tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC July 30, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
being compared against right now. another female led superhero movie. the other movie to compare to is the wonder woman movie 1984 from warner brothers, the movie simultaneously released on hbo max without paying anything additional and also in theaters but at a much tougher time for the box office >> all right just a remarkable turn for -- to a situation coming one way or another, j.b. thanks that does it for us. the judge. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour one of the world's closely followed investors says it's probably time to sell stocks. the new call from guggenheim chief investment officer who joins us momentarily in a cnbc exclusive. our investment committee with me to debate on whether we are at peak everything. with me for the hour today shannon saccocia jason. rob. good to see everybody. look at the markets.
stocks been lower on the final trading day of july. that's where we are now. dow is down 120. nasdaq is off as well. it's the comments, though in that new note from mr. minert grabbed our attention. he joins us now in a cnbc exclusive interview. good to have you on >> great, scott, thanks for having me >> i'm looking at your note today, the title of which is things couldn't be better. but it's the last line of the note that may be the most important of all where you say, quote, all in all, as far as markets and the economy are concerned, things couldn't be better if that's the case, i guess it's time to sell why are you making this call today? >> well, first off, the comment that things couldn't be better is things if things couldn't be better there is no upside left, right, so you might as well go to cash or change your strategy. but the thing that's bothering me, scott, iswhile i think the expansion has legs and lots of room to run, the surge in the
pandemic is the mind-numbing when you look at the absolute number of cases we get in increase week to week, we are reaching levels where we were at, like, last october, where we were in lockdown and given the transmission rate of the delta variant it's very likely within two to three weeks we could be back to peak levels. it just seems to me, just as was the case back in february of 2020 when i came on cnbc and i talked about the likelihood that the market was completely ignoring it, as we were making new highs, this feels exactly the same and so if we're going to have lockdowns, which i think will be highly likely, it's going to effect the economy and it's going to dent investor sentiment. so, you know, it might be a good time to -- to take some risk off the table. and -- and save some dry powder
for the possibility that we could see a severe correction here later in the summer >> let me go at a couple things you said you said lockdowns seem highly likely why do you say that? there doesn't seem a appetite for that you liken things to last october. it's important to note we didn't have the vaccine last october. dr. gottlieb was on "squawk box. saying the vaccines work well in the cdc dat she showed a 25 fold reduction in risk of death 25 fold reduction in risk of hospitalization and 8-fold reduction in restrictive of disease. and he says we are probably further aalong in the delta variant thing than people think. and the peak could be much sooner, scott >> sure. that could be the case, scott. i mean, i think that i'm not an expert in this but i often talk about, you know, i watch data
and, you know, the transmission rate for the delta variant is two to three times that of the variant we were dealing with last october with only half of our country vaccinated, and the group who is most affected by the delta variant, which is the younger population making up the majority of those people, and the high transmission rate, you know, i think we're going to get a surge in cases now, you know, i mean we are seeing it now. if that's the case, then we have to start questioning whether schools are going to reopen, given that it's concentrated in younger people that's going to keep parents at home and not going back to the workforce. and then in, you know, some areas, where there is a proclivity to move quickly into a lockdown, that, you know, we're going to probably see
those areas want to do it again in order to protect the population i think the one thing we can conclude, just like the last time around, there will be some areas that lock down and some areas that stay open and so, you know, it's -- as it was back then -- it wasn't a nationwide lockdown. but it is enough to dent the enthusiasm for risk assets and certainly could have impact on profitability in the near term >> there is just no indication, though, that we're going to lock down the -- that is has to be the base case at this point, don't you agree? >> well, you know, that was the same place we were back in february of 2020 >> with you we didn't have a vaccine though the vaccine is a game-changer. you have to admit that >> sure. absolutely but it's only half the country right. we still have approximately 150
million people in this country who are not vaccinated and with a transmission rate that is over 2 times higher than what we had with the original variant, we're going to see a big, big increase in cases and then we're going to find out, you know, what political pressures come to bear and what uncertainty it starts to raise in the minds of investors. if it weren't for the fact, scott, we're at such, you know, lofty valuations, whether it's in areas like stocks, or whether it's with credit spreads in below investment grade bonds, i wouldn't be nearly as concerned. but, we are coming into a seasonally weak period of time ned davis research shows in the second year of a stock market rally there is a correction on average around 16% you know, all the pieces are in place. and so, you know, it could just
very well be that the -- the news and the unexpected rise in covid cases is the catalyst that sets off the summer correction, which actually i've been talking about for quite a while >> the counter, of course, is that maybe valuations aren't that rich if you consider interest rates and you yourself point out in your note that august is traditionally a time where long rates go down. with rates where they are, how can you make the case that stocks are that expensive? >> well, i think, look, i think that given where we have been upon a relative basis stocks are much more expensive than we were in the last 12 months. i agree with you i believe before the economic expansion ends, before we get to the next recession that we're likely to see multiples perhaps even higher than we are today and see earnings significantly
higher i just was on another network this week and said, look, i think before we get to the next recession we'll have the s&p at 5,000 or high are. but at the same time, you know, i recognize that there are opportunities. and there are times when risk -- you know, risks are rising and, you know, it's not so imprudent to, you know -- if you've got some profits to be taking profits and reducing risk i often quote baron von rothschild who when asked the secret of his great wealth said, i sold early to me it just makes sense we have enough uncertainty given the seasonal pattern, given the history of stock market returns, given the risk of the pandemic, on top of that valuations, you know, we're not early. right? you know, in isn't the beginning
of a major stock market rally. that started last march or a year ago march and so, you know, scott, i'm a guy who believes in the preservation of capital. and i think for people, you know, as people know, i've been very bullish you know, there is a time to maybe take some profits and derisk and look for a better opportunity >> there is a debate world while having right now of whether we are in a quote, unquote, peak everything environment right, if you look at some of the results this week from big tech, for example, you look at the revenue growth numbers, scott, alphabet, 62% year over year facebook, 56%. apple 36 amazon 27% microsoft 21 knows are astounding numbers i think we grow on that. maybe they can never be that good again but a little bit less than that is not so bad either, is it >> i agree with that too
but, you know, i love the story -- for those who know allen shaw, the great dean of technical analysis, when he was a fundamental analyst he worked with an older gentleman. and they had a conference call with a ceo and the ceo said things couldn't be better. and after they hung up the phone, the senior guy said to allen, okay, put out a sell recommendation and he goes what do you mean put out a sell recommendation >> the ceo just told us things couldn't be better that's the way i kind of feel here, scott. things couldn't be better >> what about the fed? what role do that play here? you heard the chairman earlier saying we're a ways off from where the economy needs to be. one side of the mandate, inflation. okay that's fine. but the fed chairman is stuck on the issue of employment. now, you did have st. louis fed president bullard today saying the fed should taper in the fall and finish by early next year. what role is all of that conversation playing here?
>> well, i mean, i think that, you know, anything that starts the market to believe that -- that the fed will taper early is actually good for bonds, because that is, you know, increasing the -- and i mean treasury bonds. because that's increasing the risk that any will -- the fed will cause a economic slowdown faster than anticipated. but the other side of this is, you know, the majority of the- of the fomc, the majority of fed presidents, and certainly the board of governors don't believe that we're anywhere near the time we're going to start reducing asset purchases and so i think, scott, the time line we're working with is sometime probably in december, the fed will announced their plan and just like they did the las time they'll wait for a period of time, which i think is more
likely to be six months before they start to implement their plan for tapering. and then it will take them about a year, which will put us into the middle of 2023 before we end tapering and then we'll probably have a couple of years before any start raising rates >> okay >> and you can play that out against the backdrop of the employment data. and it matches up pretty well >> i go back to the word that people have mentioned from the beginning of the rally, from the beginning it feels like of time and certainly since '08. liquidity, liquidity, liquidity. you are making the runway even longer for how much this liquidity will be impacting the stock market that along with low interest rates, doesn't that keep stocks from having a big tumble >> yeah, and that's why -- that's what i point to in the piece i just released this morning, that, you know, all of this liquidity out there, the reaction function of the policy makers to instantly respond to
this kind of stuff does help mitigate the risk. i'm not talking about a stock market selloff of 35%, which is what we got back in 2020 but a correction, something in the neighborhood of between 10% and 20% >> that's painful >> we're overdue >> that's painful. you don't have to go 30% to feel the pain 15% to 20% hits a lot of people really hard >> i think so. and i think we're going to catch a lot of -- catch a lot of people by surprise and, you know, that's why -- you know, as i'm often known for having out of consensus views, you know, i feel that whether i'm right or wrong i have an obligation to our clients to basically say, hey, look, you know, this is what the data tells me and it's not going to be a -- as mark twain, history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme.
a 10% or 20% correction at this point could be painful but thing i want to be clear about, scott is if i am right, that 10% to 20% correction will be a great buying opportunity. >> scott, if you oblige me i'd like my investment committee involved in the conversation i know they have questions for you starting with josh brown >> hey, scott, nice to see you i read your piece this morning and share your concern about the rate of spread of the delta variant and just in idea that maybe we're not ready for -- for how quickly that could ramp up to some of the numbers we were dealing with but what if you have it backwards? what if -- what if the delta variant is what we needed to wake up the half of the country that's been resistant to vaccines we've now got evidence in the last week that states with the lowest vaccination rates and -- and the highest incidences of soaring cases are now seeing people running for vaccines.
arkansas, florida, louisiana, missouri and nevada in the last week where they have low vaccination rates and a lot of cases, people are racing to get vaccinated so what if that's actually a good thing, because people would prefer not to send their kids back to school in september in masks. and this was the wakeup call we needed i know it's not good when people get sick, but what if that's how it plays out the second part of that is no offense, calling for a possible 10% correction is not particularly profound, quiveren that since 1950 we had 36 corrections. so that's one on average every 20 months or so. so like i almost feel as though, like yeah, of course 10% can happen happens all the time i want your reaction to those two ideas >> let me also before you answer that, scott, we are getting new data in terms of the level of vaccinations where the u.s. -- news just coming out moments ago, where the u.s. scenes the
highest number of newly vaccinated people since july 1st. to josh's point, if you want to call it new fear is prompting people to get vaccinated >> right and, look, i think to that point what -- that is being made here is that's good it's just even at that sort of pace, if you believe, you know, the data, where, you know, we're sitting around 60,000 cases a day and it's rising. and there is a two-week incubation period, all the vaccines in the world that we give people in the next two weeks isn't going to keep us from, you know, tripling that number of cases, which would be -- >> but it could keep us from lockdowns >> right and well then we get to the political question, right? and the lockdowns are entirely a political question in my mind. but i want to say. i want to answer the second question, josh, which i think is
excellent. i think what you are saying is obvious in terms of, you know, the likelihood of a correction there is nothing unusual here. right? and i often tell people, i love people who have a grasp for the obvious. because they're so uncommon. and i think you're right it is obvious. and, you know, scott just made a comment a moment ago, you know a 10% to 20% correction here could be pretty painful for some people so, you know, yeah, i agree with you 100%, you know, i like to basically try to look for the obvious things which i think the market is just asleep on >> can you give us more clarity on exactly how you are personally positioning guggenheim and the money that you are in charge of there or at least advising on how you would be positioned here given your call >> sure. yeah, i mean, look, the thing is i never -- i never believe
myself 100%. and so what we've done is over the course of the last few weeks -- and especially in the past week, is, you know, we've been reducing our exposure to high-yield bonds and accounts where we have, you know, cross-over vimt from investment grade to below investment grade. in the high-yield accounts we've been systemically reducing triple c exposure and now, you know, we've been cutting back our single b exposure. so, you know, we are derisking you know, we are, you know, looking for opportunities perhaps to in some of our macro accounts to consider situations where we could do put spreads or something like this that would give us protection to the downside and, you know, in terms of our equity holdings, candidly, the majority of those are in spacs
at this point. and, you know, as we all know spacs are trading around the new issue price. and you know, i view the -- i view spacs as an option on euphoria and so some of them are working well and some of them aren't. and the ones that you don't see performing well when you get to that moment, you just basically elect to take your money back or sell it into the market if it's trading better than where the ipo came >> shannon has a question for you. shannon >> thanks, scott, really spesht the piece this morning in the area are you laid oh where we are talking about lower interest rates and fed on the sideline any sort of correction in my mind would reaccelerate the trend we have already seen from sort of value and epicenter stocks into growth stocks. you couple that with potentially some concerns about the behavioral response of the delta variant. you know, why wouldn't you
instead of selling out just be rotating into some of the higher quality, high balance sheet growth stocks of the period? >> well, you know, it's interesting, because we typically don't have mandates that are exclusively equities. and so, you know, for people who are in that situation, and they are, you know, in the position of maintaining equity positions, i think what you're saying makes absolutely perfect sense that would be a very good strategy we tend to be more macro in our clients' accounts. so we look at the opportunity to increase exposure to equities or reduce exposure to equities. and then, you know, as i just mentioned, you know, we -- we have basically at this point pretty much limited our exposure in those types of accounts to spacs. so, you know -- but i do believe
that if we were in the position where we needed to maintain a -- an exclusive exposure to equities with a mandate then i think your trade is actually a good trade >> scott, i appreciate it very much i really appreciate you coming on the "halftime report" today and discussing this note it's got a lot of people talking. i'm glad you could add insight where you think things are heading. >> i look forward to it again, scott >> scott minert, guggenheim's ciop rob, is he right? is it time to derisk >> i think we could get a pause, a selloff. but i think that's kind of getting too cute from my perspective. of course, the delta variant is taking center stage. but we think it's delayed and not derailed the economic recovery there is implications of delaying the economic recovery, because you saw these labor shortages and bottlenecks,
especially because most of this is happening in the e.m. and it puts upward pressure on price and inflation. the market didn't care about what happened yesterday. the gdp miss and then you had energy, financials and materials lead the way, scott so underneath all that you can explain the miss due to the pandemic but if you look -- if you look at the uk as a proxy, you saw big spikes in june now the infection rates are decelerating now and the important thing is hospitalizations are down 95%. certainly if you look at e.m. where the vaccination rates are much lower, it's certainly going to delay them a lot longer ultimately, this plays out in a slower way than it did before. the biggest worry i have is really once inflation expectations go higher and they start to persist, you have inflation. and so i think intermediate
term, i suspect that we might see some volatility around news around inflation, interest rates, delta variant but as we get through this, what you're going to see is an incredible reopening trade and so the way we are -- we are -- we are addressing things is in the higher earnings risk stocks, which are mainly in tech we're being a little more cautious and doing exactly what shannon said, which is we're taking advantage of the volatility we're seeing in the cyclical stocks. and if you look at yesterday, it looks like everybody else is too. so i don't think people buy that >> let me ask jason this if the delta variant if nothing else makes people nervous, jason and keeps people from putting money in the epicenter stocks or more cyclely natured napes and you lose the megacap techs as people question the growth trajectory from a sales
standpoint for all the stocks? what takes the market higher >> something a lot to download here minert made interesting comments with the delta variant, i think that's concerning. but, again, 50% of the population of the u.s. i should say is vaccinated. you know there was a gdp that was just mentioned, the market absorbed quickly the jobs numbers weren't great but what i would say is we can't fight the fed. the fed will continue to stimulate the markets until this jobs market gets better. and that's likely going to happen in september when i think we return to work and return to everything so i think when that happens and when we enter into that season i think that's a catalyst for the next leg higher from here >> josh brown, what about the idea of peak everything, especially from megacap tech you look at the numbers. i mean, they blow you away and they make you do have the
question of, is this as good as it gets? they can't repeat the numbers. amazon told you as much last night. what you were doing in the pandemic you can't do out of the pandemic for some of the companies, amazon, peloton, teladoc, zoom, those kinds of stocks maybe not those specifically but you get where i'm going. the growth trajectory for some of the companies as great as it may be is not going to be as great as it was. is that a problem or not >> i think you're exactly right. and that goes a long way to explain why amazon and netflix have been underperformers, because the way in which we consume a lot of what they put out there changes when we're not stuck in our houses. but that's consensus everybody is aware that we had these once in a lifetime e-commerce shopping booms last year look, everyone gets that somebody that bought a dishwasher in 2020 for their new kitchen doesn't need another one
in 2021. so i feel like that -- that story is already out there and so what i've been tryingto do is focus on the companies that are still putting up the amazing numbers. but it's less of a reopen story. and it's just more of an ongoing adoption story i've been using that term adoption a lot apple and google and to a slightly lesser extent facebook, these are companies where the lockdown comps aren't as difficult for them, because a lot of what they provide is not just for people sitting at home. and obviously google is an excellent example, having a huge amount of business associated with things like travel. and, of course, the need for of an iphone doesn't change whether or not you are in the house or not in the house that is a dividing line, judge i think it's a really good point you make so it doesn't have to be peak everything it can be just peak some things. in the case of amazon, we know the need for e-commerce is not going to be as acute this year
as last year i don't think anyone is surprised by that. the stock's having a great year. and they continue to invest a lot of money in logistics, et cetera, just like they did last year and maybe what with a little bit out of consensus was exactly how much money they are planning to spend. but we know that amazon does what amazon wants to do. >> is let me do this let's take a break we come back shannon has some interesting new additions to her portfolio you need to hear about. we'll do it next yeah, it's kind of our thing. huh, that's a great deal... what if i'm new to at&t? cam, can you...? hey...but what about for existing customers? same deal (breathless) it's the same deal is he ok? it's not complicated. with at&t, everyone can ace back to school with our best deals on every smartphone - like the samsung galaxy s21 5g for free. ♪ ♪ experience, hyper performance that takes you further. at the lexus golden opportunity sales event.
i'm jon fortt and here is the cnbc news update at this hour new documents showing former president trump told justice department top officials to declare the 2020 presidential election was corrupt even as they told him they couldn't find any evidence of widespread election fraud. the comments come from firsthand notes of a phone call in late december between trump and then attorney general jeffrey rosen and others in texas, a two-day march for voting the rights arrived in the state capital. 100 people making the 30-mile march former exact congressman beto o'rourke and religious leaders. tornadoes in new jersey. severe storms trying reported a pair of twisters roofs torn off houses, trees and boats tossed ornd. flash flooding and hail the size
a half dollar. in virginias the first arrivals from afghanistan, translators and others facing retaliation from taliban for helping the u.s. war effort. 200 afghans flew in to washington, d.c. and bussed to an army base for medical screenings and on the news standing up for the thousands of allies who fought shoulder to shoulder with american troops against the taliban. tonight at 7 eastern scott, back to you >> shannon saccocia, let's come to you now because you bought the qs and added to netflix peak everything, you say no way. >> well, i think it's peak some things i just don't think it's peak everything and so, you know, to -- consistent with what josh said and really what scott was saying as well i think we're sberpg the period of chop and i think there are going to be concerns about the reopening trade. joe terranova said reopening can't happen twice could it be delayed? perhaps. but in the interim i look at a
company like netflix, the ability to continue to grow subscribers. look at this as a long-term hold it's been a long-term hold for me great time to add and position myself in the next couple years when they release new content. they have some carbon the sidelines. when you have dividend-paying stocks you are constantly getting new cash to invest i thought in the next four to six weeks, shorter term trades that is normal for me. but i thought having a position in the qs is a great way to continue to have equities exposure which i think is appropriate. but a place that i think is a little bit better protected if we do continue with some of the covid worries weigh on the markets in the next few weeks >> you bought more netflix and disney i failed to mention disney take me through both of those, please >> yeah, i mean i think continuing to see streaming be an incredibly important part of the way we consume information i understand that this is the summer of everything outside of the house. i think, you know, we're going to rotate back to consuming more
media online i think that disney and netflix are coming out to be the two strongest players in this space. and, again, we still haven't seen parks revenue for disney come back. we're ahead of the earnings for them i think it's a great time to initiate a larger position in the stock as we move through what i think will continue to be strong positive trends for the park revenue >> all right seeing disney shares modestly sell off today then skyworks. sinking despite beating last night which meant we get steve weiss on the phone because he has been talking about it leading up to the report i'm looking at the stock i hope you're not. it's down about 8.33%. what do you do tell people who followed you into the name, steve? >> well, you do what i did you buy more look, i spoke to the ceo today it was a phenomenal quarter. it was a great conference call i think there is some misunderstanding in terms of the margins which relate to covid.
their own fabs which didn't hurt but for customers needing a couple more components that's where it hurt the margins. even though the margins were up quarter to quarter look, this is the beginning of a 10-year 5g cycle if you listen to the customers that they talked about, that they have new design for it's phenomenal. if you own apple there is no way not to own this because they are the supplier for rf chips. but the total addressable market for this company increased exponentially. it used to be phones now it's the entire world. peloton, autos and it's selling despite growing earnings at 73% which won't be sustainable but they'll grow them around 15% to 20% you're paying a discount for the mechanic i bought more, stocks down 10% i love for this to happen. if you're a long-term investor, you got to love for it to happen as well. yeah the quarter is great >> where did you buy more at --
what's the number you bought at >> i bought more down 17.5 >> all right a little bit lower from here what about korvo, more of that too? >> i did buy more. skyworks i bought today. but korvo bought on the print. prematurely a little down from where i added to it. but they're different companies, the same type of rf business but korvo business is more broad are. doesn't mean they report the same quarter even qualcomm is down after a phenomenal quarter this is when you buy, step up, when you don't run and sell. so i love them both >> all right bought more skyworks more korvo that's the headline steve, thank you very much ekve a good weekend see you next we >> thanks >> then robinhood positive after a rocky debut. we are hearing ou the investment committee sizes it up. next
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what did you think about the name would you buy it >> yeah, so i had a tough time with the business model here i mean, 80% of the business comes from payment for order flow which has been around forever. but that part -- that much of their business going that direction, that's heavy for me i think they're going to have to evolve they have to make available other services for clients if they want to compete with the schwabs and the other large active managers in the business. so that's my story it's not a buy for me here but i'd like to see them evolve and develop. they have benefitted from the environment, you know, the covid environment. that's the story for me >> rob, some wondering whether usage in trading has peaked among rae till investors the payment for order flow issue that jason brings up the fact that they are not as diversified as sofi or some of the other competitors we lump them in with are those real issues or is this
a few-day bump and then we're talking about it in a positive way in the months ahead? >> listen, i think they are real issues this is just not the type of stock new edge buys. it is a -- it is a business that's obviously heavily transactional. there is not a lot of value placed on transactional businesses from a p.e. perspective. in addition a hot stock that benefitted from a unique environment as the other guys talked about so i'm -- i wouldn't short it. that's for sure. but it's not the te ypof company we would own >> ask halftime is next. we are back after this
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a buck let's get op the same page i think the stock can get to 100. think about the multiples that people are paying for electric vehicle companies. multiple times price at a sales ratio multiple times gm is $1202 in billion with a market cap of 80 billion -- but the -- electric and autonomous driving, et cetera, i think the more possibility there is por for margin multiple expansion and that's how you get there i don't think it happens overnight. but i'm a long-term shareholder here >> all right appreciate that. i saw a question on twitter yesterday that i just loved. i wanted to do it on the show. hey, judge, can you ask the committee, especially those taking the long view how they differentiate between dead money and a slowly unfolding investment story in it seems to me waiting for a stock turn around two years has a high opportunity cost shannon how would you address that >> boy, it's certainly hard to do when you are a long-term
investor that's why you always revisit the thesis ibm is a great example waiting for the current ceo to be able to execute a very meaningful turn around in this business and then we get the news that whitehurst, the former ceo of red hat leaving the company. pushes the time line out further. you need to remain disciplined constantly looking at the opportunity and make sure you don't fall in love with anything and the thesis hasn't been disrupted >> okay, dead money versus slowly unfolding, may have have to wait a while, jason what's the answer here >> yeah, it's a great question for me, the theme that i think about is clean energy. ico has been a great winner this year down 20%. one of the points i heard on the show over the last couple weeks it's difficult if i think for example, building evs, getting, building evs and what that is. but the theme is very important. i think it will continue to grow but it's taking a while for the
infrastructure to support it these are stories that you have to stick to, stay long, be committed. >> all right we appreciate that another busy week of earnings just ahead the investment committee will be here to ll yteou how to play look at all the names. we size some of then up for you when we come back.
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all right we begin august with a very busy week of earnings josh brown front and center for you wsh uber, shake shack, live nation >> yeah, so the one i'm most concerned about is uber, because of the fact that we're kind of having the fits and starts with the reopen now and i wonder what that might mean for guidance on the ride hailing business so -- and just looking at the technicals, i mention it's in no man's land doesn't seem to be a decisive trend, doesn't appear to be a lot of confidence among the shareholder base for that stock. i definitely have the biggest concerns there live nation doesn't really give you a lot of information throughout the course of the quarter. so i don't think it's an earnings story i think what most people want to hear about is the second half of the year and the projections and how new shows are selling, et cetera i think people will be listening for the forward-looking and some
more color, frankly, non-financial beta but color on what's happening with all the big festivals that are so crucial in the next 12 months shock for me is not an earnings play they are bad at reportings earnings the stock tends to sell off after they report. i don't think they've quite figured how to kmujt with wall street but i don't care about that. the stock is having a wonderful street, but i don't care about that the stock is having a big year they've made big strides in things they've had to do like getting better at mobile orders, getting better at building tracks and drive throughs. i'm a happy shareholder and we'll see what happens >> jason, you bought more pnc financial. tell our viewers why >> i did so, for me, i mean pnc is probably about 10% off a 52-week high the deal with unc bank shares. that gives them great exposure
to the sun belt. i like it. i would just like to add more capital there. >> all right shannon -- i'm sorry rob seechen. you have new buys. garmin, aptiv, canadian. tell us the one you like best and we'll run. >> we bought out the opportunistic portfolio last week there are supplier components for software for electric and tech enabled vehicles. they're benefitting from the short term supply, demand in balance in the auto market as well as a shift toward electric vehicles and increased vehicle safety it's definitely a growth play. it trades at 45 times next year, but its eps is growing in 90%. this year and 40 next. so, we think it's a pretty attractive short-term investment >> i areatppcie that let me bounce. we'll do final trades next
all right. take a look at shares of pinterest today. here we go shares down 19%. shan, maybe this brings it full circle to the way we started this entire show, talking about momentum that was had during the pandemic and some of these stocks just are not going to be able to keep it up and for obvious reasons. what do you think? >> i think this is a great example of that. i think we need to pivot away from assuming that we're going to get all of our content
online and i think all of us investors need to be very careful about filling our basket with those companies that have proven that they can execute at a very high level in both a pre-pandemic and post-pandemic world. pinterest just needs to revamp here, reset. and i think that they'll be able to do so but i think any of these peak work-from-home, stay-at-home stocks are worthy of a second look in your portfolio >> it's resetting a lot lower. i think it's below the 200 is that what you've seen >> yeah. it's a dumpster fire listen, i think it's a great company. here's the problem just this idea that people are going to be sitting at home and playing with digital designs or -- look at etsy it's pretty obvious to me that one peaked we're not going to be doing arts and crafts anymore i put these in the same basket as, like, peloton. i don't think the companies are doing anything wrong i actually don't think they can
do anything differently. pinterest reported negative -- negative -- monthly average user that's not because pinterest all of a sudden is not a good service. it's because people have less of an interest in that. and you're going to see that in a lot of different stocks like this so, i really do think people need to reconsider, like, what aspects of 2020 will never be repeated again and so, you know, we'll see. this probably won't be the worst of them because pinterest was a popular service prior to the pandemic but, for me, technically it's -- there doesn't appear to be any logical place to want to step in and buy it wll tack a quick break. we'll come back. we will do final trades next nk f a pair of goggles can help your backhand get better... yeah! ...then your bank should help you budget even better. (laughing) virtual wallet® is so much more than a checking account. its low cash mode feature gives you at least 24 hours of extra time to help you avoid an overdraft fee.
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network, support and value-- without any tradeoffs. that's t-mobile for business. let's do final trades. shannon, you have the first one. >> salesforce reports in a few weeks but they're definitely already starting to make cancels on slack >> we'll see what happens there. have a good weekend. rob. >> canadien national resources it's canadian based enp company. we leveraged natural oil and gas prices gives us that cyclical valuation. the break even on oil is 30 bucks. so, it looks great >> down a couple percentage points today jason snipe? >> boss son scientific, elective
surgeries on the comeback train. >> josh brown? >> amazon. the trade on the breakout is now over, but the investment for me continues. i think the stock's worth hanging on to. >> number of price target reductions after amazon earnings we are going to see what happens next week. take a look at the market here dow is down triple digits at this moment. that's a loss of 120 we'll see you on the other side of the weekend "the exchange" begins now. thank you, scott hi everybody here's what's ahead as we close out the week howard marks of oak tree capital is with us, his take on the economy, markets and inflation oil giant chevron is having a stellar year as the energy sector outperforms we'll speak exclusively about today's earnings, the esg movement and the return of buy backs. and should china be considered a separate asset class from the rest of the world? a look at what's a