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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  July 19, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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the creativity of people who are desperate for money. i guess it's just kind of tailor-made for scam artists, you know? because they prey on those type of situations and those type of people, you know -- good people who want to genuinely help people in need. -- captions by vitac -- good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche these are the headlines. resurgence versus reopening. global stocks see red with increasing covid cases, but england pushes ahead with dropping almost all virus restrictions. vivendi dropping the initial deal of the universe music
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division crude prices under pressure as opec plus producers strike a deal putting aside differences with the uae and saudi arabia. >> it is good we have the opportunity to think differently and look at this differently we differ here and there, but we want over 180 people have died while hundreds remain missing in germany and belgium as crews clear the debris of the devastating floods >> translator: it is shocking. the german language barely has words for what we encountered. good morning welcome to another trading week. i'll kick things off with markets. you see already in this early hour of trading, there is almost all red on the map behind me
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not a good day for the stoxx 600. down already for the week, we ended on the back foot. stoxx 600 dipping down .30%. down 1.5% for the week you can see the stoxx 600 is down 3%. you see declines as people reassess the second half of the year whether it is the fizzling out of the inflation narrative or the central bank being behind the curve or concern of the number of cases that we're seeing in terms of the delta variant spread a lot of growth here is creeping into markets let's look at some of the sectors today and we are getting right into the heart of the european earnings season things are about to start kicking off. it obviously started last week in the u.s some stories are coming from micro development. the bigger theme, of course, is
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that is what is happening as far as growth is concerned travel and leisure is down 3% lower a lot of confusion of rules and whether countries want to be added to the green list. we saw that with france over the weekend. now back on amber or amber plus, whatever you want to call it it hasn't been a possiblitive. some of the other cyclicals trading in the red relative out performers today. food and beverage is down .50% health care down .40%. pretty negative. i want to point out which is not shown on the oard. oil and gas in focus today we will talk about that on the show opec plus finally hammered agreement. the reaction in oil and gas has been negative this morning
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and asia is not positive every single one of the indices is negative. nikkei is down 1.25% bank of japan from friday. the tokyo olympics happening this week. we are seeing a number of covid cases spike up that is a focus in japan shanghai is out performing flat. hang seng down 1.8%. it is worth mentioning that over the weekend, the u.s. supplied furthe officials in relation to the hong kong crackdown. the tension with the u.s. and china under the biden administration the reaction is not positive in the chinese stocks u.s. futures not pretty s&p opening up 16 points lower dow is 200 points lower.
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nasdaq is 20 points lower. mixed data on friday better retail sales number, but followed up by university of michigan expectation and ford as well a mixed bag there. the mix on corporal earnings we get netflix results tomorrow. the issue is the changing narrative and how things look in the second half of the year. it is a big day over here in the uk you are looking right now at live pictures from the waterloo station. england ends most of the coronavirus restrictions social distancing rules will be lifted citizens are no longer required to wear masks indoors. this is despite the surge of cases in hospitalizations with the spread of the delta variant. prime minister boris johnson and
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the health secretary will mark the day in isolation this after javit came in contac with other ministers the government was forced to u u-turn on sunday after they were not required to isolate as they took part of the pilot scheme. prompts that ministers work under their own set of rules in the video statement, johnson said he briefly considered not isolating and urged the public to continue sticking to the remaining covid restrictions >> like so many hundreds of thousands of people across the country, i've been pinged and asked to self isolate by the test, trace and isolate system, after being in contact with somebody who has covid in this case, the health secretary javid. we did look briefly at the idea
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of us taking part in the pilot scheme which allows people to test daily it is far more important that everybody sticks to the same rules. that's why i'm going to be self isolating until the 26th of july >> the leader of the uk liberal democrats told cnbc the government has ignored the rising cases and choosing to go ahead with lifting almost all covid restrictions the decision to ease rules would reduce freedoms for the country's most vulnerable. >> we want our freedom back. we all do. we also have to be sensible. particularly worried about people who are vulnerable and the fact that the government is not making mask wearing on transport mandatory meaning the vulnerable won't have any freedom. their freedoms are reduced because they won't feel safe on public transport this is the balance.
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for the freedom of people to go to nightclubs, most everyone wants fun, you are taking away the freedom of other people. that is the balance we have to strike i just fear this big bang, this gamble that boris johnson is playing is not right >> i will bring in the professor of the economic college of loaned great to have you with us on the show it is the big reopening day today. some people are calling it freedom day in england the government thinks we need to move on and live with the virus and continue life as normal as we possibly can. whether or not that judgment is right is up to the health experts. from the economic standpoint, this is a positive for the economy as a whole >> it might be
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i think everything now depends on how the infection plays out across the country you can imagine different scenarios. an optimistic one and i hope this happens is thening high 50,000 a day and level off by the time we move into the fourth quarter of the year, maybe into september or october, the infections really are coming down sharply there is no rise in hospita hospitalizations, the death rate should remain relatively low a surge of confidence and we get back to economic positive. if that plays out, people will say the government was absolutely right there is another scenario, of course, at the other end of the spectrum, which is the numbers infected keep rising from 50,000 th to 60,000 to 70,000 per day and
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hospitalizations are rising and the death rates, which have been low in the uk, thankfully, also begin to move up on the back of that, people remain very nervous. companies don't want to hire people demand drops off in the shops and restaurants. and way back at the end of the year in the very difficult situation and economic recovery goes into reverse. i don't know which one of those is more likely we all hope the first one, but there must be get a less favorable outcome. after the fact, people can say the uk government got it wrong it is unsure what the right strategy is here and they opted for a strategy of removing restrictions >> you articulated both sides of the argument well. we don't have visibility of how
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it plays out what do you make of the uk government approach and other european countries a lot more cautious in terms of not only removing existing reopening mea measures, but adding to the restrictive measures right now >> yes well, there's a certain logic to the uk government easing restrictions at a different rate from most other countries in the rest of europe because the vaccination rates in the uk have remained higher than in nearly every other european country pushing back in the other direction is the fact that the numbers of infections are very high and rising very fast. more so than almost any other european country if you have great faith in the continuation of the rollout of the vaccine and in particular, the vaccines used in the uk
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remain effective against possible new mutations, you could see a certain logic to what the government is doing there is no question about it. this is a major gamble >> professor, i want to ask you an essential banking question. that is when policymakers talk about the crisis being over, what exactly are they looking for? is it a health consideration so we deem the crisis over when the certain population has reached immunity or a monetary policy consideration where they look at specifically inflation target and getting back to 2% or just a case of the economy going back to pre-pandemic trend levels again? which one of the metrics is the policymaker looking at to deem the crisis over? >> the first thing is we are a
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long way away from being able to say the crisis is over even if infection rates drop back and economic activity by the end of the year in the uk has returned to the level we were a couple of years ago even if all that is true, we still wouldn't know for sure that we won't get a new mutation arising some time early next year and taking us back into restrictions and the economy turning around i think it will be a long time before we know whether this is quote over that is partly because the longer term economic impact of what is already happened and what is already in the past in terms of the disruption to the education of millions of people in the uk, which will affect the job prospects many years and possibly decades into the
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future we are yet to even see the impact of that yet then there is the issue of long covid which in a sense is already happened we already had a huge number of people in the uk infected. how many of those people will not fully recover? as yet it is uncertain i think the data which we can say just in terms of the economy, oh, this is now over, is not measured in months. i think it is potentially measured in years. of course, the central bank can't wait until everything is absolutely clear before acting you always have to make mondetar policy decisions in the fog of uncertainty. that fog is not going to lift any time in the next year or so. >> fair enough thank you for clarifying the challenge ahead for some of the central bankers. david myles, former member of the mbc of the bank of london.
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i'll talk about the measures with the mayor of london sadiq khan at 11:00 a.m. london time. corporate news for you big ackman's fund will buy into the music group after the original spac deal was scrapped. we have charlotte joining us now. vivendi is down .68% it is a concern if the spac is tied up or the original investment fund from pershing square can you breakdown what has happened this morning? >> reporter: good morning, joumanna that is what ackman wanted to highlight this morning we had a disagreement with
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vivendi with the spac. it was for 10% of the universal media group. it was the third deal of the kind that spac not getting lifted, but distributing the shareholders after the listing it is now scheduled for september 21st we heard from pershing square this morning that they decided to pull the deal and said the decision over issues raised. the u.s. s.e.c. commission now they are working to identify the new merger and payout indemnity costs. the following news this morning is that instead, it is bill ackman's fund will replace the spac deal for 10% of umg the deal is between 5% and 10% the intent to sell was a
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shortfall to other investors before the distribution of the 60% of the cap of umg to vivendi. the final construct is 60% of umg go to vivendi shareholders tencent sold that stake months ago. the remaining 10% to vivendi this will be completed on the listing on september 21st. the largest music group in the world. it is interesting development here bill ackman has been working on this deal and we mentioned this morning the share price was down 18% since that deal with vivendi to reassess and work on a different deal and find a new merger interesting here from bill ackman's point of view not a huge difference here vivendi shares are down 0.5%
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mostly in the red this morning, joumanna >> charlotte,interesting a close one to watch especially the spac price performance of the pershing square spac. also coming up on "street signs. angela merkel looking to help those hit by deadly floods in germany and other parts of europe we'll be right back.
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show me the olympics. ♪ "bugler's dream" begins playing ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to "street signs. it is olympics week with the tokyo olympics kicking off we get news from the blue house. the official state residence for the south korean president the president will not be visiting japan for the olympics. they have not provided a reason. this is confirmation that the leader of south korea will not go to japan and not meet with suga over the next week.
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we will give you coverage from the olympics this week all eyes on the rising number of covid cases there as the olympics begin. german chancellor angela merkel promised financial aid to regions devastated by the floods what is the government committing to in germany right now, melissa bell? this looks like the floods are g beginning to subside what about the economic damage >> reporter: it is not clear how big the damage is. one thing is clear it is a level of devastation which took place because of the floods in western germany. the region is affected with the area borders luxembourg and belgium. the area, the economic effects, are not quantifiable, i would
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say. the government is saying they are ready with emergency aid for those. take a listen to what angela merkel had to say when with visiting the area yesterday. >> translator: we stand by your side the federal government and the state will act together to set the world right again in this beautiful region step by step. that means we have to act quickly in the short-term. it means we need a long stamina. thankfully germany is a country that can manage this financially. germany is a strong country. we will stand up to the force of nature in the short-term also in the medium and long term through policy that pays more regard to nature and climate in the recent years that will be necessary, too. >> reporter: so while the floods are recedreceding, it is not ye over there is, for example, another
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dam failure which is getting unstable and close to the city and the situation in bavaria is not yet resolved the water levels are rising there. there is more rain to come it is very early to say when the situation will be contained and how quickly the aid will actually go to the people affected i heard from the prime minister candidate and the failure means it will take years to get the damage under control with that, back to you >> very stark warning. thank you for breaking it down for us let's bring in the global head of macro ing i appreciate it. it is early days have you conducted analysis on how much of a hit to gdp with
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the floods and devastation and economically will cause in the coming months? >> i think the horrible thing about the natural disasters is the hit to gdp growth is hardly there. because it will cost the stock of the economy we have the last floods in 2002, the insurance industry estimated that the damage there was something like 4.5 billion euro which is 0.1% of gdp currently, the damage will be much bigger. in terms of gdp, it will not be that much. to the contrary, once we see rebuilding starting, which will be very fast, we could see a positive impact on gdp growth going into the second half of the year this is the perverse economic truth of the disasters. >> what about the political impact
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i read a lot over the weekend that it puts the chancellor candidate from the green party in a better position of course, we are all witnessing the devastation and climate change policies become front and center again we played a little remark from angela merkel from over the weekend. she is emphasizing the importance of climate change and acting quickly to address the challenges what do you think it does for the calculus for the elections >> i think it will be a gacme changer for politics like you said the green party had the enormous rise in the polls in april when they nominated the candidate due to personal issues, the greens dropped two months into the polls down to 20%. this will now bring back topics
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and content to the election. until now it is which candidate is making the least mistakes in the campaign this could be the game changer in which the campaigns focus again on what the parties have to offer in order to take a climate change there could be a chance for the greens to rise again we have to mind the bit of an incident over the weekend. spotted laughing while the federal president giving a speech there it is really hopefully this campaign really gains in terms of substance and not so much as a beauty contest for the leading candidates >> it is interesting what you say about the market hovering in on who is making less political mistakes to your point. he did apologize for that. a question broadly speaking on
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the german economy i don't want to let you go without asking we had positive comments from the german ministry last week. propjecting inflation back to 3% what do you think with the german economy poised for a bounce back? >> i think germany is prepared for the huge and strong rebound. it will start in the second quarter and gain momentum in the second half of the year. i pencilled in germany to grow 4% this year another 4.5% next year which means that germany will be among the first eurozone countries reaching pre-crisis levels while the rest of the euro gets there the first half of next year. >> optimistic. you explained it clearly thank you for joining us
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karsten, the global head of the ing. we will talk more about inflation as cities says the effects will be transitory that is right after this
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines resurgent versus reopening global stocks sees red with increase ing covid cases england pushing ahead with all virus restrictions. bill ackman is restructurin after the buy back. and the increase output for next month putting aside differences with the uae and saudi arabia for opec plus >> it is good to give you the opportunity to think differently and look at this differently we differ here and there, but we
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want over 180 people died and hundreds remain missing in germany and belgium as crews clear the wreckage of last week's devastating floods. >> translator: it is shocking. i would almost say the german language barely has words for the devastation that has been realized welcome back to the show it is not a pretty morning as far as trading is concerned. a look at european markets you see every single one is trading on the back foot deep in red territory. ftse down 3% points. we are not seeing that love for the key stocks in the ftse 100 cac is down and cyclicals and
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reflation secretor is down. a lot of issue with the cases of the delta variant cases means for travel over the summer especially with the change in tone from the uk government and specifically the latest measures adopted with france. ftse down as well. u.s. futures it is not shaping up to be a good day we started with a positive flew of earnings results last week, but the picture for the three indices is negative. s&p is opening 22 points lower dow is 250 lower and nasdaq 25 points lower as well other developments in energy opec plus producers agreed to hit the gas on oil production for next month this after crude prices soared to 2.5 year highs on the badge
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of huge demand ministers agreed to pump an extra 400,000 barrels a day starting in august as part of the bid to get back to pre-pandemic levels next year. this marks a victory for the uae which threatened to derail talks earlier this month it is one of five countries which sees a boost to the production baseline under the deal energy ministers talked about the decision >> i would like to confirm uae is committed to the growth and we also work with it and within the growth to do our best to achieve the market balance and help everyone. the uae will remain committed member in the alliance as you know us and in terms of the
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delivery >> outside of the 1970s, equity markets usually beat inflation that is according to the citi report which augusts price hikes are transitory the european markets have priced in a rise in inflation and cheap equities on the continent could be the huge boost. we have one of the authors of the report joining us. always a pleasure to have you on the show with us a quick question before i ask you about the specific findings of the report, elize the inflation we are seeing is transitory have we reached peak levels according to the economist >> good morning, joumanna. to open up, i like to contrast perhaps the perspective from the macro perspective and the work we have done is really to interrogate our 23 sectors and
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all of the equity analysts and try to contrast that because that gives you the different perspective. obviously, our economists think inflation is transitory and at peak the key question is if we are nearing peak, how long the current levels and how can that impact corporate i think that is relevant because that is the reporting season that is a theme that is likely to be raised at the conference calls and the various reporting in the various moments that the companies will face. it is really trusting to get this now i think when we look at the various vehsectors, investors ae
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clearly concerned about inflation rising for several companies, it is not such a bad thing and we have seen very, very positive outcomes, particularly for the brent names. not just the traditional sectors you mentioned with the traditional cyclicals or the energy sector tagged as being able to pass on the crisis >> if you had to paint with a broad brush, what would you say are the best sectors to pass on some of the cost increases versus the worst sectors >> so, i think the strong positive sectors, overall view, is really any sector that has a very strong pricing power in
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general and also has very strong branding possibility so the sectors we're thinking about, auto, luxury goods and financials and beverages building and transport and tech as well. all of those sectors arelookin to do well and provide good hedges for different reasons. i would like to say why that is different. autos, luxury goods and beverages, within those sectors, you have strong branding ability. that is not to say you won't have ago affected. autos within that is the suppliers with less pricing power than the manufacturers that is not a good place autos in general and particularly the larger manufacturers, that is a better place. luxury goods has strong pricing power. within beverages, for example, the brewers will continue to be affected by the barley prices
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going up the brewers are not particularly a good place, however, within that the spirits which tends to be longer. that is branding i would say with financials, it is different financial has strong relationship to interest rates it is more inflation and what it means for interest rates and we know that the financial sector, particularly banks, craving for the higher rates that are so good for their performance in general. transport. fr freight is massive you have inflation combined with strong structure drive with e-commerce you can think about air freight has gone from, i think, 3.5 per kilo of pricing for air freight. that is against 1.8 in 2019.
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you see that is not just maritime, but air freight is now actually booming the tech companies are very good place for pricing power. >> what does this all mean for the outlook for corporate margins going forward? there is one line in the report that stood out to me you are saying that what's more relevant for corporate margins is what happens with labor costs which account for 60% to 70% of corporate costs and your findings as long as wage pressure and dpr growth, we are unlikely to see the growth on the take away? >> that is the main take away. take a step back remember that investors worry and have been concerned with base material prices and you were mentioning on the show,
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obviously, all of the supplies within the market. not just demand. we tend to see more demand-driven market we can put that to the side a little bit i mentioned the mitigating factors that companies have pricing power and sometimes with selling. that takes it back to the wage situation which is different around the globe, let's face it. we have had different situations if i think of thospitality sector, it is not as bad as you might think in some of the sectors because of the schemes the governments have introduced. that helped alleviate a little bit the pressure they will vary the broad view is that the question is how long will this wage inflation stay?
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there is wage inflation and how long will it stay? we mention in the report this is probably one of the biggest differences with europe and u.s. >> all right elise, thank you so much for joining us today elise duday head of investment at citi. and a boost to the bottom line as the vaccine rollouts allows economies to reopen we will speak to the ceo of assa abloy after the break. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to
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welcome back a 70% jump in the second quarter operating profit yearon year demand picked up and covid restrictions eased the biggest lockmaker saw sales climb 23% from the slump of last year nico delvaux joins me. the ceo of assa abloy.
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how does this compare to 2019 figures? >> good morning. we are happy with the result of the quarter and record of organic growth of 23% and growth for all divisions with the exception of the care division the strong corporate growth gave us good volume leverage boosting our bottom line. if you take the bottom line and exclude acquisitions, we were at 15.9%. that would have been a similar level as we have prior to covid-19 in 2019 >> you may have heard before we started this interview, i was speaking to another guest, an economist, we were talking about inflation pressure there is one problem that pops
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up with corporates that is the supply chain pressure i'm curious to see how supply chain pressures are effecting companies like yours and if you have been able to pass on the extra costs to your consumers. >> that is, of course, true. it's very strong with material cost inflation and inflation for all materials. copper, nickel and zinc and obviously for steel. very strong material if youyou see steel prices up in the u.s., it is up 200% from a year ago that is almost not inflation, but hyper inflation. of course, we compensate with the cost saving measures in the operation and many with rising cases. we are down several in cases
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we continue to case our prices so far, we have been able to compensate for the inflations. in q2, the material versus price is 20 base points and negative on the result. that is something we will continue to review in the second half with the pricing cases. >> interesting it hasn't affected the bottom line much. a question of how closely a company of yours is linked to the housing market these days, not a day goes by that we don't talk about house prices increasing rapidly. whether the u.s. or uk or pockets of europe. how closely is your business to the fortunes of the housing market do you see signs we could be due
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for a dip given how quickly prices have risen? >> 75% of our business is commercial 25% is residential if you look at the composition, 2/3 of our business is aftermarket we are not dependent on new build or residential side. obviously, it has been a positive driver in recent quarters obviously during covid-19 where the residential segment was a faster growing segment there has been the case in the first two quarters of this year. we don't see really any slowdown residential business for us has continued to progress on a high base >> talk more about that geographical distribution.
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i'm curious to hear your thoughts on the relative speed of the reopening that is taking place. today is the reopening day in england. other european countries are following more cautious approach in the u.s., it varies by state. more broadly speaking, the economy is moving to fully reop reopening. in asia, a spike in the number of cases to the extent that the authorities have actually been forced to crackdown and reinforce the restrictions again. what does that mean in terms of where you see the growth opportunities going forward? >> of course, mobility is very important for many of our businesses the mobility comes back and that's what wie see in general vaccines are rolled out at higher speed and inflections go down and mobility goes up. when mobility goes up, business confidence comes back and ultimately our business will
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bounce forward that is what we have seen in many markets around the globe. that is true we are still very much in any material state with new infections come up like the delta variant and so on. we are still in a covid-19 and we watch it carefully and we make sure we continue to focus very much on the cost and decide not to make the investments too early. of course, when the markets open up and the business opportunities are there, then we want to take our positives from the market >> to wrap up the discussion, what you were saying about being cautious when it comes to investments, your capital market state. 5% organic and 5% market growth for the next few years
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is that ambitious enough is there any reason you are so conservative >> we would not call this conservative our ambition is to grow 10% on the business side and 5% on organic. if you look at the last ten years, we achieved 9% year on year we believe it is ambitious to achieve this target. that is our target >> all right thank you very much for spending time with us nico delvaux a 70% jump of profit from a year ago. now it is a big week for u.s. tech companies and earnings sc season gets under way. netflix reports on tuesday with numbers in focus numbers from intel amid the global chip shortage and twitter
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reports numbers on thursday. this is what u.s. futures are shaping to look like in the couple of hours when things open s&p opening 30 points lower. dow 300 lower. the losses are accelerating as things pick up speed in europe nasdaq is 60 points lower. on friday, we did have mixed data come out of the u.s much better retail surprising on the u.s. side. so far, the results have been positive people are concerned about the outlook and whether or not the strength can persist another sector we are watching is the view on the radar. we have confirmation of the opec plus deal. uae and saudi arabia managed to cross the divide over
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differences and the opec plus has agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels today from august. the reaction from oil markets has been negative. taking that risk premium out brent is back down to $71.60 wti is 6$69.76 reaction is negative not just for oil, but some of the oil major names as well like bp shell coming under pressure. european markets not a pretty picture ftse is down 1.9%. cac is down 1.8% we are seeing significant losses in the first day of trading for the week stoxx 600 ended down 1.5% lower. take last week and today's performance. we are down 3% on stoxx 600.
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still close to the all-time highs. before we go, let's take a look at the live pictures from around london today. including oxford street. england and most of the remaining coronavirus restrictions you can see these are live images from london shopping season is just beginning to get going big day in england with most restrictions being eased masks no longer required indoors. before we go a quick programming note speaking with london mayor sadiq khan today that is it for "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
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do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is the top five at 5:00 down 300 dow futures sinking. stocks broke a weekly win streak what is behind the move. oil is down. opec comes together in a last-minute sunday meeting to reach a production deal following the high profile collapse of negotiations breaking news. bill ackman's spac dropping the bid for the label. music like lady gaga and taylor

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