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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  July 13, 2021 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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>> i'm going with earnings >> earnings, i like that call. >> no one can do anything until it comes out tomorrow morning. tim mentioned the underperforming of semiconductors its se he.wan mier ithe biggest in the stocks. i play that with the biggest edge "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> my job is to educate and teach. call me. tweet me okay we know inflation is raging right now. we are hearing from all of the
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companies. natural fruit or natural gas, it is all soared in price this morning we got a price index number that documents what i call inflation with 5.4% increase, despite the headline the average down 107 points. most of the time nasdaq was in the black. prices fall on everything consumers buy have gone up packaging, freight, so many other ones so, okay what do we do? what do you do when you see the biggest inflation spurt in 13 years? do you run for the hills do you panic do you dive? do you get under the desk
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because they are shooting you? no simple you buy big tech rising raw costs and the possibility of interest rate hikes from the fed i don't think powell will change the stance but a lot of money managers disagree. they are a lot more important than i am. they want to be in -- >> house of pleasure >> there are huge patterns that keep repeating themselves in the market if you get a sense of them, it is much easier to pick winners it is the world view it is the stock whisperer. this spring we had a furious rally in the industrials the market pivoted that was a dumb way to look at it that was just wall street g
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gibberish. take a look. fcs, the largest copper mine on earth. it rallied to 46 hardly valued but the people on tv kept saying it is value value here it is a boom and bust stock hostage to the broader economy they don't make it and the industrials all got obliterated. since then money has flowed back into the highest growth stocks why? they would have to stamp out inflation and hyper growth tech stocks are actually what works
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best during a slow down. it is all about anticipation, not a concurrent reaction. this has a bad feeling to me we got the same scenario this morning without a slightly higher cpi number. people remember the pattern from may 12th giving up the gains, you know, sky high inflation was pretty baked in the last hour was sloppy i think the teches can resume their climb in the near future i want to look at some of the winners today. the parent of google we don't talk about this gem of a stock nearly enough. some of it is because the principles are painfully shy they don't care about gemming up good publicitity oil and gas prices have
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skyrocketed. but does alphabet have a problem? check out the bottom carbon neutral since 2007. does alphabet have a problem with packaging no they have an asset-light, brain-heavy business model so many companies are short truck drivers. do they have to deal with the port slow downs? maybe they have important materials waiting on ships from china? alphabet barely ships anything are they bothered by the paint they don't paint anything. it is what i call a banantza of non-inflation.
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then there is microsoft. it was more of a celebration of nothing. we know rising costs for edible fats and oils. i have not seen that type of pressure at microsoft, maybe in the cafeteria. a shortage of truck drivers. i doubt microsoft has any drivers. apple, fabulous brand preps, maybe the best in the world. best customer service. goldman sachs spoke about the credit card. it was reported they have a buy now, pay later plan. and it is in the works i think apple has a lot of upside with minimal down side. but they make a lot of hardware meaning raw costs are an issue but customers love the products
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so much the wireless carriers have to subsidize the cost notice t-mobile is up today and at&t never does anything i wonder why that is not much in the way of supply issues at apple. they have been loyal to large customers. pepisico, a truly monster quarter. i said got to be a mistake it had plenty of inflation throughout the supply chain. how could they have a good quarter? simple the other thing besides tech that works are beloved brands allowing them to raise prices ever so slightly and pass the cost on to consumers
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unlike the moves at alphabet, microsoft and apple. but many companies cannot afford to pass higher costs on to the consumer because people will rebel. that is going on all over the country. not everyone can handle a rise in interest rates which is what many money managers are betting on too here is the bottom line. if you want one industry immune to inflation and a fed induced slow down, it is big cap tech. we heard from a dozen companies of the preearnings season, and nearly all talkedabout spendin a lot of time and money going digital. if you are worried about the red hot inflation number, buy the digitizers i am go to ryan in north carolina >> jim, how are you doing? >> i am really good. how about you.
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>> i am doing great. i bought oracle last month when you tweeted about it and since then i am up 13% >> you have to hold on to that, baby i said you have to come on she is publicity shy a c.e.o. she is so darn smart what a job she has done. i say you stay long with that one. nick in massachusetts, nick. >> jim, this company recently reinstated the dividend and with people hitting the roads now is the time to buy cracker barrel >> the answer is yes i always had that vanilla cheesecake pie no it was an apple pie with a layer of cheddar cheese and giant heap
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of vanilla ice cream that is how you get to 210 pounds worry about inflation, buy the digitizers i lost it. spacs have been attacked in the market but what separates the winners from the losers? i am taking a closer look. and in the oil patch, i am drilling into the energy sector and 39 million households are set to receive a child tax credit this week but it is anything but child's play. which stocks could see a boost from the unsuspected stimulus, and you are going to like them stay with cramer >> don't miss a second of mad money, follow on twitter have a question, tweet, send jim an e-mail. or give us a call at
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>> we got called about two different spacs. i really didn't know enough about their deals to give opinions we have to be selective about spac stocks. so many of them are garbage. you know what, if you are willing to do the research there might be something of value. the second stock created by gold
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m -- goldman sachs. years ago, long before the spac attack, goldman raised the acquisition. formally the ceo of honey well it was created in 2018 and they took their time finding a deal but after a year and a half of searching in december of 2019 they americaned with an interesting industrial company that makes power, thermal and information technology infrastructure solutions the vertiv got hammered by covid, they put up great numbers and the stocks spent the last 15
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months from 13 to 27 and change. it wasn't a bogus get rich quick scheme just like the origin, they took their time searching for a deal and less than a month ago, they found one. they announced a merger with mirion technologies that makes equipment for radiation detection, measuring, monitoring and analysis they are buying mirion from a private equity firm. larry kingsly. really smart guy the number one player in the
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vast amount of categories he participates another 40% coming from the nuclear industry the rest from various markets. it is a real company, expanding profit margins unlike the recent deals we have seen but what they did when they bought vertiv. given how that one worked out, i am pretty darn optimistic about this one goldman found a sleeping business to buy. if if you like mirion, there is no rush. the stock has been stuck at $10. and it has been there for a
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while now. it is not going anywhere you have my blessing to buy but it might be dead money until the deal closes. now, i have a real problem here. sebastian in florida asked me about churchill capital corp five ccv. they have not announced any deals yet, but there are rumors. let me give you the spac record. the original company merged with clarivale. since then the stock as doubled. unfortunately since the spac
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boom got rolling, their deals have been a lot less successful. multiplan, that has been a disaster with the stock trading below $7 churchill capital americaned with skillsoft in a deal closing a month ago. it is not off to a great start with the stock at nine and change lucid motors deal. here is a stock skyrocketed to about $60 and we saw the terms of the transaction and the stock punched to the mid-20 skpz broke so many hearts in terms of the namesake it feels like winston churchill and
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more like the younger churchill. pretty good mel gibson movie this could be worth 2 million. a rumor is not enough. you don't go near something that is just a pile of money when the sponsor has got a mixed track
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record they sell so many spacs, i can't keep track of them all for the lightning round. but you would not ask if you did not care and if you care we have to care too. stick with cramer. when you buy this tea at walmart, walmart can buy more tea from milo's. ♪♪ milo's can create new jobs, jobs for people like james, and lacey, and me. me, i love my work family. family here and home, is my life.
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today we have got another seemingly red hot cpi number, up 5.4% in june and more than half of that comes from weaker comparisons vs. last year or the rising price of used cars. remember, the used car figure is all about the semiconductor shortage not long ago everybody was worried about commodity inflation and for the most part that story collapsed there is no need to raise interest rates any time soon
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despite today's smoking cpi number we talked about at the top of the show and we are going off the charts with the help of carley garner, the author of higher probability commodity trading if you want to understand how it is done and our resident commodities expert on mad money we had stunning commodity rallies this year and one by one have seen them going bust. first, lumber. that was up huge copper in early may, peaked. soybean, wheat, historic rally and finally gold and silver after last month garner points out crude and oil and natural gas are the lone hold outs but she thinks oil is the last man standing and more
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of a dead man walking. she is concerned no reason oil should be immune to the same forces dragging everything else down i told you the high prices are their own cure when commodities get expensive, companies boost production and that pushes price back down. at the moment we have a situation oil producers are being disciplined about production while the industry experienced a post pandemic demand spike instead the major oil producers from opec have created an artificial shortage and holding back on drilling and holding back on completing wells the higher it goes, the more likely it is they will open up the specket and garner believes that is beginning to happen. u.s. oil producers laid off many
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field hands in january joe biden was sworn in they knew a democratic president would be less friendly to the oil. i noticed the rig count is starting to go up. now let's go to the charts it looks complicated we have front month futures, december 21, 22 and 23 futures notice the futures contract with the most distant expiration dates have the lowest prices do you see that? december 2023 futures are in the high 50s imagine it like this when the present price of an asset is higher than the price far in the future.
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we had it for a long time and it hasn't worked. she is as now it is going to garner has another way to look at it. near term futures plummeted last spring and surged last year. but the more assistant future contracts tend toing steadier and more emotional these big users lock the prices in on top of the backwardation, check out the seasonality in west texas crude historically oil peaks in july, right where we are right now it was up today. you would bet that would be back past the peak of summer driving season garner thinks it could pull back to earth right now oil prices had a hard time holding summer gains beyond the middle of july
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what is noticed, the commitment of trader report, the data showing how small speculators, large speculators and commercial hedgers are positioned in the futures market we care about the large speculators. those are the ones we want to key in on. institutional money managers the big money is aggressively bullish on oil we don't like it the most positive it has been since 2018 garner points out the market runs out of buying power when you get a net long position in the 500,000s large speculators have gone above 500,000 net long contracts four times here is one.
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here is two. here is another one. yes. we are talking a $16 decline in 2017 $14 in 2019. $30 decline last year. 2018 oil prices held up until a 700,000 long position and oil collapsed at $35 a barrel. now we are going to zoom out to the monthly chart. while covid shutdowns created a market of volatility before. we have seen this pattern. it took oil two and a half years to recover to the middle 70s the price swiftly collapsed back to the high 30s. suffice it to say it does not
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last as garner sees it the action over the last year and a half is similar. crude dropped to the low 20s and went negative in the one-day cash market but the breakdown only took four months unlike the eight in 2015. within 15 months we rebound to the middle 70s despite the fast pace of the rally, garner thinks the outcome could be similar to what we saw in 2018. she said there is significant resistance at the $80 level and the relative strength index is approaching over those levels. the relative strength index hasn't been able to break off since before the financial crisis and we are right on the
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cusp of the last 13 years. if the ceiling at $80 holds, garner expects a minimal pull back to 60 if oil falls below 60, she thinks it could be moved towards 40 if she is wrong, and technicians always reserve this. remember what i said, you are going to start here. that's that. okay here is the bottom line. i think it is really important what she is making is a huge call at the top here the chart as interpreted by garner predicts oil is about to run out of steam the higher the price goes, the harder it is for them to resist. in texas that is why oil rallies tend to be self-defeating and garner believes the self defeat begins right now shawn in new york.
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shawn. >> hey, jim. i have a quick question on tesla. >> sure. >> which companies are holding bitcoin in their corporate treasury and with the bitcoin price being down >> i wish youhe was not doing al of that stuff. i am with tesla because i think they make a great car. i do think that elon is a genius i have been with him at a very low level and i am sticking with it tonight's charts think oil could soon run out of steam. i mean like now. remember, oil rallies tend to be self-defeating much more mad money. 39 million households will begin receiving monthly bank deposits to year end. where will parents be spending their tax credits?
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>> i don't get it. you know everybody in the business acts like the stimulus is over and done with. the checks are spent expanded unemployment benefits run out at the end of the summer if they haven't been cut off by the governor already that is all she wrote, correct
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wrong! arguably the most important part of the stimulus package kicks in this week. the massively expanded tax credit which will give some families some big checks from now until the end of the year and it has huge implications for the stock market and back to school season. the child tax credit was rolled back to the 90s. eligible parents would get $2,000 per kid per year and now it is $3,000 for each kid six and up and $3600 for kids under six. parents get half of that in cash in the second half of the year that is now. it cuts off couples making more than $170,000 a year they are going out to a huge number of people 39 million families with about
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65 million kids. 88% of the kids in america those checks every month through the end of the year, possibly the biggest social program we have seen in decades like something out of lyndon johnson's great society. many want to make it permanent or extend it to 2025 what matters is that families with children are about to have more spending money courtesy of the federal government and coming right in time for back to school season. where does that money go so we can make money tremendous demand. most families have the necessities covered.
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we will start to see discretionary spending four companies that will benefit. remember, we were down today that is the opportunity. i really like this we will start with one that is so obvious we know really well. levi strauss any other year levi's would be a back to school play. twice a year they put out a survey and denim is having a huge resurgence among young people it shots the lights out. imagine a forecast for the second half. 28 to 29% sales growth
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chip seemed naturally bullish about the long-term denim cycle than i ever heard him when i interviewed him last week on squawk on the street chip was unbridled in his enthusiasm and the company has been a beneficiary of waste inflation. if you spent the last year and a half inside wearing sweat pants you might have sized up. more business for levis. waste lines changed on 35% of us during the pandemic. isn't that extraordinary the stock barely budged. $28 at 30. i think you should buy it here and now before the checks hit bank accounts. there is no new info i like that. child tax credit winner number two, american eagle out fitters.
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we started to recommend this last october and since soared more than 140% i think the stock has more room to run and it is getting ready for the next move. is that is why we bought it for the charitable trust american eagle has a ton of denim exposure and own aerie womens apparel and underwear and a popular new subbrand for active wear. looks like they can hit that number even though american eagle had a monster move, the stock remains cheap. 16 times next years earnings estimate it is a steal. dick's sporting goods.
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kids are not just going back to school in person, they are going back to sports they told a terrific story since then the stock is up a cool 46% dick's reported the best quarter of any retailer. $3.79 per share. same store sales up 115% management nearly doubled the full year earnings forecast. i am calling this a buy, buy and a buy. finally, if you want to bet on the child tax credit without picking a retailer and you want income the gold standard. how about simon property group the real estate investment trust that owns some of the best
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shopping malls on earth. simon is in better shape now before the pandemic. simon has been joining up with other mall owners to buy up tenants. they bought j.c. penny now the company can do whatever they want. they teamed up with authentic brands really smart lucky brand, do you remember that and eddie bauer lucky brand jeans, i think finally timed perfectly. simon picked up a bunch of high quality malls. i think people will take their tax credit and spend it at the
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mall doesn't hurt they boosted the dividend and this is why i am emphasizing it juicy 4.4% yield i like that one for all people seeking income parents all over america will get a series of child tax checks and i have to believe a decent chunk of the money flows to the favorite retail plays like levi's, american eagle out fitters. dick's sporting goods and a real estate ininvestment trust. these are too good to ignore with this money coming to all those americans. sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances designed to work better together.
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it is time it is time for the lightning round. hey man, are you ready tony in florida. tony >> hey, jimmy. thanks for having me i am a long time fan and i have been with you from day one a pair of brazilian puppies and
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want to know if we should keep amd and blackstone >> i like blackstone very much i keep buying. chad in wisconsin. chad >> hey, jim. big boy. >> what's going on >> first time caller, long time listener >> first time, long time go ahead >> so, question is very unique situation right now with all of the microand macro drivers for steel at this time, what is the two to eight month thoughts. >> two major steel producers in the country. now both of these stocks were under pressure people feel like we didn't get the infrastructure package
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it is four times earnings. cleveland is not going to have that happen. i want to buy the stock and put it away. matt in connecticut. >> boo-ya jim. >> my pleasure >> i was looking for a good dividend yielding stock. i stumbled upon a company golden ocean. gogl >> right >> it is a norwegian shipping company. it is up too much. the 2.5% yield ain't going to help if there is a slow down of world trade. mark in massachusetts. mark >> how is it going jim >> not bad >> i had a stock for you >> okay. >> i am wondering crsp
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>> buy buy. >> bit of both a speculative stock up 100 plus points i think you can buy a half position because i do think that it is always been wanting to be a takeover stock ross in texas. ross >> jim, how are you doing? >> doing well, ross. how about you? >> doing all right long time fan of the show. today i am calling about lamb research >> the brain child of rick hill. i have to tell you i think tim arc archer is doing a great job. i am going to say buy. i wish they would split it but they are not going to. idris in maryland. >> big maryland boo-ya to you from me and my son miguel. >> i thought maryland was going to be the best state i didn't think it would be virginia
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>> waste energy company, cva i want to know if i should buy in on it >> should be a good yielder. i think it is okay i am not going to give it the high sign. i think there are other plays that are better. i would even buy chevron more than i would buy covanta hey, can we have one more please frank in michigan. >> jimmy chill, a fully vaccinated boo-ya. >> i like that how do we make money together? >> i know you are a huge fan but b.j.'s >> i used to go to b.j.'s but i am such a costco guy and that is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade
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coming up, the china issue is complicated but cramer cuts through the noise and asks washington the one question investors need answered when it comes to china, what will it be? stick with cramer. stick with mad money ok, at at&t everyone gets our best deals on all smartphones. let me break it down. you got your new customers — they get our best deals. you got your existing customers — they also get our best deals.
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when i was getting dressed, listening to the crackdown stories out of the people's republic of china. we need a consistent policy for dealing with the chinese government right now i am not sure if we are trying to pressure them into respecting human rights or pushing the governments to let our businesses compete fairly rather than forcing them into joint ventures, warning our companies about hong kong like they need the warning. what are we doing? asking the chinese communist party if they expect us to talk and they shoot back they expect to us die and we don't know anything about operation grand slam beyond tonight's all-star game maybe there is something going on behind the scenes but it looks like the government is doing nothing to respond to the crackdown in hong kong
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i can't decide whether to stand up to china or play nice unfortunately we can't do anything about hong kong it has been part of china for 20 years. now they want taiwan too and president xi called for complete reunionification and it seems like our government has no talk, no nothing this frankly is insane i know president trump was ham-handed in his policy towards china but he told xi that taiwan is off limits. don't even think about it. i don't hear the talknow to be fair, the moment biden was sworn in he sent a carrier group to the south china sea but the white house isn't articulating a clear policy japan has been more forceful about using the military and the constitution does not allow them
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to deploy troops overseas. china does have the ability to put the political squeeze on taiwan if they think biden won't respond in kind. the chinese are bankrolling opposition parties in taiwan because the government is too pro independence for their taste. what can the biden administration do right now, today? i want them to come out strongly, biden and xi explaining the flyers stop, attempts to choke taiwan's economy won't be tolerated any longer it is america defending a trusted ally is that a real policy? it is a darn start it is time for the white house to take the china threat seriously. we need to stand up for taiwan block bogus chinese ipos and threaten to cut off china's
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ability to export to the american market if the communist party refuses to behave otherwise goldfinger wins and it is much bigger than fort knox. i am jim cramer. see you tomorrow the news with shepard smith starts now the crucial fight for voting rights today the president enters the ring this is the news on cnbc the fight for voting rights. president biden delivers a major speech >> fthere's an unfolding assault taking place in america today with an attempt to suppress and subvert the right to vote. >> texas democrats jet to washington to block republican voting restrictions. >> we are laiving right now on borrowed time in texas >> now the pressure on congress
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