tv Fast Money CNBC July 14, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
tonight on fast, we go right to the core of the market, apple breaking out investors giving the company a big shout out as apple looks to bust out, building more iphones. we'll lay out how to trade it. plus, big oil springing a leak the one top sector cooling off, but if you still love the group, have no fear, we have spotted something in the options market that could point to a big break out in one of those big names. and then pot, not hot. cannabis shares down even as congress talks up legalizing it. tim seymour is here to break down all the action. welcome, i am brine sullivan in for melissa tonight. thanks for joining us anyway
tonights linedup time seymour, guy adami. let's start doing it and get right to it. hit the macro markets and your money. another good day as the dow, s&p and nasdaq all rose, not big but when you are on records and you go up a little bit it's a new record it was a story of continued momentum and maybe a little mini jay powell pop, if you will, because the fed chair testifying on capitol hill mostly of course got questions that lined up by political party, but on the side that you care about powell trying to keep everybody calm on inflation, but in reality is everything as under the surface smooth as it may seem tonight, guy adami? what do you think? >> hello, brian. and i don't think things are nearly as smooth as -- it's like what is that thing when a duck swims it looks so casual but below the surface the wheels -- the legs are going a mile a minute that's what's happening here dan will correctly say and cathie wood was just on talking
about the fact that she's worried about deflation. steve grasso brings it up. maybe that is -- you can make a case for it, what i will tell you is and i will say it for the hundred dred time technology is the biggest deflationary force in history and we are at a point that we have never seen in our history in terms of technology, but you have inflation in all the wrong places and the fed is trying to fight this two-tiered battle and almost by definition they are not going to win. right now the market is baling them out my concern is how long does that last >> well, tim, is the market baling them out or is the market to guy's other point getting in line with the deflation story? companies can't find workers, they're developing robots to flip burgers torques cathie wood's point in "closing bell" once you do that you never go back to the people i mean, it appears the market is rewarding the apples, the amazons, the ones that have disrupted everything and have really made us deflationary in many ways. >> well, we've seen this analog
multiple times, brian, where when we've had these moments when we've been concerned about growth and it is with great irony as we go back to work and as we face these inflationary pressures and overshoot on demand let be clear, this is a demand story and it's a case where i think a lot of the inflationary dynamics are because supply side hasn't really caught up or decided to go back to work, but the services side of it we talked about, i think, multiple times here i do think that we've seen this before when you have a question of sustainability of growth what outper to rms? mega cap tech. the reason, again, the technical factors for the market are we know the numbers, we know that this is, you know, 25 to 30 percent of the s&p, close to 70% really of the nasdaq 100 when you weave in a handful more stocks and so the weight of the defensiveness of this, the great irony is that the market goes higher but the pain in industrials, small caps, what we've even started to see some
emotion in some of the energy trade but places where people felt growth was underpinning very good fundamentals, you know, that's the tradeoff we have had now for probably a month, but certainly since that fed meeting. >> you know, dan, you got name checked earlier in the program follow up on guy's point and also here is what's a little confusing, we talked so long about this rotation out of tech into industrials, into cyclicals and small caps now to tim's point, and what the market is doing it appears -- what do you call that that a rerotation a 360 trade? >> yeah, it's a rotation, though, out of a lot of the growth names in tech that worked very well from the may lows. just take a look at zoom's chart, i think up until about a week and a half ago the stock had rallied nearly 50% from its mid-may lows that thing had a very steep incline if you look at it, it just broke that up trend that had been in place, like i said,
since mid-may. 200 day moving average not great action when you talk about the s&p 500 at all time highs here really today it's all about apple, right? up 2.25% or something like that. that is kind of keeping that in the green there, but there is a lot of bad action under the hood tim just mentioned it. if you look at the equal weight s&p the rsp, you know, you see that that is not a confirmed a new high in the s&p 500, market cap weight, since may 10th that's not great action there and i will just mention put all this together here, this rush into mega cap tech that's at all time highs, these five highs, nearly $8 trillion in market cap, tim just told you the weights in the s&p 500 nearly 25%. you know, i see money coming out of -- i see no shortage of spacs underneath 10 bucks, i see high valuation tech getting hit now over the last week and a half or so i see crypto that can't catch a bid. so i see a lot of pretty speculative assets trade very poorly and then lastly just look at the ten year u.s. treasury
yield. i know a lot of people were quick to say that was it last week at 1.25 or whatever it was, 200 day moving average i think if we are continuing with that up trend and break that go 200 day moving average sometime in the very near future the market, the stock market in particular, is going to have a lot of problems. we're going to have a very sharp correction i suspect in the next few weeks. >> we will talk to paul mccoy about that in just a minute. karen, chime in on what you have just heard do you think we do that rerotation are we rotating back into technology assuming we ever rotated out of it? >> right i don't know that we ever fully rotated out of it or i didn't, anyway, but for the f maga names as dan likes to call them, i do, though, think that, you know, sometimes you have a fed where it's sort of a goldilocks scenario i feel like we are potentially entering -- whatever the anti-goldilocks scenario is so that if powell, you know, was very dovish it seemed today,
that sort of makes me wonder, all right, is the reopening trade not as robust, are they seeing any signs of stalling there? so i was kind of confused by the whole thing, i guess, because, you know, you had this very hot number and then it's fine if you, you know, pull out the used car sales or car sales or whatever i never have quite understood how they decide on what makes inflation, what goes into it it seems to be all the things that don't go up and all the things that do go up, they don't really like to -- you know, know don't get factored in. so it's sort of a lot of mixed messages out there i am never good at rotating in or out of, you know, growth versus value, i just kind of own what i like. the one thing i did do today, i did sell a little bit of facebook this whole f maga trade that has made that position sort of grow and i'm a tiny bit concerned about the apple privacy issues there really potentially hurting their business, although nothing -- they've been, you know, teflon for years so i'm confused really.
>> i don't think there's anything to be ashamed of being confused right now, karen, i think you make a lot of great points certainly used car price the biggest spike ever, adjusting all the numbers and people looking at that guy and going how do i really -- everyone knows everything they buy costs more, the simple question is how long will that last? but going back to what we own, what we should own, the technology stocks, does a 20 basis point rise in the ten-year note mean we should dump google? dump amazon? >> no. >> assuming that occurs. >> no, i don't think so and i think -- i think you would agree with that as well. i think certain stocks are impervious to karen's word before or teflon to interest rate moves and i think it is in names that dan coined a while back i don't think -- i don't think interest rates have anything to do with google's success, facebook's success, even apple
and amazon's success i do think they're high valuation names that will fall under the auspices and nvidia, for example, if rates would go significantly higher, maybe that takes some of the air out of that ball, but in terms of the four or five horse men that have got us to this point, i don't think interest rates have any bearing on them whatsoever. >> all right let's move on and expand the conversation a good discussion on technology with the exception much nvidia has remained pretty darn hot get more on the inflation, on the economy, bond yield and the fed chair powell's testimony today. joining us one of our friends paul mcculley, former pimco chief economist, senior fellow at cornell university. paul, perfect day to have you on because you know -- all the stuff karen just said she was confused by, you're probably not. explain to us how we should view inflation because, do you know what, used car prices are soaring. do i need to worry about that in three months or what's the real inflation
worry? >> i think that chair powell did a great job at explaining the dynamics today in that we've got a unique experience of reopening the economy after a medically-induced coma and the demand side a coming on much faster and much stronger than the supply side. that is what's going on. the demand side is stronger than horse rad dish and the supply side has got to catch up what jay was communicating today is he believes in a dynamic u.s. economy and that the supply side will adjust in part related to the huge profit opportunities associated with the elevated pricing and this will sort itself out therefore, he looks at the inflationary pressures as temporary. >> yeah. >> and he believes that firmly at the same time he's also humble in that there are a lot of things that we don't know about this economy
post-pandemic. so he has a base case scenario and then he is in risk management mode. and the most interesting thing he said today to me is this is going to be transitory one way or the other, either organically because the supply side adjusts in a nice efficient way, or six months out or so they'll have to lean against the demand side of the economy. so it's going to be transitory, it's just a matter whether or not it's going to be the easy way or the hard way. >> well, everything is transitory, it's like steven wright once said, the comedian, everything is within walking distance if you have the time. i mean, this is a dangerous game in a way that powell is playing, paul, because -- and, by the way, your puns need work they don't cut the mustard. you watch the tour de france, i watch it almost every day, by the way, nbc sports, and there's always this guy that goes to a break away and he'd peddling his heart out, inevitably the pack catches up to him but
occasionally they don't and powell is kind of playing that game he is assuming that that guy that breaks out is inflation, but eventually that guy is going to burn out and the pack, if you will, will catch up. that's the transitory nature but what happens if it doesn't does the fed have to react strongly >> i think it will need to react in that scenario, but i would take issue with the notion of strongly we're at incredibly low interest rates, incredibly high valuations for all assets. put differently, we have incredibly easy financial conditions so for the real economy he can lean against financial conditions and wall street will cry pain, but the economy is fundamentally very strong and not as sensitive now in a post-covid world to the financial markets as it was prior because we have fiscal policies supporting the economy now. so i think it's risk management,
i think it's prudent, but at the same time we have to be cautious about the risk here going forward in the financial markets because [ inaudible ] -- >> thank you for joining us. i think what you're saying is the financial markets and powell would like the financial markets to fully discount tapering before we actually get there and i think you noted unlike 2013. it seems to me, however, that despite acting somewhat hawkish a month ago at the fed meeting that he's actually done everything he could to backtrack off of that stance that i thought was getting us to that guidance can you, you know, analyze that? >> you know, tim, i think we lost paul for a second there i'm not going to answer your question, maybe karen or dan could jump in. we're waiting to get paul mcculley back, certainly when
you have it you can reask it or maybe he can hear us and we can't hear him who knows. karen, that's the big bet that we are all placing now when i say we i mean market investors. what's the fed going to do longer term if inflation does not cool off is there a taper tantrum is there a rapid yield in ten year yields based on dan's charts and if so what does that do to technology which as we know loves low rates >> is that to me >> yes >> so just to pick up on your cyclist analogy, maybe the guy to sprints out to the head of the pack is doping and he has the ability to stay there. it's not natural, but maybe that exists just to further the analogy. but i think -- i break down tech into two parts, i think of the google, the value, you know, the f maga complex is much more value than the, you know -- the igb stocks, the zoom, the crowd strike, the salesforce, pa
palantir, snowflake, those kinds of names so i think those are far more sensitive to rates so i'm more comfortable sticking with the f maga. >> maybe the doping is just artificially low rates for a long time. sven henrik and others might argue that tim, we have paul back i don't know if he heard your question so why don't you reask it again. >> i will tee it up again, paul. and so i think your view is that powell wants to guide financial markets, which you're talking about, that's, you know, where the concern is, that on tapering well before he actually has to do it. this would be unlike what happened in 2013 i feel like powell actually went out there and was hawkish on the fed meeting a month ago and has everything he can to reverse off of that stance why is he trying to sound more dovish it seems to me after establishing the beginning of that trend you're looking for? >> i think he's established they're going to be tapering by the end of this year and they will be making the announcement,
you know, probably at jackson hole or sometime around that time and they will start it in the first part of the year i think he wants the exact opposite of what happened in 2013 because he was kind of on the wrong side of that trade and he wants the market to have fully discounted tapering before it starts and i think he start that had process with the last fomc meeting and the market has been incredibly friendly since then so he wants tapering when it happens to be a nonevent if he wanted to lean against this economy it wouldn't be with respect to tapering, it would be raising more questions, if you will, about the transitory inflation thesis and he categorically was not doing that so i separate the whole issue of tapering which i think he's got a great handle on and the market has fully discounted it's going to happen six months or so from now and the real issue is on the inflation side of things
so i think you need to look at it in two different ways >> i think it's well-said, paul, and we will leave it there i think chairman powell wants to be the most boring man in the room and with regards to a fed chair maybe that's a good thing, boring, but important. paul mcculley, always a pleasure, our friend thank you very much. you know, dan, let's trade this listen, i think paul brings up a good point 2013 let's not forget what happened ben bernanke came out and said we're going to start cutting our bond purchases that caused the taper tantrum that our viewers remember very well the stock market didn't react a lot but bond yields did. i think to paul's point, tell us if you agree or disagree, he is trying to beat us over the head so much with this that when it finally occurs, no one is even going to blink can he pull that off >> well, i think what tim is trying to get at was that the fed chair has been clear as mud, if you will, over the last couple of months here. it hasn't actually been that
clear that they are going to taper in q4 and it's not clear to me that that's at all discounted now, you can say if that was the case then maybe rates are where they should be if it's discounted but i go back to, you know, when we started tapering in '14 or '15 or whatever it just took a long time for those numbers to come down dramatically and it came a long time that we got off of zer. i think there will be fits and starts here. i would say this, the fear that, you know, this medically-induced coma as paul just mentioned that we had over the last year, the fact that we think that there's just going to be these inherent inflation that's just going to stick, i don't understand where the last 20 years that there's any evidence that that's going to happen. i go back to what guy started out saying by the deflationary factors that have been in play because of technology seeping into every industry. i suspect in a year or so we will have supply constraints, these bottlenecks as jay powell
calls them fixed and we will get back to worrying about inflation not being high enough. >> we will see listen, lumber did that spike and now is down year to date i mean, maybe the chairman is relying on other things like used car prices doing the same thing. all right. let's move on. we have got a big interview coming your way tomorrow on cnbc do not miss the exclusive sit-down with treasury secretary janet yellen 4:00 p.m. eastern time that's a big one. on deck on "fast money," a deep dive into one of if not the most important stocks in the world apple. but is making more iphones the key to making you more money plus big banks doing some very different things today. wells fargo popping on a higher profit but bank of america a whit of a bust it's up next, erwhe you can still make some dough when the bank is down icy hot. ice works fast. heat makes it last.
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now, that's making a difference. ♪ watch the olympic games on xfinity ♪ ♪ root for team usa and feel the energy ♪ ♪ 7000 plus hours of the olympics on display ♪ ♪ with xfinity you get every hour of every day ♪ ♪ different sports on different screens ♪ ♪ you can watch it anywhere ♪ ♪ and with the voice remote ♪ ♪ you never have to leave your chair ♪ show me team usa. ♪ all of this innovation could lead to some inspiration ♪ ♪ and you might be the next one to represent our nation ♪ ♪ this summer on your tv, tablet, or any screen ♪ ♪ xfinity is here to inspire your biggest dreams ♪ welcome orwell come back let's get back to apple because like mcdonald's says investors have been loving it lately shares at new records and the company look to go boost iphone production let's get right now to josh lipton with more on what apple plans to do.
josh >> brian, so when is that new iphone coming? well, we don't know for sure just yet, though the team at wedbush bets that the iphone 13 launch will come in the third week of september this year. bloomberg reporting that apple is asking its suppliers to ramp up production of those next generation iphones by 20% apparently looking for as many as 90 million units. apple higher in today's trade as were some of its suppliers by the way, for example, pipers harsh kumar covers sky works and says this report is good news for them and says apple can represent more than 65% of sky works' total revenues. qualcomm another important supplier to mention i spoke to an analyst who covers that name, too, he estimates qualcomm gets about $38 for each iphone sold, that's a combination of chip sets and licensing makes sense that tim cook would ask for more units to get built right now after all given this uncertain environment with ongoing chip shortages and
constraints why not lock in iphone supply and if need be scale back if warranted in the month ahead. brian, back to you. >> all right josh lipton with big news on apple. thank you very much. let's go around the horn and trade this guy adami, more iphones, new iphones. i mean, is that alone going to move the stock or is apple just going to keep going up because there are more buyers than sellers? >> well, i always relish the opportunity to speak about apple, but, you know, obviously the trade has been long apple but there are other trades as well and you mentioned the trickle down i look at a name like broadcom, for example, or avgo as it's called now in terms of their investor meeting with bernstein next week they're coming off a ridiculous second quarter in early june, valuation at 16 times next year's number this stock breaks out to a new range. i think despite the fact that it sold off today broadcom is the way i would play this.
>> i saw what you did there, by the way, guy adami you're just hotdogging it now at this point time seymour, let's talk about apple. more iphones what else can we say about it, 33 buys, no holds, two lonely old sells on apple stock at this point. i mean, is there something about apple we can say that we have not said already >> i'm not sure i'm going to reinvent the analysis here i'm just going to point out that this is a stock that's actually underperformed the s&p by 700 basis points this year and i know it seems after 21% move in 28 trading sessions that -- and an rsi by the way a relative strength indicator, this stock is overbought but if you look at two-year chart is looks like it wants to break out off of that blow off top it made last year it's certainly through that. i think it's all what the multiple, it comes down to this, if you listen to jpmorgan who put a bid in the stock today
with an upgrade putting it on their analyst focus list and say it should be a 30 times multiple and they are around 570 a share i think that gets them up to around 175, 180 on the stock services growth is really the story. part of the other story that i think people are talking about lately is also an upgrade in mac shipments being significantly higher and this payment plan dynamic that could make apple phone sales even stronger. >> on the macs there everybody working from home looking to upgrade their devices. good conversation on apple waiting on that new iphone. all right. there is so much left to do on "fast money. here is what's coming up next. >> announcer: talk about withdrawals, big banks heading south as more earnings roll in so how should you pair the financials plus the cannabis craze continues as lawmakers pave the way to legalization. should you puff, puff past on this trade or will the pot stocks head higher we've got that and a lot more. when "fast money" returns.
welcome back to fast we have some breaking news on both aig and blackstone. they are in a tie up and both stocks on the move higher right now. let's get more details with kristina partsinevelos >> thank you so this is a multi-billion dollar deal for blackstone to acquire roughly a 9.9% equity stake in aig's life and retirement business and also gives blackstone is major foot hold into the life insurance industry blackstone will enter into a long term agreement to manage an initial $50 billion in assets. also announced in the deal blac blackstone's nontraded real estate investment trust struck the option to buy $5.1 billion
of u.s. affordable housing assets that aig has held on its book for actually decades but said that it's not core to its operations so this is news that's coming out just within the last hour, aig stock rallied about 6% and shares of blackstone up just above 3% in aftermarket trading. back to you, brian >> kristina, thank you very much right have some headlines there for worldwide exchange guy adami, 5:00 a.m. eastern time. your take on this and both moves in those stocks. >> might be an rbi for you tomorrow, brian, who knows not that i am trying to produce your great show that does air at 5:00 a.m. we've been bullish with blackstone for quite some time, kristina mentions it gives them a foot hold and also potentially maybe $5 billion to manage over the next six years or so and this gets them into one more vertical. they are dominating the financial space, not the bank space as dan pointed out to me a couple weeks ago, but just in terms of financials that fall under the radar screen or don't get on the radar screen, this move now in the after hours puts
it at a new all time high, this he report, i believe, on the 22nd, people will knock them on valuation, they're making a mistake, blackstone is inserting themselves into all the profitable business right now, now a foot hold in the insurance business as well good for them. >> all right there you go, guy, and blowing you kisses from here by the way, guy. all right. one up, one down that is pretty much the ten second head line of the two bank earnings today bank of america a bit of a bust, stock down 2.5%, warning low rates, putting pressure on revenue. on the flip side you have wells fargo, nice intraday move higher, mostly on news to a potential big add to it's $18 million buy back, you have morgan stanley out tomorrow. karen, you're long wells, you're long bank of america, you're long morgan stanley, they're similar but very different your take on what you heard today and what you want to hear tomorrow. >> yeah, i'm long stanley and jpmorgan
kudos to guy he's been on the blackstone thing for, i don't know, 60, 70 maybe more. that's the great way to play it. to me the wells fargo thing the bar was lower for them in some ways and so the buy back was very good. i think bank of america was a little disappointing i think with what they're all facing is all the ceos seem to be very optimistic about the economy, about the reopening of the economy and optimistic about loan growth, however, it hasn't happened yet and while they've been waiting net interest margins have actually gotten even a little tighter and they have had a lot of deposits so they have -- they might have more net interest income because their balance sheets are bigger, but the net interest margins are actually somewhat under pressure and that's what bank investors focus on i focus on that as well, but, i mean, it was sort of an eh quarter, it wasn't great for bank of america. similar refrain from a lot of them about, you know, trading
revenues weren't as robust, but investment banking revenues were fantastic. citi the one thing that is disappointing today was their talk about investing more so expenses going up. i want to give them the benefit of the doubt if they're finding good things to spend money on, they should. >> yeah. >> mike mayo on the call was trying to convince them to spend money on buy backs because that is the single best thing they can do they hear you. they are buying back, but they can and they will, which we all know so, i don't know, i'm sort of a mixed bag of blah, we need some loan growth. >> look what wells fargo, if the other ceos look at wells fargo popping 4% intraday on meh numbers to your point but the buy back, oh, that's nice, stock goes up, maybe more will do it dan, on the banking side you showed your ten-year chart, maybe you want to bring that back up with the trend line that you drew is the bank stock trade kind of as simple as just watching that ten-year chart
>> well, i don't think it's that simple i think the one thing that karen also didn't mention is there's going to be some very difficult comparisons and we also have a lot of uncertainty about the reopening, we also know that while the consumer and their balance sheet are in very good shape right now we're going to see a lot of expanded unemployment and stuff roll off in the not so distant future karen said they're optimistic these ceos about loan growth but it hasn't happened yet citi group that stock trades for blee, bank of america, too city group is down 15% from those highs, only up 10% on the year investors were unexcited about citi group and bank of america what they had to say about their capital return plans so to me it doesn't seem like a great spot to step in on these groups until we get a little more clarity and also until we see what is this market made of? you started the show talk being all these different rotations and bank investors loved when rates were going higher but now with rates down here and they're
likely to stay down here for the rest of the summer i'm just not sure that's to answer your question what the opportunity is here in the near term. >> well, now you have to do some work because it was just on, rates are going to go up by the bank stocks, now it's not the case, you have to big in because they are different good discussion. on deck peter tosh said to legalize and now congress getting on board maybe so why are so many pot stocks down today we will talk about it and make sure to stretch for this call, we are running into a fitness name and how to trade it there's a lot more left to do on fastnde' bk ghafr thisreacrit te that building you're trying to sell, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. if i could, i'd ten-x everything.
all right. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. certainly a rough day for many cannabis investors, a bit of a burn out, even though senate democrats unveiled a new plan for federal legalization of pot. the question is you can propose it, but do you have the votes? ylan mui joining us with more on that. >> that's right, brian top senate democrats are rolling out a federal proposal to make marijuana legal at the federal
level but then tax it. senate majority leader chuck schumer is spear heading this effort along with ron wyden and cory booker. this bill would remove cannabis from the controlled substances act, clearing the way for the industry to get full access to the nation's banking and financial system it also establishes 21 as the legal age to buy marijuana already canopy grow ceo is getting behind this effort in a statement he said that his company is thrilled to support this important legislation we're ready to work with congressional leadership to establish a thriving and safe well-regulated adult use cannabis market in the u.s., but this proposal could bring additional costs for company because democrats want to impose an excise tax on the industry. it would be 10% in year one, then climb to 25% by year five and after that the tax would be calculated based on weight and on concentration democrats say this new revenue is critical to reinvesting in disadvantaged communities.
>> i will lay myself down to do everything i can to stop an easy banking bill that's going to allow all these corporations to make a lot more money off of this as opposed to focusing on the restorative justice aspect >> schumer wants to get comments on his proposal by september 1st and, brian, his goal is to pass it next year by 4/20 back over to you. >> 4/20, maybe not a random act on the calendar. thank you very much. let's trade this a lot is going to come down to this federal realization, a lot of it comes down to banking laws in states and a lot of it comes down to senate votes obviously a tougher day today but one day does not a trend make your take on all of it >> let's talk price action in a second, first on this bill the fact that this bill is put forth and it's very comprehensive, it's too comprehensive and it's not going to get passed in this form i think that that's part of maybe some disappointment although i don't think there was
any expectation that chuck schumer was going to do anything different and it is a complex issue and i think this news has been expected. but the fact that full legalization descheduling and the beginning to regulate the industry and on a federal level allow the companies to have access to capital markets and listings and remove punitive taxation for these companies is a great, great moment and it's an exciting time to be investing in the sector. i'm vesting for these headlines i don't think is what investors should be focused on if you think about the shorter term off of this bill, though, is this is too broad what will have to happen is it will be narrowed down to the points they can get on the board in terms of victories, i think they're actually going to have some expanded banking and access for capital markets and i do think that there will be focus on the social issues and it's very clear, senator schumer wants that and i think it's very important, i think the war on drugs in america has been misaligned and possibly the focus has been in the wrong
places in some cases or on the wrong demographics groups. look, for investors cannabis has still been a great trade this year some of the price action i think as a lot of these names had rallied 20% off of that into today's news, 20%, 30%, but, again, the sector still having a very, very strong year and the long term, you know this, bill tells you just how exciting the opportunity is. >> yeah, up 81% this year and senator booker saying let's take some of the profit out of the banks put it back in the communities that got hit hardest on the war on drugs which we are talking about legalizing while hundreds of thousands or millions still sit in jail for laws that may not even be on the books anymore. all right. coming up, switching gears, get your yoga pants on make sure you've got some water. we're going to stretch into a fitness called lululemon but is that the best stock in the space? plus oil losing some energy today. we're going to fuel up on that trade. what happened to crude what happened to stocks? and where it goes longer term.
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all right. check out this headline, which seems like it's not possible but it's true, general motors issuing a warning about an hour ago for some of its bolt electric cars saying, guy adami, that owners should not leave their electric vehicle charging unattended overnight, which is pretty much when you charge them, or park the car inside so gm effectively saying if you own a bolt, if you are one of the 15 people that bought one, you should stand outside all night and safeguard your car while you charge i mean, come on. >> or maybe go to the ben franklin route and tie a kite to it with a little key at the end. that seemingly worked a couple hundred years ago. it's not a reason to sell the stock. we can wax poetic about how ridiculous that is but tim has walked about this as has karen this comes down to a valuation
play gm reports, i believe, on august 4th. just put a ten multiple on the $7 they're going to earn and you are talk being a trade that should be trading 70 bucks which by the way in early june looked like it was making a beeline towards, it's obviously pulled back from 64 to current levels i think you buy gm on any weakness this head line provides >> and, by the way, we know bolt, guy, is not material to gm, about 20 people bought cash, gasoline is also flammable but it's the confidence to the development of these evs but do you think the bolt is old enough and gone enough that no one is going to care? >>. >> if that's back at me i think the answer is the latter not the former i mean, they've made tremendous strides, they being general motors into this ev space that they're finally being credit for. i think it will manifest itself with the stock taking the next leg higher tim and karen talked about t i've been talking about it for the last few months as well. i think gm and ford by the way
are both mispriced given current market conditions. >> likes his bolt. if gm can get over the pontiac as tech, do you remember that? if they can get through that they can get through anything. all right. from cars to clothes as goldman sachs sends lots of good vibes lululemon's way calling it a top pick, karen, goldman also throwing love on yeti and contour grands which i wasn't aware but is the parent company of wrangler and lee jeans. what do you make about this lulu call >> so the lulu call, they are a broad retail call which they like lulu i think maybe the best or one of the best is about brand, channel and margin. lulu obviously has a spectacular brand, during the pandemic they upped their game, they already have a decent e-commerce game but they upped that and their margins are great. you know, they have premium priced product, they are able to
keep that premium price. the stuff is really expensive but it is clearly better it's freight and then goldman sees additional growth in men's, international and footwear i just kind of -- i don't know how they got to the valuation of 447. everything they say about lulu is true. i just don't -- you know, maybe i'm just bitter because i sold it lower than here, like 330 or so, but at some point it sort of gets too expensive no matter how good it is and so it's sort of in that category for me, but i can't argue with any of the substance of that report >> yeah, and the reality for apparel is that millions of americans have reported a weight gain, some of it unfortunately 30, 40 pounds, a lot of new wardrobes are going to have to be purchased. all right. coming up oil stock they took a hit today as opec looks to hold strong more concern about barrels in the market sending oil and oil stocks down, but don't worry, we spotted something in the options
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reports came out that ee peck may, and i want to emphasize may, i have not confirmed this, that opec may have reached a deal with the uae to boost production after a nearly two week long stalemate. as oil fell so did the oil shocks, chevron, exxon getting hit alongside schlumberger and more guy, you've been big on phillips 66 in the past oil stocks clearly got a little ahead of their skis, right overbought, the rsi, mac d, whatever frame, probably a little outside of that top what do you make of a psx here >> i still like t i mean, i thought it would actually go rocketing through 100 i think it got up to 94 and pulled back why they haven't work is because crude and dan nathan pointed this out to me traded right up to a 13-year down trend line which is pretty significant. it basically as carter would say touched it to the penny. i happen to think we might get a bit more of a pull back here but
we will go ratcheting through the upside that's what makes markets. i would buy the levered name specifically psx on this pull back. >> dan, what do you think? >> i'm not a buyer here. if i think about all these other industrial commodities we've seen considerable pull backs from these kind of spring highs here, i suspect sooner or later crude will do that, too, that opec plus announcement probably helps pave the way and pretty soon we will be past the peak driving season and we know that markets start to anticipate that sort of stuff. to me i'm not buying a break out of a 13-year down trend and if you look at a three-year chart or four-year chart we literally touched to the penny the 2018 highs. so the teaks on crude don't look great and the stocks have already headed lower all right. good stuff dan, thank you very much well, there are bulls then there are bulls and then there's this guy. one trader in the options market using today's pull back to make a million dollar bet on one big
energy stock tony zhang bringing in the "options action. this is a bold bet, tony. >> that's exactly right. this bet was on marathon petroleum mpc. mpc is not just having a bad day it's having a bad month down 15% since the highs on june 10th but today options traded actively, 57,000 contracts were traded which is more than three times the average daily volume that we see and one particular bullish trade did stand out from the see of red we're starting to see across the energy stocks one particular trader bought 13,500 contracts of the october $65 calls for exactly $1 which is about 1.8% of the stock's value. this particular trader is betting that marathon oil -- marathon petroleum will be above $66 by the october expiration which is above the 52-week high
laying ouz $1.3 million to bet that this stock will be more than 19% higher by the october expiration date. >> and i want to make sure people know that is mpc not pro, a big bet there. tony, thanks for more "options action" tune into the full show that is of course, every friday we have to tell you again. 5:30 p.m. eastern which is like 2:45 in boise idaho. up next, w y a fal adeshyourein you are final trades are final trades re final trades. final tr. ♪♪ ♪♪
you know the time, time for your final trades. let's kick it off with tim seymour. >> i'm buying cabinet stocks, i'm long the sector via my cannabis etf this weakness is to be bought based upon capital coming into the sector as the guards come down. >> karen >> yeah, maybe it's in your honor, brian, the oih seems oversold, i think there is a bounce in the near future, buy it right here with a tight stab
at 199. >> tom lee would agree dan? >> yeah, i don't like karen's banks but i do like a neo bank, so he phi, i liked it higher, i added to it. >> and guy >> met life, brian >> all right thank you all. "mad money" starts right now my mission is simple, to i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. people so often miss the