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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  November 2, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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challenging. the business challenges, and guys, we do have a bunch of names coming out this afternoon. activision, blizzard lyft, zero group, amgen. it will be a very busy evening all-time highs are on the dow, the s&p, and the dow and the russ will 2000 all at all-time highs today. let's get to the half and the judge. >> welcome to the halftime report i'm scott wapner the state of stocks and the state of your money as stocks hit record highs yet again the fed begins its most pivotal meetings in years, perhaps will these next two days end or extend the rally we'll debate that with the investment committee joining me for the hour today, stephanie link, jason snooip, jim linen that will, and took the words right out of my mouth. first all-time high for the russell since march 15th and first all-time high for the dow
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transports since may 10th. beginning 153 is the-year-old on the ten-year and we'll get to everything that is at stake. first, go to in all in, jim lebenthal because he's not all in, i guess, because he's trimming stocks and notable ones in his book today including microsoft and alphabet and tractor supply you're adding to some name, too, and let's talk about why you're trimming those, too. >> there is no change in my net-invested position. i'm still all in this is portfolio management and google, microsoft, tractor supply let's start with google. it has risen to a 9% holding in many accounts. that's just simply too large the weighting in the s&p 500 is around 4%. i'm trimming it down to 5.5% it's still a huge position in my portfolios and i'm bullish on
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google this is risk management and i'm taking the money and putting it in names that last week reported earnings and where the market, response, in my opinion was far more negative than the results merited. in fact, it was all on the guidance i'm adding to amerfghanistan airlines and expectations have been reset that leaves room for them to outperform i'll say one more thing. i don't want to hog the air here microsoft, i trimmed as well and now it is below average size in my portfolio and it's below the market weight. when i look at the forward multiple, the next 12 months' multiple on microsoft i see it at 34 times. if i compare that to google which i've said above market weight, and it doesn't deserve nynex trois turns on the multiple versus google so i'm trimming it below market
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weight and i still think it's expensive and i don't own the stock. i'm negative on it let me close by saying this, scott. i'm still all in the next three months will be fabulous and i'm riding it to the hills. >> you're trimming winners and adding to laggards that's the bottom line, and i think it tees up a pretty good debate of which steve liesman's survey is on, as well. you have stephanie link, a majority of respondents in our survey say stocks are overvalued where they are now i want you to put that, versus seasonality which everybody says is your friend and history would say that, too, along with momentum and the fact that you have low rates so can you debate those two points are stocks overvalued or will you hang with the other trends that are more of your friend and will likely take stocks higher
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i think there are some stocks in the market and we are right in the middle of the season and 80% are beating. for the most part estimates are going higher so stocks aren't as expensive at first blush and what we are learning about earnings is demand is robust it's the supply chain that's giving these companies a headache and we also know inflation is real. we have core inflation at 7.3% year over year that's a big, big number, right? so i've talked about there are going to be haves, and have notes in the market and it's those that have pricing power that are faring much, much better so i've been very surprised with how strong the demand has been and also how resilient margins have been. so there are pockets in the market that are expensive. i do not think re-open names are expensive. i do not think cyclicals are expensive. i do not think financials are expensive in particular as well as industrials so those are the area that i
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actually am overweight i would be adding to them on any pullbacks, and i agree with jim, and we've been saying this for a long time. seasonally, this is the time that you want to be long going into the end of the year and i would embrace taper. absolutely embrace it because the economy can handle it and we do not need an emergency approximately see. jim just declared microsoft expensive and bickley said he was overvalued and yeah, he has a sizeable position in it, but is it time for everybody to take a look at their portfolios and look at gains as much as they love microsoft like you do and continue to go higher, but say maybe the gains have been too much maybe the stocks are now too rich and maybe i need to take profits off the table. >> i wish there were some evidence that short to intermediate term stock prices were driven by starting valuation, but there isn't so i'm not sure that that will
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help you some of the biggest winners of this year were also stocks in the top docile valuation of the s&p 500. i know when you're working with investors, one of the things you're supposed to say is we're doing food and things and this stock is now over my price target or overvalued so i'm going to take some off and that's my discipline, blah, blah, blah it's good. i'm not saying it's bad. i wouldn't also then say oh, that's going to work or that's going to help you outperform because the reality says otherwise. here's what i want to say. small caps are significant all of the people coming on here telling us that breadth is bad or that's yet large caps making a new high is a head fake and the small caps with the canary in the coal mine, what are you going to tell me now hopefully you're golfing and i don't want to have that conversation with you and it's uncomfortable. you have the russell 2000 all-time high and joining the
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mdx and joining the spx and you have the rsp all-time high and for those of you that are unaware that's the equal weight version of the stock market and new record high in semis which i told you are the most important cyclical group under the sun in case you regard those as being significant. then you have some of the high multiple stocks, we talk about snowflake all of the time. what a run i've almost never seen a stock do this. spotify is running and then you have this whole thing going with banksthat almost no one was predicting a year ago when they were doing their 2021 outlook, but they look great. goldman sachs, which i missed. i'm not that smart, i guess, that's a massive breakout. it's legit and there's a lot to like in this mark and the things not to like, judge, they're so few and far between that we
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actually know them by name it's hard to find industry groups that are getting trashed right now. having the small caps up here in the leaderboard is the icing on the cake you're coming into november. people feel good and the taper will be greeted with relief. i've been saying that since june, and i think we could roll higher into year end barring some sort of catastrophic virus headline that's how i feel right now. >> jason snipe, i want to talk to you in a second, but i want to get back to jim not to argue necessarily, but why is today the day that you realize that microsoft and alphabet had become too large for your portfolio because if they were too large for your portfolio today they were too large for it last week, too, and i'm wonder if this has anything to do with the overall view, by the way, we have a fed meeting that begins today and they'll probably announce a taper tomorrow and they may pull forward their rate expectations,
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too and that may cause rates to rise in the near-term and that may not be good for big technology stocks like microsoft and alphabet, jim, so i feel there's more to the story here >> i so want to take the bait and take where you're leading me let me answer your first question, why today? the answer is because of what happened last week to those stocks to which i'm adding the mode of force, is i didn't do it last week because you need to have a few days for the air to clear, the dust to settle and when they decide to take stocks like northrop grumman to the wood shed. you have to give it a few days that's the starting point, and i've got say where do i go to get my funds because you know i'm all in >> okay. >> so people at microsoft have been fabulous. just before you jump in. google is up almost 80% on one year microsoft up 67% they're just hanging there as apple's being ready to pluck from the three by the way, i said apple
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i said apple where we are and what i'm doing is a stock picker's universe, okay i'm not trimming apple and it's 4% from its all-time high and i think they'll go to 175 by the end of the year. we disagree about whether valuation matters and we disagree for eight years on that and we'll disagree for the next eight years and with its multiple and i will ride that overweight until it's above 175 and take it off. let me answer your second question about taper it doesn't matter to me. the fed will still be buying bonds and it will still be putting cash into the system and for the next three months and it's going to be buying bonds in size so you have to be long the market here. maybe not wrong, the hypergrowth stocks, it's growth at a reasonable price, technology and cyclicals. i love the cyclicals and i love the reopening trade. >> no more, mow trade.
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you needed the atm and these are the stocks that provided you the best opportunity at the lowest fees because you didn't have cash on hand. >> yes, your honor >> you're mr. all in i get it and i'm glad you explained it further for myself and the viewers. >> all right, jason snipe, you heard the commentary from your fellow committee members how do you see things? >> yeah, so, i agree big time with mostly what everyone said i think small caps, russell 2000 hitting at all-time highs is a great indicator of where we see the market going forward, and i'll admit seeing the nasdaq up almost 7% last month and the s&p close to 6%, and i don't know if it's a shoe -- even though i think about seasonality and this is a great time from a market perspective. it's a shot up in performance over the next couple of weeks and i think it will marginally grind higher, and i'm still
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bullish on the market. i think there continues to be fair value and if i look at earnings and 80% of companies and i think margins are great as steph alluded to earlier margins are still up 12% historically around 8% so companies have erred well in this environment it's hard to be a bear when you see what's going on. >> how do you like that live nation and the 52-week high and that's been a big winner, up there 34% in the last few months what i what i know friday night, judge? i sats in a torrential downpour driving circles around city field while my daughter and her friends were inside along with 80,000 fans who attend rolling loud new york city 80,000 and it's a three-night festival that's what's going on right now, and i think when you look
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at the attendance, not just the rolling loud all over the country, but all of the different live nation, vents that are taking place. when you look at the attendance, that is a repudiation of the idea that things will never be the same again actually, things won't ever be the same again if anything, people are more ferociously locking in tickets to live sporting events and concerts, et cetera. this is the publicly traded way to grab that they have one competitor and it's a german company. live nation is live music and this was -- the most singular, obvious pure play on that idea i'm sticking with it i think it works its way higher. i think this is a very unique asset in the market. there's almost nothing else like it when you combine the ticketmaster piece, the venues and the shows themselves and all of the other stuff you can do around that like advertising and nft, et cetera i'm going to stay long
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member member looking at it 52 week high, even though they've dipped negative and a nice winner that quarter was actually really good they beat across the board on revenues and margins and two-year comps were up 15% and they're taking market share and we talk about pricing power and it's 6% and traffic on a two-year basis is better than expected and the ticket size is higher so they're really humming and i still really like this name. it acts like a staple stock. i need that in my portfolio to kind of offset some of the cyclicals and re-opens which have more juice to them. snipe, i'm pulling up costco as we speak $499.35 is the new high and it's dipped off of that, but nonetheless, another big winner.
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>> yeah. absolutely costco has been a great story. costco has done a great job managing expenses and they've handled managing their employees and increasing salaries and they've managed to supply change well and we'll stick with it and it's been a great one for us >> thermo fisher, farmer jim, as we wrap up our new highs today tmo, 643.36 and it's a new high for that stock >> i am so guilty about not talking about this stock enough. the thing is a war horse and it's leak a picture out of mid of evel times, marching up a battle this thing just cranks it does all sort of diagnostic testing and laboratory supplies and it's not just covid propelling this and it's the aging demographics globally that is propelling this and fantastic
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management team that continues to find these little tuck-in acquisitions that propel the earnings immediately higher. i frankly, can't say enough good things about it. there are reasons that -- 30 times earnings >> yeah. okay like microsoft at 34 times which i own. i'm not sure what your point is. >> no, no, no. so you -- you're okay with the high valuation stock as long as it's growing earnings which is my premise stocks that are growing earnings fasterthan the market should trade at a higher valuation so you don't seem to have a problem with valuation with tmo, and i don't either, by the way the stock looks amazing, but i think you and i agree, actually, on this concept more than you think we do. >> i think that's probably right. let me concede that point that we do agree more than we concede. there's something in the way you and i interact which sometimes
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has a friction to it, josh, for which i feel bad, however, i will point out back to the top, i still own google at 26 times forward earnings and at the same time i own gm and here's another point of agreement you own it, too, at eight times forward earnings it has a lot to do with the growth rate, but i think where you and i disagree and i think this is important is i think you believe more than i do that the market gets priced right i strongly believe there are times when the market gets priced wrong and that's why i'm adding to gm today and last week, judge, to you, the market is getting gm wrong. i said it loudly and i said it repeatedly there are times when i feel the market gets priced wrong, and i don't follow what the market is doing. >> if we can continue this over a nice lunch and shake hands and everything, but josh, you want to wrap that up with the last word >> i agree with everything he just said and i think he's going to make money with all three of those high-multiple stocks. >> what about gm
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[ laughter ] >> josh is in gm >> i'm in there with you >> i know. i'm in there i'm in there >> all right our headliner today describes himself as cautiously bullish. kevin simpson is a five-star fund manager and also the cio. welcome. welcome to the program give us details and cautiously bullish. what does that mean? >> if you think about your show a month ago you had so many strategists on calling for pullbacks where there were 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and now we're here at the precipice of the tapering and all of us are clktively optimistic heading to year end and nothing's changed from the headwind stand point and everything that we were worried about in september, whether it was the supply chain, interest rates, delta variant even the debt ceiling which is a repeat test in december. none of those things have gone
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away, but the earnings season has been so strong and it's blown it out of the water that we switch from this pessimistic view to an optimistic view going forward and it's a head scratcher for sure >> one big thing you can say is it's not fully gone away it seems to be tempered somewhat and that's the prospect of higher taxes that was on a lot of people's minds with a much larger package from the biden administration than it looks like he's going to get. >> yeah. from a corporate tax standpoint, that does wonders for the market and thinking about the surprises that -- that are still coming from the third quarter for corporate earnings is terrific it's powerful, but i'm looking at the fourth quarter and i'm thinking about the consume fueling it higher and we're flush with cash as all of us head into the holiday season we're going to spend up for
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goods and that also bodes well for the markets and so much rides on the shoulders of the consumer and if you pair that with a positive view from the corporate tax standpoint that pushes the runway for stocks to go higher well into 2022 and probably beyond >> you have an interesting strategy you managed to amplify cwp enhanced diffident income etf better than as the dvo which i do note holds more cash today than you normally do does that reflect your level of caution currently? >> no, scott, and that's quite a mouthful divo is a great acronym for sure our sweet spot for cash in our portfolio is 3ers to to 5% and it's funny that you look at the allocations to cash that we have now which is hovering around 10% and 11 it seems like for the past two years, almost, we've been able to get that down to 5% and then quickly we're back at 10%. it has nothing to do with being pessimist being or bearish
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we implement a tactical cover call component and occasionally, we'll see stocks getting called away along the ride and it's just ironic that literally every time we get back to 5% cash something moves up and we see a stock get called away and our risk-adjusted returns is the primary focus and having a little bit of cash isn't the worst thing in the world and we look at it as a holding, but it's a strange animal and you cover the call manager that sometimes stocks get called along the way. >> what are the prospects of higher rates mean to your dividend-growing strategy? >> yeah. you never want to see high interest rates when investing in markets, but dividend growth is the place to be when you are in a rising interest rate environment. having said that i've only been doing this for 29 years. next year it will be 30. so it's been easy to manage money. for 32 years we've been in a decreasing interest rate environment and pretty much anything that you're looking at on the fixed income side as we
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move forward as we get the news tomorrow on taper and we talked about the interest rates beginning to increase next year, which they will and in a rising interest rate environment some people would argue there's pressure on growth stocks and people will always pay up for growth, there is an additional pressure deep value names because of the interest rate risk so i think uniquely, that sweet spot of dividend growth and for the conservative vettor looking for risk-adjusted returns with cash flow, we are well positioned going forward >> let me get some of my committee members involved josh, do you have a question for kevin? >> hi, i agree with what you have to say. i have a very strong view on this and i've held that view for a weil now i sort of feel like the market is starting to agree with me, but i'm not sure i believe that the 20% of americans who own 80% of the stock market are largely not
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enjoying themselves in this inflationary environment they're small business owners, professionals, people who are having trouble doing the things they want to do, hire the people they want to hire because of the environment and so my view has been not that the taper begins and not that it will materially change anything on the ground in terms of the prices and our economy, but i do think it will be a relief and people will be glad to see that we're going to slow down the trillions of dollars that were blowing into this economy each year at the rate that we're at what do you think about that premise? do you think there's anything there? >> i agree 100%. both you and i have similar size companies with similar size employees and it's not always easy to find staffering. if you think about it and take it one step further, this economy can hand elt a taper it could have handled it a long time ago, but from the standpoint of the fed being
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incredibly patient and telegraphing what they do and to their credit, we're coming off a global pandemic that none of us expected it's different than 2008 and 2009 coming off of something that was self-fulfilling prophecy of bad decisions. so this fed will be patient, but the marks can handle it and they can support it and your clients who are the business owners, to your point will find that the economy will be in a better place from a hiring standpoint we can handle inflation at 2% or 3% what we don't want to see is inflation running too hot for too long, and i think that the fed is right it is transitory and it is temporary. scott, you had the best line of the day and you were talking about transitory being the fall. you just meant last paul and it's a weigh of how long is transitory and we are hoovering
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at the level, companies can do pretty will because -- you can't put the higher wages back in the bottle and you can't put the genie back in the bottle and the stocks can do well and this economy will thrive if we have modest inflation and modest interest rate growth so i agree totally, josh. >> you have, obviously, blue chip names in this etf from top to bottom. whether it's microsoft or united health apple, mcdonald's, goldman sachs, honeywell, visa, j.p. morgan and on and on and on. how often is a turnover within those holdings >> sometimes there's more turnover than you would like because of the covered call component and that can work in our favor. if stocks roll over it can be somewhat frustrating as they continue to run higher the idea of using covered calls is a technique to harvest
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volatility and we'ra able to smooth out the ride and we will generate cash flow we've had caterpillar call, and we've had nike called, and it's not a situation where it's perfect and it continues to run and sort of the same thing to an extent ask you can get back into the name at much lower prices and in those instances you brag about it and times you pay more, which is fine and we're not as local and the idea of turnover with covered calls is something that's real and etfs are terrific and qualified accounts are non-profits and surprisingly right now we're seeing about half of our assets that come through financial advisers that go around the country and half of our accounts are not qualified, scott and the reason being is there's this quest for income and yield and uniquely, a combination of covered and also
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dividends can satisfy that niche especially when interest rates are at 0%. >> you can welcome a new fund manager to the show. we'll talk to you soon thank for coming on. >> that's kevin simpson, capital wealth planning, the founder and the cio. the big analyst calls and we're back in just two minutes e vibra] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity.
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this hour. opening statements are under way in the murder trial of kyle riddenhouse. he is accused of shooting three people, killing two of them during a racial injustice protest in wisconsin last year jury selection took just one day despite many potential jurors saying they had already made up their minds about the case >> on the news, what we know about that jury and also the strategies that both legal teams are likely to use. that's tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time the justice department is suing to block a major acquisition in the publishing industry. penguin randomhouse's bid for simon & schuster the suit says it would have outsized influence on which books are published in the u.s. and how much authors are paid. the cleveland baseball team is taking down the indians sign from progressive stadium after it transitions to the cleveland
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guardians. years of complaints that the indian names is not culturally sensitive. the butterball turkey hot line is up and accepting calls. i have called them numerous times. anxious thanksgiving cooks can get advice on how to prepare the per f perfect or at least a better bird >> i hope that supply chain is not having any problems this year >> i hope not, too. >> that would be a big problem first, we have home depot and lowe's reiterated outperform. it, jason sniem, you own both of these names. scott, i like them both. i don't try to over complicate the housing market and the demand surpasses supply here so i like lows and there's margin growth and business analytics growth that they've done, but i like both names here
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i think there's an opportunity here and to the end of the quarter and into early next year >> farmer jim, depot is not that far from a high in its own right. 375.15 is the 52-week high and 367.88 is where it currently trades you have an opportunity in early january and this is important, in early january the market sold them off and maybe it was early february after a pretty good earnings report and that's where i got in and what i said earlier, the market does not always get the price right that's what i'm doing with the names i'm picking up today the market gets it wrong sometimes on earnings and you've got to pounce when it happens and this is one i intend to own for a long time. you asked mow last week, why this and not lowe's? i like home depot because it's bigger when i see two things that are almost identical i always go to the bigger company. >> let's talk about two companies that do similar stuff and exxon and chevron, stephanie
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link because exxon gets cut to a sell the target gets lowered to 50 bucks at truist. you own chevron. why have you chosen to own chevron over exxon like jim has chosen home depot over lowe's? >> well, i think they have stronger fundamentals and much better execution now it's lagged exxon year to date by 23%. i think there's an opportunity and they've done a great job in terms of asset sales and m & a and the 2022 numbers, 10% they could double the dividend next year alone not saying exxon can't, but at the discount it's trading to at exxon, chevron is the better own here all right. we'll take a quick break we'll come back and trade some of the day's biggest earnings movers including one stock that josh brown told you to buy i think more than a year ago that stock hit a new high today. we'll talk about it next
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welcome back to "the halftime report. watch shares of zillow they're sinking again today, down 20% in just the past two sessions as the company plans to sell 7,000 of its homes for roughly $2.8 billion according to a report from bloomberg
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zillow said it would stop, halt, making new offers to buy new homes. their analysis found 66% of zillow's current inventory is listed below its purchase price. two-day drop, by the way, has zillow tracking since march 2020, if this decline continues and scott, all of this ahead of this big earnings report coming out after today's closing bell back over to you >> i think the ceo's coming on after that which will be a very important interview given the fact what the stock is doing right now. don chu, thank you very much somebody who is pretty happy that they no longer own this name even if they had to get out at a bit of a loss >> yeah. i got this one wrong, and look, i don't think that people should be screaming at the ceo. sometimes you try things and they don't go well they're not good at this, it turns out so they give it a lot. the realtors all laughed at
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that real estate is not a software business, these people have noed where what they're doing a lot of people said of course they know what they're doing look how big the stock's market cap is, but the realtors in the local markets watching these people buy real estate with a blindfold on turned out to have been right and the people who bought into the story like myself were wrong. so i took a small loss a couple of weeks ago i don't look back. it's all good and i'm not looking to buy back into it and it will be a while for zillow to tell investors and this one went horribly wrong we flashed up the promo, and it's an exclusive interview and it's 4:00 today, and rich bardon, the zillow ceo you don't want to miss that interview. so you get some right, you get some wrong one you got incredibly right on this program is simon property group which you first bought and recommended more than a year ago and that stock hit a new high today. we pulled up the chart and after earnings, that stock 159.97 and
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160 was the high and 6%, nonetheless, josh. >> so there's something about the stock market that makes it asymmetric in terms of risk and reward to the -- to the reward. and where that asymmetric return comes from is that as an investor when you know you're getting a stock right meaning you buy it for a reason, and then the reason that you thought was true continues to be evidentiary in everything the company announces and everything that happens, you can continue to agree and when you find out immediately you can get out very quickly. simon and zillow are two sides of the coin and it's interesting that they came up at the same
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time i walked away. simon, i was validated almost immediately and started buying them in the 60s and what i thought i had right turned out the thing i had right which was the mass exodus of the suburbs was going to mean grit things for a-class malls and the type of places where you'll shop and it's the day's activity with your family and the restaurants and movie theaters and all of the other things that come alongside the stores themselveses the other thing with simon is they're good operators of retailers. they have a joint venture by which they buy jc penney and brooks brothers and put in people to operate them and david simon went out of his way to point out that a lot of this earnings growth and the shocking upside how well the retailers that are turning around are doing within the malls thery a lot here to like and blew out guidance and adjusted
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funds of admiration. very big dif dent increase, and i'm going to stick with this thing and what's instructed about it for me is i added to it on the way up. the company continued to tell me, no, no, no, you're right o ridge originally, companies that are winning and losing and to cut your losses quickly where you are long >> coming up, it's a big breakout that many on wall street have been waiting for and it looks like it's under weight right now and we talked about it at the very top of of the show and we'll debate it and we'll talk to a top technician about it we'll do it next we'll debate itk to a top technician about it we'll do it next [announcer] and this fight is a long way from over, leonard is coming back. ♪♪
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we mentionedat the top of the program, the russell 2000 hit being a new record high today and the next guest is calling for a bigger breakout. jonathan krinsky, what tells you there's more room to run here? >> hi, scott there are three main reason reasons here perhaps what is most obvious is we've had eight months of
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consolidation and we had a breakout on the russ will 2000, and we've seen other metrix of small caps break out and the russell is the most popular and there's vanguard that's broken out and you have a third of the russell 2000 hitting a one-month high and internally it's confirming that. the second reason is seasonality and i think that's a topic that's widely discussed and i think it's important that seasonality shouldn't be in a vacuum and is part of the prior periods and over the last ten years, the russell 2000 has been up nine over of the last ten years in november and it's by far the last month over that period and the reason why that works is september and october tend to be choppy and that sets up a rally and it would be much less likely if we'd seen a
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massive rally in september or october which we didn't get and then the final piece and this is the one they think most people don't look at. you have to look at the makeup of the russell 2000, and i think a lot of people maybe missed this, but health care is the largest weighting in the russell, too much of that is biotech. health care is 18% biotech is still down 34% from its highs on an equal weight basis and we're starting to see the xpi breakout from this pretty significant base and we have low seasonality for biotech and it's been up the last nine years in a row in november again, similar reasons to what we mentioned in small caps and in the last nine years about 7%. so you put all of that together and it's a breakout that i think is a little maybe too obvious, but we don't want to over think it. >> i appreciate you coming on. jonathan krinsky, thank you very
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much stephanie, you've been there all year in terms of small caps and now you're getting paid. >> i think small caps, value and cyclicals all trade in the same factor and that is better economic growth and i know we were disappointed with the third quarter gdp number of 3% and since delta has peaked and we have boosters and kids that now can get vaccinated and 4q should be better. we still have supply constraints over time and i don't expect it until the second half of 2022 and maybe even be to '23 and incrementally should be better and you'll have above trend growth in 4q and above trend growth in the first half of 2022 and that should favor economic l ly sensitive companies >> small cap are making big gains today and one is especially to the top of the list avis shares are soaring, not as
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much as they were earlier and you won't believhomu ty e w chhe were up. we'll talk about that next right here on the half that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪
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visit indeed.com/hire . it's one of the stock stories of the day, no doubt avis is soaring. phil lebeau joins us now phil i don't know what you make of this. stock is $200 off its highest levels of the day. got up to $545 it's at $357 high volume. it was up, i don't know, last i saw, like 185%
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now just a double. just up a little more than 100% what's up? >> look, let's be clear here that they've posted a blowout third quarter. much better than anybody was expecting's look at the numbers. their profit was 42% above the consensus. they are more than $1 billion last quarter most expecting to come in at $741 million record high pricing. $83 a day here in the u.s. 39% compared to same time 2019 fleet size increasing. i love this chart, scott check out this chart going back to the pre-pandemic low. basically pre-pandemic low trading at $9 a share back in march of 2020 when everybody says, oh, nobody's going to rent a vehicle again. never business travel again. never people traveling and using rental cars. yeah not really the case. morgan stanley raising its revenue estimates and earnings estimates for '21, '22 and '23
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look, bottom line, people are piling into this trading volume, 8.5 times 30-day average trading volume remember, scott, a heavy short interest here. that's what we saw, i think. shorts flushed out when this stock was trading up close to $500 a share. >> quick willy ask, frankly not sure what we make of this tesla/hete tesla/hertz thing. what's the problem already taking deliveries and musk goes out of his way to say we don't even have a signed contract, i think exactly what we said. why are we having this conversation either it is or it isn't >> look, there is clearly a deal hertz came out today said we're taking deliveries here is there technically a signed contract in some fashion an agreement no indication hertz will not take delivery of 100,000 vehicles issue, scott, in the eyes of some tesla shareholders whether or not tesla sold the model 3s,
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100,000 model 3s or discount common when automakers sell to a rental car company they don't pay top dollar for those and why they killed virgin i think elon musk is trying to assure people they are not selling model 3s at discount here hcoju say that. phil lebeau, thank you, as always final trades, next. agile and liquid. a proven protector. an ever-evolving enabler of bold decisions. an asset more relevant than ever before. gold. your strategic advantage.
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for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin all right. start us off with "final trades." >> twilio here crushed on earnings last week due to guidance.
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i see long growth here. >> big, big pullback jim. >> petroleum given an opportunity. >> josh brown? >> coinbase looks like it wants to break out of its ipo day highs. >> steph >> diamondback energy. great quarter. higher prediction. $4 billion in free cash flow raised dividend third time this year. >> good to see everybody "the exchange" starts right now. thank you, scott, and hi everybody. i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead on "the exchange. vaccines for kids. the cdc's advisory panel is just hours away from voting to give pfizer's covid shot to kids ages 5 through 11 we will speak to pfizer ceo about that, and about the strong earnings that had thecompany shares up almost 5% today. and inflation has eclipse covid as the number one threat to the economy, according to our latest cnbc survey

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