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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 26, 2021 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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the fundamentals are strong when you think about the so-called fourth industrial revolution bethe big tech giants at the forefront with that amazon headline if tends up being true or not but looking into crypto, they're at least looking into it that will be interesting if they mention anything else. >> jpmorgan says the peak in uk cases may be behind us speaking of which the judge has timely let's get to "the half." >> i'm scott wapner. front and center, what might be the biggest, most important week of the summer as the fed meets and mega tech companies begin reporting their earnings tomorrow we'll debate what's really at stake for your money and tom lee who will be along in a few minutes. joining me today, brenda vangelo, jim leventhal and steve weiss. we look at the markets there is the dow good for about 28. s&p 500, a fractional mover higher nasdaq higher by about 14
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points yield sitting on the ten-year at 1.27 pete, apple, microsoft, google they kick it all off tomorrow. gdp later on the fed meeting this week. how much is riding on what we'll learn? >> yeah, it's a monster week as we talked about last friday when i was on with you, we were talking about, what am i looking at most that's the most influential of that group? i think it's apple because of the diversification of what apple is and what tim cook created there. they've got the services, the wearables. obviously the phone. but we're also going to have to navigate through what's going on with china and how is the relationship going there there's a lot of different things not with apple but the u.s. and china and the influence that could be going forward as well so there's a lot of different things to unpack here when we're looking at all of these earnings i think microsoft is crushing it still, especially when i look at this year and they're steeling market share not always from amazon but some of the other players this is going to be a monstrous week and, obviously, i think
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apple is the one that's going to stir this whole thingmazing to strength they've had in previous quarters can they keep that up? i think they'll put up a big number >> apple, microsoft, amazon, facebook, all on your book even though you're underweight tech which is worth noting versus the benchmark, nonetheless, these stocks have had a nice run into these prints now. apple over a month up 12.5%. that stock back near a new high. microsoft at a new high. google hitting another record high today facebook up 9% it's been a nice run into the number that raises the bar, though, doesn't it >> i think it does these stocks have really lagged prior to mid-june. they've had a really nice move higher more recently expectations are high going into these numbers especially after such a tremendous first quarter for many of these companies. but i think it's important to not lump them altogether i think they each have their own individual story and just use
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amazon as an example that is one where we hear more about ad spending and how that could really contribute to their business model and profitability. that's a little bit of a game changer for that company so there are individual stories here to pay attention to but i think as a group we've seen an awfully nice move higher and we think there are opportunities elsewhere outside of tech in a lot of areas especially within health care. many names that have lagged this year and still have very practical valuations >> you did get a nice read through perhaps from snap on to the ad market, right for google and facebook. cramer mentioned that last friday on "squawk on the street." you could maybe take a little something from that as you look to results delivered this week what i want to know from you, though, is it going to be different this time? we all remember what happened last quarter these companies, one after the other, just knocked the cover off the ball in their earnings and the stocks went the opposite direction. a sell on the news
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now that we're up is what i said 12.5, 8.5, 9.5, 9.5 on microsoft, apple, amazon and google are we setting ourselves up for another sell on the news >> yeah, i think that's exactly the question to ask. let me also point out it wasn't just the first quarter reports but the fourth quarter reports that came out really great in late january, early february and the stocks languished in february and march it really was almost a six-month consolidation period i think you have to differentiate amongst the stocks if i look at apple as an example and that's my top pick in that space, yes, it's broken out to a new high but that breakout is fairly young it's about five, six weeks old when i look at its valuation, and i see what's going on with the orders to its suppliers going up 20% a couple of weeks ago, i think there's a lot of fundamental and technical reasons to think apple will continue you mentioned ads in google.
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i think google, you have to remember, google still, when you look at a five-year chart, lags the rest of the faang names. it's still playing catch-up there. it's had a fabulous one-year run. it's going to continue microsoft, which i own, is -- i am sort of saying at some point this has to top out. this -- you look at this chart it's a workhorse, a war horse. but even a war horse has to take a nap some time, has to break for lunch. i'm not saying that this earnings report is necessarily that but what i am saying is of those three, google and apple are my top picks and then there's a sleeper in there qualcomm is coming up later in the week that's a sleeper as well that needs to break out. this is, as far as the stock goes, it needs to break out or else i think it's going to be dead money the rest of the year. >> microsoft, by the way, pete, i'm going to get to you in a second, weiss. i'll give you a second to respond to him, pete, because i know how highly you think of
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microsoft. by the way, which gets a new street high target today $335 at jeffreys does microsoft need a rest we pull it up. i mentioned what the stock has done it's right there at a high it's less than a dollar off of a new 52-week high, new all-time high what do you think? >> yeah, i think that they continue to take market share in the space that we're talking about, cloud and because of that, that's a huge part of what they're doing. but that's not the only piece to the puzzle of what's going on right now. i think it's all -- everything is lining up right now for microsoft as well. we've got some numbers recently about pc sales and the rest of that type of thing they need into that. the gaming world they'll get bigger into that as well i think there's a lot of reasons to continue to be very, very bullish on this name and i don't think it's done yet. the options world has been telling us there's still plenty of upside. they are buying even further upside september even further upside out in october. so this isn't over yet in my
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opinion and i'm very bullish on what -- not just tonight it's not just about tonight. it's the reaction after tonight over the next couple of weeks or this week, i should say. the next couple of weeks that's what i think is going to be the determining factor. i think there's plenty of runway still for microsoft right now. >> we'll see if that stock hits a new record high. we continue to talk about it today. steve weiss who has apple, microsoft, amazon, facebook and alphabet apple reiterated d outperform today. amazon gets a new target of $48.50 at credit suisse. that's a 32% upside from here. alphabet reiterated by mkm partners we told you that stock hits a new high today facebook reiterate d buy at ban of america >> so you came to the right
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place. while farmer jim is asking the questions, i'm going to give you the answers. and here's the answer. any one stock doesn't matter you have so many reporting, some within minutes of one another, that it's going to be the totality of the reports that's going to be important for the market but i do expect to sell the news because the expectations have been set so incredibly high that even if they beat those, they are going to pause and they should. nothing goes up in a straight line forever and that's what we've seen apple, this is not an important quarter for apple. the next quarter will be important because that's when we'll have the front end of hopefully a new phone. that's supposed to be again the biggest phone they'll ever sell. in terms of microsoft, people lose sight of the fact this is like a fashion company with no competition. and by that, i mean that as long as they come out with the new fashion with the new windows operating unit, you have got to upgrade. so all the companies will upgrade. it's not a perfect subscription
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model. that, to me, you don't have to worry about that much. in terms of others, snap, twitter, gave window as you pointed out into the advertising tarket the question we have to ask, are they taking share or is the market continuing to expand? my bet is the market is continuing to expand that's where the dollars are going. so i'm fine with these -- i don't expect the market to have a huge move either way this week the fed meeting is as important as any single or all the companies reporting together and i think you have seen enough weakening economic news, including home sales today, where pal powell is going to ke going with what he's doing and there is the chance they should do some cutback on the tapering you'll hear more voices in the commentary saying that's the way to go, but it's going to be same old, same old with the fed on wednesday afternoon. >> so you have given -- >> there's a lot to get excited about. i'm sorry. a lot to get excited about but at the end of the day, i don't think it will be very exciting
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>> you've teed up our next guest perfectly. because fund strat's tom lee says a more risk-on environment is going to start either this week or next he's with us once again. tom, good to see you again >> great to see you, scott >> why is this about to happen, tom? >> i think the principal reason is we're finally getting some visibility that the delta variant is rolling over in the uk and it might sound strange to be talking about why the uk matters, but as you know, the delta variant went parabollic there first in june. lasted 45 days they have a vaccination rate similar to the u.s. and demographically similar. and it looks like delta doesn't just run through the whole country. it finally hits an end point 45 days later, which was july 17th, it's rolling over. that's going to mark the bottom for this whole risk-on fear. that's why we think epicenter stocks really ignite either this week or next week. >> jpmorgan just moments ago was
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talking about delta not a serious threat to growth david coston last night, poses a minimal risk, he says. is that what the market is showing you, tom it's sniffing out the exact uk data that you just referenced? >> yeah, it's interesting. if you did an overlay of the uk and it really was the inverse of epicenter stocks but it makes sense because the delta variant scares people because it evades vaccines it's a thousand times greater viral load and the r-0 is nine so there's a fear this could be hard to contain. that feeds into monetary policy, cap ex something businesses had to address in earnings calls. it's essential to the reopening narrative. and that's why i'm personally relieved that there is, you know, breakpoint that delta runs out of people to
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infect >> your target remains 4600, but you just mentioned it plays into central bank policy. >> yes >> if cases are going to roll over here in the next three to four weeks, doesn't that bring the fed back on the table to start their taper, maybe sooner than people expect does that upset your thesis in any way? >> scott, that's certainly a risk as you know, delta is one of only six variants being studied by the w.h.o another variant of concern is lamda in latin america delta is a cue of many, and i think there's still going to be central questions about how long vaccinations last before booster is needed. these are all going to be part of the fed's thinking. so i think compared to where they were in june, there's going to be less reasons for them to feel confident about shifting away from a dovish policy. even if economic data remains robust >> what do i do, though, with
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this technology stock question right on the cusp of these huge earnings reports are we setting ourselves up for another sell on the news because the market is then going to start to rotate back to the cyclical stocks and away from tech >> it's a good question, scott tech is larger in aggregate than the entire epicenter sector. we know market breadth has been improving. to me, the second half 10% rally we're picturing includes technology, and there's a ton of l laggards there i just think part of the thinking for large cap investors is whatever is not up 25% for the full year, i'm buying because it's going to catch up >> steve weiss, you have something for tom lee? >> i do. tom, i think you're right on your analysis on the markets
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becoming more comfortable with delta. i just think your timing is a little late. it will continue, but that's exactly what we saw last week. delta took the market down on monday and then we got all the news and people start thinking about it and saying, yes, it's much more contagious but the impact that it has on the economy, any economy is going to be absolutely minimal because of the vaccination rates, number one, and number two, because those that do get it are generally getting asymptom at -- again if you are vaccinated, the breakthrough i'm talking about infections, they're asymptomatic there's nothing there. and given where the economic strength is in this country, those are the highly vaccinated areas. so my point is that's why the market rallied for four days and such great rally after delta took it down on monday >> steve, if you think this rally that's a delta relief rally the last four days, maybe you're right i remember in early june you told me i was late for upgrading faang early june
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it's been up almost 15% since. so i don't -- i think it's a relative word -- >> it was up a lot, but, tom, yes, it's up 15% then but look at the move prior to that. >> right, but tom -- >> tom is suggesting that he's not late so you don't have to time everything -- >> no, i -- >> right >> he's five days later. if you want to score it like that but his point is there's going to be a huge runway ahead. almost 200 s&p points and a lot of that is going to be driven by the cyclical so-called epicenter stocks in which he claimed i'm sorry for jumping in there, tom. you can come back at weiss in your own right and i'll hand you the ba ton to do just that. but i think that's what you're saying >> i agree, scott. the relief that we expect the market to have if the delta variant has an end point is going to last a long time.
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the anxiety has been building for 45 days. we have clients, zooms, i think the central question was always, when it delta going to end is this going to make the vaccine effort a failure what's the next therapeutic? it was creating a ton of anxiety. i don't think it's relieved after five days of rally it's going to last months, really into year end >> and steve, jim cramer tweeting just a few moments ago, it sort of plays on this same theme. not sort of, it really does. if covid peaks, he says, you'll want to own everything except utilities and consumer packaged goods. you agree with that, steve >> yeah, look. look at the liquidity in the market that's not new news. and look, tom does phenomenal work jim does good work, and i say, it's my point of view. that's what will happen. it depends where you are >> part of the point, i think that both gentlemen are making,
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is that the market is still underestimating the upside once you get past the delta variant fears. if jim was sitting here, he would say just that. it sounds like that's more of what we're saying here not like we get it, but we don't get it enough. >> right well, let's go to a very important point that tom made, which is on the booster shots and the variants the variant is going to keep coming and right now, the mrna vaccines -- forget about j sg j. forget about astrazeneca they're ineffective. if you have a choice you get the mrna vaccines. and they are working against the variants we see information coming out of israel which is months ahead of us in terms of the vaccine, pfizer vaccine and they are saying that people 65 and older, you will need a booster. you will need a booster here so then the question is, what's the uptick on the booster and will that be a worry for the
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market so that could be and i think that's a great point that tom makes about that. that's why you still want that wall of worry in the market because if you get that euphoric, covid is done, it's over, bang, then you get a blow-off rally and then, hey, then we are going to rest and retreat for a while. that's why i'm positive on the market because i think there's always that apprehension >> tom >> and liquidity >> tom, i'll let you respond and then brenda has a question >> yeah, i agree with steve. i think there's still plenty to worry about because much of the world doesn't have vaccine penetration. they have to resort to blunt instruments like shutdowns so i think the market will have plenty to worry about, but as you know, eventually it leads to a synchronized global recovery maybe 2022 and that's going to extend the cycle >> you also think, tom, that stocks like -- you mentioned these specifically, amazon, visa, apple, have the potential to rally another 20% from here >> yeah, easily.
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these are important brand names. they're going to have great growth this year their valuations are reasonable. if there's broad market breadth and attack has a bid, which we expect because rates are behaving, that's going to be a great environment to own tech and faang into year end. >> that's like the jim cramer thing. if you get past this you own everything but utilities and consumer packaged. you'll want to continue to own tech if the coast is clear, so to speak, on delta, then own all those epicenter names as well. brenda, what you got >> tom, what do you think of areas outside of large-cap, particularly small cap growth stocks that had a great year last year but have really lagged this year, up less than 5% you think there's opportunity there heading into the second half of the year >> yeah, i like small caps they've got high beta to cyclicals. and they do trade really closely to credit especially ccc and international stocks and i think when you look at the
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linkages in the last 45 days, two of the three have been tough because -- hasn't rallied to ccc levels i think economic visibility weakened i think all of this is reversing. iwm and small caps should do better than the s&p in the second half. something better than 10%. >> hey, tom, if cramer says stay away from utilities and consumer packaged goods, what do you say stay away from >> i'd actually say, i agree utilities don't look great consumer staples don't look great. i'm on the cusp, not sure what to make of real estate but there's been relative weakening in the past month. i might throw in reits i am in a pro-reflation, pro-asset-based trade but it's just the cap rates have gotten so low in real estate that it's tough. >> they've had a nice move for certain. farmer jim for tom lee
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>> always good to have you on the show i'm in lock step one thing i was looking at this morning and i'll tell you, it caused me just a bit of concern is the growth rate projected in earnings for next year has declined from 17% to 10% now let's be honest. both sets of numbers, 21 and 22, have shot up it's just that, obviously, some growth has been pulled forward into this year when i look at that 10% growth rate and i compare it to the multiple on the market of 21, does that peg ratio of 2.1 cause you any concern or how do you feel about it? >> it's a great question, jim. so if i assumed consensus was right and 10% earnings growth, the ratio is actually appropriate because even if growth rates were seven, actually i would think that the peg ratio would be higher. i know it sounds strange but peg
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goes higher as you get towards single digits. but i think 2022 eps estimates are grossly low. most analysts are still only forecasting cyclical stocks to get to 2019 margin levels. i think it's going to be more appropriate to think of cyclicals having all-time high margins because of all this cost cutting. plus they've gone asset light and re-engineered the processes. on the net income margin side cost to debt is so low that you'll see eye-popping profit margins next year. s&p earnings could be well above 240, 250 >> when does the fed take some of the accommodation away, tom, and how is the market really going to react >> yeah, scott, it's a good question, and i'm not a great fed forecaster >> you are forecasting everything else. so let's just go there >> yeah, i think that they are going to err on the side of
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caution because covid is not being eradicated by vaccinations the real solution is going to be therapeutics before everyone catches covid. and that's the reason the fed will actually have a dovish tilt so i think you're still talking 2023 >> and the market will be fine whenever it happens or does that sort of end this current iteration of the party >> well, something that we are -- our team, our data science team is working on is really examining negative rate regimes which, by the way, is about 25% of all times in history. it's a pretty extended period negative real rates. negative real rate environment, assets like real estate and equities do extraordinarily well so i think this is a time when stocks may outperform people's expectations for quite a long time >> that's a great place to leave it tom lee, appreciate it talk to you again soon still ahead -- the escalating crackdown in china. education and property stocks are selling off heavily now. we'll find out what pete is
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seeing in the options market with chinese stocks and how the investment committee is playing that story you can always watch or listen to us live on the gino the cnbc app we're back right after this. ing turkey hill chocolate chip cookie dough creamy premium ice cream and chasing fireflies. don't worry about me. i'm fine. you can't beat turkey hill memories. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity.
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we are back. chinese tech and education stocks plunging today. look at those moves, steve weiss. we've talked to you about some of these names which you used to invest in, in the past not the ones specifically on the screen but the alibabas, for
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example. you are short again. also short penduoduo and bendi >> you can't own these stocks. it's almost irresponsible as a fund manager when people tell me they're cheap, i tell you, how do you know that? you own a v.i.e. structure you may wind up with owning a bagel, owning zero so they are going lower. we're in a cold war. the new weaponry in cold war is financial and hacking. this is financial. the chinese government is cutting back on billionaires you think they'll be kind to shareholders in the u.s. just get out find other ways to lose money if that's your thing or find ways to make money in other tech stocks stay away from these too much risk. >> that's what cramer said this
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morning. whatever it is, you have to get out. pete, do you dare stick your toe in the options pool here because a lot of these names have sold off so much or what? >> yeah, you know what, what we're seeing, skots, this is certain trends we see with the options world. what we're seeing lately has been some upside call buying in some of these names. and a lot of names you mentioned. the tals and you go through the long list the fxi. all of which have been getting hammered and all of which we're seeing upside call buying. when they're wrong, time after time after time, i think those are the times we have to say, you know what, we're going to hold off for right now so i would agree with steve and i've said this for a while now those chinese names, i am not owning those stocks. i'll own the options at times with both calls and puts but in terms of the stocks themselves i just think there's too much going on behind the scenes right now to make sense and we can't
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make sense of it we don't know the legalities of a lot of the things going on as steve said, this is the cold war in the financial aspect of it there's a lot going on but you can be in some of the options. i still like the ev space when looking at china but outside of that, i think you have to be hands off right now and i think if you're going to want to participate at all it's going to have to be in the options world. >> what if evs are next? you just don't know. you don't know what's next like a neo which you have and maybe you're still in in one form or another. >> yep, yep, you're exactly right. there's a lot of these various names. in the ev space, of the names, i like that one the very best. they've been a lot more right consistently in that name but, scott, you're right. the problem right now with these chinese names is there are so many different things that we just don't know enough and because of that, i think steve is exactly right a lot of this is hands off you're not just trying to pick
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bottoms which is never really the right strategy anyway, but the reality is when i see nio, i still do react because they've been right in the past and until they start to be wrong, more consistently, i'll still be in a name like that >> brenda, how do you balance growth versus risk that's what this story comes down to. being enticed by the growth prospects of some of these companies and then having to weigh whatever risk comes along with that story as you are investing in mutual funds or whatever on behalf of your clients. >> yeah, i think you just summed it up perfectly. this is still -- china is still an incredible growth market, especially considering the consumer and the power that could be had there over the next many years relative to the u.s we also have a scenario where valuations broadly are more attractive than the u.s. but it comes at a risk and it has many times in history come at a risk in investing in china. so our suggestion is to go with a more broad exposure, not individual stock exposure, per
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se, that investing in an etf or an actively managed fund with analysts that are on the ground and are really understanding that the nuances of all of these stories and can really build a portfolio around those >> the problem with that, you know, i understand your perspective. i respect it fxi, for example, right. if you'll just buy an etf and go for a broad swath of stocks. that in and of itself, it's almost a new low today sitting 50 cents above that point. that just underscores why some are saying just stay away altogether from anything that has exposure and i'm looking at it right here. down 5% today is the fxi farmer jim, how do you see this? >> first off, i think you know the chinese stocks are not my cup of tea just not where i play but steve is absolutely right. this is the front line in the new cold war that we're engaging in the one wrinkle to this is that this does seem to me like the chinese are cutting off their
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nose to spite their face i think what they are doing here is they are responding to the s.e.c. mandate that started in march where chinese companies have to report in accordance with american standards. the point being we're in a back and forth one side shoots the other side shoots. there's room for improvement because this isn't good for anybody. it's not good for american investors to see stocks get clobbered. it's not good for the chinese either so, yes, this is the front line but this is a lot of self-inflicted wounds that i think is an easy place for detente to start >> i even think about back to the opacity of certain things without government intervention. pete, look at luckin coffee which i remember, if i'm correct, you are an investor in. you get burned because of the lack of vision into exactly what's happening inside some of these businesses >> you're exactly right, scott
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and that's a great example this is a name i did very well in for a long period of time, until i didn't and they started to pull the rug out from underneath and the next thing you know there's all kinds of issues when there wasn't anything, all of a sudden there's all of this. i don't want to be in the stocks i'll trade the options at least i have a risk/reward there in front of me steve has been trading more options over the years he understands it very well as well the reality is you can have a dollar at risk you're okay losing that. when you are owning these stocks and almost have a limitless fall, at least a fall down towards zero, that can be a real problem. that's why i say, i'd rather be in the options i'll trade the options i'll still trade these chinese names but i'm still very, very apprehensive when i'm talking about the stocks themselves. >> real quick, weiss >> yeah, look, i don't come by this casually. i've been to court with chinese companies. i've hired attorneys based in
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the cayman and in hong kong and in china, and that is the story. what i'm telling you is is the truth. china takes a long-term view they want these companies to list on their exchange one example, kio 360 which went private at $9 billion. relisted short term on shanghai exchange and a market cap of $60 billion and traded $135 billion that first day that's what the chinese government wants the capital staying in china not coming to our exchanges here so it's not cutting off their spice to spite their face. it's building a financial system they want to rival the u.s., period >> okay. let's get to headlines with rahel solomon. >> hello here's your cnbc news update in new york city, all municipal workers will be required to get their vaccine shots or face weekly covid testing also the biden administration is saying that it will keep existing foreign travel rules given the ongoing risks from the delta variant. that means restrictions that
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have barred much of the world's population from visiting the u.s. will not be lifted in the short term and on the news, the drive to get more americans vaccinated and where to wear your mask. managing mandates as guidance changes tonight at 7:00 eastern. and the new study indicates that it is safe to get a second dose of covid vaccine even if you had an allergic reaction following the first shot researchers looked at nearly 200 patients with reactions to the first dose and found only about 1 in 5 had reactions to the second dose. all of which were mild and well treated with antihistamines. you're up to date. scott, back to you >> rahel, appreciate it. the biggest etfs to watch today. a look at some of the stocks clining new highs today inudg nike, target and cisco. be right back. esg into your inv? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions.
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when you're a two-time gold medalist, it comes with the territory. welcome to the etf edge portion of the halftime report confused about thematic investing? cloud computing, robotics, but not sure which ones to own or how much to allocate to them let's talk to the ceo of amplify etfs who launched the amplify thematic etf, vps, which focuses on the consensus of etf
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investors who are buying thematic etfs. also jay jacobs, head of research and strategies at thematic tech leader global x. is there a compelling need for an etf that tracks the most popular thematic stocks? >> hi, bob, yeah mvps is an indexed based etf with 155 stocks that are owned based off what the market believes are the most compelling themes in stocks representing thematic etf ownership the index provider is etf action a robust database and rebalances that data set every month so the security selection changes we think this answers the question on which theme should i own? how do i avoid stocks that aren't pure play this is a core thematic etf for investors. the first of its kind powered by etf ownership. >> and i see tesla nvidia, square and amazon in
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here global x is a leader in thematic tech investing where are you seeing the biggest inflows in tech investing this year in thematic tech investing? >> we're seeing transformation in the transportation industry we've seen about $4 billion going into two different themes. u.s. strct development people trying to play that theme of the biden administration and congress working on passing a $579 billion transportation package. and then secondly in lithium and battery technology 3% of car sales in the u.s. in may and june were electric vehicles that's the highest ever. we see mercedes, bmw, volkswagen doubling down their ev efforts seeing a massive shift in how people will start driving going forward. >> the other tech themes, robotic, cloud computing, fintech. >> they remain strong just not front and center people are focused on playing the biden administration because there's a lot of money coming out of the federal government looking for places to invest mostly that's in infrastructure. >> guys, thanks. there's much more with christian
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and jay coming up on etf edge at 1:00 eastern time including their pick for the next big thematic tech investment theme in the second half of the year back to you, scott up next, tesla gearing up to report earnings after the bill pete tells us what he is seeing in the options market. plus, his latest trades in "unusual activity. we'll do it after this quick break. the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq-100 like you become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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all right. time for "unusual activity." pete, what do you have today >> i'm going to start with viacom it doesn't hit all that often. matter of fact, friday they were buying august 46 calls, september 44 calls today they are coming back into august and they're buying the august 48 calls. 9500 of those trading in viacom. expecting some movement in viacom in the not too distant future from now. definitely looking at a lot of different option hits there, which is very unusual. the next one, we were talking about chinese evs. how about nio. only some buyers of the july 45
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calls. those, obviously, july these expire on friday very, very short term. but a nice size buyer of those at the 44 strike that was interesting coming into earnings tonight, tesla, the most recent thing that i'd seen that really stood out for me was just last thursday we had a huge buyer of 20,000 of the puts, the 600 puts out in july going into this number stock very close to the levels it is right now. so somebody out there betting that maybe we'll see a substantial pullback in tesla after we hear the earnings call. >> kathy wood saying wall street continues to value tesla wrong we'll see it it's interesting july 600 puts. we shall see it always moves pretty big in one direction. we'll find out which way that is pete, thank you. "ask halftime" is next play your questions by video bit differ. where technology helps doctors provide more precise care...
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you can't beat turkey hill memories. ♪ - [announcer] introducing the grubhub guarantee, our promise to deliver your order on time within the delivery window and for the lowest price compared to other apps or you'll get back at least $5 in perks. the investment committee answering your questions in earnings addition of "ask halftime." for farmer jim todd in nashville. what do i do with starbucks before the earnings report tomorrow should i buy more? >> so, by buying more that implies you already own some if you didn't own. i'd say you should buy some, but save your dry powder for after the earnings report. we've got to respect the stock is up 67% in a year. i do think that this has many years of growth ahead of it. it's still coming out of the pandemic it's still a reopen stock. but it's up 67% in a year.
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if you own it, hold onto it. wait until after the earnings to buy it i don't care if the stock goes up, still buy it after earnings. >> it's up 65% in a year we'll see. that's a big call. steve weiss, mesh in austin, texas. your thoughts on skyworks ahead of thursday's earnings >> i think we'll get first indication of how they'll report when we get apple's earnings apple has been between 15% to 30% of their business. the guide are in the next quarter when new phones come out is going to be very good however, this stock has also had a huge move. anything can happen. i thought the last quarter was great butyet the stock sold of and that was a buying opportunity. so i'd say i'm owning this for the long term. the whole 5g cycle which is ten years in the 6g cycle. so i'm sticking with it. already short the smh just to have -- but this one should be
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fine >> let's talk about some of the stocks hitting new highs today we have a few owned by our panelists today. paypal is one of them. reports on wednesday brenda, you own it >> we do this is another stock that's up tremendously over the last year and even for the year to date period it's also been incredibly strong expectations are high. i are high i would not buy it ahead of the quarter certainly. but really looking for what's new. and that would be, you know, potentially the company being able to take price with some of their retailers, looking for more detail about buy now, pay later and the traction they're getting with that offering venmo has continued to be strong so, looking for more from that but i would say the comparisons are tough for this company year-over-year, so that's what gives me a little bit of pause ahead of the quarter but still think fundamentals remain strong >> weissman, i'm looking at it right now, it's down 5%. it did hit a high earlier today, 362 even where from here because i think
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it's only right to ask every time we talk about it. >> i think the stock can go multiples from here. the wong way to look at it is as a biotech company, even though that's what they do. the right way to look at it is as a technology company with a technology that can go everywhere in fact it's phenomenal, shrinking by 60% they're going to put out a flu vaccine to combine with the covid booster. the future is truly unlimited for this company and you know, one hedge fund, very well-known hedge fund that i don't mention because i don't want to violate confidence, but it runs back 50 billion, has a tremendous track record. they think the stock can go five fold from here, and i'm in agreement. >> okay. we will watch shares of moderna. we will step away. we'll come back and we'll do final trades
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and i think there is still a little bit of room for colgate. >> we're seeing shares move up just a bit i have a question for you from sam in new jersey. what are your thoughts on lockheed martin and the defense industry as a whole? >> yeah, i like this industry. i certainly do i know a lot of the panelists have different stocks within this i like lockheed martin for a lot of different reasons today they had some charges that were on there that were part of it that seems to be pulling it down a little bit, but just a little bit every division was growing i like that. and when i look at their full year guidance, they're giving us great guidance and it's still a very inexpensive stock. for all those reasons i want to hold on to it. this is a stock position for me, not an option position for me. >> understood. farmer jim, why do you own raytheon and northrop over lockheed what sets that one apart in your mind >> you know with raytheon and northrop, they're very similar
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to lockheed martin but i like the bigger focus on satellites, space, missiles, reconnaissance but all of those are focused on aerospace as far as defense. i like lockheed martin i just like those other companies better for the space and satellites and surveillance business >> all right farmer trade, give me a final trade. >> that's a lot of s's >> that's true you handled that well. give me a final trade if you don't mind >> thank you alaska airlines. this was a really good report last week on the earnings. the analysts are catching up, you're seeing upgrades and estimate revisions going higher. this one's going higher. >> brenda? >> abbott labs this has a solid diabetes franchise. on top of that i think we have rapid test where the demand is not over yet for covid rapid tests. >> okay. steven weiss >> volkswagen. they report thursday but they launch new ev, id-6. you'll get an indication how much that market is growing when
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you hear tesla tonight seven times earnings, you've got to buy it here >> mr. najarian. >> i'm look at alcoa i see call buying. that space is starting to move to theupside materials have a little bit of a move at least today. i like this name i think this is a name that can go higher. >> good stuff. we'll keep our eyes on that. new highs for all the major averages today "the exchange" begins now. thank you, scott hi everybody on this monday i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead. if you missed out on the record setting rally, one strategist has three names that could be on the brink of a breakout. we're getting a boost from the credit markets plus the countdown is on for one of the most anticipated ipos of the year, robinhood. ahead of its expected debut thursday, the company is becoming single money app. and the china crackdown continues, why gap could rally 44% and investors are goin


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