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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  August 6, 2021 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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pre-market earnings moevers. plus, cnn fired three by coming to the office unvaccinated the big setback for return to work plans it is friday, august 6th, 2021 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is out today big day with what we are watching with the jobs report. ahead of that, the u.s. equity futures. they are flat. they are waiting to see what happens too. dow futures up less than a point. same story for the s&p nasdaq down 18 the nasdaq and s&p 500 set new records yesterday again. all-time highs
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we continue to watch that. right now, it looks like everybody is waiting for 8:30. two and a half hours to see what the fed has to say or the jobs report has to say and the fed may do as a result of that that certainly is playing out in the treasury market as well. right now, it looks like the 10-year note is yielding 1.245%. we are back above 1.2% again, a lot riding on what happens today with the jobs report and the adp report on wednesday which was weaker than anticipated. you saw downward pressure with the 10-year falling below 1.2% let's look at the "squawk stack" this morning. it gives you an idea of what is moving rea real estate and technology nasdaq at the all h-time high energy is down indicated a little bit up this morning. down 10% from the record high in the sector
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that is after three days of declines wti up .50% to below $70 to $69.44 a barrel. andrew. the bipartisan infrastructure bill in strcongrs up diedate and the cbo would win the deficit by $256 billion in ten years. that runs counter that the price tag would be covered by new revenue. members of the group say they expected the cbo analysis to differ from their own because of the repurposing covid aid which didn't kocount. rob portman and krysten sinema said the differences come because of the cbo and the way that the cbo limits what it can include in its formal score. there's going to be a lot of finger pointing given the
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conversations we had yesterday with senator ted cruz about this very bill. i think there's a lot of people who are on the hill that are fine with the bill -- this bill. the next bill, i think, which is really the negotiating chip. exactly. >> the crypto is a big deal. it is something that people are watching closely as we are, too. you see it down by about 1%. bitcoin back above 4$40,000. this is continuing as we negotiate in the existing bill of exactly what is happening here the white house weighed in on the battle taking place ov over competing cryptocurrency amendments it wants a broader definition of crypto broker. that provides more participants
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to report crypto gains for tax purposes the administration wasn't expected to weigh in on this late yesterday, it put out a statement that backed the tougher crypto reporting rules ahead of the block chain association blasted that move. it called the amendment anti-technology and anti-innovation, andrew. this is what we were just talking about. it is interesting to see if crypto took down the bipartisan deal i don't think it will. i think they will reach some settlement agreement the administration was not expected to weigh in >> i'm surprised maybe i'm not surprised the crypto industry is weighing in saying they don't want to be taxed. that is not surprising we should tell you hui sun now reporting that jpmorgan chase is giving access to six crypto funds in the past month. beginning to place private
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clients in crypto funds with ny dig. that started yesterday apparently late last month, the bank rolled out access to four funds from g grayscale and one from osprey funds. jamie dimon has been an out spoken skeptic of digital currency he called bitcoin a fraud that would not end well pressure has been building as clients ask for bitcoin exposure and rivals goldman sachs to offer to clients to some degree, a kskeptic of bitcoin. i think he is still skeptical, but not as -- people want to let them have it. >> if your clients want it, you
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will go there. he said people shouldn't be investing in treasuries. he would not buy them in he didn't have to you can buy those from there as well in the many time, elizabeth homes gave birth on july 10th after records obtained by cnbc the pregnancy delayed the trial on wire fraud and conspiracy prosecutors allege she deceived about the blood testing technology from the company. she pleaded not guilty when we come back, mixed signals for the jobs report. wall street estimates from 350,000 to 1.2 million steve liesman gets us ready for the number next. and the update on the hiring at restaurants like applebee's and parent companies "squawk box" will be right back. ♪♪
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welcome back to "squawk box. the count down is on to 45,000 payrolls in july the spread of wall street forecast is wide it will move around. ranging from 350,000 from wilmington trust to 1.2 million from jefferies
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steve liesman is joining us. >> hold on, andrew i didn't know you had that graphic. zkb bank 1.6 for the record zurich based bank. you have to up that thing. i didn't know you had the 1.2. wall street expecting blockbuster job growth the unemployment rate ticking down to the pandemic low of 5.7% if it is right, the strongest two-month gain since a year ago when millions came back to work. the signals leading up to this is mixed weak adp report on wednesday strong ism manufacturing and service reports were good. the hr software companies providing data, homebase and ukg suggest the job growth is moderate look at this from ukg. they have done a good job forecasting the strength or weakness of the jobs report. what you see here is that they
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have been strong in may. they had that right. sorry. strong in june and weak in may that's a pretty good number. there's supposed to be stronger than may, but not as strong as june according to this report. one metric we are monitoring is more women coming back to the work force they may have returned in july with the end of the school year in june. expectation is more return as soon as schools open in august and september. look at this data. 1.8 million women dropped out of the work force since february of 2020 that compares to 1.6 million men. the difference is bigger far more men in the labor force than women this is thought to be the need for mostly women to stay home to care for children and impact of the pandemic on the service sector we are looking for any impact of labor shortage is the reason for
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the difference the delta variant may have exploded too late where the survey was done at the beginning of the month along with the extra unemployment benefits rolling off in states. guys. >> steve, i had a question watching what senator manchin has said about wanting jay powell to pull boack on the excessive purchases and things out there. it is strange to see a democrat weighing out there and putting pressure on jay powell the first thing i thought, are you kidding me why not think about what you are voting for with the $1.2 trillion package you arehave and the $3 trillion package. the far left of the party wanting him to be more accommodating. this starts to ratchet up with the political games taking place as we get to the end of the year and the question if jay powell
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will receive a second term as fed chairman what do you think as you watch all of this from your perspective? >> all of that is wrapped up inside -- it is a complicated package, becky, because manchin voting for the stimulus and urging the fed to ease back is because he wants this space. i think what is happening, becky, people are looking at our poll and our polls that show the american public is very concerned about inflation. we had the report yesterday showing of what is more important? inflation or unemployment? 3 to 1 people are concerned about inflation. that is the way the political winds are blowing. the fed failed to accommodate the rise in fiscal policy. now they are getting blow back from people and the politicians reading the tea leaves
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i don't know if you want to call this -- the end of the idea of powell coming back, but i think he will. he has a chance to come back the inflation has to end up being temporary by the time that consideration happens. >> what the heck is temporary? inflation has to go away by december is that what we are talking about for them to say this is transitory who knows what will happen when so much of this is on shortages? we have been reading how asia manufacturing is not going to be able to keep up and chip shortages continuing because of the shutdowns with the new delta variant running through. >> if you follow the rhetoric, be becky, what has been happening is they extended the time of transitory it was originally the fall i dpeguess it was a few weeks ao powell started saying over a six-month period what they want to see and they
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will feel more comfortable, i believe, if the inflation rate begins to descend in the fall and december you move from 3% to 4% back down to the 2% range. they extended it and given themselves more time it gets back to the report i talked about the people come back to work there are still labor shortages out there. that is driving up wages you don't have people to make stuff. that drives up prices as well. if we get schools open and normalcy in the labor market and you are right, the delta variant is a wild card >> steve, thank you. we will see you later. we have the big jobs report at 8:30 a.m. eastern. joining us for more on this is greg branch. managing partner at veritas and rebelia farouki. let's start with rebelia
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consensus is for 845,000 jobs. you are looking for 875,000? >> that's correct. at this point, you are looking for a strong number and fine tuning it up to the adp data we don't generally do that we look for job growth to pick up in the near term which results in shortages unemployment benefits and health fears and it really is child care as these factors diminish, it will pick up it is unclear whether the disruption will go away with the july report. i would not be surprised if the number is a little lower i would not be surprised if the number is higher as you mentioned, there is such a wide range of uncertainty here that is apparent in the forecast range as well. >> however, greg, look, we may not be surprised if the numbers
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hotter or cooler coming into this the market, probably will react, one or oway or the other we saw this with adp with half expect expectations there was downward pressure with yields how much is the market going to read into this how much reaction will we get one way or the other >> i think actually it will be muted this time around adp was before the jobless claim numbers. jobless claim numbers came in at 345,000. that demonstrated that the delta variant is not affecting the currently employed we are early in the story. i expect to see deterioration in the coming weeks if we don't get a better handle on it. in that context, the delta variant is not moving above. we need to move above the 6% of
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americans working or looking for woke work that is where delta will rear its head will it diminish the pool of workers we expect in september when they lose the fed benefits and when the kids are back in school that is something we won't know yet. if we start to see deterioration in the weekly claim numbers, that is more important than what we see today if it is plus or minus 10%. >> rubeela, the fed is facing pressure, we hear on a daily basis whether they move to move sooner rather than later if this numbers comes in hot, what does that do in terms of putting additional pressure on the fed? the delta variant is out there and they are looking to wait and see what happens the inflation is an istssue and democrats are weighing in. >> the fed is getting pressure from all sides even from within. there is a lot of disagreement,
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i would say, discomfort with inflation. i think if the number comes in at 1 million plus or 1.6 million at the high end of the range, i think the pressure builds on them to move faster. i am actually surprised and puzzled at the different messages we are getting from the fed. chair powell is sounding a dovish note. you have the governor who is sounding hawkish i think there is a lot of range of opinion s. i think if the july and august numbers are much stronger, the pressure builds. does it matter if they announce in september or november i don't think so they will taper. it is coming it is a matter of markets. it is a matter of when the decision is announced. >> greg, equity markets keep
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hitting highs despite the return of the virus with the delta variant. that is in part to earnings which are better than anticipated. >> right we had record third quarter earnings with 85% of companies beating estimates. which is what we expected. you recall for months consensus was under estimating the earnings power of the companies and in some cases, we had estimates at 60% of pre-pandemic levels through this cycle, we caught up to that. you know, when i look at the back quarter, not so certain estimates are too high in places the market has been doing what it should with the posture from the fed that they will do nothing to combat the inflationary pressuring royilin our economy. and 85% of companies beating upward revisions the market has done what we expect
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the question is what is the back half growth for the end of the year at the end of the day, the trading partners and sourcing partners and countries much less progressed in the vaccination curve. taiwan at 1.8% these are economies that are retrenching in the shutdowns and our colleague indicated continues that acute inflationary pressure for duration longer than we expected we can't keep moving the goal post with transitory i think our supply chains will be impacted for the rest of the year >> greg and rubeela, thank you for your time. see you soon. coming up after this, we will talk about this one cnn firing three workers for coming to the office unvaccinated we will dig into that story right after the break. as we head to the break, check out shares of robinhood. relatively calm after a wild week of trading this morning the stock looks like it would
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open at 4% higher after a little bit of a mini plunge yesterday after it's huge rise the stock started the day yesterday up 100% for the week fell more than 27% during yesterday's session. right now, we're at $53.10 we're right back after this. competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world. this is lisa. she's a posh virtual receptionist. when you're busy, she'll answer your calls and assist your clients.
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friars, send word at once. yes, m'lord. welcome back to "squawk box. cnn fired three employees who came to work without getting a covid vaccine. in an email to employees jeff zucker said they violated the honor system to test they were sfl vaccinated and did not require those who come to the office or
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work in the field with other employees need to be vaccinated. up to now, workers coming in on a voluntary basis. company targeting september 7th as the date to come back to the office zucker said that date has been postponed. becky, this is one of the moments. there is a big question in the business world not just should you require vaccines, but then how are you going to enforce it? what will you do is there a grace period? what will happen jeff zucker saying this matters and it is serious. >> there's a lot of questions. i think we have all seen through the pandemic there are rules in place and places where they are strictly followed and in places where they are not some places were not very on top of things in terms of making sure they were following the mandates put out there
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we all have seen and heard about places where that's happened clearly not the case here. my guess is there will be push back at least from some places at cnn because it was voluntary to show up at work maybe there were people who thought it was another place where things were lax. jeff zucker saying no, no, no. this is clear. you can't show up without that i think we will see more places that will require vaccines, particularly as the emergency use authorization is moved to full authorizeation. it will happen quickly with pfizer and moderna, too. that may alleviate the issues employers considered before. >> always an interesting question how keen the employees are. if it had been, you know, a primetime star anchor, for example, would it come to the same conclusion? we don't know who the three
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employees are. i'm not saying they are important or unimportant i have to imagine that must weigh in the decision, you think. maybe it shouldn't >> if he is laying down the law and setting rules, it shouldn't matter who it was. >> it shouldn't. i'm saying in the practical universe, if you got into a situation like that as a boss, where you -- if your great rainmaker was the person, what would you decide to do i don't know >> this sends a clear message for what the policy is from here on out. >> there are a number of business leaders as i have been talking to over vaccine mandates look, we can say we will do it, but how do we evnforce it and maybe what do we do? maybe jeff zucker is the model unchartered territory. >> there are lots of models. pretty different feelings in different parts of the country
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and in different businesses, too. i think there is going to be lots of models going forward this is a pretty clear one that says zero tolerance policy here is the proof. i don't think anybody will have questions from cnn from here on out. >> you think there is a lawsuit? >> um, i don't know. it seems like you can get a lawsuit for just about anything. >> that's true that's true. the question is if it is a winning law you suit when we come back, the ceo of dine brands talks about hiring at restaurants. we will hear from the parent of applebee's and ihop next. and as we head to break, let's look at the s&p winners and losers
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" on this jobs friday checking futures right now mostly flat. of course, everybody waiting to see the big number dow up 15 points 16 points. s&p 500 flat marginally up. nasdaq off 24 points becky. and as andrew mentioned, we are expecting the july jobs numbers in a couple of hours one number they are watching as a bellwether of the recovery are restaurants. joining us with the finger on the pulse of the industry is john payton. the ceo of dine brands the parent company of ihop and applebee's just out with earnings yesterday that beat the street on the bottom and top line. john, thanks for being here today. >> good morning, becky excited to be here we have good news to share about the last quarter. >> obviously stronger than expected numbers i think that comes as a big
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surprise particularly when people start thinking about the industry and challenges it is facing first of all, hiring not easy to get people in. yo i sdpeguess you have to pay mor get people in. and creeping inflation tell me what you saw during the quarter. >> it has been a challenging few weeks. you are absolutely right as we become more and more focused on the delta variant and learning about the implication, it has been a unique moment in time a time when we are focusing on covid in the way we didn't expect, we also posted a really strong quarter americans came back to restaurants the last quarter both applebee's and ihop gained overcome petcompetitors. applebee's and ihop at 95%
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at the time of the uncertainty in the marketplace, both brands performed well because americans have returned to restaurants in q1 and q2. >> has that been a bigger concern? 12k >> as we look at the period before delta became a concern in june and july, we have not seen a change in patterns nationally or in hot spots across the u.s. >> how do you deal with staffing is it difficult to get people in or are you paying more money >> it is difficult staffing is a challenge for us and the industry what i can tell you is nationwide again for both brands, applebee's and ihop, wwe are at 85% of fully staffed. some restaurants are better. some restaurants are a little worse.
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franchisees who do most of the hiring 98% of the restaurants are owned and operated by others, they are doing things like hiring incentives they put in place bonuses. a current team member refers a family or friend and wages in back of house and front of house are up $1, $2 or $3. what is interesting is despite the short staffing in many of our restaurants, our guests satisfaction scores, becky, are as high as they ever been and reached pre-pandemic levels. that tells me the team members we have that they are so proud and happy to be back at work and welcoming americans back to the restaurants that they are delivering strgreat service. americans are understanding of the stress of restaurant workers and other frontline workers. what is really interesting is tips are up this year versus 2019 americans have come back and they are generous.
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>> good. they should recognize what those people who are working are doing for them that's good to hear. your customer satisfaction levels are up. what about staffing satisfaction levels do you do surveys for the people working on the line and ask what they think >> yes to be clear, at dine brands, we did employee satisfaction surveys for the 69 restaurants we own our franchisees do it for the 3,500 restaurants they own in the 69 restaurants we own in north carolina and south carolina, we had the best engagement scores we had in years. we interpret that the same way that we interpret americans tipping well which is that people are happy to be back at what they love doing after a year of being locked up in their homes. despite the uncertainty we have seen in the last couple weeks. >> john, let me ask you, as a company that has mostly franchisees, i can understand how you guys are doing really
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well are the franchisees doing well, too, if they are paying more on an hourly basis and if they are the ones really hit by the h higher inflation and food costs? >> our franchisees emerged from the pandemic, becky, in very strong financial condition many of our franchisees are large companies and have the resources to weather the storm we work closely with them to help them manage their food costs and labor. i'll give you an example when it comes to purchasing, the cost of pork and chicken and paper products and eggs are up this year 4% to 5% applebee's and ihop are a joint venture of the purchasing co-op. that co-op purchasing $2 billion a year that flow through the restaurants. we have a decent sized footprint in the market to enable us to do
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the best to manage the availability of the product and price of product it helps the bottom line when the top line has been very good the past two quarters. >> i'm trying to get at the idea of how much to use you as a proxy for restaurants at large you have 69 restaurants you are managing you are getting money from the franchisees on the other parts does the money you get from the franchisees, is it effected by the higher labor cost or effected by the higher costs for food or is that something they eat and you still get your cut >> the way the model works is franchise fee is paid as a function of revenue. the franchisees are primarily responsible for costs. what i can tell you in terms of the health of the franchisees is that they are -- they are very enthusiastic about the state of both brands. the franchisees are enthusiastically leaning into the two robust summer marketing
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campaigns. ap applebee's teamed up with disney and promoting "jungle cruise" and ihop with a new commercial coming out in the end of the year the franchisees are leaning into the marketing plan and that is a confidence of business. >> regionally, what do you see as customer demand is it an issue where some parts of the country people are willing to go out or others are cautious or everybody wants to get out and they had their fill of covid restrictions? >> i believe the latter. when we look at the national data for both brands, as i said, performing better than 2019. the one distinction we see depending on the geography of the country, guests are more likely to wear masks versus not. that is the distinction. >> what are you doing, if
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anything do you have company wide mandates with masks or vaccinations for employees >> we do from the dine perspective, which incorporates the corporate offices which is 500 people and 3,000 plus people in the restaurants, the policy is the same which is we are heavily recommending and i'm urging almost every week our team members to become vaccinated we have a financial incentive for vaccination. we have pto. we pay for the four hours to get the vaccination. we are giving significant credit to reduction in the health premiums if you get vaccinated one thing we will do in a week is partner with walgreens in north carolina and south carolina and sending walgreens mobile clinic to do covid and flu vaccines at restaurants for team members as well as our guests >> great john, i want to thatnk you for
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your time today and thank for coming on so quickly after the quarter. >> appreciate it we are happy to be here. dinner and i movie, becky, $25 at applebee's, you get htickets for "jungle cruise." >> already seen it >> number one movie in america. >> thanks. > >> becky, before we go to break. clarification on the conversation about cnn and the firings with jeff zucker one of the unique things he said, he said he was firing them for lying not for not taking the vaccination. for lying about not taking the vaccination. some people say that's splitting hairs. >> it's not. >> if you are talking lawsuits and the like it is interesting. >> if it is voluntary to come into the office, but only come in if you are vaccinated, i understand that point. i love to know more details.
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you can also imagine a scenario where somebody's manager said we need you to come in. okay i'll come in have you been vaccinated sure, i've been vaccinated >> that's it. >> maybe they had covid and natural immunity i don't know enough about it maybe i should shut up >> we will see we're going to go to a break we'll be back in just a moment today's big stock movers later, expedia ceo peter kern will join us talking about the deltvaana rit impact on travel and so much more reminder, you can watch or listen to us live anytime on the cnbc app back after this. >> announcer: squawk ceo call is sponsored by truist wealth where meaningful relationships matter most.
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welcome back to "squawk box. beyond meat shares falling the company with a loss mof 31 cents a share. beyond said pressure on the margins from higher cost of labor and freight and expansion in marketing guidance for the quarter fell short. food service sales growth
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levelled off because restaurants retstocked during the second quarter. the ceo told analysts that restaurants are conservative with orders because of the delta variant rise and shortage of willing workers. shares virgin galactic will increase to $450,000 per seat. 450 k, becky is that changing your view >> no, thank you >> the price is coming down. not in our territory yet >> it has to be lower. i'm not interested in going up right now. i like things here earth is a great place i'm fine staying on ground >> no price. no price. >> not now i wouldn't say never
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i feel comfortable saying not for a very long, long time not interested not on my bucket list. how about you? >> 450 is still high for me. i wouldn't do it yet i need to see a couple more successful launches. >> is that because you're cheap or you're not interested in going up for me, i don't care >> combo you know me. a, i like a good deal. i need it. >> got ya' >> don't want to pay retail. i'm worried. i'm a little anxious >> me, too when we come back, check out the most mentioned stocks on wall street. robinhood by far getting the most attention we're digging in to how yto trae the world's newest meme stock. that's next.
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women back to "squawk box. robinhood's roller coaster ride continues. shares are still well, though, above the $38 ipo price. in the green this morning as well joining us to discuss robinhood's status is the reporter at the "wall street journal," good morning to you. you know, i have asked vlade tenev what have you thought what happens if you're a meme stock he said he hadn't thought about it a week later, that's what's happened what are you hearing and seeing among the retail investor community right now? >> sure. i mean, it's a fascinating situation, as you said you know, the company that really paved the way for this generation of meme stock traders has now become a target of that. i think the fascinating thing about this week is it really
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cemented the playbook for these types of stocks. we're seeing a giant move higher, a frenzy of options activity, with many trader eyeing the bullish options, and just an insane amount of momentum building around these stocks a lot of individual investors were look to go capture that this week. >> the question is, we did have an amazing rise, and yesterday we saw a bit of a fall has this become a sort of levitating stock for forever for some period of time? do we think the secondary sale that was announced yesterday weighed on it? what happens next? that's what everyone is wovenering, right? at its peak, robinhood's market value surpassed that of intercontinental exchange. the owner of -- which is pretty
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remarkable for a company that ipo'd last week, and everyone is offendering how long this last i think a property of professional traders thought that gamestop stock would tumble, that amc stock would tumble that hasn't happened yet a lot of these moves have caught people off-guard and stuck around for a lot longer than we would think. >> the other piece of this is, how many, quote/unquote meme stocks can exist there's a view this is being driven by retail and there's only so much capital that the retail community has to devote at any one time to a particular stock? is that true in? >> it's tough to tell, but it's clear that one of the most
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popular trades recently has been a momentum trade, one that individual investor as well as institutional, have piled into i think it's clear that options trade sergeant here to stick around retail investors seem to be hanging on to the market, even though things have opened up. >> is it unfair so say this is not trading on fundamentals. is that an unfair thing to say >> as i pointed out its market value did surpass the intercontinental exchange, and many people point to stocks like robinhood right now and sea, hey, this is a bubble, this is unsettling, this is bound to pop, but again i think these things have had a surprising amount of staying power. >> gunjan, we appreciate it.
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it's a fascinating story, and we'll have more on this wild ride in the next hour as very well have a great weekend. we're going to talk to the for former s.e.c. chairman jay claden, and peter kern will be with us in the next hour as well we'll be right back. u don't hav. that's why insurers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud they can use ai to help predict client needs and get the data they need to quickly design coverage for each one. businesses that want personalization and speed are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm. nice bumping into you.
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the market records roll on, and the s&p and nasdaq hitting new highs. investors gearing up for the key monthly jobs report. that's coming up. plus vaccine mandates, mask mandates and rising number of delta cases. what it means for business, travel and your money. we'll hear from the ceo of expedia, as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc on this jobs friday i'm andrew ross sorkin along
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with becky quick joe is off today we'll show you the equity futures, but all may change in just about an hour and a half's time right now the dow would open up about 15 points higher, s&p 500 a little over a pint, the nasdaq down about 22 points we do have a couple headlines. we are less than 90 minutes away from the government's july employment report, with the unemployment rate falling. you'll recall, though, wednesday's adp report fell well short of predictions, and the gap -- the -- i hate to say it the delta, given where we are in the world, between some of these estimates are huge and wide. we'll see where things land in about 90 minutes' time the fast expected to lay out a strategy for booster shots by early next month, according to
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the "wall street journal," which says that the white house is pushing for fast action. the concern that people who were moon the earliest to be vaccinated could need booster shots and very soon. spirit airlines continues to struggle, cancelling more than half of its flights since yesterday. it had canceled over 1700 flights as it deals with staffing shortages and technical issues and bad weather as well so we're going to be keeping an eye on spirit. spirit's been -- i don't want to say a casualty of some of the issues of this period. american airlines, becky, as well has been cancelling flights. >> they can blame it on the bad weather, i'm sure that plays a role, but i'm sure some airlines have suffered more than others it gets down to which airlines can staff properly, which ones are anticipating how many flights they're going to need,
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how many have kept pilots trained. once you furlough a pilot, you can't just flip a switch and have them back in. they have to have training hours before they can go back on so some airlines have managed it better than some others. >> yes and, by the way, also raises all sorts of questions about some of the taxpayer bailouts and what they did with the money, whether they spent it properly, in terms of operationalizing and be ready to bring the economy back online, if you will. clearly spirit is struggling with that. >> i keep coming back to the cnn question, about whether workers should be fired for not being vaccinated, when the policy in the company is to be vaccinated. >> right. >> you know, i keep coming back to t, we don't know everything about it, but i know of situation after situation where employees are told, nah, just check it off on the box, just say this, just say that.
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i heard about another situation, where somebody works in new york every day on the form you're asked to fill out, have you left the state of new york in the last ten days. well, this person lives in new jersey their boss just told them, you know, lie on the form. you wonder what kind of pressure gets put into these things jeff zucker is clearly set ago clear line, if you're not vaccinated and you don't tell the truth about that, you will not be continued to be employed. so i think this will kick up lots of questions across the country. >> you're getting sympathetic, it sounds like. >> i think it's fair game where there's a situation that everybody has to be vaccinated, but when you have a policy that it's voluntary to show up at work, you'll have clear situations where some employees who can choose to stay home. other employees who absolutely have been to in the workplace.
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there are some pretty -- i just know it, from watching what i have seen in different places, talking to other people, where the rules are there for a lot of people as a cya for management, and it's a wink and nod for people who go along with it. >> i'm going to take jeff's side on this one. >> i think it's very fair to do it i think it's serious i would love to see vaccine mandates in our workplace. i think it's fair, and i try to look at this from the perspective of people in reality coming through this when others got to stay home >> there is an issue about the divide between those who worked in the office and who didn't, no question >> there is. >> but i think he laid it out pretty clearly from the beginning.
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did every other manager also go along, saying you don't have to come into the workplace, but i need somebody today, because i'm short staffed? >> we'll find out whether that detail exist if a manager told someone to lie on the form, then it changes the dynamic. >> i'm not saying that happened at cnn it was from another friend, but you hear it all the time, people who lay out the rules in some places, but wink and gnod. so this clearly sends a message. i think you're going to be very clear with the rules from here on out, in every workplace >> yep >> in the meantime, let's look at what's moving in the premarket. for that, dom chu joins us. >> i was listening intently. i've had that conversation so many times with people i know, just what the conditions are, and what it's like to be in the office and what it's like to work with other people around,
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but a huge move for sure on the cnn's part from a sector perspective this week, an being mix on what's moving the the best performing sector in that pan, utilities and financials you can see good performers. meanwhile, the biggest laggards have been energy and materials, which by the way, down about 1.5% one of the worst performing s&p performing stocks premarket is expedia, after they reported a bigger than expected loss last quarter despite better than expected revenues. revenues tripled over the same time last year gross bookings were eight times from a year ago, no surprise
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there. >> the ceo says the company is already feeling an impact on the delta variant on its trends. we'll check on robinhood shares, roughly up 5%, 225,000 shares of volume, after losing a quarter of its volume yesterday. some traders are pointing to the upside gains, but driven in part by the start of options trading, and then, of course, news of insiders planning to -- knocking things down yesterday. for the six days, guys, it's been a public company. the average trading volume on a daily basis has been 85 million shares, according to data from think or swim, the question is whether there's enough options trading volume to generate the overgentleman trading volume we're seeing, but it's certainly a big factor behind seeing that
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surge on wednesday. >> it gets dizzying to try to keep up with the big up and down days, but the stock is up 42% from its ipo >> the issue will be whether or not -- we're continues to see exchanges add more expiries. if you do start to get more traders involved, and we saw it with the meme stocks, many times some of those types of traders will use options contracts to take views on this particular stock. if it does do that, does it contribute more to the volatility it will be interesting to see whether or not traders use the meme stock phenomenon that we saw earlier this year as a blueprint or a road map to how robinhood will trade in the coming days. that's going to be something i'm going to be curious to watch. >> thank you, dom. we'll see you a bit later this morning. >> you got it. when we come back, the
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vaccine and mask mandates rages on we'll talk about mow companies are planning to bring back workers. and later, jay clayton on the public debut, and the share's wild re.id "squawk box" will be right back. hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you goove the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.
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this morning cnn has fired three employees who came to work without getting a covid vaccine. jeff zucker said they violated the honors system, which -- saying it's a zero policy. up to now, workers had been coming into the office on a voluntary basis. the company was targeting september 7th as the official return to office date, but that date has now been postponed. so many other businesses are starting to postpone the return to work as well. tom imling founder and ceo of, and numbs reporter kate kelly, thank you both for joining us this morning we want to get straight into the discussion one is offices across the country are rethinking this
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post-labor day return to the office i want to talk about what that means, but i want to talk about the idea of enforcement. here we have a situation where a lot of companies have been thinking about should they mandate vaccines into effect, and if we do, can we enforce it? how do we enforce it jeff zucker clearly saying, enough is enough, we're enforcing it interestingly, it wasn't just that they weren't vaccinated clearly i think the real issue, or at least the legal issue, is that they lied about it. tom, what do you think >> i think jeff zucker's problem is called jeff toobin, because it's not equal to how you hold people accountable for lying and poor actions number two, i believe people could have worked remotely companies are sanity you will be fired if you're not vaccinated they're saying you can't come into the office unless you're vaccinated delta variant or no delta
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variant, we'll see, but for the office, for now, vaccinated only no one is stopping anybody from working or earning a living. >> tom, though, how do you feel about this, "the washington post" announced a plan effectively what is a no vaccine/no paycheck program. this is not -- it's almost irrespective of the office policy, from what i understand i think you're going to start to see other companies institute similar plans, eye specially companies who think they're mission driven and want to protect employees whether they come to the office or not. >> i think it's an okay problem. i think it's a sit -- or okay solution to the problem. companies can do -- they're not discriminating against people because of the color of their skin, their religious beliefs. what they're saying is there is a global pandemic. because we've gotten to the point that there are vaccines, life has returned pretty much back to normal for people. then we get people saying, this isn't fair
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well, the good news is we have the lowest unemployment rate we have seen in so long that people can get a job someplace else companies are doing this for the safety of the majority of their employees. that should be applauded if this had happened any other time in history, it would have been grass laze, you're standing up for what's right, but dads there's so much political divisiveness that people want to throw -- >> kate kelly, you've been covering the wall street banks for many years they have been the most aggressive for getting people back in the office much earlier than many other industries, and now we have a situation where the delta variant is with us have they changed their plans? do you expect them to materially change their plans >> yeah, we're starting to see the rollback already, andrew, starting yesterday with the fact that blackrock and wells fargo said they'll delay their fuller mandate to return to the office
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from an early september time frame to an early october time frame. now, that's only a month it doesn't make a huge difference what i'm curious is whether that has been to say rolled back even further because of the delta variant, and you have what is essentially at the vanguard of this return to office, which is goldman sachs and j.pmjpmorgan there are exceptions, but since earlier this summer, they have wanted that to happen. the enforcement issue is interesting. it variation from company to company. if you're not going to enforce the policy, in a way, why have it firing somebody may be extreme, and i don't know all the details, but maybe you suspend somebody for a while, maybe they have two weeks unpaid, what have you, but if you're not going to enforce it in some way, people may not honor the rule there are different ways to do it
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at goldman, for instance, you have to show proof of vaccination, and if you're not vaccinated, you may work in a separate area and may be subjected to stiffer masking requirements than others. >> kate, one of the other things i keep hearing about is that some of the big banks and other institutions that want people back are going to ramp testing programs back up for example, my understanding was that goldman sachs and blacbl blackstone had started to scale back testing programs, but now we're starting to see breakthrough cases are going to bring back tests do you think test sergeant a lon - test sergin test serg is long term. >> one of the them talked about testing on site, and reviving some of those programs, so i
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would think it's a natural progression to see more of that. certainly in some parts of the country, it's never really gone away i know that my children had to get covid tests before they could go to camp this summer you're right, blackstone early on, about a year ago or maybe less than a year ago, they had they mandatory weekly saliva tests before you could get cleared to go into the office that week. >> back to this idea of this not being a requirement for work, that everybody gets to work anyway i don't think that's really true i think part of what's hang here is just this inequality between workers who are allowed to work at home and those who you can't. you can say it's voluntary, but there are some jobs that could by done from home. i think about here, where anchors and reporters have been allowed to work at home, so have managers if they really want to do that, but you have people who are makeup artists, camera
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operators, there are a certain number of employees who have to be there to do their jobs. that's where it feels uncomfortable, where you're saying on top of the fact you're probably not making the same wages as the managers, on top of a lot of other issues, you have to come in, do the commute every day, you have to be vaccinated and everyone else doesn't. >> right now, becky, that is clearly an issue i would love to hear tom's thought on it, but you're right. the nature of some jobs is they have to be done in person. david add goldman sachs, would say, this is an aberration, a work at home, that he's looking to correct that's a paraphrased version of what he said it's a way to, as fairly as
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possible, mete out enforcement >> i think there will be a huge white collar/blue collar divide. they're going to say not only do i have to come in, be vaccinated, but you get to work on the beach in florida and thes in in utah and all these other places, and i'm here every day eventually if it continue this is way, you'll have the service workers, the blue collar workers that will stand up and say, i want to work can be remember how tough the employment market is to find these people, to say i want to work at a company where everybody comes in if you have to drive people that way, that's a huge difference. we haven't seen that hit a peak yet. >> tom, one of the things we have seen right now is actually this breakdown between white collar and blue collar in a different way with the man daze. walmart, for example, has said, you know what?
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our corporate workers, you're required to have the vaccine, we're doing that, but if you work in one of the stores, in a distribution center, you don't why? because there's a view they can get compliance in the office, but there could be a walkout, or worse, in the stores. >> no doubt about it we also have a problem finding hourly workers everyone is try to go balance this if unemployment were at 9%, andrew, there wouldn't even be a conversation, because anybody would be squirming for any shot they could get and they would get a shot in the arm every morning to go to work. it's only going to get bigger. i heard what becky said in an earlier segment, once the government authorizes fda approval of the vaccine versus emergency usiage, there will be less excuse there, and we may see a bit of this turn >> one of the pieces -- you're
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starting to see this developing trend, even in new york city with mayor de blasio that you have to take away some of people's abilities to do things they said to do to incentivize them i know that thinking from government makes people uncomfortable, but the reality is we have a resurgence, the delta variant is concerning, certainly concerning to these corporations what we have had is a segment of people who have not been vaccinated for a variety of reasons, some perhaps health reasons, concerns about, as tom said, the lack of form at authorization, long-term authorization, but some because they're hesitant, maybe they've been given misinformation, so now you have, once again corporations potentially at the van guard of what really is a cultural or social issue, saying we need people to be vaccinated for the greater good rightly or wrongly, i think it
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will be a feature of the next leg of this thing. >> we are going to leave the conversation there, though this debate is going to continue to rage on we hope to continue this debate with both of you over the next days and weeks thanks, guys have a great weekend. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you. on the other side of this break, robinhood bouncing back a little we're going to talk to the former s.e.c. chair jay clayton about the stock's wild ride and the retail investor. in the meantime, here are the futures ahead of the jobs date, set to be released at 8:30 this morning. we are back after this go aflac!!! what the heck, troy - that's not your kid! the aflac duck is just covering for sophie. same way he got me money to help cover her hospital bill when my health insurance didn't pay for all of it.
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back to school set to begin for many students in just a few weeks.
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teachers are heading into another challenging year kate rogers has a look at how the year is shaping up kate >> hey, andrew, good morning we've been tracking the nationwide teachers shortage for year, long before the pandemic, but covid will likely exacerbate the situation. nearly 80% reported feeling job-represented stress last year, according to a recent poll from the american federation of teachers now, in florida, governor desantis said schools cannot enforce mask mandates, >> i have no problem wearing a mask, making sure that i'm safe, hence my family is safe, you know, washing hands, all that stuff. this could have been in the rear-view mirror or awful close,
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if common sense, you know, had been used. >> now, the threat is that if broward were to go through with the mask mandate as planned, the state could pull funding, and gard said that could exacerbate the teacher shortage there, but not all parents want masking mandates a group held a rally again masks for kids in school just this week. >> it's like the finish line keeps moving you know, if we do this, then it will be over, oh, no, now if we do this, it will be over notify if we do this, this will be over. what are we teaching our kids, you know, there's no end >> now, andrew, you can see a lot of push/pull between some of the parents, the teachers, the schools, but that shortage issue did hit 100,000 positions. where things stand now, even
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potentially worse. >> before you go, where do big teachers unions stand? we talked about it earlier in the week, but it looks like it may be shifting. >> yeah, definitely, randy weingarten did say she was leaving it open to a mandate about 90% of that teachers union have been vaccinated they've been touring to get all parents and teachers on board for the vaccine. that news coming out yesterday that could signal a potential shift there. >> indicate rogers, have a great weekend. when we return we'll speak to jay clayton on robinhood's public debut, and the wild ride in their shares in the first full week of trading as we head to a break, shares of didi are riding after a bloomberg news report saying it's considering giving up
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welcome back, everybody. the company earned well above the$1.67 consensus estimate. it was helped by strong growth in the international business. even though you're looking a the it unchanged here, i'm looking at a bid of 5063 and ask of 51.20 after closing at 49.53 however, it's not the only company that seems to be helped by this. shares of the unrelated meme stock amc entertainment also traded up after this report. shares of rob rob are down after closing it's gone from falling from the $38 price all the way up to $53.30
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jay clayton joins us it's good to have you here today. you're a former s.e.c. chair, somebody charged with looking out for investors. where maybe a company doesn't trade in line for fundamentals but the stocks have had -- what do you think about what you see? >> well, becky, nice to be back. i think a number of things as we've talked about before, retail investors, being more involved in our markets, i think everybody likes that look, if you live to 65 today,
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you're going to lift another 20 years, unexpectedly. we all need to be investing for our retirement so democratization of lower cost of access. and, as a regulator whose job it was to protect the retail investor, when people get into trading, not investing, but trading, following trends like that, you do getter worried, because overtime the retail investor does not do as well as the institution in those types of trading scenarios program like this are super.
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you've brought up several things the past few minutes, all of those things are important for investors to understand. >> they have similar names, you know, no one likes that. you want to see retailers getting involved in investing, but is this investing when they are trading quickly. it's different to be in the -- or buying stock, you know, on margin we talked about financial literacy it's a big step up to go from
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cash investing to buying options and buying stocks on margin or shorting stocks. you have to have a much better understanding of short-term market movements if you use leverage, you know, you can have substantial losses, nonetheless. >> did it price you, though, after four days of trading that robinhood was going to be selling more shares these are shares to pay off early in investors, is that weird or does that strike you as being odd or not?
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but you caught jim cramer last now, who mentioned this just wasn't available for some it has people looking and saying that may be helpful on the volatility side >> you know, i don't know. >> it's hard to say, but i do think the women and men at the s.e.c. are looking at is, you know, the amount of information that is available about short interests, shore supply, whether it's timely enough, those types of things. look, our trading dynamics have
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changed a bit. those are things i know gary gensler is a very smart guy, and you need to constantly do that >> jay, before you go, you mentioned your successor, we had a conversation with him earlier in the week about crypto i know that you contemplated how to regulate and deal with it, whether there could be a bitcoin etf. i also know in your new role in life that you're looking to work with a company at least that's hoping to get a bitcoin etf off the ground.
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>> but gary pointed out a lot of things in the cryptospace that -- that trading in crypto assets is not the same, does not have the same protections as trading in stocks on the stock exchange i think gary is looking at this in a really thoughtful way, and i applaud him for it. >> you've lived with these people you know the way they think, though
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>> andrew, it would be inappropriate for me to handicap it. jay, we look forward to seeing you seen. have a great weekend. >> thank you. when we return, breaking news in just the past couple minutes, united airlines the first airline to require all u.s. employees to be vaccinated or be fired. we've got details right after the break, but the ceo on di "squawk box" is talking travel, right after this is almost at the finish line today we're going to fine tune the dynamic braking system whoo, what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq 100 like you you don't have to be a deep learning engineer to help make the world a smarter place does this come in blue? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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good morning, becky. united airlines is the first airline, to tell its employees, you need to be vaccinated, this is the mandate it's for all u.s.-based employees the deadline, late september, early october, it partially depends on when the fda does full approval on some of the vaccines that are out there, if that doesn't happen, the date might slide into early october there will be religious and medical exemptions if you are noncompliant, if you say, you know what
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i'm not doing it those workers will be fired. united has 67,000 u.s.-based employees the pilots are already 90% vaccinated the flight attendants 80%. scott kirby sent a memo for employees, wrote it over the last 16 months, scott has send dozens of condolence letters to family members of employees who have died due to covid-19. we are dreamed to try to keep another united family from receiving that letter. if you look at shares of united, from -- you see the big falloff there in the stock, and then for the most part has come back, i don't know, 70%, 75% of the way.
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since then the incentive for employees to do this, aside from keeping your job, a day off of work they have worked this out with the unions in terms of incentives for those employees to become vaccinated you might say why do this now? united has seen what's happened in the past. when we start to head into the fall the fact you may see a surge in cases, they want to get ahead of that they would like to have all of their u.s.-based employees vaccinated before there's any potential surge in covid-19 cases that could come this fall. this is a big step with united becoming the first major airline to say you've got to be vaccinated in you're going to work here. >> two points. first of all, the idea this is going to be timed to when there is a full approval from the fda, so that's a recognition of maybe why they haven't done it sooner, but they have gotten incredibly high vaccination rates already
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pilots 90%, flight attendants 80%. what about the rest of the employee base? >> we asked that question. they do not have a percentage at this point this was a briefing with the safety officer, and he said we don't have an exact percentage, but they have an internal app, so that you can upload your vaccination card, and it's not uncommon that when they have staff meetings, where everybody gets together, whether at the headquarters in downtown chicago or another location, it's not uncommon for people to be sitting around the table to say, here's my checkmark, you've been fully vaccinated it's in the app. >> phil lebeau, thank you for bringing us that news. we'll continue to talk about story and so much more peter kern, ceo and vice chaim of expedia, i want to talk about expedia. i know you've been rematter that
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company, but i want your reaction to this news this morning that united is going to be requiring its employees to be vaccinated and whether you think other airlines will now follow. >> it's news to me this morning and we're seeing this across the u.s. i think people are taking a lot of different approaches. i think -- we have offices in 55 countries around the world there's no one size fits all answer as you said this is for u.s. employees. it's unclear what it does for union employees. you know, we are constantly evaluating this every day. i think everybody getting vaccines is a good thing
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>> haven't put a man dade in the united states yesterday? >> we have not we're trying to find the broughtest applications, but there are no simple answers. frankly i think we're all going to have to live with covid vaccines have proven to be the best way to blunt it the world is a big place i think we're all going to have to find ways to be protective with being safe. >> what are you seeing though now? it lookedly we are on a straight line up. >> i think the delta variant is changing that. we certainly saw tremendous
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demand going into the summer, but certain on the edge, delta has had an impact, whether it's for companies that have closed down look australia, to other country that is have imposed new rules across borders, and certainly it puts fear in the mind of certainly travelers. it's the you could spread of -- some people are very concerned and have the lightest issue, you know, will change their plans about travel, and some are constrained about the rules around them. >> you are try to go reimagine, and you've done quite a job doing that over the past year. in terms of analysts, though, in the investor community, there is a view that cost cuts are behind
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the company and the investments in marketing and the like are going to be big coming up. how should they think about that >> i don't think ear going to see us necessarily be investing more in marketing than we ever have i think you'll see us invested better and smarter and seer our brands work together more clearly. or a collective good, and i think, you know, i think we will see efficiencies as we get our tech palace form organized, and as we get one sort of infrastructure that serving or businesses and b 2 b partners. i think both of those things are not quite accurate i think we'll continue to see efficiency and margin improvement over time. i think we will certainly invest in marketing we have a great new leader of our brands
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any sense of where the business travel piece is really going to lie here? peter, we've got to run. if we had this conversation a year from now, and you looked at bookings across the board, what does it look like? >> i think we'll be back to pre-pandemic levels. i think we'll still be living with covid i think science will help us live with t i think corporate, international, domestic, all
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will be back. >> next summer,for sure. great to see you, peter, hope to do it in person next time. looking forward to being back, as you said. >> thanks, guys. have a great weekend. >> you too when we come back, car vana with strong earnings yesterday we'll talk to the ceo on whether trends have changed, and what he's seeing in the car market. and the jobs report is about an hour away the futures ahead of that, relatively flat. and the s&p, which set a record level yesterday, indicated up by 1 1/2. the jobs report again, just over half an hour away. more to come on "squawk box. we will be right back.
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good morning, it is jobs
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friday in america. we're just 30 minutes away from the number that wall street is waiting for. no one is sure, and robinhood, once again hire in premarket trading. it's been a volatile week for the company. the senate can't close the deal on the infrastructure bill it could at a quarter of a trillion to corporate deficits the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ ♪ good morning again, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is out today we have the big jobs report coming up in less than half an hour, the equity futures ahead
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of that have been hanging in there, relatively speaking the dow futures are up by about six points nasdaq futures indicated down about 24 if you're watching the treasury market, we have seen yields pick up a bit the ten-year is yielding 1.25%, so we'll see how that holds after that all-important jobs nu number robinhood, check out the shares for the online trading plats form it plunged more than 27% yesterday after that filing revealed exists shareholders plan too sell close to 100 million shares over time that was at wednesday's rally. this morning it looks like it will open up about 3% higher the senate failing to seal the deal on the infrastructure plan lawmakers couldn't come to an agreement on remaining amendments yesterday, but the
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chamber likely to hold a vote to limit debate tomorrow. the nonpartisan scorekeirer saying it will -- in a statements, senators rob portman and kiyrsten sinema say that spending would be offset there a combination of new revenue as well as savings. finally, more evidence of china's big big crackdown. officials are planning to fine a food company about a billion dollars for allegedly abusing its dominant position. bloomberg reporting that didi considering giving up its control of its data as a part to attempt to resolve a regulatory probe.
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>> what does that mean for uber, if they decide to give up the data, which has been a sticking point? >> well, i think part of the issue is at this moment for uber, it remains effectively a passive investment we talked about it with derek on the program, the ceo of uber just a day ago it will go down from where it was before from what i understand, there's no data transfer back and forth with uber currently. these companies are operating completely independently of each other. i think there's a long-term question whether uber will want to continue to own didi or not that's something to watch for. >> back to more of the markets, and get a check on some of the other key stocks making move for that we go right back over to dom which you good morning again. >> good morning. let's chick off a look at our
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morning's moves s. gwinnett, this is the parent company of newspapers like "usa today." it's due in part to a 41%, so those shares you can see up about 5.5% draftkings up about 2% or so, this is the digital sports entertainment and gaming company best known for its namesake sports betting platform. they reported better than expected profits, and also raised the full-year revenue forecast draftkings saw a number of key metrics, so those shares are higher we're going to end on amc networks, which is up 3.5% on thinner premarket volume, this is after the movie studio appeared cable tv operator said it's on track to immediate the
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full-year revenue, operating profits and streaming targets. the moves seem to have an effect on amc entertainment, which is the movie theater operator it also appeared to be a booth on the heels of the amc networks earnings release amc entertainment is currently up about 2.5%, so keep an eye on amcx versus amc. now, let's go over to steve. >> wall street expecting blockbuster job growth of 850,000. the unemployment rate expected to hit a pre-pandemic low.
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but signals leading up to in number have been mixed we have the weekly adp report, strong ism manufacturing and services, especially the employment indices there, and moderate indications from two of the high-frequency daughters we are cover. in addition to the impact of the delta variant, we'll be watching indications for inflation. steve pierpont points to just how pervasive and severe upward wage pressures have been
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they think the headline number could be over a million, because many weren't hired, so many won't be laid off so a lot to look at and look through in this upcoming report, andrew. >> steve, before you go, what do you think we're going to see when it comes to the states that ended some of these programs early? >> i'm working on that right now. i have at least three reports right now, two of which are from ukg and homebase, which as you know, they deal with actual people who are punching time clocks and real data from their software about who is hired, who has not. they have done a study and found no impact from the rolling off of these unemployment benefits i can say that's on the hiring
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side what i don't know if there's some impact in potential bringing people back to work we'll be looking at labor force partic participation. has the end of that benefit brought people back in >> steve liesman, thank you. norwegian cruise lines is challenging florida law, and today norwegian an the state of florida are battling over which court should actually hear their arguments. kristina partsinevelos has more on this story. kristina, what's up? >> the return of cruise ships in south florida has turned into a battle of the heavyweights in norwegian's report, it says it hopes to find clarity on the path forward to sailing from florida. >> governor desantis says the ban is to protect civil liberties. while norwegian says we believe the prohibition is on the wrong
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side of federal law, public health and science the company could be fined as much as $5,000 per person. that's why norwegian is suing the state at the southern direct of florida, a federal court, in the hopes a judge would allow them to continue their business. florida wants to settle it in a state court, which has already been relatively friendly to the policies and further added, quote, norwegian's case is not about public health, but rather about a business decision it has made in an apparent attempt to reduce costs. as florida and norwegian fight over the venue to hear the arguments, how cruises proceed on august 15th is still up in the air. >> this is such a strange case, when it's a business that wants to do something -- a private
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business that wants to do this, what are you hearing in terms of how this is anticipated, expected to go down? what are the odds at this point? >> what we're seeing is more of a procedural aspect, where they're going to actually hear the case. >> what is more likely to happen the state courts or the federal courts anybody getsing at that point? >> based off the one lawyer i spoke to, federal based off the word, because a lot of it is state law versus federal law norwegian hired a big company, quinn emanuel, to defend them. i can't make any predictions, but it seems like they're going to push it up the federal and see they're backing the cdc, because the cdc putting forth a condition in sailing, which means you slowly ease into it. this is a situation that's been changing rapidly.
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at least in terms of the delta variant. thank you. coming up, the july jobs report it's on the way at the bottom of this hour, but first a ceo with his finger on the pulse of the sizzling hot car market. the ceo of carvana will joining us clone does reception work, frank can go to meetings. visit a job site. and even finish work early. you look really lovely. frank? frank...i trusted you! but if cloning isn't right for you, just get posh. virtual receptionists who can answer and transfer your calls, because you can't be in two places at once.
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welcome back another example of the surging automark, shares of carvana are sharply higher, posting strong second quarter numbers, beating on both the top and bottom lines. the first quarter of positive net income ernie garcia joins us. this has been almost on a straight line up, ernie, a remarkable thing to behold the biggest question for the market, and what's going on in terms of supply, is whether this is going to sustain itself
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>> sure. that's a big question. i want to take a victory lap, saying it's our first positive corner, and thank all the people who have worked so hard to make that possible. this quarter we sold over 100,000 car, and to have the first profitable quarter is something we're really proud of, so thank you to the entire team out there. this is a complicated question many people have weighed in, so far pretty much everyone has been wrong on their predictions, so i'm not super-eager to add my name to the list, but what the market is driving is pretty consistent what's materially different is there's so many fewer cars being manufactured, so until the supply chains and oems get
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figured out, it's -- >> you deserve to take a victory lap, not just the tailwind of what's happened in the auto industry, but the operations unto itself, but then there's the issue of the macroenvironment we're trying to make sense of, and car prices continue to go up. does that level off? are you seeing more new cars coming on to lots and that taking any business away yet what are the sort of signals you are seeing >> i think over the next six months, or even 12 months, i think it's hard to say i think we're finding out that the oems have supply chains that are maybe more fragile than we all wish i think it's hard to predict when that normalizes again
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over the last 20 years or so, there's are 40 million car sales every year this year looks like 19, across all of the retailers, and a ten or 20-year period, the margins are pretty consistent. keep our costs own, and if we do that in the long run, we think it's all going to work out, but over the next 6 to 12 months, i think it's hard to call the particulars >> hey, ernie, i just wanted t ask you, from a customer's perspective, i bought a jeep a couple months ago, went to a car dealer nearby, had a terrible experience, just wanted to pay for the car and walk out the door i ended up walking out i went to car vana, but it was a lot more expensive, lie thousands more i went to another dealership an
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hour and a half away rather than do that. why did it cost so much on carvan that? >> that's disappointing. on average we generally sell cars for around $1,000 less than dealers do, so i don't know the specifics of your situation, but that's the average we charge no doc fees. again, thanks for check us out maybe check us out next time and actually go through with it. >> i want to talk a bit about the future of cars we now have a number of big automakers that are pledging effectively, still a decade out, but as you think about your business a decade out, how you think that changes the business, so there will be a lot more combustion engines, that will become available at a time where this might be a move towards electric vehicles.
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there also might be more safety feat terse in the future and potentially autopilot-like programs, and how you think that might change the buying dynamic? >> i think it will be exciting to watch it unfold it's hard to say there's 270 million cars in the u.s. and people trade the cars between each other roughly every six years. so that idynamic is likely to change with electrification takes hold, that will change we're trading to a diverse, more affluent customer, but i think for us, we're focused on making sure when one customer wants to switch cars with another cus customer, that we make it as simple as we possibly can for
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both sides. >> ernie, you do cater to a more aflurcht customer, but we're going to do the jobs report in about ten minute from now. are you seeing anything from the numbers in terms of strength in certain parts of the country you're not seeing in other parts? do you think the delta variant will help or hurt your business? >> we haven't seen anything that i think would be worth calling out. we're all keeping an eye on the delta variant. obviously the corona virus has had a massive impact so i think we'll be paying attention. we're paying close attention and we'll see where it all goes. >> ernie, congratulations so a milestone. we look forward to seeing yo again and following your progress >> thank you very much we appreciate it when we come back, breaking
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jobs data. we're getting closer to the july employment report. remember, we have a pretty weak adp report on wednesday. the government official number is on the way. "squawk box" will be right back. i've spent centuries evolving with the world. some changes made me stronger. others, weaker. that's the nature of being the economy. i've observed investors navigating the unexpected, choosing assets to balance risk and reward. and i've seen how one element has secured their portfolios, time after time. gold.
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♪ welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc we're just a couple minutes away from the government's july jobs report we have kate moore with us, from blackrock, austan goolsbee, former council chairman, and tiffany wilding, from pimco. katie george, a senior partner at mckenzie and company, and we have about a minute and 30 seconds left i'm going to ask, kate, you have a high number 1.05 million versus the 845,000 why is that? >> i think most of the forecasts that have come in are reflecting some of the adp weakness, but we think it will be a great month for job crazy. we're expecting to see strong
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gains. austen, you think delta is driving this >> i think it is virus, virus, virus. hopefully the reference week is before that. i desperately hope the jobs number is over million, but i'm afraid we're in the 600,000, 700,000 range. tiffany? >> the data we look at suggests very little change in behavior as a result of the delta variant. we think that jobs picked up quite notably. we also greet with kate. >> rick, what's your guess >> 728,000, 5.8 on the unemployment rate. my numb gere is lower, but i see very little effect on the negative side. everybody is being more careful. i think our society is learning to live with the virus i think it's just taking longer
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than expected. let's not lose sight of the fact 728,000 in the grand scheme of things is still a powerful number >> steve, what's the number you're looking for >> around 750, a bit of weakness from the adp it is time for the july jobs report rick santelli has the number what do you see? >> 943,000 943,000 is nonfarm payrolls. if we look at the private payrolls 703,000. manufacturing 27,000, the unemployment rate, and here is the shocker, 5.4%. 5.4% wow, average hourly earnings up 0.4, better than expected. and much better that the the
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rear-view mirror if we look at average hours, 34.8, ticked up a bit. labor force participation, unfortunately, 61.7, exactly as expected and yes, a tenth higher, but we could do better. the under-employment rate, 9.2%. if we look at nonfarm last month, it moved from 850,000 to 938,000. private payrolls moves fro 66,000 to 769, from manufacturing from 15 to 39,000. the marketplace right now, interest rates are higher, they're moving up, that very technically significant double bottom we talked about on wednesday at 1, 12 and 10s held magnificently on the week and the day. we're up on both in my opinion, this is a terrific number, and i'm a little disappointed i was low,
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but yet that's what it is. i still think matching jobs to people has proven more difficult than even i would have anticipated, giving what jolts looks like. >> let's bring in some other voices steve, you've been looking through the report, anything else that jumps out at you will? >> we got the 240,000 in government workers that we were looking for. the private sector, 703,000, so a bit more muted rick is risk, though, anything up in this area, though, is still a good number. i want to see what happened to the participation rate, whether or not we got people back into the workforce. i didn't see that on the initial go-around. but the big chunk in the government section was local education workers coming back. i'm going to to say it back and keep poring through the numbers. this is an incredibly strong
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numbers, that's good news, but the market's reaction has been muted. futures did pick up, but only up by about 86 points now for the dow futures. >> i think both the market reaction to almost all of the good news has been muted over recent weeks, becky. we've some outstanding earnings numbers, some economic data, even though we're dealing with a delta variety. there's not been a huge amount of additional thew yaismt. i to say, i think this lake market report will be positive for sentiment. it's a confirmation we're going to continue in the growth path but at least over the summer months, and i think this is something that tiffany pointed out earlier, the high-frequency data has lked good the only thing i will note is companies have had a hard time getting people into seats, and have complained about having to
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pay meaningfully higher wages. >> tiffany, does it come as a surprise to you? >> not at all. i think we're in a new war for talent that's across different jobs and industries in manufacturing, in the space where i work, we've long had real issues with shortages of high skilled workers my clients need to convince a new generation of workforce that manufacturing is a long-term sustainable industry for a great career and a high-tech industry. >> austen, you were thinking we might get a lower number does in number put more pressure on the fed to start tightening policy sooner rather that later? >> it might? as i said there was this
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technical issue about the reference week when they did the survey that determines of unemployment rate was before the delta variant really started spreading, so i think we definitely want to keep an eye on that. if the actual unemployment rate will get down boo the 5s or even into the 4s, then an the folks that are on team temporary, like i consider myself, once we get to something like full employment, now you've got -- the fed has got to be concerned about the chances for sustained inflation. until we resolve this issue of the seasonality that steve mentioned, it's probably a little too hasty to do that, but i definitely think a lovely report like this will start increasing the pressure. >> let's talk about what we saw from just hearing earlier, senator manchin talking about how he would like to see the fed start to tighten things up
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that's unusual this is the first democrat starting to put pressure on that you could argue that martialing is not really a democrat, but this is incredible pressure as jay powell looks to whether he will get renominated for a second term. >> joe manchin is the most powerful democrat in the senate. if he ace being critical of jay powell, the implications for confirmations, for nominations, all that have sort of things are definitely on the table. like i say, we got one lovely month here let's hope that we continue to put months like this together month after month in a way for the fed to be in a situation, would be the best possible outcome, because it would mean the economy is coming back robustly all of that hinges on the virus not raging out of control.
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>> i get to see all of you in my spy camera i'm watching everybody at the same time. rick santelli, i see you shaking your head. >> as usual. >> what are you thinking >> i don't think there's a chance, not one chance that jay powell will not be reconfirmed they can play all the kabuki theater games they said, he will be confirmed you heard it hear first. >> anyone agree with that? disagree steve? go ahead, kate, jump in. >> not so much on jay powell, but i want to agree with austen said i think we all want to be the fell considering their policy that is an outstanding outcome, one i think we are all hoping for over coming quarters. >> outstanding meaning you think
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it needs to happen what would the market reaction be when the fed is talking about it >> i think the fed is talking about it, because growth is strong i think we can shrug it off. plenty of companies have proven up for -- to have outstanding results. >> we have a $1 trillion transportation bill -- or infrastructure bill, and another $3.5 trillion that the democrats are considering at this point, too. how do you figure out where the economy last quarter, not knowing which of those get passed >> you have you have to keep in mind, relative to the size of the fiscal stimulus, even if we do pass additional legislation, you know, we're still going to see government spending, you know, lower than where it's been, you know, just because of the massive amount we have gotten i think really the question is,
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do these, you know, types of reforming that the administration is trying to pass, do they really impact the supply side of the economy that's really important. do they increase productivity? do they bring people back to the labor force, and in particular women? because that's not inflationary. that increases the supply of the economy. it increases growth over the long term. those are the things we're looking for with the legislation. >> katie, what have you seen in manufacturing just in terms of trying to get workers back in? do you think the policies are keeping from getting them back does that change september when schools open? >> i think we're seeing more of a fundamental shift in the way that companies get work done, and therefore the value proposition they have for the work force so in manufacturing, we're seeing real accommodation and change and acceleration of digital and advanced analytics
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capabilities to make companies more resilient in the face of the pandemic, but in the fates of other supply and demand as well, and that changes the game, really for the work force, what they can expect in terms of long-term career potential, what they can expect in terms of continuous learning and upscaling. average hourly earnings, is that concerning? does that get into this argument of whether this inflation is transitory is that not enough for you to be concerned? >> i think it's not enough to be concerned. most of the thing that's driving those wage numbers each month now is the composition of where the job is being created if you get a bunch of lower-income jobs coming in, it's going to bring down average wages, even though nobody's wage changed.
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the fact that labor force participation seemed like it stayed stable rather than going up is pushing back a little the other way. i think on that one we've got to keep an eye on it. >> rick, i want to come back to you on this. we've been looking at that testing all the way down to 1.1 and change earlier this week on the disappointing numbers. now ear lukinge ie ie ie ing --n at 1.72% >> i think there will be less up side than many think, but i think we have turned the corner to some extent if we do forensics, the adp number shocked the market, dropped it down to 112, equalling july's 20th intraday low, but it was the service sector number that reversed it now it's a jobs number pushing it even higher
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these are good developments. maybe some of those short positions we're looking for higher rates of flush through, i think that will open the door for a fresher treasury market for dealing in a more historically fundamental way with better economic underpinnings to the economy i would be looking for a test of the 136 to 138 level in tens, and then we'll know if we can get closer to 2% by the end of the year that would be my area above the market that we would get some horsepower on interest rates. >> steve, hit me what did you find? >> well, the participation rate did go up. it was all men we got some women up, but not to move the rate. i think the fed will look at that the other thing to point out is the median forecast for a fed committee member for the unemployment at the year send,
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we're at 5.4, the fed under the policy it envisions, which no rate hike and a taper announcement toward the end of the year, it has some room to go, another percentage point down, by their own calculations of what the right policy is relative to a 49.5% rate the big number there was food and drinking establishments, up 253, so that's a reopening area. that's what i would expect if we're going to look for any delta variant effect, it will come in these with less hiring in that area, but if the idea is right that we're not seeing that much effect, we can still see strong hires this is two months in a row of big numbers.
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you know what the snafu acronym stands for in the normal crazies in of reopening after the pandemic, everyone is normal it's been very interesting here, and now we've gotten a pop here. i think there's a debate out there, 1 there's some guys whoa crazy for whom it's a big deal in september, october or
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november, and whether or not thing are going faster or slower, they'll announce itsh did youb but i don't think they again -- and then the other day we talked about the idea he sees rates hikes in 2023. that's exactly in line where the market is priced or that reinforces the thinking you've had to this point. >> you know, we've talked a lot about the unemployment rate falling quite a bit. we have to remember the household survey was quite weak last month, so any kniffin monday, there's a noise. so we have to smooth through that our view of the fed is, you
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know,that on tapering, which starts in january. you know, we've also talked about the wage data. i think it's really important to know here, there's a lot of increases and wage and that might in and out necessarily translate economists call that more labor share the other thing is, and i kind of allude to do this before, productivity is also accelerating a bit so that just gives companies a bit more room to raise wages >> hey, kate, we've been saying this is most important number, but is it the most important
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number >> i think in terms of the direction of travel for the overall market, and i think confidence that i was mentioning before in the growth story, this was critically important with you sea that in the ism services as well, and jobs hard to fill it's a consistent response from companies but they hi-- these higher wages were not -- at the same time companies are showing that they're quite capable of handling higher input costs and higher labor costs in this environment. i have to say, becky, like, i remain constructive on equities in this space. i want to thank our jobs --
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>> becky, just real quickly. one number that is very important. it comes next week we get the cpi report. that's relative to wage gains to look at real earnings. we have to talk about it on monday, but what's happening to wages relative to inflation is inflation taking all of those wage gains away? thats a big, big impact. >> that's a very interesting point. 9403,000 is the jobs report number unemployment rate all the way down to 5.4%, a bit of a shocker. thanks to our jobs panels for walking us through it. meantime, talk about markets and the impact, i want to bring in jim paulson good to see you, jim
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then, again, offset against what you think the fed may or may not do. >> i think this is good numbers for the stock market, andrew it's just one number and you have to take it with a grain of salt i think the real concern is the bond yield, earlier this we're we were down, and now almost up to 129 this morning. that is a huge turn. technically i think that will raise for a lot of people the bond yields are done going down, and may be headed up again what this does, more than anything, it causes a big shift in the leadership of this stock market you can see this already where the nasdaq is off a lot this morning, and small-cap stocks, their futures are way up
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the undertow has shifted to some degrees. those more sensitive to the economy, and away from defensive and growth stocks, which have been leading for a while here. you know, i think that's the undertow i think the other thing this does is caumont down these the little bit and reminds people there is still an incredible fundamental story going on, not only reported by company injures but now on main street as well and calm some of the fears tightening comes at some point but i'll tell you what, when we're growing earnings like we are growing them, and we have a sub-1.3% 10-year treasury yield. i think we need tightening of the system before the stock market runs into real trouble >> this is backward looking, though good news backward looking. how do you think about delta in terms of the fall, in terms of
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the winter, in terms of what it means actually to small businesses because one of the things we did see past couple weeks is some of the growth stocks, tech stocks got a little bit of a bump because people thought maybe that's where the action is going to be. >> my first response andrew, i'm tired to try to act like a virus expert i thought we were close to getting beyond that here i still think delta is a risk. no doubt about that, the delta variant and now the delta plus variant and others coming behind those. and that could come back to roost yet. i think to reduce the growth estimate for the rest of the year a little bit. but what is good here is we're coming off 12% year on year growth -- year over year growth in real gdp. if we slow to 5 or 6 that's growth twice as great or more what we've had the last several decades. and so i think delta could continue to haunt us, if you
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will, at least until we get all the kids vaccinated down to age zero and that could well be into early part of next year. but i also think that the fundamental growth here is so strong, not only for job creation but income generation, spending, earnings, that -- that we can handle if the delta is going to slow us down a little bit. and i think still be okay. >> okay. jim, great to see you. big day, big jobs number market's racketing >> thanks for having me. >> when we come back another big story, united airlines taking a big step to protect employees as the delta covid variant geras. phil low bow gri brings the details when "squawk" returns after this this is the gap, that opened up when everything shut down. ♪
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tonight out of ammo. covid leading gun clips. basketball spotlight how far can the men and women's teams go welcome back to "squawk. united airlines announcing this morning and that all u.s. based employees need to be vaccinate andrea soon. phil joins us with the latest. >> andrew, united is the first major airline to mandate vaccinations now this is just for the u.s.-based employees at this point. but that's 67,000 out of the company's 71,000 employees again, here's what's going on. u.s. based employees must be vaccinated the deadline late september early october. depends on what's going on with full authorization from the fda. if that doesn't happen soon there is another date. but the employees will be notified several weeks ahead of when the actual deadline is. there will be some religious and medical exceptions they'll judge those on a case by case basis
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and those not compliant, knows saying i will not get vaccinated and don't have a religious or medical exception, they're going to be fired. they're going to be let go from the company. united already have 90% of the pilots fully vaccinated. 80% of the flight attendants already vaccinated that's a big step in terms of the company having confidence that they can get the rest of their u.s. employees to also be vaccinated if you look at shares of united this morning -- and they're moving a little bit high are, keep in mind that one reason why the company is doing this is because they want to get ahead of any possible surge in cases that might come this fall heading into the colder weather this winter >> right hey, phil, is this something you think we'll see from the other airlines united is based in chicago many of the others are based in the south. delta, american airlines, southwest for example. >> yes, they may be based there. but, you know, look, american has hubs in chicago and in new
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york delta has hubs in new york these guys are nationwide. so if they're going to make this move yeah they would make it for all employees. and this is an industry, andrew, where they tend to follow etch other. not always but tebd to i've reached out to the other airlines at this point nobody change something policy doesn't be surprised if there is a shift within the next couple weeks. >> okay. phil lebeau appreciate that news becks >> that does it for us it's been a long week. an interesting week. a lot of news here but we thank you for being with us through all of it that does it for us today. make sure you join us affection eye week "squawk on the street" coming up after a quick break.
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good friday morning. welcome to squawk on the street. aim carl quintanilla morgan brennan the jobs number for july, 943,000. that's the biggest gain since august of 2020 with positive revisions. unemployment down to 5.4 that's a post-pandemic low and bonds reacting, 10-year now above 1.28 really interesting stuff going on here, david, as it appear

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