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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 19, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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>> i feel like the consensus has changed in the market to where instead of stagflation, higher inflation and higher growth and that's what caused this rally particularly the cyclical group. >> it is a higher metabolism economy that seems like it is going for the next few quarters at least >> we are out of time. "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee tonight's lineup -- tonight on fast we are after the chairs of netflix and united, earnings and breaking down their quarters a blockbuster debut. but it was another move in crypto land.
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and find out where our traders stand on big box battles netflix gave up all after hours gains. let's go straight to julia with the break down >> 4.4 million new subscribers u.s. and canada was slower, 70,000 new subscribers in the quarter. the company is saying it's seeing the positive effect of a stronger slate in the second half of the year, disclosing that squid games has now been watched by 142 million member households, a record and they expect the fourth quarter to be the strongest fourth quarter content offering
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yet much they say a more normal content slate next year with more originals and a release schedule that was more balanced unlike this year where the content was touched to the second half. and this letter to sh shareholders -- at the same time netflix noted the service is still relatively small. to give a better sense of the screen time, the company disclosing it will shift to reporting hours viewed rather than the number of accounts that watched a particular show and will release more viewing metrics more regularly >> thank you, julia. the setup was interesting at 20% of the last three months
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we are holding the line at break even not too bad of a reaction all things considered. >> i thought the quarter was strong given how this company is decent growth and they are on the operating margin line of things when facebook went down, i think you tweeted out that netflix saw a huge exodus from that platform to there you see where people are going net fl netflix has been in a place from until september and now and they have broken out. the fourth quarter guide was lousy, no other word to describe it it would make sense to see it trade down to the september top which was 605 or 606 that would be the healthiest thing for the stock.
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we talked about it last night and i will stick by that >> there has been a lot of talk about squid game we have given viewers the squid game for dummies version if you haven't watched it but it was released at the end of september the benefit of added subscribers, we may not see it until next quarter or the quarter afterwards >> it's up sequentially nearly 100% i would mention this i saw the movie in the theaters. i am going to see dune this weekend. i am going to see a lot of movies that we only have so much time to watch some of this stuff. as some of these shows move away from this hybrid model of release, i think you will see
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starts and you may see some softness. this massive move up 13% in the last month or so anticipates a lot of good news and for some of these companies not in the crosshairs of some of these bottlenecks as relates to supply chains, we are going to see plumpiness and weird visibility the fact this stock is unchanged on that q4 guide is bullish. but i think it should trade somewhere closer to 600. >> the stock has basically been fallow until the last few months or so. are we talking about a huge run or investors recognizing the path ahead in terms of -- we were talking about that with
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disney yesterday -- the dominance it has in streaming. >> i can hear carter saying that i think what we are talking about is it was the year of dead money from july of 2020 to july of 2021. i know tom rogers is about to give us some of the reasons why. three things i heard that hit the tape, first of all, talking about a production cost advantage to peers, talking about technology as cost of revenue going down then it leads to the third thing which is the most impressive to me which i have been most critical of netflix is that they will be cash flow positive in 2022 and beyond much this is a company starting to talk about profitability and give you a sense of where they can turn the
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screws on. that, to me is most impressive they didn't talk about gaming and i think that is another upside we know that stuff has been pulled forward and there is negative pressure. i don't care about that. >> karen, for so long there is so much bear a lot of those things have gone away is it just valuation at this point? >> to me it's just valuation also, i guess they have this first mover advantage. they did a fantastic job keeping that and accelerating. the landscape has gotten more competitive. that would be another part of a bear thesis. to me it's just valuation but i wouldn't short it. i agree with tim, the idea of profitability which has been a
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pie in the sky one day they will on content creation they have done a phenomenal job. i wouldn't be sure, but there is a few things you can do to make a bear case. i am not making it it has been impressive i think that fourth quarte wasn't terrible. they don't often give -- they don't overpromise and underdeliver i didn't think that fourth quarter guide was bad actually >> in terms of competition, it's a threat on some level, but on some level does it also show that netflix is really just trouncing everyone at this point in terms of getting the content cost under control in terms of being able to source content >> absolutely.
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without question that's been the case for quite sometime obviously people are trying to get in the space that's wonderful, but as karen mentioned, the first mover advantage is formidable. i am sure tom, if i don't get an opportunity to say it after he is on did, is poetic about it. it's netflix's world and everybody is playing in it they have had a big run since september and it makes sense to have a bit of a pullback 605, if we get down there again, you buy with both hands. >> seems like the perfect time to intro tom rogers. he used to run tivo. he is an cnbc contributor.
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tom, great to see you. >> i don't know how to live up to that billing. i am students of this whole hanley so the idea i am the stud is a little off. n netflix had a strong quarter i have been consistent that i believe it is in a category by itself there is nothing about this quarter that disswaduades me fr this view. it just has a model down that none of the other companies, including disney, has. the size of its budget to maintain engagement with the competition. its average revenue per sub just continues to go. it's all demographic
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it's not younger demographic the model is intact. there are things that show the contrast with others disney gets marked off and compared to it look at asia you are now talking about average revenue per sub, about 50 cents netflix is coming in at about 20 times that in the asian market people are taking shots that growth in the u.s. is slow netflix hasn't capped out at that kind of number much it has the demographic behind it as younger and younger household formation occurs people aren't going to have household satellite. they will have streaming and netflix will be in every streaming home there is nothing that disswads
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-- dissuades me that this isn't the leader >> how is netflix maintaining what you think is a sizable and perhaps insurmountable lead over its competitors? >> when you can introduce where it's getting into its content budget a new movie or show every day -- you are not going to have a squid game in every show -- but the odds are you will have far more shots on goal and with that far more super hits than anybody else i think we are seeing that on the tv show type they won more emmy awards than any network has in the history of television in a single season we are talking about quality overall, but we haven't really seen them come out with movies with the same kind of cultural impact that they have had with tv
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i think we will begin to see a focus on that and that will spur things forward the interesting thing about squid game is it is a television show which lends itself so well to gaming. others are taking advantage of that gaming. but it shows they can put together television that will drive the gaming business and that's a huge additional way to drive engagement, particularly among younger demographics >> how important is gaming i have said he is probably one of the most underrated ceos in the country. but is there a way to quantify what this could potentially mean with netflix >> i agree it's where are the eyes of
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younger demographics older demographics are still watching six hours a day of tv, but younger demographics are down to about two hours. where are they going gaming, social media as well, but gaming is a big chunk of that if you want to maintain your relevance -- remember, netflix is beating disney when it comes to engaging young people that's something young people forget everybody thinks disney is the juggernaut of the younger demographic. it is not, netflix has that. how do they maintain that advantage? you have to move them to where younger d remos are netflix engagement in terms of
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time spent went from about four times disney to about six times disney in the quarter. they are growing that advantage. understanding that younger group and thousand skew it -- how to skew it. they are explicit they are not going to have incremal subscriptions, but i think it will allow then to raise price over time. on average their rate went up 7% worldwide in the quarter and disney declined 25%. there is a lot to look at relative to how they are managing this model. >> tom, always great to see you. thank you so much. dan nathan, what will you listen for in this presentation questions are already sent in.
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what are you listening for >> he brought up gaming. and that it was not disney and the like i think tom brought up their success in movies. we think back to 2019, they had "the irishman" with all of the favorites directing, scorsese, and it was kind of a bomb. then they get this one from south korea and it creates billions of dollars. i think disney has an upper hand when you think of the franchises, if that will be more of a threat outside of the home as we get past this pandemic >> "the irishman" was like ten hours long
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i think that was the problem 23 million shares changed hands making it one of the busiest days ever. bitcoin traded on a record high. and shares are up nearly 25% in the last month tim, you flagged this earlier. >> i have it up 37% in 11 sessions if you look at the correlation between coinbase and bitcoin historically it was almost one to one that coinbase has had this rally -- there are a number of reasons -- i think the laggert effect, it is good not only for the crypto coin getting vafd, but regulated
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products, coinbase and its platform are folks who will continue to be active in the space and want more ability. that user base is something that is a huge advantage here i think that demo plays that advantage. but that's part of the story >> this is one that you noticed, guy. it went down a little more than a percent today. maybe it was a source of funds >> maybe no question about it, people looking to finance or pay for, getting into their crypto, it makes a lot of sense i think you bet against it at this point stay in at your own peril much i think they have about 108,000 bitcoin on their balance sheet that number will likely go up.
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there is a way to play bitcoin in stocks, but to your point today, i think that's a source of funds today if you are revving up for tesla, that stock is on a tear since rngseain we are all over the after hours session of united. the stock is higher. so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪
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go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. welcome back to "fast money. united airlines is popping phil lebeau has the details. >> stocks are moving higher because the numbers are better than expected. yes, it was a loss revenue wasa little better tha expected one fact people should keep in mind in terms of the third quarter, fuel cost, up 63% from a year ago it's the fourth quarter people are interested in.
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q3 was down 32% on the revenue side two other notes regarding united as we look at shares the company is not giving a target day for when it expects to be profitable, q1, when will it happen in 2022? and the company is saying it is seeing strengthening in international and corporate bookings how much the company is not giving us the information. you don't want to miss when we talk to the ceo tomorrow mornin on squawk box. yes, we will be asking him how much have corporate and international bookings improved and what do you expect for the holiday season >> fuel costs, usually we see
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fuel surcharges. has the dynamic changed that they can't pass the full cost to the consumer >> maybe not the full cost but they will be passing it along to the consumer 63% year over year is a huge increase it is not a huge increase compared to two years ago but any time you see an increase of 63% that raises the question how much can you pass onto the consumer, and, yes, some of that will be passed onto the consumer >> thanks. i will look forward to it. tim, how do you trade this one >> before the announcement the chart wasn't great looking international capacity growing 10% next year is exciting.
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high profit business i think this is something people should be starting to focus on much the fact these costs are coming are chasm they will be below 2019 levels by next year is impressive they have probably taken some of covid to get leaner and meaner, but getting more aircraft back into service reduces overall costs. i think you have to like airlines longer term >> i like how tim did that, a chasm in the b block travel, rising costs and another cost slapped on them much. >> i don't think the fuel cost surcharge will be enough to
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dissuade people who haven't traveled in a long time who really want to i think tim's point about chasm is an interesting one. if they are below 2019 -- you know the expression, never let a crisis go to waste it may have been that for them, run the business more efficiently. i am not long. i have made my reopen bet in live nation which i think is about as correlated as you can get. the flip side of that chasm is reduction in balance sheet >> three chasms from karen in one go here is what iscoming up - adam jonas says get ready for revved up profits. he joins us ahead. plus the battle line drawn
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between walmart and target find out which corner our traders are in you are watching "fast money" live from the market site in times square for just $27.50. that's our everyday price. plus, our plans always come with unlimited talk, text and data included. so, switch to t-mobile and get 2 lines of unlimited for only $27.50 a line. that's half the price of verizon or at&t. only at t-mobile. the leader in 5g. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to "fast money. tesla auto maker reports earnings tomorrow. one analyst says buckle up adam from morgan stanley joins us great to have you with us. you have a $900 12-month target
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on tesla, and it's close to that it seems like the market is factoring in a lot given the price check much. >> credit to your audience, it can move faster than the sell side keep an open mind. i think what is going on with tesla is bigger than the quarter. we have arms race and tech and talent how do they use that stat will be the judge but just so we are not locked in to 7900 either way, each million units you give tesla is about 250 much if you want to take that to $10 million, some people do we are not there yet >> do you think the market is
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understinting manufacturing and sale i feel like they go hand in hand the gigapress, the notion that an entire chassis could be made out of one piece of material >> isn't that bonkers? while other companies look how could they use their existing body shops and lines, they look at gigapress and they are tearing down their model and saying how does he do the whole thing. elon can experiment and use each new factory for these profound things it harkens back to the moving assembly line. we may have had the model t moment, but we haven't had revolution manufacturing
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elon, can you get a car that can go on sale in india. talking about turning india into a renewable super state for a $15,000 car, that would be -- yeah, now you are getting serious. >> this is karen thanks for being on. can anyone or group of companies catch up with tesla in the next decade >> well, it's going to be real hard in their current form we don't want to count them out much there is a lot of capital in detroit and elsewhere and they will get support of local governments and policies i think elon would like to see companies like that thrive and
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do well. he is not trying to destroy them i think he is making them better much you could see how volkswagen talked about that, too much he has given time to them and others. in their current form very challenging because of skills transferability. but i think surviving would be a good case and something that could keep up with the stock market would be excellent, but if you want to be a compounder that could have unlimited capital and autonomy, it's tough to hang with tesla to this point we have not seen that happen. >> they have put a lot of eggs in the china basket. is that concerning given what is going on there >> yes i think expectations around
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china have been daldialed back a lot much i think the next few years will be growth outside of china, india, vietnam, maybe australia. i think the geographic diversification outside of china is what you will see and vehicle platforms and models they just unveiled an atv. we are looking for multiple body styles maybe we can safe ve this for another time but the correlation between tesla and bitcoin is .9. and i think even things like spacex we were getting more calls about spacex and what that could mean for tesla than tesla's third quarter itself >> i want to ask you one
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question about that. since there is investor interest in space at large. what could it mean for tesla if it went public and iffie elon musk devotes timo spacex, does that hurt tesla much. >> in order to be a huge company it requires access to capital. that's all i will say there. dude, you are putting 100 tons in orbit and will beat nasa to the moon, do you think he will solve insurance issues on cars
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i think spending time on spacex, i think it's a wonderful thing if tesla can say we will take it from here, i will be involved, but i am going to be spending time in texas building the space economy and taking spacex to a whole new level. that's what is capturing the attention of your audience and my audience on the investor side much. >> when you put it in those simple terms -- thanks for being with us. tesla is objectifying the options market listen to this -- let's bring in mike who spotted this how rare is it
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>> how rare to be number one for a month. tesla has attracted traders for a while. option contract represent 100 shares so that's basically 132 million shares of option trading on average over the past 20 trading days there are other stocks approaching that same number, but their share prices are considerably lower if you look at apple, the share price is considerably less as welch when you look at those two things, tesla is a runaway winner typically this is a stock that has moved quite a lot on average, nearly 10% from about a day or two before earnings until the end of that week much interestingly the options market is not implying a move that big and under 5%
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but the most bullish options contract we saw was the 900 we saw. those were traded just under $9. it seems that there are bullish bets going into earnings and betting that they could approach the all time high we saw earlier this year. >> fascinating, .9 >> mel these are $2 trillion in assets that didn't exist in the last 18 months to 2 years. we talked about meme stocks much a lot of people are convinced there is advantages despite low market share and probably 60% of
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the market cap of autos. i found adam's take interesting. he started out the conversation by saying these viewers made it happen, through meems and it looks like like they are making it happen through call options >> mike, we will see you on the full show friday at 5:30 battle lines have been drawn between target and walmart analysts picking sides who is the better bet? and a tough day for ulta beauty we will break down opportunity of this name when "fast money" returns. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor
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revenue growth which name are you betting on? karen, i sort of know the answer to this, but why >> i am betting on target, but not not betting on walmart i have a position there, too, but i am betting on target to me i think target is doing everything walmart is and target is cheaper and i think the mix of target which is less grocery and more apparel, merchandise, home, i like their mix better, valuation better i like target better i don't dislike target i'm long but they made target leave the party. i don't know why much i think target is a great guest at the party. >> tim >> walmart it's hard to argue with karen.
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target has outperformed walmart by 45% year-to-date. it's been kind of absurd when you consider performance people that look at that stuff say i would rather own walmart i would rather own walmart in terms of ecommerce penetration they are going from mostly grocery play into more e-commerce fl food inflation is good for these guys i think both of these companies help walmart more because they are bigger >> cramer is weighing in on this battle you can read it by being a member of the investing club or using the code on the side of the screen
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selected results released for the first quarter of its fiscal year. the company says labor and commodity challenges are weighted which decreased versus the same quarter in 2021 the company said we are working with our partners to gain further stabilization of the supply chain in addition we have taking incremental pricing action to offset inflationary costs as we move forward i am sure there will be much more to come tomorrow. back to you. >> thanks. guy, that's a pretty sharp move. >> pretty sharp move now the stock is off 45% since the
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february all-time high of 78 or so this stock has showed weakness and now is getting accelerated to the downside. it will be hard for them to pass on these costs margins got whacked. i don't think this is a one quarter phenomenon if you are thinking of buying this, i would say think again, and give this at least a couple days if not more >> coming up, ulta shares dropping but one of our traders saying the move was overdone. is the worst over for this beaten down trade? all of that and more when "fast money" returns thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. (vo) this is a place for ambition. don't thank them too soon. a forge of progress. a unicorn in training. a corner to build a legacy.
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welcome back to "fast money. a buzz kiln the beauty aisle ulta dropping. handing in its worst day since last year. but karen, you bought some more? >> i did it was down four or five bucks the stock, if you look where it
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was september 30th was right around here so it had a big run-up going into it the investor day should have been called lowering the bar because that's what they did they talked about sales growth which was a little disappointing and margins singing 13 to 14%. i think that run-up had people thinking they would make mid teens. but i thought they were sandbagging. this is a new-ish ceo. we talk about how they kitchen sink the first quarter took three or four months but i felt like it was sandbagging i bought a little bit of stock i should have waited three days. i think we will see analysts lower their targets, but i like it i will try to buy more and be a
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check out our chart of the day. you are taking a look at the china ticker kweb. it is steadily going higher after a summer selldown. alibaba and jd.com all up. tim, do you think the worst could be over for the trade? >> you need some levels before these levels to say you have broken the down trend on alibaba. probably 186 which is the 100 day. i have seen some downgrade their targets on alibaba, but that is not the story. what's interesting about the kweb, arguably as an on line gamer and company that not only creates computer games, but is
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in the eye of the storm. this has broken the down trend it tells you a change in character. we have never questioned the importance of these companies globally, certainly at home. some of them are being given more grown lights. jd over baba because they are not as big of a megathreat >> i hate to use the term spring loaded because it is ready to be fired upon me, but i think earnings tomorrow looks interesting. i think they took too much out of it too fast i think all the china news is in that stock plus some i think you could see las vegas sandy rally on earnings. we asked 20 top strategists how they are investing in that
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box here on cnbc time for the final trade tim? >> i think the story around airlines is very interesting some of these stories that united gave us today in terms of seeing international, but delta is the highest volatility name hasn't broken the downtrend. take a look. >> karen >> on the anniversary of the 1987 crash, my final trade was an actual trade which i usually have investments that was facebook on the whistleblower. i bought stock to trade on the bad news and sold it today >> what was the '87 crash versus the '89 crash. we will take it offline. we will do it another time
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i agree with guy i don't think netflix is something to buy right here. >> guy >> very funny. ha, ha you may want to mention that there are my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to make you some money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. we know that inflation is raging we hear it from so many

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