tv Closing Bell CNBC October 12, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
commission free trading. maybe some of the stats get changed because it used to be that friction costs with trading more often tend to erode profits over time. >> maybe we'll find out next time thank you very much. thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. ♪ hello and welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here at the stock exchange broader averages holding steady. banks kick off tomorrow morning. >> can't wait. i'm wilfred frost. nike one of the big winners in the dow after goldman sachs initiated the stock with a buy target and 172 target price. weighing on the dow is intel chipmakers hit after a new report of prices for the memory chips could decline next year and the macro fund chairs saying
that the fed is still on track to begin tapering this year. >> more fed speak on this show we talk to st. louis fed president james bullard. he'll weigh in on the state of the economy and the factor that is pose a risk to the economic growth plus curevac shelving the covid-19 vaccine candidate hurting the stock. >> let's focus on the big stories of today mike santoli is tracking the action and meg tirrell watching the fda. mo broader markets? >> ugly on the index level if you count the overnight sessions it is jumpy within a range. a decent half percent selloff. fully recovered by the morning and 2% above last week's intraday low 4% below the highs there is this short term down
trend with the rally fizzling out. that's something that has traders concerned and attempts at traction. that attempt at a low it is the style of a bottoming process that sometimes tacks effect. dialing back to last october it was a deeper pullback and did look like? if you look it is really the bigger stocks and that have been weighing on things the average stock in the market slightly outperforming the s&p 500. this is the yps. yet it spy backwards. s&p 500 stocks but weighted in reverse order so the smallest are weighted the largest the prices do reflect that upside down waiting and actually pretty good performance since the september 2 high in the s&p 500.
outperformed the nasdaq 100. mega cap growth stocks with a big payback phase starting in september. some can look and say the average stock is doing decently and perhaps the reverse of the problems with the high take a look at five-year expected inflation we have the cpi data release tomorrow morning saturated by the inflation story. labor tightness. here's where we are. this is the market's implied forecast based on treasury pricing of five-year forward cpi. it is not that far above where we were a little over ten years ago in early 2011. oil prices a good deal higher back then and this phase right here is when the fed considered inflation too low. you weren't able to get above the target this is maybe the high end of the comfortable range. it is not exactly run away panic
on the inflation front but edging to concern. higher oil prices feeds directly into cpi and giving a lift to the inflation expectations as well. >> as you said idling today and yesterday unsurprising that cpi is tomorrow and earnings the market is waiting there. one thing that's moved meanfully today is the short end of the yield curve and reacting what we discussed yesterday the similar move the day before in european union. >> mid-por basis points and within the two-year window which is the look ahead for the security you have rate hikes according to the market's best guess or a possibility of a couple of rate hikes and close to the point the tightness of the labor market evident in the jolt numbers ubds scores the
possibility that we're closer to the fed's full employment type targets. that seems to be driving the action there. >> how about the move in the dollar another move higher. telling the same kind of story thank you. moderna is calling for the fda to authorize its covid-19 booster for adults and immu no compromised people meg tirrell with the latest of the decisions and nondecisions. >> yeah. it is a birg week for boosters at the fda advisory committee meeting thursday and friday to discuss the applications for moderna and johnson & johnson and today we got the documents ahead of the meetings from the companies and fda weighing in on moderna's application and as you said both companies applied for a booster for people 18 and over but in moderna's documents today they nor rowed the application to ask for what we saw pfizer get 65 plus and people at high risk
with either the underlying health conditions or exposure through the career setting to covid-19 and so moderna and the application it is asking for a half dose booster laying out the case for that today showing that the and bodies boosted by 15 fold with a half dose. they also have lower reactivegenicity and increases world wide supply. the fda not giving a strong opinion about the booster application in its documents coming out this morning. johnson & johnson also posting itsd materials today ahead of the friday meeting and showing with second dose two months out as we saw that ib creases efficacy to 94% but at 6 months it can increase the and bodies further so saying whether you give a boost to j&j two or six
moths could be an individual risk factors the fda on moderna's documents pointing out that as for pfizer the data indicates the vaccines afford protection against severe disease and death in the united states this is the question and of course we saw them authorize the pfizer vaccine but for a narrower group than pfizer asked for. for moderna there's less evidence that the protection wanes over time so we have to see how the advisers weigh the need for a booster and how the agency overall looks at it but the agency is sticking with the statement of strong protection against severe disease from all the vaccines. >> strange the fda staff didn't recommend it and passing along the information. what is the argument against boosters why wouldn't they give it the go ahead if there's evidence showing that the immunity wanes? >> yeah. so that's the question what we saw for pfizer is that
there was a bigger waning in the protection against any kind of covid than you see for moderna there isn't as much data showing that for moderna so you might just see a similar recommendation for the moderna vaccine itself reasons not to people point out perhaps some people don't need a booster shot and you could raise some people's rare risk for my owe carditis and the global equity concerns and moderna said it applied for a half dose and open up supply. >> thank you so much much appreciated. next, a guest to join us to discuss the new top three picks. they have changed since last week he'll explain how and why. you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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around that $55,000 level. that can be a drag on coinbase separately the company did say it was launching its own platform for nfts and didn't affect the stock today and shares are still up about 4% for the week and pretty much plat for the year back to you. >> thank you so much. in the wake of a cnbc investigation into stolen cryptocurrency one trading platform boosted the customer service and many say it didn't go far enough. that story is in the next hour of the show. facebook shares down 16% since the high in september since the "the wall street journal" investigation and the testimony but evercore isi is calling it a top pick. mark mahaney is joining us did you watch "squid games"? i know we talked about it. have you seen it. >> i'm halfway through it.
it's a phenomenal global hit the stock had a 25% rally since last quarter so we think the risk/reward tilting favorably to facebook than netflix. we like netflix but not a top three pick. >> have you seen "secret city" on netflix a secret pick. >> no. >> he might be upgrading netflix again after watching it. >> talk to us about the facebook call because there's a feeling that this is different with the whistle-blower testimony and the fact that congress is understanding maybe what needs to be done or coming together with steps to regulation is that not going to hurt facebook >> it could. we have had three major crises for facebook cambridge politico, pullbacks and boycotts so the stock is shown resilience
with the three things that matters why users, advertisers and employees. whether that still all holds up in negative sentiment and negative news, whether that holds up, is hard to know. i think as the company shows the internal research i think the findings are more nuanced than the toxic headlines first indicated. i frankly think that research looking at the slides yourself you come away with the belief that the platforms are influential but not flat-out negative and there's positive elements to them we'll see if that plays out. if we were to see them disengage we would change it this is a highest investment 20% growth tons of cash good long term vision. execution track record and trading one turn above the trough multiple.
you can buy this 18 times earnings a discount to the market so i think the risk is priced in. >> what about the companies that you are worried about? we touched on amazon last week but peloton i see pops up in the list ahead of earnings season. >> one thing to watch out for and the numbers are fine for this quarter it's the expense guide for next year facebook is out of the norm in that in that next year forward expense growth foik. a smart thing. i think more companies should do that my guess is they'll forecast higher you could see a knock to earnings i think the market would buy a greater contraction than we have seen in the shares and would be a numbers risk and then peloton is a name where we're concerned with the new products rolled out at street gross margins and
earnings loss are going to be greater than what's in street numbers so that's something that keeps you on the sidelines near term and then long term questions on the stock we certainly think it's worth monitoring let me put it that way. >> already hit hard recent weeks. communication services as a group down 8 pat% from the highs i would think it's more favorable set-up overall normally they come into it at the highs. >> you're right. what's been the major deflator interest rates fundamentally 1.5% yields are pretty darn low but it is the rise that people have been concerned about. that's a tough call to make. there's factors do go into that. if you think there's an aggressive interest rate rise that limits but the market will move to the high ers quality
tech space and consumer internet is very clear three or four champions with high quality businesses that generate free cash flow. amazon, google and facebook. the extent to pull back from tech i think the first names to come back to would be those three. >> and then let's just revisit the number one pick is uber? >> yes it does. look the data's showing more people back in the offices like me for the second week and beginning to deck rating. i think you will be impressed. as business travel starts to pick back up i think we'll see uber rise and the december quarter is a strong quarter for ride sharinging and delivery business seems to be a rocket ship strong as it has been throughout the covid crisis so we have had peak driver subsidy and expense quarter. june quarter i really think the stock started
to break out two or three weeks ago. never perfect. but a chance to get in and i don't think it's 10% upside move >> is there any sign that the labor shortages that so many companies are dealing with but especially uber and lyft are easing now that now people have run out the unemployment benefits in early september? how's that issue going to resolve? i t i. >> playing out and probably helps. greater social confidence as covid hopefully continues to wa wane and delta i think the ceo of uber did disclose in that two or three weeks postlabor day they saw an increase in the driver supply so as that comes back and still dealing with high pricing for
uber and lyft the only positive or a positive is that it incentives drivers that you can make good money driving with uber or lyft the factors come together to help the fundamentals of the names. i think that irsssue is largelyn the rear-view mirror. >> can't mandate vaccines and maybe, i don't know, appealing for some keep your window open. thank you. >> thank you. take a look at the market. under pressure here. the dow's down about a quarter of 1%. 75 points. s&p 500 a mixed picture. down .2% strength in groups like real estate thanks to the casino names and communication services and health care are lagging why the imf lowering the global growth projection today. that report and find out the
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welcome back we have a market flash on avis christina has that for us. hi. >> hi. shares of avis budget notching another all-time high today up more than 7% near to the close the stock is on a tear throughout the pandemic as more travelers turn to auto rentals and demand has remained sky high as business travel credit back in with avis up more than 300% so far in 2021 we'll see how the company meets the demand as new vehicle demand is tight amid the chip shortage. sara, back over to you. >> thank you the global economy is losing some momentum. that's the latest from the imf which today cut the forecast for the world economy to grow 5.9% but still pretty sol jid the imf is warning of the threats.
supply chain shortages and bottlenecks and highlighting what it called the divergence of countries on the recovery. for the u.s. the imf cut groetd forecast a full percent taj point to 6% but still healthy. 2022 got a boost to 5.2% from 4.9% and there's news on the imf and the drama of the head of it. kristalina georgieva charged that she did -- they came out in support of her including the number one voter most importantly the united states of america. janet yellen had a call with her last night and she did back her and said the allegations raised legitimate issues and concerns and steps must be taken to
reinforce data integrity and credibility at the imf the job of the managing director is safe for now. and i think the question is whether the biden administration could get blowback for backing her especially in the attempt to be tough on china. the evidence ultimately according to the board members just wasn't fully there in that report that she really intervened enough in the time. a ceo of world bank. pushing for china to move up in the rankings just looking into it. >> the way they're operated you get the backing from the united states you are safe. >> it is all voting. u.s. has the most votes and the european countries follow the u.s. on this stuff. >> interesting stuff. james bull around will weigh in on the state of the economy and what's next for interest rates and curevac giving up on
cohen upgrading airbnb expecting alternative longing to be permanent and the street is underestimating the airbnb bookings growth specifically in 2024 signet announcing it's buying retailer diamond direct for $490 million to add to the bridal business and expected to close in fourth quarter of 2022. the ceo said it brings in a younger luxury oriented bridal shopper and is an entry point to building a lifetime customer relationship and raised the 2022 revenue guidance and said she doesn't expect any supply chain disruptions why they use air mostly instead of shipping and avoided the delays around the ports. by the way gina drosos will join us live to talk about that 3:00
p.m. this wedding boom if you haven't noticed is happening they expect it to last. >> jewelry i guess smaller and cheaper to ship or fly than big product deliveries. >> certainly part of it. >> unless it's masses of gold. not real lay signet product then. >> that's bars that would be special jewelry. >> but looking forward to that tomorrow. time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> hi. here's what's happening at this hour a wyoming corner said that gabby petito died by strangulation and it was a homicide. he says that she died about three to four weeks before her body was found. north korean leader making a show of missiles and a first exhibition since kim took power. a u.s. marine f-35b fighter
jet landing on a japanese naval ship for the first time. it is being converted. in colorado wildlife officials removed a car tire from around an elk's neck. they were tracking it for more than two years and finally this weekend they got close enough to tranquilize the bull elk and had to cut off the horns because they didn't know if they could saw through the steel belted tire but they believe that the elk is now 35 pounds lighter >> that's a load off. >> wow. >> 575 pounds there but still. >> quite a procedure. >> look at the pictures. rahel, thank you. drugmaker curevac say it will stop working on the covid-19 vaccine candidate and we'll talk to the ceo about that
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welcome back shares of curevac lower today after announcing it will shelve the covid-19 vaccine and now will create shots to fight the virus. the trial showed a rate of 48% across all the age groups. since then the stock fallen around 40% joining us now a "closing bell" exclusive is curevac ceo franz hans thank you for joining us today i guess other rival companies got there first with a slightly
better product is that fair >> that's fair we have seen in our vaccine product developing since beginning of last year we have in the group between 18 and 56-year-old populations of good protection against other variants but in the totally elderly group the performance not as good as other approved vaccines you are right. >> as second part of the announcement and going to invest in mrna technology tell us how optimistic you are about the technology you have. >> first to start with the first product candidate we had so we have for submission and will not get an approval for this year for the special age group and see that potent vaccine so the
later it gets the less demand there is towards 2022 for a vaccine in a pandemic setting so what we have been doing in parallel is especially with the partner to develop a second generation vaccine with different properties with regard to the protection and also on other properties to build on vaccines and have variants included in a same dose with different varntd and combination with the flu vaccine this is what we are doing and with the closer we are getting into 2022 with first vaccine approval which would be outstanding the closer we are getting to good data with the second generation vaccine and driving the decision. >> what is the market for that look like? who else is doing this how does it look to you at this point in the pandemic for those second generation vaccines >> we see the pandemic has been
changing and thanks that we have got the vaccines or the world would be in a different shape but the pandemic vaccines are different to the second generation vaccines which need to come there because there are different variants of the covid virus emerging and then certainly not that much going into primal vaccinated people because they are vaccinated and going with a second generation to keep up with different variants and also with the longer longevity of the protection and with different kind of strains and vaccines and also working on the stable of the vaccines out there which is then going from a pandemic most probably into an amend and be prepared to combine it with the flu shot. >> when you look back in years
to come and how things played out in terms of treatments and vaccinations for covid-19, do you think people will assess it's easier for european drugmakers to get approved where they're based and u.s. in the u.s. or is it down to the data and yours wasn't as good as moderna's or pfizer's? >> it's all about data i think it's not depending on the region whether you are in the u.s. or in europe. looking back to the time when we all started with this endeavor and you don't know what the data are coming and it is a pandemic and a year ago it was even approved it was going without concession to go for pretty good vaccines which we have today and therefore driven by data and
safety and tollerability. >> why do you think you didn't get the same efficacy numbers? what did you learn from it >> it tells us that the platform is definitely workinging bah we have been seeing with the vaccine which is as the others optimized for the wuhan strain and protecting against the different variants coming in, especially in the region where we want to have protection against severe disease and hospitalization and especially death and then you saw pretty good vaccines out there and depending on the dose to get the antibody protection and to work on the modality just it's not as potent as with others and this is the basis for the lessons learned in the last 15 to 18 month to do better and we need
better vaccine as well as the virus is changing and the landscape is changing with the vacced people. some unvaccinated people there to work on the stability to get improved vaccines out there with combination of other vaccines and not to work on the platform to be prepared for the next pandemic. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you very much for having me. up next micron sells out and a firm is bullish on the american online gaming industry. those stories and many more when mut lt the "market zone. 17inesefof the session (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to
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we've got less than 14 moneys to go in the trading day and now in the "closing bell" "market zone." commercial free coverage of the action going into the close. mike santoli here to break down the trading day and joe taranova back with us stocks at session lows on track now far three-day losing streak. here we go again what a downer the final hour has been in the last few weeks really now. >> yes. >> is it us? >> since beginning of september. this is the ninth out of 11 a negative final hour of trading it is characteristic of down
trends in a short term slide here it is the opposite of when in august above all the moving averages and flowing into the market and a boost at the end of the day. we are also i think, you know, very much migrating in this narrow range i mentioned overnight the s&p 500 futures down half a percent. revisiting where we were right there. 4280 is how we traded as a low the point is traditionally late day trading buying or selling is considered to be smarter, more professional money whether that's true or not is not necessarily true and the way you had the interpretation. >> joe you wrote today to us the most crucial earnings season since october 2018 da da da tell us why. >> i think to michael's point
the market is in a tenuous position thinking back to october of 2018 it was all about the tariffs and what impact the higher costs would be on margins. we heard at the time ppg industries, caterpill lash guiding significantly lower and in a similar position here in october of 2021 where we're going to have to hear from companies what the guidance is going to be. certainly relating to higher input costs. you have wage pressure, higher oil pricing, higher commodity cost and a slowdown in chinese economic growth so a tenuous market that's now following with needing some answers on the earnings front toward the impact of the inputt costs are going to be and yes this is the most critical earnings season in three years because it is going
to dictate the direction of the s&p for the remainder of the year. >> shares of - >> didn't say it like you did. >> teeing it up for more drama, joe. i was a little disappointed. >> wow, okay. >> you have 15 or 20 minutes to make it up so we look forward to the next response. southwest airlines under pressure this week after cancelations caused by severe weather and staffing issues according to the airline. gary kelly said there's hopes that the schedule gets back on track. >> we have moderated the flight schedule and accelerated the hiring plans so there are definitely steps under way to mitigate the issue we were thinly staffed coming into the weekend and certainly didn't help trying to recover. >> coming to president biden's vaccine mandate here's what he had to say on that.
>> we're encouraging them. we're offering the equivalent of two day's pay to turn in the vaccination card that compensates them for the time it takes and any aftereffects from a vaccine. so it's an encouragement and not any kind of a stick, if you will. >> southwest declining over the past couple days and the sector is weak over a couple of weeks. >> southwest under performed and the point is made everywhere with an economy with a huge comeback in demand that's colliding with constrained labor supply and the efforts the protect margins and tried to run lean and challenging just in time inventories and very tight yieldmanagement on flights and things like that friction related to those things but yeah it is not as if -- southwest is
down about 4% this week or something like that. punished a little bit there and the group is mostly trading based off the macrostuff and travel demands and costs. >> the airline group is coming back a little bit. what are you doing with the stocks, joe? >> these stocks have been in a down trend since march until you tell me that the business traveler will return the only airline i'm interested in is alaska air that business traveler is so critical to reverse downward momentum that the airlines have been suffering through. >> jim cramer had stock goals and to learn about the picks sign up at cnbc.com/investingclub or point the phone at the qr code.
>> we have a news alert on the e cigarette industry frank? >> hey there the fda authorized three e-cigarettes made by a product made by the rj reynolds company and british american company to stay on the market they had a decline for applications to keep them on the market british american tobacco and subsidiary and the product three with just tobacco flavor allowed to stay on the market by the fda. right now we see british american tobacco stock down and altria up about a half a percent. joule is leading in the u.s. with 41% of market share the second leading e-cigarette in the u.s. a muted response from stocks. they have skin in the game with the fda authorizations expected
to come in the coming days but again british american tobacco and the e-cigarette products receiving authorization to be on the market and be sold in stores and receiving for jewel authorization. >> thank you session lows dow down about 162 points. a trio of big calls on casino operators. contessa brewer with the details. >> yeah. sara, look at the huge moves of mgm after a big upgrade of credit suisse doubling the price target to $68. it is first in the u.s. markets where it operates. challenging for the number one market position nationwide the clear leader in i-gaming and would not comment on the $20 billion bid from draftkings.
roth capital partner with a sell rating says it's 25% market share is unsustainable in the face of competitors and draftkings up on the day roth says buy pen with $107 with the technology offerings and its potential to cross sell the online offerings to the 20 million retail customers pen gaming up 3% on the day. wilf >> thank you so much for that. we'll rush through the stories and maybe discuss that in a moment micron shares under pressure josh >> it is a rough day for micron. check out that stock down today. it is down about 30% from the april high one of the worst performers in the smh this year. if it declines in october it would be the longest monthly losing streak since 2016
as for micron specifically there's different notes out today including concerns of oversupply of d-ram chips next year he is on the sidelines until he sees the end of price declines back to you. >> josh, thank you for that. joe, talk us through the views on the name and the sub sector. >> let's talk about the semi industry so critical to a form of economic recovery global smh is challenging the 200 day moving average once again. the market in a tenuous position semis are a great example but not all are the same yes today you have micron down and texas instruments down and intel down and that's all about pricing and the concentrated nature of their business i'm going towards nvidia, amd
and lam research these are diversified names with exposure to graphics, to software i think that's going to be needed as we kind of navigate through the supply demand imbalance here >> just on the technicals matt maley said the fact that micron couldn't hold the august low isn't good for the stock or the group and watching texas instruments. didn't break through the support on 108 and not a good day. >> micron, it is given up the surge it got into last year and goes back into the high 50s if you look back beyond that, 58 in that area, is where you had peaked out before the big ramp and a logical place to look and it is interesting. there are these indications out there that customers double and triple ordering. that is at least fueling some fears about the possibility that
shortage turns into glut more quickly than the -- a semi issue or a leadership for the industry issue? >> it is a semi issue and a hindrance to the overall market. you like to see them outperform and emblem atting of a leadership transition mostly going to smaller sectors of the s&p. >> off the session lows down 118 on the dow and still attempted to rally and didn't stick. >> low conviction on either side you have more shares of stocks advancing than declining names. take a longer term view of the sox. it will tell you exactly where we sit there going back to
basically the march highs is what we're challenging 'below there now and see down for the day. doesn't look as if it's a lost cause and struggled for upside the volatility index is sticky here just below 20 got the cpi number tomorrow. sort of indecisive. we don't have that spike in hedging and fear that would normally drive it to a new high. the new high was 28. >> less than a minute to go before the close look at the market the dow down 91. coming back here in the final minutes of trade but a down day for the -- down hour am general a weight on the dow with caterpillar and boeing. j&j. salesforce is the best in the dow.
s&p 500 down .2% real estate, consumer discretionary those are the winning groups today communication services and health care are the losers nasdaq got more than a .1% russell 2000 positive up .6% down for the week about a percent on the down. s&p 500 almost a percent but did close off the lows nasdaq sharply lower welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost with sara eisen and mike santoli we ended down a quarter of a percent on the s&p little bit more than that for the dow and less than that for the nasdaq having selling in that final half an hour of trade as you can see but then also bounced in the final five or ten minutes. declines are muted half the sector higher, half
lower. real estate the best coming up james bullard on the time line for tapering and how inflation fears could impact the economy. joe terra nova is with us and victoria green joins the conversation mike, i guess we mentioned it earlier. waiting for cpi and earnings season but a nice bounce having that intraday selloff. >> yeah. the market is really just -- it is biding the time to walk back and forth along the same patch of ground. i don't think today was much more than just a noisy session still some signs that the market is attempting to find traction in the average stock not the indexes. alphabet was down today. a weight on the index and yet the russell 2000 was up on the day. so that's been a theme to pull out and say that we have this
kind of messy, somewhat unfortunate certain rotation to cyclical stocks going on consumer discretionary did well today i think it's plausible that the market found a low last week i don't think it's necessarily the bet you would put everything on to say we won't actually go lower. we are hampered technically right now. the options flows and the hedges flows in the wrong direction with the pull back level for the s&p. that's the opposing currents to trapped in right now. >> victoria, what are you telling the private wealth management clients whether to take on risk buying stocks in this kind of environment which is really soft in the last few weeks? >> we are treading water until the fed meeting on the third opec on the fourth we are still pretty bullish on
stocks median target is 4600. 5% from here we look at buyers on dips. we haven't seen a lot of volatility as much as we have seen gyrations and going nowhere fast until the fed comes out or clarification from washington on debt ceiling and spending and right now you are in a holding pattern. i think bear risk on the bond side this is shades of 2013 taper tantrum. government shutdown. you remember sequestration and that fun getting to that again 2013 was positive for stocks but difficult for bonds as rates came up so we're advising to shore up the fixed income. under the duration cash is not terrible and need to fight off inflation with stocks to do that. >> joe, we didn't dive into the casinos. what is the preference
would you dip into the macau names that pulled back so much >> a clear distinction in performance year to date four names to talk about to play the macau trade go to wynn, las vegas sands. i would trade wynn las vegas sands is abandoning the city that has the name sake so they're moving away two names that worked are caesar's and mgm caesar's with little exposure to macau and mgm investing in las vegas with the deal to take over operations of the cosmopolitan hotel. >> also didn't mention nike, mike, initiated at goldman today on the idea it's oversold. the factors are temporary.
kate mcshane says to buy i think at citi. goldman now. >> it's an opportunistic call to say buy a best in class name when probably there's been outsized focus on the challenges it makes sense i still think it's obviously got this very much a premium valuation. over 40 times earnings i think it makes sense not to me clear to race back to the highs right away. >> one sort of best in class name to call is disney. talk us through that call. >> i didn't catch that last part you broke up a little bit. >> talk us through disney. >> yeah. i do love the house of mouse i apologize on that. i do like disney i think they'll win the streaming wars household with 40, $50 on
streaming. looking harder with recreating cable with the different services between paramount plus or netflix and then you got hulu and disney their growth is just tremendous on subscriber growth and great reopening play with the parks and the cruise lines i think they're a very goody verse if ied stock and the streaming and the content that they have. what they have with marvel and "star wars" and lined up for 2022 and pushing into india and latin america is moving slower fourth quarter might not be the 10 million plus growth we were looking for but on track for the 260 million by 2024 and netflix range and i think people take a hard look at the streaming packages and make sure that they may cut some netflix $15. hbo max $15. you can get disney plus at $8 or with hulu and espn plus for 15
and i think people budget better we were all rushed into streaming so fast and netflix was there first and there's competition and they're attractive to consumers and as well as just hard to not want to buy everything marvel. right? >> disney is down 4.5% for the year and not had a good month down 6% over the last month. isn't the concern now that the big subscriber gains are slowing? >> a little bit but i think they pick it up on the park side. if you see streaming flow less saturation you can see the growth on the parks and cruises. they didn't sit idly by. they have great innovations to improve the user experience and costing more for vip experience and just pay for it. the stock's not done anything but it's a very good -- down
with delta down and everybody put a brake on the reopening trade but i look at them and i think they have such a great brand reck okay in addition and win the super bowl and going to disney world as well as people rush back into cruises cruises haven't been talked about for a while and still in limbo and the cruise line can be very profitable again the parks turning a profit with continuing to have not the entire global system open so i think that they'll start to churn out money faster. >> joe, just want to pivot to what's coming in the week ahead. if cpi comes in not even hot but in line do you think we see a reaction both in yields and equities off that or do we still need to actually wait for the fed to respond and say yes we'll be tightening faster than people expected >> i don't know. i think that story is already priced into the market
i think the expectation with both equities and bonds underperforming and down for september is that, yes, we are tapering and then inflation is more than transitory at this point and looking forward in the next book or so it is about jpmorgan and goldman sachs, blackrock, hearing from the financial institutions how the businesses are performing, the guidance and another indicator to be important is the return of buybacks that's been missing here in the last two to three weeks and without that buyback ability to steady the market in a decline that's where you leave the market where it is now in a tenuous position the most tenuous position it's been in since october of 2018. >> ta da da! we have a market flash now on apple. >> i needed some drums. >> we have news dropping on
apple. just bloomberg reporting that apple is poised to slash iphone production goal cdue to the chi inventory. apple expects 10 million fewer iphones than planned i did catch up with long time apple watcher gene munster saying he is not surprised by the headline and flagged by apple as a potential challenge 10 million i didn't see the time frame of that and gene's math says 10 million is probably says 5 to most 10% impact to iphone revenue and the simply delays demand and does not destroy it. >> the chip crunch comes to apple. when would this affect big companies like an apple which has so far - >> there was a note yesterday i believe out of barclays and in exhausting detail and a skeptical take about whether
they could make the numbers and seems to fill in the blanks there. as much as everyone tries to find out the supply chain i have nevada seen how it helps you in and out of the stock in a smart way. the market sorts it out before we get the news. >> does this headline altder the view that inflation and supply chain issues are in share prices >> you own apple, right? >> i do own apple. when i say share price there's negative news that we already know right? we understand that but it just suspected -- how much further can we weaken off that news? we'll never reverse the negative that exists here regarding the supply chain challenges and sp specific to apple, no. i look and say to myself we have a bigger problem here for a name line broad come or texas
instrument that are getting the chips to apple and obviously they have an inability to get them to apple. i wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken through that price target tomorrow. >> joe, victoria, thank you both. up next on the show we'll keep talking inflation st. louis fed president james kes ard on the outlook for rate hiand for the economy. we'll be right back. thanks for coming.
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taper at the next meeting in november an announcement, vote and ready to scale back the stimulus in your mind? >> i'd support starting the taper in november. as you know, i have been advocating trying to get finished with the taper process even by the end of the first quarter next year because i want to be in position to react to possible upside risk to inflation next year as we try to move out of this pandemic. >> what happens if growth slows and the market continues to weaken here? will that change your view on how to fast to taper and lift toward rate hikes? >> you know, third quarter growth does -- has been marked down as you know following everybody i think including the fed. including me but i've just pushed out the growth into the fourth quarter and the first half of next year
so i think that the total amount of growth that we'll see will not be diminished. there's demand out there there's plenty of reopening still has to occur there's plenty of fiscal support for the economy and monetary support so i really think we are still in great shape i think the pandemic will come under better and better control. you have technology going on the pandemic front pills are on the horizon booster shots. shots for kids all kinds of stuff happening so i think we are still in great shape economy wise even though we have a setback from the delta variant in the third quarter. >> that said are you fearful in any way that the inflation picture will force your hand before perhaps the jobs picture on its own would warrant tightening >> yeah.
i don't know on jobs unemployment rate 4.8% way more job openings than the number of unemployed on that dimension with a hot job market i think by the time we get to next spring you could see a three handle on the unemployment rate that would be back to the pre-pandemic level so i think we are in pretty good shape on la labor markets. they'll continue to improve through the next six to nine months as we taper on inflation i think the story that inflation will come down naturally is reasonable one but i only want to put 50% probability on that scenario and some on a scenario where inflation stays high or even goes higher in the months ahead and that's the risk i want to be
in position to be able to handle at the end of the taper. >> you made a splash on cnbc a few months ago after a fed meeting and started to talk about 2022 rate hikes after powell was super dovish talking about transitory inflation has the core of the fed moved to your view of a rate hike in the coming year? >> i think that if you look at the median of the summary of economic projections they have been more participants moving into 2022 as a possible date of liftoff. i would say that and the chair said that we do want to keep the idea of the end of the taper separate and tapering generally speaking separate from the date of liftoff which is a separate decision for the committee and there's no reason for us to commit one way or the other at
the point but want to be in position if we have to move sooner that we are able to do so next year in the spring or summer if we had to do so. >> we saw the short end of the yield curve move higher today in reaction to the same thing in europe yesterday whilst u.s. bond markets were closed when you see the moves does it at the margin help the u.s.'s cause in the sense that there's tightening going on without you having to hike rates or is the opposite true that if central banks get going before you it forces your hand >> i don't know if there's any sort of direct feedback there. i think the bank of england has to handle their situation. they're a more open economy. probably got other concerns other than the ones we have
here inflation tends to be higher in the u.s. here than other places in the world and i think part of that is that the fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has been so aggressive in the u.s. and so that's probably feeding it one thing i would say a lot of pe people say, inflation is up because that's a supply shock but a supply shock alone cannot cause inflation but a supply shock accommodated by easy monetary policy. it is the two things together that lead to the inflation you can't get inflation just by having a price go up but all the prices go up in tandem and that only comes about when the monetary policy isn't accommodative in response to a supply shock. >> what about stagflation? we see more mention in the wall street notes selloff lately is blamed on this
idea of slower economic growth at the same too many of persistently high inflation which is a bad recipe and reminds us of the a e 70s. is that a concern for you? >> yeah. i'm not quite sure people debating this but in the '70s you had outright recessions withinflation going up i don't think we're going to get into that situation. i think the probability of recession is exceptionally low at this point. at the outset i said we're in great shape for growth going forward but the third quarter doesn't look -- looks like it's revised down quite a bit but i think slowing growth and higher inflation while growth was 6% plus in the first half of the year you probably expect something less than that but i'm
not sure i call that stagflation but an oversells of the term stagflation. >> we had senator warren on the show last week and part of the discussion is exploring whyshe felt jay powell was a dangerous man and as you know part of the comment stemmed from the fact that regulation on the banking sector is eased too significantly. what is your response whether you hear politicians use the terms toward someone you know very well? >> we are used to it we have tough skin here. we always get criticized from all sides. i take that as a sign we are doing something right if we are criticized from many different angles i think as far as the regulatory situation, the big picture is that dodd/frank was passed
there was some talk at some point about repealing d dodd/frank it is the law of the land now and both authors and leaders on that bill chris dodd and barney frac saying it's intact and i think we are in as good of shape as we can be given the political process to get good prothe oex for thebanking system and trie to implement that as best we can. >> he especially gotten it from both sides trump and now warren finally this whole controversy over stock trading has added a new element and a new dimension. i don't think that you have been as actively trading as the peers on the federal reserve but do you think you should be able to trade stocks as you have >> yeah. the way i see this is that congress sets the standard
they're the top policymaking organization they're deciding on tax policy, regulatory policy. all kinds of things so they set the ethic standards and then spreads out to the agencies and we have to certainly follow that if congress wants to raise that standard i think that's definitely their prerogative as the elected body and then all the agencies would have to follow through that's a political question for the congress but if they do that then members and staff live with it and whatever standards they set. as far as i know we have met the congressional standards so far but we are looking into it and chair powell has promised extensive review of the situation. >> james bullard, always good to talk to you. thank you for joining us on
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as investing in cryptocurrency skyrocketed so have major problems in keeping the investments safe customers of coinbase are angry with the company's customer support which is supposed to provide help ea eamon jaefrs has an investigation. >> i was panicked. >> reporter: eric and molly richard sorn said they saved nearly $1.1 million of cryptocurrency in a coinbase account and eric got an alert on the phone saying someone logged on to their account. eric clicked on the text, logged and then said that the two factor awe authentic kaegs for security settings is changed. >> he was like in a state of shock. i tried to stay calm and looked up coinbase online trying to
figure out how to get a hold of customer service re. >> reporter: they got nowhere trying to get immediate help because the company didn't offer any kind of live phone support email is the only option. >> within the 20 minutes we sent the email somebody had done 110 didn't transactions send issing out about 21 bitcoin. >> reporter: the hackers stole some $700,000 of the couple's saverings. they're not the only one cnbc reported in august cryptocurrency holders across the country have been victimized by hackers who drain their accounts and then can't get anyone on the phone to resolve the issue coinbase said in august it set up a phone number for customers to call if the account is taken over and doesn't seem to be fixing the problem customers told us the live support is useless, a joke and it was only for accounts
actively locked. we wanted to see what would happen when they called the new line. >> i'll call and see if i can get the account finally unlocked and maybe should i ask to give me my money back. >> reporter: an agent answers. >> i was locked out of the account two months ago and somebody stole 21 bitcoin. >> reporter: the agent said he doesn't have access to the case file saying hernd respond to a coinbase email he responded to a spokesperson says rerecognize the challenges some customers experience improving the experience is a top priority eric says the big regret is not doing more to safeguard the bitcoin and chainlink before the theft he thinks because that text alert is liking a phishing attack to steal the information and an option he considered is a
device used for cold storage. >> i'm beating myself up every day because i have voices in my head putt it on cold storage and just didn't. >> reporter: nicole says cold storage is virtually hack proof. you can get a private key like a password to buy and sell crypto and store it offline. >> when you get the funds in cold storage you own the funds you have okay is easy to them. they're offline away from hackers. >> reporter: the problem with that solution is owners can lose the passwords or something can go wrong with the device itself. soon after our interview coinbase restored access to the account and received a credit from coinbase but nowhere near what they lost gist $500 worth of bitcoin. >> felt like they kicked sand in my face and made me think is there anyone looking at this at
coinbase >> coinbase told them that it won't refund the savings because the company is not responsible for the hack customers filed more than 12,000 complaints against the company since 2016 meanwhile an additional 1500 complaints filed since the story first aired in august. most of those over customer service. back to you guys. >> eamon, thank you. still ahead, why ceos need to choose different language when they choose vaccine mandates new poll results from frank when we come back since our beginning, barista: - there he is! narrator: - we've looked to inspire and nurture each other, by asking what's possible? what's possible when we connect? office worker: - coffee's here! narrator: - what's possible when we come together. female 1: - kayla? female 2: - oh. is it ok to hug? narrator: - when we open our hearts. female 2: - this is like the best date i've ever been on. narrator: - when we grow together. narrator: - after 50 years,
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time now for a cnbc news update with shepard smith. >> hi. from the news on cnbc, now gabby petito was strangled to death. that grim conclusion from a coroner in wyoming today he put the time of death three to four weeks prior to the body being discovered september 19 in a remote area. the coroner would not say much
about the autopsy or the case citing laws what he can release. her boyfriend brian laundrie still unaccounted for and listed as a person of interest. the house is in session at this hour debating the short term debt limit increased. if the bill passes it goes to the president and congress has until december to find a long term solution now the reverse on advice older adults that don't have heart disease should not take low dose aspirin as a measure against heart attack and stroke saying bleeding risks outweigh the benefits and said regardless of age patients should talk to doctors before starting or stopping a regimen or anything else. tonight rapid at-home covid
tests widely available in other countries and free that is not true in the united states what's the hold-up meg tirrell has the answers 7:00 eastern cnbc wilfred frost, back to you. >> shep, thank you so much. up next, pollster and communication analyst frank luntz will join us that's next. you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
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texas governor abbott pushing back on the biden administration's federal covid vaccine mandate banning all entities in the state including private businesses to implement vaccine requirements on employees and customers saying the vaccine is safe, effective and the best defense but should be voluntary and never forced. however the latest survey shows a majority of americans back biden's vaccine requirement for businesses of those polled 39% say they strongly support the order and 17% said they somewhat support the analyst. let's bring in frank luntz why don't companies and politicians you listen to you and call it vaccine protocols and not brand it a mandate and then not have this political
football >> don't give me credit. the credit is to the foundation because they're the only people that focus on language and messaging and what's clear and key how essential it is to put aside the politics and the profit and focus on what keeps people safe and healthy. and the great challenge that we learned in the survey conducted two weeks ago is that social media's playing a really negative role in all of this the people not vaccinated yet are getting too much of their information from social media and that is clouding their judgment and frankly i'm frightened about it. the texas governor made the right decision among republicans. skeptical of government and pharmaceutical companies and the virus itself but among the population overall it is overwhelming i give president biden credit
that he has chosen to focus on this to keep people safe, healthy and the polling foundation finds that the key language in all of this is about personal responsibility and frankly safety and it is about health. >> sir, if you are a ceo of a small or large business that operates now in the state of texas what do you do you are caught between the governor's mandate and the federal guidelines. >> even looking at my own language here and i'll give you the words that work as a kroechl. we respect the choices our penal make make it personal and respect their choices. but it is our responsibility to keep everyone in our community safe and healthy and that is our first priority so in the end you're saying to people they have a choice but what the biden administration has done which is you can choose not to get vaccinated but then you have to be tested because in
the end two thirds of americans are vaccinated adult americans. two thirds have made that decision and the one third should not jeopardize the health and safety of two thirds and one more on language is ceos need to demonstrate they will be to the people, the customers and the communities we serve because in the end a business is about service to the people and important to hit all three of those constituencies customers, employees and the people that we serb. those are the two most important phrases and will communicate respect for everyone in the workforce, respect the choice but in the end, in the end it is about safety and health. >> you mentioned texas governor abbott and sort of suggested and didn't state this but might have done -- taken the arctions in
part to appeal to the republicans in his state and not wildly different from the language saying that the covid-19 vaccine is safe, effective and the best defense against the vaccine but should remain voluntary and never forced if you say protocols versus mandates anyway we are very deep dive analyzing the kit that's not saying massively different things. >> you are correct but if you call it a mandate you lose half of the republicans which is losing 20% of the audience and republicans are less likely to be vaccinated than democrats that's first another example is vaccine passports. which both the left and the right don't want to do for different reasons. if you call it a verification the public would have said yes in this case words matter a lot. even if you call it government health versus public health.
these people who are speaking to us are experts in the health care area. if they represent the government they will not be believed because the government isn't believed but the public health experts are trusted. i say this every time on the show dr. fauci is bright, brilliant but he should stay off television because every time he goes on he politicizes the issue even if he doesn't mean to and makes its harder to get republicans and conservatives and trump voters vaccinated and that's the goal if dr. fauci truly was committed to doing what's best for the people of this country he would stay off television. >> that final message, frank, not saying to the right -- we love having dr. fauci on so otherwise - >> we get your point. >> otherwise loved it all and get the point. >> not about -- this is not about making a judgment call.
>> i know. i know. >> it's just that -- >> polarization. >> trying to get people vaccinated he's not the right spokesman. >> frank, good to see you. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. bank earnings kicking off tomorrow an analyst that sees value in one particular regional bank stock. that pick coming up. take a look at shares of qualcomm a pop after announcing a new buyback planyond ord fund, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.
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big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? some very sad news to report we have just learned that hasbro ceo brian golder in passed away at 58. company announced sunday he was taking medical leave after battling prostate cancer since 2014 he was a long time ceo and joined in 2000 he became ceo in 2008. chairman of the board in 2015. and was really considered a visionary in the industry melding this world of toys and entertainment. doing deals with the likes of disney to create the toys that he led a huge acquisition a few
years ago and part of the legacy remember the peppa pig to bring entertainment into the world of toymaking. the stock since 2008 is up more than 200%. now other companies an competitors have followed in those footsteps of capitalizing on the ip intellectual property that they have. other companiese followed in those footsteps of capitalizing on the intellectual property these companies have and expanding and growing the business very sad news. too young. our condolences are with the goldner family and the entire hasbro family. the ceo saying he was part of the heart and soul he passed at the age of 58 we will be right back.
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the main focus will be on net interest income. what's your outlook there. >> 100% right. net interest income is 60% of banks revenues we have had to absorb a full year of negative loan demands and interest rates it looks like 3 q will be the first positive quarter of loan growth since the pandemic hit. we are starting to see grown shoots, starting to see a little bit of a pickup in commercial borrowing, credit card borrowing. that probably makes the fore commentary better. but looking into 2022 it seems like we are starting to turn the corner and bounce off the
bottom >> the other story for banks for the last three or four quarters is each time wondering if the bomb and capital markets revenues can continue and it has, for more quarters than we would have expected. but is the time up >> some of the numbers have been gaudy. up 18% mna's up 30% you are spot on that it has been stronger for longer. 3q has been great. when you look into 2022, we have all been in this business long enough to know this is cyclical. we don't get a lot of lee time frankly the bank's crystal ball is so much better than ours. how do you think about compensation how are banks starting to set
their outlook and manage their business >> do you think capital return plans are a big swing factor this quarter or not really >> i think it's more about individual stocks, whether zions or wells fargos and big banks. it was every quarter you had to tell people what the buyback was. wells fargo, a huge debate how much they will return. but 3% of the quarter every single quarter, that starts to add up i think we are in a little bit of a steady state, but i think you have names like wells and synchrony where you start shrinking the credit cards
>> tell me about your top picks? >> we like capital one the challenge in this business is the market, anticipating that the old adage if you buy them one times or sell them two times. when you look, the average price is 2.00. after playing the rules of thumbs, you would say things are getting better but the value is not there like it used to be we think capital can make about eight times earnings it's pretty cheap -- or inexpensive on price of earnings this is a leading edge where we are starting to see loan growth reemerge one says consumers are called that for a reason, they love to
consume. we are seeing spend volume growth that is stronger with everything shifted online. it is structural higher than prepandemic. hopefully the bar is low for getting the valuation. >> brian, great to see you as always thanks for joining us. >> besides the big bang earnings we are going to get we are going to be watching cpi, consumer price index and we are expecting another number north of 5% weknow energy prices are risin and food strip those out, the core is still expected to rise 4% which is double the feds target. i go back to earlier in the conversation he is worried about inflation and not just from bottlenecks and supply chains but the feds accommodating policy has fed into it
he thinks the fed will have to move next year much. >> that's a bit of a judgment call i think even within the core it matters what components are flying because that will determine some of the market response remember when it was all used cars and things that seemed like they were completely about shortages and bottlenecks. we will see if that seems like more of a trend thing. i think the core is supposed to come in a little over 4%, still very high. the fed said they have already met the inflation target that's a checked off box and how they interpret that side of things flexibility to respond in case inflation sticks around. i think it's a growing sentiment, but maybe not the prevailing one >> they said they are not too
worried in the past two days but that outlook about the economy is something people always watch, particularly with the question marks >> right and obviously they know a lot about what is going on with the huge swath of corporate america. that would be reassuring if we got a little bit of that and maybe echos the consumer credit strength >> another down day, market down about 117 points on the dow. down a%. -- percent that does it for us. time for show show -- "fast money." >> tonight we are ready to report, earnings season taking off in a big way banks on deck. plus, just buy it. the big call on nike giving it a boost. whether you should bet on this