tv Closing Bell CNBC July 30, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
>> potentially i think you and i would great the skirmish story of the day is scarlett johansson and disney. >> just wow. i think disney's response was over the top who doesn't want to get paid up front? >> and maybe avoid these issues in the future. thank you, frank and thank you, everybody, for watching "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, kelly and frank. happy friday, i'm sara eisen here at the new york stock exchange, with mike santoli. wilfred is out today, will be back on monday amazon in its wearer outlook, setting the tone earlier. growth underperforming value overall, how that will affect the u.s. economy, and we're looking at weekly declines, but also riding six months of gains,
another strong one in the books. until we are done. the nasdaq underperforming right now. coming up on the show, the ceo of strand brandsdowns us with the outlook. and whether the company will enforce mask man daze in its restaurants. plus hawaiian ceo joins us on travel demand and whether passengers could soon be required to get a vaccine before they board a plane a big interview, the surgeonen general of the united states on the record on what the u.s. needs to do to combat the spreading virus, and whether there will be a change to federal guidelines to come a lot to get to today, but the story, the wall of worry for the market, and whether investors would continue to look past the spread of covid-19. mike santoli tracking the market reaction, and jason katz from ubs is here with his forecast. mike, what are you seeing? the rally is still very much on
trend. it's grown a bit more uneven we had yell we may get a lock it in type of inextinct february through july, it's pretty rare to get those particular six months in a row, but one thing i'll point out, from the is it october low, we spent a lot of time up through may hugging the upper end of that trend line. we obviously have rolled a bit from here. it's not necessarily -- below the surface there's been a bit of weakness. also that mid july high, just a few months below where we are right now, so maybe it's a circling back to see if we actually have -- the combination of the slowdown fears, plus the sell the news response it's a lot to absorb, but the overall market is doing okay so far. this is from the beginning of march, quality verse high beta,
which is very much cyclical. march is when enthusiasm for the reopening and the accelerating economy peaked that's when high betas outperform its peak. people want something steady, skewed more toward a prolonged, reliable, if not slower recovery investor dollars are finding their way into more defensive groups, sectors that we have right here still negative on the year, but the outflows trough right there in the spring, and we've now actually seen plenty of money flowing into these sectors, staple, real estate, utilities it shows you it's a maturing rally, we're up 100% from the lows of something like 15, 16 months ago maybe it makes sense when we have more uncertainty about the pace of growth. >> a surprising winner for the month is health care
>> yes. >> where are investors now on the threat of the delta variant. we're getting increasing numbers of restrictions, more companies requiring vaccines, delaying potentially return to work, but not along lockdown how does it add up >> i think the premise is we might see a bit of moderation in consumer activity, maybe the travel sector is getting hit if you look at today's action, but in general nobody thinking this is a return to lockdown restrictions our outright restrictions for business activity that to me is what's being baked into the market. also, a lot of talk, if you look at the uk, a very well-vaccinated path with delta, and you've seen it come crashing down people are won'tewondering if is hot and peters out. >> and came down in india where it originated. the cdc warns it could be as contagious as the chickenpox,
and maybe more transmissible whatever we seeing in the data, meg? >> hey, sara the cdc is saying the war has changed in this pandemic, with the new data looking at with the delta variant. it is talking about it being more transmissible, but likely more severe in terms of the disease it causes, which is a declare action from the cdc. it also says that new data suggests that breakthrough infections among the fully vaccinated may be as transmissible as cases in unvaccinated people, and looking at this outbreak that we've been hearing about in provincetown, massachusetts, where essentially they saw 500 cases among people who live in massachusetts. 74% of those cases were fully vaccinated they conclude at the end of this report that the findings suggest even jurisdictions without substantial our high transmission might consider expanding prevention strategies
like masking so even suggesting that they need to go further that is the guidance early this week instead, perhaps everywhere should start considering this. it's not that the vaccines don't work that's in this report as well. it was first reported on "the washington post" this whole internal presentation, but they also show you are less likely to be infected with the virus if you're vaccinated, less likely by threefold, and against hospitalization or death by as much as 25fold, so the push will be to get as many people vaccinated as possibility. even if the wave comes down quickly, there's a fear there's another variant that could come along. >> are we seeing vaccination rates rise, as delta has spread and put people in the hospital >> that is the good news we are seeing an up tick,
particularly in states hardest hit, louisiana saying the new vaccinated quadrupled in the last two weeks so there is a sign that it's spurring people to go get the shot. >> meg tirrell, thank you for the update. for more on how it might impact the market, let's focus on jason katz. what are you telling, jason, your clients about et at least that is spreading mow. >> we're up 100% off the lows, so i'm not so sure i subscribe to the narrative that it's delta that's causing this angst in the market i think the bar has set very hike from an earnings perspective. by an lawrence earnings have been superior, they're coming in, look, the excusing are out
there, whether it's china tightening sits grip, or whether it's delta, the market was poised for a breather. >> so it sounds like, though, you are still sticking to an overall bullish take, right? the markets potentially earnings if so, what do you do? which sectors do you like? >> i mean, the preconditions for a beaver market simply aren't in place, if you ask the question with respect to earnings, are they still growing i mean, we're looking at 90% of the companies beating by nearly 17%. if we asked the question with respect to the fed, the fed is hanging tight on tapering to the end of this year, and probably not raising rates to the end of next year. the last question, as far as the economy is concerned, what is holding it back? >> you can kind -- the areas that were lacking vaccination, seeing an up tick in cases of
the hospitalization -- and i don't mean to be dismissive are area that are rural. so i think the surprise will continue to be the up side both on earnings and gdp growth >> jason, if not looking for a bear market to take hold agreed, we don't necessarily see a lot of the ingredients for something like that. do you think there's a moment here to, you know, reassess risk exposure the s&p sup 18% year to date, earnings revisions really slowing down at this point, and just maybe people are overexposed to equities at this point after such a strong run. >> you're entirely right by definition they've been over-exposed, because you have negative real-real yields on fixed income there's a disproportionate weighting, and now they're even
more overweighted. as much as i said there aren't preconditions for a bear market, there are conditions for froth out there, whether it's the proliferation of ipos, spacs, or the crypto phenomenon, or the meme stock phenomenon. yes, we borrowed from the future as far as performance is concerned. now venearnings have to catch u. earnings are pulling fair, but they're lower than january 1 earnings need to continue into stock prices, and we may see muted returns from this point. >> which sector looks the cheapest, jason? >> i come back to cyclicals. it's a boring story, but one that's very com pelgs. consumers discretionary, secondly, even though we have a flattish yield curves and rates may not go in energy on this
recent pullback as well. >> what about globally, jason? it's been a big question diversifiers have not really gotten paid if you've gone outside the u.s. so far. >> that's right. nothing conventional has worked. 60/40, diversification geographically hasn't worked, but if you look at vaccination rates, if you look at reopening progress in europe and in developed markets, they're behind us, which means there's more up side in the emerges markets, which are much more tethered to the commodity markets and the industrial markets, you think you're going to see a bigger catch-up there valuations are simply more compelling when we come back. the ceo of restaurant brands joins us what trends he's seeing with
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shares of restaurant brands moving higher, following an earnings beat. the company saw the profit more than double. digital sales grew by nearly 60%. it increased the share buyback to $1 billion. joining us is jose cil welcome back to the show, jose great to see you. >> great to see you as well. thanks for having me
>> you're welcome. a strong quarter where are you in the various brands relative to where you were, are we back to full business >> yeah, we've seen some good momentum coming occupy q2, so we're excited and positive about the momentum we have we've seen them accelerate significantly in the second quarter, one of our best in a long, long time. so we feel like we're back to -- which is real exciting, given we're a significant growth company around the globe we've also seen momentum sequentially improving in the second quarter versus the first quarter, and all of our brands been back to prepandemic levels, with the exception of tim's in canada, though we have seen strong momentum and movement, which we shared earlier today in
the earnings good progress. we've been focusing, and we're seer good -- in breakfast share gains, in coffee and other beverages, as well as in lunch, all of which are giving us confidence which are giving us the right past of ultimately getting to 40,000 restaurants around the world >> we just showed a snapshot burger king results were up strong, but you expressed disappointment with the brand's performance on the conference call is it back the chicken sandwich came too late? >> the chicken sandwich is a great sandwich the spicy one is really, really good that's the one i go to time and time again when i'm having burger king. i express indeed call i think we can go faster.
really through outthe pandemic, and through the halfway point of 2021, but i do think that -- and i do expect more from it i know the business and the brand quite well our franchisees expect a lot, as do we and our teams. i felt there was an opportunity to go faster, to accelerate our growth i think to get there is a function of focus and pace, and our teams are driving a good plan towards accomplishing the big octaves we have. really growing or digital business beyond where we are today and mobile order and pay as well. especially on the operations fronts, really continues to front on a great digital experience for our guest that's where i was really focusing in on the call this
morning? i think we can go further and faster in accelerating our performance at burger king. >> i'm wondering what might have happened in terms of consumer happens of ordering things on demand and using the app interface, if in packet it's convene, that goes through this happen, does it change your proposition,ing in your dependence on communities? >> convenience hag always been the and we think the changes in the acceleration during the pandemic were trends that were already happens during the pandemic we've been investing in digital with all of our brands, and we felt there was a movement for
further convenience for our guests through delivery and mobile order and pay, through loyalty programs as well we felt it was coming, and i think as many folks have commented over the last 15, 18 months, the pandemic, you know, merely accelerated probably three to five years. what we're seeing today is a lot of the progress and changes that we have seen the last 15 months, especially around off-premise, and we've seen great progress with tim horton's in canada, as well as burger king and popeye's in the u.s really expediting that process of getting your food or your beverages much more quickly, and doing it in a way that's seamless and frictionless. so that's, we they i a trend that's here to say, continues to
grow, and we continue to invest behind that. we think it's an additional way of providing service to our guests any way they want it. >> any new rules or restrictions you're putting in place? >> sara, the circumstances have been quite fluid over the last 15 months. we've always been guide i by what the cdc and local regulations have kind of instructed us to do at the restaurant level we have, today, clear man daze, to ensure that they don't exhibit signs of having some sort of symptom related to covid, and we continue to apply whatever local requirements exist and i think, if anything, the last 15 months have shown the resilience and the incredible grit of the
restaurant industry broadly speaking i know i can speak for our teams here in the u.s., canada and all around the world, that we're adapting to the circumstances and will continue to do so. >> why not just require people to have proof of vaccination to each in your restaurants why not take that extra step to help get more vaccinations in this country, which we need? >> i think it's one of the things that's on the table, certainly, but we're looking to see how different municipalities -- so i think one approach doesn't necessarily work under the circumstances we think adapting to the situation locally and by municipalities makes the most sense. >> my fine we're in a very
different place from where we were a year ago. >> have you thought on the capital return than you would prepandemic? >> look, i think our business is exciting, a growth bin, and generated cash consistently, and we've been able to see how resilient and strong our balance sheet is we continue to pay the different through the pandemic, and we actually bought back shares through the unit exchange that we have at rbi, even in 2020 so we feel we have a great balance sheet. we have a lot of flexibility and optionality in terms of bringing back capital to shareholders and doing it in an aggressive and i think attractive way the board of directors approving a buyback is really conviction on a business plan or long-term
prospects, and continues to create an competing opportunity for shareholders to go part of the growth at rbi. >> jose, thank you very much we appreciate your time today. >> thanks so much. have a great weekend all right. you too. still to come, we will get a read on the airline industry, when we speak to the ceo of hawaiian airlines. as we go to break, check out some of the topicers amazon takes the top spot, the ten-year yldie, robinhood and exxon, then apple. we'll be right back. t we need s. that's easily adjustable has no penalties or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay
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closing about 8% lower, yesterday not the debut that robinhood investors were hoping for. it set aside the highest allocation ever in an ip oo investors appeared to be focused on some of those regulatory risks, and fears about a possible peak. according to some new data from similar web, monthly active visits and time spend are all down significantly in the past three months web traffic growth fell to its lowest levels. that website growth and mobile apps typically translace, of course we should note that robinhood is still finally
cathie wood is officially a buyer. guys, back to you. >> kates, this discussion is -- it's always at, to some degree , so it seems like this is a tension in this company in the conversation surrounding it for a while. >> such a good point, mike that is really fintech in a nutshell square, paypal, they do associate of toe the line being tech focused, user-friendly, apps that keep people engage, yet they operate in a high le regulated industry i think
kristina partsinevelos. >> thank you here is what is happening. efforts right now to get more americans vaccinated appear to be working the white house noting a sharp rise in vaccinations, the cdc says average daily covid shots are up 16% super market giant kroger is updating mask recommendation with its customers kroger's is strongly urging all pat ron to wear a mask while in its stores, including those fully vaccinated in florida governor desantis saying he will ban school districts from mandating masks for students he says parents should make the decision. and the united states women's water polo team getting back to winning. it donnell nated the russian olympic committee with an 18-5 victory on wednesday they did suffered on wednesday the first olympic defeat in 13 years, lose to go hungary.
up next, what names he's betting on, and whether he's worked about the regulatory crackdown. plus we'll talk to the u.s. secretary-general, and whether a federal mask main date is on the table. yields are lower today again, ten-year trading around 123% they've been hovering at lower levels after a fed week where fed chair jay powell didn't signal he's in a hurry to taper. signal he's in a hurry to taper. we'll be right back. only 6% of us retail businesses have a black owner. that needs to change. so, i did something. i created a black business accelerator at amazon.
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cases on arrived, joining us is peter ingram, hawaiian holdings ceo. good to see you, sir you said, with regard to, the bebe ginning of the year, how are things shaping up? >> sure, good to see with you today we have had a as bookings have improved since the first quarter primarily from our u.s. mainland roots. >> we've seen steady booking d. and we're well booked for the third quarter and on pace where
we would normally expect to be for the fourth quarter for that part of the business so things have improved considerably there we're really looking forward to vaccination accelerating in japan and korea, australia, new zealand, which are the -- and for hawaiian airlines and recovery in that part of the bit, but we are hopeful for some improve, particularly in japan and korea, as we get toward the end of the year? i wonder if there's anything on the table rue now, in terms of -- as we do see what's happening with cases, you know, just to get ahead of things.
>> since they have become available. we have worked very hard to provide access to the vaccines we're obviously paying attention to the delta variant, and it's been disappointing to see us lose some ground in the last couple week in terms of our management in the number of cases, but we're hopeful that, as more people get vaccinated here in the u.s. and elsewhere in the world, we're going to see cases continue to come down and hospitalizations be reduced and, you know, work to get this virus under control.
>> we've got encouraged to see over the last six or eight weeks, vax nay start to go ramp up i think they're starting to make very good progress now my suspicious is we won't hear new announcements in terms of policy under after the olympics and paralympics are over they're managing cases in their own communities we are preparing our workforce and fleet to be ready for recovery in the latter half of the fourth quarter, and we'll obviously have to be nimble as things develop it doesn't depend on policy decisions in those other
justice, as much as anything we can do here in the u.s >> has anything happened over the course of the past year-plus, in terms of capacity on the routes that you service, or the opportunity to expand in different areas? how much shuffling than around to create some openings? yes, demand has recovered. there's been an increase in capacity relative to where it was, but it's expected, the demand recovery we have seen though in recent weeks, that's started a little more. for our part, we have larged service to premium cities, adding orlando, austin and ontario, california, to our network we're flying more
capacity than we did in the same time period in 2019 before the pandemic as far as the international, there's very little flying going on right now between the pacific region and hawaii. so we'll have to see how things evolve there, and how the competitive dynamic shakes out but we're prepared to resume flying to all the places we have been we're just looking for the opportunity where demand will allow us to be able to go in there and serve it on a profitable basis. >> peter, thanks a lot for the update >> thank you by the way, sara, i predict we'll see stories how there's a rush for hawaiian bookings, because here showing "white lotus" on. >> there's so many shows about
france, and everyone wants to go to paris. ti a lot of pent-up aspiraon >> we're breaking down the biggest movers of the day next in "the market zone. front desk. yes, hello... i'm so... please hold. ♪ those days are done. ♪ i got you. ♪ all by yourself. ♪ go with us and find millions of flexible options. all in our app. expedia. it matters who you travel with. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without
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the dow, s&p and nasdaq on track too low closer, but all on track for monthly gains. a lot of back and forth. courtney, i guess the market has been contended with a combination of earnings expectations as well as wondering about what the run rate of economic growth is with delta. any of it causing you to rethink general market stance here this week >> well, so good to see you again, mike. it's interesting at cap markets we have a large institutional investors. now, prior to today, we saw substantial amount of buys you know, you might thing work was stretched a bit, but you think about where earnings with, beating consensus, but what
happened was, it was a big g work, guidance whether the companies were sandbagging a bit or managing expectation s i think right now what we're seeing is a bit of taking a bit off the table at the end of the month, and we're going to see some pivoting as we get into august a bit more, but the guidance is what i think has crushed this market heretofore, and we should pay close teaens to it. hopefully they're underpromising and over-delivering. >> what are your take aways so far, as it relates to whether the strong gains we've seen can continue. >> i truly agree with courtney
on the guidance. i just think this is another great buying opportunity, these names crush earnings you know, they're the cloud ga gains, even as we slow down from where we're at, moving forward, i think if anything it's great opportunities for -- julia, you told us this was going to be a problem last night, it certainly is today. >> pinterest shares losing over 18%. now that stock is down over 10% year to date the main concern is the company's loss of 24 million monthly active users between the
first quarter and second quarter, and warnings that headwinds continue into the third quarter. jpm jpmorgan, which today downgraded the stock, said shopping initiatives remain in focus and commerce are the focus, as well as for -- >> pinterest, a number of actions, do you buy this dip, sylvia >> i think pinterest is one of the names that really benefited from the permanent stay-at-home situation. i think that, you know, a lot of people had more time on their hands and engaging in more online entertainment pinterest has a shot, i think, if they can sort of morph and develop into the e-commerce platform to make it a shopping
site i think from most of their momentum because of the covid, you know, perhaps, if anything, changes in terms of the variant, i don't expect that full time of sip wait to occur. i'm not buying on this one >> meanwhile, take a look at shares of amazon, a users shop less online, warning on slower growth, morgan assistantly, ubs, barclays, bernstein, all lowering their stock price it's been such a long-term winner, obviously. anything in here that makes you
wonder if there's some lasting issues here in terms of top-line growth, the commitment to e-commerce, use of capital or anything else? >> it's kind of like a tale of two citi, comparing a pinterest and am zones i think institutional investors were woefully underbretted with what happens with pinterest, whereas with amazon we were expecting a positive outlook i don't think it's going to change the fundamental views of how -- amazon is a staple in m many, it's a business that we want to get, but it was just a bit surprising, again, with the guidance, as we look forward and
the helm, will transition to executive chairman jon moeller will take his place, which is kind of an undramatic announcement, because moellor was considered to be the heir apparent -- completely rejiggered the business. a lot of analysts today, are looking at the stocks saying p & g has clearly proven that all the measures in place have achieved growth, what do you do with that stock? but you're 100% right when you talk about leadership, i'm okay with a little ho-hum transition
to the ceo we have enough in the market to keep us busy so i feel to have someone that's been within the procter & gamble family as long as joe has, and the ability and understanding of what the strategic vision of that business is going to be, we'll see some consistency even some of the spaces where procter & gamble maybe disappointed, if you will, you'll see that continue to come back risk-adjusted returns you will receive. >> what about the group in general? consumer staples are still up. inual a 2% gain, they caught a bid that the market has turned more defensive, away from the cyclical trade what do you do with the stocks >> i would agree they would be good long-term force folio positions to look at
they're out and about, doing something with ourselves, dressing up and buying products that sort of get back to life. the other thing is consumer spending is up, right? it's either going to go into the market or consumer discr discretionary. i like the sector. >> one minute to go before the close. what are you seeing in the market internals the session low was down over 200. actu actually more than 2 to 1 to the down side. overall volume is not that high, but definitely decliners take a look at the equal-weighted 1,000 against the s&p on a year-to-date basis. the stock is really
outperforming, performing through the spring, it's come back a lot this is one of the complaints about how it's been a narrower market the vix looks like it's got a bit of a bid, and august is the month we obvious see a bit of upturn in volatility [ bell ringing ] >> that is a wrap on the month of july. welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here with mike santoli, whos in today for wilfred frost. the dow falling 148 points on the session. it looks like a little profit taking toward the end of the month after overall a good month. caller pillar, boeing, goldman
sachs and disney the s&p 500 giving back half a person today, what worked? amazon is a big part of that story. and also closed shatterly lower. kind of a mixed day for tech you did see a performance with apple, comcast also going strong the russell actually fell, while the nasdaq, s&p 500 and the dow gained so something to talk about, some underperformance lately of the small caps after they had been strong coming up this hour, noted investor dan niles on whether some have gotten too high.
and later, u.s. general dr. have i vivak murthy listen to what he says which i think will be highly likely it's going -- you know, it might be a good time to take risks off the table, and save some dry powder for the possible we could see a severe correction here in the summer >> courtney gibson from luke capital ton and stephf jablonsk are still with us.
i haven't heard anybody -- those will say janet yellen did say we could see it in places that are unvaccinated o. >> you have to acknowledge the possibility, the white house itself saying we do not contemplate broader lockdown possibilities. it's very much possible to see some moderation in some of the consumer exuberance that we've had, maybe contributing to the idea that we're kind of downshifting a 3wi89 the market itself is not set up for real lockdown, for any kind of also, as you know, this is one more excuse for the fed not to move in any kind of a tightening direction. the market seems to be -- >> we've seen lower treasury -- >> they have taken it out of how much of the factor into your view, courtney what's going on with delta
and -- the fed ultimately? >> i was nodding and smiling with mike, as i was sitting there with you, because i 100% agree. the fed is doing what they're supposed to be, waiting on the data, not reacting to what the market things they should have been doing what if they had done that, right? imagine where we would be right now. i agree, i don't think we'll get into a governmental-imposed lockdown, per se people might begin to taper a bit, change their patterns i've heard some interesting feedback and this isn't to get people all riled up, trying to scare people here, but ultimately, companies and especially large big-box retailers have a lot of people in and out of their stores, i think we'll see the masks
reimplemented, and maybe it should be. it's not that bad of a thing to protect our economy and our people, more importantly, to make sure we don't go back to where we were last year. >> even the existence of this debate creates a possibility -- wouldn't you be looking at things like banks, transports, energies, all those -- and saying we could have a snap back, or, you know, would you reload on more of the steadier secular growth type of things? >> that's a great point, mike. if you look at the 52-week highs with airlines, hotels, you know, they're 20% to 30% off those numbers. i look at this again -- of course we don't want to -- but i think that vaccination rates are going to rise because of this -- one of the areas that look at
this -- so, you know if you're thinking about where to look for discounts again in the market, you're kind of unsure what the growth stories will be i do think that sector will get hit because of the rumors, just call it, whatever you want, about delta, but i think they're highly discounted, and have a great chance of recovery in the next year or two most of the scientific experts coming on talk with you guys think in two or three weeks we may hit the peak of this next variant. who knows? maybe we'll get back to live and travel and some of the industries that benefits from that i think the variant is what pulled the marked back then, and we saw people buys on the dip, coming back into the market. we saw that there were opportunities for these types of markets. i suspect a lot of that will continue happening for the next
couple months. >> oil giant chevron and exxon both closing in the red today. chevron's ceo michael worth joined cnbc this afternoon, giving his take on oil. >> we've seen a strong demand recovery over this year, and that really continues. it's a global phenomenon, stronger in some markets than in others the softness is in international air travels, but domestic travel within the united states, in china, is back at or above pre-pandemic levels. so, demand has been very strong. >> overall, it was a weak month for central stocks pippa stevens has the details. hey, pippa. >> hey, mike, it was a brutal month for energy stocks, bringing the july losses to
nearly 9%. it was the lodgest monthly winning streak in a decade they were we saw weakness across the board, with every stock finishing the month lower, dropping 19%, occidental, marathon, and phillips 66, the best performer for july shedding just 3% finishing the day, week and month higher, so the losses, come amey of a potential slowdown, as well as some, the top sector for the year not worried about any real -- is
this the sector um to buy? >> i think you see. >> consumption is on the rise. i'm a huge fan of delta, as we talked about before. we continue to see earnings out of the exxons and chevrons, and their guidance indicates that the market really should remain tight. i think we'll be okay here in the energy space as well do i think we see it tanking no, but hovering around the $70 level is realistic, as we look forward to that the back half of the year
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stocks they've been hammered as china's crackdown looms over these companies. plus the s.e.c. is setting new disclosure documents for chinese ipos our next guest says it is time to catch the filing knife. dan niles, founder of the satori fund what we've heard is just stay away, when we talk to fund managers, portfolio managers, because it's so hard to predict what china is doing, and what it will do next >> so three weeks ago, sara, if
you remember, you asked me this question on china. i said, look, you can't touch any of these stocks. we admitted we were wrong, buying them after the archegos mult multidown. so what you saw on furtuesday, that the chinese state-control media said the markets are misinterpreting what we're trying to do they could stabilize at any moments. the regulators at china had calls with big brokerage houses trying to calm market. it makes sense if you wipe out that trillion dollars worth of market -- at some point, that 10% is going to start to get really upset i think finally that call their attention, which is why i'm willing to buy -- i started
buying a basket on wednesday, added more on thursday, and today, while shorting a lot of u.s. stocks i could balance against it and we've got some chart on our website that i just published, which those charts so more detail on that. >> so did you buy didi that's sort of the poster child for the crackdown. >> no, i didn't buy that we bought a basket of 50 names we don't want to take company-specifics risks. there was sort of a rumor they would be taken pride at $14 a share, then it was denied. i didn't want any piece of that. i stayed away from that. >> what are you looking to shorten the u.s. market? is it strictly as an offset to the chinese play or do you vulnerability?
>> i definitely see vulnerability. we talked about we didn't like e-commerce we were short amazon going to the results. there were plenty of signs they were going to have bad results if you look beyond that, you know, twitter had issues with user growth before this, even though the results were good only one out of the microsoft, apple, plus the traditional faang names was up before earnings, and that was google. our feelings were these stocks had run alps ton, we wanted to take that money. k-web is down about -- at its worst, it was down 54% from its highs, set in february, and so we just moved that around. remember, we're a hedge fund, we're always trying to get the
best risk/reward and balance out of risks. >> are you still worried -- jay powell is sticking with a transitory theme it doesn't look like the market is, either you still think this will be the end game, higher inflation >> yeah, completely. the way i look at it is this way. the fed in -- if you go back and read the june statement, then they raised rates 17 times, and which ultimately resulted in a global financial crisis in clearly inflation was not transitory back then from what i look at, and we've got some charts on our website on this, if you look at the unemployment rate, that's down 5.9%, which is close to the 70-years average the job openings pretty much matched people unemployed. it took 8 1/2 years for those two things to meet up. i think when kids go back to school, which is, you know, a form of baby-sitting at some
point so parents don't need to stay at home, more people go back to work unemployment benefits, the extra ones, end on september 6, so prime day on june 20th was not good they gave you those numbers. amazon went to new 52-week highs. nobody carried u.p.s. came out on tuesday and said packing volumes are down. nobody cared, even though that was related to amazon. finally people cared when amazon had to report. in this market with all the stimulus out there, people will care when it slaps them in the face, like amazon did today. >> dan, in the mid 2000s, it's not as if inflation got out of control, but mostly went sideways they were using probably a different target for what they considered to be full employment you don't think this current fed is in a stance where we're willing to tolerate this months and months, as long as we're
short of what we view as full employment. >> here's what you have to ask yourself -- did the fed forecast this type of inflation absolutely not what makes them think they understand what's going on they haven't been particularly good at judging this in the past i think what's different right now, part of the reason the profit picture is down is because wages are up we heard it on the caterpillar call, in terms of costs going up a lot of the conference calls we have seen this earnings season, the companies certainly don't agree with the fed they're taking down forward numbers based on costs going up. so there's not a lot of evidence, at least when i look at long-term charts, which show where the output gap is, where unemployment is, relative to a number of job openings, and other metrics such as cap ex over the last decade, because
gdp grout has been slow. when you look at wages, they're up 3.6% year over year already and we're talking about, are we going into another lockdown? there's a lot of price pressure that tends to be longer-lasting in nature, and i think the fed, much like you've seen in the last few statements, where they say, yeah, we've made progress, but not substantial progress i fully expect tapering before the end of this year when that happens, i think that's a problem. >> that's a problem for the market so where do you want to be, dan? sicklically exposed to the banks and energy that you've liked >> you talked about it a bit earlier before i came on, because people are worried about the delta rise, et cetera, you've seen energy get absolutely killed, as well as industrials, materials, et cetera
meanwhile, tech has gone up, despite the fact you heard about slowing. i think what you'll see is 3.6 billion across the world has been vaccinated. we're going to get to herd immunity, either through catching covid or a vaccine shot by the time you get to the end of this year, things will be more open and you'll see this inflation flow through it's about 2.6 trillion savings in the united states alone all of those combined i think will cause inflation to be more persistent in areas like wages, and don't forget home prices, highest since 2005, that feeds into rents >> is oracle still your favorite tech stock it was a really good call. >> you and i talk about it every time actually cisco is my favorite call right now, which, by the way, is along the sane lines as
oracle cisco is our largest position. if you look at their orders, which was the best orders in the last order, in almost the last decade cisco hasn't grown -- consumers are what benefited last year, and i phones, et cetera. now i think with things starting to open up again, you're going to start to see enterprise spending we liked juniper, on, by the way, lower margins due to costs, and that's where we're more focus the right now in terms of tech i think that's the best large-cap tech stock out there >> dan niles, always a pleasure. thank you for joining us. >> thanks, sara. thanks, mike up next, it's seen massive growth, but the stock moved lower today. we'll talk to the ceo of twilio,
jeff lawson. the white house says we're not heading toward more lockdowns. dr. vivek murthy weighs in later, on "closing bell. (sound of people returning to the workplace) (sound of a busy office) (phones ringing, people talking, meeting) the company we've trusted to keep us working remotely, is the same company we'll trust to bring us back together. safely. securely. and responsibly. so now, between all apart and all together, there's a bridge. cisco. the bridge to possible.
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shares of twilio down today. it's the earnings outlook that has some investors worried joining us is the ceo jeff lawson good to see you. thanks for coming on >> thanks. thanks for having me here. >> let's speak to that a bit obviously very strong results. the market a apprehensive about whether there was a pull forward about a lot of business, such as yours, kind of the digitization of business. where do you stand on all of that >> i don't think the idea that digital transformation of the world is a pull forward. this has been a secular tailwind for the entire economy, you know, for the last 15, 20 years. it is going to continue. if anything, companies'
investment levels and the importance of these digital road maps have been accelerated by the events of the last 18 months if you think about it. every companies has had to become a software company, invest in digital channels, and had to do it even more quickly and more importantly because of the nature of the pandemic so we've seen customers across every industry, big and small, new and old, accelerate their investment it is, build more, more of those rooms maps are getting more and more prolific i don't know that digital agency sell race will slow down anytime soon i think history will agree with you. >> in terms of the over-averaging trend, certainly. maybe it would be helpful to talk about the things in terms of what are being demanded, what kinds of customer communications
and analytics are going around that maybe people are not too clear on exactly what we're talking about. >> what twilio does is help people engage in their customers digitally. voice, text messaging, chat, video, e-mail, et cetera, and help companies to modernize their systems, our their understanding of their customers, crn, or in their marketing, using all those new channels to understand your customer one of the big trends in many of the businesses we work with, we work with over 240,000 companies that leverage our platform, is the fact you can no longer rely on third-party data. it means companies have to really understand their customers, and built -- take all the data they see, how are you using my website in my mobile app? and how do i use that to help you become a better customer and
serving better it's call segment, and we're seeing companies, again, of every shape and size, saying, wow, we need to understand our customers, listen to them and execute with great marketing, great sales, great in-product services, and we need to surround that customer with a great experience you do that by united states what they're saying about themselves and engaging with them that's what twilio does. you can imagine that's more important than ever because of the digital tailwinds we see >> i'm curious about your vantage point on cyber security, given that it's such a major threat for so many businesses. they're obviously going to be talking to their customers about it what have you seen in terms of the amount of cyberattacks and what you're doing to help them communicate. >> we have more data that resides in various databases, so
therefore more at risk and harder to secure the interesting thing is companies that invest in service like twilio, like software and service applications, or platforms as a service, like amazon, azure, google cloud, they are less susceptible to the cybersecurity attacks, because you're protected by the pooled resources. so as companies have moved to the cloud verse trying to run it in their own data centers, and on-premise, which is hard to, hard for every company -- even nation states behind some of this stuff, pooling or defenses, getting behind big cloud-scale implementations has proven to be a more security path for companies. i think that's another advantage that is driving, fueling this growth in cloud infrastructure >> jeff, you've been somewhat
active on the m & a front. you made another announcement of a deal in your earnings release. what kind of product extensions or add-ins are you most interested in? >> we're always running an active game board. we have a road map, a huge opportunity to help every company meet the demands their companies have of them in this digital world. if there's companies out that can help accelerate that road map, or perhaps geographic expansion, because we're a global company, then those are the opportunities we have historically looked for in m & a opportunities. we found some great companies, and that just accelerates our
ability to lean into what we see as a generational opportunity to helpful company transform. >> jeff, thank you for the update appreciate it. twilio a $65 million market cap or so right now. jeff, thank you. >> thank you. a news alert on disney, the company saying it will required all of its salaries and nonunion u.s. employees to be vaxated, and those who are not yet vaccinated has 60 days it has begun conversations on the topic with the unions that represent their employees under collective bargaining agreements it's a big de, a big u.s. company, joinings likes of facebook and google requiring vaccinations a lot of the cast members, they call them, unionized, so they'll have to talk to the unions before they require something like that, but i think it's a big statement, as you continue to see more and mosh u.s. companies do the same.
that's what authorities are wanting, protect against hospitalization and death. >> a lot of public-facing employees, obviously, at disney. it's also part of the broader effort they want everybody to be vaccinated it increases demands for their products. >> though you do wonder how it will go down in a state like florida, with a governor who does not want mandates, and here's disney now requiring masks in the parts and employees to be vaccinated. absolutely we'll see how it plays up next, the secretary-general, dr. vivek murthy, and why the white house is taking a national vaccine mandate off the table. struggle to get reliable transportation to their medical appointments. that's why i started medhaul. citi launched the impact fund to invest in both women and entrepreneurs of color like me,
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majestic mountains... scenic coastal highways... fertile farmlands... there's lots to love about california. so put off those chores and use less energy from 4 to 9 pm when less clean energy is available. because that's power down time. time no a new update with shepard smith. >> here's what's happening congress should get ex-president trump's taxes. the justice department reversing its position on releasing thor returns. back in 2019, the bill barr justice department said congress lacked the legislative legitimate purpose now it says the finding was wrong and the i.r.s. must turn
over the returns it's unclear whether the former president will fight the decision now they're are you readysh to extend an moratorium on evictions. without action, it expires tomorrow nancy pelosi is not willing to commit to a vote today democrats are still searching for a proposal to gather enough support to pass overall. the white house saying its hands are tied after a recent supreme court ruling that the administration does not have the power to extend the ban on its own. team usa soccer, the women squeaking by the netherlands the next stop, the semis their next opponents -- canada the men's soccer team told a court that the women deserve a higher pay than they do. in a brief, they slapped u.s. soccer for underpaying the women's team for decades. tonight, a look ahead to
prime tithe full of olympic coverage, and a man who lent his swimming peel to katie ledecky so she could train for the olympics during the pandemic. >> shep, we'll see you then. disney and walmart, corporate at least, the latest companies announcing vaccine mandates it follows several companies and the federal government, as we get new indications that the delta variant is more transmissible and severe the white house saying today that a national vaccine requirement is not under consideration at this time joining us now is the u.s. secretary-general dr. vivek murthy thank you for joining us. >> glad to be with you >> are you advising companies to mandate vaccines for their employees? >> ultimately the decision is up
to individual institutions, but i do think that especially when a company finds themselves in areas with a high amount or substantial amount of spread, that considering things like requirements is this is a very reasonable thing to do i think it's a reasonable thing for hospitals and the healthcare systems to consider. people who work in the healthcare system, myself and others, are charged with looking after patients one of the things we require routinely for doctors and nurses is to get vaccinated for the flu, to help protects patients from the flu that's why you're seeing organization come toy and endorse the idea of institutions that deliver health care, requires the vaccine for their healthcare workers it's part of an all-in effort to ensure to ultimately protect them from the virus. >> as we're learning about the new data that the cdc has been citing, these breakthrough
infections for the vaccinated are transmissible, and the severity of delta appears to be worse. what can you tell you about that what are you seeing in the data? >> the key finding indicator that emerged in recent days was this finding about transmission among those who had breakthrough infection. a breakthrough infection is in a person fully vaccinated. these are unusual, and -- but what we found is in these breakthrough infections with delta, it turns out people can still transmit, whereas this was not true to the same extent with the alpha variant and prior variants it's for that reasons that the cdc shifted its guidance to incorporate this new information and recommended fully vaccinated people, especially in areas of
substantial or high transmission wear masks to help reduce transmission. >> so my question on this, since we did find this out, this new finding about the ability to transfer, is how safe are our kids going back to school is it safe to kids to be back in school this fall >> sara, i'm glad you asked. to me this is a personal matter. i have two small kids who are also supposed to go back to school in the fall and too young for vaccination yet. i'm thinking about their safety as well. we need our kids to be in school, many of our kids have lost out missing school, but what we also need to do is make sure it's safe that's why the layers of precaution that the cdc articulated a couple weeks ago
are so important you're right, there's no one thing on its own that's going to protect our kids that's where masks come in, regular testing, better ventilation, keep distancing, keeping kids home when they're sick we've got to do a lot of these in communities where states are think being restricting the ability of schools to require masks, or to do testing, to me that's worrisome that means we're taking away measures to keep our kids safe. >> doctor, granted certainly more precautions are preferable to fewer precautions when we don't exactly know how this is going to go, how many people are still unvaccinated for a while now, but what is your take on exactly how this message from the cdc has been sent this time with the language such as the war has changed, when even, as you said, only a small minority of vaccinated people will get an
infection. so, just exactly how much of a shift in our understanding of the danger here should we really be taking in >> well, that's a really good question what you're finding is people's perspective is shift ago bit there are actually several things we have learned about delta over recent weeks. what i described earlier, the change in potential of breakthrough infections, but what we have also seen is the level of contagiousness, or the transmissibility is really quite high it's why cases have more than quadrupled in recent weeks and why delta makes up the vast majority of cory infections. you put it together, and it pantsds a picture of -- the good news is some of the precautions we learned worked, like masking,
in particular, but the real key is vaccination we have continued thankfully to find the vaccines are highly infective, and fine if you get a breakthrough infection, it's likely to be mild. the problem is if you're not vaccinated, i believe you're in more danger than last year with milder version of covid-19. >> why have israel and some european countries started administration a third booster shot, and we have not? >> well, israel is doing that based on internal data that they have selected. for us to make the decision about boosters, we look at a numb gere of data sets we're looking at israeli data, also looking at data from the uk, looking at our own data as well in addition to all of that, data that pharmaceutical companies have put it well putting it all together is how we'll make our assessment.
there are frequent meetings taking place inside the administration on that it's an important priority, especially for people who may be in higher risk, including those immunocompromised. i think you'd see coming more from the administration in terms of booster soon, but if and when a booster is required, we'll be ready to distribute it. >> ahead of a federal mask man dade, did the cdc act too early to take that off >> the cdc's decision about two months ago, when they said people now have a choice about whether they wear masks or not, that was based on data that they had with the alpha variant and the pre-alpha variant of covid-19 the data from those variants said, if you actually did have a breakthrough infection, your risks of transmitting it to
someone else was quite low it was on the basis of that science that the cdc felt comfortable, but what happened is the science changed because of delta the delta variant is different it turned out that that same low risks of transmission and breakthrough did not hold with delta. that is why the cdc ultimately felt it was necessary to shift its guidance >> dr. murthy, we appreciate your time and explanation. thank you very much. >> of course it's good to be with you take care. up next, mike santoli taking a look at the buyback boom wh a gatood name for the broader market we'll be right back.
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glowing skin, and healthy nails. and introducing jelly beans with two times more biotin. . stock finished today slightly lower let's go back to mike santoli. buybacks are on the rise. >> probably at record levels in absolute terms this year, especially getting going after earnings season. this from b of a, it's a cumulative total of buybacks since the year 2000. compared to absolute gains in the dallas level wages really stagnated one interesting thing to noel, though, with the recent employment levels, and the
government support payments, you have seen this up tick in wages, and you wonder if this fits in with a theme of being able to do it all the overall market might not be that big in aggregate the etf relative to the s&p 500 so far this year, it's been outperforming. investors, so far this year, are rewarding companies that are consistent returners of capital. it goes along, sara, with the quality trade we were talking about earlier. >> if you were a politician, you my interpret it as buybacks -- >> they'll make use of it, but companies will be, like, we're raising rates. up next, a streaming lawsuit, the war of words between disney and scarlet
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shows no signs of slowing down julia boorstin has the latest details. >> reporter: well, scarlet johanneson is say ising the studio's main focus is the sub zriesh base and the stars and studio interest are no longer aligned. sources say be every this lawsuit, disney was starting to talk to talent about giving additional compensation for summer movies, including cru ella and black widow, once the films were nearing the end of their theatrical run warper media paid additional $200 million to talent as a back-end bonus to compensate for hbomax disney did not buy out the back-end payments to its stars now scarlet johanneson's suit alleges disney isn't adequately compensating her for the value she brings to all of disney
plus disney says the lawsuit has no merit and has quote callous disregard for the effect of the pandemic johanneson's agent striking back saying, quote, disney's direct attack on her character and all else they implied is beneath the company that many of us in the creative community have worked with successfully for decades. one thing is for sure, source are telling me we should expect studios to increasingly pay talent up front as netflix does rather than based on performance, because that would give them a lot more flexibility how they might want to release these films. >> absolute lit. presumably, they'll have the plan set beforehand, it's not like this one, where it was presumed it will be a theatrical release only and they changed along the way because of the pandemic >> reporter: absolutely. yeah this contract was originally signed back in 2019. >> there you go, thank you very much back-to-school shopping is in full swing. d have a great lineup of retail
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"closing bell" will have some of the season's biggest retailers and apparel to discuss the back-to-school shopping season we will kick it off with the ceo of kohl's, michelle gass tim boyle, wednesday, target chairman and ceo brian cornell and cbs health ceo and adidas and bed bath & beyond and we wrap up on friday with old navy ceo nancy green. plus there's more to tell you about. ed on on monday, we have an interview with christopher waller, the federal reserve governor now they come out and express their views about weather and inflation is transitory, should we be tapering sooner rather than later obviously, we always get to hear from the governor, they get a vote. >> they get a vote and are more consistent with what the chair
is thinking often. this willed fed speak next week as they try to refine the message and we will have to navigate what the breathe picture looks like >> we have some soft data. the gdp football came in 2 points below expected. higher home sales and the market rallies because there is an idea the fed will be more patient when it comes to scaling back the stimulus or raising interest rates. it's very much a fact roar here. >> we have the consumption expendture data today which was basically about the fed's inflation measure came in light. >> light >> in theory, it buys time and flexibility for the fed to wait. >> we go into a seasonally week period >> that the a tricky piece right now. because the market has not been showing too much panic it's slowed down there is a little wear and tear. august is a little tough volatility sometimes pops up >> you seen interest rate
treasury yields down >> yes >> that was a brigg surprise earnings have been a bit of a bummer on the tech side. >> in some terms they have been great. people got ahead of themselves it's not been a help you will be here, i think you have this to yourself next week. >> will ford cross will be joining us from the london studio it's a treat he has been out there to see family finally happy weekend, everyone. that will do it for us on "closing bell. "fast money" starts now. >> overlooking new york's time's square, this is" "fast money." tonight, there is gold in them chart,t at least the chart master is here to tell us what he is seeing next. and the energy sector snapping an eight-month wink streak, posting the worst month since september. but is there a way to play the energy space we got some answers. plus, we bay have one big week of earnings be