tv Closing Bell CNBC July 2, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
nervous -- he 's afraid of height. >> it's almost the holiday weekend, i have a little tweet i'm going to send. i like doing this on the weekend. >> i get a front-row seat. >> 3, 2, 1 -- there it goes. >> and "closing bell" starts right now. two hours ahead of us. oh, well, welcome to -- >> you're taking off early. >> in fact, we need to discuss washington at 4:55 >> here on the show. for now, welcome to "closing bell." stocks are higher following the june jobs, with the s&p 500 on tract, you guessed it, for another report close. >> happy friday. i'm sara eisen the june jobs report topping
expectations versus estimates of just over 700,000. the unemployment rate did tick up to 5.9% megataps like apple, microsoft, salesforce, and small caps are lagging today, on pace to close lower by an -- around 1%, while the major averaging are firmly in the green on record close watch, as wilfred said, for the seventh day in a row. coming up today, scott black joins us with two picks he likes for the second half of the year, including what he calls an obscure infrastructure play. plus tesla delivering more than 200,000 vehicles in the quarter for the first time >> i knew that
hot, that's enabling from growth names to take over take a look at the benefits of size we've talked about this a bit this week. here's over the last three months, the leading and lagging groups qqq has been the clear leader, but then it's a hierarchy down to the s&p 500 the equal-weighted version of the s&p, so that doesn't have quite the benefit of the megacaps, and then the mid cap index has outperforming for months, but in the last three is not taking new highs >> in the market, it's been a great place to be for quite a long time. yes, the meme stocks, for lack of a better phrase, they have actually been a bit in retreat this week. now, remember, the nasdaq is up 1.8%, the s&p is up 1.6% blackberry, goveramestop.
they wax and wane just because they get reset lower doesn't mean game over, but it does show they're uncorrelated and in fact do better when the huge stocks are not actually on a good run we'll see if it gets swapped back and forth guys >> thanks so much for that, up 0.6% on the s&p with just under an hour left let's bring in art cashin, good afternoon to you, art. great to see you, as always. >> and my honor to be with you guys >> so talk us through what you make, first of all, of that number this morning and whether you're surprised about the market reaction. >> well, let's go backwards. first of all, the market came in with a mild advantage this morning. the friday before a three-day weekend, has a 65% bias to the
up side. secondarily, the first two to three weeks of july -- and july is one of the favorable months of the year, not be the amount, but the frequency with which it turns out to be up so the first two to three weeks have a bias, not quite as strong as the three-day weekend bias, so the bulls were already in control. they look like they're in pretty good shape i would suggest to you that the numbers this morning was a bit of a goldilocks number we have fallen behind wall street estimates over the last three, four times. a lot of people felt that was because both wall street and some of the other pseudoprofessionals were missing out on things like early retirements, whatnot the fact that they came in and exceeded the number was good it wasn't such a blowout
it doesn't change things like the unemployment rate so drastically that it could push the fed along, and as i coined the phrase years ago, it was a g goldilocks number, not too hot, not too cold, just about right i think they reacted that way. i think the yield on the ten-year, we're in kind of a special place. you've had mike and rick santelli talking about foreign governments seeing a favorable rate here. everybody is scrambling around, looking for some kind of yield secre secondarily, we just went through a reweighting, so your portfolio is a bit out of balance, so they're probably buying the bond area, and that
has supported things, not what classic economics would necessarily tell you is going on, but in today's global economics, under that yields are down what's your viewart, for the second half of this year could it be as strong as the first half >> well, you know, success leads to other success, yeah, hi historically when the first of the year is as good as this, it's usually followed pretty well on, getting back to seaso seasonality, july usually looks pretty good, august is not too difficult a month. once we start to move toward the next quarter, september is notoriously one of the weaker months of the year surprises tend to pop up and weigh down on stocks october is famous for being the
month of bottoms usually the sell-offs that start in september or earlier find some kind of a bottom often around the last weekend of october. so i think we'll have a good second half. i don't think it may be quite as glorious as the first one, but if we can improve on what we did in the first half, i'll take that any day of the year >> it is the word, i would say of of this good but not great day keeping things on hold that seems to be the reaction totally to jobs. >> he can call of our old friend ron insana -- >> i believe you >> a couple weeks after it happened, former labor secretary robert reich came on, and he was on ron's program, and as he
said, i coined the phrase goal i l -- goldilocks economy -- ron insana said -- i've been dating goldilocks for a long time. >> it's an amazing story, art. always why we turn to you for the analysis on the jobs point, just to further prove that point, on wages, for instance, a lot of people are pointing to wages, but it's at a slower rate than we say in may and april. the unemployment rate goes up, which speaks to slack, so overall would you favor the moving toward rate hikes if it comes on in the coming weeks >> well, i think today's number did little to it talking about fading taper, you should take a bow, young lady.
it was almost 2 1/2 weeks ago, i get when you asked mr. bullock of the st. louis fed, how do you explain still buying mortgage-backed securities, when the real estate market is that hot, and he skinned of sputtered a bit and tried to defer to the chairman now, since you brought it to light, the fed -- regional presidents are walking up and self-confessing, giving the, of course we're going to have to look at the mortgage-backed securities it's not too logical you have introduced that the fed is finally owning up if there's a bit of a taper, i'm sure it would be in that direction, and you deserve some credit for that. >> well, thank you just because i read smart notes ever money like yours, art >> art, come back again soon and have a lovely weekend. >> my pleasure, as the cashin family says, have a fifth on the fourth
all right? >> sounds good. >> or a tenth, or a sixth. art, thank you, art "goldilocks" cashin >> always the best. after the break, oil's rapid rise crews crude is up more than 50%, and touching its highest level as opec meets we'll ask an expert where oil could be headed next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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energy is the best-performing sectoree to date, up 44%, and oil prices is hit their high zest levels since 2018 tom closesa is the founder of oil price -- service, what do you think opec will do >> i think they've got an agreement this is not a commodity super cycle yet. i hail to use jerome's term but this is going to be transitory we're part of the high price club, mea culpa, and i think we'll see $80.
you don't need to be a lunatic to see 100, but that will be in. prices in 2022 will be lower than 2021. >> why do you think this is unsustainable? >> i think there's seduction, and the united arab emirates certainly looks as though they don't want to have to stunt production forever >> so i think they recognize, as much discipline as has been shown by the u.s. companies, we're going to see some extra hype olympic come on these prices are no-brainer for an awful lot of companies. opec-plus has been as discipline
as an -- but that will not last forever. this is going to a sizzling and dynamic summer i think we'll see 325 to 350 in terms of average prices. if we see that pop to $100 a barrel with a lot of financial flows coming in, we could see 350 to 4, and we'll see much higher prices in the western geography. we actually have tight supply when you get west of the mississippi. here east of the mississippi, there's plenty of gasoline, but the one thing you see is we don't have enough drivers to take the hoses and pump the gasoline from the terminals to the stations watch out for that >> pivot voting back, what are the swing factors on the demand
side that could suggest prices go higher? wti had a lot of financial flows. so i think the sizzling one may be the bruntcrude oil. it's got a speculative sku, but i think there's pressure on both of those fronts in the next 60 days the one fly in the ointment could be gasoline demand the expectations irthat july august, will be about half a million barrels higher in north america. i think leisure travel, for certain will be very, very brisk, but a lot of people are still not commuting or back to the workplace. it's still a mixed bag.
>> what you do you -- which is what most people are reporting rite now, with what's taking so long can they blot that >> i don't think they'll block it i think it signals the uae and probably other silent members don't want to keep cutting production you know, they can read the news, see that ebs will have an intrusion sometime in the keck kay, so they need to make hay while the sun is shining, as art cashing might say. >> tom kloza, thank you. up next, billionaires blast nocic e virgin galacti
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the billionaires space race is taking off. shares of virgin galactic are well off their highs after the company announced they would launch nine days ahead of jeff bezos' blue origin trip. they were talking about why now it's time for branson to fly >> we have finished the data analysis that allowed us to announce our flight date yet. we also have been planning for richard to be one of our test mission specialists, because we wanted him to represent all the future astronauts who are coming this is going to be an amazing transformative event that they planned for for much of their lives.
who better than richard, when he comes back, for us to interview and say, how was that? how did we deliver >> let's bring in cnbc.com's space reporter mark sheetz, can he get into space next week? >> he might well try, but the only indication that elon is paying attention to it was a joke on twitter last night whether he could pay a flight with dogecoin. spacex, they fly missions to orbit. difficult class, different capabilities, and it's a culmination of what people are waiting for the space race between the billion theirs has been talked about so long, and this july it's actually, truly happening. a nine-day difference is a
really, really small window in this brandon has an opportunity to beat bezos. in the space industry, you see launches get delayed by days or even weeks quite fast-requently. >> obviously we wish success on this, and he's been working on it for a long time it's been a long endeavor. what do you mean by the spacex orbit aspect versus virgin galactic. >> that's a big part of how this space is evolving. you break it down into suborbital space tourism and orbital. suborbital is where branson and
bezos are focused on, around 300,000 feet altitude. far above what an airport would go, into what's known as the edge of space. you're float fog a few minutes in microgravity. that's substantially different from the people would have with a private flight in september will have, flying with space exon the dragon spike craft. that's going all the way into orbit. you're talking about spending days or even weeks or months in space rather than just a few minutes. >> michael, thanks so much for that still to come, getting in the esg spirit, we'll speak with john suntory and value investor scott black
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market movers. shares of krispy kreme falling on the second day of trading it returned to the public fire years after beg taken private. it's debuted at 17. the complaint alleged that broadcom entered into long-term agreements that prevented chips being purchased by competitors rahel solomon has the update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. republicans in pennsylvania's senate are discussing an investigation into how last year's presidential election was conducted. senator doug mastriano reportedly briefing on others.
he did not respond to questions. authorities from barbados reporting no deaths. elsa may hit florida on tuesday after weak 1/2 to a tropical storm. with july 4th almost here, it's a time for warning. los angeles firefighters and bomb squad members blowing up things and what y-- >> rahel, thank you. when we come back. value investor scott black is here with his topics. later, mark short, former chief of staff to vice president mike pence, will join us to weigh in on today's strong jobs reports and the telast policy proposals. we'll be right back. dow is up 150. [wrestling bell rings] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] ♪ try to be best 'cause you're only a man ♪
stocks are rallies today on the better-than-expected jobs report let's brick in scott black, founder and president of delphi management thanks for joining us. >> thank you for inviting me a big picture first. are yoconstructive or cautious for the second half of this year >> i think they'll be up the reason being though the market is expensive, the rates are so low, the ten-year's around 142 the fedly totally accommodative. the punch bowl is still there,
the large-cap stocks as you look at the last quarter, the nasdaq up over 11% respectively you look at the small and mid cap indices. they've been left in the dust. the nasdaq, the top five stocks is 42% weighting, in the s&p, the top five is 21%. there's rotation back into the large-cap growth names >> and not the small caps, not the russell 2000 is the value trade over, if you think the fed is going to be in the game for a long time, and it's back to growth? >> we try nod to do that we're up between 24 and 25%. we don't veer from our strategy. i've been in business 41 years >> what i try to do is buy companies can high returns on
equity with growing earnings, but still at low multiples so if you're interested, i have a couple picks for you today. >> give us the first one >> it's a good place on infrastructure, especially if mr. biden gets the bills through congress it's a little company with a market cap of about $630 million, in mt. airie, north carolina, the largest united states manufacturer of steel wire that goes into all sorts of concrete basically 36% of it is concrete strand the other is welded wire it goes into mundane things like bridges, water and sewage treatment, highways, roads, et cetera it's basically a pure play they have the highest gross margins since 2016 it's a recovery high, and the
stock right now is approximately $32 a share. there's absolutely no debt and you have nice acceleration i fick for the next six months in sit, they'll do about $1.a, so i don't think you have a lot of risk. >> stock shooting higher, as you make your case, scott, so it doesn't need to have the infrastructure deal pass in washington for this to be a good play >> well, it's still going well it's still a cheap stock, but the bottom like is you have an infrastructure bill, and the stoblg can rally it's pulled back, and we used this as an opportunity to buy is here in the low 30s. >> let's have your other pick you've got today western digital.
>> exactly you probably know, it's a disk drive company, solid state drives and flash memory. in every one of their market segment they're basic live number two in shares, behind seagate in drives, and also with their joint venture with toshiba in flash memory. the street strimt'sestimate's a higher than mine i use $8.65. the gross margins are lifting. we just had a conference with them they expect to take out about 15% in cost structure. they generate nothing but cashier in year out.
prospectively 13% return right at the above as i say strong free cash flow so, you know, most tech stocks are selling 15, 20, 25 multiples, this is awfully cheap. >> really quickly scott, you pitched m.i. home last time which has been a winner, but basically peaked in may. does that mean the homebuilder trade is over? >> it's interesting usual mention that 3.34%, which by historic norms, there's a pent-up demand they're all poised to do very well they're not selling million
dollar homes we saw what the median was in new york you just had a segment they're selling homes at $400,000 so i think the housing sector has a wind to its back there may be a temporary pause, but with low interest rates and huge demand. lumber prices have abated since i spoke to you, so i'm still bullish. >> have a lovely weekend >> thank you very much for inviting me. you too. up nest, shares of lordstown get crushed. and c-suite shake-up at ibm. more as we go into the market zone that's next. a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq-100 like you become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq [swords clashing] - had enough? - no... arthritis. here. new aspercreme arthritis.
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14 minutes to go in the trading day. we are now in the "closing bell" market zone, commercial-free coverage mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading today, and today we have greg branch back as well welcome, greg. major averages rallying today. the dow is a big dial. 34,777 is the level. >> it shows that this isn't quite the either/or market, meaning that the dow sort of -- thinks the big ease.
based on levitating, and this idea was encouraging on both fronds and basically schooled off, and then it gets into this mode of, it didn't give me a reason to be if we in a slower for longer >> what was your take, greg? >> i thought it was good. >> the met will change its attention, so the labor market, returning it to full health is well underway. we had a job consumption we expect to see lots of people
return to the labor market that allows the fed to return to its other mandate. as mike said, you know, seeing wage growth can you um in a bit the commodity ppi , the numbers we haven't seen in 30, 40 years. >> if they'll start to change the posture. you've also got a really >> it's the noncyclicals we
lordstown issues a same so that our new leadership solely on producing the first and best full size, the lordstown endurance. remember, on march 18, that's when we did an interview with the. er ceo and asked him about the allegations brought forth. and steve burns confirmed for us on air, well, we said they were more an indication of interest lordstown under investigation by the doj let's pivot vote to the story. this is a stocked that could have been under pressure given the events that happened early this morning
out in, it was out when it had some engine trouble. this is video brought into the hospital one pilot is in serious condition. the other pilot is in critical condition. this ended much better than many people feared when the plane radioed it was having problems take a look at shares of boeing warm-up more time, do you 1.3% today. guys, back to you. >> those with authorities pilots and families the biggest drag is ibm. high-profile executive
departure. josh has the details. >> this was big surprising news, the company announcing today that president and former ceo is trading done evercorp telling clients, whitehurst, a well-admired, and red hat's revenue grew 17% while ibm grew as a whole. he'll stake on as a senior advisory to the ibm team back to you all. >> about some of these moving, obviously the market does that like it. here's what he told me, it's been three years since the acquisition. jim has been instrumental, incredibly gracious, he stayed
on for a year and a half after the deal closed. hi's been running it for the last year and a half it shows red hat is even more important. also, we talked a bit about gary cohn, he understands government and clients, and then on the biz, he can't talk about it, because they're going to go into earnings, but he points to -- there's a lot of optimism in north america the market was surprised by this he was in line to get the job.
so not sure why it was so shocking, but i guess it's been the crown jewel and the grower. >> i guess if you thought there was going to be a bit more of a cultural takeover in ibm after the red hat deal, maybe this would be a disappointment. the stock had a hard time getting out of its own way, but had a nice run recently, and has been coming off of that. the conviction is shallow in the story, eventhough things seem tore moving in the right direction. >> as if they were pivoting back, but under krishna, it's unlikely to be the case. ibm down 4.7%. china announcing a security probe. the move comes two days after the ridesharing company debuted
on the new york stock exchange it says it plans to fully cooperate with china's review. bank of america says the successful debut should provide a boost to uber's -- may not be ideal timing for didi, and understandably leading to a low earlier in the session obviously perhaps it was tactically timed by the chinese authorities to take some of the attention away for didi. in terms of uber, it's not clear to me, you know, that this embedded value of the didistake is necessarily going to become something that the market will allow to fully reflect even if it triples from here at $6 a share, or just about a tenth of the value from uber here, it doesn't seem like it's
necessarily the way you would want to sum it, though it doesn't hurt to have that exposure to that part of the world, even though people are very focused on the business model, with ar hard time finding drivers. >> i think it also just highlights the risk. a lot of the big ones that are listed here at alibaba that's had its share of regulatory issues do you have any exposure to these names, or do you think investors should stay away >> i don't, right? look, we have enough trouble with big tech in our own legal exposure over here, so figuring out what government exposure, how to quantify it there, trying to predict it, and factor it into your calculus is just too much of a bridge for me to climb. so i stay away from things that are more predictable and more easily models. >> as we head into the close, just a little under two minute to say go, mike, financials and
energy are down, which makes sense. we're seeing yields lower, a reaction to the jobs report. better on the headline, but take it apart, 2 doesn't look good enough to get the fed moving. >> and inflation expectations stay in check. that's definitely take what some of the bond market was clenching up about, when you have the yields rising more than anything it looks like a bit of a slowdown feel, but this has been a bit of a conspicuous issue yesterday was great, very broad rally. today it's pulled ahead in terms of advances over declines, but just barely. most of the day it was backsliding. it's working on the index level. take a look at the quality etf this would be financially stuart sturdy, versus high beta, a much more cyclical and volume tiff. over two days you've seen a bit
of a migration you mentioned health care. that was syncs up pretty well. the volatility index has dipped below 15 there's some thought when it breaks to new lows, you get the systematic trader, that's one aftereffect, but tons of call buying by retail investors, still some support in there. >> we're going to have three record closes not quite where we stand just off the level for the dow. needing a couple points. >> we are back up. >> a trifecta of report closes we definitely will have a record close for the s&p 500 and for the nasdaq technology, consumer discretionary and communication
services are up a soft dollar today. a bit higher still on the week gold and silver getting a bit of a bounce today [ bell ringing ] the dow is just shy by a handful of points off a record close -- my apologies. a trifecta of record closes. >> it gets more and more exciting here on the floor people are back and so are the fireworks. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here with wilfred frost. a triple record close, dow and s&p and nasdaq we haven't seen a record close for the dow since early may, but we got it. you can really thank technology.
microsoft the biggest criminalor to the dow's gains, along with salesforce and a number of other stocks microsoft, by far, the biggest winner s&p 500 also closing at a record high technology leading the charge here on the week up almost 2%. by the way, this is its seventh record closing high day in a row. that's a long winning streak technology real shining as yields come back down. it's been happening in the last few weeks. the biggest contributor on the qqqs was alphabet, amazon, microsoft, apple a familiar tale there transports were also lower, something we'll talk about, the
democrat back would be that significant. >> victoria, what is your view >> well, we've always liked those names. obviously when we're having they rotations between growth and value and the question as to whether yields move higher or lower, we have seen them transition they've been leaders, laggards of the market, with yields coming back down, some of the inflation concerns diminishing, i think it makes sense we're seeing some of these names continue to do well. we actually own the majority of those large-cap names in our portfolio. we see the longer-term trends being positive for those names we still think that even though there's the continued reopening trade and value in cyclicals continue to do well, we like having these growth names in the portfolio and will continue to do so for now.
>> at what point do you start to wonder about that, as the nasdaq does catch up? >> we're looking at peak i was talking about it a moment ago. , and down in the mid teens, still strong, still solid, so maybe, if you don't own some of these names, we could see valuations start to pull back. that would be an opportunity to go in, but even -- we would go and we added it not that long ago, because we continued to see an up trend.
>> or do you thing it's already expecting that trusting jay powell at the moment >> i don't think that the market is pricing it in headwinds that we were cautious of, and we're decimating one right now. that was in the earnings was that real secular growth >> i think the companies are proving it's the latter, so we saw the cloud up 50% digital advertising up, we see software up, hardware up so i think, as we get through these quarters, and the companies prove last year was in and out ago -- we talked about inflation, as the inflation fears come in a bit then growth
in tech will do what it does, in the lack of that headwince and then we got some relief on the headwind, which was government intervention or action it said we need more evidence, more substance if we're going to consider anti-competitive behavior or consider monopoly power, then the anecdotal or diatribe from our elect officials. growth in tech will continue to feel a tailwind into jackson hole the jobs number, i think, means the fed can turn its attention to the other man dade of inflation. the cpi and cpe are in 30, 40-year historical territory, so that will need to be addressed
>> let's dive a bit deeper into the data we got. 850,000 jobs we god last month steve liesman breaks it all down for us. >> still seen by both economists as the, quote, substantial further progress that the fed is looking for to eventually ease back on its stimulus, but not so fast, especially because more strong numbers could be on the way. labor supply constraints gradually dissipates
and that would be the asset purchases later that year. the fed funds market, though, did not move up its schedule for rate hikes in june 2022, it's about 50% october 22 it's 100% of course that depends on the outlook for inflation and whether, by the fall, labor supply constraints have proven to be temporary. that would make the surge transitory if we still have inflation in the fall, the fed timeline could accelerate. >> in that debate between september or meeting shortly after that would he use it so set out a long-term shift rather than the more regular short-term meetings
i think what probably happens is powell says the writing is on the wall, and it's time to start reading the writing on the wall. remember, wilf, the whole purpose of the federal reserve, even more so than it is to avoid inflation. is to avoid a taper tantrum. powell may have succeeded, because they're starting to talk about it, and the bond yields are like 143, 144, so they avoided the first calamity, and maybe, hey, read the writing on the wall, and then maybe september a formal announcement. >> i feel like the market is cool with the tapering, but maybe worried about the rate hikes. if you go beneath the surface, yesterday, the headline was fine, but most of the jobs came from three major sectors, of course, leisure and hospitality, retail and government, construction actually lost jobs. the wage growth was less than it had been in previous months,
which makes the fed's mandate of full employment even farther up, not to mention the slack, so when it comes to the rate highs seduction, it seals like we're not even close will. >> you can't be word about wage growth being so you have an inflation problem you had 10 cents this month, 33 cents the prior two months wage growth is up there. your point about the three sectors is a really important one. right now we're not seeing organic growth and in order to get the organic growth across sectors, you'll have to have that labor supply come back, that's when we're --
the economy is more reopened, that's when labor supply hopefully returns to what it could be. >> steve, lang you >> a pleasure. so it's a lot of the jobs being recovered, which is great to see, but if you take those three sectors, that was 70% of -- >> and they're likely to continue for the next couple months, anyway >> it's also where the wage gains are coming in, which all of this just means the fed has more time to get to the full employment mandate. >> but also would have zero inflation so i think the argument continues i would also point out, okay, wage growth is fractionally behind -- but versus two years ago pre-pandemic, it's growing pretty significantly my question was going to be,
maybe the equity market is okay with tapering, and only will get spooked when we get to rate hikes, but what about the bond market and what might that imply to sector rotation >> first of all, when it's announced, i don't think we're talking about a direct benefit historically when qe has ended, the longer-end yields have gone down, not up it's really not about the money every day going into buy the paper. >> so what does all of this mean, greg, which have moved higher what do you do with those sectors? >> right, i don't think it's the rates there. with the exception of
financials with financials it's the rate. what we are expecting is to see an environment that was more amenable to margin expansion now, those big conglomerates will continue to do well we'll continue to see robust capital markets but we're really looking forward, as the ten-year yield came up, so that has been pushed out i think you'll continue to see the performance concentrated into those big global multiindustry financials, as opposed to regular banks the other two are dependent on the inflationary expectations. when i'm looking at the companies, i like companies able to pass it on. those companies are well insulated. we'll see what the numbers look like, but names like dupont that are so integrated into the supply chain that they could fully pass on the inflationary pressures they're seeing
so, you know, that will go the way of where we think the inflationary environment is headed. >> vehicle toia, final word. what is your top sector pick for the rest of this year? >> well, we just bought oracle we really like that space, because we do think going forward it's not going to be every name in every space is going to work. you'll have to do your fundamental work and be choosey. you're looking at a company with a lower p.e., so we they it will do well even in a rising rate environment. but we also like financials. no us it's mastercard. there's longer-term growth available there really pick your names. don't go all in in one sector for the rest much the year. >> thank you good to see you both
let's send it back over to mike santoli for a closer look at the jobs number >> sara, you look below the surface to the employment-to-population ratio all adults, that's the bottom number, this is what's called prime age, 25 to 54 years. that's the core. the fed mike looking to see how much slack remains in the labor
market, whether it's operating more tightly this has come back pretty quickly. we've had a lot of retirements, thick like that. you see improvement in employment in that age category. that tills you misthat's coming back fast. it really just took a long time to grind its way higher. so this is good news, but it shows you still plenty of room to go. this shows you week. the yield curve, treasury yield curve, is sensitive to this. if the labor market seems tight, if they look grudging, and they're underperforming, just when the ultimate job totals are going to be once we get back to what is called maximum employment we had the steepening moves, and
sort of symptom a big short here so obviously for all the technical reasons we've been talking about, there's been a lot of compression, but if you're bullish on the economy, you would want to see it go back up you don't want it necessarily a peak in the yield curve. >> going back to the first job, you also look at it and say it doesn't warrant the loosist policy of all time. >> that's a fair point, wilf the weigh the phet thinking about these things, the policy wet in play are the ones we're going to stick with until we see a reason -- as long as we're still short of our targets -- this fed does not want to be proactive and pull things away so it's absolutely right we might be on a glad path.
maybe this is months all when we're really going to have to come down to a decision. yes, i'm still considered prime age for a little while longer, guys. >> you'll always be in your prime. >> what is the top of the prime age -- what is it, 55? >> 54. >> 54. for more on the economic landscape, let's bring some marc short. >> thanks for having me on this afternoon. >> let's talk broadly whether more stimulus is warranted infrastructure spend, still warranted? >> you know, wilf, i think it was a great deal jobs report it's hard to argue we need more stimulus if anything, we need to begin pulling some of it off, not just from a monetary policy, but also
candidly, the continue ways of these extraordinarily generous benefits is i think discouraging an even healthiest employment market. >> even if it is targeted to areas lie infrastructure >> i think that's a huge if. you look at these proposals, and they use the broad term of infrastructure, but it's supporting all other programs that aren't roads, bridges, highways the latest so-called bipartisan bill is only 10%, and it funds a lot of other goodwill projects that i think are a wish list of many of the most progressive parts of the democrat party. i can see there's plenty of places that would benefit from infrastructure spending if it was truly targeted for that. instead, it seems they know there's a public interest infrastructure, so we'll call it
infrastructure and throw everything under it. >> but it also does improve infrastructure i looked at it, marc, and putle two bills together and cumulative it would add more than five percentage points to gdp and continued to add beyond the next decade, and also boost our productivity wouldn't you be in favor of pro-growth policies? >> if you can get that i guess i'm a skeptic on that, particularly if you say the way to fund that is ultimately trillions of tax dollars, which i think would spur job loss. if you begin to increase the tax rates, i think you'll push jobs overseas sara, of course, those numbers sound rosy i would be a skeptic, and i believe the question is at what cost do you get those ben fits >> i wanted to ask you about china at the end of a week where
weaver seen strong words from president xi, ongoing discussion about human rights abuses of do you feel vindicated for the trump administration as stance on china, but at the same time not seizing the opportunities to clamp down harder? i think it's fair to say china was stronger at the end of your four years than at the start >> wilf, i'm not sure about that i do think one of the achievements of the administration was a change in the national discourse on china. i think, you know, roughly 30 years ago it was in facts the republican party that said, looking if we can extend free parks it will lead to other reforms. we haven't seen that in fact, i think you have seen a continued persecution of the we'll we'll uighurs, and even boxed in
the administration about how they talk about china. so i think it awakened a lot of americans to the dangers in the adversary we have in china. >> the trump organization and cfo have been charged with tax and financial fraud in a case that a lot of people think could ultimately bring down the trump organization do you think this will hurt the former president politically or financially? >> sara, i don't have any insight into the trump organization's finances. i guess the question, if fluorlegitimate charges, then of course, but at the same time if it ends up they're going after the cfo in an effort to get to the president, and many americans believe it's more of a political witch-hunt, i think it could bolster the president. frankly i don't have insight into their intern finance circumstances. >> thank you for joining us.
>> thanks for having me. brian? >> no. in fact, the news alert is there won't be any news at least today. sara and wilf, the virtual meeting has adjourned for the second day with no deal on output or production in the next few months from opec the sticking point, as we reported all day last night, they had a deal basically raised from now until either december or earlier into next year. in the 11th hour, the uae said, no, no, no, we want to change our baseline that's a fancy way of saying they want to produce more oil. the two sides, opec on one side, uae and maybe a little of mexico over here on the other side, but that was enough to hold out. there was no deal made they have adjourned under monday 9:00 a.m. eastern time here's why you care. we didn't see a big moves in the oil market today, but there's
only three possible outcomes number one, they reach a deal, raise production, that's what the market expects option two is there's no new deal, they go back to the old deal, which means no new barrels, in rising demand, that means oil prices could spike, gasoline surprises could spike option three, the nuclear option, that would be, guess what no new deal and the uae maybe goes its own way i'm not saying it breaks up or leaves opec, but certainly this could see we're going to do what them, opec, you do what you you want there's a small chance that happened, not a lot, but it's not zero guys, you heard today, jen psaki today saying the white house is concerned. it could be likely we'll see higher oil and higher gasoline prices in the weeks and months hail just another day at the office
shares of disney falling, on the report of the information say dis new plus u.s. subscriber growth slowed sharply in the first half the stock has closed about flat. the disney spokesperson sa saying -- jessica, how bad was it what did you learn >> the real thing to understand about disney plus is their growth in north america, which is the most important market right now is almost flat they had about 38 million
subscribers in north america, up from around 37 million in february, so that's suggesting very slow growth that's something they'll have to deal with. >> so just remind us what they release each quash, which was novemberly not a far way off, and what you're expecting. you're saying it's still growing in other regions >> yes disney doesn't break out its regional, so we don't know until we see internal data so they're -- they had a little more than 110 million total subscribers in late fiscal third. a lot of their growth, is coming out of india in india, which has around 38 million subscribers, they have seen some growth, but the issue is, in india, the price for disney plus is only around 45
cents compared to the united states, where the price is around $8. while they might be growing quickly in india, the issue is that the revenue per user there is obviously much lower. that will be a challenge for disney. >> the broader point you raise is how widespread the appeal is. it's grown so fast in fact all the comparisons is that it grew can be it took less time to get to the netflix-type numbers, but the question is, now what, right? and does it have the long-lasting appeal that netflix is having? >> that is the real question thing about all the people who signed up for disney plus. many signed up before the service even launched. it's disney, marvel, "star wars", mickey mouse, all brands who have loyalists, so they auld signed up pretty much within the
first year the question is, disney will have to figure out how do we attract beyond our core audience, and how do we get more 20-year-olds we need to start creating more content and doing thing faster i know it's been a constant concern, and how did we widen our purview to get more people in. >> jessica, thanks for joining us thanks so much >> disney ending the day, basically flat, volume. still ahead, the ceo of spirits suntory, which owns the jim beam, and hibeki. >> i love japanese whiskey >> i thought urn you were going weigh in quicker >> i love it we'll be right back.
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manhattan's first black district attorney after his leading opponent conceded. 400,000 are in famine. aid efforts will be harder after a key bridge in the region was destroyed yesterday. the pacific northwest, the death toll from the record-breaking heat wave is expected to keep rising. the organ state medical examiner says at least 78 have died from the extreme weather. and tonight on the news, boise, idaho still suffering from triple-digit temperatures another heat wave is possible next we'll we'll have more at 7:00, when i fill in for shepard smith. rahel, thank you. a tesla modding s-plaid burst into flames as the driver
was driving it the driver was initially not able to get out of the cars as the lox malfunctioned. he had to force his way through the door to escape according to the lower marion fire, copious amounts of water were poured on the vehicle for over two hours in order to extinguish the fire. we have reached out for comment from tesla the driver's attorney, mark geragos was supposed to join us, but canceled on the last minute. phil lebeau las the latest details they say the driver was driving along, when he noticed smoke. according to mark geragos, he couldn't open the door,
eventually was able to get out of the car the fact there was not a crash involved is significant. many of the stories that we have reported on and others have reported on over the l.a. year and a half, two years have involved teslas where they burst into flames following an accident obvious it's bake the battery pack has punctured in some fashion. this crash raises the question that there was some type 6 a software malfunction that caused this fire, but it certainly is a question that's come up. wet would love to tact to the driver i know mark geragos was supposed to be on the air what with us, but we would love to talk to the driver
>> i think they get more attention, for a couple reasons. one, you have these reports, whether it's the fire department or log press, where they say a model s or model 3, whatever model it might be, and it burst into flames and the flams are all over in the case in houston in the fatalities you had the fire department saying, yeah, there was nobody behind the steering wheel, so there was somebody in the backseat were they trying to make the autopilot function tell la fans do have a point when they say there's too much coverage about these fires, because, if you look at tesla fires, relative to the number of vehicle fires, especially with internal combustion vehicles, it's a very, very small percentage, yet they get most of the attention. >> gere ago has said in previous
suntory holdings announcing today by 2022, it's targeting 100% renewable energy. such as this water plant in nagano, japan, up to 30% currently. joining us is the ceo. how big of a lift is this getting to 100%? what does it involve in. >> it means a lot of technology and investment to 2022, as well as 2030, and we have ba bold mission to completely reduce the carbon emissions by 2050, so this is a middle point to go to
carbon neutrality. we have to buy the products from energy supplier, we have to have the on-side, as much as $10 billion by 2030. so a huge move for us. >> where does this put you relative to some of your competitors? do you think you get credit for these efforts? >> yes, that's right. >> we think that the consumers, society, and our employees to be more aware of this importance and a bolder decision. that's quite important. >> what's your outlook for --
and do you think people will drink different types of drink relative to the past year, where clearly spirit sales have done somewhat surprisingly well as more have drunk more of it at h home. >> the trend hasn't changed from the, you know, the home consumption during the up and down time, now more and more premium products, but overjawed the premium products haven't changed. huge businesses with the restaurants and bars, and i'm sure the vaccine has been a game changer. >> while we have sudden, i know you are an economic adviser to
the prime minister for the olympics, and it's all eyes on japan with the slow are roll-out of the vaccine what will this be like >> we have only three weeks left and more athletes are rich there's no doubt that the games will be held as scheduled. but in tokyo, we are under this quasi -- situation, because new cases have been increasing having said that, i think that the government and the organizers are putting testingty airport very strictly and creating a safety bubble for athletes and staff members third, strict rules are given to the athletes and the staff, not to get out from the bubble so i think everything will be ready, but i'm still concerned about the spreading in tokyo
so the organizer and government may have to declare no spectators >> thank you very much for the update and the chance to highlight some of the efforts you are making still to come, hitting the skids. shares of diditaking a tumble just two days after a market debut. what ts ulhicod mean for the stock ahead. "closing bell" is back in a couple
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news of a chinese skcyber security review. we have more hi, eunice >> they plan to fully cooperate with the investigation where regulators say is meant to guard against national data security risks, uphold public interests and protect national security. that last point is the most important because it is really being interpreted as a sign that this probe is serious because the authorities, specifically site the national security log for the review, the company will
no longer be able to register new users. that move is being viewed here as immaterial in the short term because didi is so large, already dominating the hide hailing market it could become an issue if the investigation drags on the big question has been about the timing of this probe just days after the ipo, the company, the regulator itself hasn't explained this came as a big surprise to many within the tech community here but one popular theory is that beijing might not have been so happy that the ipo came so close to the hundredth birthday of the chinese communist party and the company did not have a listing ceremony, which is unusual. guys >> that said, obviously, as you're saying it came as a big surprise and it feels like it
came soon after they had the moment and takes the glass off that i totally get all that it didn't come a couple of days earlier which may have derailed the ipo. you can kind of split the difference to how calculated the government has been to try to hurt didi or not >> absolutely. >> the backdrop of all this is the chinese government is looking to try to crackdown on the big tech companies here to make sure that they uphold their end of the bargain to protect a skunler dat-- consumer data and privacy. that's what beijing wants. it could have come earlier as well which would have really been a disaster for didi but i think the lack of clarity here just is another sign and really tells you that investing in chinese companies is always have a dynamic.
>> that's one of the risks going in why is the party going after some of its biggest and best technology companies wouldn't they want these companies to grow and be dominant and be global so china can flex its muscle off over the world. why are they cracking down >> the government says they do want that. they want to have their private companies flourish they want to see a huge growth of jobs. they want to welcome a lot of private companies that are foreign as well to come into the country because they understand the value of that. at the same time, they say that officially, they want to be able to improve the standards in a lot of industries which they see as unregulated as growth industries where the authorities and regular larts are trying to catch up the government says that's what they want but privately, there are a lot of businesses here who also think that one of the motivations is that the authorities feel like they want
to make sure that the private industry is under control because the larger picture is that president xi jingping is showing he wants control over private as well as state companies. >> thank you very much it's good to talk to you so early in beijing up next, it's the end of an era at amazon. founder jeff bezos is stepping down as officially handing the reigns over monday what this might mean for the future othe mpf coany and the stock when closing bell comes right back as your broker, i've solved it. that's great, carl. but we need something better. that's easily adjustable has no penalties or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool... i mean,
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ho ho, yeah! need worker's comp insurance? get a quote in 3 minutes at easyaspie.com. looking ahead to next week, a changing of the guard at amazon andy jassy officially taking over as ceo of amazon on monday. monday, july 5th holds special significance amazon was incorporated 27 years ago on the very same day back in 1994 current ceo jeff bezos transitioning to executive chairman and he's expected to dedicate more of his time to the bezos earth fund, other initiatives and we know he's going to space
amazon is granting jassy over 200 million in stock that will divest in ten years. investors don't seem to mind it's at highs. >> it's at high. >> lately it's had spurts. >> it's really weakening it has speds higher but it's remarkable the culture is so deep and so well known all of his writings are studied and scrutinized. you have a founder ceo leaving after 28 years
>> he's always been good about saying he keeps a manageable schedule he gets sleep. he doesn't have early meetings it's been on a slow transition stretch. >> either way we finished the week with a trifecta of record cloe closings >> happy fourth. life in the nasdaq markets overlooking new york stime square this is "fast money. a record rally closing out the week on dow. didi hitting the skids days after going public who is really the driver seat thon trade lords town motors tanking today. we'll bring you the big headline