hearing about the shift from goods to services in this economy and how that's going to propel economic growth more broadly, even have we have seen supply chain disruptions as they drag on the fitness piece of the puzzle is interesting too you had the really strong planet
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fitness numbers yesterday. i've got it from a source who is very closely affiliate wd with this that equinox, one of those brick and mortar fitness names, in october, saw sales up 120% from 2019. it does speak to the fact that people are looking to do more. they have money to spend, etc. shake shack numbers, live nation numbers. and on the flip side, peloton and drop box is under pressure today too. which speaks to this shift in the narrative in the markets >> interesting how drop box did get lumped in with some of the stay-at-home from work type stuff. pelotoned peeked in the early part of the year and now it seems much more like a vosifric surrender. this was not a probable company
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at the highs and so what happens at lower volume levels it's not as exciting at the moment >> all that said, at 4700, we are above some year-end targ fr said for some of the major strategists. >> probably for most of them if we're up at the close, it's higher for the s&p, seven days in a row 10%, let's say, in about a month. you're getting hoten the short term 4700 also was this level if you drew a straight line in terms of how the rally has gone all year, you're bumping up against it celebratory rallies. sometimes they're the culmination of good news, as opposed to the beginning of it i think the underpinnings are as impressive enough.
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>> they did say the shortage of drivers is largely behind it we -- you talked about it in the last hour, the truck driver shortage this is one of the cheap competitors. they're taking on some of the folks that maybe have been dealing with the supply chain issues, not getting paid for their hours and hours of waiting and now becoming things like delivery drivers speaks to all the gyrations, which does bring us to the panel. the u.s. jobs market snapped back in october. and payrolls rising more than expected while the unemployment rate fell to 6%. here to discuss those numbers more at chief economist good morning to you both dianne, i'll start with you because obviously we saw strong additions. the unemployment rate decline but the labor force participation rate is still very stubbornly low bouncing along the 1970s lows right now.
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why do you think that is >> exactly we're still having a hard time bringing in workers off the sidelines. we saw a number of workers who were ill and could not work, fell by 150,000. it has swelled over the summer as the delta wave took hold and the numbers are starting to come back we know from the household pulse survey that many workers, who were caring for people who are ill, actually dropped during the month of october i think we'll see participation go back and remember, we're going against a surge in retirement we had a tsunami during the pandemic and it's not clear all of those workers are going to be coming back into the labor force in the months to come. we know there's long legs. when people make the decision to stay home, not sure if their kids will go into quarantine or not, this is where vaccines for 5 to 11-year-olds make a difference. for it's harder to extricate yourself from and get back in the labor force.
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good news is we did continue to see a drop in the long term unemployed which means we're widdling away at the workers who were laid off first. >> i'm looking at your notes and you expeckted the economy to add 500,000 jobs for the month of october. you couple it with the messaging and the news out of the fed earlier this week and of course, we've had one record high after anather for the major averages the trajectory for stock and where investors should be putting their money to work at these levels >> obviously, this morning's numbers were better than expected much more consistent with what we've been looking for in terms of the current recovery. i would agree with dianne that the one preverbial fly in the ointment is the participation rate we're also seeing consumers sitting on very elevated cash balances that could well be keeping them on the sidelines
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and there's a bit of a skills mismatch before the pandemic, about 80% of the jobs were in services, 20% in manufacturing and given the services side is under pressure, we think it's un of the things that may be impeding an increase in the participation rate the economy is picking up momentum after its third quarter lull so, us, as we look ahead from an equity market perspective, we think it's going to remain above trend and nominal growth will be quite robust next year we do acknowledge what the fed is saying to us tapering is not tightening but we think long-term interest rates are going to raise given the primary race is visa vee valuations, we're increasingly focussed on the earning story. and from a sector perspective, that leads us to industrials, materials, technology.
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we want to own those industries most levered to be underlying base of economic activity. because along with a lot of other economists, we're expecting economic growth to accelerate in the beginning of 2022 >> i wonder if we can get into the fed implications of today's number it seems as if we're in a period where good news for the economy and jobs is not directly bad news for markets but based on what the fed might do. seems like there's several months of runway before the fed is prepared to do anything beyond its current stance. bond markets are trying to proactively get ahead of this. where do you see things tracking >> i think if we see another month like this, that we will see the fed in december. they'd left the window open, to adjust the pace of tapering. i think they're going to
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accelerate the pace of tapering. they want to space it out from lift off, which will occur, with at least two rate hikes in 2022. that's really important when we think of where we're going fed chairman powell talked about productivity gains and that said, they're unevenly distributed. the large tech behemoths are driving the wage gains and fast food are driving wage gains and competing with manufacturers that never seen them compete with retailers for workers i think is a testament for how long the wages have gone and another issue is how much demand for workers we have out there. most recent data, which is the job site data. nick bunker does a great job of this it suggests job openings have likely moved to 11.1 million by
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the end of october. for that's well above anything we saw pretrend and we don't have the supply of workers, given the loss of immigration, really a loss from 2016 to 2019 and we shut down our borders during the pandemic the loss to retirees, 1.5 million additional retirees we saw above trend during the pandemic and we saw long-hall covid, which could have wiped out more than a million people who may not be able to work full time. that createas a lot of a tension for the feds in terms of wages while i think with t will abate in 2022 and 2023, it will not abate enough for them to feel secure we have a situation where the fed is going to look like it's chasing inflation instead of pree..ing it, which is where we've been the last several decades. >> such a key debate right now
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how much is that signaling and how much of a cue will equities continue to see from the sentiment we're seeing there >> obviously the ag rugt performance of the equity market is going to be effected by what happens with interest rates, given the share of technology primarily. i want to go back to the conversation around the fed though i'll tie it back thraequity market in a moment here. tapering, to me, makes perfect sense. i'm not so sure they'll accelerate the pace of tapering in december. i think that will be a knee-jerk reaction by the fed who is quite calculated in its decisions. when we get to the second half of 2022, yes, inflation is probably going to be a little bit sticky, above the fed's 2% target but will we have made the
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necessary progress on the labor market front i do wonder if we'll see the participation rate rise and move to a level more consistent with the fed's mandate. i think hiking rate said could be more challenging when all is said and done. i think it's a fed which is going to measure twice and cut once good news is good news and until the fed starts to sound signs of caution, i think it's going to remain that way. >> thank you both for kicking off the hour with us david and dianne >> thank you >> as we head to a quick break, here's a look at the roadmap for the next hour. we have the ceo of draftkijs, despite a miss on results this morning. >> then we're breaking down the problems at peloton, as they continue to hit a 17-month low >> and don't miss the ce ovrgs huntington eagles talking new
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draft kings reporting a wider than expected loss in revenue but forecasting a stronger 2022. let's get over to contessau brewer >> mike, thank you for that. jason, it's great to see you today. i mean, we heard something similar from caesar's, from penn this football season has been a
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real bust for the sports books but you guys are actually breaking out whole what's the impact of these favorites winning? looks like we're having a bit of a problem -- >> i can hear you now. >> i'm asking about holds. we have a graphic of the top ten worst match ups for draft kings. the way they're losing money and now we've seen them breaking out hold give me an example thoflg impact on the bottom line >> sorry, the audio cut out. can you repeat the question one more time, please. >> i'm mentioning you had to break out hold because of the material impact this particular quarter. talk to me about the fact that, i guess, the house doesn't always win >> well, we noted this in the call we had about a $25 million swing
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from hold in q3, another 25 million in october i actually thinketser are a good thing. unrelated in any way the fundamentals of the business but great for all the new customers to come on and be winning. i think that bodes well for the long-term prospects of making tell the loyal i like when the book doesn't do well early in the season i'd rather it be later than early in the season. >> if hold was a factor, does that mean the bookies need to do a better job figuring out odds is there any formula that's going to have an overhaul? >> no ririt's nothing to do wit that we enly had six weeks of football in september. typically when the favorites win and the overs hit, which is what happened, the sports books don't do as well and customer dooz great.
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we saw exact opposite last october. a positive variance of $25 million between thursday and monday. for it's just the nature of the business, especially in a sport like nfl where there's only one set of game as week, there's going to be variants >> let me ask you about this entain deal. was this really about establishing an international footprint or is there something about entain's tech that was particularly attractival to draft kings? >> no t was much more the former when we'vetalked about our strategy, we've said our vectors for expansion are continuing to do well in our core markets in the u.s. global and product expansion so, we're going to look at things that could potentially help with that we don't end up doing the vast majority of the deals we look at we -- and entain had to be public it was very early on and
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entirely about global expansion for us i say while the u.s. is an incredibly exciting market, it's going to be the biggest in the world for online gaming. really all large tech companies have a global footprint. at some point we want tabe global >> jason, you did see a gain in average revenue per user as revenues have gone up, your sales and marketing pretty much tracks with it in other words, you seem not to be running things right now at these levels of users and engagement when does that change? has your assessment of the total adressive market change snd and $50 a month in average revenue per user i wonder how many there are out there that would basically buy into that? >> i think right now we're at the early innings of the industry the company's revenue is
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doubling almost year over year we're live in states that have been live a little over a year maybe a year and a half. still most of the population left to legalize and we're talking about $60 billion plus if there were full legalization. i think it totally makes sense to invest. webl been consistent in saying we look at a two-to three-year payback. all of our other states are in the lower end or below the two-year mark. we're still in the investment phase. and i think it's a very exciting time and it's absosalutely the time invest and bring on new customers and grow the top line. >> and we're looking for a new york state gaming commission here on monday that we anticipate may anoungs the recipients of an online sports betting license. in the meantime, i was at the gaming global expo in las vegas.
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and competitors of yours, but people who know you said jans robins wants to be jeff bezos. you've come a long way since fantasy sports drive-by draft kings for investing and ticketing. i just want to know is that where you're heading, global domination >> i think we have ambitions to be a much bigger company than today. we want to expand geographically, expand to new product lines. i think all we have a proven track record of doing that, mostly organically and what we're trying to build is much larger than sports betting. we want to be a big tech company, be igin the same conversation with amazon and the like that is where we're trying to head obviously a lot of work to get there but that's our goal. >> jason robens, always a pleasure to talk to you. thank you for your time. >> thanks for having me.
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>> and our thanks for contessau brewer bringing us the interview. vaccine mandates and the future of national security don't miss the ceo of huntington eagles industry.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." america's largest military ship builder is cautioning the time of material delivers could impact near term delivery. this is something i asked ceo about in an exclusive interview. >> i think it's somewhat general. where there's a lot of labor content in our suppliers, i think basically everybody across the country is working their way through the issues our advantage is our contracts are long term and we're able to engage suppliers over a longer period of time but it is about timing of events that we're seeing and that's why we revised it. >> supply chain issues have been a key topic across the defense
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sector, this earnings season in particular ford class aircraft carriers all of this requires a lot of steel. but he does note the company hedges around the long-term contracts. and we talked china, as they released a reporten the nuclear arms ambition. general milley has been very vocal about things like a.i. in this power competition between china and u.s. spurring investments for things like unman sained and autonomous surface vessels. >> there's going to be more unmanned platforms, more artificial intelligence involved things are going to be more highly networked we're going to have to get folks trained faster and it's going to have to be more relevant training intelligence, surveillance and
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recognizance are going to be very important our sense is that's right. that's where the puck is going, so to speak. so, we're trying to go there as you know, we closed on alion just this quarter and those are the things they allow us to go and help create a viable path to that secure future >> and of course that's just one of a number of acquisitions focussed on these technologies in recent months and years we also discussed covid and how he's navigating the federal vaccine mandate for contractors, especially because analysts say shipyards, at least until now, have lagged the rate of the broader sector >> first of all, we were one of the first companies to make our policy clear, when the executive order came out, that we want all of our employees to be vaccinated we have since then been working
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with all of our customers across contracts to make sure we understand what the implementation of that executive order is going to look like in terms of the contractual implementation we continue to do that we just got to change from the deadline december to january but that doesn't change our policy and desire to get everybody vaccinated since we put our policy in place, we have seen our percentages of vaccinated employees go up pretty dramatically so, we -- we're working our way through that day to day. our policy is to work with customers to get the contractual direction that we need >> and he did say that across the workforce that vaccination rate is now up to about 75%. finally, i asked about the so-called aukus partnership in which they'll provide nuclear
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submarine capabilities to australia. for it's been in the headlines again this week, on the heels of the g 20. what it could mean for the company, we discussed that >> we actually opened an office in australia several years ago, based not really on nuclear submarines but based on the alliance and the need for the alliance to be stronger. we've kmr to really understand what the state of play in the industry inside of australia is. we're helping the australian government create a ship-building industry with our expertise in workforce development in the united states i suspect that this program -- first of all, it's going to take a little while to work its way to a viable program. but we're going to be engaged with that. we're very supportive of the u.s. government's efforts to do hath that we have good local knowledge of
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what the art of the possible is. you don't just go and turn a light switch on and say i want to build a nuclear submarine tomorrow there are things that will enable you to do that in the future we're very involved and excited about that >> we also talked about his outlook for defense spending, reminder that, as we're seeing budget negotiations take place in d.c., that the government is operating on a continuing resolution, which always has an impact on the defense piece of the business once they move forward, there's a good possibility we could see an increase to the top line defense spending number. so, this is going to be something to watch with the contractors. but of course, guys, for this company in particular, there's a gift billion back log. it's a long lead time to make war ship said and different types of vessels but it does speak to the fact that, for example, this power
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competition with china is where you're going to see and new technologies is where you see the future defense dollars directed >> and the idea of the total defense spend and these threats. we'll see how it goes. let's get a news update. good morning sue the house of representatives is moving towards votes today on a $1.75 trillion social safety net bill and the $550 billion infrastructure package president biden has been trying to guard against any defections against democrat whose have just a three-seat majority in the house. italian coast guard helped rescue migrants amid strong waves. it was one of two rescues last night. italian government says more than 54,000 migrants have arrived this year. it's asking other countries to
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share responsibility from those crossing mediterranean and schools can get their covid vaccinations now that they're eligible to get the shots. four schools will host clinics and some hospitals plan pediatric vaccination events carl, i'll send it back to you >> see you then. investors are warming up to canada goose shares higher after an unexpected profit for the quarter and what's been a pretty good week for retail and we'll break down today's strong jobs number after the break. dow's up 316 ♪ ♪ there are beautiful ideas that remain in the dark. but with our new multi-cloud experience, you have the flexibility you need
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if you're just waking up, the jobs number was above expectations 531,000. looking for 450. and jobless rate at a new post covid low. and when the happens, of course, we'll take you there live.
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meantime, stocks, record highs after the better than expected jobs number. morning again, steve >> hey, good morning, carl together with revisions for the prior months, the strong october jobs releases fears that the economy is not all inflation and has some of the economic and jobs growth. looks like the economy is accelerating along with -- here are the numbers. 531 better than the estimate of 450 and one of the first time in months economists have been close. august and september revised up significantly. 235k is the total for the two-month unemployment rate. hourly earnings on the mark still pretty strong but the labor force participation rate will not budge at 61%. and 164 retail also. this is a month that there's hiring ahead of the christmas season construction strong, manufacturing strong, government shedding workers again, down
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73,000 a couple other data points number of unemployed falling for a total decline of 3.3 million year to date there was a healthy decline and those unemploymed for 27 weeks r longer it's structural unemployment where there wasn't much progress, labor force participation. look at the numbers here labor force stuck at 61.6, down about two points from the prepandemic high 3000004.2 million jobs at some point, the fed could come to the conclusion the workers are not coming back and that would mean it's actually a lot tighter than it believes that could mean faster policy response but it would be in the context of better economic growth and a normalized economy. >> that's right. steve, thank you very much here to help us break down what
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steve brought us is goldman sachs chief economist. good morning >> it's good to be on. hello. >> so, on labor force participation, are we going to stay in the range but at what point do we have to call a spayed a spayed? >> we have to call a spade a spade in terms of what's happened a lot more of the job gains we've seen and these were pretty strong job gains after the last couple of disappointments have gone into bringing down the unemployment rate and a lot less as the translated into increases in participation all else equal, i think that means while employment growth has not been massively above expectations in the last six months or so, i think there's more tightness than i think most people had anticipated >> so how does that follow
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through to what we might expect from the fed >> i think it's one factor that is probably going to get them to hike somewhat earlier than maybe six months ago seemed likely and that's a reason why we pulled forward our projections for lift off we were in 2023, now we're in july 2022, right after the conclusion of the taper. and labor supply issues are an important driver here. the other important driver, of course, is what we're seeing in terms of goods demand and goods inflation, which i think is going to spill more into 2022 as chair powell discussed in the press conference wednesday >> crazy question here but if we continue to see inflation persist, maybe not be as
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transitory as once believed, we keep hearing about the incredible spending power and savings of the american consumer but as you see higher prices lasting longer, could that potentially pull more people back in the labor market >> i think, you know, there's a good case for seeing a boost from savings if you look at the september personal saving rate was 7.5%, which is basically the prepandemic level. meaning that, at least in aggregate, they're not tapping into their pent-up savings yets. i think that's going to give it a boost to spending. i think right now there are some signs, as steve liesman noted, that the economy is accelerating with that, yeah, i think you can pull more people in.
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ultimately labor demand is an important demand and i think this is one of the reasons why demand shouldby pretty strong. >> if, as you say, the labor market is behaving as if it's more tight than we thought it would be by this point, being down as many jobs as we are before the peek? what should we look for in terms of signaling from chair powell and other fed officials to say they're revising their observations in terms of what represents full employment i know there were steps this past week. what are we looking for in terms of how they characterize the labor marked >> i think there were steps in that direction but as with fed communication in general this year, it's been very gradual evolution i would continue to expect pretty gradual evolution in the message. i think one big question is
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going to be after the meeting, what happens with the dots, projections for the federal funds rate it was a split verses lift off in 2021 verses 2023. for it's very likely, they were in 2023 one big question is how many dots move into 2022? that's what i think be an important gauge of where their head is, at least as far as lift off is concerned and i think there are other ways in which they can further evolve the message, elaborate on the issues around labor force participation that came up wednesday. the dots, i think, are going to be pretty important in this case you have to interpret them with care i think this is going to be an important event for markets. >> finally, there's been some work done this week, looking at
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the recent curve flattening. one argument has been it's impossible to rule out the idea that investors are worrying the central banks are if wing to over react to short-term bottle necks and inflationary pressures. we've been through periods in the past where we were looking for a series of hikes that never came from desks like yours what do you say to those spectics >> people worried that the central banks do too much? i think you have to balance that worry against the worry about maybe letting inflation become more ingrained than you want it to be. i think the way the fed appears to be sort of steering this, seems pretty reasonable to me. i think there were some surprising gyrations in both markets and in some cases, as far as the bank of england is concerned, in terms of policy
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maker commentary and then decisions, decision not to hike this week at the bank of england, i think was a pretty large surprise for the market and won't in the direction of maybe alealeviating the worry tt central banks are doing too much too soon to one degree >> again, a lot to work with in the wieks to come but congratulations on almost exactly nailing this particular number always good to see you >> thank you very much good to see you. shares of workhorse surging on reports and you can see those shares down 10% right now. we did reach out to workhorse for comment. we'll update you on what we hear when we hear it. in the meantime, we're awaiting president biden. and fwwe're going to take you
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." time for our etf spotlight and we're looking at the vaneck semiconductor etf as chip stocks continue to outperform despite supply chains and shortages. shares are up more than 17% in a month for smh and up another 1.5% right now now a core holding is nvidia which has been on a tear one on the top gainers in the s&p and the nasdaq this week up another 3.5% this week. at an all-time high and up more than 50% since early october as inesthavers get bullish on the company's metaverse plans.
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so, we'll continue to monitor that, carl >> unbelievable. meantime, catch more on nvidia's recent moves on "techcheck" in the next hour board member drew houston breaking down some results along with where the metaverse could be headed from here. you don't want to miss that. the president, meantime, taking the lector. let's listen >> america's getting back to work our economy is starting to work for more americans thanks to the economic plan we put through in congress early this year and the successful vaccine deployment, america continue to add jobs at a record pace it is historically strong recovery unemployment rate has fallen again today down to 4.6% this included a substantial drop which was much needed. our economy is on the move this morning we learned that in october our economy created
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531,000 jobs well above expectations. we also learned that job growth over the prior two months, august to september was nearly 250,000 more jobs than previously thought in total, the job creation in the first full nine months of my administration was about 5.6 million new jobs, a record for any new president. that's a monthly average of over 60,000 new jobs each month ten times more than the job creation at three months before i took office. new unemployment claims have fallen every week for the past five weeks are down by more than 60% since i took office and are now at the lowest level since the pandemic started. people continue to move from unemployment roles to work unemployment has decreased this year by more than any other year and since 1950
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any year since 1950 unemployment has decreased more in this year than since 1950. not only are more americans working, working americans are seeing their paychecks go up weekly pay went up in october with an average hourly earnings up almost 5% this year that's more than some of the lowest, that's more than some of the lowest paid workers in our country, men and women who work in restaurants, hotels, entertainment that have seen their pay go up 12% this year. over 5.5 million jobs, unemployment down a record pace to 4.6%. before we pass the rescue plan, forecasters said it would take to the end of 2023, the end of 2023 to get to 4.6 unemployment rate today we reached that rate two years before forkecasters thougt it was possible. i would humbly suggest this is significant improvement from
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when i took office and a sign we're on the right track this did not happen by accident or just because. we laid the foundation with this recovery with my american rescue plan that congress passed the beginning of my term it put money in working families' pockets and gave families with kids a tax cut each month it helped keep small businesses going in the dark days earlier this year. and it provided the resources needed to launch one of the fastest mass vaccination programs ever. we got more than 220 million shots in arms in my first 100 days we didn't stop there in recent months, we've started implementing vaccination requirements which have helped bring the number of unvaccinated adults down in this country from around 100 million several months ago to 60 million now you know, that's good for our health it's also good for our economy now vaccinated workers are going back to work, vaccinated
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shoppers are going back to stores and with the launch of the vaccine for kids ages 5 through 11 this week, we can make sure more vaccinated children can stay in school these plans i have implemented, these plans of economic success, the economic rescue and vaccination plans is both of them it made the economy the envy of the world. we're the fastest growing major economy and one creating jobs at a faster pace than anyone. yet, yes, there's a lot more to be done. we still have to tackle the cost of american families are facing. but this recovery is faster, stronger and fairer and wider than anyone could have predicted. that's what the numbers say. but we want to make sure that people continue to feel it in their lives and their bank accounts and their hopes and expectations for tomorrow that's better than today. that's what it is all about. making sure our recovery is
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fully felt to determine that depends on two things. two things that are entirely within our reach the first for our economy to fully recover, we need to keep driving vaccinations up and covid down and that effort we took two major steps this week. on tuesday, the cdc recommended covid-19 vaccine for children between the ages of 5 and 11 we're prepared for this moment by securing enough vaccine supply for every single child in that age category in america those doses have started to arrive at thousands of pediatrician offices, pharmacies, schools and other sites. as a parent of one of the first children to receive the shot said, quote, today is such a huge sigh of relief, end of quote. starting next week, our kids vaccination programs will hit full strength with about 20,000 trusted and convenient places
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for parents to get their kids vaccinated yesterday the occupational safety and health administration issued a rule to require employees with 100 or more employees to ensure each of their workers is fully vaccinated or tests negative for covid-19 at least once a week. and the centers for medicare and medicaid services issued a rule requiring that all workers at health care facilities participate in a medicare and medicaid are fully vaccinated. together these rules along with other requirements we put in place means that two of thirds of all irk withers in the united states are now covered by vaccination requirements these requirements have broad public support and they work. already we've seen organizations that have adopted vaccination requirements increase their vaccination rates by more than 20 percentage points often as high as over 90%. this is good for the workers, for their colleagues, for their
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loved ones and for their communities. it's also good for the economy and a recent university of chicago survey, every economist agreed that requiring staff vaccinations are regular testing among large employers would promote the economic recovery that is faster and stronger even than it is now analysts at goldmian sachs predict they could lead up to 5 million more americans reentering the workforce that's because they feel safer to do so that's because there are fewer disruptions to things like child care again, beating covid-19 remains one of the most important ways to strengthen our economy, not just save lives. strengthen our economy we're making progress. as of this week, 70% of american adlts are fully vaccinated more than 193 million americans fully vaccinated it was less than 1% when we took
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office ten months ago. and one more piece of good news. last night we received promising news about another potent and potential covid treatment. a pill, a pill developed by pfizer that may dramatically reduce the risk of being hospitalized or dying when taken shortly after infection, if you're infected. if authorized by the fda, we may soon have pills that may treat the virus of those who become infected we have already secured millions of doses and the therapy would be another tool in our tool box to protect people from what the worst outcomes of covid. but, look, it's important to remember we need to prevent infections not wait to treat them once they happen vaccination remains the best way to do that the pandemic is not yet behind us but within this week's announcements, vaccines for kids, more adults getting vaccinated, potential treatment for those

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