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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 12, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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live in the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square. this is "fast money" tonight's trader lineup. you have dan nathan, karen finerman and bryan kelly stocks soaring to record highs as you're seeing there with the dow closing just a hair below the 35,000 mark and wall street's biggest sees even more gains ahead. a marvelous move for disney today. shares jumping more than 4% to close out the session.
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guy staking it down to pitch it. we start with a big bank bananza. q2 kicks off tomorrow with reports from jpmorgan chase. one of our traders says this recent rally is giving her pause heading into the earnings reports. we're talking with karen finerman as we take a look at this set up, what do you think it means do you like the strength going into these earnings reports? >> well, i like the strength except that so much of the
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response to earnings is about how high the bar was going into earnings the stock was 150. it's higher and i think it will probably come out for pretty good earnings. we know the net interest margin will be under pressure more so after the quarter closed as bond rates went down. we know the capital markets activity was good and trading was good and banking was good and advisory asset management was good i think the market may think those are more sort of one offs as opposed to the net interest margin and the landing business which is their true business and that was weak. i'm not selling stock at all i'm long banks jpmorgan, citibank and wells has a different attraction for me.
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it's unfortunate it ran up so high on nothing going into earnings tomorrow. i want to hear loan growth that will be the most important thing. i always love to hear jamie dimon talk any way >> i think a lot of folks like to hear jamie dimon talk guy, i turn to you here because the set up is something that a lot of traders are watching now. it's also about whether or not this kind of financial momentum can continue the it's probably the second best performing sector in the s&p 500. second only to energy and we know where energy came from about a year or so ago do the big banks deserve the kind of momentum we have seen trainers put in over the last six to nine months >> i believe they do by the way, when karen talks about, you should listen the karen all the time when she talks about banks. she stepped in and said it
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doesn't make sense you can see what the move has been listen when she says she is cautious going in. i understand that cautious i will say i still think there's tail ends for the banks. i understand jpmorgan. i'm not as enthusiastic as listening to jamie dimon as karen is every time citibank gets down to about 85% of tangible when it traded at 66, that's been a bottom i think it trades there. blackstone which dan will correctly point out is not a bank but it is a financial stock made a new all time high today. they report next wendnesday, i believe. >> i'm going to look to my right because it's so nice to be here just more than six feet away, socially distant from dan. i'm going take this opportunity because i can look you right in
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the eye, and say do you like it? the asset managers were a big trade today. i investco made some moves today i take a little -- i disagree with guy there this stock has massively under performed. many of the banks are up between 24 and 45% or so there's something going on there. also when you talk about, i think karen laid out the set up pretty good. not great with some of the ones the investment bank have shown relative strength to the money center banks i think they are up 40% of the year they look like they will take out their new highs on any good news that being said, we got a lot of good news. we have gotten the buy backs and the difr did hevidend increases i think jamie dimon said seeing a bit of loan growth
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that's not great you seeing deposits up you seeing rates that came in. that probably does not speak too well for q3, in my opinion i think we have seen a big surge in q2 and capital market activity i suspect that slows down a bit. then we start getting into the back half of the year. no i'm not that excited >> we just showed all our viewers the chart went up that we saw was the s&p 500 regional bank etf the reason i want to bring this into the discussion is because interest rate vs been at the center of a lot of the market volatility we have seen as of late it's because of those moves that we have seen regional banks react more so. how much more of a tell will the
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regional banks be? >> r.j.egional banks is all abot that you want to see the regional banks say, we think the worse is behind us on the bond markets. we're seeing some demand that's the real key here does the american public demand loans loans? do they want to brother money? that's a vote of confidence. that's the real key. ahead of that, we also have cpi coming out which could move rates as well. if you're trying to get a read, it's all about loan growth right now. everything else might be as good as we get.
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>> think about what china just did and bk, you were talking about it on friday's show. you think about you're anticipate whag the bank ceos will say about the back half of the year at this stage of recovery, i would be a little careful. to me, i think we have difficult compare sops it's a lot of good news and keep an eye on what the pace of china's recovery is. >> karen, can i bring this back to you you kicked this thing off. as we take about the leading indicators for this particular season, it's ban great point that dan has just made not because they are better. it's they came out quicker than we did so it was a blue print.
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does it tell you anything at all? maybe nothing about what's happening with the u.s. banking system are we going to follow them into some kind of stalling out in the u.s. economy overall >> that's a trillion dollar question i think we're in the reopening binge. i think we have a little ways to go china was four, five, maybe six months ahead of us if they are just stalling now, i feel like we have a ways to go i do think that we're going to see that loan growth i think banks will be the beneficiary. i also think that it's some of the things that are good about the economy, consumers having a lot of money that's not so great for banks if credit card balances are low we want the balances to pick up. that would be good
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i'm optimistic they will have good things to say >> guy, when you look from your stand point, i look at it and say if i allocate money it's to the money centers like jpmorgan or city or bank of america is there place where you feel like you want to be ahead of the earnings season? which part of the banking spectrum will it be? >> it's a good question. i would say a surer sign i think that rates are headed higher the best is over the worst is over. he was saying in terms of yields bottoming out, he thought the trade was probably over and yields are headed back higher. i agree. chris on thursday and he pretty much laid out what transpired over the last two trading sessions or so i think rates higher high rates should help the insurer. to answer your question in that
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overall financial bucket, names like crew metlife are breast int - interesting here >> we may be in nor a ruds awakening when the bank earnings start to cross let's get to carter. i don't like rude awakenings take us through what exactly will startle me besides my alarm that sometimes goes off at 2:00 in the morning >> exactly i think it's what karen said the results are likely okay. there's only results in how stocks react to those figures.
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the numbers were darn good it was peaking that month and downward sloping ever since. i have a few charts. i know if you have them on the screen the thing to look at how banks despite making new al time highs, the index just in the past getting above the 2007 peak that's a long p to get back. the question is one really compensated for the risk in the beta associated with very cyclical area of the markets in principle, the answer has opinion no there are always ones that are better i have some favorites. one look at the big financial reporting this week. i think black rock will be okay. goldman, morgan stanley.
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>> if it doesn't look good, what exactly could make it look better for some of your not so favorite picks are you watching the charts behind the ten-year yield closely. is that what's going to drive the trade for all of these is that tail that's kind of wagging the dog or vice versa >> not so much they all have bit of tough go here lately. here back at 135, 136, i think rates are where they belong and that's not really the driver now. now it's going to be about copying against very hard numbers, hard to come up against from the training activity and also just the general risk that we are seeing some peak economic
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data and by association maybe come to the more defensive and less cyclical. >> all right there's the call interest rates at the level they should be will be something there. thanks very much for that. we have a huge interview coming your way tomorrow. be sure to catch our exclusive interview with goldman sach's chairman and ceo david solomon on the bank's earning report that's tomorrow 3:00 p.m. eastern time a big exclusive coming fresh off the earnings report. a must watch interview coming p up goldman sachs is reporting jpmorgan is out there. dan, i'm going to look to you first because you're sitting right next to me, physically speaking among those stocks an the two that come out the next day, it's money center or investment banks. two parts of the spectrum that are important. what's the favorite for you right now?
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>> goldman sachs will have a good report. i think carter laid it out good what is expected and how better, i think expectations across the whole group are up 100% year over year. expectations are really high i don't love the money centers i see some bad action in bank america and citigroup and wells fargo. i don't like any of them >> all right,sir taking over the nasdaq 100 going for its nineth straight week of gains. just a few minutes to break it ul down. disney ease plajic lighting up today on the back of some very strong box office results. the best since the pandemic stard.te fast money returns after this.
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how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. welcome back to "fast money. magic is in the air for disney that stock up by over 4% on today's session. let's get to julia with more on this very big move it's a dow component it doesn't go up that much in a day very often what's driving it?
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>> disney's black widow just reported $80 million over the weekend just here domestically it also made another record. it generated over $60 million from selling the film to disney plus subscribers for $30 it brings it nearly all of that revenue compared to the box office from which it only takes about half of that revenue this is fist time a studio has revealed how much revenue is generated from digital distribution those two numbers, the box office and the digital show for disney the simultaneously release plan does seem to be working. i spoke to former tiktok ceo, he helped launch disney plus. >> it's great for disney that they can put a film of that high quality both in theaters and on disney plus, charge an extra price for it take essentially, much more of that revenue that than they can
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take from a settlement i think it's basic positive. >> the theeater chains are trading lower today. amc shares down 8% cinemark down 7% analyst saying it seems the streaming window significantly curtailed saturday and sunday results. he warns quote the recovery of global box office appears to be painfully slow and potentially permanently incomplete another fact to consider here, disney managed to do so well with disney plus subscribers and in theaters, that means the studio will have the power of negotiations with those theater chains going forward >> that's a bunch of stuff to go through. thank you very much for that let's take a look at this disney trade now. it's one where it's been stalled out for a little bit and now it's regained some of that mojo, that momentum.
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the you take a look at this and bryan kelly, i'll start with you. this disney trade has been about streaming for arguably years now at this point. the anticipation of and kind of the momentum through the pandemic and everything else is this just the catch up trade or does this really catalyze that whole movement? >> i think for disney, this is entering the proof stage we have this release of disney plus everybody bought it because they wanted to see hamilton for the 47th time and all of a sudden, they said, there's nothing else on there there's no content this weekend comes along and you say if disney has goodo content. they have multiple channels and that disney plus is a significant revenue driver that's a big change from the past year with disney.
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i think this is a big catalyst here disney has been going down to sideways since march it's been the sleeping giant and now you have this proof positive that they are distribution model works. i think disney could go on a nice little run here >> guy, if this diz nigh we're showing now that the box office numbers split, the u.s. box office was $80 million take. $60 million on disney plus streaming. you have to get the premier access i think it was 30 bucks extra to stream the video on its own. is this a reason to be bullish on disney. the fact they are getting almost as much in terms of a big box office opening from at home versus in theaters i know i would go see that theater or that type of movie in a theater physically itself. >>yeah i'll leave that to you there are a number of things i'd rather do, comb my hair being one of them before i go to see whatever that movie was. it's not exactly citizen kane,
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but is it a reason do be bullish? absolutely he would say this is the fly wheel effect that makes disney so tok probably continues this next leg higher probably is a catalyst for the next move. >> is that too much to pay for disney >> he hat down to buy it investors look back ten years from now and look at the suite of royalties that come from the
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marvel universe, the pixar universe lit be something unmamped in media history. one of the biggest knock ons the multiple for disney over the last year or so since the spro duc introduction of disney plus was cheap pricing. it says they have the opportunity to lay out some tiered pricing, different models where they will start getting more here in north america i think it's a hint we'll see different pricing going forward. >> they just announced a price raise for certain parts of that disney plus bundle as well we're just getting started here. here is what's coming up next. >> tech on a tear. the nasdaq 100 going for its nineth straight week of gains. we'll break down what's next for this red shot trade. bases loaded, bot dom of the nineth it's all in guy's hands.
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we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. all right,s welcome back to "fast money. it was a big day here is a staggering stat for you. the nasdaq 100 is going for its nineth straight week of gains as the big tech trade takes off our next guest says there's still some momentum left in that tech rally let's bring in jonathan. jonathan, as long as i've known you and it's been well over a
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decade at this point, you've been relatively bullish on the market and you've been correct it's got to end at some point. why are you still so bullish >> first of all, the markets are driven by one simple thing that over time earnings grow. if you look at the stock market which has been on fire for the last year, it's keeping almost perfect step with the earnings getting better valuations for all the market going up are not any higher now than they were a year ago. that's the big story i continue to be confident >> now, is it the technology trade that's driving it? it's call it 27, 28% of the s&p 500. we have known that technology has been the big driver force behind the market for years now, arguably over now. what exactly is the key component of the technology
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trade? are they the primary engine of earning growth that keep the rally going? >> i don't think so. if you take a look at what's going on this earning season, crazy numbers. we're expecting 500% really bad number a year ago in cyclical sector the banks are supposed to be up 100% technology is supposed to be up a measly 30 to 40% we think numbers will be on each of those groups but the real sizzle right now has been in the more economically sensitive old economy companies. what's really driving the leadership in growth stocks and tech in particular has been weaker interest rates. the risk here for this dproet trade is not that they disappointed earnings. they will shoot the lights out the real risk is interest rates start to rise again because of
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confidence in the economy and they do less well than son-insome of these old stocks >> how many higher we had 1.77 in late march. a lot of people saying 2% should be something we get to in the not so distant future. >> first of all, i didn't say higher interest rates were a risk for stock market. they were risk for growth and performance. if we see interest rates rise, that's a good sign that means the economy is strong and demand for capital is high that won't play out well it plays better for value
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stocks what i expect to see is a very strong earning season across the board. the fundamentals are better in value land they better in old economies stuff, in mining, metals and industrial companies and old fashion brick and mortar retail. all of those things will put up much better year over year earnings growth. what you need to see in growth is good numbers but an interest rate that's not rising that's a very narrow tight rope to walk, if you will >> all right it's a broader market rally. it's good for the overall scheme of things. thank you very much. let's trade this and talk a bit about that value cyclical side of things. karen finerman, if you look at the economically sensitive stocks, the cyclicals, so to speak, they have been leading this pandemic recovery trade it's the travel and leisure type things it's the restaurant company, airlines
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it's metals and mining to jonathan's point is that what's going to drive things going forward is the broadening out of the market rally really that good? can it continue to power things to new record highs? >> i think so. we till have some reopen trade for some of the retail to me the fly in the ointsment is a cpi that's out of control then i don't know what happens >> what do you mean out of control? i thought this whole inflation story was transitory >> it seems at the moment the feds transitory description is working.
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it feels like it would pressure a lot of things, wages, but also other things ta make up the cpi. a lot of companies have pricing power and so we see a cpi come in really hot, i think we're looking at .4 is the expectation tomorrow i think if we come up something hotter than that, like a .6, that's probably not fogoing to great for the market >> people have been going because of that fear of inflation. the new york fed survey result came out an shows there's this expectation among consumers that the inflation will pick up i know that people have been going into metals and mining stocks you've been one of those folks you talked about freeport in the past is that still a trade you find works given what you think the outlook for inflation will be in. >> i do and i appreciate you watching cnbc "fast money," which you host from time to time that's been painful but that's
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the way these stocks trade they do go up in a straight line but go up twice as fast. i don't think by any stretch this resource trade is over. i do think rates will go higher. i just love jonathan's narrow tight rope that's sort of like young rookie i'm nitpicking in terms of the description. i'm in agreement i think dan will agree that he it probably rallies into earnings at the end of the month. those stocks seem to be teflon it will be a point when rates get to north of 175 where the growth stocks start to sort of feel the weight of hire rates. >> all right the rate picture still in focus silver looking to go gold as reddit traders take home first, our own guy is taking the mound to pitch his next big idea he says this stock is ready to deliver some serious gains i've dropped a will the of hints
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there.
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welcome back the transportation trade has been struggling as of late
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guy says this shipping stock is setting up for a big break out he will step up to mound with his fast pitch guy, fire away >> i love the power pitch. the folks at power lunch are not happy with us. federal express is what we'll talk about here. they reported on june 25th the knee jerk reaction was to whack the stock and get traded down to 291 or so. the stock has traded really well ever since here are the three reasons that i like it. first, valuation the current prices is trading about 13 times next year's anytimes in comparison u.p.s. trades around 18.5. i'm not suggesting it should have the same valuation but should be close. valuation is number one. number two, improving margins and you saw that in the ground ground being the number two revenue general ratser in the company. number three, fedex has a business update on august 10th i think they will say wonderful things there you know say what you want but
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this is a company that was doing everything wrong a year and a half ago they are doing everything right now. i think for whatever reason the pandemic forced them to take a hard look at their business. the efficiencies are there i think it will manifest itself in stock going higher. i can make a very compelling argument this stock should be north of 345050 based on valuats and some other things we talked about. >> it's a stock that's up 90% but it's stalled out karen, step up and take a swing. do you have a question for guy on that particular move? >> i do. there's an argument that the shipping space is crowded. how the you look at it right now? >> well, it might be crowded but there's still only two dominant players. say what you want, there's other ancillary people, guys and gals getting in fedex and u.p.s. are still the grand daddy of them all to quote the great heath jackson.
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they also have pricing power it's something you and i talked about before the show. say what you want but the pricing power is there costs be go higher but they will be able to pass it on. it's working for them. yes there are players but the two players that really matter still remain u.p.s. and fedex. fetd fedex is just too cheap at these levels >> no more questions it's time to vote. are you buying the pitch on fedex or not karen, we start with you >> he had me at hello. i love this company. i have a big position here yes. >> and art work. i had no idea that you had that kind of -- >> that's sadly the best i can do that's the best i can do >> karen, it's better than i can do i'm going to give you props for that right now b.k., bryan kelly. >> my concern is you don't have the pricing power or this is as good as it gets because the
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space is crowded for me, i'm a seller >> you saw this. nancy handed me a purple and orange marker. i'm going right in here. next year trading at 12 time it's cheap stock i think the technical set up well the catalyst that guy named, i like fedex >> it's not lost on us of us that you used the fedex colors your smart board as well thank you for the artistic ability there. are you buying guy's fast pitch on fedex vote in our twitter poll
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@cnbcfastmoney silver is looking to shine we are bakg wnhectn reindo t aio next don't go anywhere. well, geico's 85 years isn't just about time, you know. it means experience. i mean, put it this way. if i told you i'd been jarring raspberry preserves for 85 years, what would you think? (humming) well, at first you'd be like, "that has gotta be some scrumptious jam!" (humming) and then you'd think, "he looks fantastic! i must know his skin care routine." geico. saving people money for 85 years. beg your pardon. ugh, these balls are moist. or is that the damp weight of self-awareness you now hold in your hand? yeah-h-h. (laugh) keep your downstairs dry with gold bond body powder.
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welcome back to "fast money. one group thinks they can push that mcommodity to $1,000 an ounce. christina, i don't know. how do kwoyou get from 26 to 1,0 >> they are called the silver stackers or wall street silver they encourage each other to buy bars and coins of silver as a hedge against inflation. there's another website that markets t-shirts that say cash is trash silver is money. they want to push out the price of silver.
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retail traders argue there's more paper claim than actual tangible silver. supply would run short and the price would surge. the kwsqueeze on silver does differ there's a lot of silver and not as many short serls to attack. >> if you think of history of silver, humanity has opinion this stuff since we discovered picks and shovels. there's plenty above ground. ate a little like gold, it doesn't get thrown away. >> they plooef currencies are vulnerable they help push up the price of
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vi silver for a five month high it's expected to soar to 26% of total demand that's up from 8% just last year one member of a group called silver apes told me he believes the market is manipulated by certain banks. that's why he's holding onto this stuff a little longer >> that's a flex there she's got bar of it. i got some silver eagles and silver dollars around my house in a shoe box. thank you very much for bringing us that silver trade let's trade it her bar and all. if you take a look at this, i go to you for this first. do you believe that there can be any way that silver, we saw the squeeze back in february of this year the squeeze got you to maybe 30, 31 level 1,000 is far leap, is it not >> 1,000 is far leap from $26. if i do that math that seems to
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be a very big jump that being said, the hunt brothers tried to do it back in the '70 and it worked for a while. they cornered the silver market and the people came back and raised margins and went bankrupt yeah, could you create a short squeeze in any commodity by buying it up absolutely i think you get break out here i'm still going to be happy. i don't think you need to think the thousands dollar is your price target >> he joins us with the options action on this have you seen anything is there any activity that indicates this could be a trade that gets you above that $30 level? >> we did see above average call
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volume on the september silver futures. that's the most active futures contract the front month for silver we saw well over 4,000 of those trade overall. the most active contracts where we saw calls outpacing puts by about 17 to 1 were the september 31 calls we saw a little over those trading for about a dime buyers are betting silver could rise 18% or more by august 26th. that's when these options expire 1300 contracts may not sound like a lot in context of some of the etfs we see. the important thing is futures represent 5,000 ounces that's a multiplier, 50 times as large as what you're seeing on equities in fact, those 1300 call contracts represent more than the top three most active call contracts on slv which is the etf that tracks it that trade add about near 70,000
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calls today. we are seeing some bullish activity and seeing more on the option side. >> some options for sure for more option action tune in on friday at 5:30 eastern time right here on cnbc a lot of playing going on. coming up, shares of virgin galactic dropping in today's session despite company founder successful sub or other bital test flight. there's time for fast pitch on fedex. head over to our twitter poll. fast money is back after this. ♪
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xfinity internet customers, take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit an xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes it easy to switch and save hundreds. welcome back to fast money what you're seeing right there is a sneak peek at the cramer cam. you can catch the interview at
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the top of the hour on "mad money" in just about seven minutes time check out shares of virgin galactic falling hard. down by about 17% despite founder richard branson successful test flight to sub orbital space. b what do you make of it i'll start with you dan. what do you make of this se secondary offering >> give the people what they want the stock had gone from below 20 bucks. maybe as low as 15 and as high as high 50s here a lot of anticipation about this flight it went off without a hitch. it gives investors a preview of what might be the commercial experience there's not a better person than richard bran zone to articulate that this is a re-revenue company, couldn't see too many scenarios especially with the blue origin
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flight coming in a week or so where this was going to go well for them after the event to me, you could have looked at a options market the skew in the calls, demand for calls versus downside puts was off the charts >> karen finerman, does the space race interest you? is there something that gets you excited about whether or not virgin galactic is something you want to buy on a 17% dip >> well, i'm swayed on the op sitz of peter lynch, buy what you like i would hate to go on space travel, this kind of flight. there's no way the thing that does interest me is ultra super sonic space travel i think youunited airlines placd an order for planes that get you from new york to london in three and a half hours that's interesting it's interesti ing potential business
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this is no, not so interesting to me here i have none. nothing in space no pun intended. >> nothing many the space. there's still time to vote forget about virgin galactic for now. we'll bring you the results and your final trades coming up after this this is dr. arnold t. petsworth, he's the owner of petsworth vetworld. business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers spending potential that's built for his changing business needs. he used his card to furnish a new exam room and everyone was happy.
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welcome back whether twitter was buying guy's fast pitch more than 57% of the voters are buying guy's pitch on fedex. yes, congratulations on that it's now time for the final trade. look at this yes. yes. >> this is one of the voters i'm so old not only do i have nieces and nephew, i have grand nieces she voted. fedex is both of our final trade. right. >> outstanding bk, what's yours >> to me it's tbt >> karen >> it's graph tech eaf for electric e furnances.
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>> spy i'm not callinga comp here but i think it's really interesting one month out. good way to protect. >> fall kauling in near term thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" is coming up bye bella. bye. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job isn't just to entertain but to educate you s call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. when you wake up at 4:00 a.m., you'll learn a ton about the market i encourage you to try it. if you want to

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