tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC November 1, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
>>jim this morning talking about on semiconductor, which will have implications for nxp, but maybe we'll see how the auto supply chain is loosening up when it comes to autos and of course, a big dose of macro with the fed meeting and statement and presser and the jobs number coming up on friday. let's get to the judge and the half >> all right, carl, thanks so much welcome to the halftime report front and center this hour new month, now record highs. what will november hold for your money? we debate that today with the committee. joining me, bren, joe, steve, and pete, cofounder of market rebellion.com. let's take a look at the markets. dow, nasdaq, s&p, all setting new records today. dow going above 36,000 for the first time ever. we've got historically the second best month for stocks that being november. so joe, how do you feel about the setup going into the end of
the year now >> well, i feel good about the setup. we're coming off an earnings season where obviously since the beginning, we've seen the s&p rise 5.5%. what's interesting about what is that the support is coming from a lot of sectors that i don't think the expectation was there for that support to really be a contributing factor. i think everyone was looking at technology saying okay, it's going to be megacap technology that's going to lift the index higher, but it's really been financials and energy, which are reporting 15% above profit and estimate i think the path is higher here as we move forward i understand we're going to get earnings with a lot of consumer oriented equity names in the coming days, but i think you focus on what has been working in the market. stay with that strategy and i highlight financials because that's been working. also, energy, materials and some of the consumer names that are working today as well. >> pete, smooth sailing now into
the end of the year? is that how the setup is to you? >> i would say that the only reason i would say yes to that would be i see this rotation, joe was just talking about, but it's a different leadership almost every day, scott. some days, energy's up a couple of a percent other day, it's down but the reality is this rotation within these various sectors has been very healthy. this is what we've been looking for. take a look at october for instance, we started at the beginning of the month, what would be the delivers, different comps. we were in about a 24 vix and now we're closer to, got underneath 15, but let's call it 16 or 17 so it gives you a little bit of an idea of where the money is moving around and the nervousness of the money as well and i think we're seeing that start to come off because we're seeing as we've gotten through the this earnings season, generally, most of them were accepted pretty well obviously late last week with
apple and amazon, there was a different story, but that rebounded towards the end of the day. this rotation makes me feel more comfortable about the markets going into the end of the year we have supply constraints we're going to have labor issues those are in front of us for many months, but will it get better yeah i think as we push through the rest of this year, it will improve into 2022. >> cramer says today we're in some bizarre halceon period. november to january is usually the s&p's best stretch so you've got history on your side and by the way, the naysayers are getting tired and i'm looking down again at morgan stanley's mike wilson. still negative, of course, but the recent trend is not his friend he knows it. he says today, bottom line, the fundamental picture for stocks is deteriorating at the fed starts to tighten monetary
policy, i'm jumping around a little, asset prices are continuing to rise as retail investors keep employeeing excess cash into these investments. we think this bullish trend can continue into thanksgiving, but not much longer. what do you think? >> first of all, we have to remember that the markets like to climb this wall of worry and i do think that the corporate tax increases that seem to be off the table of moving that higher is incredibly positive because that could have taken away about $10 of s&p earnings next year. now talking about the fed, so the fed is expected to start their taper. announce the taper this week we think they're going to do 15 billion a month per month. so that will say they would end that in june of '22. so as mike's talking about rate hike, just to remember, fed funds, we're at zero zero to 25 at the 2022, that puts fed funds
at 75 basis points so that is a wonderful environment when fed funds are at 75 and you have the ten-year between say 150 and 2. that's actually a healthy environment. what's not healthy is staying at zero so i think that low rate environment that is here to stay because remember, we have about 30 trillion of, we have 30 trillion of u.s. debt by the end of the year. as rates average 1%, that's $300 billion a year in interest that we'll be paying so the fed needs to keep rates low. i think that bodes well for technology and a bunch of other sectors. so i think inflation will be higher and you know, i want to close this thought on something that i heard satya say on his earnings call he said digital technologies are a deflationary force in a deflationary economy i think where inflation will run
higher over the next few years than it has. i think technology is a great place to be and i love how he summarized what microsoft is doing. >> weiss, mr. positive you always bring good vibes to the show always happy go lucky. how do you see it? between now and the end of the year >> well, good seeing you, too, scott. >> welcome, weiss. hope you had a nice weekend. >> i did look, i think there's going to be some volatility the trends of least resistance is higher. no surprise the fed's going to announce a tapering tomorrow and i think do it be iy the 15th that's pretty much priced in already. they may talk about bringing rate increases forward we'll get to see that. i think the market believes that will happen, also. i think it's a question of where you want to be we are seeing some loosening in the supply chain i got a copy of pete's book in a few days instead of three weeks. that's a joke.
i've never ordered his book, but i am getting goods that are coming in sooner rather than later. so look, as supply chain loosens in my view, you're not going to want to be in the hard commodities. you're going to want to be in the consumer stocks. i've got representation there. and in the chips we're hearing from land rover is chip crisis is easing for them i think it's going to be consistent vo volkswagen said is quarter is going to be good i think 5% would be a phenomenal move but there's going to be volatility so you have to be prepared for that >> 5%, i think anybody would take 5% over the next couple of months compared to what it looked like might happen, steve, not three weeks ago. >> that's the upside top my view you're not going to see it run away so when we talk about new highs, if you close a point up today
versus yesterday or friday, that's a new high. so you have to to be careful of that again, it's the rotation that's going to happen underneath and i believe in some of the harder commodities, you're going to lose team because everybody's on board. nobody thinks they're going down and guess what, commodities, just impossible. it's always the marginal buyer or seller that gets you into trouble. >> are we cool with the taper? or are we going to have a new bout of volatility >> i think the taper is priced in i would expect a schedule that ends at some point at the end of june i think for anyone to think we should not be tapering would be ludicrous at this point and i think the federal reserve needs to be responding now that we understand what the infrastructure and social
spending bill is going to be looking like to bryn's point, i don't think there's as much fiscal tightening as markets maybe were concerned with a couple of months ago i think the federal reserve has to acknowledge that and i think they have to take a far more hawkish position, both surrounding tapering and the introduction of tightening and they'll do it in some form of their communication. >> let's bring in our fed whisperer on the beat. so, steve, it's a done deal. is it going to happen? >> yeah. pretty sure we're going to have an announcement tomorrow it will be wednesday the announcement will come out they're going to start in november and i think they're going to be pretty aggressive. i think an earlier speaker had the number right about 15 billion a month that should get them down by mid next year. i'm interested the way the market is talking about or taking this news on the fed. what's happened obviously is the market is completely repriced
next year. when you look at the probabilities of rate hikes to follow the taper, it's a big change i'm looking now at a 62% chance of a june rate hike now priced in to the fed funds futures market 95% by december. and that's obviously six months earlier than we would have thought then you go on and look at the chance of a second hike, scott. 52% chance of a second hike price by september 77% by december of 2022. i would have thought in the face of that news i would have seen a little bit of perspiration on the head of najarian there, but i got high definition tv didn't see not a bead of sweat he's just taking it completely -- i got high def here, scott. not seeing it at all >> so to repeat on that note, all jokes aside, do we believe what joe said? that it's baked? market gets it whether it's a taper or -- i
hear you on the first rate hike thing. if the market was so concerned with that, steve, it wouldn't be reacting the way it is and rates wouldn't be where they are >> i'd be a little careful about this about when the market internalizes stuff it's in the fed funds futures market i don't see it and we'll report this tomorrow. this kind of aggressive pricing is not in the fed funds survey yet, which means the guys watching and thinking about things and not the market pricing are not as aggressive. they're more than they were, but not quite as aggressive as the market is now. not clear how much of it has been internalized. if you're outlook is the following, that inflation come down at least somewhat under control then you look at the
stocks, this is about the reopening or maybe the re, re, re, reopening and better growth ahead, you do all of this against a 60 or 75 basis point fed funds mark, i don't think it's that much of an upward slope for either earnings or growth to have to traverse in order to have some good results. >> you think we're going to lose, steve, the transitory word on wednesday >> it may well be. i do think still the fed has this idea that we get the supply chain under control and that we start to alleviate those issues, but i think that they're less thinking that this is going away for example by the beginning of the year member it was the fall, the one we're sort of in now, when it was going to go away, then it was the end of the year and now, it looks like they believe that inflation is probably going to be around until sometime in the summer of 2022
>> they meant the fall of 2022 pete, let me come to you okay, so we think the taper is baked in to the market but if we're left on wednesday afternoon by the fed chair with the idea that rate hikes are in fact pulled way more forward than we expected, david costa at goldman's pulled his view forward to july of '22 liesman's chart showed us june are we cool with that, too, or does that bring more turbulence in the markets because we have to get our arms around the fact that rates are going to be moving higher and it's not just a taper? >> i would say some is baked in. not all. i don't know that markets always want to fully digest something until they fully know the facts. what are we laying out there for
them that's something the fed's going to address and give us more of a pinpoint on things in terms of when things are going to happen. i think that's something that we always have to deal with that, but i think overall, scott, let's be honest. when you look at where we really are right now, in terms of these rates, yes, those hikes are going to cause a little bit of maybe turbulence here and there, but i think the reality is that much of it is priced in and going forward, we have such an expectation of it even if you're not fully buying in on it. i think you're feeling more comfortable. you know what's really probably in front of us and it doesn't mean that technology gets slapped around i don't think it means that at all. i think it means when you look at these quality companies we've been looking at, we look at these faang names, i think they do very, very well in this continual very low rate environment. because even with a couple of raises, scott, we're still talking about incredibly low
rates. because of that, i think the technology space and other spaces will react very, very nicely going forward >> bryn, back to mike wilson, right? he makes the case that the fundamental picture is deteriorating for stocks and links it to the fed starting policy on the other hand, i've got fund stats tom lee, who's been mr. all in everything for a while. he says we're entering a buy november and hold on for dear life versus the other side of sell in may. so you have two polar opposite views of where stocks are going to go as a result in part of the fed. mike wilson says that's going to be the straw and you know, i hear optimism on the other side that says well, we can deal with it we can take it the market expects it. it's all good. >> yeah, i think tom is spot on. obviously, we have the seasonality going into the last two months of the year i get what mike is saying about the fed and that deteriorates
the outlook, but where i think the flaw in that, we're at zero rates and so the fed raising rates, say we do the taper, which is fiscally irresponsible if we don't do and so the market definitely might have some indigestion as that taper starts and ends or it may not. nothing mike is saying is a secret it's already priced into the market or it seems to be as i said earlier, the rate environment is so low right now. it means that if we can get rates off of zero, that's a really positive thing. that shows that the economy is doing well what's not positive is what you have in europe where you still have negative rates on the short end because they have not been able to lift the economy to actually have positive rates so i think it's ultimately would be viewed as positive and i think mike needs to throw in the towel. i'd be interested if he does because if we go into december and we're still higher and he hasn't thrown in the towel, that's a really painful trade.
>> he's hanging on to the towel by a pinkie at this point. just by the narrative that he's put forth most recently. liesman, leave me with your last thought before i move on your antenna up for any surprises this week from the fed? >> yeah, i mean i think the key questions are going to be those that ask chair powell about the idea of raising rates and how quickly that comes but you know, it's interesting i want to pick up on something pete said and something bryn said pete is right. the market's not going to internalize this until the chair and or some sort of polarity of the fed board says this is going to happen. so right an now, there's a possibility it happens you're going to price that into your idea. but you're not going to fully price in two rate hikes in june and september yet until you hear from the chair the other thing is the market's dealing with an interesting issue here it doesn't want to see inflation run away
so there might be a bid in the market that hey, if the fed is going to move faster, that's going to solve or at least address the inflation problem sooner so i can take that worry, which by the way, in our survey tomorrow, which you'll see, inflation is now the number one issue. not only in the fed survey, but in the all america survey. we talk to average americans so the idea that the fed might address that inflation problem sooner is something that i think is an upside for the market, but there might be as i think steve weiss said, a little volatile the in getting there >> sure. you'll have the doubts creep in as to whether they can do the job correctly, right make a mistake or whatever happens. >> it will move from strong hands, you'll have the strong hands weak hands thing where the people who want to hold more or fewer stocks at a higher funds rate. right now, it's zero so it's all in on stocks that will change somewhat for some holders of stocks
>> appreciate it l let's bring in adam parker welcome back are you still bullish? >> yeah. why wouldn't you be? >> well, i mean, the fed might change its policy. probably is going to change its policy rates are going to go up multiple has to come down. there's other reasons, whether i believe them or not. >> you and i have talked about this on the air every month or so for the last couple of years where the concerns are rolling whether it's china or other things i think the main question is do you think corporate earnings are going to be higher next year and if you do, i think your bias is to still like equities. >> earnings aren't going to continue it's impossible, really. they're not going to be able to continue their rate of growth as you get further away from the pandemic >> sure. forward estimates earnings from analysts in the u.s. have existed since 1978 that's when we started posting to a central location,
estimates. that's 53 years. since 1978 43 years and in 31 of those 43 years, their january estimates proved to be way too high the only years they were too low were the recoveries in year after and you're right, the analysts get too bearish at the bottom so it's normal behavior, scott, and what will happen is not, it's fine. estimates are too high next year so what. what will matter is are the actual earnings higher obviously, the stock market has not been down 31 of the last 43 years. that's the key do you think earnings will be higher i do >> i'm going to put you in the uncomfortable position of having to comment on mike wilson's latest research. you don't have to dump on him. >> nothing's more uncomfortable than being at a big firm, being bearish and being wrong.
i've been there. you're bearish in the wrong season, it's ugly. i don't envy that position i've been there. four quadrants, bullish, bearish. i think calling a market top and saying there's going to be a correction, you're saying you think earnings are going to be impaired and people aregoing t be afraid they're going to be very impaired. what do you look at that capital spending, inventory, hiring the biggest issues are going to be rising wage, input costs and commodities and transportation you see that in some places and in others, you see the companies passing it on. i like the landscape i've got 1.5% or so dividend yield. buybacks coming in that are going to be big. earnings growth. call it 6 to 8% return what looks better to you fixed income >> how long can the good times
last >> i think the fed thing is interesting. i heard you talking about what's priced in. i'm a little with pete probably isn't priced in in the short-term i think the question of priced in is the horizon. the day they announce something, there will be a rotation and maybe a selloff. the commquestion is why. because they think the economy's better if that's the case, it's bullish. the starting level matters at some level so if you're starting this low and raise it, it shouldn't ruin everything. i don't think the fed wrecks the whole thing just by raising things once or twice >> weiss, i mean, he seems to make good sense, does adam can you poke holes in his story or what? >> no, i don't poke holes in the story, but i have a question the question goes to multiple expansion. earnings are not going to be up as much as they were this year
that's just the term i believe that multiple expansion got us to a good part of where we are today and if you see a slowdown in growth, hold on, i'm not done then you had the fed, which i think they've pulled forward the rate increases, maybe even more aggressively, wouldn't that give you more downside volatility in the market >> yeah. look, it's harder to forecast the multiple and as the earnings there's more volatility. but if you look at this year, look carefully on january 1st of this year, the estimates for the s&p 500 came up 22.6% of where they are at the end of the year to where they are now and that's about what the s&p's on. in fact, there's been a tiny bit of contractions on a 12-month basis. so look, right now, i think the market's around 21 times 2022 estimates. we're looking at 21 versus
long-term. so that's the gap we're dealing with to get back to average. i think part of that is explained by the low yields, by the fact that the u.s. equity market has a superior set of companies through much of history. faang and the like software, biotech, higher margin businesses if you get the earnings growth coming in, i think you're see flaws in the market. i think the risk is, steve, you could get multiple contraction, but i don't know what that would be your base case because i think today's multiple is about right with the rate. >> your positioning view is interesting to me and i want you to explain it if not defend it you say you want to be long or overweight energy and materials, but short or underweight industrials. >> yes >> wouldn't all three of those go together? being on one side of the positive boat? >> it depends on your risk
management if you want to go all in and make a giant reflation call, you do it. what i look at is where do i think the estimates are more achievable or less you recall we've talked about this in the past we've been bullish on energy for a long time. the stocks are cheap they have positive momentum. there's supply constraints you're not really getting paid, you can get paid a lot for what could happen to oil prices i think industrials is the opposite what i've got here is i'm the one who's receiving the rising input costs in many cases and i have estimates that are 20% plus earnings every quarter through 2022 i've got high multiples on those. margins that have recovered. i'm saying we have record profitability. this past month makes sense, maybe energy materials are up ten. they're not going to maybe, not going to be up ten, the others down ten but i think the question is
requ question is can i spread out here yes, i can >> you're suggesting to potentially short industrials but making the case for stronger growth i just have a hard time believing that if you get to stronger growth, that i would want to be short industrials >> in an uptake, it's hard to be short anything i think the way you play it is relative the part of industrials that i would be short are select machinery and select capital goods, which we wrote about to h our investors where you see incremental margins built in meaning as a revenue growth, people figure more profitable. if that's the case and that's within the estimates, the input costs are rising, that's the risk i think limited industrials, their businesses are still in the, you know, recovery recovery mode as steve just said. so maybe those aren't the ones you want to short. but if you have record revenue
margin and you have rising energy costs, rising transportation, those are the riskier parts of industrial. so i think you can find naked shorts there, but i like the estimate capability of energy, materials. >> pete, good to see you >> be well >> you, too. that's adam parker all right. up next, we got tesla hitting a record high again. we've got pete making some moves in some megacap tech you need to hear about those steve weiss is adding to a name in his book. we'll do all that when we come back wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪ ♪
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welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update supreme court justices appear to be leaning in favor of a challenge to texas' near total ban on abortions conservative justices, amy coney barrett and brett kavanagh both questioning the structure of the texas law. protesters on both sides of the debate are gathered outside of the supreme court. president biden telling world leaders the u.s. will meet its pledge to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions biden making remarks at the opening of the summit. >> we're going to cut greenhouse gas emissions by well over a
gigiton by 2030. to demonstrate the united states is not only back at the table, but hopefully leading by the power of our example on the news, full coverage of the first day of the climate summit and a look at the prospects for kick starting negotiations on a new global climate deal and the labor department says it's only days away from publishing vaccine mandatesfor private businesses that will apply to firms with at least 100 employees. you are up to date, scott. back to you. >> sue, you made everybody's day today. so good to see you >> i think you guys made my day. great to see you, too. >> pete, let's talk about some of your moves today. you sold calls in microsoft and facebook you still own shares tell us what's up. >> well, those options actually exploded to the upside particularly in microsoft, scott.
so i had to take them off. just trying to be disciplined. i was buying short-term options anyway they moved rapidly as microsoft fought against some of the moves other places so i just determined, you know what, i'm going to take both of these off then reassess this week. so i'm already starting to see some interesting paper in other unusual option activity in a monster big cap tech as well so i'll give that one for you when we do the unusual later on. >> meta platforms. still got to get used to that. all right. pete tesla. >> yeah. >> the momentum to beat rolls on another new high today up 45% in a month and you bought more calls just going to keep riding the momentum all the way up? >> i am. item i'm going to continue roll with with them. in october, it was 853 bucks and it's gone up every day the monster we've seen in there,
buying more upside has been right, right, right. eventually, it will be wrong, but for now, they continue to roll up. last week, we had two monstrous hits in tesla. we've had volumes where we're well over 3 million contracts twice last week. 2 million has become the norm. today, already traded almost 1.5 million. gives you an idea the appetite that people have with the stock today trading around 1138, we had a buyer of 35 of this week's expiring 1200 calls. gives you a little bit of an idea they just keep coming and coming and coming and part of it is i think the implied volatilities has been going down. it used to to be triple digit. they used to trade 100% or more. now we talk about we got into the 40s. it's starting to rise again. we're about 55 or 60 implied volatility, but that's half of where it had been and that i think is enticing more and more
folks there as well. the fact they've come in as much they have. >> now one of surely the most unsurprising moves in the history of the halftime report, steve weiss is buying more moderna. the stock's down four and a quarter percent. i knew it was going the happen given the twitter exchanges that we had along with mr. all in, farmer jim earlier today i had it in the back of my mind and sure enough, he's buying more moderna, weiss. >> i did add to tesla calls and rolled up not all 35,000 look, on moderna, it's simple. when you get to know a stock very well, as pete knows a bunch of his stocks and bryn in terms of trading options and joe, also, you know when they're down, when they're supposed to be down. when they're down and down too much stock was down 22. i bought it down 22. this is a trading position core position i may be out today
so when they give you gifts, you have to. the reason it snapped is because the fda delayed the process for 12 to 18-year-olds and as i look at the data, and the nordic report, which is not published, cdc comes out and says, and the w.h.o. comes out and says that our data, the myocarditis is 11 per million versus 12 and change for moderna. so i'm not worried about this. i'm very full position so i can't touch this >> let me ask you that your guy came with that the other day, too it's a trading position on top of a core position why do you have that why do you need both >> it's an opportunity because i don't want to change the core position and the core position
is so large already that i don't want to keep, you know, more, keep adding stock to it. it's risk management i've seen people take these monstrous positions, frankly, and literally blow up. so as much confidence as i have in the position, there's always something that can go wrong. i sell calls i buy puts i have some puts but far below, far below the, you know -- >> you have some puts? >> yeah. i've got, i have some puts but they're so far below we call it schmuck insurance something goes wrong -- >> i'm just trying to get a handle on the hedging strategy right? having two positions that are both bullish is not necessarily a great hedging strategy, which is why i asked you the question, i'm glad you gave me some more detail more importantly, our viewers,
more detail, on how you hedge a big position you're supremely bullish about. >> yeah. and i can't hedge all of it with puts but i do hedge. i'm about two-thirds hedged on it now with puts, but again, the stock would have to have a major move for me to make any money on those. so i will suffer a loss if they go down and i do short-term puts, also >> that's why we give all the detail we can. appreciate it. i know our viewers appreciate that, too. all right, joe, bank of america. okay i know it's a weiss stock and he's had this one fora long time, but so have others pete owns bac. joe, you own bac downgraded to underperform a sell >> no. >> at baird. target stays at 42 >> no. >> well, they did. i'm telling you, yes, they did >> no. okay i'll tell you what here's the target. the target is above the december
2006 all-time high of 55.08. that's exactly where this is going. this company has $25.5 billion of excess capital. that's 7% of its entire market cap. hasn't even benefitted from loan growth net interest is going to be double digits for the next two years. i disagree see you at 55. >> pete, real quick. >> well, i would agree with joe. i'd say when you look at a valuation basis, we talk about price to book. it's still very inexpensive. measure this versus jpmorgan, other great names. i'm with joe i've owned this stock for probably the better part of a decade i'll continue to hold on to it i think it continues to go higher i think there's plenty of room to the upside. i don't think it's just 55 i think it's going much higher than that over the next year >> all right it's trying to break positive on the day. just ahead on the half, we have the big etfs to watch today,
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active management should have outperformed passive, 2020 and 2021 should have been it, yet a recent report indicates that active managers did not outperform their peers in other years. here to discuss, the author, ben johnson from morning star, along with ed rosenberg. ben, only 47% of all active managers outperformed their benchmarks in the year ending in june the performance is much worse over longer period of times. why can't active managers outperform >> what we saw in 2020 and continuing into 2021 was another data point that helped the myth that volatile the is going to create better conditions for stock pickers for bond selectors. there's any such thing as a stock picker's market. what we see is over a long period of time, active managers have a difficult task ahead of them they've got to get it right more often than not and they've got to survive to be able to prove
they're right. the ones that survive, only a tiny minority manage to outlive and outperform their passive peer >> only 10% of active fund managers outperform and you oversee several for american century and they have outperformed this year congratulations. given the odds you heard from ben here, you does an active manager outperform these days? >> i think it's staying true to what they do specifically if they're large cap growth, they stick to it as well as large cap value. but it's also making sure the fees are appropriate for the fund by having the fees set appropriately and the manager doing their job, it gives you the opportunity to outperform over the long-term >> yeah. excess fees are definitely the alpha killer equity managers aren't beating indexes, but bond fund managers
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pete, unusual. what have you got? >> well, i kind ofd teased you with that. talks about megacap tech it's apple and apple trading around 148 just below that. this week's expiring 152.5 strike calls, they bought 50,000 of these that's a major move. somebody who's expecting this stock to make a pretty significant move to the upside in a short period of time. these expire friday, november 5th. my second one is igt this is a name that's hit on multiple occasions over the last couple of months it's been right, right, right this whole ride to the upside.
we had a buyer who bought almost 25,000 for 25 cents. they've been right for a long time i'm following a long we've had it for unusual option activity multiple times. they just keep on coming for it. >> the apple thing is amazing to me only nine bucks off its high they've got the supply chain issues cost the company $6 billion according to tim cook. he says it could get worse this coming quarter or the current quarter and yet the stock and you have this activity that's so bullish and the stock is pushing 149. >> and i think part of that, too, scott, is the fact that a lot of those numbers, even though they were disappointments, were record numbers for apple. i think that gets glossed over a bit. their numbers were extraordinary. just short of what the expectations were. >> spacs, they were back in october, but with a catch. we're following that money and
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spacs made a comeback in october, leslie picker says, because she's following the money as always. leslie, what do we know? >> hey, scott, yeah. nearly double the number of spacs debuted in october compared with september. 57 total, the biggest monthly number since march, right before the market fell off a cliff. in fact this october was even
busier than last october, which is when spacs really started to take off so what's behind the recent surge? well, according to experts in this space, a lot of it is just pent-up backlog. deals that were set to debut until the market froze over regulatory and accounting concerns earlier in the spring now bankers and sponsors agree that it's now or never for spacs if they're going to list before year end but the market hasn't rebounded in the way spac issuance has the cnbc index is down more than 3% this year you can see it has really trailed off since the spring now, as a result, many of the spacs that are debuting are doing so with major concessions for investors according to a spac insider these include a greater fraction of a warrant for each unit sold, less time to find a deal, a deadline of 15 months instead of the standard 24 hours and more money held in trust. scott. >> is this like a sentiment
gauge in some respects like the markets have come back, everybody is feeling better about the markets, we're back in bull mode, bitcoin 61,000 and spacs are back >> i think that's absolutely right. this has definitely been more of a momentum trade it's something people see as having little downside a lot of hedge funds have gotten into this space. and of course there's the upside if you get into one of these spacs that tends to take a company that becomes maybe a meme stock, that said this only works if the collective investor base believes it works so when you have more of a bull market sentiment going on, spacs tend to do better as well. >> appreciate it, leslie picker. thank you. we'll take a quick break and come back with final trades. check on the new online documentary with melissa lee
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we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones time flies when you're having fun bryn, you're up first. >> visa is my final trade. since the numbers were out last week, they had great numbers jpmorgan has a target price of 277 so i think it's overdone at a good entry point but most importantly i pick houston astros for game seven world series winner. >> ooh, the asterisks. okay weiss. >> fedex good information on the whole freight industry.
>> joe >> ford. it's on the verge of a 20-year breakout. >> and pete? >> i'm going to give you hilton. there's some buying out there in april, scott. >> okay, digood stuff the market off the open today. we did have records across the board, dow, nasdaq and s&p at new highs. the dow crossing 36,000 for the first time today that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott hi, everybody, i'm kelly evans happy monday ahead this hour on "the exchange" hyperinflation how about hyperinflation for stocks all-time highs for the ow, the s&p and the nasdaq but it is a big week that could test the bulls with earnings, a fed decision and the all-important jobs report. plus, chips, cleaning and rental cars. our earnings exchange has the moves and the trade on msp, and