tv Squawk Box CNBC October 8, 2021 6:00am-9:00am EDT
musk making it official announcing that tesla's headquarters leaving california. it's friday, october 8, 2021 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. happy friday welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. andrew, welcome back we missed you. >> thank you very much joe didn't i mean, you didn't hear, joe didn't miss me that much but i'm glad you did. >> we missed you. >> i can't say it enough how much i missed him. i say it in an average way i need to be like flowing with welcome back there was no gift. okay monday >> you're mad that you didn't get an airport t-shirt gotcha
it is friday we're glad to have you back andrew. looking at the markets, mixed picture at least for this point. dow futures indicated up about 20 points. nasdaq down by 10 points, s&p down about 1 point they're waiting for the jobs report we'll get in about two and a half hours time. watching treasury yield, the ten year sitting at 1.594%, so the yield has picked up. probably worth pointing out that the equities market after the ups and downs this week, all three averages are higher for the week dow just about 2% from the all time high, s&p about 3% from its all time high, 1% for the week and the nasdaq is under 5% from its all time high up by about .6 for the week so you're looking at positive momentum once again, and that's
continued. energy prices higher this week as well we talked about the huge swings at the beginning of the week and talking about wti sitting at $79 a barrel right now wti is up about 3% for the week to date it's on pace for its seventh week in a row of gains that's why you see the steady climb higher natural gas is up by only about 1% it's up for about seven weeks in a row. we'll see what today starts with back over to you guys. let's start with the big news this morning, straight out of washington, the senate pat passing a short term increase to the debt limit e e ylan mui joins us with the latest. >> reporter: we are a step closer to avoiding a potentially catastrophic government default after the senate passed that short-term increase in the debt limit last night in the end republicans helped pave the way for the vote despite months of insisting the
democrats go it alone. 11 republicans sided with democrats to advance the bill but the final tally 50 democrats in this favor, 48 republicans against. chuck schumer accused the gop of playing a dangerous and risky game >> america's full faith and credit must never be used as a political bargaining chip. i hope my republican colleagues relent from trying to make it one when we revisit this issue soon >> reporter: now that did not go over well with the other side of the aisle or even with moderate democratic senator joe manchin who put his head in his hands during parts of that speech. that could be because democrats are going to need more help from republicans in just a few weeks. the bill only increases the debt limit by $480 billion, which treasury projects will last until about december 3rd that is also the same day that government funding runs out and the two parties will need to work together to prevent a
shutdown as well so andrew, we are just headed for another fiscal cliff in december back to you. >> do you have any expectation that it's any better by then that's the thing i can't figure out. how does this work -- >> reporter: no. >> -- how do they improve the situation? >> reporter: i'm not sure it improves anything. they're just trying to make it less bad right now there is some hope amongst democrats if they can unify the caucus and get the infrastructure and social spending packages passed by halloween, then they can turn their full attention to bipartisan negotiations with republicans. i think that's wildly optimistic given the level of rancor we saw even last night when they passed the debt limit bill. december 3rd as the deadline for raising the debt limit next, december 3rd is when the government is going to run out of those extraordinary measures.
so the debt limit will have to be raised well before december 3rd to avoid rattling markets. we just don't know what this time line is going to look like. i think this democrats are going to find themselves right back in the same position when they're trying to negotiate with republicans later on this year. >> we keep pointing out it's not an election year, andrew you weren't around but we have new jersey governor, and we have citorelli on to talk about challenging phil murphy. and the big ones in virginia mcauliffe and youngkin, it's almost a horse race at this point. but we'll know in november, get at least somewhat of a snapshot of maybe the mood in some states that are sort of -- you know, virginia has been blue, but, you know, if there was a red move
there, and there's some other ones so i think by december, you know, you may -- >> more pressure >> no. you just may know the mood of the country more there are some people that think the mood has soured in general mccauliffe said something weird about biden. he said he's not popular why is he not popular? he won virginia by a wide margin, did that slip? >> we'll see. >> this is interesting, too. i want to talk about this, tesla moving headquarters from california to texas. elon musk making the announcement yesterday during the shareholder meeting. he said the company still plans to increase production at its california facility. among the other headlines musk talked about the global chip shortage and its potential impact on sales growth >> basically if we can get the chips, we can do it. so hopefully this chip shortage
will alleviate soon. but i feel confident being able to maintain something like this, at least above 50% for quite a while. >> so what i was going to mention if you look behind the scenes, supposedly governor abbott called elon and they were talking and then abbott kind of maybe spoke out of turn or maybe elon didn't want him to but said another one of elon's reason was taxes, regulation, but also some of the social issues that happen in -- i don't think he's talking about the abortion one -- >> if not abortion, what is he talking about? >> but then elon musk said no, i don't get into politics at all so he kind of like pushed back on whether that was true. >> that would surprise me from elon i think the taxes and regulation would be the reason he'd do this he's been very vocal about that. >> he's tweeted things that sort of -- maybe he was kidding about
sleepy joe where was joe at the time, maybe he was asleep -- >> he's been very frustrated by the biden administration for two reasons. first of all -- >> not inviting them. >> yes, not inviting them with the electric vehicles and then the infrastructure bill will benefit other electric vehicle makers that use unions only. and that keeps tesla and toyota out. >> there's the slight from the biden administration is that issue. >> right. >> the social issues, i actually -- i think is wrong in as far as elon went on twitter a couple -- like a month or two ago to actually push back when abbott was -- remember, abbott was interviewed on tv about this where he tried to suggest that elon was in lock step with him and effectively on the --
frankly on the abortion issue. then you have elon try to say, maybe not, but i'm not going to get into this with everybody >> i think you don't necessarily need to embrace texas and what you would think of as social issues but you may have a problem with some of the west coast social issues. that may be just too far look at what portland, all the way down -- >> i think elon has been pretty vocal. remember during the pandemic he was frustrated they couldn't get people back to work in california because of the local laws housing prices. >> it's as whacky as you get-- >> he's been vocal in terms of the stuff he hates about california. >> it's as whacky asin san francisco as you get anywhere. although i think you're comfortable in austin. >> austin is a nice place. >> it's not like the rest of texas. >> it's not. >> a lot of places aren't like
the rest of texas if you look at houston, dallas. >> i know that all my exs live in texas. >> that's why you hang your hat in tennessee. >> right i don't have any exs. >> coming up we have a big day. it's jobs friday we'll talks labor shortages, return to the office and much more first as we head to a break, let's check out the biggest premarket winners and losers stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc girls... the chess club has gained an edge on our bake sales. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory.
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welcome back to "squawk box. futures have turned positive on the dow now, up about 38 points, a couple of good sessions yesterday and the day before and we'll look at crypto, which bitcoin moved through 55 pretty easily 55,000 now you can see it at 55,000 it was higher than that earlier. i meant to make a point. didn't we hit 1 ppt 6 on the ten year >> i think so. it's right at the number. >> that was the number >> yes that was the number from tepper, right? >> what month was that i tried to figure it out. >> a long time ago. >> was it april? or may >> maybe
>> so we -- it was just going to stay -- >> i would say april rather than may. >> i think it was april 9th, i seem to remember what is it now, is it october? >> yes it's almost -- it's october 8th. >> so that's like six months of just to get back to the top end of that range. so it did stabilize and actually the market has done pretty well. >> it has. >> there you can actually see it so here we are back to 1.6 >> now what? >> it's so fliaky when i hear, i could be anything. it comes out of the blue it could be any time too. >> it would be surprising if he didn't think rates were going to push through 1.6%, right that would be pretty shocking. >> how many times have we been surprised? >> we were surprised when he said it last time. maybe he can weigh in. give us guidance we are waiting on the september job report, due at
8:30 eastern time. joining us now to talk about the how the delta variant and vaccine mandates might affect the numbers is sadal neely and tom ghimable sadal, let's start with you, first. are we going to get a clean number here? is this the time kids went back to school in september and people said we're going back or is there something amiss >> i think the kids going back to school is going to make a difference but i think the delta variant is at play here. it creates the ongoing health fears and you have the ongoing great resignation, early retirements, inability to hire and retain that's going to affect a lot of people of course, you also have the shortage in terms of supply that then reflects the ability to hire the right people at the right time for organizations there's no leader that i've talked to in the last couple of
weeks who's not very concerned about the ability to hire and retain. >> you said this is the strongest job market you have seen in your entire career, right? >> yep >> what is it? is it a picture of an incredible demand for workers because everybody needs more workers to fill the demand for their product or is this a supply issue where you can't find enough people because there are still a lot of people staying home, who have to take care of kids, have elderly people they have to worry about? what do you think? >> i totally agree that going back to school is a huge plus for the jobs numbers however, what we're looking at right now is there's still a situation where if a kid comes down with covid, you talk about it all the time, your kids aren't vaccinated yet. if there's a scare of covid in the classroom or somebody comes down with it and your kid has to be home for two weeks then we have a situation where the parent has to be home. so we're not going to see the huge job number of parents
reentering the workforce yet my guess is we'll have around 350,000, which is a solid number but not what everybody gets all hot and bothered by. >> is it another month before we get that number, two months? vaccinations for kids are coming probably by the beginning of next month >> i think whether it's halloween, thanksgiving, christmas, we have to get the kids vaccinated and then you have the situation of getting the booster. my guess is we'll get into normality into the end of the first quarter next year. there's still a level of anxiety, but companies want their people back. they want to return to office. they really believe that's the best thing to keep the economy going. hopefully washington gets this mess figured out with the debt cei ceiling. but my guess is come second quarter next year, it's going to look more like 2019 than 2020. >> do you think that's the end of working from home or remote working or can some of the best
and most productive employees say i like this reality? >> i don't think it's the end of remote working i predict a mix of remote and non-remote kind of a mixed hybrid that we've been talking about and companies have to fully evident to their workers that they can keep them safe and they'll have safe buildings for this to truly work and the workforce and the employment activities might get to the 2020, early 2020 levels, but remote work is not going to go away. it's not going to go away. >> tom you're not so sure about that, are you? >> i think remote work is going to be like casual dress and what happened 20 years ago. we'll have remote friday the way we had casual friday you'll have some companies that go full remote like tech companies went flip flop and shorts
but i think companies will have a remote friday for a period of time we've seen an increase of over 50% of what was purely remote desire for jobs for companies looking to hire people saying it can be anywhere a year ago, now that number has decreased by 50%, companies are saying we want you to be within a computing distance to our office. >> so you can come in many at least a few days a week? >> exactly right it used to be be anywhere and little by little it's inching back i think we're really looking, hybrid yes, but not 3-2 or 50% all the time. >> everybody is be at this saying this is the strongest job market they've ever seen, things are incredible right now but there are so many concerns out there. things that haven't managed to shake the market yet but things out there. like the supply chain worries, what happens if the fed moves and raises rates, will that catch up at some point what do you think that will be,
if you had something to worry about, the labor market itself, what will that be? i know it's tough to find things when things look so good >> i think it's the fact that the landscape has changed, workers have changed, work has changed, people's expeck atte -- expectations have changed. i don't think it's going to be an aberration or a once a week think. i think there are a lot of designs around rethinking what work looks like and how the distribution is, and the way in which people can provide services i'm talking to people who are saying we can't even meet our demand goals in order to fulfill our performance goals because we don't have workers who are willing to work in the way that they did before. so companies have to adjust, individual workers have to adjust, and small things like building and design and furniture are going to be all at play in all of this. >> great to see both of you.
thanks for joining us on this friday. >> good to be with you have a great weekend. coming up, why bigger turkeys could be coming to a store near you always good. stay tuned you' wchg quk x"n cnbcin"sawbo o hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee and only pay for the features they need.
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>> that's what the a block was for. >> sometimes it -- >> good morning guess what we're thinking about this morning. >> sometimes it devolves into that sams club is unveiling its holiday plans. >> this is water cooler? >> yes saying it's expecting customers to host more gatherings this year, as a result the members only warehouse will throw more store events sell bigger turkeys, and larger sizes of popular side dishes. this is all fauci willing. >> he said last week he thinks we'll get together. >> i saw him backtrack it. >> i went back and looked at the original stuff he said -- >> i saw what he said. he said we'll see if i'll let you visit your relatives at christmas. >> he said we'll see if it's safe
how many of us thought we'd still be dealing with delta at this point. >> it was the onion or another one saying fauci said we may be able to do this christmas what we've done the last two. and carry more toy brands. this is what i was really excited about. also launching a wine delivery service in 16 states to drop off six and 12-pack bottles of wine. if you're not drinking wine that comes in a six-back you're not coming over. >> are you talking two buck chuck? >> what does that mean a six-pack of win? >> if you order a big order -- >> do they mean half a case? >> yes, they don't mean a six-pack they'll deliver in you order a bunch of wine. >> i thought md-20 was coming now. >> i was thinking two buck
chuck. >> it's 20 proof, sorry 20%, 40 proof. >> some people put a little seltzer water into their wine. >> asking for a friend >> yes in the meantime -- not asking for a friend >> leading to the next story. >> we'll talk about lyft and tinder because they are teaming up to let tinder members buy a ride for a potential date. you can buy a ride credit in the explore section of the tinder app. you won't get details on your match's address. so you don't have to worry about the security issue there but you can set the time, location, and value of the credit, then the recipient will get a link via email or text the sender can choose a one way or round trip ride and will get a refund if it's not used.
the thing about tinder i think, the thing about tinder, in this case you're sending them the credit, they'll know it but they don't know you like them, do they how does this work >> i guess if you're going to meet for a date. >> you like them -- >> i'll make sure i give you a ride maybe just here, maybe round trip but man this is -- >> right. >> what happens if you don't get -- >> a round trip ride you can get a ride one way -- >> it should be round trip from the beginning, don't you think i think they shouldn't do the one way. that feels -- >> cheap >> yep. >> chincy, suggestive, how many other words can i come up with >> you might go from tinder and lyft to netflix and chill. >> trying to figure out how much -- lots of partnerships to be done. >> this is a brave new world it would have been saved me a lot of time and my liver would be in better shape >> you don't have to leave your living room. >> you're shorting the bar
business is what you're suggesting >> yes i told you, man. i did my posing -- my posing never paid off >> shocked. >> too afraid to talk to anyone. >> you afraid to talk to people >> girls, yes. ladies, yes. i was afraid >> i'm afraid to talk every morning. >> i'm afraid to keep talking about this let's get us out of here. >> just glad i'm married. >> yes. >> you can stop dating, exercising. >> becky help us. >> stop bathing. when we come back -- >> stop bathing. >> -- exclusive results from our global councilury, sve interesting incite on the economy. stay tuned we'll be back in 30 seconds. look, as cfo it's my job to be ready for whatever's next. that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir. i will aim straight at your next step.
see that you do. would you like some coffee? workday. the finance, hr, and planning system for a changing world. ♪ we're back, exclusive results this morning from our cnbc global cfo council survey frank holland joins us with the findings good morning. >> good morning. more than a quarter of cfos, say cyber attacks are the biggest threat to their business as they blend at home and in office work here in the u.s., covid concerns have only grown in the course of the year with cyber concerns lesser over the start of 2021 but still rising as you can see from q3 to q4. supply chain concerns also noted. supply chain disruption was not an option in the first half of the year for the survey.
still less than 1% in q 1 and 2 saying the other answer. cyber costs are up 90% spending more to keep their companies safe 70% say they believe their networks are safer than they were just a year ago of course, covid continues to be a factor in all decision making and 80% of u.s. cfos say president biden vaccine and testing mandate for work places with more than 100 employees has their total support. 15% say they totally oppose vaccine mandates >> totally oppose the mandates so this is going to get interesting. >> still a divisive issue. thanks, andrew. >> thank you joe? >> coming up, jack ciattarelli, the man trying to unseat phil murphy in new jersey
here to tell us about taxes, spending plans, and later don't forget we're expecting the september jobs report at 8:30 eastern, hoping for it this morning futures are now positive the dow is up 50, 60 points, rng.thing like that this moin stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc one day, you're gonna take a hit you didn't see coming. do you stay down? or do you get up? [announcer] and this fight is a long way from over, leonard is coming back. ♪♪ ♪♪ our clients come to us with complicated situations that occur in their lives. for them it's the biggest milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business, or an important event for their family. for them, it's the first and only time.
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it is friday, so let's take a look at where the futures stand this morning after this wild week we've had the dow futures indicated up by about 65 points picked up a little bit of steam. s&p in positive territory up about 3.5 versus down a point an hour ago and nasdaq down below 4 points of fair value. all three of the averages are still up for the week. energy prices are the other story we're watching all week. wti sitting just above $79 per barrel natural gas is up about half a percent. after the moves in natural gas a lot of strong updays looking at natural gas up by about 1, 1.5% in the week. a recent tax foundation study new jersey was ranked as having the worst business climate in the country a lot of that stems from the state's taxes, property,
individual, corporate and more tell me about it, beck while governor phil murphy pledged not to raise taxes over the next four years, his republican candidate jack ciattarelli is planning to cut corporate taxes. it's good to see you, i see all your ads and one thing they have in common is that one outtake from governor murphy where he says if taxes are your thing then new jersey probably isn't your state we asked about that when he was on he said it's kind of taken out of context but number one you are right, no doubt, we know how taxes are in new jersey, becky and i live here but then the governor makes the point there are great things about new jersey that need to be paid for so i see what the point is how are you going to offer people that live in this great
state everything that they're getting now and not bring in as much revenue it seems difficult. >> let's be clear. it wasn't taken out of context he revealed himself. if taxes are your issue, we're probably not your state. new jersey has the highest property taxes in the nation new jersey year over year has the worst business climate in the nation i would suggest if those things continue as they have under phil murphy's four years new jersey is dying a slow death. nabisco is the latest to move out. oreo cookies won't be made in new jersey 600 good middle class paying jobs moved to the carolinas. i put a plan how to not raise taxes but also make us the envy of the other states when it comes to our economic climate. >> i think governor murphy heard the footsteps because he stopped
talking about raising taxes and talking about not doing that we have people like josh scgot jeimer, who said he doesn't want to raise taxes anywhere at this point. do you think at this point your prospects are looking much better i know that you're going to say yes, but i have seen single digit poll numbers recently, which is surprising, because new jersey is so deep blue most of the time although there was chris christie, but it's an uphill battle for a republican in new jersey >> it is an uphill battle but that doesn't mean it can't be won. we are right where we need to be at this point in time. republicans have won six of the last ten governor races here in the state. i'm not governor yet and i'm saving the people of new jersey money already. at the last debate it took five times for the moderator to ask but after the fifth time he said no new taxes i don't know how he's going to pay for a lot of the promises he's making since he's pledged to now not raise taxes
we can lower taxes in new jersey and again make this a state where people can live, work, retire and start a business and prosper. >> it seems like states like -- i think in the midwest, illinois, the latest news out of tesla, and elon musk, there's a lot of reasons, maybe, to move to texas the housing in san francisco is not affordable but it does seem like corporations are -- and individuals, are voting with their feet more and more, florida and the influx of people from the east coast down there it seems to be being borne out that maybe you raise taxes and get a little bit of revenue but then you lose it on the other end when everyone leaves. >> you do. listen, i don't believe you raise tax revenue in our state capitol by raising rates you raise revenue by expanding the base
making it a place where there's more good paying jobs and a place more businesses want to do business new jersey has the best modes of transportation in the country. we have the ports, airports, rails, cars, a ready, willing, and able middle class. more ph.d.s and engineers in the states we have the worst business climate in the nation. we have the worst property taxes in the nation. and all that needs to be fixed and that's what this campaign is about. >> we talk about new york, and andrew, you make the point it costs money to live in new york city, right? >> it costs money. it's expensive. >> i needle andrew about new jersey he said some things in the past, i don't know because you've driven down the turnpike so you look around and maybe it's not the -- you hear the soprano's theme music or something. >> beautiful beaches. >> you've been to the hills. >> yes. >> you've been to becky's home.
>> beautiful beautiful. >> do you agree that you can -- ask the governor a question, how do we do this? how do we provide the services of a great state and not raise taxes? >> this is the conundrum of our time jack, what do you do >> let me offer this you'll hear year over year new jersey has one of the best k-12 systems in in the country, that's true. we rank 1-2, 2-1 with massachusetts. massachusetts' public school system is 20% less expensive than new jersey. take 20% off the average property tax bill that's a big deal in new jersey, we'll no longer be last so i'll send a work study group up to massachusetts, what are they doing right that we're doing wrong. 20% off anyone's tax bill is a big deal in new jersey. >> what do you think is being done wrong >> i think part of it has to do with the way we fund schools from our state capital our current school funding formula to our districts is terribly flawed. the reason why a million dollar
home in jersey city or hoboken pays less in property taxes than a $400,000 home in many other towns across the state, toms river, my hometown of hillsboro. >> where do you think the costs are? it is, as you know, wildly unpopular to say that teachers would be overpaid. i think it would be hard to argue that teachers are overpaid, where would the money come from? >> i didn't say that i said the way naour state capital, our state government funds schools under the current formula, which is 13 years old, is a terribly flawed formula and it needs to be fixed we distribute billions in state aid to our 600 school districts. and we need to do that differently. in so doing we can lower property taxes i'm not going to have a $400,000 home paying less property taxes than a million dollar home in jersey city or hoboken. >> i don't get it either
i don't understand why property taxes are so much in some areas. i have kids in public schools in new jersey, great schools. but what is it where does the money get siphoned off what's the problem >> we've been doing it wrong for decades with regard to the current school funding formula. >> i don't understand. what's wrong about the formula >> it's nefarious, arbitrary, unfair i'll say unconstitutional violating the equal benefit clause of our constitution it distributes aid to the homeowner of a million dollar home in jersey and hoboken who have experienced revitalization. aid was for communities that couldn't stand on their own two feet i'm not going to leave any child community alone, but as a community that can generate property tax revenue, play for schools, that aid should be redistributed and it's not here in new jersey. that's the big problem
>> there's a -- becky, you mentioned, i've seen this before, too, so the millionaire tax rate, would you get rid of -- that just happened with governor murphy, 8.97 to 10.75%. does that say in a ciattarelli administration >> under governor murphy we have one of the highest personal tax rates in the nation, it's 10 pa10.75, pennsylvania is at 3%. we need something that works for everyone and my platform puts forth how to do that. >> are you with josh gotheim on that >> yes we send more to d.c. than we get back we want the s.a.l.t. deduction back that's something i disagreed with president trump on, as well as offshore drilling and the gate way project
considering new jersey's role to the regional economy, the regional's role to the national. boston got the big dig, we want the gateway project funded. >> still down a little in the polls. but on the tax issues you poll better than murphy maybe there's something. if you flip the overall poll to where the tax polls are, you'd be winning at this point so that is something that your ads might be resonating in terms of that, sir >> all i can tell you, if you look at history, the six times we've won in the last 10 races for governor here in new jersey, we are right where we need to be at this point in time and we'll go out and deliver our message every day, i'm confident of a win on november 2nd. >> we have governor murphy on all the time you have to come on every week >> i'll come on every day. i love talking about how to fix
new jersey >> thanks for coming on today. appreciate it. >> guys, thank you coming up when we return, the senate passing a short-term increase to the debt limit with the house set to vote next week, but what's the long-term fix we'll talk about avoiding economic catastrophic with david wesle. we'll do that next wealth is shug down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it. principal. for all it's worth. ♪ earl: - hey barista: - good morning, earl! narrator: - since our beginning, barista: - there he is! narrator: - we've looked to inspire and nurture each other, by asking what's possible? what's possible when we connect?
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congress reaching a deal to extend the debt ceiling, to raise it by $480 billion and avoid an unprecedented federal default. the house is expected to pass the bill for more on all of it and what's going on in washington, we want to bring in david wedges, the author of a book everything should read "only the rich can play" about the story of opportunity zones that is out this week with a nice blurb by david rubenstein, by the way anyway, let's dot-com to this david. david, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> good morning. help us understand what's happened last night and to the extent that it matters, how you think this is going to play again because this movie will start up all over in november. >> basically, the republicans were unwilling to put the u.s. into default they bought some time from the
democrats i think the democrats will unify their caucus and put together moderates and progressives to pass the big spending bills and tax bills they have in the works you mentioned my book. this is how washington will work in the end somebody will take something to get their vote the republican of south carolina managed to get the opportunities into the bill. i am certain, well, we'll get something and allow them to swallow hard and democrats will pass it. i'm not sure but most people watching think democrats aren't so stupid as to blow this chance for a huge legislation. >> you think they get both bills? >> i think they get both bills in the end i'm not saying it will be messy and 100%. >> what do you think it is manchin and sinema get >> i have no idea. >> especially with the tax hike issues
>> i think in the end it will be pressure from biden and from other democrats that let's not go into the next year with a failure on the part of this thing. so it will be, i don't know what they specifically want i mean, the joke in washington is that no one knows what kirsten kcinema wants and she won't tell them. manchin has things about the fossil fuels but in the end will come around. the profit is democrats have no margin >> come around to what, though because there is a view, joe, we were talking about it earlier that potentially this bill is just more progressive, if you will, than where the country may very well be do you agree or disagree with that idea? >> i'm not sure about that look i was interested in the government candidate from new jersey, i am against what biden
is doing, but i want this infrastructure bill. i think the democrats are counting on the fact while the headlines may be scary to people within they see what's in it people will want these benefits. the republicans are betting if you can talk enough about taxes and debt that people won't appreciate what's in the bill so look i think the democrats think like this is their only shot if they don't get this bill passed, it will never happen and the biden administration will be a failure. i think it's that partisan pressure that will bring them an there sa lot of bargaining surely the progressives know they will not get a $3.5 trillion bill. senator manchin will not gate 1.5 billion. congress is very good at compromise, in the en, but the thing is so bitter now both within the democratic party and between democrats and republicans that it seems almost
impossible to imagine them coming to a deal but i guess they do. >> david, meantime, you have a book out it's a spectacular read so congratulations to you what is so fascinating to me is you go inside the creation of the opportunity zones, you point the finger at sean parker as in many ways the brain child of all of this, but something that started with i think good intent that's what i was going to ask you. did it start with the right intent or do you think it was always nefarious by the end of the book, clearly, things had gone off the rails? >> i think sean parker and the think tank he funded innovation group wanted to do something for america left behind communities. but they were so committed to their version, which has very little regulation and oversight from the treasury and they were, frankly, naive at how aggressive taxpayers and lawyers are that they've created something not
doing good on their promise. i don't think they were bad intentions, but sean parker, thinks he has a better idea than people in washington he says he's in the saving money on this tax break. >> we got to run, but could it have been done right >> yes, i think there are ways to structure tax-based policies that would direct the money to the intended purposes and not to ritz carlton condos in portland, oregon, or office towers in chicago. >> david weitzel, congratulations on the book. thank you for joining us this morning. >> you are welcome when we come back, tesla announcing it is moving its headquarters to austin more on what that means for investors. later is the rise of esg to blame for natural gas prices and fears of a natural energy shortage stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc
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debt deal for the president's desk from the golden state to the uxz golding star state, tesla is moving its headquarters. plus, food realities, suppliers struggling to meet demand, investors look to punish companies, look at how esg investing could be playing a role in the move for oil prices. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now sn♪ good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc him i'm andrew ross song, along with becky and joe concerning a u.s. equity futures. right now, 31 points higher on the dow, the s&p 500 looking to open marginally higher, the nasdaq down about 6 points i say maybe because we will jobs
friday, folks. that means that all of this may very well change a lot in the next hour-and-a-half but when 8:30 hits, when we get that jobs number mane time, the senate now passing a temporary increase in the u.s. debt ceiling. move staveing off a potential debt by the u.s. the agreement only lasting until december 3rd so republicans are still maintaining that democrats will have to implement the next debt ceiling increase by themselves to budget reconciliation we will see what happens between now and then and as we just mentioned, we're now less than 90 minutes away from that september jobs report. the number to beat consensus forecast calling for 500,000 new non-farm jobs for september with the unemployment rate at 5.1% compared to august 5.2%. still for everybody playing at home, those are the numbers to watch. meantime, 19 states and the district of colombia have filed
an ad min stave complaint. they want the postal regulatory commission to cut expenses over ten years ago a part of the plan that went in effect weeks ago, slowing down first class mail delivery and some are closing different offices and the like the big issue with the post after has been the pension plan. are they profitable or non-profitable it's almost an accounting issue at this point. >> yes but watching what's going to happen with this, how long it will take mail in some cases four-to-five days if you want to send it more than 800 miles. if you are sending something across the country, it gets to the point where it's almost unusable, bills that you pay, will they get returned on time >> it becomes the boone to potentially fed-ex you think that people. >> docusign. anywhere that i can pay digitally, i do.
there are a few bills i have i can't pay online at this point that's what worries me. >> the trucks on sundays. >> yes. >> sundays >> well, it is rain or sleet or dark of night. >> postal trucks on sunday. >> are we talking the ups trucks >> amazon guys are nuts. that's all i'm going to say. >> that's all you are going to say? elaborate. >> because they park it's like, oh, i have a delivery here errr they park right there. and it's like, you know,ers that cars coming both ways. >> the ups guy that comes, it's the same guy most of the time, so he knows the route. amazon, it's catch as you can, they're pulling out. >> they park wherever they need to park, hey, i'm with amazon, all right. you want your -- >> you are dealing with them >> relative to new york city, they're basically doing outdoor
fulfillment, warehouses set up shop. >> we keep ordering and by the way, it's the a-block. >> it's the a-block. i was just going to say that you know what i was going to say? but we have dom chu. he's always so engaging and interesting. it's almost a hybrid a-block, c-block-type situation dom. >> i love the conversations that happen because i'm thinking to myself, these are the same conversations i'm having with other people in our newsroom right knew, they're conversations with my wife, my friends, my golfing partners, whoever it is, these exact conversations are happening. by the way to pecky's point, the same fed-ex and ups guy that delivers all of our stuff all the time, my postal service guy mike is the same guy there so it's a shout out to him and the u.s. postal service. anyway, it is shops friday as you guys have pointed out so interest rates a key focus.
we are seeing a slight kick higher in yield, everywhere up to the 30-year long bonn, right now, though, the current state of play puts the yield high of the sessions right now earlier we saw a 1.60 print. right now about 1.59%. some of the highest levels we've seen going back to the summer. so certainly those ten-area notes in focus because of the interest rates and the economic impact to them some of the interest rate sensitive sectors very much in focus as well. for that we look at the big banks as a way to see whether or not there is any kind of a movement in rate and what that does to the rest of the market so right now j.p. morgan chase up a fraction. bank of america shares up half of 1%. .2 for wells fargo the big banks watch those in the pre-market trade, especially after the 8:30 him then check out what's happening with
megacap tech a lot of the volatility trades so far apple shares just about flat same for microsoft alphabet fractionally higher, amazon flat. so megacap tech. banks in focus, joe, i'll send things back over to you guys >> very good, dom. so you had amazon ready to go before the previous conversation >> i did >> that's good >> anticipation. >> all right thanks >> see you later. in the meantime, tesla is getting a if you home that's one of the highlights from last night's shareholder meeting. phil lebeau joins us he has more on that people have been thinking maybe this was going to be a switch to headquarters was this a surprise or oh, yeah, we get it? >> i think everybody is oh yeah, we get it. nobody is surprised they're moving headquarters to texas and last night when they started the annual meeting, check out this graphic that they made as soon as it popped up, i thought, well, that's kind of interesting. it looks like a sheriffs bag
with a tesla logo in the middle. it says don't mess with. we all know what that means, don't mess with texas, don't mess with tesla. that's not an official logo. that was a graphic that popped up before the am meeting started last night texas is where they have built a few gigafactory, started production in july of 2020 they're almost done. in fact, they will begin production of the first vehicles to come out of there later this year it will be model wise. as for the cyber truck,which will be built at that gigafactory. elon musk said it won't go into production until later next year the goal for tesla, according to musk, is bringing down the cost of vehicles overall. that's a challenge right now in this environment >> our goal is to make the cars as affordable as possible him we are seeing significant course pressure in our supply chain and so we've had to increase vehicle
prices at least temporarily. but we do hope to actually reduce the praises over time and make them more affordable. >> as that gigafactory comes online, there will be one outside of berlin, germany, those two should ramp up their ability to deliver well over a million vehicles over the next couple years last year, a half million vehicles so far this year, they've delivered 6,227 vehicles most believe they'll get close to 850 to 875,000 vehicles this year elon musk said, look, we're growing at about a 50% clip. that will continue as long as the chip supply improves in the future he is cautiously optimistic that will happen. one other note about this move to texas one thing elon musk stressed is the company is not completely abandoned in ka they have a plant in in fremont.
that should expand production over the next couple of years, according to elon musk guys, i have been out there several times. they're bursting at the seams at that plan. that plant was the old newbee plant for general motors and toyota it was land locked it's still land locked there is a limit how much you can do with that facility out there. you add in offices and the headquarters next year in palo alto, not surprise at all. >> it's one of the things you talked about, you mentioned this the chip supply, being able get enough chips is a real problem he said something we hope it will get resolved soon and i just wonder if he knows something we don't or if that's just wishful thinking. most of the people we hear from think that will not get resolved until any time next year >> i took that language to being similar to what we heard from gm executives in detroit and other auto executives.
cautious optimism. that's all i took it as in terms of the situation, according to people we've talk with, it is improving but very gradually it's not like you're flipping a switch and everything's better remember, even's the supply improves, becky, it will take a long time for the auto industry to build up its inventory again. it's a slightly different situation with tesla, because they're not supplying a dealer fork but they still are impacted to some degree. although we saw with the deliveries they managed the situation far better than any other auto maker out there and so when he said that, i listened and thought, okay he's cautiously optimistic that's about as i took it. >> actually, when you say that's what you are hearing from all of them, i didn't realize, i thought this was going to be a bad problem. it sound like it's improving on a gradual basis, so maybe we've seen the worst of it is is that a fair assessment
>> yes well, i think we've seen the worst of it if terms of the ability of auto makers and their production in other words, the production schedules are down i don't know, from 10-to-15% you know relative to where they were last year in the fourth quarter. most believe you are going to see a gradual improvement from there. but remember, it's the building up of the inventory. that's the real problem here when you talk with dealers in the auto industry overall, fought tesla, they don't have the ability to build up tear inventory at all that's because the auto makers are running production at full schedule even at that they're not doing all of their shifts. >> did you see his analogy elon's analogy, it's so crowded, peek are like spam in a can. he is funny. i don't know how he came up with that but i really think we need to cherish elon musk. i really do. i mean, he is sa once in a
generation type guy like an edison >> he is a once in a generation leader there is no doubt about that no doubt about that at all >> and funny and sometimes says things like there is no way you should have said that or tweeted it the sec stuff or whatever does things, but we need, i really think so we need to cherish it. we're living at the same time as this guy we were not all of us were living at the same time as edison >> i'll give you stuff i'll give you material >> there is a headline >> i'll give you -- >> are you coming around. >> i do love it. >> i'm moving to texas. >> for years -- >> i understand -- >> this is like saturday night live that was good and self deprecating and and explaining it that caught me. >> for years i said you are having amazing money and. >> having flipped, i still think. >> a flame thrower. >> he lost you with the flame
thrower. >> the things he's done. but, i mean. >> how could you not >> i think he is cashing in. >> if you think of what he is doing for the world. >> that's right. >> you disagree with that? >> a little bit. >> certainly a good business model. >> you got to charge those cars, dude instant coal okay >> see >> even 40% coal >> thanks. >> okay. coming up, pfizer asking regulators to authorize emergency use of its covid vaccine for children ages 5-to-11 and dr. scott gottlieb is here on a friday to sucdiscu that and so much more him all this can change in a little more than an hour the dow at 50 points higher. the nasdaq going open 6 point higher s&p 500 looking to open about 3 point higher we will see whether unemployment gets lower than 5 points
the marks steady it's friday. check out the price of crude, though this morning, i did fill up yesterday. it's expensive cirque. expensive. "squawk box" coming right back hey, coach prime... i think you've got what it takes to wear the aflacket. style, charisma, and a smile, that's a 21 out of 10! [aflac!] you know, aflac can help keep unexpected healthcare costs from ruining someone's finances. check out this coverage... you still got it coach, you still got it! i never lost it! yeah! [aflac!] you see that coverage? with that wingspan i see why you got more rings than a cell phone. there's always room for one more. yeah! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com ♪ ♪
yesterday for emergency use authorization of its covid vaccine for kids aged 5 to 11. the agency is set to meet and consider that request later this month, joining us to talk about it is dr. scott gottlieb, a former cnbc contributor and serves on the boards of both pfizer and illumina. this is something that means we are on track for that meeting that comes the 25th or 26th of october when the fda considers it >> that's right. they are meeting october 26thle they'll make a decision on the application at that point whether or not they recommend authorization of the vaccine for 5-to-11 and cdc would convene shortly after that and make a recommendation about use of the vax. >> so we're talking first week of november, if they approve it, kid will be able get the shot? >> yeah, i think it would be available fairly soon after a positive cdc recommendation.
the company has been working to get it to the package required for delivery to kids ages 5-to-11. so there shouldn't be a delay? available. >> how likely are they owe owe we shot with booster shots, it would be an easier situation than it was. not everyone on the advisory panels agreed with it. is this a chance it went to some portions of the kid, the older kids, is there a chance they would say no outright, that they want more information in. >> look, it's hard to speculate what the fda or cdc might do i haven't seen anything in the commentary around the data from the public health community that would suggest there is a controversy around this, that would suggest people are more uncomfortable as to whether or not this will be mandated. i don't see any pan dated use of this vaccine for a long time i don't see cdc making a
recommendation in this gets incorporated or mandated for children for years and years from now i think the cdc will want to wait to see what the post-pandemic phase looks like they want them fully approved. so that's where i see some chatter and conversation in the public relevantth community or among consumers. but nothing realed to the application, itself, in the data set per se. >> los angeles has already taken the step they want to make sure anybody ages 12 and up is pan dated to get that vaccine to go to school there. why would you fought see that take place in other places, especially kids 5-to-11 in terms of spanning the controversy? >> right look, i think there is going to be some select cities that make the decision to do this, like los angeles. i don't think they will be the only one you will see private schools make that decision
first of all, adolescents is a different decision it's transferrable for kids 12 and up regulatory. ages 5 to learn you want a separate data set. i think the cdc will want a lot of data in 5-to-11-year-olds before they consider whether or not this should be incorporated into the child's immunization schedule traditionally we see a delay in years before adoption into the kyle's immunization schedule so i don't think this is going to be federally mandated for years. there will be the rare exception. >> some are interested if getting them vaccinated if they're at a heightened risk how difficult is it going to be to find a place where you can get a shot it's not something you can go to your pediatrician on the 1st of november, where would you want to take your child if you want to do it right away? >> i think it's going to be available in pharmacies like the
adult vaccines are available i suspect you will see local townships set up vaccinate sites like they did for vaccines forred a less center, where they administer at schools and settings where kids can come in and get it so i think that local communities will create them and they are working on available as well. >> still to come on "squawk box," energy making big moves this month but what hole does it pla i this that trade? a look behind some of the spikes resent e recently, we will look at the markets and the september jobs report. that number an hour away you are looking at green across the border s&p up by 5. the nasdaq up by almost 13 all month long, we will be spotlighting cnbc contributors and anchors and reporters.
here's cnbc.com news editor. >> all the opportunities that come to you. it's not something you enjoy the rest of your life, whatever your dream job is, it can turn out, it's an opportunity that you like and make a whole career out of it. so take advantage of the ton as they come along and you will be they come along and you will be the right yo trackkly. that's decision tech, only from fidelity.
global energy crisis is still pushing oil stocks and gas prices higher. yesterday the head of global commodities at goldman sachs explained what he thought was one of the factors driving the price action >> that's the same dynamics impacting uk gas, european gas, the goal market in china the oil mark it is structural under investment and the ability to supply and deliver these commodities, particularly higher carbons in the face of key carbonization.
we like to call it the revenge of the old economy, pour returns in the economy saw capital redirected, cloaking off the capital in that supply base. you overlay esg issues on open top of that, you korea it this structural impediment to supply. >> joining us with more on whether esg plays in this environment. jonathan bailey, it's all your fault, jonathan, kidding and kevin o'leary, investor and venture capitalist today's dujour natural gas shortage talking about a tanker headed to sprain, all the way to g gibbraltar the other it was about coal. if china, it's gotten so bad that they've turned off the traffic lights can you imagine, because they
don't have enough coal is there any doubt in your mind, o'leary, this has to do with woke esg investing >> not at all. but you don't have to go as far as china to see what happens when you under invest in high ro carbon infrastructure. go north to canada, sex years ago, trudeau got the mandate, he shut down the carbon industry and having them purchase the pipeline from the west where there was an abundance of oil to the east where there is none today in the eastern provinces of canada, they have no oil. they have to import it from countries that don't pay any carbon taxes and those stips go ships go up and kasdz on the east coast have nothing. today they've realized this is a disaster an unmitigated disaster. because the canadians imposed a
huge carbon tax and have no energy in winter for the eastern provinces. the same thing is happening in the united states. biden cancelled that pipeline as soon as he got into power. now we're worried about what happens next when we figured out less than 5% of our cars are electric we need hydrocarbons, try flying 250 on solar power, it ain't going to happen. we will have a 20, 30 year investment i bet you the oil cartel would love us to shut down oil production in north america so they can spike the price of oil past $1200 and make us dependent on them. this is madness, really. >> hey, jonathan, the traffic lights are one thing and i don't know jet fuel obviously no one is going to stop producing jet fuel but real issues affecting, you know, average people in europe i mane can you imagine a cold winter where either you can't
get the pow eyou need for heating or you are paying three times? you know, middle class people with monthly bills three times what they were, this could become a real issue near term. >> i fully appreciate that point. right. there is an imbalance of supply and demand there are short term reasons for that we had a global deplapd for power as we've come out of the worst of the hurricane crisis and leading to inventories being lower. the russians withholding supply down 50% from a year ago through ukraine. these things will work their way out over the next anywhere or so we need to got get kind of caught into the short-term problems when we think about the need for the energy transition, which is about long-term capital investment that long-term capital investment if you look back at the history of the early gas sect ore over the last decade, it's proven
they have not been good allocators why should we be rushing extra dollars their way when they have been poor to shareholders? >> you like capital to go where it's treated best. obviously right now, a lot of the per btu a lot of the new renewable ways of doing things are much more expensive and they're subsidized if we move too quickly on this before the market is really ready for it, doesn't that by definition mane you will be paying too much and you are taking capital away from other ventures where it would have been treated better, can't we screw this up by droo trying to do it to too quickly i keep using the word woke, but that's what it is. >> actually prices are lower for many of these are you newable power opportunities. >> okay. kevin, you want to take a shot at that? >> i'm just pointing out, let
the market will the mark if the demand for sustainable energy is there, which it is, and nobody wants to see more damage to climate if this is the case and carbon emissions are causing these problems but because the market is very efficient, we should let companies like chevron, like exxon, take a portion of their property which they would be happy to do and develop other source of nempblth you can't run an economy without stable long-term energy sources the market should decide that. when governments mandate esg, which has happened to canada, it happened in europe and england that when you get distortions and all of a sudden you run out of supply. we should make sure and realize, be honest with ourselves, hydrocarbon can be around for the next 30, 40 years. get over it and realize that you can take a portion of that profit, driven by the markets, driven by shareholders, by managers, to solve for this. but if we can't get the government to do it because they don't have the resources, they
can mandate with policy, which is what biden is doing and all of a sudden we realize, uh-oh, oil will cost $1200, still the major reason we still have a 100 based economy. we will get there. the market ols always knows best marks fail and the british and europeans and everybody else let the market be the mark it really works. >> jonathan, has esg been around long enough for you to definitively say that people that have, that want to go that route, are they going to get better returns or are they going to do something that they feel is worthwhile for the planet or whatever else? can you really say without a doubt that returns are going to be higher than when esg is not taken into account >> i'm not going to predict the future but if you go back historically and look at the performance of sustainable funds as defined by money star on our rolling
three-year basis, actively managed, that will show the majority of those time periods, they outperform, so is horically, there is new data there. more importantly is where is the world going? we're going through this transition, rightly or not we go back to 1860 and think about the transition for way of oil. the cost of long shore wind, those are clear and definitive we don't feed subsidies for those to be technologies that are going to be driving the returns that share hollers and investors mean our clients are embracing the carbon transition and why they're looking to back. there will be short trades to be made by whom who want to take advantage of these locations over a kind of short-term period over the long term, this is inevitable it doesn't need government subsidy to be able to deliver on it, ultimately consumers want evs. they want to be able to live a lifestyle that doesn't have huge amounts of sulfur dioxide out
into the-at- they can do that without sacrificing the cost basis on which they are operating on the household budget we think if you invest behind that and sold the capital challenges for energy storage, for transmission and distribution, that's where the opportunity is and now we think there will be exciting returns in those spaces. >> kevin, if we were totally ev right now, everyone would be feeling virtuous plugging in their ev 40% of global power, global electricity is coal. so i don't even think they want to know that when they're dock it it's like, don't, please, don't where i that up. >> that is a huge problem. you know the way to solve this problem is simply strip away subsidies for all sectors. don't subsidize anything and let the market be the market the coal issue i know coal gets bashed so much. but the truth about coal is, there are new technologies to burn coal much cleaner than decade ago it will get better if we let the
market be the mark the sources of energy, the optionings we have, eb lofts the idea of totally green esg planet that's wonderful we'll get there if you let the market do it just stop subsidizing bad ideas and let the mark determine how it's going to work it's happening all over the world in a really, really volatile way because of policy that's mistaken you can't tell me governments don't make mistakes. they make mistakes all the time. right now, it's politically expedient to talk green all day long him i'm okay with that. let the market decide. it's worked the last 200 years we'll get there with new technology, it keeps developing it you got to threat the market do its tipping. what is happening is getting scary. watching that price of the oil go up past $80 bucks we have been here before it really hurts the economy. >> rich countries can afford this kind of stuff i even brought up yesterday, we got to go.
mavlo's hierarchy in need. we're assuming that bottom thing, we got that lit warm survival, travel, all that stuff. we can work on these more cerebral things up at the top. we'll see. it's only october. i hope we don't have a hideous winter bad things happen in countries that can't afford this i think so to happen jonathan, thank you. kevin, we're going to invite you two back i think at some.. it's a contrast in terms did you notice that? >> and here it is you love elon muck now. >> i love elon musk. i love him my premise. >> he's smart enough - >> i just told you, you got to plug the cars in so how is that >> heal tell you that eventually the plan is to get to wind and gold that itself the goal >> hey, he's very smart. very smart like anybody that has. you are smart.
>> i think it's totally overdone, i do >> he doesn't even believe himself. you think it's completely disingenuous >> i don't think it matters. >> it's an entrepreneurial capitalistic employ. i think elon is smart. i think he's a capitalist. i don't think he's is -- >> coming up, another capitalist, 8vc founding partner joe lonsdale and counting down to the jobs po, e mb a mket reaction next hour "squawk" returns after this. at'e >> i'm moving to texas observing investors choose assets to balance risk and reward. with one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. agile and liquid. a proven protector. an ever-evolving enabler of bold decisions. an asset more relevant than ever before.
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let posh answer. posh virtual receptionists. welcome back, everybody. among our stocks to watch the morning, we have been keeping an eye on somesung. the company said third quarter profit rose 28% to 13.3 billion. that's the highest level in three years. that was driven by rising prices from memory chips and display sales from smartphone maker's newest devices, they were slightly below and samsung shares fell slightly down about
a tenth of a percent check out allergy therapeutics they were put on hold aller jen says it stems from a chromosomal abnormality in a patient with stage 4 lymphoma that stock down 34%. andrew >> thanks, elon muck making a major announcement at the company's shareholder meeting. take a look. >> we will be continuing to expand our activities in california so this is not a matter of tesla leaving. our intention is to actually increase output and by 50% >> we're going to ask joe lonsdale about the move and what it means for the lone-star state and his state on taxes and what's going on in walk. we are back with all of that right after this
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is this a facts pla i or something else >> you know, congress has something they call reveal preference around the world, there is more people who want to come to america. within america, there is millions of people going to places like texas and florida. so you see this belch for the millions of people moving to the states as well as the facts that the smaller states have a headquarters and fortune 500 companies. texas is probably be a better place. no exception texas is nowhere else >> the reason i ask is when you think about an austin, a dallas, a houston, in fact, when you look at the cities in places like texas, the politics could start to shift over time >> you know the people moving into texas overall are tend to be moving to be a part of a free society. i don't think everyone necessarily agrees with 100% of the social issues in terms of
politics is working on that side if terms of making a small efficient government, people are moving in and tend to be aligned with that. that's what people are talking here obviously, it may shift some of the social politics over time. >> how do you think it changes the politics of blue states, like a california, like a new york, like a washington? >> well, in the idea federalism is out of competition to let people know certain constraints are not necessary. hopefully it shifts things with the extremes on the populous right and aren't tempered by it. in texas, the pop louse left in california where you can move things more towards a more rational compromised center. >> how much of this, though, do you think is a story about taxes and how much do you think it's a story about housing costs? because when you do look at the housing costs in california around san francisco, for example, relative to what the prices of housing, which are
going up in a very big way in austin as well, and they're still materially lower, how much do you think that is what is driving so much of this? >> you know, it's a great point, housing costs are also tied to politics they're tied to permit laws, tied to the ability to be aloud to have property rights and how our zoning works they're tied to a lot of issues that the politics control. you have really corrupt politics all of the money in california drives the prison guard unions you have a state that makes it very difficult to build up costs. >> can you imagine a time when you would return to california-to-as your home >> you know, california is a beautiful place but it seems like the politics are still quite extreme. it seems like california still wants to be a society that's either a billionaire or you are a working class person and you don't seem to have the ability to easily build and bring down the cost of living, down the costs of healthcare and they seem to be focused on fixing their education.
so i think it will be quite a while before california will be fixed. >> you don't think taxes go up in texas to make all of this work you are supporting the middle class? there is an argument made that in a decade from now texas will look like california >> you know if you actually look at the taxes in california, what they're spent on is a massive special interest group they have a couple million people, government unions and there is like the pensions are out of control there is just a very badly-run state. if you think they are spending mo inin california, the money in california is wasted so you know texas, hopefully, will not be wasteful with its money. they hope to keep an efficient government as it has now that's the question. it's not a tradeoff of helping more people. it's a tradeoff of fought getting the government wasting the money. >> let's talk about walk, talking about special interests and lots of money him some people think it will be wasted him some think it will be put to
good use but all of it, if it's going to happen at all, requires either higher taxes or some way to raise revenue. how would you do it? or would you do it at all? >> you know, i think the infrastructure bill is a compromise i don't love how they're going after crypto but i think in general, have you two bills, one where you need infrastructure to be built and it was a reasonable xhiechltz they compromise they changed it. it's a crazy thing as manchin says, it's like really bad for our country and very scary and so you know if i was going to be building infrastructure, i might be looking for places to cut waste. you don't need to buy quite as many attack hocks tore adversaries in afghanistan somerset things are passing out. in a lot of ways there is fraud with medicare and medicaid and lack of accountability lead to
smarter government i think we should be smarter about things and use that for infrastructure >> i don't you said you don't like the way they're going after crypto, what do you mean >> if you look at the infrastructure bill, yellen and her cronies seriously want to have a digital dollar and don't like decentralized stuff against that they don't like cryptos. there is a big fight where certain parts, people around here are going after cryptos they redefine how people are in the bill there is a lot of mistakes basically trying to lock in rolls to attack and watch it better you are careful putting in top down rules while they're evolving and technology is still changing >> are you long term a bitcoin bull >> no i think it's useful to have competition in general to make things better, like competition among states and with our federal reserve with different alternatives is a good thing. so i like the fact there is competition if you have
currency people worry without currency don't like that. sow see that play out. i would like the government is not able to crush its competition there. it keeps the federal reserve in check a little bit >> you like the idea of competition for the federal reserve? >> of course i think any government, any companies do, when you have a big company with no competition. you call the cable guy when there is only one cable guy if town it's not a good thing. the federal reserve has very interesting competition with crypto that's something all of us should keep in place that will kind of keep them in check. >> are you invested in crypto right now? >> yes, since the beginning of bitcoin and etherium, a few others i have been the owner. i think they're good for the world overall. i think you see china as an authoritarian country that doesn't want any kind of free competition. i really hoped we wouldn't get to the end of the u.s. the u.s. would embrace it. >> joe lonsdale, some fro
voktive views this morning ahead of the jobs number great to see you >> thanks, andrew. when we come back, we will talk more about tesla moving its headquarters to austin, texas. we will talk about that right after this plus as andrew mentioned, we're awaiting a september jobs report coming in the next five minutes. the futures ahead of that, hanging in there, all in positive territory not massive movement at this point. probably waiting to see what happens with the jobs nuer e nasdaq up by 15. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc
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matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire . good morning it's jobs friday we are only 30 minutes away from the number futures are accommodating that data on a true roller coaster week on wall street. debt ceiling deal. we got one, an increase in the sprawling limit. it's temporary, the house shouldn't be too far behind, get ready, do this all over again just under two months. don't mess with tesla. elon musk ev giant says it is
moving from california, yep, to texas. they're going to talk to a top tesla watcher about that relocation as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, welcome to "squawk box. here on cnbc becky is there, she has the friday smile, joe kernon along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin i think he dreads weekends i do, if your career is on hold, the career is temporarily on hold you are itching. >> you got to work you got to work. >> yeah. u.s. equity futures at this time. >> it's true. >> good to be on a fast track. it is, it is, it's really good u.s. equity. >> a side hustle, hustle, hustle >> and monday comes way too
quick. we know that and that has been demonstrated again and again the futures. 830 is the key for the jobs report we can see that prior to that, after pretty surprising sessions, wednesday, we were down 450 did you see that you were in there. they were down 450 and closed up 1 humidity that was billing it looks like we were starting to see >> it's a debt deal, a potential. >> yesterday, also, now we have actually turned this morning and we'll see what happens the jobs report, treasury yields we did see 1.6 finally on the 10 year 1.58, though, right now. >> we are following three big stories as we begin this hour. the markets, the nation's job picture and the senate debt ceiling deal we've got the right people for all three of those stories, mike santoli, steve leishman and ylan
mui. mike, start with you, can you tell us where we stand ahead of this big number in. >> as we head into 8:30, the stockmarket is in the ready position which means it's not leaning too far one direction. we have a 4-to-5 week slide. then we bounce almost 3% off those lows essentially, where we sit right here is almost evenly spaced between the september 2nd high and low from early monday. that's the inter-day lows. yesterday, encouraging to have a third day of a rally, encouraging to have a little bit of relief from the downside momentum i think. on the other hand, the rally did peter out almost exactly where a lot of skeptical traders said it would. a lot of those things are definitely leaving open both sides of the argument for the debate take a look at the yield story the five-year treasury yield is an interesting pick here you've nosed the above the spring-time highs.
this is more dramatic than the ten year, which is low the spring highs right here in the vistin cindy of 1%. the five year incorporate the outlook for the fed tightening expectations are, plus, okay, some inflation so it seems there the money to move back into reflation, get traction in cyclical's that is also now just barely kind of nosed above what was its spring-time high, so clearly tracking the story you have energy financials and a strong bounce in industrials rails. you want to know you can react sell rating. the labor market is coming through i don't know whether it
has that debate. >> schools were opened, most were opened. but still a few questions about that mike, earlier we were talking 1.6% for the 10-year it's an interesting level we were up earlier in the spring and thought we were going to push on. is 1.6% an important technical level? >> in the 1.5s, yes, that is where some of these rallys have stalled out. i think when you got through that upside back to 1.75, 1.77 that was on this high momentum move blast higher. so it seems the market has to prove it has an appetite to get back up to those levels. interestingly, it has not been on a day-to-day basis of one per one correlation between treasury yields and big growth stocks those got so stressed to the downside they have been able to bounce through this
who knows if there is a threshold where that equation changes this time around mike, thank you. now, in less than 30 minutes away from the september jobs report, steve leishman joins us now with a preview what's up, steve good morning >> yeah. hey, just real quick, what santoli was talking about. 49% probability in the september 22 rate hike come back here a second. the street is looking for, we'll call it an inbetween number. not as strong as the jobs added in may and june. it's likely for the fed to taper. 500,000. that itself mark for september the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.1% another strong month of earnings at po.4. adp came stronger than expected. not enough to prompt too many upgrades on the street david from the hr software company, ukg pointed to the prior three months, now looks roughly inline with the
consensus, that 0.1% seasonal correlates with payroll around 500,000 plus or minus. how much plus or minus we will what up that carefully they think there is a low bar for the fed to keep on the taper path he writes in his commentary. we now believe the fed will go ahead and taper in november even if the report is in the ballpark of the previous disappoint, report for august. powell said he wanted a decent number this mate be in between factors keeping job breathe depressed. they were proving the worst of the delta-related slowdown extended unemployment benefits were ending and schools were fix and starts just as september began so there are some indications job growth picked up in the second half of this month. we have to wait, joe, until november for that. >> yes, we do. so, okay when it hit, steveing tell me
top three things than the nominal number that you are waiting for? >> you know i. to see participation you want to see people coming back in the work force they had a lot of retirement ef jefferson writes an interesting piece of 3 million people we can't see to find them. i don't know if you have seen a bun of gen yers. is that what that would be 2024? >> a series on netflix, 3 million people, they disappear, come back 40 years later or something. what about wage? >> hopefully more educated than they have. >> wage gains. all that stuff is important. isn't it >> yeah, i mean, look. one of the things we are watching joe, we are about 6%
wage gains that's a percentage point greater than inflation you want to see wages keeping pace with that and then some that's what you would expect in a tight job mark it's kind of funny, we don't get a full picture from the jobs report, itself we wait for that jolt survey to see if somehow we are making some progress on those 11 million job option, where they are and why they are >> okay. all right, steve we'll see you soon ut won't be long. >> meantime, to the story that helped fuel the market rise in a big way, that is the emerging debt ceiling deal in washington ylan mooi joins us with the details. >> the senate passed that short-term debt limit increase last night after weeks of stalemate. it only happened after minority leader mitch mcconnell block
down from his threat instead, he provided support for a family buster. all democrats in favor republicans against, now the house will vote on the measure tuesday evening and the white house said president biden intends to sign it when it does alive on his desk but this bill increases the debt limit by 480 billion, treasury says it will last until september 3rd this was a little breather before the next legislative deadlines. democrats want to pass the infrastructure bill and the social spending package by halloween. government funding runs out september 3rd, the same day as the debt limit and key benefits expire and the federal relief fun and enchancer harnsed child credit as usual, congress is saving its work for the most inconvenient time possible. back over to you. >> they want halloween for the date that they actually passed the infrastructure bill.
both of those. they want the bet to be memorial day, too any more likely that they're going to debt it done by halloween? does it look like they've made movement here? >> well, at least there is a recognition this bill will have to be smaller. president biden told democrats in the 2 trillion range. joe manchin said e says he won't go above that 1.5 trillion there is room, at least both side, the moderates and progressives know they will have to give something up in order to get this done. >> ylan, thank you when we return, tesla officialed located its headquarters from california to texas. what does that tell us about the company's strategy and the years to come? we'll talk about it. we are counting down to the september jobs report. that breaking data is two minutes away stay ted u are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc
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higher again we're now at $55,000 it's up well over i should say 10% this week. one piece of news involving the crypto currency cynthia lummis, she reported a filing she bought between $50 and $100,000, trading back then about $56,000 that day the senator's purchase was disclosed outside the reporting deadline set by a 1212 law known as the stock act they said it was delayed due to a filing error. why are there these issues it's good she's disclosing it now. there have been issues with elected officials who seem not to file within the allotted time period >> coming up next, tesla's move to the bay area. gene munster will join us. ine big jobs number coming up
he said the company wasn't abandoning its operations in the western part of the country. >> we will be continuing to expand our activities in california it's not a matter of tesla leaving california our attention is to actually increase output for fremont and fast by 50% >> here to talk about tesla's move and what investors should be taking away from it the founder and managing partner. for investors, i don't know whether tax implications are, matter here as much as just a happy and readily available educated work force and room to expand in cheaper housing for all of your employees. all those things, you check those boxes in this move >> you nailed it, joe, the future, obviously, the competitive lines for tesla is twofold. it's ai engineers.
that's why they did ai day a month ago. they said the applicant went up 100x and separately manufacturing, which is keep land and some maybe easier policy regulatory environment i guess you should be long texas, it plays in hitting silicon valley i want to give you a quick data point i went on zillow and looked at a 5-mile radius for the palo alto headquarters the manufacturing is in fremont, but a lot of the work is in palo alto the average price per home per square foot was $2,000 a 2,000 square foot home is $2 million. that simply isn't sustainable. to your point, if austin, the
prices are up to the right i did not get a chance to look at price per square foot in austin i know it's less they got to bring in great talent an average ai engineer makes 2 to $250,000 a year so a $4 million house is really a hard tack to pull off. and tesla is making the move to accommodate that we will see other companies do it >> we have a business down there that plays into it can you talk about kathy wood moving to florida? i don't know, we are seeing a lot of relocations based sometimes on the tax situation is that reading too much night, gene, or >> i think that's probably a step that plays into a benefit to recruiting when you say you have lower tax rates so i think it does play into it.
i think it plays into the broader cost of living question. and again, we have seen that we can continue to work remotely, we can continue to move in different directions in terms of work and play, education i think that wear seeing that. and i think the states that are going to benefit the most are ones with lower taxez. ylan was quick to stay out of the political conversation on this, i think some of his views line up with some of the politics in texas as well. >> andrew wants to name it i haven't been able to ask you i asked phil le beau, tesla has disrupted so much of the way the business was done in the automobile industry. i just wonder, is it possible to disrupt the impulse buying, not impulse buy, wow, i love the look of that new car and the way they change it i want to get it because the s, how many years has the s looked the same?
it looked great to start everybody's copied it. does ylan musk never have to update it or get a car that just looks cooler than that people buy teslas for different reasons. that's been disrupted as well? >> i think it has, it has a mild update with the plaid version. to your point, is the substance of it unchanged for a decade since it began from is as far as what they can do to try to motivate other buyers as quickly as they have other products coming to they said this at the shareholder meeting. they will be doing a minibus they made jokes about a vw mini buchlts maybe that's a caravan maybe are you a big fan of outdoors, joe, they are coming out with an atv. it will be produces in texas they have a model 2 coming out when you think of sparking demand, i think they will have something for everybody down the
road they said they will have a car for every vehicle variant in the future >> hey, gene, real quick in terms of the tax story here, they will still pay taxes in california, if they are growing in the fremont area, they will continue to do that as well. i appreciate the point, obviously, aren't around the cost of living and what not in texas and the ability for them to have probably cheaper manufacturing. when it comes to ai, you were talking ai, do you imagine that most of those engineers will end upin texas or will actually maintain or stay in california >> i'm betting most will be in texas. i mean the ones that they have today are going to probably stick around a. majority will probably stick around, get if schools and they'll stay but i think when you talk about recruiting in this push, they're talking about increasing their ai engineers 4-to-5 x by the next several years, i suspect most will be at the new headquarters in austin >> okay. gene, are you done
>> i'm good to go. >> gene munster. >> we have a lot going on in seven minutes from now we got to move. >> we certainly do >> all right thank you. six minutes and 15 seconds, not that we're counting. when we come back, the number of the morning, it is september jobs we got our expert panel lining up, standing by. they will join us next with a preview and will give us instant alise at number actually hits. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc irks
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we are three minutes away from the government blemployment report let's bring in sarah malik oscar goldsby, the capital advisers chairman and now the chicago school business professor. a chief economist at adp kate morris for black rock school allocation team our very own steve leashman. we have a couple minutes 500,000 is the consensus there has been this idea maybe the number can be softer than that even if it is, it may not signal that people don't want to hire it. it may signal if employers can't
find employees at this point >> yeah. it's a very weird situation. you forever have to worry about the supply issue that's a big issue right now i don't think there is a huge issue of tremendous weakness, let me say, becky, predicting jobs in the pandemic has been really a futile attempt. >> great what's your prediction for this one? >> i'm in the 425,322 range. >> okay. we will run on the horn and continue this futile attempt to figure out what to an tis pace sarah, what number are you anticipating >> we see three factors driving employment the delta variant will be the heaviest weight. ekts preparation will be supported and the reopening of schools, we're under conkesensus a little wage inflation. unemployment kicks down a bit.
schools reopen to 5.1%. >> austin, how about you in. >> well, i was at 440. i thought i was going to be more pessimistic. that makes me the most optimistic one so far. i always think that the delta variant and how covid is doing is the thing that really drives the economy. we've seen some improvement. back in the reference week when the jobs number come from, it wasn't looking that good, so i think maybe the consensus is a little too high. >> mui, have you any optimism to 33 into this >> i do. on wednesday we saw legion hospitality took up a super hero cape to lead this recovery forward. i think as long as this industry is poised for growth, you are going to see solid numbers i'm at 475 private more than that for the total >> and kate, how about you again this is a number that may or may not be reflective of everything that was happening for the month. what we hear is the end of the month may be better than the
beginning. these numbers will capture the beginning of the month. >> i think we are all clustered here i'm at 465 the major thing i am focused on, though, is average hourly earnings i think the way story is the most important for 2022. we're looking for .4 increase month over month this is a strong pattern that's my number one focus. >> let's take a look at the board, you will see the dow futures up nine points things are coming down rapidly we have this jobs report steve what do you see? >> 1 noe94 i see 194 shouchlt august with your buys up a bit 366,000. let me go to the other, the jobless rate wow, a big decline 4.8%. 5.1 was expected let me go to the b-1 table and see if i can find where the jobs
were in this case, where the jobs weren't, is what we are trying to figure out, it was definitely a weaker number than expected with i think the factors enumerated before we went into the number of being responsible here you still have the covid issues. let me see, i got 194 overall, private is 317 it means there was a big decline in the government here i will go down to find the government area here government minus 123 with a big decline in local government education. so, i guess you had the addition in august, came off in september. that leisure and hospital, eh, 74,000 that's not the kind of numbers we need from that sector to drive the employment that we need i'm going to see if i can find retail here. i want real quick, nothing really going on in leisure and hospitality. declines in nursing. where else do we have declines
not any big declines here. not if numbers you need for people back to work right now. september now coming in weaker than august, which is revised higher i think that's the big number, the big story here now i have to sort of say, maybe this was outside or weaker than the number that keeps the fed on tap to taper although again, i will reiterate we have seen better numbers, the jobless rates and the high data is showing bett data in september. >> just the 123,000 jobs lost in local government education is that teachers things like bus drivers and people who would normally be working in cafeterias? i know our schools are fought doing lunches at this point because they're still weight >> you know, it's just so you know 123,000 in government 144,000 in local government education and, yeah, that's going to be the whom lot of folks who are hired by any local
government i think there is a bunch of seasonal stuff in there. that might be expectation of hiring that didn't happen. i'd have to look at the non-seasonal area. i am trying to find retail i want to see what's going on in that sector there. there it is, up 66,000 okay but again, this is one of the harder-hit sectors we're not seeing people come back to work in the kind of numbers that we're going to need to put to work, the 5 million or so find the 5 million jobs down from the pandemic. >> awesome a. key question for the marks has to be, does this put the fed's taper on hold? are we going to see it kick off next month or they will see we need one more month of data. what do you think? >> we might be back into a sibling where they keep saying what they want to do the data come in, they say, okay, we will start next month i think you are right, the market is going to, it's going to add question marks rather than add clarity steve, could you see in that
what happened to the labor force participation? it sound like the two survey itself may be diverged a bit one showing weak if the unemployment rate came down like that, are they showing there are a lot more jobs or more people dropped out of the work force >> yeah, a good question. >> you know, austin, i'm going to do that right now give me one second i need a little time to find the inflation rate. >> let me switch over. go ahead, you got the answer >> no, go ahead. >> you go ahead, i have to review data. >> kate, let me ask you about the market's reaction to this. futures were down, they ent up beforehand up 68 points. the futures down about 50 points if the market is thinking that this puts the fed taper on hold, why wouldn't you see a positive reaction from the marks? > markets? >> one of the big questions is the sustainability of the earning reports over the last couple quarters. you started off talking a little
about this paradigm shift. the main issue for the la bar market is supply and not dead manned for orkers. i'm hard pressed to come up with an industry that is actually not complaining about challenges they are facing in terms of the labor market i want to say as we kick off third quarter earnings, there are three specific labor questions to be asking as we look at the company report, which is how are they handling this shortage and labor, how are they discussing the wage pressure before the numbers came out, it's .6 month over month is very photoable wages are sticky what type of investments are companies making to the total cost it's not just the wages, right it's the benefits, everything else >> that's a very good point. steve you found that number? >> yeah. you know, that's funny you have lost an aunt he's a smart guy i intuited all this stuff. the labor participation rate
fell 61.6% so we did not attract additional people to the work force according to this separate, again all separate household survey we put more people to work, though, 526,000 so that's a more solid part of the report unemployed falling by 710,000. that's pretty, that's huge right there. those not in the labor force rising by 338,000. so a lot going on. i haven't had time to look at the demographics of who dropped out, who didn't come in, that kind of stuff. but it is interesting to me with the end of that extended unemployment benefits, we did not have additional people coming back, what is likely is people receiving those checks probably touted themselves as in the labor force anyway i would not expect it there. we did not see a huge influx i think this idea that some people retired maybe not not coming back is something we ought to get used to >> it may not be people retired.
it could be a care giver has to stay home if school hasn't gone steady or to the point that i can get to the work force. i can count on child support and child care. >> you know, we shouldn't forget that in september of last year, women left the work force at four times the rate of men and so those voo bottlenecks in child care are still there i think we do need to rephrase how we feel about supply and demand to pick up on kate's point earlier. we see job option and we see hires. but there are 10-to-15 steps in between, between the job posting and a hire and that each step along that way, there is a bottleneck and there is a huge logistics problem under way in the labor market when i was at the cstc, we studied the market prior structure, the financial markets inf infiniteum very detailed. no one has that approach to the stacks problem how do we get people back into
the market where is the logistics is it a labor shortage or a spill shortage where is it geographically i have to say by leisure and hospitality, it has been leading jobs growth. if it's not showing up in these numbers in the labor mark, then it really dampens the outlook for the jobs recovery. >> austin, are you convinced is this a logistics problem or do you think there is actually a much large -- i'm into this, i don't even know how to think about this when it comes to those who are quote/unquote retiring i also wonder whether there is a huge population that actually saved some of those checks earlier on that are now basically planning to live often the off them a little longer >> maybe they stave the checks the savings rate did go up pretty substantially in the beginning of the pandemic, but the savings rate has been coming
down rapidly we were hoping that would lead to a consumption become. really i think until we can get control of the spread of the virus, we might have multiple months that are disappointing like this. not just the logistics, which are problematic on a sort of a sect issor-by-sector basis but overall demand, if people can't go out and spend what you saw in the pandemic, it's periods like that, are tough for the economy. let's hope the downturn in the number of cases will persist and we can get back under control. >> the other question, if employers are paying more than they were before how much do they have to pay to get people back into the work force. that's what most leaders are thinking, how can i get enough people to actually come back to w work yes.
look i think that some of that is going to be related to conditions >> some of that related to the conditions of the virus, you seen especially in industries where you are exposed face-to-face to commerce or working closely with neighboring workers. those are the last place that people want to go back they say i'm not going back at minimum wage in an environment where i can get sick maybe if we improve on the virus, we will improve on that but the second you see that most of the conventional explanations, it's coming from ui, they don't work. when you ged get rid of the payments, you don't see the blowing back in of the labor force. i think it will be a tough period, broadly defined, we're having logistical problems where your work force is just like
suppliers of computer chips and other material >> hey, sarah. >> hey, andrew andrew >> one second, steve let me get sarah in quickly. we haven't gotten to her after the number yet the equities markets have recovered for the most part almost back before, the nasdaq is the one that's kind of taken offer since these numbers hit, maybe that's in part because we are thinking the fed may not taper quite as quickly as before it looks like the tenure came down in yields since then, too what do you think? >> the markets are running a little cold. it would be be positive for tech structural growers this does give the feds some breathing room to take baby steps towards tapering also one of the drags recently is yields have been moving up too far too fast it takes a breather.
that we should see more strong harm data such as continuing expansionary ism number. >> are you concerned that the nar joins for companies, if you start looking at earnings could get pressured because they will bring them back in and you did see hourly average earnings sharper than expected. >> definitely. we already have a margin issue we're running decade-plus highs. earnings season will be key from here the separate feed we see in the past are most likely behind us look for those companies leverage this reopening we think are coming the ones that can handle supply chain issues we like make the and starbucks and they have the scales to deal with supply chain issues hurting out there. they can beat earnings next year >> steve, what was your point? >> i want to real quick make sure everybody knows the private
sector added 317,000 jobs. not as big of a miss as it otherwise seems. i think what will happen, what may have happened over the course of this number being out is that education number, this 200,000 number is being discounted by the market it is almost certain going to be attributed to seasonal factors we had a big gain in july. that was a novelist and the 144 decline in september is almost certainly going to be related to season also. private sector, however, was okay not terrific but not as weak as the 200,000 top line number suggests i think the market is probably going to kick that in the bucket that said, we have seen weakening in the data, now we have to brace to watch the high-frequency data, to see if it's coming back at all. >> hey, austin, you know what the nay bobs of negativism will say. >> i thought you were in hiding. you let joe back in. >> elevated inflation and
anything la looks weak and the s-word gets brought up, stagnation, i don't know if it's on anybody's radar screen at this point the other thing i was going to say is, chipotle has this brisket deal going we should do a zoom. we should do a zoom. we should just get it out of the ways >> i will order, i will say, how much brisket do you have out there, bring it all out? >> do it on zoom we can wear whatever you opt or not wear at this point >> take your pants off, i'm calling this whole thing off. >> what do you mean taking them off? how do you know i got them on? what do you think? >> will anyone say stag? flation after this >> i am not make light of that one thing i will say is the
unemployment rate went way down, so in a way if they're saying stagflation. some will say, why are you saying stagflation if the market is coming down even though the numbers look week >> a limited time, the brisket, too. >> anything story adp incident the private sector did pretty well it wasn't as big of a miss these were government numbers, so maybe we should look for some of this? >> i do think that there is strength in certain factors. i think the wage growth actually reflects that strength, especially in high-paid jobs, wages are seeing competition effects. we still have about 5 million workers sidelined by our estimation that's 5 million private sector
jobs so what we'd expect is a much more robust gains month after month if, indeed, the demand is there i do think this path way in between is causing issues and getting people back to work. we talked ability women leaving. we talked about early retirees but there are men over 20, their participation rate is under 70%. we've never seen that before we have been there for months. so if there is something else going on in terms of the supply and i do think there are bottlenecks to that supply in getting it back into the markets. it's not just a seasonal driver because of education we need to reflect on what's keeping people out of the markets. i don't think it's a wage story. there with is something else going on. >> your take away for investors what they should think after this number, if there is any clarity here >> look, that's something they
were saying, which is around less pressure on rates and less pressure on multiples, especially in tech and the growther areas, being quite supportive for those sectors of the market i do want to say, we are expecting a lot more volatility throughout the course of the fourth quarter, though we will get payroll that doesn't quite meet expectations, some fed speak. we will get disappointing earnings that will be a lot of back and forth. there is a lot of uncertainty, not a lot of conviction right now. i say buckle your seatbelt and take advantage of opportunities when we have things to add to the high convictions and secular growers of the cash flow on the call. >> thank you very much, kate i want to thank our entire panel, sarah austin, nila and steve. don't miss the closing bill e bell with the economic adviser's chair. >> coming up, jim cramer will
give us his take on these job numbers, plus what investors need to beatinase wchg w approach the opening bell on wall street. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc that building you're trying to sell, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... don't just sell it. ten-x it. paola needs a parachute. so, salesforce customer 360 unites your marketing, sales, commerce, service, and it teams around her. so they can deliver a great experience from anywhere. ♪ (whistle) ♪
4.8% unemployment, jim not that far after armageddon, a world pandemic, but does this say anything about the fed does it give them more breathing room >> absolutely. >> it does >> yeah, jay powell sees this number, i'm sure he wants to saying to all the guise on the air say he's well behind and hyper inflation, he's saying, look at this, people are dropping out there's not enough job creation is what he's been saying as you said, people say stagf stagflation. give jay powell a break. we were looking for 500, he wasn't i think if we have one of those ridiculous press conferences he's in right now, all those people make fun and ask questions about why do people buy stocks and stuff, they would be silenced, because they have nothing to hueckle him with
>> we'll be reporting earnings in not too long of a time. does this say anything about the overall macro? >> i still think there are not enough corporations that are bringing people -- you know, kind of cajoling people back to work, so to speak. obviously teachers don't want to go in and get sick look, people are still thinking about dying. the only people that aren't are the europeans, they have solved the problem. i%ing that we have not, but jay powell says, you know what i'm staying the course therefore, the market should rally. he's not going to be in the way. >> yousaw samsung, i thought there was a chip shortage. what did they do, 28% or something? >> there's nothing they can do when you see that mannheim index spike, you know there's just not
enough cars. last night ford mexico, it's just every day there's upgrades in the union pacific, northern suv fox, they are automobile carriers, so some of the analysts are starting to think things will get better i'm notsure. i think things are not getting better yet >> it's jobs friday. i can't ask you about the eagles or the major league baseball, or anything, but there's some -- >> no, but i think mccaffery will play. i think mccaffery will play meaningful type time i think tepper didn't like that last loss. you know dave. tepper is a winner i wish i wasn't going up against him. >> all right good luck. he's pretty amazing. >> he's projected to get 27 points it's going to hurt me. >> thanks, jim see you in a few minutes. we want to remind you about the new cnbc investing club.
easy to sign up. see that little thing? just point at that, or go to cnbc.com/investingclub the code on the screen, as i said, will take you right there. magic. meantime, let's get the top market takeaways from the september jobs report. liz young at sofi this morning what do you make of this we're all trying to figure out what jay powell will think of this, but also how to get more people into the workforce. >> it wasn't a great wort win thing that did beat is hourly earnings there is obviously good things on the god and bad side. what i would focus is the 4.8 unemployment rate. that is exactly what the fed is projecting for the end of this year that means we have already
achieved their projected unemployment rate right now that they should expecting for the end of the year. this does show why jay powell gives him flexibility. they just said it was coming sooner, so now we have to look at the calendar, right we have another fed meeting on november 3rd we don't have another jobs friday until november 5th. they're not going to get more data before that next fomc meeting. i would expect them to back up a bit on this tapering timeline, but i think they have to start it before the end of the year, because inflation has not relaxed. >> how long do you think it lasts? where do you think the jobs are? what do you is happening with people >> how long do i think the labor issue lasts? >> yeah. yeah >> actually what we have started to hear from companies is they're not only quoting
supply-chain issues, but labor shortage issues. they can pass through some inflation. they can't pass through labor shortages. that's something that's going to stick them in the mud for earnings season. so how long does it last it lasts different lengths and sectors. leisure and hospitality is one we continue to watch as an issue. it's slowed down considerably. we're probably not going to get back to pre-pandemic levels. we won't get back for another seven, eight months. that's assuming it stays at this pace. >> do you have an explanation for it, though where did the people go, if you will >> i think there are structural changes that have happened first, a lot more early retirements. people have exited the labor force. that's why we see the tick down. childcare issues, people have not reentered because of that. we have the great resignation that we all keep talking about
i think there's structural issues and why there's a big mismatch of open jobs, but still unemployment persons. thank you for your perspective. >> thank you. a quick final look we are looking at the dow much 32 points after moving around. nasdaq up about 83 points. s&p 500 up about ten points. that is it for us right here on "squawk box. have a great weekend, everybody. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" is coming up right after a quick break l sd of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com paola needs a parachute.
♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm here with dave faber and jim cramer the premarket is north of flat, as september jobs estimates come down well below estimates. the ten-year yield is backing off the morning high, as attention turns to how the fed will read the data the economy adding less than half as many jobs as forecast in september, held back by the delta variant and a tight labor market. >> plus, cause it